How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This column uses firm-level customs data to study the impact of Brexit on UK goods trade. The authors find that in the short term, exit from the Single Market and Customs Union reduced worldwide UK exports by 6.4% and worldwide imports by at least 3.1%. Importers partly compensated for lower EU imports by sourcing more from outside the EU, while exports to non-EU countries were unaffected. Moreover, smaller firms suffered larger declines in trade with the EU, whereas the largest firms did not experience a fall in exports.

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7 April 2025

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Vox EU

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https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/deep-integration-and-trade-uk-firms-wake-brexit

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