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Independent

Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

“There’s absolutely no controversy about gravity models,” said Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at the London School of Economics, also pointing out that gravity models are the subject of the second chapter of the new handbook of international economics. Thomas Sampson, also an assistant professor at the LSE, added that the Cambridge team’s own analysis was itself methodologically flawed.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Home Office - gov.uk

Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement - press release

Sir David, who was chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee until August 2016, will set the strategic priorities for the:

  • Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority
  • Employment Agency Standards Inspectorate
  • HMRC’s National Minimum Wage enforcement team

Related Links:
Home Office - gov.uk - Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement - press release

CEP Labour Markets


News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Employers face jail over minimum wage

Employers who deny workers the minimum wage could face two years in jail under plans to accelerate a crackdown on unscrupulous companies and gangmasters.  The government will appoint a “labour market enforcement director” today to clamp down on the exploitation of casual workers.  The new role will be taken up by Sir David Metcalf, an industrial relations professor at the London School of Economics and, until recently, a key adviser to Downing Street on migration.


Related Links:
The Times - Employers face jail over minimum wage

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Investors Chronicle

More profit warnings

Investors should brace themselves for more profit warnings in 2017.

This isn't simply because economic growth will slow this year: economists expect an expansion of only 1.2 per cent this year after 2 per cent growth last. Nor is it just because there's danger of a squeeze upon the profit margins of firms that don't export much. It's also because economic slowdowns affect the distribution of growth rates across companies. As the macroeconomy weakens, corporate growth becomes more negatively skewed, so that a disproportionate number of firms do badly. This was first pointed out by Paul Geroski and Paul Gregg in a study of the 1990-91 recession in the UK. They showed that just 10 per cent of firms accounted for 84 per cent of the drop in profits then. However, a recent paper by Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Fatih Guvenen and Sergio Salgado at the University of Minnesota shows that much the same is true around the world. They studied corporate sales growth in 44 countries between 1986 and 2013 and found that "periods of low economic activity are characterised by an increase in the probability of very large negative shocks at the firm level".


Related Links:
Investors Chronicle - More profit warnings

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage


News Posted: 04/01/2017      [Back to the Top]