In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, with differences across states. Manufacturing in the US may enjoy a temporary surge in employment but employment in services and agriculture declines. Globally, countries that trade more with the US suffer greater losses.

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10 June 2025

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Vox EU

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https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/2025-trade-war-dynamic-impacts-across-us-states-and-global-economy

This Blog is published under the centre's Trade programme.

This publication comes under the following theme: Trade Policy and barriers to international economic integration