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Irish Times:
Only confidence evident in markets is that things will definitely get worse

12 August 2011

According to Stanford economics professor Nicholas Bloom, a US recession is almost unavoidable. He studied 16 previous “uncertainty shocks” (events like the Cuban missile crisis and the 9/11 attacks) and concluded that “large short-run recessions” invariably result. “When people are uncertain about the future, they wait and do nothing,” Bloom cautioned.

This article appeared in the Irish Times on August 12, 2011
Link to article

Related Publications
In brief: The recession will be over sooner than you think, in CentrePiece 13(3) Winter 2008/9, Nick Bloom and Max Floetotto
‘Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D’, Nicholas Bloom, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.792, May 2007
‘Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics’, Nicholas Bloom, Stephen Bond and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.739, August 2006
‘The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation’, Nicholas Bloom, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.718, March 2006

Related Links
Nicholas Bloom webpage
Productivity and Innovation Programme webpage

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