Firms predict an AI productivity boom is coming

Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Bunn, Philip; Davis, Steven J.; Foster, Kevin M.; Jalca, Aaron; Meyer, Brent H.; Mizen, Paul; Navarrete, Michael; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Gregory; Wang, Ben Zhe; Yotzov, Ivan

Firms predict an AI productivity boom is coming

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Steven J. Davis, Kevin M. Foster, Aaron Jalca, Brent H. Meyer, Paul Mizen, Michael Navarrete, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites, Ben Zhe Wang and Ivan Yotzov

Comparable international survey data on artificial intelligence adoption by firms is still lacking. This column surveys over 5,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives from stratified firm samples across the US, UK, Germany and Australia. It shows that around 70% of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. Firms report little impact of AI over the last three years, with over 80% of firms reporting no impact on either employment or productivity. At the same time, firms forecast AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8%, and cut employment by 0.7% over the next three years.

12 March 2026

VoxEU

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/firms-predict-ai-productivity-boom-coming

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This publication comes under the following theme: Innovation drivers