Brexit and the UK economy

Blog

LSE British Politics:

Post-Brexit trade policy hit supply chains and workers

After Brexit, firms in the UK found their supply chains disrupted. Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli show that subsequent declines in trade led to less employment and lower pay for workers - with firms im...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli

26 June 2026

CentrePiece article

Brexit has been an economic failure: here?s the evidence

Putting up trade barriers has made the UK poorer...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

19 June 2026

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit shows how firms react when restrictions are placed on the way they reach customers

Brexit changed how British firms could sell services in the European Union. By studying how companies reacted, Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli show that many implemented workarounds, such as setting up affiliates abro...Read more...

Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli

17 June 2026

Blog

LSE British Politics:

Brexit has been an economic failure

Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer. Thomas Sampson provides the evidence showing how Brexit has negatively affected the UK's economy....Read more...

Thomas Sampson

16 June 2026

CEP discussion paper

Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of Brexit?s effect on UK regional economies

This paper examines the implications of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit base...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

28 May 2026

CEP discussion paper

Mind the break-up: when policy disrupts firms' supply chains

This paper examines how policy-induced supply-chain shocks affect firms? performances, using the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) as a source of exogenous variation. Using UK microdata on firm-level goods and ...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli

15 May 2026

CEP discussion paper

Should we stay or should we go? Firms? decision on services mode of supply

Services account for one-third of global trade, yet little is known about the impact of trade restrictions on services trade. To make progress in this area, it is crucial to understand through which modes services are tr...Read more...

Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli

15 May 2026

Blog

The Lowdown from Nick Cohen (podcast):

Exploding the myths of immigration

Nick Cohen and Professor Alan Manning - economist and one of the country's leading experts on immigration - discuss the impact of immigration on Western democracies, including its role in recent and upcoming elections, a...Read more...

Alan Manning

1 December 2025

CentrePiece article

Deglobalisation in disguise?

Brexit means that UK exporters of services now face more red tape and fewer opportunities....Read more...

Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra

21 October 2025

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Deglobalisation in disguise?

Shania Bhalotia, Swati Dhingra and Danyal Arnold explain their study on the effect of Brexit on the UK's ability to export services abroad. They argue that exporters now face higher trade costs, more red tape and fewer o...Read more...

Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra

23 July 2025

CEP discussion paper

Deglobalisation in disguise? Brexit barriers and trade in services

Deglobalisation policies promote the vision that pulling back from economic integration can help correct international imbalances and reposition national economies for renewed prosperity. A core vision of Brexit was to t...Read more...

Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra

30 June 2025

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

How will US tariffs affect the UK economy?

In this interview with Alexis Papazoglou, Thomas Sampson explains what the US tariffs mean for the UK economy and answers questions on the effects of Brexit on the UK's ability to negotiate the tariffs, as well as on wha...Read more...

Alexis Papazoglou and Thomas Sampson

10 April 2025

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How Brexit affected the trade of UK firms

The UK left the EU's single market and customs union at the start of 2021, entering unto the Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU. Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thom...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

18 December 2024

CEP discussion paper

Deep integration and trade: UK firms in the wake of Brexit

How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper studies the consequences of economic disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK's exit from the EU's ...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

18 December 2024

Blog

Vox EU:

Changes to firms' service delivery post-Brexit

Services can be supplied through cross-border trade, consumption abroad, commercial presence, and the presence of a natural person. The choice of delivery mode and the extent to which service traders can switch between m...Read more...

Holger Breinlich and Martina Magli

7 November 2024

CEP discussion paper

Brexit and investment

In 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union and growth in UK manufacturing investment ground to a halt. This paper uses administrative trade data to investigate the causal relationship between these events. We expl...Read more...

Agnes Norris Keiller

5 August 2024

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Stop performative Brexit and do what works for the British economy

Brexit has left its mark on UK international trade, although, so far, the effect has been smaller than economists expected. Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas review recent UK trade performance and argue th...Read more...

Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas

21 June 2024

CEP election analysis

Brexit and UK trade

This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expe...Read more...

Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas

17 June 2024

CentrePiece article

Ending stagnation

What can be done to address Britain?s relative economic decline over the past decade and a half? The final report of the Economy 2030 Inquiry presents an ambitious strategy for reversing decades of under-investment, by t...Read more...

20 February 2024

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Global Britain has failed - what next?

The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of "Global Britain" is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable a...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

16 February 2024

External report

The state of the UK economy 2024

The state of the UK economy is always an important matter, but it is all the more so in what looks likely to be an election year. This UK in a Changing Europe report takes stock of the UK economy in order to assess how i...Read more...

Arun Advani, David Bailey, Ben Brindle, Simon Burgess, Patrick Dunleavy, Sarah Hall, Stephen Hansaker, Christian A. L. Hilber, Donald Houston, Ethan Ilzetzki, Sandra McNally, Henry G. Overman, Jonathan Portes, Huw Roberts, Thomas Sampson, Andy Summers, Madeleine Sumption, Phil Tomlinson, Tony Wilson and Ben Zaranko

31 January 2024

External report

Ending stagnation

The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well befor...Read more...

4 December 2023

CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and consumer food prices: May 2023 update

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation an...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Richard Davies and Josh De Lyon

24 May 2023

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How has Brexit affected business investment in the UK?

Leaving the European Union has undoubtedly had effects on the UK economy. The most obvious ones will be on international trade. But Brexit might also have an impact on business investment, which is crucial for the econom...Read more...

Jonathan Haskel and Josh Martin

13 March 2023

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How women are changing the face of economics

Economics continues to be a discipline dominated by men. Yet trailblazing female economists are working to change that. Myung Jin explains why it is important to improve diversity and equality within the field....Read more...

Myung Jin

8 March 2023

CEP discussion paper

New dawn fades: trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the very large exchange rate depreciation occurring in June 2016 due to the UK electorate unexpectedly voting to leave the European Union. As news of a leave vote came in, the value of ...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

7 December 2022

CentrePiece article

Stagnation nation

Even before the cost of living crisis, a toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was threatening UK living standards, particularly for families on low and middle incomes. The Economy 2030 Inquiry is examinin...Read more...

20 October 2022

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Britain, a services superpower sinking into stagnation

British households have low levels of financial resilience and are forecast a sluggish living standards recovery coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, Britain is the result of an economy defined by the low grow...Read more...

Resolution Foundation and Centre for Economic Performance

5 August 2022

External report

Stagnation nation: navigating a route to a fairer and more prosperous Britain

The UK has great strengths, but is over a decade into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was posing challenges for low-to-middle income Britain's living standards even before...Read more...

13 July 2022

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will exacerbate long-term challenges facing the UK economy

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in half a century. The impact won't be a one-off event. Structural changes will take place over the long term, as capital a...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

24 June 2022

Chapter

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade

in The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

23 June 2022

CentrePiece article

How Brexit has raised UK food prices

Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving th...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang

21 June 2022

CentrePiece article

Trade disruptions in the wake of Brexit

A dramatic fall in the value of UK imports from the European Union relative to the rest of the world occurred when the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into effect. What's more, according to research by R...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

21 June 2022

Blog

Centre for European Reform:

Is Brexit to blame for Britain's economic woes? (podcast)

Thomas Sampson, of the London School of Economics, and John Springford, the CER's deputy director, discuss and compare their findings on how Brexit has affected UK goods trade and inflation, and John shares his latest re...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

14 June 2022

External report

Enduring strengths

A decade of stagnant living standards, weak productivity and low investment combined with a coming decade of major change - driven by Covid-19, Brexit and Net Zero - mean that it is crucial for the UK to renew its econom...Read more...

Josh De Lyon, Ralf Martin, Juliana Oliveira-Cunha, Arjun Shah, Krishan Shah, Gregory Thwaites and Anna Valero

28 April 2022

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit: the major trade disruption came after the UK-EU agreement took effect in 2021

The impact of Brexit on UK trade is a highly contested topic. Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer, and Thomas Sampson summarise the findings of new research on how Brexit has affected the UK's goods trade with ...Read more...

Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

26 April 2022

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How might Scottish independence affect the costs of international trade?

If Scotland were to become an independent country, there would be a new international border with the rest of the UK. Thomas Sampson considers how additional costs that are inevitably created by borders would affect trad...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

18 February 2022

CEP discussion paper

Expecting Brexit

The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK's membership of the world's deepest economic integration agreement. This paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Brexit referendu...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

25 January 2022

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Labour shortages have become widespread - this is how firms are responding

The majority of firms saw business grow between April and October 2021, after the shocks of Covid-19 and Brexit in 2020. But a new analysis by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon into firms' experiences and expectations for t...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

15 December 2021

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

The Net Zero Strategy provides a foundation which now needs to be cemented in investment, tax, and regulatory decisions

The UK government has delivered on its promise to publish a strategy for driving the country's economy towards net zero emissions by 2050. Esin Serin and Anna Valero write that the economy-wide Net Zero Strategy provides...Read more...

Esin Serin and Anna Valero

29 October 2021

CEP Insights

Brexit

The UK's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 triggered economic reactions that will define the country's future for years to come. Why does leaving the EU have such a profound impact - and how do economists estimate...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson

14 July 2021

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

The 2020s will be a crunch decade that will determine the UK's trajectory into the mid-21st century

As vaccines roll out and restrictions are lifted, public debate is turning to the economic recovery from Covid-19 and the deepest annual downturn for 300 years that came in its wake. But viewing the years ahead simply as...Read more...

Torsten Bell, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin, Charlie McCurdy, Henry G. Overman, Gregory Thwaites, Daniel Tomlinson and Anna Valero

18 May 2021

External report

The UK's decisive decade: the launch report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry

This report marks the launch of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a landmark collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Found...Read more...

Torsten Bell, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin, Charlie McCurdy, Henry G. Overman, Gregory Thwaites, Daniel Tomlinson and Anna Valero

18 May 2021

External report

Brexit and beyond:

Brexit and UK trade: what next?

Brexit is expected to make the UK poorer in the long run compared to remaining an EU member. Although the analysis used to reach this conclusion is complex, most forecasts depend upon the same economic logic. Brexit will...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

19 January 2021

Blog

LSE Brexit:

The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of Covid - it must be delayed

Whether we face Hard Brexit or No Deal, the long-run costs to the economy are likely to be more than twice that of COVID-19 - at least 2,000 GBP per person, warns John Van Reenen (LSE). He advocates delaying the exit fr...Read more...

John Van Reenen

22 October 2020

External report

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Arla Foods UK has commissioned LSE Consulting's Trade Policy Hub to deliver a study on the vulnerabilities of supply chains in the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit. This study provides a follow up to th...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon and Elitsa Garnizova

1 September 2020

CEP Brexit analysis

Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain?s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP discussion paper

Trade and worker deskilling

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which t...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP Brexit analysis

Economic performance since the EU referendum

The impact of the Brexit vote can now begin to be evaluated with greater accuracy than previous forecasts, thanks to the emergence of new data. In the run-up to the UKi??s referendum on membership of the European Union (...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

21 March 2019

CEP Brexit analysis

Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown rapidly in recent decades. Through FDI, firms headquartered in the UK can own and operate subsidiaries throughout the world. FDI opportunities give firms a choice between investi...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

11 February 2019

CEP industrial strategy paper

Local Economic Effects of Brexit: Factsheet

Read more...

Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

1 October 2018

CEP Brexit analysis

The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry G. Overman

26 July 2017

CEP election analysis

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers? real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

19 May 2017

CentrePiece article

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The first priority in the UK government?s plans for Brexit trade negotiations should be to agree a transitional deal to cover its relations with the European Union (EU) until a long-term agreement is reached. What?s more...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

13 December 2016

CentrePiece article

Who voted Leave?

If EU immigration had remained at its 1991 level, the Leave vote share may have been considerably lower. That is one of the conclusions of CEP research by Monica Langella and Professor Alan Manning, which explores the ef...Read more...

Monica Langella and Alan Manning

4 October 2016

CentrePiece article

Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of...Read more...

Barbara Petrongolo

4 October 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

21 June 2016

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the final assessment

John Van Reenen summarises the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU....Read more...

John Van Reenen

9 June 2016

CentrePiece article

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

A major argument of Brexit campaigners is that leaving the European Union would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants, who they claim hurt the jobs and pay of native-born workers. CEP research shows that E...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

9 June 2016

CentrePiece article

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

Investment from overseas brings many benefits to the UK economy, including higher pay and productivity. According to CEP research, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment in th...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

9 June 2016

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

For over two years, a CEP research team has been studying the likely impact on the living standards of UK households of a referendum vote to leave the European Union. The first of three reports summarised here focuses on...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

9 June 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

A reduction in immigration from the European Union (EU) following a vote for Brexit would not lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in the UK. Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in ...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

11 May 2016

CEP Brexit analysis

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury?s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

21 April 2016