Skip to main content
The high level of uncertainty is measurable. A 2016 study by Scott Baker of Northwestern University, Nick Bloom of Stanford University, and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago, quantified political uncertainty in t... Read more...
25 August 2019
A detailed assessment of what the government must address in its Brexit white paper has been carried out by academic think tank The UK in a Changing Europe. The report – The Brexit w... Read more...
09 July 2018
Since Trump was elected president, many measures of policy uncertainty have jumped. Take the widely used monthly U.S. Policy Uncertainty Index created by the economists Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven ... Read more...
07 May 2018
Article by Thomas Sampson. The full economic consequences of Brexit will not be realised for many years. But 21 months after the referendum, we can start to assess how the Brexit vote ha... Read more...
05 April 2018
Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom and his cohort analyzed the federal revenue data from the late 1970s to 2013 and found that the gap has shrunk to 20%. Professor Bloom said: "The big pay has existed for ... Read more...
18 January 2018
The average British household is already worse off than it was before the Brexit vote. Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson discuss how much of the rise in inflation is due to Brexit. Higher prices are costing the a... Read more...
08 January 2018
According to the calculations of the Center for Economic Performance (CEP), Brexit will significantly affect inflation, the national currency rate, as well as the income level of the British and the overall qu... Read more...
07 January 2018
AREPORT written by a Welsh political consultant for a thinktank set up by Tony Blair paints a bleak picture of a post-Brexit future. Dafydd Rees, who has held senior positions with the BBC, Sky and Bloomberg, ... Read more...
05 January 2018
Executive summary: This document sets out some of the key things we have learnt since the referendum. These include: The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded UK growth expectations for the ... Read more...
04 January 2018
The following information was released by the Office of Tony Blair: Executive summary The Centre for Economic Performance says that the Brexit vote has cost the average household 404 a year. ... Read more...
03 January 2018
The latest forecasts from major London economic research houses seem to provoke pensive respondents. The renowned London Economics University, a study by the London School of Economics (CEP), has shown that th... Read more...
01 January 2018
The London School of Economics has estimated that failing to agree a trade deal could cost the UK economy up to £430 billion over five years. ... Read more...
Large London think tanks have also drawn attention to the real wage erosion in Great Britain. The recent London-based Economics Research Center (CEP), the London-based Economics University of London, has shown... Read more...
29 December 2017
The recent study of the London School of Economics (CEP) in London has demonstrated with various model calculations that the unexpected market and real economy shock of a British EU member, who won a narrow ma... Read more...
A study published by the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics says the happiest age in human life, statistically, is 23 and 69 years. Based on data from 23,161 people aged 17 and 8... Read more...
28 December 2017
Brexit analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance recently found that the living standard of every income group in the UK would decrease after Brexit, with those on middle incomes suffering slightly mor... Read more...
22 December 2017
According to a study by the Financial Times, which analyzed a wide range of estimates and predictions, output in the UK is about 0.9% below the potential for remaining in the single market. In a complementary ... Read more...
20 December 2017
As the portal iz.ru wrote, according to calculations for the Center for Economic Performance, each British family will lose up to £404 per year because of Brexit. This is due to rising prices for consume... Read more...
19 December 2017
Everything paletti thus? Not quite. There is a loser, and that means Great Britain. It is becoming increasingly clear that Brexit was not a good idea, at least economically. Thomas Sampson and his colleagues f... Read more...
18 December 2017
Thomas Sampson and colleagues at the London School of Economics have examined the direct effect of sterling’s depreciation since the EU referendum on prices and living standards. With the pound falling a... Read more...
Business investment grew by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2017, this is down almost five-fold against official forecasts for growth drawn up in 2016. This economic downturn after Brexit has already cost... Read more...
FT research shows that the weekly hit to the British economy could be the same £350m that Leave campaigners promised to claw back Thomas Sampson and colleagues at the London School of Economics have e... Read more...
In June 2016, a referendum was held in Britain and the result was to withdraw from the EU. This opens the door to an experiment: what happens when an economy wants to reduce its globalization and lift its ties... Read more...
15 December 2017
In a study of the English Center for Economic Performance, published in late autumn, it is reported that only the fact of voting for England's withdrawal from the European Union has resulted in serious los... Read more...
11 December 2017
Thus, the report for the Center for Economic Performance shows that voting for exit from the EU "was an unforeseen shock for the UK economy," the researchers conclude. "Our results provide convi... Read more...
10 December 2017
Article by Thomas Sampson, Dennis Novy, Holger Breinlich and Elsa Leromain Most economists believe that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy in the long-run. But what about the short-term? How ha... Read more...
04 December 2017
A report by the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economics Performance earlier this month estimated that the Brexit-related spike in inflation in the UK had already cost the average UK household ar... Read more...
29 November 2017
Alison Thewliss MP (SNP), Shadow SNP spokesman for Cities and Treasury referred to the recent CEP report The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards estimate "that the average household has... Read more...
27 November 2017
Article by Thomas Sampson et al Most economists believe that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy in the long-run. But what about the short-term? How has the referendum affected households in the first yea... Read more...
The latest work by economists at the London School of Economics estimates that, if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal, the impact will be far more severe than the projections in the budget suggested. Th... Read more...
26 November 2017
… Dr Thomas Sampson, who co-authored the Centre for Economic Performance research, said: "Even before Brexit occurs, the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK household... Read more...
25 November 2017
Government sources said ministers would this week release sections of assessments into the potential economic impact of Brexit carried out across Whitehall, which until recently they had tried to keep secret. ... Read more...
According to the Center for Economic Performance Research Center (CEP), one of the main consequences of the vote on leaving the European Union was a marked decrease in the quality of life of British subjects. ... Read more...
24 November 2017
... according to new analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London ... ... Read more...
In the first detailed statistical analysis of how the referendum outcome has affected UK inflation, wages and living standards Thomas Sampson and his team show UK households are paying a high economic price fo... Read more...
The danger is not making a real difference to productivity when the country needs it the most, writes Anna Valero. Budget 2017 began with a bleak assessment of the UK’s growth prospects. For those of us ... Read more...
In support of this statement we can mention a recent investigation by a team of economists from the London School of Economics, directed by Richard Layard. The researchers analyzed data from surveys conducted ... Read more...
23 November 2017
In the referendum on British EU membership last June, a small, 51.9 percent majority of the participants voted out. The study, published on Monday by the prestigious London Economics University at London Schoo... Read more...
A statistical analysis on the consequences of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom was released on Monday, showing how the referendum outcome has affected inflation and living standards of people across the c... Read more...
Recently, the Center for Economic Performance (CEP), a local research center, recently released a survey according to which every British family, on average, loses 400 pounds sterling per year due to Brexit. ... Read more...
22 November 2017
“One of the guys who pays my wages has decided he’s pulling investment from the UK,” my private fund manager mate tells me on Sunday as we stand on the touchline, watching our kids play rugby... Read more...
Meanwhile, on the home front consumers have been fighting raging price increases thanks to the collapse in the value of the pound. The average household has lost £404 last year according to the Centre fo... Read more...
On 23 June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU. As soon as the result became clear, sterling depreciated sharply and, since the vote, UK inflation has dramatically increased. How much of the rise in inflat... Read more...
Dr Thomas Sampson, who co-authored the Centre for Economic Performance research, said: “Even before Brexit occurs, the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households. &ldqu... Read more...
20 November 2017
According to research conducted by the UK-based Centre for Economic Performance "By June 2017, the Brexit vote was costing the average household £7.74 per week through ... Read more...
Article by Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson. On 23 June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU. As soon as the result became clear, sterling depreciated sharply and, since the vote, ... Read more...
The first detailed statistical analysis of how the referendum outcome has affected UK inflation, wages and living standards shows UK households are paying a high economic price for the vote to leave the Europe... Read more...
While movements in global commodity markets helped raise inflation, price rises in the UK have outstripped those in other leading economies. By September 2017, prices were up 3 per cent over the past year comp... Read more...
13 November 2017
“The inflation figures are the most informative,” says Swati Dhingra, at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. She says the impact of broad uncertainty has been har... Read more...
A society in which poverty does not exist sounds utopian - this society is equal but unfair, so it risks collapse, argues Nicholas Bloom, a professor of economics at Stanford University. "People do not wo... Read more...
01 October 2017
Research shows that policy uncertainty can drive down business investment by six to 10.5 per cent. To see how the election created uncertainty in B.C., the Fraser Institute created a proxy measure using newspa... Read more...
31 August 2017
Uncertainty about a nation’s economic policies can influence both politics and financial markets, and the effects often spread beyond the country’s borders. Building on his research with Northweste... Read more...
14 August 2017
Research from the Bonn-based Institute of Labor Economics shows that the differences in individual workers’ pay since the 1970s is associated with pay differences between — not within — compa... Read more...
06 August 2017
Trump and Brexit are rapidly becoming the main threat to the upturn. Once the downturn begins, all fingers will point to them. But the real causes lie somewhere else: Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom points t... Read more...
18 July 2017
A recent study by Erling Bath, Alex Bryson, James Davis, and Richard Freeman showed that the diffusion of individual pay since the 1970s is associated with pay differences between, not within, companies. The S... Read more...
17 July 2017
In the world of business and economics, there’s a bit of a fixation on uncertainty. To start, there's the VIX, a measure of investor fear, that tracks expected volatility in the markets. But the... Read more...
12 July 2017
06 July 2017
The Impact Factor is the average number of times articles from the journal published in the past two years have been cited in the JCR year. The Impact Factor is calculated by dividing the number of citations i... Read more...
16 June 2017
Increases in policy uncertainty "foreshadow declines in investment, output and employment in the United States," according to the developers of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, professors Scott... Read more...
22 May 2017
On Monday, Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics told the Royal Economic Society annual conference that most academic economists had predicted a 1-3 per cent fall in economic output by five years aft... Read more...
10 April 2017
Then three economics and finance professors—Scott Baker of Northwestern University, Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago—created a series of Economic Poli... Read more...
05 March 2017
© The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Volume 50, Issue 1 Pages 1 - 132, March 2017 Observations on Uncertainty (pages 79–84) Nicholas Bl... Read more...
21 February 2017
Von anderen Star-Ökonomen waren eher pessimistische Stimmen zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung unter Trump zu hören. So sagt Stanford-Ökonom Nicholas Bloom, ... Related publications 'Meas... Read more...
14 February 2017
Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University) explores the political uncertainty in the world, and from 1900 on, he found out that after his election Trump increased uncertainty by at least twice and is comparable to t... Read more...
31 January 2017
A study of three researchers Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven j. Davis has revealed that the current economic uncertainty is still higher than during times of 9 / 11 or the Lehman collapse. The expert... Read more...
Not surprisingly, when an index for global political uncertainty, compiled records so unsafe level, inter alia by the Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, on a high, (Stanford). And Austria's foreign trade m... Read more...
27 January 2017
The cloud of uncertainty Trump has kicked up may be a big deal for the economy, or not. … For one thing, uncertainty isn’t necessarily bad. It simply means the distribution of possible outcomes&md... Read more...
26 January 2017
"It genuinely feels that the political uncertainty is very high," said Nicholas Bloom, Professor of Stanford and co-developer of the index of uncertainty. ... Read more...
24 January 2017
Investors should brace themselves for more profit warnings in 2017. This isn't simply because economic growth will slow this year: economists expect an expansion of only 1.2 per cent this year after 2 p... Read more...
04 January 2017
… "Uncertainty is a real risk," said economist Michael Strain, of the American Enterprise, a right-of-center think tank. "I'd be reluctant to start a business now, and if I had one, I... Read more...
15 November 2016
Nothing off the table in Brexit negotiations says Centre for Economic Performance's Swati Dhingra. This interview was broadcast by BBC Sheffield (Radio) on August 13, 2016 Link to broadcast here Related publicatio... Read more...
13 August 2016
Throughout the referendum campaign, experts raised serious, well-founded concerns about the potential for Brexit to cause serious economic harm. These went unanswered, because the Leave camp had no answers to offer. Inst... Read more...
10 August 2016
What is contraction that leads to uncertainty, or the opposite? Last year, as part of a working paper, the economists Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis built a rate of economic uncertainty (UPR, Economi... Read more...
29 July 2016
A feedback cycle has businesses cautious on investment and consumers unwilling to spend In a 2015 working paper, the economists Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis constructed Economic Policy Uncertainty... Read more...
21 July 2016
John Van Reenen, head of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said that Britain's Brexit decision will have both short-term and long-term consequences. ''There is a lot of uncertainty ab... Read more...
01 July 2016
In the months leading up to Britain's referendum on whether to leave the European Union, many economists warned over and over again that a ''Brexit'' could have awful ripple effects: Britain could lose its favorable acce... Read more...
27 June 2016
Meanwhile, Director of the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, John Van Reenen tell Brexit will give a significant impact in the short-term period. ''Impending situation where business refu... Read more...
FRIDAY was the day when international markets absorbed the shock of the British vote to leave the European Union; a vote that few investors had anticipated. But today, market focus shifted back to the places where the vo... Read more...
John Van Reenen, Professor at the London School of Economics, said on Friday in an interview issued by the American channel CNBC that the companies ''will not want to take investment decisions because they have uncertain... Read more...
26 June 2016
According to John Van Reenen, Director of the Center for Economic Performance who said: "the same phenomenon will occur as being ''dubious'' in a period when businesses don't like to take new decisions or new invest... Read more...
25 June 2016
In an interview to CNBC, John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics said the short-term impacts would be painful: ''You get a rabbit-in-the-headlights phenomenon wh... Read more...
The decision left the United Kingdom society of the European Union does indeed have fueled new uncertainty. ''Businessmen reluctant to take new decisions or affect investments, because of the uncertainty for the future,'... Read more...
24 June 2016
First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to i... Read more...
In crudest outlines, the panic that followed Britain's vote to quit the European Union traced the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, an event that turned an unfolding financial crisis into the bleakest economic downturn s... Read more...
''You're going to see in increase in consumer prices from Brexit and most of that is going to hit the middle income,'' Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at LSE's Department of Economics and Centre for Economic Performan... Read more...
Brexit: whatever happens, uncertainty is the only certainty Il LSE Centre for Economic Performance ha esaminato l'analisi economica del prof. Patrick Minford, celebre economista pro-Brexit, e l'ha bocciata senza appello... Read more...
23 June 2016
Few expect that Britain's departure from Europe will set off a full financial crisis like the one seen after the collapse of the investment banking giant Lehman Brothers in 2008. ... If no deal is struck, the rules of t... Read more...
By the end of the campaign, the heads of Britain's most respected economic think-tanks issued a joint statement, so worried were they that the message had failed to connect. Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal... Read more...
The Institute for Fiscal Studies, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Centre for Economic Performance have all predicted lower real wages in the event of Brexit, higher prices for goods and ser... Read more...
22 June 2016
A Leave vote in tomorrow's referendum would ''almost certainly make us financially worse off'' and could cut the UKs GDP by up to 8% - equivalent to £5,760 for every household in the country - a group of respecte... Read more...
Then there is the question of the effect on Britain's trade with other regions if it is no longer governed by agreements negotiated by the European Union. Eurosceptics assume those agreements dilute Britain's interests b... Read more...
17 June 2016
Stop everything! According to the OECD, the forum of economic reflection of developed countries, the United Kingdom would lose 5% of its GDP in the 15 years to come slamming the door of the European Union. Treasury, Brit... Read more...
01 June 2016
The UK will soon vote on whether to end its 43-year membership in the European Union. Opinion polls suggest the vote is too close to call, with the ''stay'' and ''leave'' side switching leads on a regular basis, and this... Read more...
19 May 2016
A UK exit from the EU would immediately hit confidence and raise uncertainty which would result in GDP being 3% lower by 2020, which equates to GBP 2200 per household. An OECD report released this morning states that suc... Read more...
28 April 2016
The Center for Economic Performance, at the London School of Economics, which sees itself neutral, says the worst-case scenario in the event of a vote to leave the bloc is a 6.3 percent to 9.5 percent reduction in G.D.P.... Read more...
02 April 2016
Political risk is back on the worry list for economists, with opinion polls increasingly suggesting neither of the two main parties will win an outright victory in May's general election. More than 60 per cent of 85 e... Read more...
01 January 2015
Low volatility doesn't cause markets to turn down; but it leaves them vulnerable to unexpected bad news. Nicholas Bloom, professor of finance at Stanford University puts it well: ''The fact that volatility is well below ... Read more...
08 July 2014
One measure of economic policy uncertainty - an index created by economists Steven Davis of the Chicago Booth School of Business and Scott Ross Baker and Nick Bloom of Stanford University - stood in December at its highe... Read more...
01 February 2013
As long as the macroeconomy is uncertain, the common wisdom says, business won't invest. And as long as business refrains from investing, "the economy contracts, generating a recession", according to a June art... Read more...
06 November 2012