We study the effect of perceived input uncertainty about critical minerals on firm performance, separating second-moment risk from first-moment shocks and general firm-level uncertainty. Using earnings call transcripts matched to financial data for listed firms worldwide, we construct text-based measures of mineral risk. Higher risk is robustly associated with lower revenue growth among downstream non-mining firms, consistent with firms behaving as if risk-averse and contracting output under uncertainty. Effects are larger for smaller firms, especially for thinly traded minerals including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. These findings suggest a new uncertainty channel in the green transition, with implications for stockpiling and price transparency.

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2 July 2026     Paper Number CEPDP2197

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This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Growth programme.