This study explores the impacts of road improvements in a country characterized by "urbanization without growth". Our analysis reveals that, although road upgrades increase population growth, they do not significantly advance economic development and tend to worsen living conditions. Utilizing a combination of empirical evidence and a spatial equilibrium model, we identify that constrained industrial capacities and congestion from high population density limit the efficacy of road development policies in enhancing GDP and overall welfare. Our results also indicate that strategically targeting road placement in regions with higher economic productivity could yield better economic outcomes.

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12 December 2024     Paper Number CEPDP2062

Download PDF - Roads to development? Urbanization without growth in Zambia

This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Urban programme.