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External publication

The big Brexit

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in nearly half a century. It is a profound change in economic governance, that will reorient production and trade away from the EU and towards the domestic market, impacting people, places and firms across the UK. Understanding the scale and nature of this change, and the extent of the adjustment so far, is crucial for to policy makers looking to reset the country's economic strategy. That is the focus of this report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry.

This report provides the most detailed assessment to date of the long-run impacts of the final deal agreed with the EU. It finds that the long-run impacts will mean significant change for some sectors of our economy - for example, fishing - but that the aggregate effect will be to reduce household incomes as a result of a weaker pound, and lower investment and trade. This adjustment will be substantial, but we should not expect it to fundamentally alter the nature of our economy, including the UK's overall services focus and export specialisation.

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

22 June 2022

The Economy 2030 Inquiry

The big Brexit

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This External publication is part of the centre's Trade programme.