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If you run a business that exports to the United States, how big is the tariff you have to pay? In 2025 that question was hard to answer. Between February and December, 53 separate announcements introduced, delayed, rein...Read more...
Kalina Manova
31 July 2026
US trade policy in 2025 was unprecedented in the frequency, complexity and volatility of tariff announcements. This paper presents evidence that the resulting policy environment reduced trade flows because of confusion o...Read more...
Kalina Manova, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Aaron Tang
30 June 2026
After Brexit, firms in the UK found their supply chains disrupted. Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli show that subsequent declines in trade led to less employment and lower pay for workers - with firms im...Read more...
Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Martina Magli
26 June 2026
Discover Swati Dhingra?s recommended reading on trade economics...Read more...
Swati Dhingra
19 June 2026
Putting up trade barriers has made the UK poorer...Read more...
Thomas Sampson
Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer. Thomas Sampson provides the evidence showing how Brexit has negatively affected the UK's economy....Read more...
16 June 2026
We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil?s labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral empl...Read more...
Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda and Emanuel Ornelas
1 May 2026
International trade flows show strong persistence over time. Standard static gravity models cannot rationalize this persistence and lack a micro-foundation for including lagged trade flows as a determinant of current tra...Read more...
Mario Larch, Leandro Navarro and Dennis Novy
15 April 2026
A central insight from neoclassical economics is that international trade operates like an improvement in production technology. It generates mutual aggregate welfare gains for countries as a whole, but creates winners a...Read more...
Ralph Ossa and Stephen J. Redding
25 February 2026
Brexit means that UK exporters of services now face more red tape and fewer opportunities....Read more...
Danyal Arnold, Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra
21 October 2025
The US administration's latest threat to impose sweeping new tariffs on many of its closest allies signals a renewed embrace of aggressive unilateralism and misunderstood economics. This column argues that the only effec...Read more...
Keith Head, Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, Emanuel Ornelas and Moritz Schularick
27 July 2025
Deglobalisation policies promote the vision that pulling back from economic integration can help correct international imbalances and reposition national economies for renewed prosperity. A core vision of Brexit was to t...Read more...
30 June 2025
Amid geopolitical shocks, the EU is revisiting its industrial strategy. However, traditional metrics often paint a misleading picture of Europe's underlying strength. This column uses a new approach to measure the EU's r...Read more...
Filippo Di Mauro, Marco Matani and Gianmarco Ottaviano
25 June 2025
How should UK exporters react to the tariffs imposed by President Trump? While some may start planning to increase production in the United States to avoid the tax, others whose US customers are less price-sensitive may ...Read more...
Catherine Thomas
20 June 2025
Headlines around Trump's sweeping tariffs have focused on trade wars, inflation and the geopolitical fallout. But a more profound shift is taking place, argues Viet Nguyen-Tien. Rather than restoring American jobs, these...Read more...
Viet Nguyen-Tien
10 June 2025
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US...Read more...
Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate and Jose P Vasquez
Over the last four decades, many developing countries initiated reforms that have lowered barriers to trade. Yet despite these reforms, developing countries still remain far less open than developed ones, both because of...Read more...
David Atkin, Laura Boudreau, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Amit Khandelwal, Isabela Manelici, Brian McCaig, Pamela Medina, Ameet Morjaria, Luigi Pascali, Heitor Pellegrina, Bob Rijkers and Meredith Startz
27 February 2025
This episode of Development Dialogues addresses how lower-income countries have engaged with global trade. How have their approaches to trade differed based on their underlying institutional and economic structure? What ...Read more...
Amit Khandelwal, Isabela Manelici and Arvind Subramanian
17 December 2024
This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expe...Read more...
Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas
17 June 2024
The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of "Global Britain" is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable a...Read more...
16 February 2024
Supply chain disruptions are routinely blamed for things ranging from elevated inflation to shortages of medical equipment in the pandemic. But how should exposure to foreign supply chains be measured? Using a global inp...Read more...
Richard E. Baldwin, Rebecca Freeman and Angelos Theodorakopoulos
29 November 2023
After nearly half a century of EU membership, Britain needs a trade strategy. The stakes are high: such a strategy shapes what families and firms buy from abroad, and what gets produced domestically; influences our jobs,...Read more...
Shania Bhalotia, Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry and Sophie Hale
15 June 2023
Modern trade agreements between countries contain a host of provisions beyond simple tariff reductions on traded products. Research by Holger Breinlich, Valentina Corradi, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Jo?o Santos Silva and...Read more...
Holger Breinlich, Valentina Corradi, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Jo?o Santos Silva and Tom Zylkin
21 February 2023
To limit the funding of Russia's continued aggravation towards Ukraine and its subsequent impact on soaring energy prices, the G7 countries plan to impose a price cap on purchases of Russian oil and related products. Man...Read more...
Romesh Vaitilingam
27 September 2022
Modern preferential trade agreements contain a host of provisions that go beyond tariff liberalisation. By adapting techniques from the machine learning literature, this column develops data-driven methods for selecting ...Read more...
8 July 2022
