Results

Blog

IMF Finance and Development magazine:

A fivefold increase in remote work since the pandemic could boost economic growth and bring wider benefits

Economics is famous for being the dismal science. Sadly, recent work highlighting the slowdown in productivity growth stretching back to the 1950s is no exception. But here Nicholas Bloom takes a more cheerful view becau...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The educational choices of British 16-year-olds matter for the economy

The choices that British 16-year-olds are making in the next few weeks about their future studies matter not just for them and their families but also for the nation's economy. Britain needs a workforce with graduate-le...Read more...

Blog

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment:

Harnessing the UK's strengths for green growth

Esin Serin and Pia Andres set out evidence on the UK's sectoral and technological strengths to assist policymakers as they consider how to allocate support across the economy in a way that maximises green growth opportun...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

The speed of firm response to inflation

Firm inflation expectations are a key driver of future price growth. This column uses a large economy-wide business survey to understand the response of firms to monthly CPI inflation releases in the UK. Firms' CPI infla...Read more...

Blog

The Rest is Money (podcast):

Bank of England Economist: Interest rates must be cut (podcast)

Economist and external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra talks to Robert and Steph about why she thinks the time has come to lower Bank Rate, the interest rate set by the Bank of En...Read more...

Blog

LSE Review of Books:

This Time No Mistakes: How to Remake Britain - review

In This Time No Mistakes, Will Hutton examines the causes of Britain's political and economic dysfunction and calls for a new public philosophy combining social democracy and progressive liberalism to redress current cri...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

A Year Older, A Year Wiser (and Farther from Frontier): Invention Rents and Human Capital Depreciation

We look at how the arrival of an invention affects wage returns and the probability of moving out of employment for white- and blue-collar co-workers of the inventor. First results suggest that older workers are hurt by ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Research evidence on key issues in the 2024 UK General Election

A collection of 11 briefings produced by CEP during the 2024 general election campaign providing a snapshot of the UK economy....Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The UK must invest in further and higher education

Education has not been a prominent part of the election debates, and further education even less so. But as Sandra McNally, Guglielmo Ventura and Gill Wyness argue, economic growth depends on paying much more attention t...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Gendered change: 150 years of transformation in US hours

The 2023 Nobel Committee awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Claudia Goldin. Among her many contributions is the emphasis on the non-monotonic trend in women's employment...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Energy and climate change

The scale of change and investment required for net zero is challenging, but early action is the most cost-effective way to achieve the 2050 target and could bring opportunities....Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

What an LSE-CBI survey found about AI adoption in UK firms

The crises and changes of the 2020s have provided many challenges for UK firms, and these occurred against a background of stagnant productivity since the financial crisis. But crises can also force productivity-enhancin...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

How can the next government ensure better evidence use for achieving economic growth?

Whichever party wins this week's election will face big challenges, including achieving stronger local economic growth. Knowing how to do this - which mix of interventions will be most effective, and where to target them...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Further and higher education

There are not enough graduates for sectors in which the UK has a comparative advantage and there are too few people educated to sub-degree level compared to other countries....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Schools

Schools in England, and the UK as a whole, need greater investment. Failure to do so puts economic growth in jeopardy as well as worsening social mobility....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Wellbeing

Wellbeing should be the overarching aim of government. Assessing policies by showing the wellbeing benefit relative to cost would mean mental health becoming a top priority for policy development....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration

In 2023, the majority of migrants were workers or students, and their dependants. Humanitarian immigration also increased - with visa schemes set up for those fleeing Ukraine and Hong Kong....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Housing and planning

The housing affordability crisis not only restricts access to decent housing, or housing at all, but it has adverse effects on equality, social cohesion, retirement planning, productivity and economic growth....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Work, wages and inactivity

The recent aggregate performance of the UK labour market looks good. But aggregate performance often obscures important changes around averages. Inequality along several dimensions remains a persistent feature of the UK ...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Outsourcing market access services is a key strategy for firms expanding abroad

Business services like advertising, legal support and market research are key inputs for all manufacturing companies in an international business environment, since they are essential for accessing markets abroad. This c...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Stop performative Brexit and do what works for the British economy

Brexit has left its mark on UK international trade, although, so far, the effect has been smaller than economists expected. Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas review recent UK trade performance and argue th...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Ideas for the UK: election economics international week

What is the right level of migration for the UK? Is the country on track to meet its commitments on tackling climate change? And how will big changes in the world trading environment affect the economy? Our fourth electi...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Spatial disparities in productivity and income

This briefing looks at the causes and consequences of UK spatial disparities and what, if anything, policy can do to address them....Read more...

CentrePiece article

in brief... Could a new policy institution help solve the UK’s productivity problem?

Comparatively sluggish productivity growth is one of the UK’s biggest policy challenges. Past strategies to solve the problem have lacked both sustained commitment and proper evaluation. Anna Valero and Bart van Ark call...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The national minimum wage: 25 years on

It is now just over a quarter of a century since a national minimum wage was introduced in the UK. Once a source of controversy due to fears that it would lead to fewer jobs, the policy has instead proved to be highly su...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The economic costs of the failing planning system

Paul Cheshire began to investigate the economic effects of the UK’s planning system 40 years ago. Here he draws on a recent public lecture – and panel discussion with Stephen Aldridge, Kate Barker and Simon Wolfson – to ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Spatial disparities in productivity are central to the future of levelling up

In the run-up to the election, our colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) are running a series of election analysis articles, where world-leading economists give their take on the state of different area...Read more...

Journal article

Critical Sociology: Forthcoming

A Popular Backlash against Globalization?

Is there a popular backlash against globalization? When did it start and in which forms? What do we know about its causes? We address these questions in the context of advanced democracies. We see the ‘globalization back...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit and UK trade

This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expe...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

How to grow the UK's dwindling productivity

The UK economy is stuck. GDP growth per person has been anaemic over the last 14 years, and last year it actually fell. The cause behind these concerning figures is the collapse in the growth of productivity. If the next...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Growth and productivity

The collapse in productivity growth underlies many of the problems of the UK economy – from squeezed public services to stagnant living standards. Productivity growth in the UK has been weak relative to its own past and...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Mafias and Firms (Podcast)

Which firms are infiltrated by organised crime, and why? We know that organised crime has links to some firms in the legal economy. But how big is this infiltration, and what do they gain from it? Rocco Macchiavello tell...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Ideas for the UK: election economics week one

Should the UK have compulsory national service? Do we need more police? How bad are NHS waiting lists? What about our failing water companies? Over the past week, the UK has seen a host of new policy proposals in these a...Read more...

Blog

What works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Planning ahead for local growth

With a summer election coming, local areas face an important challenge over the next few months. Whichever government emerges on July 4th, it seems clear they will be asking local places to work out new steps and strateg...Read more...

Blog

Politics and Policy:

Can Starmer avoid the mistakes of the past?

Many think that the UK's crisis is the result of a series of mistakes individual prime ministers made: Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss. But a deeper look reveals the source of these mistakes: the ideology of rampan...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

With great power comes great responsibility (for evaluation?)

Last week saw the final local government elections before the next general election. Amongst councillors changing places - or staying put - across the country, these elections ushered in two new metro mayors: one for Yor...Read more...

External publication

Labour Economics: Thinking through Labour's economic agenda

With the Labour Party having vowed to achieve the fastest growth in the G7, the Social Market Foundation has brought together leading economic experts to provide independent analysis of the party's proposed approach - an...Read more...

Blog

LSE Inequalities:

A class apart: prime ministers' origins profoundly impact their political worldviews

The background of our Prime Ministers hugely influences the judgements they make. Yet our leaders are drawn from an astonishingly narrow slice of society: every PM who attended an English university since WW2 went to Oxf...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Higher workload for police officers correlates with victims withdrawing statements

In the UK, partners or family members are responsible for nearly half of all female homicides. But there is an increasing rate of statement withdrawal from victims in high-risk domestic abuse cases. Tom Kirchmaier and Ek...Read more...

Blog

The Conversation:

How the national living wage helps the UK's poorest households: new research

The UK's national living wage has just been raised by 10% to £11.44 per hour. It is now payable for all workers aged 21 and over, where previously it was for those aged 23 and over. Introduced in 2016 as the flagship pol...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The national minimum wage - 25 years on

This month marks 25 years since a national minimum wage was introduced in the UK. Once a controversial policy, due to fears that it would lead to fewer jobs, it has instead proven to be highly successful. The minimum wag...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

New opportunities in transport investment for growth?

In February, the government announced the new Local Transport Fund, a package of £4.7bn of spending. Places will be able to spend funds on a range of transport investments, with the aim of improving connectivity within a...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Mais lecture - a serious approach for sustainable and inclusive growth

In her Mais lecture, the Shadow Chancellor diagnosed the UK's problems of economic stagnation, persistent inequality and the instability that geopolitical shocks and climate change bring. Anna Valero outlines what a solu...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What next for Poland's economy?

Poland's new government is prioritising competent policy-making, the rule of law and investment in skills and education. There is real promise that new policies will be based on solid research evidence, including the app...Read more...

Blog

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment:

The UK's Spring Budget 2024: more of the same on growth and net zero?

The Spring Budget 2024 prioritised short-run tax cuts, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt taking an extra 2% off national insurance contributions. This was anticipated, given we are in an election year - but it marks another mi...Read more...

Journal article

LSE Public Policy Review:

Wage Controversies: Real Wage Stagnation, Inequality and Labour Market Institutions

Weak real wage growth, low wage work and higher wage inequality than the past are features of contemporary labour markets the world over. Longstanding wage controversies in economics are of relevance to them. This paper ...Read more...

Journal article

LSE Public Policy Review:

Spatial Labour Market Inequality and Social Protection in the UK

Spatial inequality in economic outcomes is increasingly seen as a problem for national economies. This paper considers spatial inequality in the UK labour market, its causes, and potential policy solutions. Relative to o...Read more...

Journal article

LSE Public Policy Review:

Net Zero and the Labour Market: Evidence from the UK

The urgent need for tackling climate change brings with it the need to understand the impacts of net zero policies on the labour market. Various approaches have been taken in attempts to measure and describe green jobs, ...Read more...

Blog

Resolution Foundation:

Investing in Britain's future - An economic strategy for Britain (video)

Investing too little for one year is manageable, but doing so year after year is a recipe for relative decline. This is precisely what the UK has been doing and where it finds itself. Anna Valero and James Smith discuss ...Read more...

External publication

Old Skills, New Skills - what is changing in the UK labour market?

The UK, along with other industrial countries, is experiencing rapid technological change associated with robotics and artificial intelligence, precipitating significant transformations in terms of how work is organised,...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... The discussion of immigration needs to improve

Those who believe in a more open, liberal approach to immigration often frame their argument as being on the side of ‘good economics’ versus ‘bad politics’. Alan Manning explains why the arguments presented as ‘good econ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Ending stagnation

What can be done to address Britain’s relative economic decline over the past decade and a half? The final report of the Economy 2030 Inquiry presents an ambitious strategy for reversing decades of under-investment, by t...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Global Britain has failed - what next?

The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of "Global Britain" is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable a...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regi...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Lessons for business support schemes from a large RCT in the UK

Productivity in the UK is stagnant and improving firm performance a key policy objective. Almost a decade ago, the UK government undertook an ambitious randomised control trial - the Growth Vouchers Programme - which pro...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The discussion of immigration needs to improve

Those who believe in a more open, liberal approach to immigration often frame their argument as being on the side of "good economics" versus "bad politics". Alan Manning explains why the arguments presented as "good econ...Read more...

External publication

The state of the UK economy 2024

The state of the UK economy is always an important matter, but it is all the more so in what looks likely to be an election year. This UK in a Changing Europe report takes stock of the UK economy in order to assess how i...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

The UK's productivity gap: what did it look like twenty years ago?

How to boost UK productivity growth has long been a central concern of economic researchers and policymakers. A report written twenty years ago by Romesh Vaitilingam highlights the continuing challenges of achieving that...Read more...

Journal article

The Econometrics Journal:

Design-based identification with formula instruments: A review

Many studies in economics use instruments or treatments that combine a set of exogenous shocks with other predetermined variables via a known formula. Examples include shift-share instruments and measures of social or sp...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Could a new policy institution help solve the UK's productivity problem?

Comparatively sluggish productivity growth is one of the UK's biggest policy challenges. Past strategies to solve the problem have lacked commitment and proper evaluation. One solution could be to establish a growth and ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Research for the World:

The UK's relative decline has gone on long enough, it's time for a new economic strategy

The British economy is stagnating, but this doesn't have to be terminal, argue Torsten Bell and Stephen Machin, who set out The Economy 2030 Inquiry's roadmap to a new prosperity....Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

The experience of war shapes communities and future wars

Countries currently involved in active warfare - Ukraine, Russia, and Israel most prominently - have launched intense mobilisation campaigns to expand their armies. This column examines what compels ordinary men and wome...Read more...

Blog

Higher Education Policy Institute:

Confronting higher education's class divide

Lee Elliot Major explains why developing an equity approach in higher education is the only way we will ever level the learning playing field - and lays out three simple steps we can take to achieve this....Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Boosting productivity: why doesn't the UK invest enough?

The UK economy has long suffered from chronic levels of underinvestment. Many factors explain the failure to invest enough. One recurring theme is short-term thinking - by managers who don't invest in projects with long-...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Has job furlough reduced UK labour force participation after Covid-19?

Labour force participation in the UK has not recovered since the pandemic. Some blame the generosity of the job furlough scheme, but many countries with similar policies have performed better. Underlying health problems ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Impact:

Dashboards have the power to make complex research accessible to the public and policymakers

While researchers often point to the relevance of their research, economic models and econometric methods are typically inaccessible to a wider audience. Gabriel Ahlfeldt explains how interactive dashboards represent a u...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

From boom to bust in British immigration policy

A series of measures to slash immigration have been announced by the government making it harder for employers to hire overseas staff. Alan Manning looks at what the changes mean for would-be immigrants and their familie...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

How to end Britain's stagnation

Ending Stagnation, the final report of the Economy 2030 inquiry, sets out a serious strategy for ending Britain's relative decline. At its core is the aim to reverse decades of underinvestment - by private and public sec...Read more...

External publication

Ending stagnation

The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well befor...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Autumn Statement: Is the UK gearing up on policies for sustainable growth?

Growth will be a key focus of the forthcoming Autumn Statement, which the Chancellor of the Exchequer will deliver this Wednesday. Anna Valero, Esin Serin and Brendan Curran argue that effective measures to promote green...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Planning may be a political hot potato but radical reform cannot wait

Planning - largely because of the cruel growth in the unaffordability of housing - has risen up the political agenda. Reforms are urgently needed to allow more homes to be built, but change is notoriously difficult. Ahea...Read more...

Journal article

British Journal of Industrial Relations: Forthcoming

Pay transparency intervention and the gender pay gap: Evidence from research-intensive universities in the UK

This study investigates the impact of a pay transparency intervention in reducing the gender pay gap in the UK university sector. Introduced in 2007, the initiative enabled public access to average annual earnings disagg...Read more...

Blog

Productivity Puzzles:

Why does the UK do so well on the Global Innovation Index? (Podcast)

How do we measure innovation and compare it across countries? And how can it be that the UK is doing so well as an innovation nation, while we seem to be underperforming on productivity?...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

More steps in the wrong direction on net zero, at precisely the wrong time

This week's King's Speech has paved the way for a further weakening of climate policy in the UK by introducing a bill to support future oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. Esin Serin and Anna Valero explain how this a...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Blog series: Understanding core economic concepts in economic growth

This blog series, aimed primarily at those working in local and central government, provides deep-dives into various components of economic growth, and some key concepts that affect the impact of economic growth policies...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Slavery and Britain's industrial revolution

To what extent did the wealth derived from slavery contribute to Europe's economic growth? Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Hans-Joachim Voth find that slaveholding areas of Britain were less agricultural, closer to ...Read more...

External publication

Finance for the future

The UK Government has an opportunity to mobilise far greater amounts of private investment for public policy priorities than is the case now. Blended finance, deployed well, offers a tried and tested pathway for public a...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Britain can promote private investment and economic growth. Here's how

The UK investment ecosystem needs rewiring across the board to increase firms' desire to invest in productive and sustainable assets, and to enhance their ability to do so. Paul Brandily, Mimosa Distefano, Krishan Shah, ...Read more...

External publication

Learning to grow: how to situate a skills strategy in an economic strategy

Investing in human capital is a crucial aspect of building an economy that is both more productive and fairer, and any growth strategy must incorporate an agenda for increasing human capital and workforce skills within t...Read more...

External publication

Applying the Robbins Principle to further education and apprenticeship

Britain does well at higher education, and badly for its non-graduates. The main problem is our failure to train more people when they are young. Shockingly, 30 per cent of 18 year olds are not in education or training -...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Will the NHS long-term workforce plan solve the current crisis?

Proposals to solve staffing shortages in the NHS focus on training more staff and retaining those already working in surgeries, clinics and hospitals. But Giuseppe Moscelli, Jo Blanden, Marco Mello and Melisa Sayli say t...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Low investment Britain: policies to promote foundations for growth

The UK investment ecosystem needs rewiring across the board to increase firms' desire to invest in productive and sustainable assets, and to enhance their ability to do so. Paul Brandily, Mimosa Distefano, Krishan Shah, ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Business Studies:

Integrating host-country political heterogeneity into MNE-state bargaining: insights from international political economy

The international business (IB) literature has emphasised the heterogeneity of firm strategies in shaping MNE-state bargaining, but largely ignored the heterogeneity of states. In contrast, the international political ec...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding additionality and deadweight

Will Brett-Harding discusses additionality and deadweight, the twin concepts which are essential to assessing policy effectiveness....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Time for a strategy to boost productivity in Manchester and beyond

The UK has a significant productivity problem and the poor performance of the nation's largest cities outside the capital contribute to this problem. Expert economists set out what change would be needed to set Greater M...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How can UK policy-makers make homes more affordable?

Housing in the UK has become seriously unaffordable; the problem is likely to get worse and younger people are being hit the hardest. Reforms that could be effective in solving the crisis are considered politically infea...Read more...

External publication

Ready for change

Britain's productivity shortfall is its foundational economic problem. Debate about this gap and how to fix it typically focus on raising productivity of existing firms, via two routes. First, innovation: investment, R&D...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Are the self-employed trapped?

Still affected by the cost-of-living crisis, the self-employed are still struggling to recover their finances and mental health. Many of them would leave for a salaried job, yet they appear to be stuck in self-employment...Read more...

Blog

The News Agents:

Is this Sunak's 'moment of shame'? (podcast)

Rishi Sunak was propelled into explaining his new position in a hastily arranged press conference after details of plans to adjust (water down) his commitment to green policies were leaked to the BBC. Anna Valero and Lor...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The UK should lead on a green industrial strategy not roll back

The UK government appears to be watering down its commitments to net zero, breaking the cross-party consensus on the need for Britain to lead in the global battle against climate change. Yet now is the time to double dow...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding efficiency and equity

Henry Overman explains why we need to consider efficiency and equity when thinking about local economic growth policies....Read more...

Blog

LSE Review of Books:

Book Review: Wellbeing: Science and Policy by Richard Layard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve

In Wellbeing: Science and Policy, Richard Layard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve present an enquiry into human wellbeing: what factors create it, how can it be effectively measured and how can it be improved? The authors' rich ...Read more...

External publication

A tale of two cities (part 2)

Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation's largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 I...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding agglomeration

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino explains why considering agglomeration is important for local economic growth policies and what to consider when thinking about agglomeration....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Public sector relocation: how to think about local impacts

Will Brett-Harding investigates the effects of public sector relocation on local areas that are destinations for the relocated or new public sector activity....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

A true housing crisis needs more than post-truth politicians

The UK's housing crisis is particularly acute by international standards. Instead of identifying real solutions, argues Paul Cheshire, policy-makers have offered only rhetorical devices, ineffective local mechanisms, and...Read more...

Chapter

Housing

in Policy Landscape 2023

What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and U...Read more...

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Daniel Chandler on rehabilitating liberalism and the political implications of economic inequality (podcast)

Daniel Chandler talked to Professor Anand Menon on this week's episode of the UKICE (I Tell) podcast about his new book, Free and Equal: What Would a Fair Society Look Like?, what his top two policy recommendations for K...Read more...

Blog

RSA:

Investment for inclusive and sustainable growth in cities

This is a decisive decade for addressing the UK's longstanding productivity problems, large and persistent inequalities across and within regions, and delivering on net zero commitments. Anna Valero has contributed this ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Economists discuss monetary policy in light of Charles Goodhart's work

Financial stability and monetary policy are once again topical in the wake of rising inflation and higher interest rates, which have severely affected bank balance sheets, triggering a flight of deposits and government i...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Will the NHS long-term workforce plan solve the current crisis?

New proposals to solve staffing shortages in the NHS focus on training more staff and retaining those already working in surgeries, clinics and hospitals. But the plan may be insufficiently ambitious; and it requires mor...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Public spaces: key points to keep in mind

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino discusses the local economic benefits and costs of possible schemes regarding the public realm and green spaces....Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

House of Commons Treasury Committee: Pre-appointment hearing of Dr Swati Dhingra to the Monetary Policy Committee

In oral evidence, Dr Dhingra was questioned about her personal suitability for the post and the UK's economic outlook....Read more...

External publication

Beyond boosterism

The UK is a low investment nation. Low business investment is a big driver of this. Low investment is one reason behind the UK's weak productivity growth, which in turn is the main reason behind the stagnation in UK livi...Read more...

CEP report

Seizing sustainable growth opportunities from tidal stream energy in the UK

This is the decade for managing the immense risks of climate change, and delivery on net zero. That means rapidly increasing the share of renewable sources in our energy mix alongside a step-change in energy and resource...Read more...

CentrePiece article

School qualifications and youth custody

Youth custody has severe long-term consequences for detained young people. Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela investigate the relationship between GCSE qualifications and youth custody, and find t...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Slavery and Britain's industrial revolution

To what extent did the wealth derived from slavery contribute to Europe’s economic growth? Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Hans-Joachim Voth find that slaveholding areas of Britain were less agricultural, closer to ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Improving the lives of low-paid workers

The ramping up of the national minimum wage since 2015 has more than halved the share of low-paid employees in Britain. But it is far from job done: too few low-paying jobs offer dignity, respect and security to the peop...Read more...

Blog

LSE Review of Books:

Book Review: Free and Equal: What Would a Fair Society Look Like? by Daniel Chandler

In 'Free and Equal: What Would a Fair Society Look Like?' Daniel Chandler considers how the work of twentieth-century philosopher John Rawls could inform policymaking to build a fairer society with reduced inequality and...Read more...

External publication

Trading up

After nearly half a century of EU membership, Britain needs a trade strategy. The stakes are high: such a strategy shapes what families and firms buy from abroad, and what gets produced domestically; influences our jobs,...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Stepping up evaluation of active travel

Will Brett Harding discusses increasing active travel and what this means for locally delivered projects, and more generally about plans for determining the benefits of active travel investments....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Re-imagining politics to build a fairer society: Q&A with Daniel Chandler

For Daniel Chandler, some key insights into reforming our politics to make it more inclusive, egalitarian and democratic come from the philosopher John Rawls. In his latest book Free and Equal: What Would a Fair Society ...Read more...

Blog

LSE:

Daniel Chandler: The Simple Idea That Could Solve Our Political Problems (video)

Inequality, climate change, culture wars and disaffection with politics - these are just some of the seismic issues we face in the UK in 2023. But while different schools of political thought might suggest different solu...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What did Adam Smith think - and why does it matter today?

This year is the tercentenary of Adam Smith - 300 years since the birth of the man widely considered to be the father of economics. Jesse Norman MP, author of Adam Smith: What He Thought, and Why It Matters, talks to Rom...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

300 years of history: In numbers

The central task for the global economy since Adam Smith's times has been to provide for an exploding population. Life expectancy has doubled, the global headcount has risen more than ten-fold, yet economic output has in...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Should the UK government get active about economic inactivity?

Concerns about a rise in economic inactivity have prompted new policies aimed at discouraging early retirement and encouraging the labour force participation of women with young children. Such interventions would be more...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Accounting for imported and domestically generated inflation: Supply chains, monetary policy, and the UK's cost of living crisis

Inflation has increased sharply since the start of 2021 as the global economy grapples with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Swati Dhingra and Jack Page draw on a long tradition of...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and consumer food prices: May 2023 update

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation an...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Why the government's levelling-up plans need a reality check

The government has made tackling the UK's persistent spatial inequalities one of its top priorities. Yet progress has been slow or absent, because of insufficient investment, an underestimation of the scale of the challe...Read more...

Blog

LSE:

Why has productivity in the UK slowed? (video)

Growth and productivity are often talked about in UK politics but how are they linked and what effect do they have on the economy? John Van Reenen explains....Read more...

Chapter

The What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth: some lessons from the first ten years

in The What Works Centres: lessons and insights from an evidence movement

What can policy do to increase local economic growth? This is a question that has challenged decision makers and academics for decades. It's also a fundamental question today, when the UK government has made economic gro...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Frontline stories: designing furlough at HM Treasury

Richard Davies speaks to Clare Lombardelli, Chief Economic Adviser at HM Treasury and Joint Head of the Government Economic Service....Read more...

External publication

Low pay Britain 2023

After a decade and a half of relative economic decline, Britain needs a new economic strategy. This paper considers what it would mean to put good work centre stage. It requires us to go far beyond the narrow focus this ...Read more...

Blog

LSE:

What is levelling up? (video)

Neil Lee explains what levelling up is and how investing in more cities outside of London can help close the socio-economic gap between different areas in the UK....Read more...

Blog

LSE IQ:

How can we make homes more affordable? (Podcast)

In this LSE IQ episode on how we can make homes more affordable, Christian Hilber shares the reasons behind the UK's current housing affordability crisis, explaining the obstacles to building more houses as a way of over...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Banks, budgets and birthdays

Three years on from its inception, Economics Observatory has posted over 650 articles and collected more than 2.5 million page views. With tensions in the banking sector, a new first minister in Scotland, and the 25th an...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones and Innovation

In the Spring 2023 budget, the chancellor announced a newly revamped Investment Zones (IZs) programme as part of the UK's push for growth. This is a significantly scaled back version of the programme outlined by the prev...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

A budget for (green) growth? Unfortunately, not yet.

In light of the climate crisis, the energy and cost-of-living crises, and longstanding productivity problems urgently needed addressing, the Spring 2023 Budget was a key moment for the government to make progress in prov...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Train in vain? Skills, tasks, and training in the UK labour market

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt pledged that measures in the budget would help break down barriers that stop people working. One issue is how to ensure we have the skills the economy needs. Nye Cominetti, Rui Costa, Andrew Eyles,...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How has Brexit affected business investment in the UK?

Leaving the European Union has undoubtedly had effects on the UK economy. The most obvious ones will be on international trade. But Brexit might also have an impact on business investment, which is crucial for the econom...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How women are changing the face of economics

Economics continues to be a discipline dominated by men. Yet trailblazing female economists are working to change that. Myung Jin explains why it is important to improve diversity and equality within the field....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The paradox of vocational education

Despite a UK labour market that is hungry for skills, academic education has triumphed over training, apprenticeships and preparation for specific occupations. Alison Wolf looks at why vocational education continues to l...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Automation creates the space for entirely new jobs: the UK must adopt, adapt and improve

Fears about robots taking people's jobs are overplayed, say Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu. Their research shows the real fear to overcome should be Britain's lack of productivity-enhancing robots, software, artificial intell...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Growth and immigration: unpicking the confusion

More people in a country leads to a bigger economy, but not necessarily an improved standard of living. Alan Manning unpicks the complexities in the debate....Read more...

CentrePiece article

The recent evolution of apprenticeships

The quality of apprenticeships in England has improved in recent years, but take-up has dropped. Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura show how these changes mean that those from disadvantaged neighbourho...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Why have energy bills been rising?

The UK has been particularly exposed to the global energy crisis - partly due to the country's dependence on gas for heating and electricity generation, and partly its poorly insulated housing stock. After predictions th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Adopt, adapt and improve

Fears about robots taking people’s jobs are overplayed, say Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu. Their Economy 2030 Inquiry briefing shows the real fear to overcome should be Britain’s lack of productivity-enhancing robots, softwa...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Commute and thrive

The advent of commuting in 1930s London opened up opportunities to working-class people. Andrew Seltzer and Jonathan Wadsworth show how public transport boosts the labour market....Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Self-employment dwindles amid the cost-of-living crisis

As the Covid-19 crisis has made way for inflation and skyrocketing energy prices, the self-employed have not yet found their way out of the recent economic adversities. And many of them are now finding their way out of s...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee - UK plc 2050 (non-inquiry session)

The session examines what policies could restore competitiveness and address the country's intractable productivity and regional inequality problems while also reaching net zero....Read more...

Journal article

Applied Energy:

Breaking it down: a techno-economic assessment of the impact of battery pack design on disassembly costs

The electrification of the transport sector is a critical part of the net-zero transition. The mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) powered by lithium-ion batteries in the coming decade will inevitably lead to a larg...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How might changes in student visa provision affect UK immigration levels?

Net migration to the UK has reached record highs. International students are included in the immigration statistics and the government has implied it may seek to limit their future numbers. More research is needed to des...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Striking a balance on student migration to the UK

Net migration into the UK was 504,000 between June 2021 and June 2022, far higher than the previous record of 330,00. While the single biggest factor behind the rise in net migration was the new visas open to Ukrainians ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

UTOPIA and the City: the future of work in financial and professional services

In the midst of a reorganisation of work caused by the pandemic, there is no one-size-fits-all arrangement and employers are battling to find the right mix between office and home working. To learn more about how to get ...Read more...

Blog

LSE EUROPP:

Why political trust and voluntary compliance have been key to government pandemic responsiveness in Europe

The effectiveness of policy responses to Covid-19 has varied substantially across Europe. Drawing on new research, Timothy Besley and Christopher Dann illustrate how political trust and voluntary compliance have underpin...Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy: Forthcoming

Global value chains and domestic innovation

This paper explores how changes in both position and participation in Global Value Chain (GVC) networks affect firm innovation. The analysis combines matched patent-firm data for Japan with measures of GVC network centra...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Courage and leadership in 2023

The new economy we are entering into demands a high level of innovation that cannot be achieved by alpha leaders. Grace Lordan writes that successful leadership will require a lot of courage to do things differently, in ...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Tracking uncertainty in a rapidly changing global economic outlook

Tracking uncertainty at a high frequency is useful in the context of the multiple shocks that have hit the global economy over the past years and to disentangle the sources of uncertainty. This column presents a new mont...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Investments Zones can drive innovation if we learn from past mistakes

A key part of the previous government's plan for growth and currently being reformulated, Investment Zones have for decades been a policy aimed at delivering regional economic development, or levelling-up. Drawing on evi...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Firm inflation expectations in quantitative and text data

Inflation rates and short-term inflation expectations in the UK have increased significantly since 2021. This column uses quantitative and text data from the Decision Maker Panel to analyse the factors affecting inflatio...Read more...

Blog

BBC Radio 4:

Understand The Economy: 9. International Trade and Currency Markets (podcast)

Richard Davies is a guest speaker in this episode of Understand: The Economy, Episode 9. International Trade and Currency Markets. Tim Harford explains who wins and who loses if the pound is cheap against the dollar....Read more...

Blog

BBC Radio 4:

Understand The Economy: 6. Recessions (podcast)

What is a recession and what causes a recession? Tim Harford explains the role a government can play in pulling a country out of a recession. Richard Davies is a guest speaker in this episode....Read more...

Blog

Research Professional News:

Autumn statement delivered reassurance, but not vision

Investing in innovation is key to the future prosperity of an advanced economy such as the UK. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's 17 November autumn statement confirmed a commitment to raising public investments in science. Despit...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Autumn Statement: 'no one will be spared the pain'

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a difficult balancing act to try and delay many measures while doing enough in the short run to appease the markets. John Van Reenen comments briefly on what can be expected in the Autumn Sta...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

If the government cuts public spending, will volunteers step in?

The UK government is expected to respond to the country's economic woes with a wide-ranging programme of fiscal austerity. After the 2008/9 recession, the government accompanied its austerity programme with the idea of t...Read more...

Blog

Understand: The Economy:

Understand The Economy: 2. Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates (podcast)

In this episode, Tim Harford explains why the banks charge interest when we borrow money and explains why the Bank of England might put interest rates up. Richard Davies is a guest on this episode of Understand: The Econ...Read more...

Blog

BBC Radio 4:

Understand The Economy: 1. Inflation (podcast)

Understanding inflation can help understand why our shopping is getting more and more expensive and why prices rarely seem to come down. Tim Harford explains why the inflation figure we see on the TV might not reflect th...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Clean technologies for growth and equity

Public investment in developing energy sources that don't cause climate change is a strategy for economic growth that could also contribute to the UK's levelling up agenda, says Ralf Martin. His analysis indicates that s...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Nothing is booming in Britain, except uncertainty. This is not the time to cut public investment in research

Britain has suffered from a turbulent policy environment for a while. Following chancellor Jeremy Hunt's reversal of nearly all of the mini-budget tax measures and reigned in energy support, difficult spending cuts are c...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy :

Why have energy bills in the UK been rising?

The UK is particularly exposed to the energy crisis sweeping across the world. After predictions that annual household bills were due to rise from around £1,000 to £3,500 in October 2022, the government announced it woul...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Stagnation nation

Even before the cost of living crisis, a toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was threatening UK living standards, particularly for families on low and middle incomes. The Economy 2030 Inquiry is examinin...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones: who benefits?

In this final blog of the week's series on Investment Zones, Henry Overman highlights issues local and national governments may face as they negotiate, such as substitution of jobs, leakage, and who benefits from Investm...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones, deadweight, and displacement

Following his previous blog on bidding for Investment Zones in the UK and that it should be a 'no-brainer', Henry Overman outlines in detail the existing theory and evidence on deadweight and displacement - two core issu...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones: bid now, reflect later

With just three days left to draft initial bids for Investment Zones around the UK, Henry Overman addresses questions and concerns of some local areas still asking whether they should be bidding to host zones. Given the ...Read more...

Blog

LSE:

Inflation: the energy crisis explained (video)

Rising energy bills drive up the cost of living. LSE's Anna Valero explains what led to the current energy crisis and how the transition to net zero emissions will help. ...Read more...

Blog

CEPR & VideoVox Economics:

Why do some regions fail to recover from economic shocks? (video)

Recorded at CEPR's June Paris Symposium, Tony Venables presents his research on those regional disparities in the UK which originated in the 1970s through negative trade and technology shocks and whose long run consequen...Read more...

Blog

Harvard Business Review:

The UK economic crisis might not be a one-off

Markets have reacted poorly to the UK government's new "mini-budget" combining energy price caps with tax cuts for the well off. The government's search for a quick fix to economic growth is a mistake. In fact, restartin...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The link between growth and immigration: unpicking the confusion

More people in a country leads to a bigger economy, but not necessarily an improved standard of living. Alan Manning unpicks the complexities in the debate....Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What's happening to the UK economy?

Recently, the UK saw concerns that the pound would sink to parity with the dollar, turmoil in the bond market and the Bank of England forced to step in. What caused the financial market gyrations? Using interactive chart...Read more...

Blog

The Conversation:

Research into 1930s commuting in London shows how public transport boosts the labour market

An argument to justify public transport closures has often been lack of profitability for the service provider. However, Andrew J. Seltzer and Jonathan Wadsworth find that such discussions often miss much of the full val...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment zones and the problem of displacement

In September 2022, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng set out plans for 'Investment Zones' as the part of the government's renewed focus on growth. A crucial question around area based initiatives is the extent to which growth in...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The shortest economic suicide note in history? How the mini-budget fails to help long-run growth

The UK has recently announced tax cuts and spending increases which exceed those implemented during the pandemic. John Van Reenen believes a reckoning will be unavoidable. He writes that policies for good growth are a lo...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Energy costs: views of leading economists on windfall taxes and consumer price caps

Proposed policy responses to steeply rising energy costs include windfall taxes, and caps on consumer energy prices. Asked whether an energy price cap would be a more appropriate immediate response to inflation than rais...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Is inflation avoidable?

Inflation in the UK is at a 40 year high, with prices rising across the economy. Shoppers can look for cheaper products, but many are already buying the lowest-cost options and the prices of those bargains are going up f...Read more...

Blog

The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy:

Trade policy, regional disparities, and inclusive growth

Places matter to people. For many people, the place where they grow up will become the place where they live and work. Many countries experience regional disparities in economic performance that are profound and persiste...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Lessons from a robust evaluation of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme

Eat Out to Help Out had a limited effect on footfall and recruitment. Supporting businesses in any context (Covid-19, energy crisis, etc.) needs consideration of effective mechanisms for encouraging programme take-up and...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

What should the next UK prime minister do?

Britain faces crises in energy and productivity, both of which have been crushing people's living standards. However, neither is being addressed by the two leadership candidates, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. Anna Valero an...Read more...

Journal article

Applied Energy:

Optimising the geospatial configuration of a future lithium-ion battery recycling industry in the transition to electric vehicles and a circular economy

Rapid electrification of the transport system will generate substantial volumes of Lithium-ion-battery (LiB) waste as batteries reach their end-of-life. Much attention focuses on the recycling processes, neglecting a bro...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Firming up price inflation

Inflation rates in the UK and US are currently at their highest levels in over 30 years. This column uses firm-level data from the Decision Maker Panel to study inflation dynamics in the UK, and in particular since the s...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The UK must recognise its enduring economic strengths

A decade of stagnant living standards, weak productivity and low investment combined with a coming decade of major change - driven by Covid-19, Brexit and the need for accelerated action on Net Zero - mean that it is cru...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Are wages keeping up with the cost of living?

There is currently much debate about whether pay should keep pace with either productivity or inflation. How we measure price growth has a big influence on what we observe, shedding light on how different parts of the ec...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Britain, a services superpower sinking into stagnation

British households have low levels of financial resilience and are forecast a sluggish living standards recovery coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, Britain is the result of an economy defined by the low grow...Read more...

Blog

IFS Explainer:

Why is inequality in the labour market growing? (video)

The world of work is changing. There have been huge shifts in the kinds of work we do and the types of organisations we work for. What has been happening to inequalities in the UK's labour market? What have been the imp...Read more...

External publication

The Conservative leadership contest: a guide to the policy landscape:

Housing and Planning

With the Conservative leadership contest underway, what is the country as a whole to make of the various pledges being made by the remaining candidates? What promises are credible? What will be the impact of the policies...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Falling behind, the self-employed would sacrifice 10% of their income for an insurance scheme

Two years after the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, incomes of the self-employed in the UK are still well below their pre-pandemic levels. The number of self-employed workers dropped during the crisis and has not yet r...Read more...

Blog

The Overview:

Has the pandemic changed the workplace forever? (podcast)

Millions of US workers are quitting or changing jobs in an ongoing trend dubbed the Great Resignation. With job vacancies rising to record highs on both sides of the Atlantic, is the UK also facing a resignations surge? ...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Inflation update: what's driving the cost of living crisis?

Prices in the UK continue to rise, with the Consumer Price Index up 9.4% in June. A closer look at the underlying data shows that more items are going up in price than are going down, suggesting high inflation could be h...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics

We study infectious diseases using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model with endogenous cross-region human mobility. Individuals weigh the risk of infection against economic opportunities when moving across re...Read more...

External publication

Stagnation nation: navigating a route to a fairer and more prosperous Britain

The UK has great strengths, but is over a decade into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was posing challenges for low-to-middle income Britain's living standards even before...Read more...

Blog

VoxTalks Economics:

Levelling up Europe's left-behind places (podcast)

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: Inequality isn't just between individuals, but between regions too. Henry Overman explains to Tim Phillips why these disparities exist, why they are so persistent, and whether ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Green growth and electric vehicles: the role of recycling

The UK needs an electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling industry. This could strengthen the British EV supply chain and support the future development of UK-based gigafactories (large-scale battery factories) and electri...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Bridging the productivity gap between different areas in the UK

An economic strategy that helps the UK respond to change and tackle stagnant living standards and weak productivity will need to address stubborn spatial disparities in economic performance across the UK. Addressing thes...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Net zero transition to mean significant change for 1.3 million workers

The UK's experience of structural change through deindustrialisation during the 1970s and 1980s drove up unemployment, concentrated among particular parts of the population, and left deep scars on some parts of the count...Read more...

External publication

Bridging the gap

An economic strategy that helps the UK respond to change and tackle stagnant living standards and productivity will need to address the stubborn spatial disparities in economic performance across the UK. Addressing these...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What would it take to level up the UK?

The government's levelling up agenda seeks to reduce disparities across the UK. Policies to boost economic performance will need to attract workers and firms away from London and the South East and improve opportunities ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will exacerbate long-term challenges facing the UK economy

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in half a century. The impact won't be a one-off event. Structural changes will take place over the long term, as capital a...Read more...

Chapter

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade

in The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Low pay and insecurity in the UK labour market

Minimum wage increases have driven down the incidence of low hourly pay, but there has been much less progress elsewhere for low earners. Low pay is widespread among the self-employed, who do not benefit from the minimum...Read more...

CentrePiece article

How Brexit has raised UK food prices

Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Trade disruptions in the wake of Brexit

A dramatic fall in the value of UK imports from the European Union relative to the rest of the world occurred when the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into effect. What's more, according to research by R...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The economics of levelling up

There is an economic tension at the heart of the government’s plans for 'levelling up' the UK, according to CEP's research director Henry Overman. He argues that getting serious about helping people to access good job op...Read more...

External publication

Net zero jobs

The Government's commitment to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will mean investment, and change, across the economy: from the decarbonisation of buildings and surface transport, to shifts in diet, avi...Read more...

Blog

Centre for European Reform:

Is Brexit to blame for Britain's economic woes? (podcast)

Thomas Sampson, of the London School of Economics, and John Springford, the CER's deputy director, discuss and compare their findings on how Brexit has affected UK goods trade and inflation, and John shares his latest re...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Why is it so difficult to tackle the lack of affordable housing?

Boris Johnson has pledged that more people will be helped onto the property ladder and that the supply of housing will be improved. Christian Hilber and Olivier Schoni consider the history of housing policy and the chall...Read more...

Blog

The Sutton Trust:

Gloomy prospects for social mobility in the pandemic era

Lee Elliot Major and Andrew Eyles explain how a gap in missed education between richer and poorer children was exacerbated by stark home learning divides and the likely consequences for social mobility....Read more...

External publication

Social mobility: past, present and future

Andrew Eyles, Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin forecast that relative income mobility levels in the UK could fall by as much as 12%, driven by learning loss in schools....Read more...

External publication

Low pay Britain 2022

This edition of Low Pay Britain is the Resolution Foundation's twelfth annual report taking stock of the state of low pay. Recent editions have focused on the short-term impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on low paid workers...Read more...

Blog

Programme on Innovation and Diffusion Blog:

Risk of Business Failure - POID Tracker - Stalled Covid Recovery

Research shows that small firms are more likely to report they are at risk of failing in recent months, amid growing concerns about challenges such as Brexit controls, the Ukraine crisis and energy price hikes....Read more...

External publication

Growing clean

This report, the 19th report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry, provides a hard-headed assessment of the opportunities presented to UK plc by the move to net zero, and considers how best these can be unlocked. It does this by...Read more...

External publication

Enduring strengths

A decade of stagnant living standards, weak productivity and low investment combined with a coming decade of major change - driven by Covid-19, Brexit and Net Zero - mean that it is crucial for the UK to renew its econom...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit: the major trade disruption came after the UK-EU agreement took effect in 2021

The impact of Brexit on UK trade is a highly contested topic. Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer, and Thomas Sampson summarise the findings of new research on how Brexit has affected the UK's goods trade with ...Read more...

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Levelling up education

Andrew Eyles examines the UK's levelling up white paper, explaining how the plans for education may need to go further to be fully effective....Read more...

CEP Insights

Jobs and wages

Most working-age adults depend on earnings from jobs as their main source of income. Understanding the labour market has always been a central part of research at CEP and its predecessor the Centre for Labour Economics....Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy :

No inventor is an island: social connectedness and the geography of knowledge flows in the US

Do informal social ties connecting inventors across distant places promote knowledge flows between them? To measure informal ties, we use a new and direct index of social connectedness of regions based on aggregate Faceb...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How might Scottish independence affect the costs of international trade?

If Scotland were to become an independent country, there would be a new international border with the rest of the UK. Thomas Sampson considers how additional costs that are inevitably created by borders would affect trad...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

'Levelling-up': the government's plans aren't enough to promote economic growth and tackle inequality

The government's levelling-up plan dodges the hard choices says Henry Overman. Countering the economic forces behind the UK's spatial disparities requires addressing multiple barriers and allowing differing approaches - ...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How might an independent Scotland build fiscal capacity?

Tim Besley and Chris Dann explain how developing a sense of common purpose is critical for nation-building - and would be a key issue for an independent Scotland....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Expecting Brexit

The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK's membership of the world's deepest economic integration agreement. This paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Brexit referendu...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

The value of online gig economy platforms

The gig economy and online labour platforms often trade off increased flexibility for lower employment security. Christopher Stanton and Catherine Thomas show how traditional labour market regulations, such as minimum wa...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

Covid has hit social mobility in the UK, and young people's prospects are shrinking

The economic impact of Covid has hit young people, and especially poorer young people, harder than others. Andrew Eyles assesses the extent of the shock and what it means for social mobility, which was already in decline...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Real-time updates on the UK economy: trends, expectations and implications from business survey data

Covid-19 has caused substantial shocks to the UK economy, highlighting a need for real-time data to analyse trends. We use monthly business survey data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to document recent ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

When oligopolies confuse consumers, beware the rise of confusopoly

Confusing consumers can be profitable for companies, in particular in a competitive market where they can hardly increase their prices without losing their consumers. Ambre Nicolle, Christos Genakos, and Tobias Kretschme...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Covid-19 spurred a wave of new technology adoption by UK businesses

The pandemic spurred three-quarters of firms to adopt new technologies, and businesses are keen to continue with this innovation mindset, which could be harnessed to fulfil the UK's net zero commitments. Anna Valero, Cap...Read more...

External publication

Business time

The UK is set for a decade of major change, with private sector firms in the front line. How ready are they for this change? What form should policy towards business take within a new economic strategy for the UK? This r...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

The Net Zero Strategy provides a foundation which now needs to be cemented in investment, tax, and regulatory decisions

The UK government has delivered on its promise to publish a strategy for driving the country's economy towards net zero emissions by 2050. Esin Serin and Anna Valero write that the economy-wide Net Zero Strategy provides...Read more...

CEP report

Are 'green' jobs good jobs?

The transition to net-zero will have far-reaching but unequal effects, as 'dirty' jobs disappear while new jobs aligned with or supportive of the net-zero objective - which we refer to as 'green' - are created. As govern...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Pandemic shock and economic divergence: political economy before and after the black death

We document how the Black Death activated politics and led to economic divergence within Europe. Before the pandemic, economic development was similar in Eastern and Western German cities despite greater political fragme...Read more...

Journal article

Small Business Economics:

Soft and hard information in equity crowdfunding: network effects in the digitalization of entrepreneurial finance

As a digital financial innovation, equity crowdfunding (ECF) allows investors to exploit the complementarity of information provision and network effects in a reduced transaction cost environment. We build on the underly...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Jobs, growth, and productivity after coronavirus

The Committee will examine how the Government can reduce and mitigate economic scarring and job losses after the pandemic, how much difference the Government can make to economic growth, and what has caused the UK's prod...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Ethnic minorities and the UK labour market

Contrary to the impression given by the Sewell Report, there has been little change in disparities in pay, employment and unemployment among different ethnic groups in the UK over the past 25 years. Indeed, as analysis o...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

The 2020s will be a crunch decade that will determine the UK's trajectory into the mid-21st century

As vaccines roll out and restrictions are lifted, public debate is turning to the economic recovery from Covid-19 and the deepest annual downturn for 300 years that came in its wake. But viewing the years ahead simply as...Read more...

External publication

The UK's decisive decade: the launch report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry

This report marks the launch of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a landmark collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Found...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

The persistent consequences of adverse shocks: how the 1970s shaped UK regional inequality

The economic shocks experienced by the UK economy in the 1970s brought major changes in the spatial distribution of employment rates in the UK. This paper traces the long-run implications of these changes, suggesting tha...Read more...

Journal article

European Economic Review:

Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: The UK-China case

We exploit the recent surge in Chinese export growth to study the effects of a trade shock on workers and firms in a foreign market, the UK, in the period 2000–2007. We find that individuals initially employed in sectors...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Does benchmarking help firms grow?

Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim explores the evidence on the impact of benchmarking - measuring and comparing performance across and within firms. Finding that, for such a popular approach, it's surprising how little we know about t...Read more...

External publication

Brexit and beyond:

Brexit and UK trade: what next?

Brexit is expected to make the UK poorer in the long run compared to remaining an EU member. Although the analysis used to reach this conclusion is complex, most forecasts depend upon the same economic logic. Brexit will...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: the UK-China case

We exploit the recent surge in Chinese export growth to study the effects of a trade shock on workers and firms in a foreign market, the UK, in the period 2000-2007. We find that individuals initially employed in sectors...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Colonial legacies: Shaping African cities

Institutions persisting from colonial rule affect the spatial structure and conditions under which 100s of millions of people live in Sub-saharan African cities. In a sample of 318 cities, Francophone cities have more co...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Innovation for a strong and sustainable recovery

In the recovery from Covid-19, innovation and diffusion will be key to addressing several structural challenges facing the UK economy. These include improving the UK�s longstanding poor productivity performance, addres...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Covid-19 has disrupted businesses' ability to prepare for Brexit, but the lack of clarity on the UK-EU relationship is worse

Almost half of businesses report that COVID-19 has negatively affected their ability to prepare for Brexit. More than half listed uncertainty on the future arrangements between the UK and EU as a limitation on their abil...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of Covid - it must be delayed

Whether we face Hard Brexit or No Deal, the long-run costs to the economy are likely to be more than twice that of COVID-19 - at least 2,000 GBP per person, warns John Van Reenen (LSE). He advocates delaying the exit fr...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Monetary financing: why the government should not be worrying about the deficit

Alan Manning writes that government should stop worrying about the current deficit, financing it less by issuing debt though being clear that this is a temporary policy for exceptional circumstances. He explains how mone...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Solo self-employment and alternative work arrangements: a cross-country perspective on the changing composition of jobs

The nature of self-employment is changing in most OECD countries. Solo self-employment is increasing relative to self-employment with dependent employees, often being associated with the development of gig economy work a...Read more...

External publication

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Arla Foods UK has commissioned LSE Consulting's Trade Policy Hub to deliver a study on the vulnerabilities of supply chains in the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit. This study provides a follow up to th...Read more...

Journal article

CESifo Forum:

The Gig Economy Beyond Local Services and Transportation

The gig economy characterizes a wide variety of short-term freelance work, typically intermediated via online platforms that facilitate matching between buyers and providers. The widespread growth of ride-sharing platfor...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Generalized linear competition: from pass-through to policy

Economic policy and shifts in input market prices often have significant effects on the marginal costs of firms and can prompt strategic responses that make their impact hard to predict. We introduce "generalized linear ...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Strategy, investment and policy for a strong and sustainable recovery: an action plan

The UK and the world have suffered disruption and hardship from the COVID-19 pandemic on an immense scale. Together with the tragic consequences of the health crisis, there is now a real risk of protracted global depress...Read more...

Journal article

Behavioural Public Policy:

A happy choice: wellbeing as the goal of government

In this article, we lay out the basic case for wellbeing as the goal of government. We briefly review the history of this idea, which goes back to the ancient Greeks and was the acknowledged ideal of the Enlightenment. W...Read more...

Journal article

Behavioural Public Policy:

A happy choice: a response to the responses

We are very happy to see the engagement of so many eminent scholars in our field with our modest proposal for how to proceed with wellbeing policy formation in the UK. We are also heartened by the apparent endorsement of...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

The effects of supporting local business: evidence from the UK

This paper assesses the effects of a significant place-based intervention that targeted local businesses in deprived areas in the UK. To gain identification, we use data at a fine spatial scale and a regression discontin...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

O brother, where start thou? Sibling spillovers on college and major choice in four countries

Family and social networks are widely believed to influence important life decisions but identifying their causal effects is notoriously difficult. Using admissions thresholds that directly affect older but not younger s...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The UK's self-employed workers: who they are and what they need

One in seven people in the UK workforce is now in self-employment – but this is a very diverse community. Jack Blundell is developing a typology of self-employed workers, which can then be used to assess differences in h...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Public goods institutions, human capital, and growth: Evidence from german history

What are the origins and consequences of the state as a provider of public goods? We study public goods provision established through new laws in German cities during the 1500s. Cities that adopted the laws subsequently ...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Has the Financial Crisis Undermined Credit Reallocation in the United Kingdom?

The global financial crisis and its aftermath heightened awareness of the role of credit frictions in affecting aggregate economic performance. An important question is whether capital is being allocated to its most prod...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Clusters in UK self-employment

UK Self-employment has soared in recent years. With existing labour market policy designed to cater for conventional employee relationships, policymakers in this field are increasingly seeking to better understand these ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#GE2019Economists: the research evidence on key issues for voters in the 2019 UK General Election

The general election of 2019 was called after negotiations over how the UK should leave the European Union became increasingly tortuous. While Brexit may have been the trigger for the election, it was far from being the ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration

Immigration remains a highly contentious issue and its purported effects on the labour market and the wider economy are still highly contested. The discussion in this briefing is intended as a short overview of what we k...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A happy choice: wellbeing as the goal of government

In this article, we lay out the basic case for wellbeing as the goal of government. We briefly review the history of this idea, which goes back to the ancient Greeks and was the acknowledged ideal of the Enlightenment. W...Read more...

External publication

Homes on the right tracks

Technically, there is an easy solution to the UK crisis of housing supply: find more land for housing. This is not a physical problem but a political one. The land is there but policies and habits of thought prevent its ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Residential mobility in the UK: how distance and local economic conditions drive residential choices

Monica Langella and Alan Manning find that high unemployment in an area induces people to move away, and has an even stronger effect on the attractiveness of that area to potential movers. They also find that younger and...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

The effect of house prices on household borrowing: A new approach

We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the United Kingdom and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and b...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Amplifying Islamophobic hate crime: UK media in the wake of terror attacks

Ria Ivandic,Tom Kirchmaier, and Stephen Machin study the empirical connections between local anti-Muslim hate crimes and international jihadi terror attacks. They find that local Muslim populations face a media-magnified...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Childhood circumstances and young adult outcomes: the role of parental financial problems

Is there a relationship between childhood circumstances and outcomes later on in life? Andrew E. Clark, Conchita D’Ambrosio, and Marta Barazzetta consider the cognitive and non-cognitive consequences on young adults who ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Missing trade in tasks: employer outsourcing in the gig economy

Only a small share of employers in high-wage locations procure services from abroad. We document heterogeneous employer adoption of an online labor market that facilitates trade in tasks with global workers. Job vacancie...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Sustainable growth in the UK: seizing opportunities from technological change and the transition to a low-carbon economy

An overarching strategy for sustainable growth is required to address the dual challenges of restoring productivity growth and managing a transition to a low-carbon economy – priorities in both the UK and other G20 count...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Universities and industrial strategy in the UK: review of evidence and implications for policy

As producers of human capital, innovation and as large institutions in their own right, UK universities can make important contributions across the five foundations that underpin the government's Industrial Strategy: peo...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Unlocking SME productivity: review of recent evidence and implications for the UK’s industrial strategy

Improving productivity is one of the main goals of the government's Industrial Strategy. Since the UK is a nation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the question arises whether SMEs have a role to play in indu...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Local Economic Effects of Brexit: Factsheet

Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Do Apprenticeships Pay? Evidence for England

The importance of apprenticeships for early labour market transitions varies across countries and over time. In recent times, there has been a policy drive to increase the number of people undertaking apprenticeships in ...Read more...

CEP report

Urban Capacity and Economic Output

This report was commissioned by the National Infrastructure Commission as part of the evidence base for the National Infrastructure Assessment. The views expressed and recommendations set out in this report are the autho...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Apprenticeships in England: what does research tell us?

Read more...

Journal article

Renewal: a journal of social democracy:

The Everyday Economy and the next economic settlement

Review of Rachel Reeves, The Everyday Economy, 2018, https://www.scribd.com/document/374425087/Rachel-Reeves-TheEveryday-Economy...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

The limits of political compromise: Debt ceilings and political turnover

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political turnover in an economy where incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level due to rent-seeking motives. P...Read more...

Blog

ESRC blog:

Becoming a Research Institute: the Centre for Economic Performance

by Stephen Machin As Director of the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at LSE, I am delighted that the Centre has been named as one of the two inaugural ESRC Research Institutes. This is testament to the achievements...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

It is now widely recognised that human capital accumulation and research and development (R&D) are key drivers of economic growth, as is documented in most standard textbooks (e.g. Acemoglu, 2007; Romer, 1996). Estimates...Read more...

CVER Briefing Note

Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

Immigration, trade and productivity in services: Evidence from U.K. firms

This paper explores the impact of immigrants on the imports, exports and productivity of service-producing firms in the U.K. Immigrants may substitute for imported intermediate inputs (offshore production) and they may i...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of World Business:

Emerging Economy MNEs: How does home country munificence matter?

Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) from emerging economies (EEs) are establishing operations in advanced economies (AEs), apparently departing from traditional models of internationalization. We explore an under-explored d...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic History:

Voting behavior and public employment in Nazi Germany

This article analyzes whether the German National Socialists used economic policies to reward their voters after coming to power in 1933. Using newly-collected data on public employment from the German censuses in 1925, ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Regional Science:

A review of volume 5 of the Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics

[No abstract available]...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Industry in Britain: an atlas

The UK’s financial services industry is not nearly as London-centric as the creative industries. Rather than the South East of England being the country’s productivity engine, it is a band stretching west from the capita...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Where industry is strong and where it’s weak – key facts of UK business geography

Financial services aren’t as London-centric as the creative industries, and the coast-inland divide is growing, write Sandra Bernick, Richard Davies, and Anna Valero. The UK’s financial services industry is not nearly as...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Game of Zones: The Political Economy of Conservation Areas

We develop a simple theory of the conservation area designation process in which we postulate that the level of designation is chosen to comply with interests of local homeowners. Conservation areas provide benefits to l...Read more...

CEP report

Industry in Britain - an atlas

Living near a productive company can have considerable economic benefits. It means the chance of well-paid jobs, creates opportunities for suppliers of goods and services, and can be a boost to local retailers. This comm...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Towards a new UK industrial strategy

The regulation of business has been a rollercoaster ride for the UK over the past 20 years. Drawing on their work with the LSE Growth Commission, Anna Valero and Richard Davies outline an opportunity to build a new syste...Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy:

The long-term effect of digital innovation on bank performance: An empirical study of SWIFT adoption in financial services

We examine the impact on bank performance of the adoption of SWIFT, a network-based technological infrastructure and set of standards for worldwide interbank telecommunication. We construct a new longitudinal dataset of ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit and the UK Economy

This general election is pitched as the ‘Brexit Election’, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). The Conservatives and Labour have both...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration and the UK Economy

Immigration to the UK has grown a lot over the last 20 years and a significant fraction of this growth has been from other EU countries, especially after 2004 and the accession of the eight East European countries (‘A8’)...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers’ real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis

On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union. We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immigratio...Read more...

Blog

ESRC blog:

How English care homes have coped with the National Living Wage

Giulia Giupponi is an ESRC-funded PhD student at the London School of Economics and a research assistant at the Centre for Economic Performance. Stephen Machin is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Distributive Politics Inside the City? The Political Economy of Spain's Plan E

We study the allocation of investment projects by municipal governments across groups of voters using data from a fiscal stimulus program carried out in Spain between 2009 and 2011. This program provided municipalities w...Read more...

CEP report

UK growth: a new chapter

The UK Economy is at a critical juncture. Leaving the EU creates economic challenges that necessitate widespread policy change. But this also generates an opportunity to tackle some of the long-standing challenges which ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The first priority in the UK government’s plans for Brexit trade negotiations should be to agree a transitional deal to cover its relations with the European Union (EU) until a long-term agreement is reached. What’s more...Read more...

Journal article

Review of International Economics:

The Geometry of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations in International Trade

Gravity equations in trade imply that trade flows are proportional to the size of a country and inversely proportional to distance. This paper develops the analogy of gravity in physics with gravity in trade and provides...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Does immigration harm the job prospects of the UK-born? Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Who voted Leave?

If EU immigration had remained at its 1991 level, the Leave vote share may have been considerably lower. That is one of the conclusions of CEP research by Monica Langella and Professor Alan Manning, which explores the ef...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The aftermath of the Brexit vote – the verdict from a derided expert

John Van Reenen was disappointed but not surprised by the UK’s vote to Leave the EU. Whilst his own research predicts serious economic and political damage in the case of Brexit, he thought a Leave vote was a real possib...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas

Individual demographics had a huge effect in determining the outcome of the referendum, but the characteristics of local areas mattered as well, explain Monica Langella and Alan Manning. Immigration, the decline in manuf...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Why leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

The economic consequences of leaving the EU have been a central focus of the referendum campaign. As June 23 draws near, Jagjit Chadha, Paul Johnson and John Van Reenen bring together the conclusions from their research ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the final assessment

John Van Reenen summarises the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

A major argument of Brexit campaigners is that leaving the European Union would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants, who they claim hurt the jobs and pay of native-born workers. CEP research shows that E...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

Investment from overseas brings many benefits to the UK economy, including higher pay and productivity. According to CEP research, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment in th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

For over two years, a CEP research team has been studying the likely impact on the living standards of UK households of a referendum vote to leave the European Union. The first of three reports summarised here focuses on...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity

There is a degree of consensus among economists that a Brexit will make us worse off. The exception is recent work by Economists for Brexit. Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic an...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

A reduction in immigration from the European Union (EU) following a vote for Brexit would not lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in the UK. Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury’s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much

For over two years, a research team at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been studying the likely impact of the UK leaving the European Union. Their latest report focuses on the impact of ‘Brexit’ through cha...Read more...

CEP report

Why Governments Won't Invest

The UK Government is currently exerting a sharp and tightening squeeze on public investment at a time when borrowing for public investment has never, historically, been cheaper with interest rates close to zero in real t...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Response to the Sub-Committee on Education, Skills and the Economy for the Apprenticeships Inquiry

Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Response to the Sub-Committee on Education, Skills and the Economy for the Careers Advice Inquiry

Read more...

Blog

ESRC blog:

Making the world a happier place

Professor Lord Richard Layard directs the Wellbeing Programme at the ESRC Centre for Economic Performance, and has made major contributions on unemployment, inflation, inequality and post-Communist reform. Author of the ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Corbyn and the political economy of nostalgia

Voting for Jeremy Corbyn as leader is a gut reaction to Labour’s electoral defeat. Corbyn does point to some real economic problems facing Britain but his policies are based largely on the kind of wishful thinking that i...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Productivity Plan: A sound framework, but gaps in policy persist. More is needed to get productivity growing again

Following the summer budget, the government released a productivity plan aimed at dealing with a chronic issue facing the UK’s economy. Anna Valero and John Van Reenen review the plan, writing that overall the plan is br...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Summer budget 2015: Osborne is right to raise wages, but a clearer productivity plan is required

Yesterday, George Osborne delivered the new government’s first budget in which he surprised many by hiking the minimum wage significantly. John Van Reenen reviews the measures introduced, writing that the Chancellor is r...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Planes, Trains and Automobiles: The Economic Impact of Transport Infrastructure

In the run up to the 2015 general election, the main political parties have very mixed views as to what should be done about transport in the UK. Big transport investment proposals - expansion of London's airports and hi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Exploring the Geography of China's Airport Networks: A Hybrid Complex-Network Approach

Air networks are normal examples of transportation systems among ubiquitous big data networks in the dynamic nature. This is particularly the case in developing countries with rapid airport network expansions. This paper...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Budget 2015: What the Chancellor said and didn’t say

Who would have thought an election was around the corner? John Van Reenen looks at what George Osborne had to say in the budget speech as well as what he didn’t say; the Chancellor neither mentioned the productivity prob...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Austerity in the UK: past, present and future

In this article, John Van Reenen looks at the UK’s economic performance since the global financial crisis and assesses the impact of austerity policies. He also examines the fiscal plans of the three major parties over t...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Voting behaviour and public employment in Nazi Germany

This paper analyses whether the German National Socialists used economic policies to reward their voters after their rise to power in 1933. Using data on public employment in the armed forces, public administrations and ...Read more...

Journal article

The World Bank Economic Review:

The political economyof trade policy: Gone for good? Subsidies with export share requirements in China: 2002-13

This paper presents a simple model of subsidies with export share requirements (ESR) in a heterogeneous firm environment. A two-country general equilibrium version of the model with a single 100% ESR is calibrated using ...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Mapping information economy businesses with big data: findings for the UK

Governments around the world want to develop their ICT and digital industries. Policymakers thus need a clear sense of the size and characteristics of digital businesses, but this is hard to do with conventional datasets...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The Scottish Referendum: Breaking Up is Hard – and expensive - to Do

The Scottish Referendum: CEP Director John Van Reenen on why with a 'YES' vote, the Scottish people will be poorer. A lot poorer...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

Leaving the European Union would likely have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economy

How would leaving the EU affect the UK’s economy? Gianmarco Ottaviano, João Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen outline findings from a new report on the economic consequences of a ‘Brexit’. They indicate th...Read more...

Blog

LSE American Politics and Policy Blog:

Firms with more structured management practices are more productive, innovative and have faster employment growth.

In 2010, the US Census Bureau conducted the first large-scale survey of management practices in America, gathering data on more than 30,000 manufacturing plants. Nicholas Bloom and colleagues find strong links between es...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The political economy of inclusive rural growth

Abstract Commentators on the `East Asian Miracle' of inclusive growth have often pointed toward shared rural growth policies. But why were these policies not chosen elsewhere? This paper models voters who invest in eithe...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Mrs Thatcher's industrial legacy

John Van Reenen examines the 'unbalancing' of Britain's economy away from manufacturing since 1979....Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

The state of the UK economy: Diagnosis, prognosis and recommended treatment

The UK economy has experienced a prolonged period of weakness over the last five years. John Van Reenen writes that the real problems for the UK are inadequate long-run investment in infrastructure, innovation and human ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Lovely and lousy jobs

The phenomenon of ‘job polarisation’ is increasing inequality as the labour market splits into high- and low-wage work. According to Alan Manning, who coined the term a decade ago, we cannot ignore job polarisation – but...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Here Be Startups: Exploring a young digital cluster in Inner East London

The digital industries cluster known as 'Silicon Roundabout' has been quietly growing in East London since the 1990s. Now rebranded 'Tech City', it is now the focus of huge public and government attention. National and l...Read more...

Book

Investing for Prosperity
A manifesto for growth

Why is economic growth such a rare and elusive butterfly in the UK garden? What institutions and policies are needed to sustain UK economic growth in the dynamic global economy of the twenty-first century? After yea...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

UK Spending Review 2013: A triumph of politics over reason?

The UK’s Spending Review has been forced on the British Chancellor because weak economic growth has blown a hole in the deficit reduction programme. John Van Reenen welcomes the partial reversal of the hugely damaging cu...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

No Triple Dip does not mean a good recovery for the UK

John Van Reenen reacts to the news this week that the UK has avoided economic contraction in the last quarter. Whilst Osborne may see this as cause to celebrate, there is nothing commendable about an economy that continu...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

The economic legacy of Margaret Thatcher is a mixed bag

John Van Reenen analyses the economic legacy of Margaret Thatcher. In the late 1970s, when the UK was behind other developed nations in terms of material wellbeing, her supply side policies spurred economic revival. Ther...Read more...

CEP report

Investing for Prosperity: Skills, Infrastructure and Innovation

What institutions and policies are needed to sustain UK economic growth in the dynamic world economy of the twentyfirst century? After years of inadequate investment in skills, infrastructure and innovation, there are lo...Read more...

CEP report

Fiscal consolidation during a depression

In 2009-10, the UK's budget deficit was about 11 per cent of GDP. A credible plan for fiscal consolidation was introduced in the UK over the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2016-17. In this paper, we assess the impact of the sca...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Market Leadership Through Technology - Backward Compatibility in the U.S. Handheld Video Game Industry

The introduction of a new product generation forces incumbents in network industries to rebuild their installed base to maintain an advantage over potential entrants. We study if backward compatibility moderates this pro...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A Model of Equilibrium Institutions

Institutions that serve the interests of an elite are often cited as an important reason for poor economic performance. This paper builds a model of institutions that allocate resources and power to maximize the payoff o...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Where is the Economics in Spatial Econometrics?

Spatial econometrics has been criticized by some economists because some model specifications have been driven by data-analytic considerations rather than having a firm foundation in economic theory. In particular this a...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

From ‘Plan B’ to ‘Plan V’: what the UK economy needs to reboot and rebalance growth

With the threat of stagflation and interest rate rises, the current economic climate shows little sign of improvement in the near future. John Van Reenen finds that the government’s severe austerity programme, with its v...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Seesaw in the Air: Interconnection Regulation and the Structure of Mobile Tariffs

Interconnection rates are a key variable in telecommunications markets. Every call that is placed must be terminated by the network of the receiving party, thus the termination end has the characteristic of an economic b...Read more...

Book

The Labour Market in Winter
The State of Working Britain

This collection of essays - by leading economic experts on the UK labour market - provides an overview of the key issues concerning the performance of the labour market, and the policy issues surrounding it, with a f...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

To avoid creating a ‘lost generation’, with perhaps a fifth of all 18 year olds unemployed and outside training, a new push on apprenticeships would help

With record numbers of young people not gaining university places, the viability of apprenticeships could make a huge difference in preventing a ‘lost generation’ out of touch with the labour market. Dr Hilary Steedman o...Read more...

Book

The Future of Finance
The LSE Report

This book presents a novel approach to the reform of the world’s financial system, starting with the basic question, what is a financial system for? It shows that the existing system has become far more complic...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The long-term effect of digital innovation on bank performance: an empirical study of SWIFT adoption in financial services

We examine the impact on bank performance of the adoption of SWIFT, a network-based technological infrastructure for worldwide interbank telecommunication. We construct a new longitudinal dataset of 6,848 banks in 29 cou...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Collective Agreements, Wages and Restructuring in Transition

Using a large matched employer-employee dataset, the authors investigate the relationship between collective agreements, wages and restructuring in transition in three former centrally planned economies (Czech Republic, ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Monetary Policy Under Alterative Asset Market Structures: the Case of a Small Open Economy

Can the structure of asset markets change the way monetary policy should be conducted? Following a linear-quadratic approach, the present paper addresses this question in a New Keynesian small open economy framework. Our...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Leader Behavior and the Natural Resource Curse

We discuss political economy mechanisms which can explain the resource curse, in which an increase in the size of resource rents causes a decrease in the economy’s total value added. We identify a number of channels thro...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy

This paper analyses the international dimension of fiscal policy using a small open economy framework in which the government finances its spending by levying distortionary taxation and issuing non-state-contingent debt....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A Swing-State Theory of Trade Protection in the Electoral College

This paper develops an infinite-horizon, political agency model with a continuum of political districts, in which incumbent politicians can improve their re-election probability by attracting swing voters in key states t...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Monetary Policy Committees and Interest Rate Smoothing

We extend the New Keynesian Monetary Policy literature relaxing the assumption that the decisions are taken by a single policymaker, considering instead that monetary policy decisions are taken collectively in a committe...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is Numérairology the Future of Monetary Economics? Unbundling numéraire and medium of exchange through a virtual currency and a shadow exchange rate

The paper discusses some fundamental problems in monetary economics associated with the determination and role of the numéraire. The issues are introduced by formalising a proposal, attributed to Eisler, to remove the ze...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Shifts in Economic Geography and their Causes

This paper analyses some of the forces that are changing the spatial distribution of activity in the world economy. It draws on the 'new economic geography' literature to argue the importance of increasing returns to sca...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets

Recessions and policy interventions in labour markets in developing countries are characterized not only by changes in the unemployment rate, but also by changes in the proportion of formal or protected jobs. This reallo...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Information and Communication Technologies in a Multi-Sector Endogenous Growth Model

This paper investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on growth in an economy, consisting of three sectors, ICT-producing, ICT-using and non-ICT-using. The benefits from ICT come from the...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Competing Technologies in the Database Management Systems Market

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the market for Database Management Systems (DBMS), which is commonly assumed to possess network effects and where there is still some viable competition in our study period, 2000 –...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Growth of Network Computing: Quality Adjusted Price Changes for Network Servers

In this paper we investigate the evolution of quality adjusted prices for servers motivated by two facts. First, the productivity acceleration in the US economy since the mid 1990s is closely linked to spread of informat...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is There a Market for Work Group Servers? Evaluating Market Level Demand Elasticities Using Micro and Macro Models

This paper contains an empirical analysis demand for “work-group” (or low-end) servers. Servers are at the centre of many US and EU anti-trust debates, including the Hewlett-Packard/Compaq merger and investigations into ...Read more...

Chapter

Mobility and joblessness

in Seeking A Premier Economy: The Economic Effects Of British Economic Reforms, 1980-2000

The perceived impact of location on economic opportunity has been a constant refrain in discussions of the economic performance of the United Kingdom for as long as anyone can remember and the source of much feeling th...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search program

This paper exploits area-based piloting and age-related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program-the New Deal for Young People in the U.K. A central focus is on substitution/displacement ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy

This paper characterizes welfare in a small open economy and derives the corresponding optimal monetary policy rule. It shows that the utility-based loss function for a small open economy is a quadratic expression in dom...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The 'Network Economy' and Models of the Employment Contract: Psychological, Economic and Legal

The emergence of the so-called ¿network economy¿ and the development of project-based work pose a fundamental challenge to established methods of regulating the employment relationship. There appears to be an unsatisfied...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Digital Goods and the New Economy

Digital goods are bitstrings, sequences of 0s and 1s, which have economic value. They are distinguished from other goods by five characteristics: digital goods are nonrival, infinitely expansible, discrete, aspatial, and...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Technology Dissemination and Economic Growth: Some Lessons for the New Economy

This paper attempts to draw lessons for the New Economy from what economists know about technology dissemination and economic growth. It argues that what is most notable about the New Economy is that it is knowledge-driv...Read more...

Book

The Spatial Economy
Cities, Regions, and International Trade

The authors show how a common approach that emphasizes the three-way interaction among increasing returns, transportation costs, and the movement of productive factors can be applied to a wide range of issues in urba...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Product Standards, Trade Disputes and Protectionism

Trade disputes over national product standards are a growing source of tension in the international trading system. The usual pattern is that a country introduces a new product standard for all sales of a good in its loc...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Internet Cluster Emergence

Internet development holds the promise of transmitting economic value across physical space at zero marginal cost. In such a 'weightless economy', what factors matter for the location of economic activity and thus for ...Read more...

Book

Tackling Inequality

Richard Layard is one of Britain's foremost applied economists, whose work has had a profound impact on the policy debate in Britain and abroad.  This book contains his most influential articles on the subject of u...Read more...

Book

Tackling Unemployment

Richard Layard is one of Britain's foremost applied economists whose work has had a profound impact on the policy debate in Britain and abroad. This book contains his most influential articles on unemployment. It is publ...Read more...