Exporter dynamics and partial-year effects
Andrew B. Bernard, Esther Ann Boler, Renzo Massari, Jose-Daniel Reyes and Daria Taglioni
Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down firstyear export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.
1 October 2017
American Economic Review 107(10) , pp.3211-3228, 2017
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141070
This Journal article is published under the centre's Trade programme.