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Labour Markets Workshops

Predicting Long-term Unemployment Risk

Andreas Mueller (University of Texas at Austin), joint with Johannes Spinnewijn (LSE and CEP)


Tuesday 29 March 2022 12:55 - 14:00

This event is both online and in person

32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

About this event

This paper uses rich administrative and survey data from Sweden to study the predictability and determinants of long-term unemployment (LTU) risk. We use standard machine learning techniques to deal with issues related to over-fitting. We find substantial predictable heterogeneity in LTU risk, which suggests a high value for targeting unemployment policies at those who are most at risk of LTU. We also find that the value of targeting these policies decreases in recessions. At the same time, LTU risk is persistent over time and the gains from adjusting the predictive model over time are small.

This event will take place in 32L 2.04, 2nd Floor Conference Room, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH.

The building is labelled 32L on the map. Enter the building via Lincoln's Inn Fields.

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Labour Markets Workshops are part of the CEP's Labour Markets programme.