CEP/STICERD Applications Seminars
Putting Quantitative Models to the Test: An Application to Trump's Trade War
Dave Donaldson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), joint with Rodrigo Adao and Arnaud Costinot
Monday 20 November 2023 12:00 - 13:30
SAL 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, Sir Arthur Lewis Building, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH
About this event
The primary motivation behind quantitative modeling in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general-equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As an illustration of how to use our IV-based goodness-of-fit measure in practice, we revisit the welfare consequences of Trump's trade war predicted by Fajgelbaum et al. (2020).
Participants are expected to adhere to the CEP Events Code of Conduct.
This event will take place in SAL 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, Sir Arthur Lewis Building, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH.The building is labelled SAL on the LSE campus map. You can also find us on Google Maps. For further information, go to contact us.
This series is part of the CEP's Labour Markets programme.