|This centre is a member of The LSE Research Laboratory [RLAB]: CASE | CEE | CEP | FMG | SERC | STICERD||Cookies?|
Paper No' CEPDP0782: | Full paper
Save Reference as: BibTeX File | EndNote Import File
Keywords: Second Order Solution; Oil Price Shocks, Endogenous Trade-off
JEL Classification: E52; E42; E12; C63
Is hard copy/paper copy available? YES - Paper Copy Still In Print.
This Paper is published under the following series: CEP Discussion Papers
Share: Google Bookmarks | Facebook | Twitter
Abstract:This paper provides a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework to study the interaction between oil price volatility, pricing behavior of firms and monetary policy. We show that when oil has low substitutability, firms find it optimal to charge higher relative prices as a premium in compensation for the risk that oil price volatility generates on their marginal costs. Overall, in general equilibrium, the interaction of the aforementioned mechanisms produces a positive relationship between oil price volatility and average inflation, which we denominate inflation premium. We characterize analytically this relationship by using the perturbation method to solve the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. The solution implies that the inflation premium is higher when: a) oil has low substitutability, b) the Phillips Curve is convex, and c) the central bank puts higher weight on output fluctuations. We also provide some quantitative evidence showing that a calibrated model for the US with an estimated active Taylor rule produces a sizable inflation premium, similar to the levels observed in the US during the 70s.
Copyright © CEP & LSE 2003 - 2013 | LSE, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE | Tel: +44(0)20 7955 7673 | Email: email@example.com | Site updated 22 May 2013