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Research Papers
2020

CEP discussion paper
Dream Jobs Giordano Mion, Luca David Opromolla and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
July 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1705:
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JEL Classification: J30; M12; J62; F16


Tags: good jobs; international experience; managers; sorting; wage growth wage premium

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CEP discussion paper
The Economics of Skyscrapers: A Synthesis Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt and Jason Barr
July 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1704:
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JEL Classification: R3; N9


Tags: density; economics; history; skyscraper; urban

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CEP discussion paper
Gravity in International Finance: Evidence from Fees on Equity Transactions Luke Milsom, Vladimír Pažitka, Isabelle Roland and Dariusz Wójcik July 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1703:
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JEL Classification: F14; F23;;F65; G15; G24


Tags: gravity; international trade; international finance; equity securities underwriting; multinational business networks; financial geography

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CEP discussion paper
Why are Pollution Damages Lower in Developed Countries? Insights from High Income, High-Particulate Matter Hong Kong Jonathan Colmer, Dajun Lin, Siying Liu and Jay Shimshack July 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1702:
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JEL Classification: Q53; Q56; I15


Tags: particulate matter; marginal damages; infant health

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CEP occasional paper
Labour markets in the time of Coronovirus: Measuring excess Jonathan Wadsworth
July 2020
Paper No' CEPOP52:
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CEP occasional paper
Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: firm-level evidence on the role of government aid Morten Bennedsen, Berthe Larsen, Ian M. Schmutte and Daniela Scur July 2020
Paper No' CEPOP51:
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JEL Classification: H12; J38; J63; M54


Tags: covid-19; aid packages; firm labor responses

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CEP Covid-19 analysis
Strategy, Investment and Policy for a Strong and Sustainable Recovery: An Action Plan Nick Robins, James Rydge, Nicholas Stern, Sam Unsworth, Anna Valero and Dimitri Zenghelis July 2020
Paper No' CEPCOVID-19-005:
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Tags: sustainable recovery; investment; productivity; infrastructure; net zero greenhouse emissions; 'building back better'

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CEP discussion paper
Offices Scarce but Housing Scarcer: Estimating the Premium for London Office Conversions Paul Cheshire and Katerina Kaimakamis June 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1701:
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JEL Classification: R310; R330; R380


Tags: housing supply; restrictive regulation; office markets

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CEP discussion paper
Immigrant Inventors and Diversity in the Age of Mass Migration Francesco Campo, Mariapia Mendola, Andrea Morrison and Gianmarco Ottaviano June 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1700:
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JEL Classification: F22; J61; O31


Tags: international migration; cultural diversity; innovation

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CEP discussion paper
Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K. Ali Kabiri, Vlad Malone, Isabelle Roland and Mariana Spatareanu June 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1699:
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JEL Classification: G21; G34; O16; O30


Tags: default risk; propagation of banking crises; supply chains

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CEP occasional paper
The Early Impact of COVID-19 on Local Commerce: Changes in Spend Across Neighborhoods and Online Diana Farrell, Lindsay E. Relihan, Marvin W. Ward Jr. and Chris W. Wheat June 2020
Paper No' CEPOP50:
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CEP discussion paper
Family Background and the Responses to Higher SAT Scores Georg Graetz, Oskar Nordström Skans and Björn Öckert
June 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1698:
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JEL Classification: I21; I23; J62


Tags: educational choice; intergenerational transmission of education; regression discontinuity design

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CEP discussion paper
International Financial Flows and Misallocation Federico Cingano and Fadi Hassan
June 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1697:
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JEL Classification: F30; F43; G21


Tags: international financial flows; misallocation; productivity

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CEP discussion paper
Automation, Globalization and Vanishing Jobs: A Labor Market Sorting View Ester Faia, Sebastien Laffitte, Maximilian Mayer and Gianmarco Ottaviano May 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1695:
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JEL Classification: O33; O47; F16; F66; J64


Tags: automation; offshoring; two-sided heterogeneity; positive assortativity; wage inequality; horizontal specialization; core-task-biased technological change

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CEP discussion paper
Damned by Dams? Infrastructure and Conflict Ulrich J. Eberle
May 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1694:
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JEL Classification: D74; H54; N40; O13; O18; Z18


Tags: dams; infrastructure; conflict; civil war; ethnicity; fractionalization; inequality

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CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 and social mobility Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin
May 2020
Paper No' CEPCOVID-19-004:
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CEP Covid-19 analysis
Self-employment in the Covid-19 crisis Jack Blundell and Stephen Machin
May 2020
Paper No' CEPCOVID-19-003:
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Tags: self-employed workers; unemployment; seiss; cjrs

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CEP discussion paper
COVID-19, Lockdowns and Well-being: Evidence from Google Trends Abel Brodeur, Andrew E. Clark, Sarah Flèche and Nattavudh Powdthavee May 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1693:
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JEL Classification: I12; I31; J22


Tags: boredom; covid-19; loneliness; well-being

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CEP discussion paper
All These Worlds are Yours, Except India: The Effectiveness of Cash Subsidies to Export in Nepal Fabrice Defever, Jose-Daniel Reyes, Alejandro Riaño and Gonzalo Varela May 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1692:
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JEL Classification: F13; F14; F61; O24


Tags: export subsidies; export diversification; export margins; least developed countries; special and differential treatment for developing countries; nepal

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CEP Covid-19 analysis
Work, care and gender during the Covid-19 crisis Claudia Hupkau and Barbara Petrongolo
May 2020
Paper No' CEPCOVID-19-002:
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Tags: job losses; service sector; childcare; flexible working solutions

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CEP discussion paper
O Brother, Where Start Thou? Sibling Spillovers on College and Major Choice in Four Countries Adam Altmejd, Andrés Barrios Fernandez, Marin Drlje, Joshua Goodman, Michael Hurwitz, Dejan Kovac, Christine Mulhern, Christopher Neilson and Jonathan Smith May 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1691:
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JEL Classification: I21; I24


Tags: sibling effects; college and major choice; peer and social network effects

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CEP discussion paper
Monopsony and the Wage Effects of Migration Michael Amior and Alan Manning
May 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1690:
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JEL Classification: J31; J42; J61


Tags: migration; wages; monopsony

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CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 school shutdowns: What will they do to our children's education? Andrew Eyles, Steve Gibbons and Piero Montebruno
May 2020
Paper No' CEPCOVID-19-001:
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Tags: schools; school closures; covid-19; education; disadvantaged children

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CEP discussion paper
Managing Global Production: Theory and Evidence from Just-in-Time Supply Chains Frank Pisch
April 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1689:
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JEL Classification: F10; F14; F23; D23; L23


Tags: just-in-time; global value chains; supply chain management; multinational firms; vertical integration

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CEP discussion paper
A Survey of Gender Gaps through the Lens of the Industry Structure and Local Labor Markets Barbara Petrongolo and Maddalena Ronchi April 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1688:
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JEL Classification: J16; J21; J31; J61


Tags: gender gaps; industry structure; local labor markets

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CEP occasional paper
When to release the lockdown: A wellbeing framework for analysing costs and benefits Andrew Clark, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Daisy Fancourt, Nancy Hey, Christian Krekel, Richard Layard and Gus O'Donnell April 2020
Paper No' CEPOP049:
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JEL Classification: D6; D61; H12; I31


Tags: covid-19; wellbeing economics; cost-benefit analysis; health policy

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CEP discussion paper
On the Productivity Advantage of Cities Nick Jacob and Giordano Mion
April 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1687:
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JEL Classification: R12; R15; D24; L11


Tags: total factor productivity (tfp); density; agglomeration externalities; revenue-based tfp; prices; demand; quality

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CEP discussion paper
A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France Andrew E. Clark and Anthony Lepinteur
April 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1686:
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JEL Classification: I38; J13; J18


Tags: employment protection; layoff tax; perceived job security; difference-in-differences; fertility

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CEP discussion paper
Does Homeownership Reduce Crime? A Radical Housing Reform in Britain Richard Disney, John Gathergood, Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi March 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1685:
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JEL Classification: H44; K14; R31


Tags: crime; homeownership; public housing

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CEP discussion paper
Environmental Preferences and Technological Choices: Is Market Competition Clean or Dirty? Phillipe Aghion, Roland Bénabou, Ralf Martin and Alexandra Roulet March 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1684:
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Tags: environment; product market competition; innovation

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CEP discussion paper
Labor Demand in the Past, Present and Future Georg Graetz
March 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1683:
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JEL Classification: J23; O33


Tags: automation; labor demand; labor share; technology; wages

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CEP discussion paper
Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects Rita Cappariello, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya, Vanessa Gunnella and Gianmarco Ottaviano March 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1682:
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JEL Classification: F13; F15; F40; F60


Tags: trade model; supply chains; trade policy shocks; brexit

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CEP discussion paper
On the Economic Impacts of Mortgage Credit Expansion Policies: Evidence from Help to Buy Felipe Carozzi, Christian Hilber and Xiaolun Yu March 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1681:
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JEL Classification: G28; H24; H81; R21; R28; R31; R38


Tags: help to buy; house prices; construction; housing supply; land use regulation

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CEP discussion paper
Machiavelli Versus Concave Utility Functions: Should Bads Be Spread Out Or Concentrated? Paul Frijters, Christian Krekel and Aydogan Ulker March 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1680:
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JEL Classification: I31; D1; P35


Tags: wellbeing; mental health; life events; non-linearities; hedonic adaptation; welfare analysis

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CentrePiece article
In brief...Pupil exclusion in academy schools Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi ask whether stricter disciplinary measures are intended more to improve educational results than to tackle bad behaviour Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP575:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


JEL Classification: I20; I21; I28


Tags: academies; discipline; exclusion


This article summarises 'Autonomous Schools and Strategic Pupil Exclusion' by Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi, published in the Economic Journal in January 2020 earlier version available as CEP Discussion Paper No. 1527
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CentrePiece article
TV superstars: how a new technology disrupted the entertainment industry Felix Koenig explains how the rollout of TV in mid-twentieth century America benefited a handful of superstars but few other entertainers. Felix Koenig
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP574:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


JEL Classification: J31; J23; O33; D31


Tags: superstar effect; inequality; top incomes; technical change


This article summarises 'Technical Change and Superstar Effects: Evidence from the Roll-out of Television' by Felix Koenig, CEP Discussion Paper No. 1663
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CentrePiece article
In brief...Mismatched students and universities Gill Wyness and colleagues find that many disadvantaged students attend less academically prestigious courses than their A-level attainment merits. Gill Wyness
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP573:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


JEL Classification: I22; I23; I28


Tags: higher education; educational economics; college choice; mismatch; undermatch


This article summarises 'Inequalities in Student to Course Match: Evidence from Linked Administrative Data' by Stuart Campbell, Lindsey Macmillan, Richard Murphy and Gill Wyness, CEP Discussion Paper No. 1647
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CentrePiece article
The cost of being young: measuring intergenerational consumer prices Rahat Siddique explores an important aspect of the economic landscape facing the UK's young adults the 'millennial' generation. Rahat Siddique
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP572:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


Tags: real wages; intergenerational consumer prices; consumer price index; cpi

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CentrePiece article
In brief...Swings and silicon roundabouts: does cluster policy work? Max Nathan evaluates a flagship programme set up a decade ago to accelerate the growth of East London's Tech City. Max Nathan
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP571:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


JEL Classification: L53; L86; O31; R30; R50


Tags: cities; clusters; technology; economic development; synthetic controls


This article summarises 'Does Light Touch Cluster Policy Work? Evaluating the Tech City Programme' by Max Nathan, CEP Discussion Paper No. 1648
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CentrePiece article
People, places and politics: the challenge of 'levelling up' the UK Henry Overman assesses policies to address the wide disparities in economic performance between towns, cities and regions. Henry Overman
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP570:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


Tags: spatial disparities; skills; cities; left-behind places; 2019 general election


An earlier version of this article appeared in CEP's 2019 Election Analysis series as 'People, Places and Politics: Policy Challenges of the UK's Uneven Economic Geography'
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CentrePiece article
The UK's self-employed workers: who they are and what they need Jack Blundell is developing a typology of self-employed workers, in part to identify vulnerable groups who may benefit from policy support. Jack Blundell
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP569:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


Tags: self-employment; gig economy; worker characteristics


This article summarises 'Clusters in UK Self-Employment' by Jack Blundell, CEP Occasional Paper 48. The work was funded by the Turing-HSBC-ONS Economic Data Science Award.
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CentrePiece article
Can we be happier? Richard Layard and George Ward outline how we can boost wellbeing, both through public policy and in our jobs and private lives. Richard Layard and George Ward
March 2020
Paper No' CEPCP568:
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CentrePiece 25 (1) Spring 2020


Tags: wellbeing; happiness


This article draws on Can We Be Happier? Evidence and Ethics by Richard Layard with George Ward, published in January 2020 by Pelican.
Journal article
The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence F. Katz, Christina Patterson and John Van Reenen February 2020
Paper No' :
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JEL Classification: J3;L11


Tags: labour share; concentration; superstar firms

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CEP occasional paper
Clusters in UK Self-Employment Jack Blundell
February 2020
Paper No' CEPOP048:
Read Abstract | | Press Release(pdf) Full Paper (pdf)

Tags: self-employment; gig economy; worker characteristics

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CEP discussion paper
Automating Labor: Evidence from Firm-Level Patent Data Antoine Dechezleprêtre, David Hémous, Morten Olsen and Carlo Zanella
February 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1679.PDF:
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JEL Classification: O31; O33; J20


Tags: automation; innovation; patents; income inequality

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CEP discussion paper
The Contribution of Immigration to Local Labor Market Adjustment Michael Amior
February 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1678:
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JEL Classification: J61; J64; R23


Tags: immigration; geographical mobility; local labor markets; employment

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CEP industrial strategy
Has the Financial Crisis Undermined Credit Reallocation in the United Kingdom? Daniel Mead and Isabelle Roland
February 2020
Paper No' CEPIS08:
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Tags: credit reallocation; productivity; credit shock; great recession

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CEP discussion paper
The Rise of Agribusiness and the Distributional Consequences of Policies on Intermediated Trade Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro February 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1677:
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JEL Classification: F1; F6; Q1; O1


Tags: agribusiness; market power; intermediated trade; middlemen; oligopsony

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CEP discussion paper
Comparing Conventional and Machine-Learning Approaches to Risk Assessment in Domestic Abuse Cases Jeffrey Grogger, Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier February 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1676:
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JEL Classification: K42


Tags: domestic abuse; risk assessment; machine learning

Blog
The implications of Brexit for the UK economy
February 2020
Paper No' :
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Tags: brexit; economic impact

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CEP discussion paper
Who's Paying for the U.S. Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective Mary Amiti, Stephen J. Redding and David E. Weinstein
February 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1675:
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JEL Classification: F13; F14; F68


Tags: tariffs; trade war; passthrough

Book
Can We Be Happier? Evidence and Ethics Richard Layard
January 2020
Paper No' :


Tags: happiness; wellbeing

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CEP discussion paper
Import Competition, Heterogeneous Preferences of Managers and Productivity Cheng Chen and Claudia Steinwender
January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1674:
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JEL Classification: D22; D23; F14; L21; L22


Tags: import competition; productivity; family firms; managers

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CEP discussion paper
Intellectual Property and the Organization of the Global Value Chain Stefano Bolatto, Alireza Naghavi, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Katja Zajc Kejzar January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1673:
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JEL Classification: F12; F14; F21; F23; D23; L22; L23; L24; O34


Tags: sequential production; intellectual property; intangible assets; appropriability; stage complementarity; upstreamness; firm organization; outsourcing; vertical integration

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CEP discussion paper
The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-Level Data Timothy Besley, Isabelle Roland and John Van Reenen
January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1672:
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JEL Classification: D24; E32; L11; O47


Tags: productivity; default risk; credit frictions; misallocation

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CEP discussion paper
A Local Community Course That Raises Mental Wellbeing and Pro-Sociality Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Daisy Fancourt, Christian Krekel and Richard Layard January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1671:
Read Abstract | | Press Release(pdf) Full Paper (pdf)
Data Files associated with this paper.

JEL Classification: C93; I12; I31


Tags: wellbeing; pro-social behaviour; communities; intervention; rct

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CEP discussion paper
Globalization and Conflicts: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Corporations in Africa Tommaso Sonno
January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1670:
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JEL Classification: C23; D74; F23; L70; O13


Tags: multinationals; civil conflict; fdi; ethnic minority

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CEP discussion paper
Immigration, Local Crowd-Out and Undercoverage Bias Michael Amior
January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1669:
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JEL Classification: J61; J64; R23


Tags: immigration; geographical mobility; local labor markets; employment

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CEP discussion paper
Trade, Productivity and (Mis)allocation Antoine Berthou, John Jong-Hyun Chung, Kalina Manova and Charlotte Sandoz Dit Bragard
January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1668:
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JEL Classification: F10; F14; F43; F62; O24; O40; O47


Tags: international trade; export demand; import competition; productivity; allocative efficiency; misallocation