This paper examines the impact of protectionist policies on exports within global value chains (GVCs), using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. Leveraging UK customs data (2017-2020) and a shift-share identification strategy, we estimate an elasticity of exports with respect to intermediate imports of 0.4. A one standard-deviation increase in COVID restrictions in sourcing countries led to a 3.7% decline in intermediate exports. These findings reveal a paradox: policies aimed at self-sufficiency can harm export performance by disrupting supply chains. The study highlights the vulnerabilities of GVCs and the unintended consequences of protectionist trade policies, offering insights into the trade-offs between resilience and open trade networks.

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20 May 2025     Paper Number CEPDP2105

Download PDF - Shocked by COVID: Exporting along global value chains

This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Trade programme.