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CEP Papers: 2018

CEP Discussion Paper
The Making of the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from London Stephan Heblich, Stephen J. Redding and Daniel M. Sturm
September 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1573:
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JEL Classification: O18; R12; R40


Tags: agglomeration; urbanization; transportation

CEP Discussion Paper
Misallocation in the Market for Inputs: Enforcement and the Organization of Production Johannes Boehm and Ezra Oberfield
September 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1572:
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JEL Classification: E23; O11; F12


Tags: production networks; intermediate inputs; misallocation; productivity; contract enforcement; value chains

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CEP Discussion Paper
How do Households Value the Future? Evidence from Property Taxes Hans R. A. Koster and Edward W. Pinchbeck
September 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1571:
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JEL Classification: G10; R30


Tags: housing; property taxes; discount rate; capitalisation rate; undervaluation

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence From the Stock Market Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Ahmed Usman September 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1570:
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JEL Classification: F15; F23; G14


Tags: brexit; depreciation; event study; recession; stock market; tariffs

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CEP Industrial Strategy Paper
Do Apprenticeships Pay? Evidence for England Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura
September 2018
Paper No' IS03:
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JEL Classification: I20; I28; J24


Tags: apprenticeship; vocational education


This paper has been published as:
CVER Research Paper 015
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CVER Research Paper
Labour Market Outcomes of Older Versus Younger Apprentices: A Comparison of Earnings Differentials Steven McIntosh and Damon Morris September 2018
Paper No' CVERDP016:
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JEL Classification: J24; I28


Tags: apprenticeships; earnings differentials.

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CEP Discussion Paper
Measuring Urban Economic Density J. Vernon Henderson, Sebastian Kriticos and Dzhamilya Nigmatulina
September 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1569:
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Tags: cities; economic density; africa

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CEP Discussion Paper
History Dependence in the Housing Market Philippe Bracke and Silvana Tenreyro
August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1568:
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JEL Classification: E30; R21; R31


Tags: housing market; fluctuations; down-payment effects; reference dependence; anchoring; loss aversion

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CEP Discussion Paper
Foreign Expansion, Competition and Bank Risk Ester Faia, Sebastien Laffitte and Gianmarco Ottaviano
August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1567:
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JEL Classification: G21; G32; L13


Tags: banks' risk-taking; systemic risk; geographical expansion; gravity; diversification; competition; regulatory arbitrage

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CEP Discussion Paper
Why Does Education Reduce Crime? Brian Bell, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin
August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1566:
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JEL Classification: I2; K42


Tags: crime age profiles; school dropout; compulsory schooling laws

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CEP Discussion Paper
Who Teaches the Teachers? A RCT of Peer-to-Peer Observation and Feedback in 181 Schools Richard Murphy, Felix Weinhardt and Gill Wyness August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1565:
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JEL Classification: I21; I28; M53


Tags: education; teachers; rct; peer mentoring

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CEP Special Report
Urban Capacity and Economic Output Stephen Gibbons and Daniel J. Graham
August 2018
Paper No' CEPSP36:
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Tags: spatial economy; output; large cities

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Political Economy of Trade and Migration: Evidence from the U.S. Congress Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini, Max F. Steinhardt and Maurizio Zanardi August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1564:
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JEL Classification: F1; F22


Tags: trade reforms; immigration reforms; roll-call votes

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Spatial Impacts of a Massive Rail Disinvestment Program: The Beeching Axe Stephen Gibbons, Stephan Heblich and Ted Pinchbeck August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1563:
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JEL Classification: H54; R1; R4


Tags: rail; infrastructure; beeching

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CEP Discussion Paper
Teaching Assistants, Computers and Classroom Management: Evidence from a Randomised Control Trial Helen Johnson, Sandra McNally, Heather Rolfe, Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, Robert Savage, Janet Vousden and Clare Wood August 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1562:
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JEL Classification: I21


Tags: literacy; ict; teaching assistants

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CEP Discussion Paper
Quantifying Wider Economic Impacts of Agglomeration for Transport Appraisal: Existing Evidence and Future Directions Stephen Gibbons and Daniel J. Graham July 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1561:
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JEL Classification: R1; R4


Tags: agglomeration; transport; cost benefit analysis

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CEP Discussion Paper
Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century David S. Jacks and Dennis Novy
July 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1560:
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JEL Classification: F1; N7


Tags: economic geography; market potential; structural gravity; trade costs

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CEP Discussion Paper
Diffusion of Social Values Through the Lens of US Newspapers Alan Manning and Paolo Masella
July 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1559:
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JEL Classification: B55


Tags: social attitudes; gay marriage

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CEP Discussion Paper
Of Mice and Merchants: Trade and Growth in the Iron Age Jan David Bakker, Stephan Maurer, Jörn-Steffen Pischke and Ferdinand Rauch July 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1558:
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JEL Classification: F14; N7; O47


Tags: urbanization; locational fundamentals; trade

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CEP Industrial Strategy Paper
Apprenticeships in England: what does research tell us? Sandra McNally
July 2018
Paper No' CEPIS02:
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Tags: apprenticeship; labour market;

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CVER Briefing Note
Apprenticeships in England: what does research tell us? Sandra McNally
July 2018
Paper No' CVERBRF008:
Full Paper (pdf)

Tags: apprenticeship; labour market;

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Economic Impacts of Constraining Home Investments Christian A. L. Hilber and Olivier Schöni
July 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1556:
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JEL Classification: D63; G12; R11; R21; R31; R52


Tags: second homes; wealth inequality; land use regulation; housing policy; house prices; unemployment

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CEP Discussion Paper
Financial Markets and the Allocation of Capital: The Role of Productivity Filippo Di Mauro, Fadi Hassan and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano July 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1555:
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JEL Classification: G10; G21; G31; D92; F3; O16


Tags: bank credit; capital allocation; productivity; credit constraints

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CentrePiece Article
In brief...The bedroom tax Steve Gibbons, Maria Sanchez-Vidal and Olmo Silva
July 2018
Paper No' CEPCP531:
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CentrePiece 23 (2) Summer 2018


JEL Classification: H55; H2; R21; R28


Tags: social housing; social rents; bedroom tax; housing benefits


This article summarises ‘The Bedroom Tax’ by Steve Gibbons, Maria Sánchez-Vidal and Olmo Silva, CEP Discussion Paper No. 1537, April 2018
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CentrePiece Article
The price of Brexit Thomas Sampson
July 2018
Paper No' CEPCP528:
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CentrePiece 23 (2) Summer 2018


Tags: eu; brexit; uk economic growth; real wages; living standards

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CEP Discussion Paper
Geography, Ties and Knowledge Flows: Evidence from Citations in Mathematics Keith Head, Yao Amber Li and Asier Minondo
June 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1554:
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JEL Classification: F1; O3; R1


Tags: knowledge diffusion; distance; borders; networks; academic genealogy

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CEP Discussion Paper
Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US Nicholas Bloom, Kalina Manova, Stephen Teng Sun, John Van Reenen and Zhihong Yu
June 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1553:
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JEL Classification: F10; F14; F23; L20; O19; O32


Tags: management; exports; product quality; productivity

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Generation Gap in Direct Democracy Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Wolfgang Maennig and Steffen Q. Mueller
June 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1552:
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JEL Classification: D7; H3


Tags: age; cohort; direct democracy; generation gap; status quo; referendum; reform; utility

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CEP Discussion Paper
Brands in Motion: How Frictions Shape Multinational Production Keith Head and Thierry Mayer
June 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1551:
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Tags: trade agreements; brexit; tariffs; non-tariff barriers

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CEP Discussion Paper
Currency Unions, Trade and Heterogeneity Natalie Chen and Dennis Novy
June 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1550:
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JEL Classification: F14; F15; F33


Tags: currency unions; euro; gravity; heterogeneity; trade costs; trade elasticity; translog

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Role of Demand in Land Re-Development Felipe Carozzi
May 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1549:
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JEL Classification: R14; R31


Tags: re-development; supply elasticity; brownfields

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CEP Discussion Paper
Have R&D Spillovers Changed? Nick Bloom, Brian Lucking and John Van Reenen
May 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1548:
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JEL Classification: O31; O32; O33; F23


Tags: innovation; rd; patents; productivity and spillovers

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CEP Discussion Paper
Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation Laura Alfaro, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F. Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen May 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1547:
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JEL Classification: D2; L2


Tags: vertical integration; delegation; real options; supply assurance

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CEP Discussion Paper
Medical Marijuana Laws and Mental Health in the United States Jörg Kalbfuß, Reto Odermatt and Alois Stutzer
May 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1546:
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JEL Classification: H75; I12; I18; I31; K42


Tags: medical marijuana laws; cannabis regulation; mental health; chronic pain; prescription drug monitoring

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CEP Discussion Paper
Specialization Matters in the Firm Size-Wage Gap Maria Molina-Domene
May 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1545:
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JEL Classification: J31; L23


Tags: firm size-wage gap; specialization; division of labor

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CEP Discussion Paper
Weather, Labor Reallocation and Industrial Production: Evidence from India Jonathan Colmer
May 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1544:
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JEL Classification: O13; Q54; J62


Tags: labor reallocation; agricultural productivity; labor regulation; industrial production

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CEP Discussion Paper
Firm-to-Firm Connections in Colombian Imports Andrew B. Bernard, Esther Ann Bøler and Swati Dhingra
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1543:
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JEL Classification: F14


Tags: exporters; importers; gravity; export growth; margins of trade; heterogeneous firms

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Billion Pound Drop: The Blitz and Agglomeration Economies in London Gerard H. Dericks and Hans R. A. Koster
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1542:
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JEL Classification: R14; R33; R38


Tags: regulatory costs; office rents; agglomeration economies; london blitz bombings

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CEP Discussion Paper
Networks and Trade Andrew B. Bernard and Andreas Moxnes
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1541:
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JEL Classification: F10; F12; F14; L11; L21


Tags: international trade; production networks; offshoring; productivity

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CEP Discussion Paper
Does Gentrification Displace Poor Households? An 'Identification-Via-Interaction' Approach Sevrin Waights
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1540:
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JEL Classification: R21; R23; R31; C20


Tags: neighbourhood change; mobility; turnover; causality; cities; urban; housing

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CEP Discussion Paper
Poorly Measured Confounders Are More Useful On the Left than On the Right Zhuan Pei, Jörn-Steffen Pischke and Hannes Schwandt
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1539:
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JEL Classification: C31; C52


Tags: balancing; variable addition; robustness checks; specification testing; hausman test

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CEP Discussion Paper
Fast Track to Growth? Railway Access, Population Growth and Local Displacement in 19th Century Switzerland Konstantin Büchel and Stephan Kyburz April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1538:
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JEL Classification: N33; N73; O18


Tags: railway access; population growth; displacement effects

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Bedroom Tax Stephen Gibbons, Olmo Silva and Maria Sánchez-Vidal
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1537:
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JEL Classification: H55; H2; R21; R28


Tags: social housing; social rents; bedroom tax; housing benefits

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CEP Discussion Paper
Changing the Structure of Minimum Wages: Firm Adjustment and Wage Spillovers Giulia Giupponi and Stephen Machin
April 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1533:
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JEL Classification: J23; J31


Tags: minimum wage structure; employment; wage spillovers

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CEP Industrial Strategy Paper
Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta, Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally
March 2018
Paper No' CEPIS01:
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Tags: #cepindustrialstrategy; industrial strategy; capital tax credits

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CEP Discussion Paper
Pension Shocks and Wages Pawel Adrjan and Brian Bell
March 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1536:
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JEL Classification: J31; J32; G32


Tags: wages; pensions; frictions

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CEP Discussion Paper
Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi and Robert Witt March 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1535:
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JEL Classification: K42


Tags: metal crime; metal prices; commodity prices

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CEP Discussion Paper
Guns, Environment and Abortion: How Single-Minded Voters Shape Politicians Decisions Laurent Bouton, Paola Conconi, Francisco Pino and Maurizio Zanardi March 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1534:
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JEL Classification: D72; I18; K38; Q00


Tags: electoral incentives; environment; gun control; reproductive rights

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CEP Discussion Paper
Beyond Tariff Reductions: What Extra Boost From Trade Agreement Provisions? Swati Dhingra, Rebecca Freeman and Eleonora Mavroeidi March 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1532:
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JEL Classification: F10; F13; F14; F15


Tags: trade agreements; integration agreements; eias; trade policy; provisions; non-tariff barriers

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CentrePiece Article
Family firms: the problem of second-generation bosses Renata Lemos and Daniela Scur
March 2018
Paper No' CEPCP527:
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CentrePiece 23 (1) Spring 2018


Tags: ceo; firm productivity; management

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Cohesion Policy Incentives for Collaborative Industrial Research. The Evaluation of a Smart Specialisation Forerunner Programme Riccardo Crescenzi, Mara Giua and Guido de Blasio February 2018
Paper No' SERCDP0231:
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JEL Classification: O18; R11; R58


Tags: cohesion policy; smart specialisation; policy evaluation; innovation; european union

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
One or Many Cohesion Policies of the European Union? On the Diverging Impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States Riccardo Crescenzi and Mara Giua February 2018
Paper No' SERCDP0230:
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JEL Classification: O18; R11; R58


Tags: cohesion policy; european union; regions; growth; employment

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CEP Discussion Paper
The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner and Ben Zipperer February 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1531:
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JEL Classification: J31; J38; J88


Tags: minimum wage policy; bunching estimator; labor demand elasticity; wage distribution

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Interaction of Public and Private Employment: Evidence from a German Government Move Giulia Faggio, Teresa Schlüter and Philipp vom Berge February 2018
Paper No' SERCDP0229:
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JEL Classification: R58; R23; J61; O1


Tags: regional government policy; regional labor markets; job displacement; economic development

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CEP Discussion Paper
Teacher Turnover: Does it Matter for Pupil Achievement? Stephen Gibbons, Vincenzo Scrutinio and Shqiponja Telhaj
February 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1530:
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JEL Classification: H4; I2; J24


Tags: teachers; turnover; student attainment; schools

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CEP Discussion Paper
Higher Education Funding Reforms: A Comprehensive Analysis of Educational and Labour Market Outcomes in England Ghazala Azmat and Stefania Simion February 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1529:
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JEL Classification: I22; I23; I29; J30


Tags: higher education; tuition fees; means-tested support; career choices; career outcomes

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CEP Discussion Paper
All in the Family? CEO Choice and Firm Organization Renata Lemos and Daniela Scur
January 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1528:
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JEL Classification: M11; L2


Tags: ceo; family firms; organisation; emerging economies

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CEP Discussion Paper
Autonomous Schools and Strategic Pupil Exclusion Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi
January 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1527:
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JEL Classification: I20; I21; I28


Tags: academies; discipline; exclusion

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
The Impact of Public Employment: Evidence from Bonn Sascha O. Becker, Stephan Heblich and Daniel M. Sturm
January 2018
Paper No' SERCDP0228:
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JEL Classification: F15; J45; N44; R12


Tags: economic geography; public employment; place-based policies; german division

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CEP Discussion Paper
Oil Discoveries and Education Spending in the Postbellum South Stephan E. Maurer
January 2018
Paper No' CEPDP1526:
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JEL Classification: I2; N3; Q3


Tags: oil; education; race; rosenwald; local public finances; resource booms; teachers