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Policing and Crime Workshop

Co-hosted with CLEAN - Bocconi University

Crime and Prices: Evidence From Thefts of Expensive Precious Metals

Stephen Machin (CEP, LSE), joint with Gerald Foong and Matteo Sandi


Wednesday 02 April 2025 15:00 - 16:00

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About this event

The core prediction that economic incentives matter for crime is examined in a novel way through study of thefts of expensive precious metals by car parts thieves stealing catalytic converters (“cats”). Catalytic converters are costly because they contain expensive precious metals like platinum, palladium and rhodium. Their widespread installation into cars in recent times for environmental reasons to reduce emissions and improving vehicle efficiency has generated ripe pickings for car part thieves. Using a unique dataset spanning 10 years, this paper examines the economic drivers and policy responses to catalytic converter thefts in the United States. There is strong evidence that the rising value of catalytic converters, driven by big increases in the prices of the precious metals contained in them, have acted as a significant driver of the huge rise in auto part thefts that has occurred over time. Moreover, cat thefts are disproportionately concentrated in counties with the presence of recycling establishments, where car part thieves have close proximity to better resale opportunities. The paper also studies the impact of recent U.S. policy reforms aimed directly at curbing catalytic converter theft. The reforms have had success in reducing theft rates in the counties with active recycling markets. The results underscore the importance of targeting localized economic incentives and crime dynamics when designing policies to deter property crimes that generate sizable economic returns and that have high economic and social costs.


Participants are expected to adhere to the CEP Events Code of Conduct.


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Policing and Crime Workshops are part of the CEP's Community Wellbeing programme and Policing and Crime Research Group.