Monday 13 May 2024 12:00 - 13:30

SAL 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, Sir Arthur Lewis Building, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

About this event

Police in England and Wales are asked to predict the likelihood of serious recidivism in domestic abuse cases, without being given much support. We find variation in their skill levels, but at the same time, their predictions are generally poor. We ask how they formulate those predictions. We find substantial evidence of heuristic reasoning, including salience effects, representativeness bias, and implicitly, correlation neglect. These issues are greater for officers with lower skill levels. Analyzing decisions in prediction problems requires a means of adjusting the observed outcome for the censoring that may arise as a result of the prediction. We propose a method for dealing with such censoring which may be useful in other settings where workers charged with a prediction problem are not randomly assigned to cases.

Participants are expected to adhere to the CEP Events Code of Conduct.

Directions

This event will take place in SAL 1.04, 1st Floor Conference Room, Sir Arthur Lewis Building, LSE, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH.

This series is part of the CEP's Labour Markets programme.