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Emanuel Ornelas.

Emanuel Ornelas

Associate

Expertise: International trade

Email:
eaornelas@gmail.com
Connect:
Twitter
Website
Links:
CEP Trade
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

Biography

Emanuel Ornelas is a Professor at the Sao Paulo School of Economics-FGV and an Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society. Prior to FGV, he was an Associate Professor at the London School of Economics. Between 2010 and 2022, he was an Associate Editor of the Journal of International Economics. He has presented his research in over 250 professional conferences and academic institutions, in more than 30 different countries.

Current areas of research include:

  • Trade Policy The consequences of trade policy: the short- and long-run political consequences of trade liberalization; third-market effects of trade policies. "
  • Geoeconomics
  • The internationalization process of firms
  • Trade agreements

Publications

Journal article
The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)

We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil?s labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral empl... Read more...

Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda and Emanuel Ornelas

01 May 2026

CEP discussion papers
Trade liberalization and third-market effects

We study how the end of the quota system for textiles and clothing products in the American and European markets on January 1, 2005, affected China?s exports to third countries, where policy was unchanged. Using a differ... Read more...

Fabrice Defever and Emanuel Ornelas

02 April 2026

CEP discussion papers
Sustaining international rules in a multipolar world

We study the sustainability of international trading rules in a multipolar world. A rules-based equilibrium is shaped by three forces. A static temptation to exploit market power undermines cooperation, while two dynamic... Read more...

Cecilia Carvalho, Nicolas Goulart, Daniel Monte and Emanuel Ornelas

18 February 2026

CEP discussion papers
Equilibrium trade regimes: power- vs. rules-based

Members of the World Trade Organization are increasingly disregarding its rules, raising concerns about the future of the multilateral trading system. To analyze the sustainability of the rules-based trade regime, we dev... Read more...

Cecilia Carvalho, Daniel Monte and Emanuel Ornelas

22 October 2025

Blog
An alliance for open trade: How to counter Trump's tariffs

The US administration's latest threat to impose sweeping new tariffs on many of its closest allies signals a renewed embrace of aggressive unilateralism and misunderstood economics. This column argues that the only effec... Read more...

Keith Head, Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, Emanuel Ornelas and Moritz Schularick

27 July 2025

Blog
The US-China trade war created jobs (elsewhere)

In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as "the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country". This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to... Read more...

Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda and Emanuel Ornelas

09 June 2025

CEP discussion papers
The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)

We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil's labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of re... Read more...

Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda and Emanuel Ornelas

02 May 2025

Journal article
Labor unions and the electoral consequences of trade liberalization

We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened... Read more...

Pedro Molina Ogeda, Emanuel Ornelas and Rodrigo R. Soares

01 February 2025

Journal article
Political competition and the strategic adoption of free trade agreements

I study how political competition affects the feasibility of free trade agreements (FTAs). I show that the possibility of political turnover creates strategic motivations for the formation of FTAs. Specifically, a govern... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

20 December 2024

CEP discussion papers
Political competition and the strategic adoption of free trade agreements

I study how political competition affects the feasibility of free trade agreements (FTAs). I show that the possibility of political turnover creates strategic motivations for the formation of FTAs. Specifically, a govern... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

21 October 2024

Journal article
Was Covid-19 a game changer for the Tokyo and Beijing Olympics?

No, it was not. We do not find evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the distribution of medals in a systematic way. Countries that suffered a higher share of deaths due to the pandemic, or that imposed stricter l... Read more...

Xuepeng Liu, Emanuel Ornelas and Huimin Shi

25 August 2024

Blog
Trade liberalisation can weaken unions and reduce votes for the left

Intuitively, trade liberalisation should increase the appeal of left-wing parties that offer to protect workers with protectionist policies. Pedro Ogeda, Emanuel Ornelas and Rodrigo Soares use evidence from Brazil to sho... Read more...

Pedro Molina Ogeda, Emanuel Ornelas and Rodrigo R. Soares

04 February 2024

Journal article
The costs and benefits of rules of origin in modern free trade agreements

Rules of origin offer preferred market access for final goods whose inputs originate mostly within a free trade agreement. Governments often champion such rules for boosting investment. We use a property-rights framework... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and John L. Turner

01 January 2024

Journal article
Sequentially exporting products across countries

Exploiting disaggregated data on French exporters, we show that firms expand their product scope and geographical presence sequentially. This process of internationalization is uneven over time, exhibiting more volatilit... Read more...

Facundo Albornoz, Hector Calvo-Pardo, Gregory Corcos and Emanuel Ornelas

01 May 2023

Journal article
Intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins in trade agreements

We study how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically lower preferential margins when the bloc tak... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and Patricia Tovar

01 September 2022

CEP discussion papers
The costs and benefits of rules of origin in modern free trade agreements

We study the welfare impact of rules of origin in free trade agreements where final-good producers source customized inputs from suppliers within the trading bloc. We employ a property-rights framework that features hold... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and John L. Turner

31 August 2022

Journal article
The trade impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

Using a gravity-like approach, we study how COVID-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from China during 2020. We find that a country's own COVID-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its i... Read more...

Xuepeng Liu, Emanuel Ornelas and Huimin Shi

06 May 2022

CEP discussion papers
Labor unions and the electoral consequences of trade liberalization

We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened... Read more...

Pedro Molina Ogeda, Emanuel Ornelas and Rodrigo R. Soares

17 November 2021

CEP discussion papers
Intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins in trade agreements

We study, theoretically and empirically, how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins when they form Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically ... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and Patricia Tovar

01 September 2021

CEP discussion papers
Firm export responses to tariff hikes

We study how firms react to unexpected increases in import tariffs. We identify our results from a sudden removal of American preferential tariffs applied on Argentine imports under the Generalized System of Preferences,... Read more...

Facundo Albornoz, Irene Brambilla and Emanuel Ornelas

28 July 2021

Blog
Service offshoring and export experience

Trade in services is important but difficult to measure. This column introduces a new dataset that helps understand the contribution of services to global value chains and their role in the process of exporting goods. Fi... Read more...

Giuseppe Berlingieri, Luca Marcolin and Emanuel Ornelas

28 July 2021

Blog
The 2020 trade impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

Worldwide merchandise trade flows decreased significantly in 2020, as Covid-19 disrupted economic activity across the globe. This column analyses how various pandemic-related factors shaped international trade flows. Spe... Read more...

Xuepeng Liu, Emanuel Ornelas and Huimin Shi

09 June 2021

CEP discussion papers
Service offshoring and export experience

Service inputs are a key component of the costs of exporting, and contribute to explain the process of internationalization of firms. A new dataset on the participation of French firms in global value chains reveals that... Read more...

Giuseppe Berlingieri, Luca Marcolin and Emanuel Ornelas

03 June 2021

CEP discussion papers
Sequential exporting across countries and products

How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a c... Read more...

Facundo Albornoz, Hector Calvo-Pardo, Gregory Corcos and Emanuel Ornelas

02 June 2021

CEP discussion papers
The trade impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from China during 2020. We find that a country's own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its i... Read more...

Xuepeng Liu, Emanuel Ornelas and Huimin Shi

26 May 2021

Journal article
Preferential trade agreements and global sourcing

We develop a new framework to study the welfare consequences of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) under global sourcing, incomplete contracts and endogenous matching. We uncover several new channels through which PTAs... Read more...

Grant Bickwit, Emanuel Ornelas and John L. Turner

01 January 2021

Journal article
Lockdown 101: managing economic lockdowns in an epidemic

Countries worldwide have implemented lockdown measures to contain the covid-19 pandemic. After more than three months of restrictions to economic activities in many countries, the question has turned to the best ways to ... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

01 September 2020

Journal article
The not-so-generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences

We use an empirical gravity equation to study how non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), enacted mainly through the Generalized System of Preferences, affect the exports of the beneficiary nations. In line with existi... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and Marcos Ritel

01 July 2020

Journal article
Reopening Pandora's box in search of a WTO-compatible industrial policy? The Brazil-taxation dispute

We critically assess the Appellate Body (AB) report on the Brazil-Taxation dispute, taken to the World Trade Organisation by the European Union and Japan, and encompassing seven different Brazilian industrial programmes ... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and Laura Puccio

02 April 2020

CEP discussion papers
Reopening Pandora's box in search of a WTO-compatible industrial policy? The Brazil-taxation dispute

The Brazil-Taxation dispute concerns the complaints taken to the World Trade Organisation by the European Union and Japan against seven different Brazilian industrial subsidy programmes. One concerned the automotive sect... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and Laura Puccio

02 October 2019

CEP discussion papers
Preferential trade agreements and global sourcing

We study how a preferential trade agreement (PTA) affects international sourcing decisions, aggregate productivity and welfare under incomplete contracting and endogenous matching. Contract incompleteness implies underin... Read more...

Grant Bickwit, Emanuel Ornelas and John L. Turner

31 October 2018

CEP discussion papers
The not-so-generalized effects of the generalized system of preferences

We use an empirical gravity equation approach to study how nonreciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), enacted mainly through the Generalized System of Preferences, affect the exports of the beneficiary nations. In line wit... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and Marcos Ritel

02 October 2018

Journal article
The limits of political compromise: debt ceilings and political turnover

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political turnover in an economy where incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level due to rent-seeking motives. P... Read more...

Alexandre B. Cunha and Emanuel Ornelas

01 June 2018

CEP discussion papers
Special and differential treatment for developing countries

Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries (SDT) constitutes a central feature of the GATT/WTO system. Its formal goal is to foster export-led growth in developing countries. Its theoretical foundations ... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

11 March 2016

Journal article
Institutions and export dynamics

We study how contract enforcement and export experience shape firm export dynamics in an environment with incomplete information. We show that exporters start with higher volumes and sell for longer periods in countries ... Read more...

Luis Araujo, Giordano Mion and Emanuel Ornelas

01 January 2016

CEP discussion papers
Political competition and the limits of political compromise

We consider an economy where competing political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimum level. Parties cannot commit t... Read more...

Alexandre B. Cunha and Emanuel Ornelas

12 March 2014

CEP discussion papers
Free Trade Aggreements and the Consolidation of Democracy

We study the relationship between participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) and the sustainability of democracy. Our model shows that FTAs can critically reduce the incentive of authoritarian groups to seek power by ... Read more...

Xuepeng Liu and Emanuel Ornelas

22 January 2013

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance
Sequential exporting: how firms break into foreign markets

Many countries are looking to their export sectors as a source of future growth, but how do domestic companies make a success of selling their output abroad? Research by Emanuel Ornelas and colleagues finds evidence of '... Read more...

Facundo Albornoz, Hector Calvo-Pardo, Gregory Corcos and Emanuel Ornelas

16 February 2012

CEP discussion papers
Preferential Trade Agreements and the Labor Market

Labor market consequences are at the forefront of most debates on the merits of trade liberalization. Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have become the primary form of trade liberalization in most countries, and sever... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

24 January 2012

CEP discussion papers
Institutions and Export Dynamics

We study the role of contract enforcement in shaping the dynamics of international trade at the firm level. We develop a theoretical model to describe how agents build reputations to overcome the problems created by weak... Read more...

Luis Araujo, Giordano Mion and Emanuel Ornelas

24 January 2012

Government consultations
BIS - Trade white paper: call for evidence

Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

01 November 2010

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance
Regional trade agreements: blessing or burden?

There has been a proliferation of regional trade agreements around the world since the early 1990s. In a survey of the latest theoretical and empirical research on regionalism, Caroline Freund and Emanuel Ornelas ask whe... Read more...

Caroline Freund and Emanuel Ornelas

09 July 2010

CEP discussion papers
Sequential Exporting

Firms need to incur substantial sunk costs to break in foreign markets, yet many give up exporting shortly after their first experience, which typically involves very small sales. Conversely, other new exporters shoot up... Read more...

Facundo Albornoz, Hector Calvo-Pardo, Gregory Corcos and Emanuel Ornelas

01 March 2010

CEP discussion papers
Regional Trade Agreements

This paper reviews the theoretical and the empirical literature on regionalism. The formation of regional trade agreements has been, by far, the most popular form of reciprocal trade liberalization in the last fifteen ye... Read more...

Caroline Freund and Emanuel Ornelas

01 December 2009

CEP discussion papers
The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers

Using detailed data on trade and tariffs from 1992-2007, we examine how the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement has affected trade with non-members and external tariffs facing non-members. First, we examine the effect of preferen... Read more...

Hector Calvo-Pardo, Caroline Freund and Emanuel Ornelas

01 May 2009

CEP discussion papers
Protection and International Sourcing

We study the impact of import protection on relationship-specific investments, organizational choice and welfare. We show that a tariff on intermediate inputs can improve social welfare through mitigating hold-up problem... Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas and John L. Turner

01 December 2008

CEP discussion papers
Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization Towards Non-Members?

We examine the effect of regionalism on unilateral trade liberalization using industry-level data on applied MFN tariffs and bilateral preferences for ten Latin American countries from 1990 to 2001. We find that preferen... Read more...

Antoni Estevadeordal, Caroline Freund and Emanuel Ornelas

01 May 2008

CEP discussion papers
Trust-Based Trade

Weak enforcement of international contracts can substantially reduce international trade. We develop a model where agents build reputations to overcome the difficulties that this institutional failure causes in a context... Read more...

Luis Araujo and Emanuel Ornelas

01 August 2007

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