Brexit and trade

Blog

LSE British Politics:

Post-Brexit trade policy hit supply chains and workers

After Brexit, firms in the UK found their supply chains disrupted. Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli show that subsequent declines in trade led to less employment and lower pay for workers - with firms im...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli

26 June 2026

CentrePiece article

Brexit has been an economic failure: here?s the evidence

Putting up trade barriers has made the UK poorer...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

19 June 2026

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit shows how firms react when restrictions are placed on the way they reach customers

Brexit changed how British firms could sell services in the European Union. By studying how companies reacted, Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli show that many implemented workarounds, such as setting up affiliates abro...Read more...

Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli

17 June 2026

Blog

LSE British Politics:

Brexit has been an economic failure

Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer. Thomas Sampson provides the evidence showing how Brexit has negatively affected the UK's economy....Read more...

Thomas Sampson

16 June 2026

CEP discussion paper

Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of Brexit?s effect on UK regional economies

This paper examines the implications of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit base...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

28 May 2026

CEP discussion paper

Mind the break-up: when policy disrupts firms' supply chains

This paper examines how policy-induced supply-chain shocks affect firms? performances, using the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) as a source of exogenous variation. Using UK microdata on firm-level goods and ...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli

15 May 2026

CEP discussion paper

Should we stay or should we go? Firms? decision on services mode of supply

Services account for one-third of global trade, yet little is known about the impact of trade restrictions on services trade. To make progress in this area, it is crucial to understand through which modes services are tr...Read more...

Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli

15 May 2026

CentrePiece article

Deglobalisation in disguise?

Brexit means that UK exporters of services now face more red tape and fewer opportunities....Read more...

Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra

21 October 2025

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Deglobalisation in disguise?

Shania Bhalotia, Swati Dhingra and Danyal Arnold explain their study on the effect of Brexit on the UK's ability to export services abroad. They argue that exporters now face higher trade costs, more red tape and fewer o...Read more...

Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra

23 July 2025

CEP discussion paper

Deglobalisation in disguise? Brexit barriers and trade in services

Deglobalisation policies promote the vision that pulling back from economic integration can help correct international imbalances and reposition national economies for renewed prosperity. A core vision of Brexit was to t...Read more...

Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra

30 June 2025

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

How will US tariffs affect the UK economy?

In this interview with Alexis Papazoglou, Thomas Sampson explains what the US tariffs mean for the UK economy and answers questions on the effects of Brexit on the UK's ability to negotiate the tariffs, as well as on wha...Read more...

Alexis Papazoglou and Thomas Sampson

10 April 2025

Blog

Vox EU:

Deep integration and trade: UK firms in the wake of Brexit

How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This column uses firm-level customs data to study the impact of Brexit on UK goods trade. The authors find that in the short term, exit from the Single Ma...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

7 April 2025

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How Brexit affected the trade of UK firms

The UK left the EU's single market and customs union at the start of 2021, entering unto the Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU. Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thom...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

18 December 2024

CEP discussion paper

Deep integration and trade: UK firms in the wake of Brexit

How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper studies the consequences of economic disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK's exit from the EU's ...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

18 December 2024

Blog

Vox EU:

Changes to firms' service delivery post-Brexit

Services can be supplied through cross-border trade, consumption abroad, commercial presence, and the presence of a natural person. The choice of delivery mode and the extent to which service traders can switch between m...Read more...

Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli

7 November 2024

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Stop performative Brexit and do what works for the British economy

Brexit has left its mark on UK international trade, although, so far, the effect has been smaller than economists expected. Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas review recent UK trade performance and argue th...Read more...

Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas

21 June 2024

CEP election analysis

Brexit and UK trade

This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expe...Read more...

Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas

17 June 2024

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Global Britain has failed - what next?

The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of "Global Britain" is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable a...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

16 February 2024

External report

The state of the UK economy 2024

The state of the UK economy is always an important matter, but it is all the more so in what looks likely to be an election year. This UK in a Changing Europe report takes stock of the UK economy in order to assess how i...Read more...

Arun Advani, David Bailey, Ben Brindle, Simon Burgess, Patrick Dunleavy, Sarah Hall, Stephen Hansaker, Christian A. L. Hilber, Donald Houston, Ethan Ilzetzki, Sandra McNally, Henry G. Overman, Jonathan Portes, Huw Roberts, Thomas Sampson, Andy Summers, Madeleine Sumption, Phil Tomlinson, Tony Wilson and Ben Zaranko

31 January 2024

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will exacerbate long-term challenges facing the UK economy

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in half a century. The impact won't be a one-off event. Structural changes will take place over the long term, as capital a...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

24 June 2022

Chapter

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade

in The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

23 June 2022

Chapter

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

in The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang

23 June 2022

Blog

VoxTalks Economics:

The economics of Brexit (podcast)

The latest CEPR ebook investigates the impact of Brexit so far on the economies of the UK and EU. Tim Phillips talks to three of the authors: Jonathan Portes, Thomas Sampson and Sarah Hall....Read more...

Thomas Sampson

23 June 2022

Blog

Vox EU:

The economics of Brexit: a new eBook

What has Brexit meant for the UK economy? Six years on from the referendum, and over a year since the implementation of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, this column introduces a new eBook which brings together ...Read more...

Jonathan Portes

23 June 2022

External report

The big Brexit

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in nearly half a century. It is a profound change in economic governance, that will reorient production and trade away from...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

22 June 2022

CentrePiece article

How Brexit has raised UK food prices

Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving th...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang

21 June 2022

Blog

Centre for European Reform:

Is Brexit to blame for Britain's economic woes? (podcast)

Thomas Sampson, of the London School of Economics, and John Springford, the CER's deputy director, discuss and compare their findings on how Brexit has affected UK goods trade and inflation, and John shares his latest re...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

14 June 2022

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

What we learnt about the Covid economy

In spring 2020, many countries imposed radical, urgent actions including lockdowns to protect their citizens' health - but there was also a need to protect people from the worst of the ensuing economic storm. Academics a...Read more...

Helen Ward

27 May 2022

External report

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK's departure from the Single Market and Customs Union at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bak...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang

27 April 2022

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit: the major trade disruption came after the UK-EU agreement took effect in 2021

The impact of Brexit on UK trade is a highly contested topic. Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer, and Thomas Sampson summarise the findings of new research on how Brexit has affected the UK's goods trade with ...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

26 April 2022

CEP discussion paper

UK trade in the wake of Brexit

This paper studies the impact of Brexit on the UK's trade with the EU relative to its trade with the rest of the world. We find no evidence that uncertainty and anticipation effects led to a significant decline in relati...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

26 April 2022

Blog

VoxEU:

Global supply chain risk and resilience

Supply disruptions caused by systemic shocks such as Brexit, Covid, and Russia-Ukraine tensions have catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains to the top of policy agendas. In some sectors, however, there is a...Read more...

Richard E. Baldwin and Rebecca Freeman

6 April 2022

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How might Scottish independence affect the costs of international trade?

If Scotland were to become an independent country, there would be a new international border with the rest of the UK. Thomas Sampson considers how additional costs that are inevitably created by borders would affect trad...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

18 February 2022

Journal article

International Economic Review:

The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

This article studies how voting for Brexit affected living standards in the United Kingdom. Using heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups, we analyze how the depreciation of sterling caused by the...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

1 February 2022

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Expecting Brexit

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson examine how Brexit impacted UK trade and GDP before being implemented in 2021. Finding evidence that the UK's economy was around two to three per cent smaller at the end of 2019 than it w...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

25 January 2022

CEP Insights

Brexit

The UK's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 triggered economic reactions that will define the country's future for years to come. Why does leaving the EU have such a profound impact - and how do economists estimate...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson

14 July 2021

Blog

VoxEU:

Why global uncertainty is declining

The latest update of the World Uncertainty Index indicates that global uncertainty has fallen back to its long-run average after reaching a historical high in 2020. This column describes how this is driven by a significa...Read more...

Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri

18 May 2021

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Trade after Brexit: the initial numbers

Thomas Sampson argues that, although the full effects of Brexit won't be known for many years, regulatory divergence is likely to further reduce trade, as firms face the challenge of satisfying different regulations in t...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

17 March 2021

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What do new UK trade data reveal about the impact of lockdown and Brexit?

Thomas Sampson writes that lockdown probably contributed to the fall in UK exports and imports reported in the January 2021 trade data. But the bigger declines in trade with the European Union than with other countries a...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

1 March 2021

Blog

VoxEU:

Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

The Scottish National Party is calling for a second referendum on independence from the UK. This column examines the likely effect of changes in trade costs resulting from independence and Brexit on the Scottish economy,...Read more...

Hanwei Huang, Thomas Sampson and Patrick Schneider

3 February 2021

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

Hanwei Huang, Thomas Sampson, and Patrick Schneider analysed the economics of Scottish independence by looking at its impact on trade. Independence would put a new border between Scotland and the rest of the UK, introduc...Read more...

Hanwei Huang, Thomas Sampson and Patrick Schneider

3 February 2021

External report

Brexit and beyond:

Brexit and UK trade: what next?

Brexit is expected to make the UK poorer in the long run compared to remaining an EU member. Although the analysis used to reach this conclusion is complex, most forecasts depend upon the same economic logic. Brexit will...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

19 January 2021

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Covid-19 has disrupted businesses' ability to prepare for Brexit, but the lack of clarity on the UK-EU relationship is worse

Almost half of businesses report that COVID-19 has negatively affected their ability to prepare for Brexit. More than half listed uncertainty on the future arrangements between the UK and EU as a limitation on their abil...Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Edoardo Tolva

7 December 2020

Blog

LSE Brexit:

The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of Covid - it must be delayed

Whether we face Hard Brexit or No Deal, the long-run costs to the economy are likely to be more than twice that of COVID-19 - at least 2,000 GBP per person, warns John Van Reenen (LSE). He advocates delaying the exit fr...Read more...

John Van Reenen

22 October 2020

External report

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Arla Foods UK has commissioned LSE Consulting's Trade Policy Hub to deliver a study on the vulnerabilities of supply chains in the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit. This study provides a follow up to th...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon and Elitsa Garnizova

1 September 2020

Blog

LSE Consulting:

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Nikhil Datta, Jan Bakker, Elitsa Garnizova & Josh De-Lyon show how consumers in the UK are highly dependent on products originating in the EU, where 40 percent of all consumption of food products in the UK comes from EU ...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon and Elitsa Garnizova

1 September 2020

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will leave the UK worse off economically in all scenarios

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

30 November 2019

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative

The economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative, estimate Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE). The more the UK distances itself from the EU?s economic institutions and policies, the greater will be the...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

26 November 2019

CEP Brexit analysis

The economic impact of Boris Johnson?s Brexit proposals

The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What has been striking, though, is the extent to whic...Read more...

Matt Bevington, Hanwei Huang, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Thomas Sampson

22 October 2019

CEP Brexit analysis

Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain?s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP discussion paper

Trade and worker deskilling

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which t...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP Brexit analysis

Economic performance since the EU referendum

The impact of the Brexit vote can now begin to be evaluated with greater accuracy than previous forecasts, thanks to the emergence of new data. In the run-up to the UKi??s referendum on membership of the European Union (...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

21 March 2019

CEP Brexit analysis

The economic consequences of the Brexit deal

Amidst the political fighting and fevered speculation about leadership challenges and parliamentary defeats for the government, one crucial issue seems to have been lost from sight. The deal negotiated with the European ...Read more...

Peter Levell, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson

28 November 2018

CEP Brexit analysis

The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

The vote to leave the European Union (EU) was an unanticipated shock to the UK economy that increased uncertainty and reduced the country?s expected future openness to trade, investment and immigration with the EU. Our r...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

20 November 2017

CEP Brexit analysis

The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry G. Overman

26 July 2017

CEP discussion paper

The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects

This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers. We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trade in intermediates, as in...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Joao Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

21 April 2017

CentrePiece article

Spain's response to Brexit

Brexit puts at risk the close and mutually beneficial relationship that the UK and Spain have long enjoyed, according to Luis Garicano. With Spain unlikely to budge on freedom of movement and Gibraltar as a negotiating c...Read more...

Luis Garicano

13 December 2016

CentrePiece article

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The first priority in the UK government?s plans for Brexit trade negotiations should be to agree a transitional deal to cover its relations with the European Union (EU) until a long-term agreement is reached. What?s more...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

13 December 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

21 June 2016

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

For over two years, a CEP research team has been studying the likely impact on the living standards of UK households of a referendum vote to leave the European Union. The first of three reports summarised here focuses on...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

9 June 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury?s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

21 April 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The third in a series of Brexit reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), examines how leaving the EU would affect UK incomes through changes in foreign investment in the UK. Leaving the European Union (EU)...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

15 April 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gain...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

18 March 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

Life after Brexit : what are the UK?s options outside the European Union?

Suppose the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU): what happens next? This report outlines some of the options for the UK outside the EU and discusses the costs and benefits of each alternative....Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

12 February 2016