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Investorschronicle.co.uk

Labour and sterling

Not quite. The problem is uncertainty. A Corbyn government would break with the economic policies we have been accustomed to since the 1980s. This alone generates uncertainty. And the clichè is right; markets really do hate uncertainty. We can measure policy uncertainty by an index constructed by Nick Bloom, Scott Baker and Steven Davis. Since this index began in 1998 it has been significantly negatively correlated with the real $/£ rate. Higher uncertainty, then, means a weaker pound.

Related Links:
Investorschronicle.co.uk - Labour and sterling

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage


News Posted: 11/11/2019      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Just believing you are trapped by a lack of opportunity can impact economic growth

If, as Aiyar and Ebeke argue, low intergenerational mobility is a good proxy for inequality of opportunity, then its steep decline in Britain has alarming implications for the economy. According to researchers at the University of Surrey and the London School of Economics, in 2005, 62 per cent of people aged between 28 and 32 earned as much or more than their fathers did at the same age. But by 2018, that share had fallen to 36 per cent.
Jo Blanden, Stephen Machin and Sumaiya Rahman

This blog post is based on 'Falling Absolute Intergenerational Mobility' presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2019.

Related Links:
The Independent - Just believing you are trapped by a lack of opportunity can impact economic growth

CEP Education and Skills

CEP Labour Markets

CEP Wellbeing

Jo Blanden webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 11/11/2019      [Back to the Top]

05/11/2019

The Independent - Daily Edition

Political forecasting is a thankless task, especially so in today's Britain. Even still, it's worth looking at what may improve a particular party's chances in the 12 December election. One factor to consider is rising economic insecurity. A recent paper published by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics and Political Science defines it as anxiety about future income. The authors find that economic insecurity is associated with both greater political participation - for example, the intention to vote - and "notably" more support for right-leaning parties, while enthusiasm for left-leaning parties falls.


Related Links:
05/11/2019 - The Independent - Daily Edition

Economic Insecurity and the Rise of the Right

CEP Labour Markets

CEP Wellbeing

Andrew Clark webpage


News Posted: 05/11/2019      [Back to the Top]

telegraph.co.uk

The £160,000 reason why your children will vote Labour in the general election

Millennials, many of whom came of age during the 2008 financial crisis, are the first generation ever to be less well-off than their parents. The reasons for this, according to a report released last week by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), are not down to excessive splurging on avocado toast and Netflix subscriptions. Rather, it's the result of fundamental changes to our economy - such as stalling earnings growth, paltry returns on savings and rises in house prices that have pushed property ownership beyond the reach of most young workers.
Research by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics found that the number of young people (those around the age of 30) who earn in real terms as much as or more than their fathers did at the same age plunged from more than a half in 2005 to just 30pc by 2018.
'Falling Absolute Intergenerational Mobility' presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2019.

Related Links:
telegraph.co.uk - The £160,000 reason why your children will vote Labour in the general election

Generation gap: young Brits less likely to 'do better' than their parents

CEP Education and Skills

CEP Labour Markets

CEP Wellbeing

Jo Blanden webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 05/11/2019      [Back to the Top]