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College attrition and the dynamics of information revelation

Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban M. Aucejo, Arnaud Maurel and Tyler Ransom


We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage points and by an additional 2 points without search frictions. Providing students with full information about their abilities would increase the college and white-collar wage premia while reducing the graduation gap by family income.


1 January 2025


Journal of Political Economy 133(1) 2025


DOI: 10.1086/732526

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/732526

This Journal article is published under the centre's Education programme.