CEP | People | Josh De Lyon

Biography

Josh De Lyon is an economist at the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Division of the OECD. He is a DPhil in Economics Candidate at University of Oxford and an associate at the Centre for Economic Performance. In 2021, he was International Economics PhD Fellow at Dartmouth College. His research mainly studies the impact of globalisation on economic performance of firms and workers. He also works on the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and, in particular, the role of corporate taxation and “Phantom FDI”. Finally, he is working on the interactions of productivity and green technologies.

Current areas of research include:

Globalisation and labour markets: Effects of services trade, import competition and foreign ownership on wage and employment outcomes; Determinants of regional variation in services trade; Implications of services trade for regional inequality.
Trade policy: Non-tariff barriers; Services clauses in trade agreements

Publications

CEP Brexit analysis Papers

Brexit and consumer food prices: May 2023 update

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation an... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Richard Davies and Josh De Lyon

24 May 2023

CEP discussion papers

Non-tariff barriers and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit

Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) are the main policy impediment to international trade, yet little is known about their pass-through to prices. This paper exploits the Brexit trade policy shock to quantify how NTBs affect cons... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Richard Davies and Josh De Lyon

01 December 2022

Blog

The UK must recognise its enduring economic strengths

A decade of stagnant living standards, weak productivity and low investment combined with a coming decade of major change - driven by Covid-19, Brexit and the need for accelerated action on Net Zero - mean that it is cru... Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Ralf Martin, Juliana Oliveira-Cunha, Arjun Shah, Krishan Shah, Gregory Thwaites and Anna Valero

25 August 2022

External publications

The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

This eBook, produced by VoxEU/CEPR and UK in a Changing Europe, brings together leading academic researchers on trade, immigration and political economy to assess what we have learned, 18 months on from its implementatio... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Luisa Opitz, Thomas Prayer, Thomas Sampson and Dilan Yang

24 June 2022

Chapter

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

How Brexit has raised UK food prices

Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving th... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang

21 June 2022

External publications

Enduring strengths

A decade of stagnant living standards, weak productivity and low investment combined with a coming decade of major change - driven by Covid-19, Brexit and Net Zero - mean that it is crucial for the UK to renew its econom... Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Ralf Martin, Juliana Oliveira-Cunha, Arjun Shah, Krishan Shah, Gregory Thwaites and Anna Valero

28 April 2022

External publications

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK's departure from the Single Market and Customs Union at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bak... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang

27 April 2022

Blog

Labour shortages have become widespread - this is how firms are responding

The majority of firms saw business grow between April and October 2021, after the shocks of Covid-19 and Brexit in 2020. But a new analysis by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon into firms' experiences and expectations for t... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

15 December 2021

CEP Covid-19 analyses

Real-time updates on the UK economy: trends, expectations and implications from business survey data

Covid-19 has caused substantial shocks to the UK economy, highlighting a need for real-time data to analyse trends. We use monthly business survey data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to document recent ... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

15 December 2021

External publications

Trading places

This briefing note is the launch paper for the Brexit research theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. I... Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra, Sophie Hale and James Smith

14 October 2021

CEP Covid-19 analyses

The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021

We use real-time firm survey data to describe trends in the UK economy in early 2021. As of April 2021, business activity and expectations for the future have improved. However, real wage growth is down and firms are rep... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

06 May 2021

Journal article

Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: The UK-China case

We exploit the recent surge in Chinese export growth to study the effects of a trade shock on workers and firms in a foreign market, the UK, in the period 2000–2007. We find that individuals initially employed in sectors... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Joao Paulo Pessoa

01 April 2021

Blog

To recover from Covid and Brexit, the UK must upskill its workforce

The twin forces of Covid-19 and Brexit are altering the skills that people require to succeed in work. Skill levels remain low in the UK, compared to other advanced nations. About 30% of adults have low skill levels in l... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

23 February 2021

CEP discussion papers

Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: The UK-China case

We exploit the recent surge in Chinese export growth to study the effects of a trade shock on workers and firms in a foreign market, the UK, in the period 2000-2007. We find that individuals initially employed in sectors... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Joao Paulo Pessoa

11 January 2021

Blog

Covid-19 has disrupted businesses' ability to prepare for Brexit, but the lack of clarity on the UK-EU relationship is worse

Almost half of businesses report that COVID-19 has negatively affected their ability to prepare for Brexit. More than half listed uncertainty on the future arrangements between the UK and EU as a limitation on their abil... Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Edoardo Tolva

07 December 2020

Blog

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Nikhil Datta, Jan Bakker, Elitsa Garnizova & Josh De-Lyon show how consumers in the UK are highly dependent on products originating in the EU, where 40 percent of all consumption of food products in the UK comes from EU ... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon and Elitsa Garnizova

01 September 2020

External publications

Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit

Arla Foods UK has commissioned LSE Consulting's Trade Policy Hub to deliver a study on the vulnerabilities of supply chains in the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit. This study provides a follow up to th... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon and Elitsa Garnizova

01 September 2020

CEP Covid-19 analyses

Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-time updates on business performance in the United Kingdom

Nearly four months have passed since the UK went into lockdown to restrict the spread of Covid-19. The health effects have been severe, and an inevitable consequence of the lockdown was a huge 20 per cent decline in GDP ... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

29 July 2020

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

Covid-19 and Brexit: contrasting sectoral effects

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra show that the UK sectors suffering less during lockdown are those most exposed to damage from leaving the European Union.... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

15 July 2020

Blog

Parts of the economy less hit by the pandemic are exposed to bigger negative impacts from Brexit

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK has been continuing its preparations to leave the EU by the end of 2020. COVID-19 has had a huge negative impact on the UK economy and Brexit will present another profound change in ... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

23 June 2020

Blog

How is Covid-19 affecting businesses in the UK?

The Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown have highlighted the need for real-time data to understand the spread of the disease, identify vulnerable groups and design policies to mitigate the health and economic fallout of the c... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

07 May 2020

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

In brief...Globalisation and its discontents

CEP's Trade Week brought together researchers and policy-makers to discuss the recent trend towards protectionism, its causes and directions for future policy. Josh De Lyon and Elsa Leromain report.... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Elsa Leromain

01 July 2019

CEP Brexit analysis Papers

Economic performance since the EU referendum

The impact of the Brexit vote can now begin to be evaluated with greater accuracy than previous forecasts, thanks to the emergence of new data. In the run-up to the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union (EU... Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

21 March 2019

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices

Following last year’s referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, there has been a significant rise in consumer prices, particularly food prices. Rising prices coupled with limited increases in nominal wages... Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

01 November 2017