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Brexit analyses

A series of briefings on the economic consequences of the UK leaving the European Union. For further discussion papers, blogs and research on this subject visit the Brexit topic hub.

NOTE: The Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) is a politically independent Research Centre at the London School of Economics established by the Economic and Social Research Council. The CEP puts forward no institutional views, but only those of its individual researchers. CEP's research on Brexit forms part of its Trade Programme work.

Brexit Analysis
Brexit and consumer food prices: May 2023 update

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. This report updates the dataset found in an earlier study, showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation and costing households in the UK.
Covid-19 and Brexit from CentrePiece Summer 2020
Covid-19 and Brexit: contrasting sectoral effects

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra show that the UK sectors suffering less during lockdown are those most exposed to damage from leaving the European Union.

All Brexit analyses

CEP Brexit analysis
Brexit and consumer food prices: May 2023 update

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation an...Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Richard Davies and Josh De Lyon

24 May 2023

CEP Brexit analysis
Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish indepe...Read more...

Hanwei Huang, Thomas Sampson and Patrick Schneider

3 February 2021

CEP Brexit analysis
The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals

The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What has been striking, though, is the extent to whic...Read more...

Matt Bevington, Hanwei Huang, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Thomas Sampson

22 October 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain’s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
Economic performance since the EU referendum

The impact of the Brexit vote can now begin to be evaluated with greater accuracy than previous forecasts, thanks to the emergence of new data. In the run-up to the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union (EU...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

21 March 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown rapidly in recent decades. Through FDI, firms headquartered in the UK can own and operate subsidiaries throughout the world. FDI opportunities give firms a choice between investi...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

11 February 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
The economic consequences of the Brexit deal

Amidst the political fighting and fevered speculation about leadership challenges and parliamentary defeats for the government, one crucial issue seems to have been lost from sight. The deal negotiated with the European ...Read more...

Peter Levell, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson

28 November 2018

CEP Brexit analysis
The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

The vote to leave the European Union (EU) was an unanticipated shock to the UK economy that increased uncertainty and reduced the country’s expected future openness to trade, investment and immigration with the EU. Our r...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

20 November 2017

CEP Brexit analysis
The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry G. Overman

26 July 2017

CEP Brexit analysis
Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The UK has yet to decide what post-Brexit trade deals it wants with other countries. To achieve the objectives it ends up choosing, the UK should develop a negotiating strategy based on four principles outlined in this p...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

26 October 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

21 June 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
Who bears the pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups

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Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

2 June 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

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Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

27 May 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

A reduction in immigration from the European Union (EU) following a vote for Brexit would not lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in the UK. Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in ...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

11 May 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury’s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

21 April 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The third in a series of Brexit reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), examines how leaving the EU would affect UK incomes through changes in foreign investment in the UK. Leaving the European Union (EU)...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

15 April 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gain...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

18 March 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
Life after Brexit : what are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

Suppose the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU): what happens next? This report outlines some of the options for the UK outside the EU and discusses the costs and benefits of each alternative....Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

12 February 2016