CEP | People | Rui Costa

Biography

Dr Rui Costa is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance and a Guest Lecturer in Economics at LSE. His research spans labour economics, crime and education. He received his PhD in Economics from University College London in 2018. He is also a Research Fellow at the Institute for the Future of Work (IFOW).

Current areas of research include:

Labour Economics: Wages, Human Capital and Inequality; Technological Change, Trade and Labour Markets; Minimum Wages and Worker and Firm Responses
Economics of Crime: Youth Crime, Education and Justice; Domestic Violence; Organised Crime and Criminal Networks

Publications

CEP discussion papers

Changing jobs: worker mobility and wages in the UK labour market

We study the role of job-to-job transitions in shaping wage dynamics in the United Kingdom. We show that job moves have continued to generate substantial wage gains for movers even during a period of real wage stagnation... Read more...

Pinjas Albagli, Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Andrew Eyles and Guglielmo Ventura

28 May 2026

CEP discussion papers

Sentencing severity, victim behaviour, and the prevention of domestic violence

Can harsher criminal sanctions reduce violence inside intimate relationships? We study Brazil?s 2015 Femicide Law, which reclassified femicide as a heinous crime and raised expected penalties for gender-based killings. U... Read more...

Rui Costa, Olivia Masi, Beatriz Ribeiro and Matteo Sandi

08 May 2026

CEP discussion papers

Minimum wages and the nature of work

When minimum wage increases impose a cost shock on employers of low wage workers, there are a variety of ways in which firms can adjust. Rather than study the main focal point of much minimum wage research, possible labo... Read more...

Pinjas Albagli, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

20 April 2026

CEP reports

Minimum wage effects: adjustment through labour market dynamics and alternative work arrangements

This report investigates the UK's 2016 National Living Wage (NLW) introduction, focusing on firm adjustment through labour market transitions and job contract amendments. The NLW boosted worker wages, and whilst there wa... Read more...

Pinjas Albagli, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

04 February 2025

Journal article

New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of a... Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

01 November 2024

External reports

Old Skills, New Skills - what is changing in the UK labour market?

The UK, along with other industrial countries, is experiencing rapid technological change associated with robotics and artificial intelligence, precipitating significant transformations in terms of how work is organised,... Read more...

Rui Costa, Christopher A. Pissarides and Bertha Rohenkohl

21 February 2024

External reports

Learning to grow: how to situate a skills strategy in an economic strategy

Investing in human capital is a crucial aspect of building an economy that is both more productive and fairer, and any growth strategy must incorporate an agenda for increasing human capital and workforce skills within t... Read more...

Rui Costa, Sandra McNally, Louise Murphy, Christopher A. Pissarides, Bertha Rohenkohl, Anna Valero and Guglielmo Ventura

24 October 2023

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

Improving the lives of low-paid workers

The ramping up of the national minimum wage since 2015 has more than halved the share of low-paid employees in Britain. But it is far from job done: too few low-paying jobs offer dignity, respect and security to the peop... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Charlie McCurdy and Gregory Thwaites

20 June 2023

External reports

Low pay Britain 2023

After a decade and a half of relative economic decline, Britain needs a new economic strategy. This paper considers what it would mean to put good work centre stage. It requires us to go far beyond the narrow focus this ... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Charlie McCurdy and Gregory Thwaites

19 April 2023

Blog

Train in vain? Skills, tasks, and training in the UK labour market

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt pledged that measures in the budget would help break down barriers that stop people working. One issue is how to ensure we have the skills the economy needs. Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Andrew Eyles,... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Andrew Eyles, Kathleen Henehan and Sandra McNally

16 March 2023

Blog

Automation creates the space for entirely new jobs: the UK must adopt, adapt and improve

Fears about robots taking people's jobs are overplayed, say Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu. Their research shows the real fear to overcome should be Britain's lack of productivity-enhancing robots, software, artificial intell... Read more...

Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu

27 February 2023

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

Adopt, adapt and improve

Fears about robots taking people?s jobs are overplayed, say Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu. Their Economy 2030 Inquiry briefing shows the real fear to overcome should be Britain?s lack of productivity-enhancing robots, softwa... Read more...

Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu

21 February 2023

CEP discussion papers

New dawn fades: trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the very large exchange rate depreciation occurring in June 2016 due to the UK electorate unexpectedly voting to leave the European Union. As news of a leave vote came in, the value of ... Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

07 December 2022

External reports

Train in vain?

Human capital and skills are important for improving the UK's labour market and economic performance. This note assesses how the skills needed in the UK labour market have changed over past decades, and how well placed o... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Andrew Eyles, Kathleen Henehan and Sandra McNally

05 December 2022

External reports

Adopt, adapt and improve

Worries that jobs will be lost to automation are not new, but have been heightened since the release of Frey and Osborne's 2013 study, which warned that nearly half of jobs in the US were at 'high risk' of automation. Ne... Read more...

Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu

10 November 2022

Blog

Low pay and insecurity in the UK labour market

Minimum wage increases have driven down the incidence of low hourly pay, but there has been much less progress elsewhere for low earners. Low pay is widespread among the self-employed, who do not benefit from the minimum... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta and Felicia Odamtten

22 June 2022

External reports

Low pay Britain 2022

This edition of Low Pay Britain is the Resolution Foundation's twelfth annual report taking stock of the state of low pay. Recent editions have focused on the short-term impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on low paid workers... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta and Felicia Odamtten

25 May 2022

Journal article

Why does education reduce crime?

We provide a unifying empirical framework to study why crime reductions occurred due to a sequence of state-level dropout age reforms enacted between 1980 and 2010 in the United States. Because the reforms changed the sh... Read more...

Brian Bell, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

01 March 2022

External reports

Changing jobs?

This report is about the nature and speed of change in the UK's labour market, about how past periods of rapid change have happened, and about workers' experiences as they have lived through these changes. It is written ... Read more...

Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Andrew Eyles, Tzvetan Moev and Guglielmo Ventura

06 January 2022

External reports

IZA Covid-19 crisis response monitoring: United Kingdom

On the 23rd of March, the United Kingdom locked down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, the UK economy suffered the biggest contraction of economic activity in 41 years, experiencing a 21.5% year-on-year... Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

01 January 2021

CEP election analysis papers

The labour market

The UK labour market, at first glance, seems to be playing at Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Employment (in terms of both levels and rates) is at record highs, yet wage growth has been extraordinarily weak. One view is that thes... Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

21 November 2019

Blog

New dawn fades: The post-referendum rise in import costs has hurt UK workers

Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship between international trade and w... Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

01 October 2019

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

Trade and deskilling: how the post-referendum sterling depreciation hurt workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of sterling, had a sizable negative impact on UK workers. New CEP work by Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin shows that the ... Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

01 July 2019

CEP discussion papers

Trade and worker deskilling

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which t... Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP Brexit analysis Papers

Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain?s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri... Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP discussion papers

Why does education reduce crime?

Prior research shows reduced criminality to be a beneficial consequence of education policies that raise the school leaving age. This paper studies how crime reductions occurred in a sequence of state-level dropout age r... Read more...

Brian Bell, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

24 August 2018

CEP industrial strategy

Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

It is now widely recognised that human capital accumulation and research and development (R&D) are key drivers of economic growth, as is documented in most standard textbooks (e.g. Acemoglu, 2007; Romer, 1996). Estimates... Read more...

Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta, Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally

28 March 2018

CVER Briefing Note

Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

CEP election analysis papers

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers? real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by... Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

19 May 2017

CEP real wages updates

The Return of Falling Real Wages

The falling real wages experienced by most UK workers between 2008 and 2014 were followed by modest growth in 2015 and 2016. But it has now reversed back as real wages have once again started to fall. This is courtesy of... Read more...

David Blanchflower, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

12 May 2017

Journal article

Crime, compulsory schooling laws and education

Do compulsory schooling laws reduce crime? Previous evidence for the US from the 1960s and 1970s suggests they do, primarily working through their effect on educational attainment to generate a causal impact on crime. In... Read more...

Brian Bell, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

01 October 2016

CEP discussion papers

Crime, compulsory schooling laws and education

Do compulsory schooling laws reduce crime? Previous evidence for the U.S. from the 1960s and 1970s suggests they do, primarily working through their effect on educational attainment to generate a causal impact on crime. ... Read more...

Brian Bell, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

01 October 2015