Roads are often linked to deforestation in frontier settings, but their effects in managed forests are less well understood. We investigate the intensive-margin response of forest outcomes to roads using China?s 2000?2010 expressway rollout as the setting. We construct a unique panel from the National Forest Inventory covering over 18,000 geo-located plots with ground-based measures of standing timber volume, which capture tree-level outcomes that satellite-based measures typically miss. Using long differences and standard instrumental variables, we find that moving 10 km closer to an expressway increases timber volume by approximately 2%, with gains concentrated within 1?20 km of new roads. The implied biomass increase equals 217?552 million tons of CO2, comparable to Canada?s annual emissions at the upper bound. Mechanism evidence and a spatial equilibrium model show that improved downstream market access strengthens incentives for investment and specialization in forestry under strict forest land-use controls, highlighting a role for transport infrastructure in promoting sustainable growth.

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17 March 2026     Paper Number CEPDP2162

Download PDF - Green gains from connectivity: highway expansion and forest quality

This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Urban programme.