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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Predicting the Geography of House Prices


Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.


Bernard Fingleton

February 2010     Paper Number SERCDP0045

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This SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper is published under the centre's Urban programme.