To what extent has the rise of clean energy technologies created new vulnerabilities in global supply chains? In this paper, I study the role of a new type of 'input uncertainty' associated with critical minerals that underpin the deployment of clean energy technologies. I combine firm-level performance data for publicly listed companies worldwide with textual information from quarterly earnings conference calls to construct text-based measures of firm-level mineral exposure, perceived risk, and sentiment. As a first result, my methodology is validated by the strong co-movement between these measures and commodity price signals, with exposure concentrated in clean-energy supply chain sectors but varying substantially within industries. In a second result, I find that perceived input uncertainty is associated with lower revenue growth among exposed firms, consistent with optimal output contraction predicted for risk-averse firms facing input price uncertainty. Finally, I produce text-based evidence on how firms respond to mineral price shocks, distinguishing between longer-run innovation responses - material substitution, content reduction, and circular economy adoption - and short-run operational measures. Overall, the results suggest a sector still managing rather than resolving its critical mineral exposure, consistent with the early stage of development of the clean-energy supply chain.

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3 November 2025     Paper Number CEPDP2133

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This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Growth programme, Green Transition programme.

This publication comes under the following theme: Technology adoption and diffusion, Green technology adoption and diffusion