Urban

CEP discussion paper

Economics of greenfield urban planning

Urban planning has shaped cities for millennia, demarcating property rights and mitigating coordination failures, but its rigidities often conflict with market-driven development, which reflects preferences. Although pla...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics: Forthcoming

Technical change, jobs, and wages in the global economy

This paper presents a compact and intuitive framework that consolidates, simplifies, and extends results on the links between technology, trade, and labour market outcomes. It makes three main contributions. First, it pr...Read more...

Blog

What works centre for local economic growth:

Recommendations for the evaluation of local growth policies

Rigorous evaluation improves our understanding of the effectiveness of local economic policies. Robust evaluation can be challenging but can answer many questions and lead to a more nuanced understanding. By learning fro...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Geography:

Don’t Shoot the Pianist: Creative firms, workers, and neighbourhood gentrification

We examine links between creative activity and gentrification at the neighbourhood level. These dynamics are both complex and important to understand. Artists may help ‘upgrade’ inexpensive neighbourhoods before being di...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Location choice when the number of jobs matters: Matching in spatial equilibrium

The idea that people want to go to where the jobs are is intuitive yet is absent from the standard quantitative spatial modelling approach in which location choices are guided by prices, without reference to quantities (...Read more...

Blog

What works centre for local economic growth:

Do cities and regions gain from public sector relocation?

In this guest blog, Dr. Max Nathan, Henry Overman, Capucine Riom, and Maria Sanchez-Vidal set out evidence on the impact of BBC (partial) relocation to Salford on wider employment in the area. This blog was originally pu...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Evaluating the local economic impacts of transport projects and programmes (with an application to UK Local Major schemes)

We consider how existing distance-based and accessibility-based evaluation methodologies can be adapted to measure the local economic impact of small additions to the transport network. We use these methodologies to eval...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Evaluating transport improvements in spatial equilibrium

The recent development of quantitative urban models provides a new set of tools for evaluating transport improvements. Conventional cost-benefit analyses are typically undertaken in partial equilibrium. In contrast, quan...Read more...

Blog

LSE Euro PP:

A new measure of quality of life explains why people like living in bigger cities

People like to live in certain places, even when higher wages are on offer elsewhere. Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Fabian Bald, Duncan Roth and Tobias Seidel show that once you take into account people's preferences, large cities o...Read more...

Blog

What works centre for local economic growth:

Thinking through multipliers: small numbers, big value

Last week we held the second in our current series of breakfast briefing webinars - Thinking through multipliers: Learning from BBC relocation. The event focused on what multipliers are and why local growth policymakers ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

in brief... Successful caps on fees disprove the idea that it’s unwise to meddle with free markets

Jan David Bakker and Nikhil Datta show how the success of a reform of letting agents’ fees was partly due to their hidden nature....Read more...

Blog

What works centre for local economic growth:

Effective devolution: why evidence and evaluation are key to success

Last week we held the first in our latest series of breakfast briefing webinars. This event focused on how local governments can prepare themselves to make the most of the devolution of local growth policy. Our remaining...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal: Forthcoming

Judge Dread: Court severity, repossession risk and demand in mortgage and housing markets

We study the impact of borrower protection on mortgage and housing demand using variation in the likelihood that houses are repossessed coming from heterogeneity in preferences of local judges. We develop a framework tha...Read more...

Blog

What works centre for economic growth:

English Devolution: new responsibilities, new challenges

Just before the Christmas holidays, the government published their eagerly awaited white paper on English Devolution. The resulting English Devolution Bill will usher in the biggest reorganisation of local government for...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

What impact have trade sanctions had on Russia? (Podcast)

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. How effective have the trade sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022 been? Politically, they were comprehensive and quick. But anecdotal reporting has suggested that Russian firms that w...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Do cities and regions gain from public sector relocation?

Moving public agencies out of London was a major plank of the levelling-up agenda. The effects on local economies seem smaller than hoped - and it's important to compare them with those of other tools of regional policy:...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Roads to development? Urbanization without growth in Zambia

This study explores the impacts of road improvements in a country characterized by "urbanization without growth". Our analysis reveals that, although road upgrades increase population growth, they do not significantly ad...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Measuring quality of life under spatial frictions

Using a quantitative spatial model as a data-generating process, we explore how spatial frictions affect the measurement of quality of life. We find that under a canonical parameterization, mobility frictions - generated...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Only the super rich need fear the farmers' inheritance tax

Protesters and high-profile individuals like James Dyson argued that ending the inheritance tax exemption for farmers will spell the end of the family farmer. Paul Cheshire argues that's not the case, and that the introd...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Invest 2035: the UK's modern industrial strategy

This document presents the submission made in response to the consultation on "Invest 2035: the UK's modern industrial strategy." The consultation was conducted by the Department for Business and Trade from 14 October 20...Read more...

Blog

The Conversation:

Successful caps on English letting agents' fees disprove the idea that it's unwise to meddle with free markets

Five years ago, the UK government enacted the first legislation regulating prices in the English rental market since the 1960s. The Tenant Fees Act 2019 didn't interfere with what landlords can charge tenants in rent, bu...Read more...

Journal article

Canadian Journal of Economics:

Regional Specialization: From the Geography of Industries to the Geography of Jobs

Our analysis begins with an empirical investigation of how employment concentration in industries and occupations across United States regions has changed over time, and how regional specialization has changed. Results ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Quantitative urban economics

This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models. These models are sufficiently rich to capture observed features of the data, such as many asymmetric locations and a rich geography of the transport network. Yet these...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Income, wealth and environmental inequality in the United States

This paper explores the relationships between air pollution, income, and wealth by combining administrative data from U.S. tax returns between 1979-2016, various measures of air pollution, and sociodemographic informatio...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Spatial economics

This paper reviews recent research in spatial economics. The field of spatial economics is concerned with the determinants and effects of the location of economic activity in geographic space. It analyses how geographica...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Budgeting for evaluation

In the budget last week, the government set out increased funding for public services and investment. The gamble is that increased public spending can successfully spur the growth needed to pay for it down the line. Impa...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

When market access gains do not spur urban growth

We revisit the natural experiments of division and unification of Germany. The negative shock to local market access following the division of Germany led to a fast and strong downward adjustment of the size of West Germ...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Built Environment Committee - The Grey Belt

Paul Cheshire gave oral evidence to the committee as part of its short inquiry into the government's policy to introduce a grey-belt concept into the planning system....Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Britain needs nerds

Science, technological, mathematical and engineering (STEM) skills have been crucial to economic growth in the UK in the past, but how important are they to the adoption of the latest digital technologies such as AI? Mir...Read more...

Blog

The local economic development podcast:

Spatial rebalancing with Henry Overman - Econ 101 for local growth

Can 'Economics 101' and radical incrementalism reshape local economic development? David and Mike explore this and more with Professor Henry Overman. Tune in for a deep dive into practical economic strategies and their i...Read more...

Blog

VOX EU:

The housing consumption channel of mortgage demand

Many housing markets have experienced a dramatic rise in house prices and mortgage debt over recent decades that has outpaced average income growth. Increased wealth and increased collateral values have been cited as pos...Read more...

Journal article

World Development:

Institutional transition: Social cohesion and demand for land titles in urban Tanzania

In much of urban Africa, demand for statutory property rights remains low even when governments coordinate land titling programmes and reduce the costs of registration. This paper studies the Residential Licence programm...Read more...

Blog

What works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

What might plans for a new industrial strategy mean for local growth?

On Monday, the Government published their green paper for a new national industrial strategy. This sets out the broad direction of their plan for industrial strategy and the thinking behind it, before the full strategy w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Multipliers from a major public sector relocation: The BBC moves to Salford

This paper considers the impact of a major public sector relocation: the British Broadcasting Corporation's partial move from London to Salford, Greater Manchester starting in 2011. We identify effects of the move using ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Why higher house prices lead to higher borrowing

In the past three decades, house prices and mortgage debt in the UK have risen much faster than income. In other words, people end up borrowing more money when house prices go up. This finding goes against many canonical...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics:

International Friends and Enemies

We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth deri...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Highway traffic in Britain: The effect of road capacity changes

This paper provides a theoretical framework to study the relationship between expanded road capacity, traffic volumes and increased economic activity. We build on Anas (2024) to show that increased volumes do not necessa...Read more...

Blog

Centre for cities:

City Talks: Why we are seeing a boom in urban economics research (Podcast)

We are constantly finding out more about where people live and work, how people move around, where businesses choose to locate, and where people spend their money - all of which adds more depth to our picture of cities. ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Valuing consumption services as technology transforms accessibility: Evidence from Beijing

Home delivery reduced the value of cities as locations to access variety in durable consumption goods. Food delivery services (FDS) are doing the same for restaurants. Home-streaming of sports or home-delivered restauran...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Online versus in-person services: Effects on patients and providers

Switching the delivery of one-to-one services from in-person to online offers potential cost savings and increased convenience, but what are the impacts on providers and consumers? This column studies the effects of onli...Read more...

Journal article

Research in Transportation Economics:

Housing prices, buses and trams in Medellín (Colombia)

This paper aims to establish the impact of two medium-capacity transportation systems (MCTS) on housing prices in Medellín (Colombia): Metroplús, a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, and Tranvía, a tramway system. Using rep...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics: Forthcoming

The spatial impacts of a massive rail disinvestment program: The Beeching Axe

This paper investigates the reversibility of the effects of transport infrastructure investments, based on a programme that removed much of the rail network in Britain during the mid-20th century. We find that a 10% loss...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Cities and the sea level

Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out. To investigate this construction, we analyze spatially disaggregated data covering the entire US Atlantic and Gulf ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics: Forthcoming

The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme

We evaluate the economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme on the food service sector. EOTHO was introduced during the COVID pandemic to stimulate demand by subsidizing the cost of eating out, with a...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Regional Science:

Within-city roads and urban growth

In this paper we study the role of within-city roads layout in fostering city growth. Within-city roads networks have not been studied extensively in economics although they are essential to facilitate human interactions...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Labour's planning reforms - how to make housing targets work

Labour promised serious reforms to the planning system while in opposition. What it has proposed now that it's in Government, including reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework, is very far from a fundamental re...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Labour's planning reforms - building on grey belts and missed opportunities

Perhaps the proposal that people are most aware of when it comes to Labour's planning reform plans, the one that hit the headlines, is the idea of potentially re-defining small areas of green belts as "grey belt land". T...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Housing-consumption channel of mortgage demand

We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify th...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Open Economics:

Spatial disparities across labour markets

We consider disparities across local labour markets in Great Britain. Disparities in wages and employment rates are large and persistent, although smaller than 20 years ago. These disparities largely reflect the concentr...Read more...

Blog

Jam Tomorrow (Podcast):

The Green Belt: Fields forever? (podcast)

Ros Taylor talks to LSE professor Paul Cheshire and journalist Jonn Elledge about the problems facing Labour as it tries to persuade Britons of the need for more housing and infrastructure. And Paul Cheshire sets out a p...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Avenging the tenants: Regulating the middle man's rents

We explore the role of intermediaries in the rental market. Using novel UK data on fees letting agencies charged to both tenants and landlords, combined with a matched property-agency listings dataset, we study the effec...Read more...

Blog

What works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Why the new government needs to be clearheaded on local growth

There are lots of local disparities in the UK. Health, education, levels of crime, employment rates and more diverge significantly across places. These disparities came into focus at the time of the 2019 election, where ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

How can the next government ensure better evidence use for achieving economic growth?

Whichever party wins this week's election will face big challenges, including achieving stronger local economic growth. Knowing how to do this - which mix of interventions will be most effective, and where to target them...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics: Forthcoming

Accounting for trade patterns

We develop a quantitative framework for decomposing trade patterns. We derive price indexes that determine comparative advantage and the aggregate cost of living. If firms and products are imperfect substitutes, we show ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Identifying agglomeration shadows: Long-run evidence from ancient ports

We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

How do the 2024 manifestos compare to the evidence on local growth?

Two weeks from election day, we have manifestos from the main parties. In this blog, we look at the Labour and Conservative manifestos and ask what existing evidence tells us about the likely effectiveness of some of the...Read more...

Chapter

Housing

in General Election 2024: Manifesto Analysis

The report contains chapters on growth; public spending; tax policy; living standards; housing; education/schools; further and higher education; energy and net zero; environment and farming; health; managed migration; sm...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Spatial disparities in productivity and income

This briefing looks at the causes and consequences of UK spatial disparities and what, if anything, policy can do to address them....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Spatial disparities in productivity are central to the future of levelling up

In the run-up to the election, our colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) are running a series of election analysis articles, where world-leading economists give their take on the state of different area...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Land use regulation, homeownership and wealth inequality

We examine the role that housing market regulatory restrictiveness plays in differentially affecting the net wealth of owners and renters over time, and its contribution to wealth inequality. In tightly regulated desirab...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Using evidence for making sense of policy debates in this election

The UK's general election campaign is now in full swing, with the policy announcements, promises, claims and counterclaims that come with it. Very soon we will see the publication of manifestos, and with them some idea o...Read more...

Journal article

Energy Economics:

Are friends electric? Valuing the social costs of power lines using house prices

Overhead electrical power lines and pylons have long raised concerns regarding the effects of electromagnetic fields on health, noise pollution and the visual impact on rural landscapes. These issues are once again salie...Read more...

Blog

What works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Planning ahead for local growth

With a summer election coming, local areas face an important challenge over the next few months. Whichever government emerges on July 4th, it seems clear they will be asking local places to work out new steps and strateg...Read more...

Blog

Centre for Cities (podcast):

City Talks: Sharing the benefits of a high-tech economy (podcast)

Centre for Cities chief executive Andrew Carter is joined by Professor Neil Lee, professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics and author of Innovation for the Masses: How to Share the Benefits of the...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

With great power comes great responsibility (for evaluation?)

Last week saw the final local government elections before the next general election. Amongst councillors changing places - or staying put - across the country, these elections ushered in two new metro mayors: one for Yor...Read more...

Journal article

AEA Papers and Proceedings:

The Linear Algebra of Economic Geography Models

We provide sufficient statistics for nominal and real wage exposure to productivity shocks in a constant elasticity economic geography model. These exposure measures summarize the first-order general equilibrium elastici...Read more...

Journal article

Town Planning Review:

Pushing water uphill: containment policies doomed to fail

London has had a green belt for seventy years making it the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for ‘zero land take’. Because of strong demand for housing space, rising prosperity underlies rising urban land demand so rigid physic...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Cool cities: The value of urban trees

Cities are warming faster than their rural surroundings. But the ecosystem support provided by urban forestry is often omitted from climate policies due to the difficulty in assigning to it a credible monetary sum. Lu Ha...Read more...

Chapter

Levelling up

in Labour Economics: Thinking through Labour's economic agenda

This essay collection, drawing together contributions from some of the UK's most notable economic analysts, all writing from a politically independent standpoint, as 'critical friends', is an attempt to identify and arti...Read more...

Chapter

Housing and planning

in Labour Economics: Thinking through Labour's economic agenda

This essay collection, drawing together contributions from some of the UK's most notable economic analysts, all writing from a politically independent standpoint, as 'critical friends', is an attempt to identify and arti...Read more...

External publication

Labour Economics: Thinking through Labour's economic agenda

With the Labour Party having vowed to achieve the fastest growth in the G7, the Social Market Foundation has brought together leading economic experts to provide independent analysis of the party's proposed approach - an...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Do plural ownership policies matter for local economies?

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino outlines how a new evidence briefing published by the What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth provides guidance for local policymakers on how to think through some of the local economic impacts ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Why delay? Understanding the construction lag, aka the build out rate

We explore the determinants of the speed of residential development after dwelling construction starts. Using a sample of over 140,000 residential developments in England from 1996 to 2015 and employing an instrumental v...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economic dynamics of city structure: Evidence from Hiroshima's recovery

We provide new theory and evidence on the resilience of internal city structure after a large shock, analyzing the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Exploiting newly digitized data, we document that the city structure recover...Read more...

Blog

LSE EUROPP:

What explains the gender ideology gap?

Felipe Carozzi and Andres Gago present evidence from Spain that can provide a partial explanation for a growing ideological gap between young men and women across the world....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Neighborhood effects: Evidence from wartime destruction in London

We use the German bombing of London during the Second World War as an exogenous source of variation to provide evidence on neighborhood effects. We construct a newly-digitized dataset at the level of individual buildings...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains

We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

New opportunities in transport investment for growth?

In February, the government announced the new Local Transport Fund, a package of £4.7bn of spending. Places will be able to spend funds on a range of transport investments, with the aim of improving connectivity within a...Read more...

Journal article

LSE Public Policy Review:

Spatial Labour Market Inequality and Social Protection in the UK

Spatial inequality in economic outcomes is increasingly seen as a problem for national economies. This paper considers spatial inequality in the UK labour market, its causes, and potential policy solutions. Relative to o...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Making sense of services

Will Brett-Harding outlines a two-step approach for thinking about what high growth potential services look like at the local level....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Ending stagnation

What can be done to address Britain’s relative economic decline over the past decade and a half? The final report of the Economy 2030 Inquiry presents an ambitious strategy for reversing decades of under-investment, by t...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Lessons for business support schemes from a large RCT in the UK

Productivity in the UK is stagnant and improving firm performance a key policy objective. Almost a decade ago, the UK government undertook an ambitious randomised control trial - the Growth Vouchers Programme - which pro...Read more...

CEP Insights

Insights: condensed

The Insights series is an introduction to the work of the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). Each Insight highlights the contribution of CEP researchers to both academic understanding and policymaking in one area of ...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy :

Local Retail Prices, Product Variety, and Neighborhood Change

We study how local grocery markets within a city are affected by changes in housing markets. Our empirical strategy exploits a shift in the spatial distribution of construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-ba...Read more...

Chapter

Housing and planning

in The state of the UK economy 2024

The report provides a constructive framework to address the need for a longer-term, joined up approach in policy areas, ranging from education to immigration, to public services and artificial intelligence. It shows that...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Neoclassical growth in an interdependent world

The neoclassical growth model remains a crucial reference point for economists thinking about cross-country income dynamics, but it imposes strong assumptions about goods and capital markets. Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu, ...Read more...

External publication

The state of the UK economy 2024

The state of the UK economy is always an important matter, but it is all the more so in what looks likely to be an election year. This UK in a Changing Europe report takes stock of the UK economy in order to assess how i...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

The experience of war shapes communities and future wars

Countries currently involved in active warfare - Ukraine, Russia, and Israel most prominently - have launched intense mobilisation campaigns to expand their armies. This column examines what compels ordinary men and wome...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Boosting productivity: why doesn't the UK invest enough?

The UK economy has long suffered from chronic levels of underinvestment. Many factors explain the failure to invest enough. One recurring theme is short-term thinking - by managers who don't invest in projects with long-...Read more...

Blog

LSE Impact:

Dashboards have the power to make complex research accessible to the public and policymakers

While researchers often point to the relevance of their research, economic models and econometric methods are typically inaccessible to a wider audience. Gabriel Ahlfeldt explains how interactive dashboards represent a u...Read more...

Journal article

Urban Studies:

Unbundling tenure security and demand for property rights: Evidence from urban Tanzania

Rapid urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa occurs with little land registration, and government-led regularisation schemes often find limited uptake of title deeds by residents. In theory, there could be private and public...Read more...

Journal article

Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research:

An International Perspective on the U.S. Zoning System

Zoning (or planning) has important functions. Markets play a fundamental role in efficiently allocating urban land (Bertaud, 2018), but there are endemic problems of market failure. There are also conflicts of interest i...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy

We take advantage of two spatial discontinuities in Britain's Help to Buy (HtB) scheme to explore the effectiveness and distributional implications of mortgage credit expansion policies. Employing a Difference-in-Discont...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Urban-biased structural change

Economic activity in high-income countries has shifted towards services and away from manufacturing. But research remains scant on the patterns of structural change within countries across urban and rural areas. Using mi...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Public Economics: Forthcoming

Powers that be? Political alignment, government formation, and government stability

We study how partisan alignment across levels of government affects coalition formation and government stability using a regression discontinuity design and a large dataset of Spanish municipal elections. We document a p...Read more...

Blog

LSE USAPP:

Corporate landlords are eroding the American dream of homeownership, especially in black neighborhoods

There has been a growing trend for institutional investors to purchase single-family homes and convert them to permanent rental properties. At the same time, homeownership rates for black households have declined on par ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The erosion of homeownership and minority wealth

Since the Great Recession, the traditional path to wealth creation through home ownership has stalled and worsened for many minority households. One potential and largely unexplored driver of this trend is the growing pr...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Fair employment policies: thinking through local impacts

Will Brett-Harding explains why we should assess the local economic impacts of fair employment policies and why it is important to think carefully about the economic logic and the evidence before pursuing them as a polic...Read more...

External publication

Ending stagnation

The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well befor...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

A micro-geographic house price index for England and Wales

We generate a mix-adjusted house price index for England and Wales from 2010 to 2020 at the level of lower-layer super output areas. To this end, we blend parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques and leverage ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Joining multinationals' supply chains can benefit domestic firms' performance

Developing countries compete to attract multinationals to induce development. Becoming suppliers to multinationals could improve domestic firms' technology and managerial practices, and the host country's economy could b...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Planning may be a political hot potato but radical reform cannot wait

Planning - largely because of the cruel growth in the unaffordability of housing - has risen up the political agenda. Reforms are urgently needed to allow more homes to be built, but change is notoriously difficult. Ahea...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The skyscraper revolution: Global economic development and land savings

Tall buildings are central to facilitating sustainable urbanization and growth in cities worldwide. We estimate average elasticities of city population and built area to aggregate city building heights of 0.12 and -0.17,...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Blog series: Understanding core economic concepts in economic growth

This blog series, aimed primarily at those working in local and central government, provides deep-dives into various components of economic growth, and some key concepts that affect the impact of economic growth policies...Read more...

Journal article

CESifo Forum:

“Big Push” Green Industrial Policy

Economists have been actively engaged with the question of climate policy for at least 30 years (Nordhaus 1991). The main product of this engagement has been vocal and wholehearted support of carbon pricing according to ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Regional productivity differences in the UK and France: From the micro to the macro

We propose a new data resource that attempts to overcome limitations of standard firm-level datasets for the UK (like the ARD/ABS) by building on administrative data covering the population of UK firms with at least one ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Slavery and Britain's industrial revolution

To what extent did the wealth derived from slavery contribute to Europe's economic growth? Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Hans-Joachim Voth find that slaveholding areas of Britain were less agricultural, closer to ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Britain can promote private investment and economic growth. Here's how

The UK investment ecosystem needs rewiring across the board to increase firms' desire to invest in productive and sustainable assets, and to enhance their ability to do so. Paul Brandily, Mimosa Distefano, Krishan Shah, ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding capitalisation

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino discusses key concepts to consider when thinking about capitalisation for local economic growth policies....Read more...

CentrePiece article

CEP Insights: Places and...

CEP research on cities and regions examines the drivers of spatial disparities - what leads certain parts of the country to be richer and others poorer? It explores the impact on economic development and policies that ma...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Scars of war

Deaths of soldiers in wartime naturally have a powerful impact on the communities from which they come. Research by Edward Pinchbeck, Felipe Carozzi and Luca Repetto reveals how losses in the first world war have reverbe...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding tradable and non-tradable sectors

Helene Donnat discusses what to consider when thinking about tradable and non-tradables in policymaking....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding crowding out, displacement, and leakage

Will Brett-Harding discusses what to consider regarding crowding out, displacement and leakage, when thinking about local economic growth policies....Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

New evidence on spatial wage inequality across North America and Western Europe

Spatial inequality has become a key policy concern across much of the advanced world, prompting a spate of government action on the issue in recent years. This column presents evidence showing that, contrary to the popul...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding additionality and deadweight

Will Brett-Harding discusses additionality and deadweight, the twin concepts which are essential to assessing policy effectiveness....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Time for a strategy to boost productivity in Manchester and beyond

The UK has a significant productivity problem and the poor performance of the nation's largest cities outside the capital contribute to this problem. Expert economists set out what change would be needed to set Greater M...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How can UK policy-makers make homes more affordable?

Housing in the UK has become seriously unaffordable; the problem is likely to get worse and younger people are being hit the hardest. Reforms that could be effective in solving the crisis are considered politically infea...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding multipliers

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino discusses why we need to consider multipliers when thinking about local economic growth policies....Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

What can house prices tell us about the environmental costs of overhead power lines?

The transition to green energy requires many new electrical power lines to be constructed. In the UK, this construction is a contentious planning and political issue. Steve Gibbons and Cheng Keat Tang show the local cost...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding efficiency and equity

Henry Overman explains why we need to consider efficiency and equity when thinking about local economic growth policies....Read more...

External publication

A tale of two cities (part 2)

Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation's largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 I...Read more...

External publication

A tale of two cities (part 1)

After the success of the Commonwealth Games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding agglomeration

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino explains why considering agglomeration is important for local economic growth policies and what to consider when thinking about agglomeration....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Public sector relocation: how to think about local impacts

Will Brett-Harding investigates the effects of public sector relocation on local areas that are destinations for the relocated or new public sector activity....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

A true housing crisis needs more than post-truth politicians

The UK's housing crisis is particularly acute by international standards. Instead of identifying real solutions, argues Paul Cheshire, policy-makers have offered only rhetorical devices, ineffective local mechanisms, and...Read more...

Chapter

Housing

in Policy Landscape 2023

What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and U...Read more...

Blog

Africa at LSE:

Public disclosure policies don't improve tax collection in Uganda

Public disclosure policies are designed to raise tax compliance where alternative enforcement capacity is limited. But they can also have negative consequences by showcasing the true extent of tax compliance, write Priya...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Understanding supply and demand

Helene Donnat explains what supply and demand is and why policymakers need to consider it to design effective policies....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

What are spatial disparities?

Henry Overman explains what spatial disparities are, why we need to consider them when thinking about local economic growth policies and whether we should try to reduce them....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How the scars of past wars continue to shape UK society

Edward Pinchbeck, Felipe Carozzi and Luca Repetto discuss new research exploring how memory of losses from war affects communities and shapes social values. Their findings suggest the impact can reverberate through gener...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Scars of war: the legacy of WW1 deaths on civic capital and combat motivation

What drives soldiers to risk their life in combat? We show that the legacy of war creates lasting conditions that encourage younger generations to take greater risks when fighting for their country. Using individual-leve...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Public disclosure and tax compliance: evidence from Uganda

Public disclosure policies have potential to raise tax compliance where alternative enforcement capacity is limited. We study the effects of reporting delinquents and recognizing compliers and provide evidence on the soc...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

The linear algebra of economic geography models

We provide sufficient statistics for nominal and real wage exposure to productivity shocks in a constant elasticity economic geography model. These exposure measures summarize the first-order general equilibrium elastici...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Rebuilding cities in Ukraine

Presuming that Ukraine successfully reclaims most or all of its lost territories from Russian occupation, there will be a political drive to bring refugees back to their hometowns and to rebuild destroyed cities. This co...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Public spaces: key points to keep in mind

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino discusses the local economic benefits and costs of possible schemes regarding the public realm and green spaces....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Thinking through social infrastructure wider outcomes

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino discusses the indirect effects of social infrastructure on communities, as part of the What works Centre for Local Economic Growth's 'thinking through series' which focuses on how local policymakers...Read more...

Blog

Centre for Cities City Talks:

City talks: what are the signs that the UK is levelling up? (Podcast)

Henry Overman speaks to Chief Executive Andrew Carter about how to measure the scale of the underperformance of cities in the UK and search for evidence that could point us towards the right solutions, in this podcast ep...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Slavery and Britain's industrial revolution

To what extent did the wealth derived from slavery contribute to Europe’s economic growth? Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Hans-Joachim Voth find that slaveholding areas of Britain were less agricultural, closer to ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Stepping up evaluation of active travel

Will Brett Harding discusses increasing active travel and what this means for locally delivered projects, and more generally about plans for determining the benefits of active travel investments....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How can we make homes more affordable?

Housing has become unaffordable, the problem is likely to get worse, and the young are hit the hardest. Christian Hilber argues that we face a conundrum: reforms that would be effective are considered politically infeasi...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Why the government's levelling-up plans need a reality check

The government has made tackling the UK's persistent spatial inequalities one of its top priorities. Yet progress has been slow or absent, because of insufficient investment, an underestimation of the scale of the challe...Read more...

Chapter

The What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth: some lessons from the first ten years

in The What Works Centres: lessons and insights from an evidence movement

What can policy do to increase local economic growth? This is a question that has challenged decision makers and academics for decades. It's also a fundamental question today, when the UK government has made economic gro...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

What does the evidence say on place-based intervention for net zero?

Will Brett-Harding discusses the existing evidence on place-based intervention for net zero, in light of the global climate crisis and the magnitude of the damage that will, or already has, come with it....Read more...

Blog

LSE:

What is levelling up? (video)

Neil Lee explains what levelling up is and how investing in more cities outside of London can help close the socio-economic gap between different areas in the UK....Read more...

Blog

LSE IQ:

How can we make homes more affordable? (Podcast)

In this LSE IQ episode on how we can make homes more affordable, Christian Hilber shares the reasons behind the UK's current housing affordability crisis, explaining the obstacles to building more houses as a way of over...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Community Wealth Building for local growth and wider outcomes

Community Wealth Building (CWB) is an approach to local economic development which focuses on retaining public spending and economic activity in a local area. Will Brett-Harding discusses evidence on local economic impac...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Globalization and pandemics

We provide theory and evidence on the relationship between globalization and pandemics. Business travel facilitates trade and travel leads to human interactions that transmit disease. Trade-motivated travel generates an ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Thinking through public spaces wider outcomes

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino assesses the local economic impacts of public spaces, exploring the benefits the evidence points towards, and asks what we need to do going forward....Read more...

Journal article

Econometrica:

Dynamic spatial general equilibrium

We incorporate forward-looking capital accumulation into a dynamic discrete choice model of migration. We characterize the steady-state equilibrium; generalize existing dynamic exact-hat algebra techniques to incorporate...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones and Innovation

In the Spring 2023 budget, the chancellor announced a newly revamped Investment Zones (IZs) programme as part of the UK's push for growth. This is a significantly scaled back version of the programme outlined by the prev...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Introducing our new logic model guide and checklist

Anamaria Tibocha-Nino outlines what makes a good logic model for a policy, programme or project, used to underpin funding bids and to develop successful local programmes....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Wider outcomes from public procurement

Will Brett-Harding and Anamaria Tibocha-Nino discuss the effects of local public procurement and whether it can deliver additional social, environmental, or economic benefits on top of core goods or services being bought...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Quantitative urban models: from theory to data

Economic activity is highly unevenly distributed within cities, as reflected in the concentration of economic functions in specific locations, such as finance in the Square Mile in London. The extent to which this concen...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management : Forthcoming

Dirty density: air quality and the density of American cities

We study the effect of urban density on the exposure of city dwellers to air pollution using data from the United States urban system. Exploiting geological features to instrument for density, we find an economically and...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Radical climate policies

The transition to net zero will require policies that promote switching to carbon-free technologies on a large scale and will often involve complementarities and peer effects in demand. Frederick van der Ploeg and Anthon...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Does active travel have local economic benefits?

Active travel involves making journeys by physically active means such as walking and cycling. While the link to emissions is obvious, we know less about the local economic impacts. Anamaria Tibocha-Nino and Will Brett-H...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution

To what extent the wealth derived from slavery contributed to Europe's economic growth has been a hotly debated question for more than two centuries. Most economists studying the question have looked at national aggregat...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Innovation and accelerators

In the new year speech, the Prime Minister argued "the most powerful plan for sustainable growth is to position the UK to fully benefit from the incredible scientific and technological change the world is seeing". New me...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU Talk:

Slavery and the industrial revolution (podcast)

Did slaveholding accelerate the industrial revolution in Britain? This controversial theory was first argued by Eric Williams almost 80 years ago but has lacked strong supporting evidence - until now. Stephan Heblich and...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU Talk:

Slavery and the industrial revolution (podcast)

Did slaveholding accelerate the industrial revolution in Britain? This controversial theory was first argued by Eric Williams almost 80 years ago but has lacked strong supporting evidence - until now. Stephan Heblich and...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economics of cities: from theory to data

Economic activity is highly unevenly distributed within cities, as reflected in the concentration of economic functions in specific locations, such as finance in the Square Mile in London. The extent to which this concen...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization : Forthcoming

Who promotes gender-sensitive policies?

We study whether female-headed local governments in Spain are more likely to engage in gender sensitive policies such as long-term care support, pre-schooling, or work and family-life balancing services. Using a fuzzy re...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics :

Micro-geographic property price and rent indices

We develop a programming algorithm that predicts a balanced-panel mix-adjusted house price index for arbitrary spatial units from repeated cross-sections of geocoded micro data. The algorithm combines parametric and non-...Read more...

Journal article

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science : Forthcoming

Modeling clusters from the ground up: a web data approach

This paper proposes a new methodological framework to identify economic clusters over space and time. We employ a unique open source dataset of geolocated and archived business webpages and interrogate them using Natural...Read more...

Blog

Vox Ukraine:

"What about the economy?": Vernon Henderson on the challenges of Ukraine's recovery (podcast)

Yulia Mincheva, the Analytics Society at VoxUkraine, and J. Vernon Henderson discuss how to rebuild destroyed cities and create conditions for their repopulation in this podcast, "What about the economy?"...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

(In)convenient stores? What do policies pushing stores to town centres actually do?

England's Town Centre First Policy, introduced in 1996, restricted the opening of new retail and other 'traditional town centre activities' to 'Town Centre' (TC) locations. The aim was to halt the decay of high streets. ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The geography of structural transformation: effects on inequality and mobility

The interplay between structural transformation in the aggregate and local economies is key to understanding spatial inequality and worker mobility. This paper develops a dynamic overlapping generations model of economic...Read more...

Chapter

Accelerating urban economic growth in Ukraine

in Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and policies

This book offers a comprehensive analysis of what Ukraine should become after the war and what tools policymakers can use to fulfill these goals. The leitmotif of this book is clear: reconstruction is not about rebuildin...Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy:

Does light touch cluster policy work? Evaluating the tech city programme

Cluster policies are popular with policymakers, but we know surprisingly little about their effectiveness. This paper evaluates the causal impact of a flagship UK technology cluster programme that uses ‘light touch’, mar...Read more...

Journal article

Annals of Regional Science: Forthcoming

Urban density and Covid-19: understanding the US experience

This paper revisits the debate around the link between population density and the severity of COVID-19 spread in the USA. We do so by conducting an empirical analysis based on graphical evidence, regression analysis and ...Read more...

Chapter

Housing policy and affordable housing

in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance

Lack of affordable housing is a growing and often primary policy concern in cities throughout the world. The main underlying cause for the "affordability crisis," which has been mounting for decades, is a combination of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution

Did overseas slave-holding by Britons accelerate the Industrial Revolution? We provide theory and evidence on the contribution of slave wealth to Britain's growth prior to 1835. We compare areas of Britain with high and ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

If the government cuts public spending, will volunteers step in?

The UK government is expected to respond to the country's economic woes with a wide-ranging programme of fiscal austerity. After the 2008/9 recession, the government accompanied its austerity programme with the idea of t...Read more...

Blog

World Bank Blogs:

Relationship between poverty and violence against civilians. Evidence from Somalia

Many countries around the world continue to experience episodes of violence and conflict. In these fragile settings, authorities are often unable to provide basic services and social safety nets to their citizens, result...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Policies for affordable housing: options and obstacles

The crisis of housing affordability has been mounting for decades, driven by growing demand for properties in desirable areas where supply is limited. Numerous policies have been enacted across countries, but many are in...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones: who benefits?

In this final blog of the week's series on Investment Zones, Henry Overman highlights issues local and national governments may face as they negotiate, such as substitution of jobs, leakage, and who benefits from Investm...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones, deadweight, and displacement

Following his previous blog on bidding for Investment Zones in the UK and that it should be a 'no-brainer', Henry Overman outlines in detail the existing theory and evidence on deadweight and displacement - two core issu...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment Zones: bid now, reflect later

With just three days left to draft initial bids for Investment Zones around the UK, Henry Overman addresses questions and concerns of some local areas still asking whether they should be bidding to host zones. Given the ...Read more...

Blog

CEPR & VideoVox Economics:

Why do some regions fail to recover from economic shocks? (video)

Recorded at CEPR's June Paris Symposium, Tony Venables presents his research on those regional disparities in the UK which originated in the 1970s through negative trade and technology shocks and whose long run consequen...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics :

Ask a local: improving the public pricing of land titles in urban Tanzania

Information on willingness-to-pay is key for public pricing and allocation of services but not easily collected. Studying land titles in Dar-es-Salaam, we ask whether local leaders know and will reveal plot owners' willi...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Investment zones and the problem of displacement

In September 2022, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng set out plans for 'Investment Zones' as the part of the government's renewed focus on growth. A crucial question around area based initiatives is the extent to which growth in...Read more...

Blog

The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy:

Trade policy, regional disparities, and inclusive growth

Places matter to people. For many people, the place where they grow up will become the place where they live and work. Many countries experience regional disparities in economic performance that are profound and persiste...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Lessons from a robust evaluation of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme

Eat Out to Help Out had a limited effect on footfall and recruitment. Supporting businesses in any context (Covid-19, energy crisis, etc.) needs consideration of effective mechanisms for encouraging programme take-up and...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Structural change within versus across firms: evidence from the US

One feature of the US economy over the last five decades has been the transition away from manufacturing towards services. This column takes a firm-level view of structural change from 1977-2019 to study these sectoral d...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Geography:

Creative clusters and creative multipliers: evidence from UK cities

Economic geographers have paid much attention to the cultural and creative industries, both for their propensity to cluster in urban settings, and their potential to drive urban economic development. However, evidence on...Read more...

External publication

The Conservative leadership contest: a guide to the policy landscape:

Housing and Planning

With the Conservative leadership contest underway, what is the country as a whole to make of the various pledges being made by the remaining candidates? What promises are credible? What will be the impact of the policies...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme

We evaluate the economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme on the food service sector. EOTHO subsidised the cost of eating out, with a 50% discount Mondays to Wednesdays in August 2020. We exploit th...Read more...

Blog

UCLA Housing Voice:

Skyscrapers with Gabriel Ahlfeldt (podcast)

Skyscrapers! We can't help but find them fascinating. Some cities are full of skyscrapers, and others have none. Developers built a 70-story tower on that parcel, but the proposed building just down the street is only 30...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Communication costs, science, and innovation

It seems obvious that lowering the cost of communication among innovators would facilitate scientific and technological progress. Yet, few studies examine this relationship. This column explores the introduction of the f...Read more...

External publication

Stagnation nation: navigating a route to a fairer and more prosperous Britain

The UK has great strengths, but is over a decade into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was posing challenges for low-to-middle income Britain's living standards even before...Read more...

Blog

VoxTalks Economics:

Levelling up Europe's left-behind places (podcast)

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: Inequality isn't just between individuals, but between regions too. Henry Overman explains to Tim Phillips why these disparities exist, why they are so persistent, and whether ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Bridging the productivity gap between different areas in the UK

An economic strategy that helps the UK respond to change and tackle stagnant living standards and weak productivity will need to address stubborn spatial disparities in economic performance across the UK. Addressing thes...Read more...

External publication

Bridging the gap

An economic strategy that helps the UK respond to change and tackle stagnant living standards and productivity will need to address the stubborn spatial disparities in economic performance across the UK. Addressing these...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What would it take to level up the UK?

The government's levelling up agenda seeks to reduce disparities across the UK. Policies to boost economic performance will need to attract workers and firms away from London and the South East and improve opportunities ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The economics of levelling up

There is an economic tension at the heart of the government’s plans for 'levelling up' the UK, according to CEP's research director Henry Overman. He argues that getting serious about helping people to access good job op...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Why is it so difficult to tackle the lack of affordable housing?

Boris Johnson has pledged that more people will be helped onto the property ladder and that the supply of housing will be improved. Christian Hilber and Olivier Schoni consider the history of housing policy and the chall...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

What we learnt about the Covid economy

In spring 2020, many countries imposed radical, urgent actions including lockdowns to protect their citizens' health - but there was also a need to protect people from the worst of the ensuing economic storm. Academics a...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Housing policy and affordable housing

Lack of affordable housing is a growing and often primary policy concern in cities around the world. The main underlying cause for the 'affordability crisis', which has been mounting for decades, is a combination of stro...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

Introduction to the special issue: "Urban economics and history"

Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

History and urban economics

This article reviews recent literature using insights from history to answer central questions in urban economics. This area of research has seen rapid growth in the past decade, thanks to new technologies that have made...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The economics of skyscrapers: a synthesis

We document that skyscraper growth since the end of the 19th century has been driven by a reduction in the cost of height, increasing urbanization, and rising incomes. These stylized facts guide us in developing a compet...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

Viewing urban spatial history from tall buildings

Micro-geographic data capturing the spatial distribution of economic activity within cities in history are difficult to access. This paper discusses how tall and durable buildings can be exploited as a source of "big dat...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Ask a local: improving the public pricing of land titles in urban Tanzania

Information on willingness-to-pay is key for public pricing and allocation of services but not easily collected. Studying land titles in Dar-es-Salaam, we ask whether local leaders know and will reveal plot owners' willi...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics :

Political fragmentation and government stability: evidence from local governments in Spain

This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probabili...Read more...

Blog

Wheeler Institute for Business and Development, London Business School:

Harnessing the potential of urbanisation in Africa: land and housing policy

Tanner Regan examines the potential for urban planning to encourage public and private investment in land and infrastructure....Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Economic Papers:

Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties’ market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from ...Read more...

Chapter

The Urban Economics of Superdiversity

in The Oxford Handbook of Superdiversity

This chapter examines the economic impacts of superdiversity in theory and practice, drawing on the experience of the United Kingdom in the early 2000s. Superdiversity has a largely urban footprint, reflecting the afford...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is online retail killing coffee shops? Estimating the winners and losers of online retail using customer transaction microdata

Is online retail a complement or substitute to local offline economies? This paper provides the first evidence that consumers use time saved from online retail to increase their trips for time-intensive services like cof...Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy :

No inventor is an island: social connectedness and the geography of knowledge flows in the US

Do informal social ties connecting inventors across distant places promote knowledge flows between them? To measure informal ties, we use a new and direct index of social connectedness of regions based on aggregate Faceb...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

House price expectations

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a...Read more...

External publication

Spatial disparities across labour markets

Spatial inequalities in the UK are profound and persistent. In 2019, average wages in London were 60% higher than those in Scarborough and Grimsby. Employment rates ranged from 66% in Skegness and Louth to 90% in Harroga...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League

How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21,590 city-level trade flows over 190 yea...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

'Levelling-up': the government's plans aren't enough to promote economic growth and tackle inequality

The government's levelling-up plan dodges the hard choices says Henry Overman. Countering the economic forces behind the UK's spatial disparities requires addressing multiple barriers and allowing differing approaches - ...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy:

How Do Households Value the Future? Evidence from Property Taxes

Despite the near ubiquity of intertemporal choice, there is little consensus on the rate at which individuals trade present and future costs and benefits. We contribute to this debate by estimating discount rates from ex...Read more...

Journal article

Urban Studies:

Incubators, accelerators and urban economic development

We combine theory and evidence on incubator and accelerator programmes and their effects on urban economic development. These structured co-working programmes have grown rapidly. However, a rich descriptive literature re...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

What is the optimal minimum wage?

With reports from the European Commission, the UK Treasury advocating significant increases in minimum wage levels, Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Duncan Roth, and Tobias Seidel explore whether such ambitious minimum wage increases i...Read more...

Journal article

Social Science History: Forthcoming

Business entry and exit: career changes of proprietors in England and Wales (1851-81) using record-linkage

The article links the digital records of individual proprietors in the manuscript censuses 1851-81 for the whole of England and Wales using the BBCE database to identify career changes of employers and own account propri...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Optimal minimum wages

We develop a quantitative spatial model with heterogeneous firms and a monopsonistic labour market to derive minimum wages that maximize employment or welfare. Quantifying the model for German micro regions, we find that...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Local retail prices, product varieties and neighborhood change

We study how local grocery prices within a city are affected by changes in housing markets. Our empirical strategy is based on an exogenous shift in the spatial distribution of construction activity induced by a large-sc...Read more...

Chapter

Proximity and collaborative knowledge creation

in Handbook of Proximity Relations

This chapter examines the collaborations between inventors in the United Kingdom (UK) by looking at what types of proximities - geographic, organisational, cognitive, social, and cultural-ethnic - between inventors are p...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Meeting housing demand

House of Lords: Built Environment Committee, 1st Report of Session 2021 to 22....Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

What future for history dependence in spatial economics?

History (sometimes) matters for the location and sizes of cities and neighborhood segregation patterns within cities. Together with evidence on rapid neighborhood change and self-fulfilling expectations, this implies tha...Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy:

Innovative events: product launches, innovation and firm performance

In this paper, we shed new light on the links between firm-level innovation and growth. We introduce data that capture a difficult-to-observe aspect of firms' innovative activity – new product/service launches – at scale...Read more...

Journal article

Cambridge Journal of Economics:

Profitability of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Marshall’s time: sector and spatial heterogeneity in the nineteenth century

New data on profit heterogeneity of small- and medium-sized firms for 1861–81 in England and Wales are used to reinterpret Marshall's contemporary insights. Profit level differences are chiefly explained by location, mai...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

JUE insight: How much does Covid-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other US cities

How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities, we estimate that total cases per capita decrease by 19% for every ten percentage point fall in mobility...Read more...

Journal article

Urban Studies: Forthcoming

The city and the virus

Cities around the world are the epicentres of the coronavirus pandemic: both in the first wave, as the disease spread from East Asia, and now, as many countries enter a third wave of infections. These spatial patterns ar...Read more...

Journal article

Science and Public Policy:

Systems of innovation, diversification, and the R&D trap: A case study of Kuwait

The relationship between research and development (R&D) investment and economic development is well established. Yet, at a global scale, the resource-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are consistent outliers...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Firm innovation in the post-pandemic world

In response to CEP research on firms adopting new technology in respons to Covid-19, Matias Belacin writes about the UK innovation strategy and the long-term plans to further boost innovation-led growth....Read more...

Journal article

Land Economics:

Valuing the environmental benefits of canals and canal restoration using house prices

This article values the environmental benefits of historic, navigable canals using property values. We improve on standard methods by controlling for microgeographic fixed effects and applying a difference-in-differences...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply

We provide empirical evidence that increases in housing rental income lead to a larger supply response than price increases of the same percentage value. We rationalize this differential in supply responsiveness with an ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Pandemic shock and economic divergence: political economy before and after the black death

We document how the Black Death activated politics and led to economic divergence within Europe. Before the pandemic, economic development was similar in Eastern and Western German cities despite greater political fragme...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Nobel prize in economics recognises evidence-based impact evaluation

following the announcement of the 2021 Nobel prize in economics being awarded to David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens for their contributions to an evidence-based research, Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim explains the continu...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Housing Economics:

Do long-distance moves discourage homeownership? Evidence from England

We hypothesize that as the distance of a residential move increases, the amount and quality of information collected on the destination housing market fall. This in turn increases the chances of making an ill-informed ho...Read more...

Journal article

Economica:

Suburbanization in the USA, 1970-2010

The second half of the 20th century saw large-scale suburbanization in the USA, with the median share of residents who work in the county where they live falling from 87% to 71% between 1970 and 2000. We introduce a new ...Read more...

Journal article

History of the Family:

Households and entrepreneurship in England and Wales, 1851-1911

This article uses the British Business Census of Entrepreneurs (BBCE) to examine the relationship between the household and entrepreneurship in England and Wales between 1851 and 1911. The BBCE allows three kinds of entr...Read more...

CEP Insights

Cities and regions

Economic prosperity is very unevenly distributed across space. What causes some places to be richer and some poorer? Why do these spatial disparities matter - and what can policy do to reduce them? Economists studying ur...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Consumer city: evidence from smartphone data

Traditional theories emphasise production decisions and the commuting costs of workers in shaping the spatial concentration of economic activity in cities. However, much of urban travel is related to consumption of non-t...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Trade and innovation

International trade is a key determinant of firm profitability and survival, so it is natural to expect it to influence both incentives to innovate and the rate of creative destruction. This column highlights four key me...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Micro-geographic property price and rent indices

We develop a programming algorithm that predicts a balanced-panel mix-adjusted house price index for arbitrary spatial units from repeated cross-sections of geocoded micro data. The algorithm combines parametric and non-...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania

Africa’s demand for urban housing is soaring, even as it faces a proliferation of slums. In this setting, can modest infrastructure investments in greenfield areas where people subsequently build their own houses facilit...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Reflections on struggling high streets

Henry Overman reflects on the findings from the What Works Centre's Recovery Workshop focusing on the British high street, looking at how an economic recovery from the pandemic focused on policy may best help our high st...Read more...

CentrePiece article

UK house prices in Covid-19 times

The pandemic lead to increased demand for bigger homes and gardens. With housing supply limited by strict UK planning regulations and the market propped up by a stamp duty waiver and the furlough scheme, prices of detach...Read more...

Blog

Grantham Institute blogs:

The answer to housing's stubborn carbon emissions problem: green offsets

Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber propose 'green offsets' to reduce property taxes in a way that is strictly scaled to energy efficiency, as a simple intervention to address the UK's urgent need to reduce its residentia...Read more...

External publication

Pancakes to pyramids: city form to promote sustainable growth (English)

Towns and cities are economic and social microcosms in which large numbers of people and firms interact. These interactions largely shape how a city looks, how it functions, and how it grows. But how exactly does this ma...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Suburbanization in the United States 1970-2010

The second half of the twentieth century saw large-scale suburbanization in the United States, with the median share of residents who work in the same county where they live falling from 87 to 71 percent between 1970 and...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Judge dread: court severity, repossession risk and demand in mortgage and housing markets

We study the impact of borrower protection on mortgage and housing demand. We focus on variation in the likelihood that a house is repossessed - conditional on the mortgage being in arrears and taken to court - coming fr...Read more...

Blog

LSE Research for the World:

Government urban regeneration initiative failed to improve Britain's most deprived areas

In 1994, John Major's Conservative government launched an initiative to improve a range of societal issues through regeneration. The Single Regeneration Budget ran for nearly a decade, but failed to create opportunities ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

East-side story: Historical pollution and persistent neighborhood sorting

Why are the east sides of formerly industrial cities more deprived? To answer this question, we use individual-level census data and create historical pollution patterns derived from the locations of 5,000 industrial chi...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Building the City: From Slums to a Modern Metropolis

We model the building of a city, estimate parameters of the model, and calculate welfare losses from institutional frictions encountered in changing land-use. We distinguish formal and slum construction technologies; in ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Local economic conditions and the nature of new housing supply

We explore the effects of local economic conditions on the type and size of newly constructed housing units in a city. Exploiting the 1984–2004 metro area samples of the American Housing Survey and US Census building per...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Why housing is built in flood-prone coastal areas

Despite the higher susceptibility to floods and a growing climate crisis, more than 10% of the world's population live in low-elevation coastal zones, and that percentage is growing. Yatang Lin, Thomas McDermott and Guy ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Cities and the sea level

Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out, especially when sea levels are rising. We study this construction using spatially disaggregated data on the US Atla...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

The persistent consequences of adverse shocks: how the 1970s shaped UK regional inequality

The economic shocks experienced by the UK economy in the 1970s brought major changes in the spatial distribution of employment rates in the UK. This paper traces the long-run implications of these changes, suggesting tha...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

Why central London has seen the biggest rises in house prices, despite Covid

As many predicted, the pandemic led to a demand for bigger homes and gardens. But with supply limited by Britain's strict planning regulations, and the market propped up by a stamp duty waiver and the furlough scheme, pr...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Scottish Historical Studies: Forthcoming

Entrepreneurship in Scotland, 1851-1911

We compare predictions from a conventional protocol-based approach to risk assessment with those based on a machine-learning approach. We first show that the conventional predictions are less accurate than, and have simi...Read more...

Journal article

Business History:

Changes in Victorian entrepreneurship in England and Wales 1851-1911: Methodology and business population estimates

The full population of England and Wales employers and own-account business proprietors is estimated using population censuses 1851–1911. The main contribution of the article is a method of mixed single imputation to ove...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

The pandemic and the housing market: a British story

When Covid-19 struck, the British housing market went into free-fall. Land Registry data show prices, transactions and construction all tumbled. But demand was boosted both by the general measures taken to support the ec...Read more...

Journal article

Real Estate Economics: Forthcoming

Offices scarce but housing scarcer: Estimating the premium for London office conversions

British planning is among the most restrictive in the world and has been restrictive for longer than elsewhere. Restrictive regulation substantially increases the costs of office space and, especially in London, increase...Read more...

Journal article

European Journal of Political Economy:

The generation gap in direct democracy: Age vs. cohort effects

We document a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics that is causally related to aging. To this end, we combine different sources of postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swis...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: Evidence from UK's single regeneration budget

Many governments aim to improve the labour market outcomes of people living in deprived areas through "place-making" initiatives. Economists are often sceptical about the effectiveness of such policies, but empirical evi...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Market tremors: Shale gas exploration, earthquakes, and their impact on house prices

Shale gas has grown to become a major new source of energy in countries around the globe. While its importance for energy supply is well recognized, there has also been public concern over potential risks from hydraulic ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The impact of public employment: Evidence from Bonn

This paper evaluates the impact of changes in public employment on private sector activity using the creation of the new West German government in Bonn in the wake of the Second World War as a source of exogenous variati...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Lockdown and the social life of big cities

The effects of Covid-19 on the social lives of city dwellers - being able to go to the pub, restaurants and theatre - may be more relevant for the future of cities than its impact on work. That's the implication of a tho...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Will coronavirus cause a big city exodus?

Big cities thrive because of the economic and social benefits of proximity – but proximity also helps to spread Covid-19. Does this mean an end to the urban revival of recent years – or do vaccines herald a return to nor...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Consumption access and agglomeration: evidence from smartphone data

We provide new theory and evidence on the role of consumption access in understanding the agglomeration of economic activity. We combine smartphone data that records user location every 5 minutes of the day with economic...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown: Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme

We evaluate some of the economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme on the food service sector. EOTHO subsidised the cost of eating out, with a 50% discount Mondays to Wednesdays in August 2020. We ex...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Why have house prices risen so much more than rents in superstar cities?

In most countries – particularly in supply constrained superstar cities – house prices have risen much more strongly than rents over the last two decades. We provide an explanation that does not rely on falling interest ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Colonial legacies: Shaping African cities

Institutions persisting from colonial rule affect the spatial structure and conditions under which 100s of millions of people live in Sub-saharan African cities. In a sample of 318 cities, Francophone cities have more co...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Lockdown shows us it is not work that attracts us to big cities - but the social life

Covid-19's effect on the social lives of city dwellers - being able to meet at the pub, restaurants or theatre - may be more relevant for the future of cities than its impact on work, write Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Fabian Bald,...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Quality of life in a dynamic spatial model

We develop a dynamic spatial model in which heterogeneous workers are imperfectly mobile and forward-looking and yet all structural fundamentals can be inverted without assuming that the economy is in a stationary spatia...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The grandkids aren't alright: the intergenerational effects of prenatal pollution exposure

Using newly linked survey and administrative data we provide early evidence that regulation- induced improvements in prenatal air quality have intergenerational effects on human capital accumulation in the United States....Read more...

Journal article

Business History:

The Population of Non-corporate Business Proprietors in England and Wales 1891–1911

This article uses population censuses to provide the first consistent counts of the population of business proprietors for 1891–1911. After appropriate adjustments for imperfect Census design the article confirms the per...Read more...

Blog

LSE History:

The Centre for Economic Performance marks 30 years of world-class research

LSE's Centre for Economic Performance, one of Europe's leading economic research centres, is marking its 30th anniversary in 2020/21. A new video, released to mark the Centre's 30th anniversary, highlights the breadth of...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

No inventor is an island: social connectedness and the geography of knowledge flows in the US

Do informal social ties connecting inventors across distant places promote knowledge flows between them? To measure informal ties, we use a new and direct index of social connectedness of regions based on aggregate Faceb...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... The lasting impact of epidemics

What can we learn about the potential effects of Covid-19 by looking at plagues of the past? According to Jeremiah Dittmar and Ralf Meisenzahl, history suggests that experiences of severe suffering can lead populations t...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Economics of skyscrapers

Many tall buildings appear to be out of scale given contemporary perceptions. But according to Gabriel Ahlfeldt and Jason Barr, the vast majority have a solid economic case for their construction....Read more...

Journal article

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science:

Will coronavirus cause a big city exodus?

What does the pandemic mean for the future of cities? We’ve seen predictions that COVID-19 is an ‘extinction-level event’ for expensive, commuter-driven megacities. We’ve also seen confidence: if the ‘death of distance’ ...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London

Using newly constructed spatially disaggregated data for London from 1801 to 1921, we show that the invention of the steam railway led to the first large-scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that a class ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The use of designer reputation to build tall in London

Height exemptions are made easier when a world-famous architect is involved, but the process carries hidden costs, writes Paul Cheshire....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Place-based policies and spatial disparities across European cities

Spatial disparities in income levels and worklessness in the European Union are profound, persistent and may be widening. We describe disparities across metropolitan regions and discuss theories and empirical evidence th...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Transport infrastructure expenditure: while there is no strong evidence of significant regional differences, the data available is problematic

The UK government uses a Value for Money framework to help allocate infrastructure expenditure. At the core of this is a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR), calculated using a set of established monetised impacts and costs. Yet...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Prime locations

We harness big data to detect prime locations - large clusters of knowledge-based tradable services - in 125 global cities and track changes in the within-city geography of prime service jobs over a century. Historically...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Policy:

School choice during a period of radical school reform. Evidence from academy conversion in England

We study how demand responds to the rebranding of existing state schools as autonomous 'academies' in the context of a radical and large-scale reform to the English education system. The academy programme encouraged scho...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Planning for the future: some solutions for our housing crisis at last?

The white paper, Planning for the future, published in early August 2020 represents the first serious attempt to reform our dysfunctional land use planning system since its inception. Although the Barker report’s diagnos...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Benefits, costs, and 'levelling up'

Henry Overman examines how transport infrastructure can play an important role in the economic performance of national and local economies. Reducing transport costs for businesses and commuters, improves access to market...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Will coronavirus cause a big city exodus?

Big cities thrive because of the economic and social benefits of proximity - but proximity also helps to spread Covid-19. Does this mean an end to the big city revival of recent years? Much will depend on how quickly we ...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Regional differences in UK transport BCRs: an empirical assessment

The UK government uses a Value for Money (VfM) framework to help allocate infrastructure expenditure. At the core of this framework is a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) that is calculated using a set of established monetised...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Land tenure and land-use in a developing city: A quantitative spatial model applied to Kampala, Uganda

Land rights and tenure systems are an important factor behind poor housing and inefficient land-use in developing country cities. In Kampala, Uganda, four systems of land tenure coexist, allowing a detailed study of the ...Read more...

Journal article

Economica:

'Trophy architects' and design as rent-seeking: quantifying deadweight losses in a tightly regulated office market

Britain tightly restricts the supply of office space, creating substantial economic rents, but its development restrictions are politically administered and therefore gameable, inducing rent-seeking activity. We find tha...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

Covid-19: cities get hit first, but do not necessarily get hit harder

Is there a link between population density and COVID-19 spread and severity in the United States? Felipe Carozzi, Sandro Provenzano and Sefi Roth (Centre for Economic Performance, LSE) found denser locations were more li...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Urban density and Covid-19

This paper estimates the link between population density and COVID-19 spread and severity in the contiguous United States. To overcome confounding factors, we use two Instrumental Variable (IV) strategies that exploit ge...Read more...

Journal article

Fiscal Studies:

Devolving skills: the case of the apprenticeship grant for employers

One rationale for devolution is that local decision makers may be well placed to adapt national policies to the local context. We test whether such adaptation helps meet programme objectives in the case of the Apprentice...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Globalisation and urban polarisation

External trade affects the internal spatial structure of an economy, promoting growth in some cities or regions and decline in others. Internal adjustment to these changes has often proved to be extremely slow and painfu...Read more...

Journal article

PNAS:

Ethnolinguistic diversity and urban agglomeration

This article shows that higher ethnolinguistic diversity is associated with a greater risk of social tensions and conflict, which, in turn, is a dispersion force lowering urbanization and the incentives to move to big ci...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economics of skyscrapers: a synthesis

This paper provides a synthesis of the state of knowledge on the economics of skyscrapers. First, we document how vertical urban growth has gained pace over the course of the 20th century. Second, we lay out a simple the...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Airports, access and local economic performance: Evidence from China

In this article, we study the effect of airports on local economic performance that arises from better access to domestic markets in the context of China’s recent airport network expansion. We measure access through the ...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

The effects of supporting local business: evidence from the UK

This paper assesses the effects of a significant place-based intervention that targeted local businesses in deprived areas in the UK. To gain identification, we use data at a fine spatial scale and a regression discontin...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

On the economic impacts of constraining second home investments

We investigate how political backlash against wealthy second home investors in high natural amenity places affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the 'Swiss Second Home Initiative', which banned ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Offices scarce but housing scarcer: estimating the premium for London office conversions

The British system of land use planning is one of the most restrictive in the world. It substantially increases the costs of office space (Cheshire & Hilber, 2008; Cheshire & Dericks, 2020) and, especially in London, inc...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

The early impact of Covid-19 on local commerce: changes in spend across neighborhoods and online

We document a number of striking features about the initial impact of the pandemic on local commerce across 16 US cities. There are two novel contributions from this analysis: exploration of neighborhood-level effects an...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Credit Constraints and the Composition of Housing Sales. Farewell to First-Time Buyers?

During the housing bust of 2008-2009, housing prices and transaction volumes fell across the United Kingdom. Although the drop in prices was similar across housing types, transaction volumes fell more for units at the lo...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Urbanization in the developing world: Too early or too slow?

We describe patterns of urbanization in the developing world and the extent to which they differ from the developed world. We consider the extent to which urbanization in the developing world can be explained by conventi...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Place-based policies and spatial disparities across European cities

Spatial disparities in income and worklessness across areas of the European Union are profound and persistent. Concerns about these disparities and the appropriate policy response are longstanding. Two trends have re-ene...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Delivering the Government’s infrastructure commitments through major projects

The Government has promised the largest investment in infrastructure for decades. The £640bn promised in the Budget speech and £5bn of Coronavirus "bounce-back" investment is earmarked for transport, schools, housing an...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Disrupted schooling: impacts on achievement from the Chilean school occupations

Disrupted schooling can heavily impact the amount of education pupils receive. Starting in early June of 2011 a huge social outburst of pupil protests, walk-outs, riots and school occupations called the Chilean Winter ca...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Damned by dams? Infrastructure and conflict

This study investigates the impact of dams on local conflict across the world with georeferenced location information on dams and conflict events for the years 1989 to 2016. The identification strategy exploits exogenous...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 school shutdowns: what will they do to our children's education?

Evidence from unexpected temporary school closures and reduced instruction time suggests school closures will reduce educational achievement, both in the short and long term. Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are ...Read more...

Journal article

Information Processing and Management:

Machine learning classification of entrepreneurs in British historical census data

This paper presents a binary classification of entrepreneurs in British historical data based on the recent availability of big data from the I-CeM dataset. The main task of the paper is to attribute an employment status...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Development Economics:

The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?

This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and su...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The role of demand in land re-development

Vacant, previously-developed land in cities can generate negative externalities on surrounding areas, and is often the target of policies to promote re-development. This paper provides estimates of the price sensitivity ...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

How the UK government should respond to the unequal local economic impacts of Covid-19

The economic crisis caused by COVID-19 will play out unequally across areas. Unfortunately, the unusual nature of this crisis makes its local impacts hard to predict. This complicates attempts to formulate appropriate ar...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

On the productivity advantage of cities

Ever since Marshall (1890) agglomeration externalities have been viewed as the key factor explaining the existence of cities and their size. However, while the various micro foundations of agglomeration externalities str...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme:

Covid-19: crashing the economy so what will it do for the housing market?

To speculate usefully about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Britain's housing markets one needs a clear analytical understanding of how our housing markets work and what forces cause them to change. Given the ext...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Covid-19 and housing: while prices may fall, homes will remain unaffordable

Discussing the potential effects of COVID-19 on housing, Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber write that real house prices and rents may initially fall. Yet housing will remain unaffordable for the young and those on lower...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics:

Flooded cities

Does economic activity move away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which displaced more than 650 million people worldwide in the last 35 years. We st...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: evidence from help to buy

Mortgage credit expansion policies - such as UK's Help to Buy (HtB) - aim to increase access to and affordability of owner-occupied housing and are widespread around the world. We take advantage of spatial discontinuitie...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Swings and silicon roundabouts: does cluster policy work?

Despite scepticism among researchers, policies to promote geographical clusters of firms in the same sector remain popular. Max Nathan evaluates a flagship programme set up a decade ago to accelerate the growth of Tech C...Read more...

CentrePiece article

People, places and politics: the challenge of 'levelling up' the UK

As has been much discussed since the election, economic performance varies widely among the towns, cities and regions of the UK. Henry Overman argues that policies to address these spatial disparities should be judged on...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Studies:

Creative differences? Measuring creative economy employment in the United States and the UK

This paper compares the creative economies of the US and the UK regions and nations using high-quality administrative microdata spanning the period 2011–13. The creative industries are highly urbanized in both countries....Read more...

Journal article

Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Measuring Aggregate Price Indices with Taste Shocks: Theory and Evidence for CES Preferences

We develop an approach to measuring the cost of living for CES preferences that treats demand shocks as taste shocks that are equivalent to price shocks. In the presence of relative taste shocks, the Sato-Vartia price in...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Does investment in national highways help or hurt hinterland city growth?

We investigate the effects of the recently constructed Chinese national highway system on local economic outcomes. On average, roads that improve access to local markets have small or negative effects on prefecture econo...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Regional Science:

Direct democracy and intergenerational conflicts in ageing societies

To evaluate the potential effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referendums. In a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics:

Incidence of surrogacy in the USA and Israel and implications on women’s health: a quantitative comparison

Purpose: Gestational surrogacy (GS) has been researched in multiple qualitative studies. In contrast, quantitative aspects of the practice are conspicuously understudied. The present article assesses and compares the inc...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Housing: 'no shortage' - is it nonsense?

Paul Cheshire questions arguments that Britain is not suffering from a housing shortage, pointing out errors in common understanding....Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The UK’s housing crisis: what should the next government do?

Since 2015, neither the government nor any opposition party has had any effective policy to tackle our housing crisis symbolised most starkly by Starter Homes. To the extent there has been action, it is largely ineffecti...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Housing

Housing affordability is a key concern of an ever-larger fraction of UK voters who are crammed into artificially limited space. It also underlies the sense of being shut out of prosperity and unable to escape declining l...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Eurosceptic votes are less likely when EU interventions visibly boost local job markets

Eurosceptic votes are less likely when EU interventions visibly boost local job markets Anti-systemic political movements have emerged in recent years in a large number of countries across the globe. These parties genera...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Spillover effects from new housing supply

I estimate spillovers from new housing supply on house prices, crime rates, and household income. To estimate these effects, I use exogenous variation in supply induced by a housing subsidy implemented in middle-income n...Read more...

Journal article

Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie, German Journal of Real Estate Research:

Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen

This article explores the role of supply constraints for house price growth and price dynamics. Simple demand-supply considerations suggest that house prices should respond more strongly to local housing demand shocks in...Read more...

Journal article

Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie, German Journal of Real Estate Research:

Gewinner und Verlierer von Stadtentwicklung: Ein Plädoyer für mehr Wohneigentum

The desire for more home ownership in Germany remains unbroken. However, not all households succeed in putting this desire into practice. The theoretical and empirical literature on the external benefits and costs of own...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The energy costs of historic preservation

We explore the impact of historic preservation policies on domestic energy consumption. Using panel data for England from 2006 to 2013 and employing a fixed effects strategy, we document that (i) rising national energy p...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management:

Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities

For a complete cost-benefit analysis of durable infrastructures, it is important to understand how the value of non-market goods such as transit time and environmental quality changes as incomes rise in the long-run. We ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Big city, bright future: why birthplace matters so much

How much does where you were born influence your future earnings? Analysing data from the British Household Panel Survey, Clément Bosquet and Henry Overman reveal that, on average, someone born in London in the 1970s ear...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Measuring the effect of innovation on productivity inside firms

The role of innovation in explaining economic performance has been a focus of economic research for decades, and many questions remain unanswered. One of the main challenges is how we measure innovation. Only by improvin...Read more...

Journal article

Social History:

Female entrepreneurship: business, marriage and motherhood in England and Wales, 1851–1911

This article offers a new perspective on what it meant to be a business proprietor in Victorian Britain. Based on individual census records, it provides an overview of the full population of female business proprietors i...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

The impact of the 2018 tariffs on prices and welfare

We examine conventional approaches to evaluating the economic impact of protectionist trade policies. We illustrate these conventional approaches by applying them to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration dur...Read more...

External publication

Homes on the right tracks

Technically, there is an easy solution to the UK crisis of housing supply: find more land for housing. This is not a physical problem but a political one. The land is there but policies and habits of thought prevent its ...Read more...

Journal article

Economics of Transportation:

Quantifying Wider Economic Impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: Existing evidence and future directions

The Authors This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomerati...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Dirty Density: Air Quality and the Density of American Cities

Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Does light touch cluster policy work? Evaluating the tech city programme

Despite academic scepticism, cluster policies remain popular with policymakers. This paper evaluates the causal impact of a flagship UK technology cluster programme. I build a simple framework and identify effects using ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Compact cities have many advantages – clean air isn’t one of them

Air pollution is bad for us. We all know that polluted air is detrimental to our health and recent research shows that it can also affect our performance in education, productivity at work and even our safety. This has i...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Is the big-box store killing Main Street?

The opening of big-box stores – i.e., large chain supermarket stores – has been a political concern in many countries over the last 20 years. Their critics claim they create enormous negative externalities in pre-existin...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Does e-commerce reduce traffic congestion? Evidence from Alibaba Single Day shopping event

Traditional retail involves traffic both from warehouses to stores and from consumers to stores. E-commerce cuts intermediate traffic by delivering goods directly from the warehouses to the consumers. Although plenty of ...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Why banning the construction of second homes in St. Ives and elsewhere has been a bad idea and what to do instead

Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Measuring urban economic density

At the heart of urban economics are agglomeration economies, which drive the existence and extent of cities. This paper estimates urban agglomeration effects, exploring simple and very nuanced measures of economic densit...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Retail shocks and city structure

This paper evaluates the consequences of opening out-of-town big-boxes on the commercial structure of cities. I use a discontinuity in a commercial regulation in Spain that restricts the entry of big-box stores in munici...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Regional Imbalances in the UK Economy inquiry

A new inquiry into regional imbalances in the UK economy has been launched by the Treasury Committee. The inquiry will examine the nature of regional imbalances in economic growth and explore how regional data can be use...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Ease versus noise: long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities

For a complete cost-benefit analysis of durable infrastructures, it is important to understand how the value of non-market goods such as transit time and environmental quality changes as incomes rise in the long-run. We ...Read more...

Journal article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications:

A tale of two tails: Do Power Law and Lognormal models fit firm-size distributions in the mid-Victorian era?

The paper explores the frequency and size distributions of firm-size in a novel dataset for the mid-Victorian era from a recent extraction of the England and Wales population censuses of 1851, 1861, 1871, and 1881. The p...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Task specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880 to 2000

We develop a new methodology for quantifying the tasks undertaken within occupations using over 3,000 verbs from more than 12,000 occupational descriptions in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOTs). Using micro dat...Read more...

Journal article

Agricultural History Review:

Shifts in Agrarian entrepreneurship in mid-Victorian England and Wales

This paper provides the first full-population analysis of changes in the entrepreneurial status of farmers during the mid-nineteenth century: between being employers or sole proprietors with no workforce. Using a unique ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Tales of the city: what do agglomeration cases tell us about agglomeration in general?

This paper considers the heterogeneous microfoundations of agglomeration economies. It studies the co-location of industries to look for evidence of labor pooling, input sharing, and knowledge spillovers. The novel contr...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Relocation of public sector workers: Evaluating a place-based policy ,

This paper investigates the local labor market impact of a UK relocation initiative – the 2004 Lyons Review. The review resulted in the dispersal of about 25,000 civil service jobs out of London and the South East toward...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

The economic effects of density: A synthesis

This paper synthesises the state of knowledge on the economic effects of density. We consider 347 estimates of density elasticities of a broad range of outcomes ranging from wages, innovation, rents, various amenities, t...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Financial innovation in mortgage products spurred the rapid increase in credit and house price growth during the last housing boom

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Valuing the environmental benefits of canals using house prices

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CEP discussion paper

Affordability, financial innovation and the start of the housing boom

At their peak in 2005, roughly 60 percent of all purchase mortgage loans originated in the United States contained at least one non-traditional feature. These features, which allowed borrowers easier access to credit thr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Valuing the environmental benefits of canals using house prices

The canal and waterway network in Britain provides a potentially valuable recreational and environmental amenity. In this paper, we estimate the value of this amenity based on how much households are willing to pay throu...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Why does birthplace matter so much?

We consider the link between birthplace and wages. Using a unique panel dataset, we estimate a raw elasticity of wages with respect to birthplace size of 4.2%, two thirds of the 6.8% raw elasticity with respect to city s...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

New road infrastructure: The effects on firms

This paper estimates the impact of new road infrastructure on employment and labour productivity using firm level longitudinal data for Britain. Exposure to transport improvements is measured through changes in accessibi...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Spatial Imaginaries and Tech Cities: Place-branding East London's digital economy

We explore place branding as an economic development strategy for technology clusters, using London’s ‘Tech City’ initiative as a case study. We site place branding in a larger family of policies that develop spatial ima...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

The preservation of historic districts - Is it worth it?

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CEP discussion paper

New media and competition: printing and Europe's transformation after Gutenberg

We study the role of book content in economic, religious, and institutional development after the introduction of printing, and the role of competition in determining the amount and content of local printing. We focus on...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

The bedroom tax

Housing subsidies for low income households are a central pillar of many welfare systems, but an expensive one. This paper investigates the consequences of an unusual policy aimed at reducing the cost of these subsidies ...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Do foreign migrants ‘grease the wheels’ of the labour market?

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Journal article

Journal of Housing Economics:

Institutional settings and urban sprawl: Evidence from Europe

This article explores the role of institutional settings in determining spatial variation in urban sprawl across Europe. We first synthesize the emerging literature that links land use policies and local fiscal incentive...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Housing Economics:

Housing in Europe: A different continent – A continent of differences

This article provides the introduction to the special issue on ‘Housing in Europe: a different continent – a continent of differences’ in the Journal of Housing Economics in 2018. Europe is a large continent with a long ...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Tall buildings and land values: Height and construction cost elasticities in Chicago, 1870-2010

Despite unprecedented vertical growth in large cities, the economics of skyscrapers remain understudied. We combine data on tall buildings with a panel of land prices covering 140 years to analyze the determinants of urb...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

The Economic Impacts of Constraining Second Home Investments

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Measuring Urban Economic Density

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Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Intergenerational Fairness and Provision Committee

Intergenerational fairness is an increasingly pressing concern for both policy makers and the public. It is exacerbated by an ageing population, the global financial crisis and successive government policies that have fa...Read more...

Journal article

Review of International Economics:

Globalization and urban polarization

External trade affects the internal spatial structure of an economy, promoting growth in some cities or regions and decline in others. Internal adjustment to these changes has often proved to be extremely slow and painfu...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Developing an effective local industrial strategy

Local governments in the UK have been writing economic development plans for decades, mostly with limited success. So can the latest drive to boost national productivity through local efforts show that this time is diffe...Read more...

Journal article

Urban Studies:

Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?

Hedonic prices of locational attributes in urban land markets are determined by a process of spatial arbitrage that is similar to that which underpins the law of one price. If hedonic prices deviate from their spatial eq...Read more...

Journal article

Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Religious competition and reallocation: The political economy of secularization in the protestant reformation

Using novel microdata, we document an important, unintended consequence ofthe Protestant Reformation: a reallocation ofresources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this process, we propose a conceptual fra...Read more...

Journal article

Economics Letters:

The regional effects of Germany's national minimum wage

We show that the minimum wage introduced in Germany in 2015 led to spatial wage convergence, in particular in the left tail of the distribution, without reducing relative employment in low-wage regions within the first t...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

The Making of Modern London

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

How much will households pay to avoid council tax?

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Incubators, accelerators and local economic development

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CEP discussion paper

Incubators, accelerators and regional economic development

A growing wave of co-location programmes promises to boost growth for young firms. Despite great public and policy interest we have little idea whether such programmes are effective. This paper categorises accelerators a...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

There is a housing crisis: there are not enough houses being built and they are becoming ever less affordable; and they are getting smaller…

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CEP discussion paper

The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London

Modern metropolitan areas involve large concentrations of economic activity and the transport of millions of people each day between their residence and workplace. We use the revolution in transport technology from the i...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

How do households value the future? Evidence from property taxes

Despite the near ubiquity of inter-temporal choice, there is little consensus on the rate at which individuals trade present and future costs and benefits. We contribute to this debate by estimating discount rates from e...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Measuring urban economic density

At the heart of urban economics are agglomeration economies, which drive the existence and extent of cities and are also central to structural transformation and the urbanization process. This paper evaluates the use of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

History dependence in the housing market

Using data on the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales over a twenty-year period, we document a robust pattern of history dependence in housing markets. Sale prices and selling propensities are affected ...Read more...

CEP report

Urban Capacity and Economic Output

This report was commissioned by the National Infrastructure Commission as part of the evidence base for the National Infrastructure Assessment. The views expressed and recommendations set out in this report are the autho...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

The Beeching Axe: the consequences of massive rail disinvestment

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CEP discussion paper

The spatial impacts of a massive rail disinvestment program: the Beeching axe

Transport investment is a popular policy instrument and many recent studies have investigated whether new infrastructure generates economic benefits and has spatial economic impacts. Our work approaches the question diff...Read more...

Journal article

Annual Review of Economics:

The Development of the African System of Cities

Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced high urban population growth over the past half century, dramatically reshaping the economic and spatial profile of the region. Simultaneously, this process has challenged the conventio...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates

Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing – the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership – over a...Read more...

Journal article

National Institute Economic Review:

Broken Market or Broken Policy? The Unintended Consequences of Restrictive Planning

This paper summarises the evidence from recent research relating to the British Planning system's impact on the supply of development. Planning serves important economic and social purposes but it is essential to disting...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... The bedroom tax

The ‘bedroom tax’ – a UK government policy introduced in 2013 that cut housing benefits for social tenants deemed to have a ‘spare’ bedroom – saved some public money, according to research by Steve Gibbons and colleagues...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Quantifying wider economic impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: existing evidence and future directions

This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomeration, explains...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Turning Brownfields Around: the Role of Demand in Land Re-Development

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CEP discussion paper

The economic impacts of constraining home investments

We investigate how political backlash against wealthy investors in high-amenity places affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the ‘Swiss Second Home Initiative’, which banned the construction of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The generation gap in direct democracy

We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four dec...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Did the Blitz enhance London’s economy?

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Inclusive Growth in cities: Good intentions, difficult policy

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Journal article

CESifo Economic Studies:

Take me to the Centre of your Town! Using micro-geographical data to identify Town Centres

© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute, Munich. All rights reserved. We often talk about 'Town Centres' (TCs), but defining their location and extent is surprisingly difficu...Read more...

Journal article

CESifo Economic Studies:

Weights to address non-parallel trends in panel difference-in-differences models

Causal inference using the difference-in-differences (DD) method relies on the untestable assumption of parallel counterfactual trends across units that are assigned to different treatments. To facilitate the application...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The role of demand in land re-development

Several governments throughout the world apply policies aimed to re-mediate and recover vacant or idle land for other uses. This paper provides estimates of the price sensitivity of redevelopment, a crucial parameter for...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

The ‘Bedroom Tax’: How did families react? Did the policy achieve its objectives?

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Journal article

Region:

Urbanisation in developing economies: Building cities that work

This paper reviews recent work on the economics of fast growing developing country cities, with a focus on Africa. It sets out some of the broad facts about African urbanisation and summarises two recent pieces of resear...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Does gentrification displace low-income renters in Britain? In short: Yes!

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Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Who gets the urban surplus?

High productivity in cities creates an economic surplus relative to other areas. How is this divided between workers and landowners? Simple models with homogenous labour suggest that it accrues largely-or entirely-in the...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Temperature, labor reallocation and industrial production: evidence from India

To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The billion pound drop: the blitz and agglomeration economies in London

This paper exploits locally exogenous variation in the location of bombs dropped during the Blitz to quantify the effect of density restrictions on agglomeration economies in London: an elite global city. Employing micro...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Does gentrification displace poor households? An 'identification-via-interaction' approach

My theoretical model motivates an ‘identification-via-interaction’ (IvI) approach that separates the causal impact of gentrification on poor exits from endogenous channels. In the empirical analysis, I create a measure o...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Fast track to growth? Railway access, population growth and local displacement in 19th century Switzerland

We study the effect of railway access on population growth in 19th century Switzerland. Our analysis is based on geo-referenced railway network information and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining direct railway...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The bedroom tax

Housing subsidies for low income households are a central pillar of many welfare systems, but an expensive one. This paper investigates the consequences of an unusual policy aimed at reducing the burden of these subsidie...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Housing: the happy self-delusion of ‘no shortage’

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Who benefits from neighbourhoods designated as conservation areas?

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Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Empty homes, longer commutes: the unintended consequences of more restrictive local planning

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Journal article

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health:

Social tenants' health: Evaluating the effectiveness of landlord interventions

Background: The National Health Service (NHS) scores well internationally on access to healthcare. But access has been measured on methods likely to undersample the more disadvantaged. Social landlords have access to mor...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

From periphery to core: Measuring agglomeration effects using high-speed rail

We analyze the economic impact of the German high-speed rail (HSR) connecting Cologne and Frankfurt, which provides plausibly exogenous variation in access to surrounding economic mass. We find a causal effect of about 8...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Empty homes, longer commutes

In areas of Britain where there are empty houses, planners typically allocate less land for development and make it more difficult to build or adapt houses. Research by Paul Cheshire, Christian Hilber and Hans Koster exp...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Cohesion Policy Incentives for Collaborative Industrial Research. The Evaluation of a Smart Specialisation Forerunner Programme

This paper evaluates a program of subsidies for Collaborative Industrial Research (co-) funded by the EU Cohesion Policy in Italy mobilizing over 1 billion euros. This program anticipated in the 2007-2013 funding cycle s...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

One or Many Cohesion Policies of the European Union? On the Diverging Impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States

Do regions in all Member States (MSs) of the European Union (EU) benefit from Cohesion Policy? Are regional impacts persistently diversified across countries? In order to answer these questions this paper explores how th...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Interaction of Public and Private Employment: Evidence from a German Government Move

We use the German government move from Bonn to Berlin in 1999 to test competing views about the impact of public employment on private sector activity in a local labor market. A relocated public sector job might create n...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

Do fixed geographic features such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse o...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Journal:

Distinctively Different: A New Approach to Valuing Architectural Amenities

We propose a method to estimate the capitalised value of the architectural design quality of an area. Our economic design premium is identified by spatially differentiating property prices and design quality within neigh...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Public Economics:

Empty homes, longer commutes: The unintended consequences of more restrictive local planning

We investigate the impact of land use regulation on housing vacancy rates. Using a 30-year panel dataset on land use regulation for 350 English Local Authorities (LAs) and addressing potential reverse causation and other...Read more...

Journal article

Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The global distribution of economic activity: nature, history, and the role of trade

We explore the role of natural characteristics in determining the worldwide spatial distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, observed across 240,000 grid cells. A parsimonious set of 24 physical ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Impact of Public Employment: Evidence from Bonn

This paper evaluates the impact of public employment on private sector activity using the relocation of the German federal government from Berlin to Bonn in the wake of the Second World War as a source of exogenous varia...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship

We study the link between mortgage debt and entrepreneurship using a model of occupational choice and housing tenure in a setting where loans are recourse—like in the UK and several US states. Our model shows that as lon...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Big plant closures and local employment

This paper estimates the impact of large plant closures on the local employment in the affected industry. Specifically, we examine the closure of 45 large manufacturing plants in Spain which relocated abroad between 2001...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Highways, Market Access and Spatial Sorting

We design a spatial model featuring workers embodied with heterogeneous skills. In equilibrium, locations with improved market access become relatively more attractive to the high-skilled, high-income earners. We then em...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Colonial Legacies: Shaping African Cities

Differential institutions imposed during colonial rule continue to affect the spatial structure and urban interactions in African cities. Based on a sample of 318 cities across 28 countries using satellite data on built ...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The benefits of forced experimentation: Striking evidence from the London underground network

We present evidence that a significant fraction of commuters on the London Underground do not travel on their optimal route. We show that a strike on the Underground, which forced many commuters to experiment with new ro...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Stamp duty, mobility and the UK housing crisis

The UK’s stamp duty land tax raises substantial revenues for the government, but it also contributes to the UK’s housing crisis by preventing households from moving to more suitable homes. That is the central conclusion ...Read more...

Journal article

National Institute Economic Review:

Local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are ...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

Distributive Politics Inside the City?

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Matching Firms and Workers in a Field Experiment in Ethiopia

Do matching frictions affect youth employment in developing countries? We organise job fairs in Addis Ababa, to match firms with a representative sample of young, educated job-seekers. We create very few jobs: one for ap...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Anonymity or Distance? Job Search and Labour Market Exclusion in a Growing African City

Do obstacles to job search contribute to labour market exclusion in developing countries? To answer this question, we contrast two very different interventions, designed to alleviate spatial and informational constraints...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Game of Zones: The Political Economy of Conservation Areas

We develop a simple theory of the conservation area designation process in which we postulate that the level of designation is chosen to comply with interests of local homeowners. Conservation areas provide benefits to l...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

Life in a slum: Understanding living conditions in Nairobi's slums across time and space

This paper overviews the role of slums in urban Africa, focusing on Nairobi. It reveals the characteristics of slums and how these have changed over time. Spatially disaggregated data show that slum areas are very dense ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Where top science gets done

Large-scale facilities like the Diamond Light Source synchrotron in Oxfordshire have the power to create concentrated geographical clusters of scientific research. According to new research scientists’ proximity to Diamo...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Decomposing the Impact of Immigration on House Prices

An inflow of immigrants into a region impacts house prices in three ways. For a fixed level of local population, housing demand rises due to the increase in foreign-born population. In addition, immigrants can influence ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long Run Evidence from Tanzania

What are the long run consequences of planning and providing basic infrastructure in neighborhoods, where people build their own homes? We study "Sites and Services" projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Do Speed Cameras Save Lives?

I evaluate whether speed enforcement cameras reduce the number and severity of traffic accidents by penalizing drivers for exceeding speed limits. Relying on micro data on accidents and speed cameras across Great Britain...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

My Precious! The Location and Diffusion of Scientific Research: Evidence from the Synchrotron Diamond Light Source

We analyse the impact of the establishment of the Diamond Light Source synchrotron, a large basic scientific research facility in the UK, on the geographic distribution of related research. To account for the potentially...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Transfer taxes and household mobility: Distortion on the housing or labor market?

We estimate the effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) – a transfer tax on the purchase price of property or land – on different types of household mobility using micro data. Exploiting a discontinuity in the tax sc...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Housing Allowance and Rents: Evidence from a Stepwise Subsidy Scheme

This paper studies the effect of housing demand subsidies on rents using discontinuities in the Finnish housing allowance system as a quasi-experimental setting. The stepwise dependence of housing allowance on the floor ...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

What’s happened to rents in London and the UK after the Brexit referendum? Evidence from a new rental index.

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Social Tenants' Health: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Landlord Interventions

Objectives: To test whether a social landlord can improve health outcomes for older tenants and reduce their NHS usage by simple interventions. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: Social housing in five London ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Local Economic Impacts of Regeneration Projects: Evidence from UK's Single Regeneration Budget

We study the local economic impacts of a major regeneration programme aimed at enhancing the quality of life of local people in deprived neighbourhoods in the UK. The analysis is based on a panel of firm and area level d...Read more...

Journal article

Annual Review of Economics:

Quantitative spatial economics

The observed uneven distribution of economic activity across space is influenced by variation in exogenous geographical characteristics and endogenous interactions between agents in goods and factor markets. Until the pa...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Technology Transfer:

Academic inventors: collaboration and proximity with industry

This paper addresses a number of fundamental research questions on university-industry (U-I) collaborations. Are U-I collaborations intrinsically different from other forms of collaboration, such as inter-firm or inter-u...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

The Local Economic Impacts of Brexit

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CEP Brexit analysis

The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Energy Costs of Historic Preservation

We explore the impact of historical preservation policies on domestic energy consumption. Using panel data for England from 2006 to 2013 and employing a fixed effects-strategy, we document that (i) rising national energy...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Road to recovery? Economic benefits of new infrastructure

New investment in roads can produce economic benefits, even in mature infrastructure networks like the UK’s, according to research by Henry Overman and colleagues. At the same time, they argue, improved evaluation of new...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Airports and economic performance in China

China’s airport construction policy has been successful in boosting manufacturing output, according to research by Stephen Gibbons and Wenjie Wu. Their study also finds that productivity impacts have been greater for pri...Read more...

Journal article

Real Estate Economics:

The Economic Implications of House Price Capitalization: A Synthesis

In this article, I synthesize an emerging literature that explores the conditions under which public and private investments and intergovernmental transfers are capitalized into local house prices and the broader economi...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Speed 2.0: Evaluating access to universal digital highways

This paper shows that having access to a fast Internet connection is an important determinant of capitalization effects in property markets. Our empirical strategy combines a boundary discontinuity design with controls f...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Roads, railroads, and decentralization of Chinese cities

We investigate how urban railroad and highway configurations have influenced urban form in Chinese cities since 1990. Each radial highway displaces 4% of central city population to surrounding regions, and ring roads dis...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Transfer Taxes and Household Mobility: Distortion on the Housing or Labor Market?

We estimate the effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) – a transfer tax on the purchase price of property or land – on different types of household mobility using micro data. Exploiting a discontinuity in the tax sc...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review

The ‘compact city’ is one of the most prominent concepts to have emerged in the global urban policy debate, though it is difficult to ascertain to what extent its theorised positive outcomes can be substantiated by evide...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The UK's Regional Divide: Can Policy Make a Difference

There are large variations in economic performance across the cities and regions of the UK. There is a broad North-South pattern to these disparities. But there is also substantial variation within those broad areas: som...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

East Side Story: Historical Pollution and Neighbourhood Sorting

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

New Road Infrastructure: The Effects on Firms

This paper estimates the impact of new road infrastructure on employment and labour productivity using plant level longitudinal data for Britain. Exposure to transport improvements is measured through changes in accessib...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Using Micro-Geography Data to Identify Town-Centre Space in Great Britain

We often talk about ‘Town Centres’, but defining their location and extent is surprisingly difficult. Their boundaries are hard to pin down and intrinsically fuzzy. Nevertheless, the British government introduced very sp...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Take What You Can: Property Rights, Contestability and Conflict

Weak property rights are strongly associated with underdevelopment, low state capacity and civil conflict. In economic models of conflict, outbreaks of violence require a prize that is both valuable and contestable. This...Read more...

Blog

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme Blog:

The impact of EU development funds in poorer UK regions and the prospect of Brexit

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Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Urban economics for the developing World: An introduction

This is an introduction to the special issue of the Journal of Urban Economics on “Urbanization in Developing Countries: Past and Present”. We argue that the rapid urbanization and the rise of cities in the developing wo...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Political favoritism in China's capital markets and its effect on city sizes

This paper examines political favoritism of cites in national capital markets and the effect of that favoritism on city sizes. The paper estimates the city-by-city variation in the prices of capital across cities in Chin...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Sorting and agglomeration economies in French economics departments

Are agglomeration and peer effects at stake in academic research? To tackle this question, we study how departments’ characteristics affect the quantity and quality of academics’ publications in economics in France, cont...Read more...

Journal article

Applied Economics Letters:

Industrial structure and preferences for a common currency – the case of the EURO referendum in Sweden

Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyse regionally differing voting results of a referendum held in Sweden in lieu of joining the European Monetary Union. We put...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Heterogeneous agglomeration

Many prior treatments of agglomeration explicitly or implicitly assume that all industries agglomerate for the same reasons. This paper uses U.K. establishment-level coagglomeration data to document substantial heterogen...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The roles of nature and history in world development

Vernon Henderson and colleagues explore fundamental determinants of the location of economic activity....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Distributive Politics Inside the City? The Political Economy of Spain's Plan E

We study the allocation of investment projects by municipal governments across groups of voters using data from a fiscal stimulus program carried out in Spain between 2009 and 2011. This program provided municipalities w...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Airports, Market Access and Local Economic Performance: Evidence from China

In this paper we study the effect of airports on local economic performance that arises from better access to domestic markets, using China’s recent rapid air network expansion. We estimate the effects of the implied cha...Read more...

Journal article

The World Bank Economic Review:

Volunteerism after the tsunami: The effects of democratization

Using three waves of survey data from fishing villages in Aceh, Indonesia for 2005-09, we examine the determinants of local volunteer labor after the tsunami. Volunteer labor is the village public sector labor force for ...Read more...

Journal article

Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Journal of Economic and Human Geography:

The Geography of Foreign Investments in the EU Neighbourhood

This paper aims at investigating the drivers of Multinational Enterprise (MNE) investment in countries linked to the ‘core’ of the European Union (EU 15) by different degrees of functional, economic and political integra...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis

This paper synthesises the state of knowledge on the economic effects of density. We consider 15 outcome categories and 202 estimates of density elasticities from 102 studies. More than 50% of these estimates have not be...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Trade and inequality: From theory to estimation

While neoclassical theory emphasizes the impact of trade on wage inequality between occupations and sectors, more recent theories of firm heterogeneity point to the impact of trade on wage dispersion within occupations a...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Studies:

Global investments and regional development trajectories: the missing links

Global investments and regional development trajectories: the missing links. Regional Studies. Regional economic development has been long conceptualized as a non-linear, interactive and socially embedded process: these ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Agglomeration externalities and urban growth controls

How can land use policy enhance the exploitation of external urban agglomeration economies? In a system of heterogeneous cities, we show that the second-best land use policy constrains city creation, while subsidizing (t...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Innovation, SMEs and the liability of distance: The demand and supply of bank funding in UK peripheral regions

This article considers geographical variations in the demand and supply of bank finance for innovative firms in the UK. It uses a detailed survey on the finances of almost 40,000 UK Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises fo...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Urban renewal after the Berlin wall: A place-based policy evaluation

We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of a spatially targeted renewal policy implemented in Berlin, Germany, in the aftermath of the city's division during the Cold War period. Our results sugg...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Development Economics:

Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?

This paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. The key dimensio...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Geography:

Innovation in Russia: The Territorial Dimension

The debate on Russia’s innovation performance has paid little attention to the role of geography. This article addresses this gap by integrating an evolutionary dimension in an augmented regional knowledge production fun...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Fear of fracking: the impact on UK house prices

Shale gas offers the prospect of a low-cost energy future – but does extracting it invoke anxieties about the possibility of environmental catastrophe among local residents? Research by Steve Gibbons and colleagues detec...Read more...

Journal article

Environment and Planning A:

Ethnic diversity and business performance: Which firms? Which cities?

A growing literature examines how ethnic diversity influences economic outcomes in cities and inside firms. However, firm–city interactions remain more or less unexplored. Ethnic diversity may help firm performance by in...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Stimulative Effect of an Unconditional Block Grant on the Decentralized Provision of Care

Understanding the impact of central government grants on decentralized health care provision is of crucial importance for the design of grant systems, yet empirical evidence on the prevalence of flypaper effects in this ...Read more...

Journal article

Review of International Economics:

The Geometry of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations in International Trade

Gravity equations in trade imply that trade flows are proportional to the size of a country and inversely proportional to distance. This paper develops the analogy of gravity in physics with gravity in trade and provides...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

East Side Story: Historical Pollution and Persistent Neighborhood Sorting

Why are the East sides of former industrial cities like London or New York poorer and more deprived? We argue that this observation is the most visible consequence of the historically unequal distribution of air pollutan...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain

Shale gas has grown to become a major new source of energy in countries around the globe. While its importance for energy supply is well recognized, there has also been public concern over potential risks – such as dama...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Powerhouse of cards?

It is not yet clear whether the UK government’s commitment to a ‘Northern Powerhouse’ will survive the change of personnel at the top. But as Neil Lee explains, the idea of seeking to reduce regional disparities via spat...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Investing in roads

Between 1990 and 2010, China constructed an extensive modern road network, including a national system of limited access highways. Vernon Henderson and colleagues investigate the impact on the growth of Chinese cities an...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Faster broadband: are there any educational benefits?

Governments around the world are committing substantial public funds to upgrading their broadband infrastructure, partly in the hope of promoting education. Research findings by Rosa Sanchis-Guarner and colleagues raise ...Read more...

Journal article

Cityscape:

Housing Policies in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States: Lessons Learned

We provide an analysis of the housing market and current housing policies in three developed countries: the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States. We focus on these three countries mainly because of the mark...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Austerity States, Institutional Dismantling and the Governance of Sub-National Economic Development: The Demise of the Regional Development Agencies in England

Contributing to interpretations of the governance geographies of austerity, the paper explains how, why and in what forms austerity states are constructed by actors in particular political-economic contexts and geographi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Traffic Externalities and Housing Prices: Evidence from the London Congestion Charge

This study exploits the introduction of the London Congestion Charge (CC) that greatly improves traffic conditions in Central London to provide new evidence on the capitalization of traffic externalities onto housing val...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Housing Market Impacts of Constraining Second Home Investments

We investigate how political backlash against wealthy second home investors in high-amenity places – tourist areas or superstar cities – affects local residents. We develop a general equilibrium model and exploit a quasi...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Quantifying the sources of firm heterogeneity

We develop and structurally estimate a model of heterogeneous multiproduct firms that can be used to decompose the firm-size distribution into the contributions of costs, "appeal" (quality or taste), markups, and product...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Impact of Structural Reforms on Regional Growth: Distance to the Frontier Matters

This paper aims to understand the impact of nation-wide structural policies on the productivity growth of OECD regions. In particular we explore how this impact varies with the productivity gap of regions with their coun...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Preservation of Historic Districts - Is it Worth it?

I investigate the welfare effect of conservation areas that preserve historic districts by regulating development. Such regulation may improve quality of life but does so by reducing housing productivity – the efficiency...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Geography of City Liveliness and Land Use Configurations: Evidence from Location-Based Big Data in Beijing

This paper explores the complexity in the connection between city liveliness and land use configurations for housing and consumption amenities. The sources of this complexity are captured by an integrated spatial and tem...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

Goods trade, factor mobility and welfare

We develop a quantitative spatial model that incorporates a rich geography of trade costs and labor mobility with heterogeneous worker preferences across locations. We provide comparative statics for the unique equilibri...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Highways, Market Access and Urban Growth in China

We investigate the effects of the construction of the national highway system in China on local economic outcomes. The analysis employs three main approaches. The first is based on a structural model of Ricardian trade t...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Location, Search Costs and Youth Unemployment: Experimental Evidence from Transport Subsidies in Addis Ababa

Do high search costs affect the labour market outcomes of job seekers living far away from jobs? I randomly assign transport subsidies to unemployed youth in urban Ethiopia. Treated respondents increase job search intens...Read more...

Journal article

Science:

Building functional cities

The literature views many African cities as dysfunctional with a hodgepodge of land uses and poor "connectivity." One driver of inefficient land uses is construction decisions for highly durable buildings made under weak...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History and the Role of Trade

We study the distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, across 250,000 grid cells of average area 560 square kilometres. We first document that nearly half of the variation can be explained by a pa...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Enabled to Work: The Impact of Government Housing on Slum Dwellers in South Africa

This paper looks at the link between housing conditions and household income and labour market participation in South Africa. I use four waves of panel data from 2002-2009 on households that were originally living in inf...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Quantitative Easing of an International Financial Centre: How Central London Came So Well Out of the Post-2007 Crisis

This paper documents and seeks to explain the remarkably positive employment trends of a central area of London in the years since the onset of the financial crisis. The volatility of this economy since the 1980s had sug...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Building the City: Urban Transition and Institutional Frictions

We model the building of a city, estimate parameters of the model, and calculate welfare losses from institutional frictions encountered in changing land-use. We distinguish formal and slum construction technologies; in ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Subways and Urban Growth: Evidence from Earth

We investigate the relationship between the extent of a city’s subway network, its population and its spatial configuration. To accomplish this investigation, for the 632 largest cities in the world, we construct panel d...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Take What You Can: Property Rights, Contestability and Conflict

Weak property rights are strongly associated with underdevelopment, low state capacity and civil conflict. In economic models of conflict, outbreaks of violence require two things: the prize must be both valuable and con...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England

We test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 Local Planning Authorities in England be...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Taking Care of the Budget? Practice-level Outcomes during Commissioning Reforms in England

I investigate whether vesting budgets with doctors impacts treatment decisions and patients outcomes by exploiting the transitional phase of major recent health care reforms in England that passed budgets to consortia of...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The (Displacement) Effects of Spatially Targeted Enterprise Initiatives: Evidence from UK LEGI

We investigate the impacts of a significant area-based intervention (LEGI) that aimed to increase employment and entrepreneurial activity in 30 disadvantaged areas across England. We examine the spatial pattern of effect...Read more...

Journal article

Research Policy:

Do inventors talk to strangers? on proximity and collaborative knowledge creation

This paper examines the characteristics of the collaborations between inventors in the United Kingdom (UK) by looking at what types of proximities - geographic, organisational, cognitive, social, and cultural-ethnic - be...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Powerhouse of Cards? Understanding the 'Northern Powerhouse'

The ‘Northern Powerhouse’ is the UK government’s latest attempt to reduce regional disparities. By bringing together the cluster of cities in the North of England, the aim is to create an agglomeration with the scale to ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Why Does Birthplace Matter So Much? Sorting, Learning and Geography

We consider the link between birthplace and wages. Using a unique panel dataset we estimate a raw elasticity of wage with respect to birthplace size of 4.6%, two thirds of the 6.8% raw elasticity with respect to city siz...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Trade and Frictional Unemployment in the Global Economy

We develop a multi-country, multi-sector trade model with labor market frictions and equilibrium unemployment. Trade opening leads to a reduction in unemployment if it raises real wages and reallocates labor towards sect...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Spatial Decay in Commuting Probabilities: Employment Potential vs. Commuting Gravity

We show that an employment potential capitalisation model, which establishes a spatial relationship between the price of land and the spatial distribution of employment through a transport matrix, produces estimates of t...Read more...

Journal article

Econometrica:

The economics of density: evidence from the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of internal city structure that features agglomeration and dispersion forces and an arbitrary number of heterogeneous city blocks. The model remains tractable and amenable to empi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Transfer Taxes and Household Mobility: Distortion on the Housing or Labor Market?

We estimate the effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) – a transfer tax on the purchase price of property or land – on different types of household mobility using micro data. Exploiting a discontinuity in the tax sc...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

ICT and Education: Evidence from Student Home Addresses

Governments are making it a priority to upgrade information and communication technologies (ICT) with the aim to increase available internet connection speeds. This paper presents a new empirical strategy to estimate the...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Offshoring and the Geography of Jobs in Great Britain

This paper investigates the impact of the offshoring of production activities on domestic jobs in Great Britain. The paper considers both the spatial heterogeneity across local labour markets and variations in the intens...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Role of Education for Amenity Based Sorting in British Cities

This paper investigates the relation between amenities and skills by looking at the sorting behavior of skilled individuals across neighbourhoods within British cities. Using a detailed micro dataset on housing transacti...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Credit Constraints and the Composition of Housing Sales. Farewell to First-Time Buyers?

During the housing bust of 2008–2009, home prices and transaction volumes fell across the entire United Kingdom. However, while the fall in prices was similar across housing types, transaction volumes fell more for homes...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

FDI Location Across British Regions and Inward Investment Policy

The theory and empirical evidence on FDI location emphasise agglomeration economies over classical location factors, such as grants. This paper uses panel data to analyse the effect of the main instrument of inward inves...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Business as Unusual. An Explanation of the Increase of Private Economic Activity in High-Conflict Areas in Afghanistan

In this paper we use a unique dataset that combines spatial detailed information on conflict events and on households' activity, to show a positive and significant correlation between violent conflict and entrepreneurshi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Regulating Housing Vacancies Away? The Paradoxical Effects of Mismatch

Policy makers agree that vacant houses are undesirable. Moreover the existence of empty houses is used as an argument for allocating less land for new construction. So higher vacancy rates tend to trigger tighter restric...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Vertical City: The Price of Land and the Height of Buildings in Chicago 1870-2010

We analyze the determinants of building heights in Chicago by combining a micro-geographic data set on tall buildings with a unique panel of land prices covering 140 years. Consistent with the predictions of classic urba...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Big Plant Closures and Agglomeration Economies

This paper analyses the effects of large manufacturing plant closures on local employment. Specifically, we estimate the net employment effects of the closure of 45 large manufacturing plants in Spain, which relocated ab...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

What Makes Cities More Productive? Agglomeration Economies and the Role of Urban Governance: Evidence from 5 OECD Countries

This paper estimates agglomeration benefits across five OECD countries, and represents the first empirical analysis that combines evidence on agglomeration benefits and the productivity impact of metropolitan governance ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Are People Moving Home Less? An Analysis of Address Changing in England and Wales, 1971-2011, Using the ONS Longitudinal Study

Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline i...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Is Internal Migration Slowing? An Analysis of Four Decades of NHSCR Records for England and Wales

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensitie...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Development and Cultural Change:

Organization of disaster aid delivery: Spending your donations

Extreme disasters catch the public eye, often resulting in massive infusions of aid that affect not just individual well-being but the fabric of societies. In developing countries, this typically involves foreign nongove...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Spillovers from Immigrant Diversity in Cities

Using comprehensive longitudinal matched employer-employee data for the U.S.,this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between productivity and immigration-spawned urban diversity. Existing empirical work has ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Planes, Trains and Automobiles: The Economic Impact of Transport Infrastructure

In the run up to the 2015 general election, the main political parties have very mixed views as to what should be done about transport in the UK. Big transport investment proposals - expansion of London's airports and hi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Moving People with Ideas - Innovation, Inter-regional Mobility and Firm Heterogeneity

This paper looks at the link between inter-regional mobility, innovation and firms’ behavioural heterogeneity in their reliance on localised external sources of knowledge. By linking patent data (capturing inventors’ int...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Exploring the Geography of China's Airport Networks: A Hybrid Complex-Network Approach

Air networks are normal examples of transportation systems among ubiquitous big data networks in the dynamic nature. This is particularly the case in developing countries with rapid airport network expansions. This paper...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The Economic Performance of UK Cities: Can Urban and Regional Policy Make a Difference to the North-South Divide

There are large variations in economic performance across UK cities and on some measures, they have widened since the global financial crisis. All main parties promise action to reduce them, but there is little differenc...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

From Periphery to Core: Measuring Agglomeration Effects Using High-Speed Rail

We analyze the economic impact of the German high-speed rail (HSR) connecting Cologne and Frankfurt, which provides plausibly exogenous variation in access to surrounding economic mass. We find a causal effect of about 8...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Distinctively Different: A New Approach to Valuing Architectural Amenities

We propose a method to estimate the capitalized value of the architectural design quality of a neighbourhood. Our economic design premium is identified by spatially differentiating property prices and design quality with...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Economic Value of Local Social Networks

The idea that local social capital yields economic benefits is fundamental to theories of agglomeration, and central to claims about the virtues of cities. However, this claim has not been evaluated using methods that pe...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Urban Development and Air Pollution: Evidence from a Global Panel of Cities

We exploit a unique panel of 75 metro areas (‘cities’) across the globe and employ a city-fixed effects model to identify the determinants of within-city changes in air pollution concentration between 2005 and 2011. Incr...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence from London Residential Leases

Most housing transactions in London involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this feature to estimate the time value of housing --- the relationship between the value of a property and the length of tim...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Walk This Way: Estimating Impacts of Walk in Centres at Hospital Emergency Departments in the English National Health Service

In publicly funded health care systems policy-makers face a dilemma: placing low acuity emergency care services outside hospitals may widen access to care and divert patients from making costly hospital visits, but may a...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Asymptotic Properties of Imputed Hedonic Price Indices

Hedonic price indices are currently considered to be the state-of-the-art approach to computing constant-quality price indices. In particular, hedonic price indices based on imputed prices have become popular both among ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Employment and Technological Change: On the Geography of Labour Market Adjustments

This paper investigates the impact of technological change on local labour market outcomes in Britain. Using a newly assembled panel database for the period 2000-2007 and a directly observed measure of technological chan...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Gone with the wind

Wind farms reduce house prices in postcodes where the turbines are visible, according to research by Steve Gibbons. Households are willing to pay £1,000 a year to avoid a large wind farm visible within 2km. His study not...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Trophy architects and the ‘dark matter' of London’s planning system

A quarter of London’s skyscrapers are designed by architects who have already won a lifetime achievement award and whose work thus has the imprimatur of ‘iconic design’; this compares with just 3% in Chicago. According t...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Local Economic Conditions and the Nature of New Housing Supply

We present a modified open monocentric city model that assumes that land is available for conversion into new housing throughout the city. The model predicts that positive local income shocks (i) increase the city’s shar...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Neighbourhood Turnover and Teenage Attainment

Theories about neighbours’ influence on children based on social capital, cohesion and disorganisation stress the importance of neighbourhood stability. However, amongst the vast number of studies on the effect of neighb...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Spatial Methods

This paper is concerned with methods for analysing spatial data. After initial discussion on the nature of spatial data, including the concept of randomness, we focus most of our attention on linear regression models tha...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Speed 2.0. Evaluating Access to Universal Digital Highways

This paper shows that having access to a fast Internet connection is an important determinant of capitalization effects in property markets. We combine microdata on property prices in England between 1995 and 2010 with l...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Transportation costs and the spatial organization of economic activity

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between the spatial distribution of economic activity and transportation costs. We develop a multi-region model of economic geography that w...Read more...

Book

Urban Economics and Urban Policy
Challenging Conventional Policy Wisdom Hardcover

In this bold, exciting and readable volume, Paul Cheshire, Max Nathan and Henry Overman illustrate the insights that recent economic research brings to our understanding of cities, and the lessons for urban policy-making...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

First-Come First-Served: Identifying the Demand Effect of Immigration Inflows on House Prices

An inflow of immigrants into a region affects house prices in three ways. In the short run, housing demand increases due to the increase in foreign-born population. In the long run, immigrants affect native location deci...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Turning houses into gold: the failure of British planning

Britain’s crisis of housing affordability is nothing to do with foreign speculators, according to Paul Cheshire. Rather, it is a result of decades of misguided planning policies that constrain the supply of land and turn...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Chicken or Egg? The PVAR Econometrics of Transportation

To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic litera...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Evaluating Spatial Policies

In most countries economic prosperity is very unevenly distributed across space: regions, cities and neighbourhoods seem to be very unequal, whether we look at average earnings, employment, education or almost any other ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Culturally Clustered or in the Cloud? Location of Internet Start-ups in Berlin

Knowledge based firms like IT companies do neither have a capital- nor a land intensive production. They predominantly rely on qualified labour and increasingly depend on the location of its (potential) employees. This i...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Impact of Better School Accessibility on Student outcomes

This paper identifies and quantifies the effects of better transport accessibility on student performance measured by mathematics test scores. A 27 km new subway line and the extension of an existing line in Santiago (Ch...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Relocation of Public Sector Workers: Evaluating a Place-based Policy

This paper investigates the local labor market impact of a UK relocation initiative, the 2014 Lyons Review. The review resulted in the dispersal of about 25,000 civil service jobs out of London and the South East towards...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

'Iconic Design' as Deadweight Loss: Rent Acquisition by Design in the Constrained London Office Market

Britain’s land use regulation (planning) system imposes very tight restrictions on the supply of office space so creating substantial rents. An unmeasured part of the costs associated with these restrictions likely comes...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Do Inventors Talk to Strangers? On Proximity and Collaborative Knowledge Creation

This paper investigates how physical, organisational, institutional, cognitive, social, and ethnic proximities between inventors shape their collaboration decisions. Using a new panel of UK inventors and a novel identifi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Heterogeneous Agglomeration

Many prior treatments of agglomeration either explicitly or implicitly suppose that all industries agglomerate for the same reasons, with traditional Marshallian (1890) factors affecting all industries similarly. An impo...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Urban Renewal after the Berlin Wall

Urban renewal areas are popular but empirically understudied spatial planning instruments designed to prevent urban decline and induce renewal. We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of 22 renew...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Gender and Competition: Evidence from Academic Promotions in France

Differences in promotion across genders are still prevalent in many occupations. Recent work based on experimental evidence indicates that women participate less in or exert lower effort during contests. We exploit the u...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Here Be Startups: Exploring a young digital cluster in Inner East London

The digital industries cluster known as 'Silicon Roundabout' has been quietly growing in East London since the 1990s. Now rebranded 'Tech City', it is now the focus of huge public and government attention. National and l...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Student Satisfaction, League Tables and University Applications

We investigate the impact of information about student satisfaction on university choice, using data from the UK’s National Student Survey (NSS) and on applications to undergraduate degree courses. We show that the NSS h...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Land Use Regulation and Productivity - Land Matters: Evidence from a UK Supermarket Chain

We use store-specific data for a UK supermarket chain to estimate the impact of planning on store output. Exploiting the variation in policies between England and other UK countries, we isolate the impact of Town Centre ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The economic future of British cities

Henry Overman surveys the evidence on potentially effective responses to the recession and longer-term structural change....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Down and Out in Italian Towns: Measuring the Impact of Economic Downturns on Crime

The paper investigates the effect of local economic conditions on crime. The study focuses on Italy’s local labor markets and analyzes the short-term response of crime to the severe slump of 2007-2009. It shows that the ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Urbanity

I define a composite amenity that provides aesthetic and consumption value to local residents: Urbanity. A novel data set of geo-tagged photos shared in internet communities serves as a proxy for urbanity. From the spati...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Urban Wage Growth Premium: Sorting or Learning?

This paper is concerned with the urban wage premium and addresses two central issues about which the field has not yet reached a consensus. First, the extent to which sorting of high ability individuals into urban areas ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Better Rail Access Improve Homeowners’ Happiness?: Evidence Based on Micro Surveys in Beijing

Development of urban transport infrastructures is a key policy focus---particularly in countries like China which have experienced fast urbanisation over the past decade. While existing studies provide marginal values fo...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Do Large Departments Make Academics More Productive? Agglomeration and Peer Effects in Research

We study the effect of a large set of department characteristics on individual publication records. We control for many individual time-varying characteristics, individual fixed-effects and reverse causality. Department ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

How Far Do England’s Second-Order Cities Emulate London as Human-Capital ‘Escalators’?

In the urban resurgence accompanying the growth of the knowledge economy, second-order cities appear to be losing out to the principal city, especially where the latter is much larger and benefits from substantially grea...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

My Precious! The Location and Diffusion of Scientific Research: Evidence from the Synchrotron Diamond Light Source

We analyze the impact of the establishment of a GBP 380 million basic scientific research facility in the UK on the geographical distribution of related research. We investigate whether the siting of the Diamond Light So...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Real Wages, Amenities and the Adjustment of Working Hours Across Regional Labour Markets

This article establishes a link between the traditional labour economics and the urban economics literature by analyzing differences in working hours across regional labour market areas in the UK. Using a real wage index...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Top Team Demographics, Innovation and Business Performance: Findings from English Firms and Cities 2008-9

High levels of net migration to the UK have contributed to growing cultural diversity, and researchers are turning their attention to the long-term effects of diversity on productivity. Yet little is known about these is...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Access All Areas? The Impact of Fees and Background on Student Demand for Postgraduate Higher Education in the UK

This paper analyses participation in postgraduate higher education in the UK at the micro-level makes several contributions to the literature. Firstly, it describes trends in postgraduate participation in the UK. Secondl...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London

Using the proprietary dataset of a real estate agency, I analyse tens of thousands of housing sale and rental transactions in Central London during the 2005-2011 period. I run hedonic regressions on both prices and rents...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Importance of Time Zone Assignment: Evidence from Residential Electricity Consumption

This paper presents the first nationwide empirical assessment of residential electricity use in response to the timing of daylight. Employing Geographical Information Systems (GIS) solar times of sunrise and sunset are c...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Rocketing Rents The magnitude and attenuation of agglomeration economies in the commercial property market

Rocketing rents in urban areas are likely explained by agglomeration economies. This paper measures the impact of these external economies on commercial property values using unique micro¿]data on commercial rents and em...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Historic Amenities, Income and Sorting of Households

We test the impact of historic amenities on house prices and sorting of households within cities. Conservation area boundaries enable us to employ a semiparametric regression-discontinuity approach to measure the impact ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Causal Effect of Credit Guarantees for SMEs: Evidence from Italy

We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program implemented in a large Italian region using unique microdata from a broad set of firms. Our results show that the policy was effective to the extent tha...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Size Distribution Across All 'Cities': A Unifying Approach

Older cities in the US tend to be larger than younger ones. The distribution of city sizes is, therefore, systematically related to the country's city age distribution. We introduce endogenous city creation into a dynami...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The UK's housing crises

The UK is facing not one but two housing crises. The first is a short-term fall in prices and construction whcih is both driven by and driving the recession. The second and more profound is the overall shortage of housin...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Specialization and Regional Economic Development

Debates about urban growth and change often center on specialization.However, arguments linking specialization to metropolitan economic development contain diverse, and sometimes conflicting, claims. Is it better to be h...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Driving Up Wages: The Effects of Road Construction in Great Britain

This paper estimates the effects of road construction on individual labour market outcomes using micro-data from Great Britain between 2002 and 2008. To capture these effects, I use a measure of accessibility to employme...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England

i) This discussion paper, originally published September 2012, is a completely revised version from April 2014. ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of city structure to separate agglomeration forces, dispersion forces and fundamentals as determinants of location choices. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical a...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

New Road Infrastructure: the Effects on Firms

This paper estimates the impact of road improvements on firm employment and productivity using plant level longitudinal data for Britain. Exposure to transport improvements is measured by changes in employment accessibil...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Public Investment Spur the Land Market?: Evidence from Transport Improvement in Beijing

Over 140 billion CNY (1GBP=10CNY) has been spent between 2000 and 2012 in Beijing on the construction of new rail transit lines. This massive public investment allows me to examine the consequences of transport improveme...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax on Household Mobility

We estimate the effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax on household mobility using micro data. Exploiting a discontinuity in the tax schedule as a quasi-experimental setting, we isolate the impact of the stamp duty from ot...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Trade Liberalisation Does Not Always Raise Wage Premia: Evidence from Ugandan Districts

The process of economic integration over the past two decades has been accompanied by an expanding income wedge between skilled and unskilled workers in many developing countries. This was also the case for Ugandan wage ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Spatial Variations in Amenity Values: New Evidence from Beijing, China

Using parks as an example, this paper explores the robustness and sources of spatial variation in the estimated amenity values using an extended geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique. This analysis, illustra...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Total Factor Productivity Growth in Local Economic Partnership Regions in Britain, 1997-2008

This paper decomposes aggregate TFP growth in Britain for 1997-2008 to show the contribution of different LEPs and the role played by manufacturing and services and UK- and foreign-owned plants within these LEPs. These c...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Effect of Public Sector Employment on Local Labour Markets

This paper considers the impact of public sector employment on local labour markets. Using English data at the Local Authority level for 2003 to 2007 we find that public sector employment has no identifiable effect on to...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Do Homeowners Benefit Urban Neighborhoods? Evidence from Housing Prices

Homeownership is heavily subsidized in many countries mainly through the tax code. The adverse effects of lenient tax treatment of owner-occupied housing on economic efficiency and growth are large and well documented in...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Self-Employment Measure Entrepreneurship? Evidence from Great Britain

Research on entrepreneurship often uses information on self-employment to proxy for business creation and innovative behaviour. However, little evidence has been collected on the link between these measures. In this pape...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Firm Size and Judicial Efficiency in Italy: Evidence from the Neighbour's Tribunal

We investigate the causal relationship between judicial efficiency and firm size across Italian municipalities, exploiting spatial discontinuities in tribunals' jurisdiction for identification. Results show that halving ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Ambition, Human Capital Acquisition and the Metropolitan Escalator

This paper examines the relation between ambition, as a form of dynamic human capital, and the escalator role of high order metropolitan regions, as originally identified by Fielding (1989). It argues that occupational p...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Accounting for Big City Growth in Low Paid Occupations: Immigration and/or Service Class Consumption

Growth of 'global cities' in the 1980s was supposed to have involved an occupational polarisation, including growth of low paid service jobs. Though held to be untrue for European cities, at the time, some such growth di...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Is Pennine England becoming more Polycentric or more Centripetal? An Analysis of Commuting Flows in a Transforming Industrial Region, 1981-2001

This paper examines census-derived commuting data for the world’s earliest major urbanindustrial region, now home to 10 million people. Owing its origins to water power from the Pennine rivers, this region now comprises ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Great Britain's Second-Order City Regions in Recessions, 1978-2010

While it is now accepted that the 2008-09 recession accentuated regional differences in Britain, it is more difficult to identify the role of major cities, especially over a longer time scale. Using previously establishe...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Homeownerhip and Entrepreneurship

We study the link between homeownership and entrepreneurship by exploiting the longitudinal dimension of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and constructing a detailed monthly-spell dataset that tracks individuals...Read more...

CentrePiece article

HS2: assessing the costs and benefits

Henry Overman considers the arguments for and against building a new high-speed rail line from London to Birmingham....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Skilled Migration Foster Innovative Performance? Evidence from British Local Areas

What is the effect of an increase in the stock of human capital on the innovative performance of a local economy? This paper tests the hypothesis of a causal link between an increase in the average stock of human capital...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Bright Side of Social Capital: How 'Bridging' Makes Italian Provinces More Innovative

Social capital has remained relatively underexplored in innovation literature. Existing studies have failed to reach a consensus on its impact on local innovative performance: some empirical analyses emphasize a positive...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model

This paper focuses on the estimation and predictive performance of several estimators for the dynamic and autoregressive spatial lag panel data model with spatially correlated disturbances. In the spirit of Arellano and ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Geographic Concentration and the Temporal Scope of Agglomeration Economics: An Index Decomposition

The paper decomposes a geographical concentration index to examine the temporal scope of a spillover, which is the period of time over which one firm’s activity directly affects the location of other firms’ activities. N...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Assessing the Government's Proposals to Reform the UK Planning System

This note discusses the UK government’s proposed reforms to the land use planning system. It considers the case for reform and the extent to which the reforms are likely to meet their objectives. It then makes some sugge...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

What We Know (and Don't Know) About the Links between Planning and Economic Performance

This note considers the impact of land use planning on economic performance. Specifically, we discuss some of the economic and social costs of the current English system, some of which have been underplayed in public deb...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration Externalities and Urban Growth Controls

Should constraints on urban expansion be relaxed because of external agglomeration economies? In a system of heterogeneous cities, we demonstrate that second-best land use policy consists of a tax on city creation and a ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Unequal Britain: how real are regional disparities?

Average earnings vary widely across the regions of Britain, a fact that has prompted many decades of policies aimed at reducing regional disparities. But as Henry Overman and Steve Gibbons demonstrate, such variation rev...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Ethnic Inventors, Diversity and Innovation in the UK: Evidence from Patents Microdata

Ethnic inventors play important roles in US innovation systems, especially in high-tech regions like Silicon Valley. Do ‘ethnicity-innovation’ channels exist elsewhere? This paper investigates, using a new panel of UK pa...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Additional Spending Help Urban Schools? An Evaluation Using Boundary Discontinuities

Improvement of educational attainment in schools in urban, disadvantaged areas is an important priority for policy – particularly in countries like England which have a long tail at the bottom of the educational distribu...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

On the Relative Importance of Agglomeration Economies in the Location of FDI Across British Regions

The paper examines the relative importance for industrial location of production linkages and knowledge spillovers, distinguishing between intermediate and non-intermediate goods that are backwards or forwards in nature....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

From Russia with Love: The Impact of Relocated Firms on Incumbent Survival

We identify the impact of local firm concentration on incumbent performance with a quasi natural experiment. When Germany was divided after World War II, many firms in the machine tool industry fled the Soviet occupied z...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

History and industry location: Evidence from German airports

A central prediction of a large class of theoretical models is that industry location is not uniquely determined by fundamentals. Despite the theoretical prominence of this idea, there is little systematic evidence in su...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Land use planning: the impact on retail productivity

The restrictions that planning policies impose on retail development have significantly reduced the productivity of supermarkets, according to Paul Cheshire and colleagues....Read more...

CentrePiece article

How did London get away with it?

Despite dire predictions, the UK capital has experienced a relatively mild recession, at least so far - Henry Overman asks what went right...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Cultural Diversity Help Innovation in Cities: Evidence from London Firms

London is one of the world’s major cities, and one of its most diverse. London’s cultural diversity is widely seen as a social asset, but there is little hard evidence on its importance for the city’s businesses. Theory ...Read more...

Chapter

Evolving city systems

in Urbanization and development

Leading scholars in urban economics examine the data and definitions associated with the field, and look in-depth at the economic and social consequences of urbanization. Special focus is given to urban violence, and pla...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

In Search of the 'Economic Dividend' of Devolution: Spatial Disparities, Spatial Economic Policy and Decentralisation in the UK

After a decade of devolution and amid uncertainties about its effects, it is timely to assess and reflect upon the evidence and enduring meaning of any ‘economic dividend’ of devolution in the UK. Taking a multi-discipli...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Wage Disparities in Britain: People or Place?

This paper investigates wage disparities across sub-national labour markets in Britain using a newly available microdata set. The findings show that wage disparity across areas is very persistent over time. While area ef...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

City-Region Governance, Policy Variation and Economic Performance

Advocates for devolution of responsibility for economic development have frequently made a link between the governance of city-regions and their economic performance. The evidence they adduce for this does not clearly be...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Predicting the Geography of House Prices

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the lon...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Moving into the Projects: Social Housing Neighbourhoods and School Performance in England

This study estimates the effect of living in a very deprived neighbourhood, as identified by a high density of social housing, on the educational attainment of fourteen years old (9th grade) students in England. Neighbou...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration Elasticities and Firm Heterogeneity

This paper estimates the relationship between agglomeration and multi factor productivity at the one digit industry level and by region using longitudinal firm level data for New Zealand. A key focus of the paper is on m...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Urban Containment, Housing Affordability and Price Stability - Irreconcilable Goals

The planning goals of urban containment and now densification conceive of houses in terms of physical units and of land ‘supply’ as the area allocated for housing by the planning system; estimates of ‘demand’ are driven ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

'Gis a Job': What Use Geographical Information Systems in Spatial Economics?

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are used for inputting, storing, managing, analysing and mapping spatial data. This article argues that each of these functions can help researchers interested in spatial economics....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Decentralization Matter for Regional Disparities? A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper looks at the relationship between fiscal and political decentralization and the evolution of regional inequalities in a panel of 26 countries – 19 developed and 7 developing – for the period between 1990 and 2...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Local Authorities and the Downturn: A Review of Issues, Experience and Options

This report considers the potential/appropriate role for local authorities (LAs) in relation to the downturn phase of the current recession. It focuses on the most valuable functions which they can fulfil in this context...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Assessing Agglomeration Economies in a Spatial Framework with Endogenous Regressors

This paper is concerned with the influence of agglomeration economies on economic outcomes across British regions. The concentration of economic activity in one place can foster economic performance due to the reduction ...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economic Dynamics:

The dynamics of city formation

This paper examines city formation in a country whose urban population is growing steadily over time, with new cities required to accommodate this growth. In contrast to most of the literature there is immobility of hous...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Spillover and Backward Linkage Effects of FDI: Empirical Evidence for the UK

Recent work (including that of the author) on the impact of FDI has been based on microlevel (i.e. firms, establishments or plants) data, since this allows much greater control when examining such issues as whether FDI p...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Long-Term Effects of Forced Migration

We study the long-term effects of human displacement using individual level panel data on forced migrants and comparable non-migrants. After World War II, Finland ceded a tenth of its territory to the Soviet Union and re...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Urbanisation Affect Rural Poverty? Evidence from Indian Districts

Although the high rate of urbanization and the high incidence of rural poverty are two distinct features of many developing countries, we still do not know the effects of the former on the latter. We address this issue b...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Survival of the Fittest in Cities: Agglomeration, Selection and Polarisation

Empirical studies consistently report that labour productivity and TFP rise with city size. The reason is that cities attract the most productive agents, select the best of them, and make the selected ones even more prod...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Education and Income Inequality in the Regions of the European Union

This paper provides an empirical study of the determinants of income inequality across regions of the EU. Using the European Community Household Panel dataset for 102 regions over the period 1995-2000, it analyses how mi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Urban Growth Drivers in a Europe of Sticky People and Implicit Boundaries

We investigate urban GDP pc growth across the EU12 using data for functionally defined cities - rather than administrative regions. We test hypotheses on the role of human capital, EU integration and fragmentation of urb...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Family Types and the Persistence of Regional Disparities in Europe

This paper examines the association between one of the most basic institutional forms, the family, and a series of demographic, educational, social, and economic indicators across regions in Europe. Using Emmanuel Todd’s...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Peers and Achievement in England's Secondary Schools

The belief that children thrive if educated amongst higher-achieving schoolmates guides many parents in their choice of school. We extend the literature on this issue by considering children making the transition from pr...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Causes of sprawl: a portrait from space

We study the extent to which US urban development is sprawling and what determines differences in sprawl across space. Using remote-sensing data to track the evolution of land use on a grid of 8.7 billion 30 x 30 metre c...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Testing for localization using micro-geographic data

To study the detailed location patterns of industries, and particularly the tendency for industries to cluster relative to overall manufacturing, we develop distance-based tests of localization. In contrast to previous s...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

Economic geography and international inequality

This paper estimates a structural model of economic geography using cross-country data on per capita income, bilateral trade, and the relative price of manufacturing goods. We provide evidence that the geography of acces...Read more...

Book

The Spatial Economy
Cities, Regions, and International Trade

The authors show how a common approach that emphasizes the three-way interaction among increasing returns, transportation costs, and the movement of productive factors can be applied to a wide range of issues in urba...Read more...

Journal article

World Bank Economic Review:

Trading Arrangements and Industrial Development

This article outlines a new approach for analyzing the role of trade in promoting industrial development. It offers an explanation as to why firms are reluctant to move to countries with lower labor costs and shows how t...Read more...