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CEP in the News 2017     feed/rss

Public Finance

LSE growth commission sets out economic reform proposals

Britain’s tax laws are biased in favour of the self-employed and should be reformed to enable greater investment in people instead of buildings and machines, the LSE Growth Commission has said. This was one of the findings of a report released by the commission today on how the UK can achieve inclusive and sustainable growth after Brexit. In the study, authors identify four key priority areas: jobs and skills, industrial strategy, economic openness, and finance and growth. The commission consists of senior figures from business, politics and academia and was formed in 2013 to provide authoritative and evidence-based policy recommendations. UK Growth: A New Chapter was based on the input of senior policymakers, business people and academics, including two former chancellors, George Osborne and Alastair Darling.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Public Finance - LSE growth commission sets out economic reform proposals

CEP Growth

CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Tim Besley webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage



News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

UK banks' loss of EU passport a ‘major threat', LSE study says

The U.K. government must ensure British financial-services companies don’t lose their ease of access to the European Union after Brexit as a “matter of urgency,” according to a report backed by high-profile British economists including former Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean. The study, compiled by the London School of Economics with input from business leaders, ex-policy makers and academics, says the U.K. needs to retain near-equivalent European Union passporting rights and warned that alternatives are “costly and time-consuming.”  It sets out a list of recommendations for Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration to bolster growth, including prioritizing free-trade deals with the U.S. and EU. It also encourages the government to boost skills, develop an industrial strategy, and increase competition in finance.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017

 


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - UK banks' loss of EU passport a ‘major threat', LSE study says

CEP Growth

CEP Trade

Anna Valero webpage

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Richard Davies webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Tim Besley webpage



News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

Brexit Bulletin: What Can By-Elections Tell Us About Brexit?

Snippet: ... Due today: latest migration figures from the ONS, and a report on the economy from the LSE Growth Commission.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - Brexit Bulletin: What Can By-Elections Tell Us About Brexit?

CEP Growth

CEP Trade

Anna Valero webpage

Richard Davies webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Philippe Aghion webpage

Tim Besley webpage



News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

El Financiero

El Dinero no da felicidan, sobre todo si es poco

Almost eight out of 10 people think that money spoils people. This is supported by one of the gurus of the research of happiness, Richard Layard.

Related publications

Happiness:  Lessons from a New Science, Richard Layard, Penguin, 2005.  2nd edition: 2011; ISBN 0713997699

https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/54928/happiness/9780241952795/


Related Links:
El Financiero - El Dinero no da felicidan, sobre todo si es poco

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 21/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Dien dan (Vietnam)

The index of real economic policy of China in record level 672.82 points

Index of uncertainty in the economic policy of China and Hong Kong (China-Hong Kong Economic Policy Uncertainty Index-CHEPUI) are at record levels 672.82 points after soaring up fivefold higher than the average rate in 22 years.  This index tracks the frequency of mention of economic uncertainties related to the policy of South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most prestigious English newspaper of Hong Kong. It is part of the tracking system developed by Scott Baker in Northwestern University, Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis from the University of Chicago.

Related publications

'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty', Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 131, Issue 4, November 2016

http://bit.ly/2m481r4

 


Related Links:
Dien dan (Vietnam) - The index of real economic policy of China in record level 672.82 points

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 20/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

China economic policy has never been more uncertain. Sort of.

Economic policy is always challenging to decipher in China, where Communist Party leaders steer one of the world's most opaque central banks. Indeed, one measure of uncertainty has never been higher amid complications from Hong Kong's politics to Donald Trump's protectionism. The China-Hong Kong Economic Policy Uncertainty Index stands at a record 672.82 after soaring to more than five times its average in data stretching back 22 years. The gauge tracks mentions of policy-related economic uncertainty in Hong Kong's main English-language newspaper, the South China Morning Post. It's part of a suite of trackers developed by Northwestern University’s Scott Baker, Stanford University’s Nick Bloom and Steven Davis from the University of Chicago.

Related publications

'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty', Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 131, Issue 4, November 2016 http://bit.ly/2m481r4


Related Links:
Bloomberg - China economic policy has never been more uncertain. Sort of.

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 20/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gulf News

6 in 10 say ban children from social networks

A majority six of ten Gulf News poll respondents think children should be banned from using social media sites altogether. Their opinion is in line with the findings of a study by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, in the UK. Researchers found that banning mobile phones from school premises caused test scores of students to improve by 6.4 per cent — the equivalent of adding five days to the school year.


Related Links:
Gulf News - 6 in 10 say ban children from social networks

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 20/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Get Surrey

Attending ‘outstanding' nursery has limited benefit for children, university research reveals

University of Surrey's economics senior lecturer, Dr Jo Blanden, said: "Successive governments have focused on improving staff qualifications, based on the belief these are important for children's learning. "Our research finding that having a graduate working in the nursery has only a tiny effect on children's outcomes surprised us. "It is possible it is driven by the types of qualifications held by those working in private nurseries, they are not generally equivalent to the qualifications of teachers in nursery classes in schools."  The study was conducted by researchers at the Centre of Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, University of Surrey and University College London.

 


Related Links:
Get Surrey - Attending ‘outstanding' nursery has limited benefit for children, university research reveals

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 19/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP and the media

Looking to raise your profile?

The BBC is looking for female experts in a whole range of areas who would like to appear on air as presenters or contributors. This is a wonderful opportunity for early career or established female academics who are interested in raising their profile and gaining some experience in the broadcast media.

Click here for more details.


Related Links:
CEP and the media - Looking to raise your profile?



News Posted: 17/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Impact

CEP article on Top Downloaded of the Economic Journal

Congratulations to Richard Layard, Andrew E. Clark, Francesca Cornaglia, Nattavudh Powdthavee and James Vernoit, who authored What Predicts a Successful Life? A Life-course Model of Well-being. The article, which features in volume 124 of the Economic Journal (EJ), has recently been listed on the Top Downloaded page of the EJ website. Since its publication in 2014, the article has received 11,796 downloads, and in 2016 it was the most downloaded article in the journal for that year.

Related publications

‘What Predicts a Successful Life? A Life-course Model of Well-being’, Richard Layard, Andrew E. Clark, Francesca Cornaglia, Nattavudh Powdthavee and James Vernoit, The Economic Journal, Vol 124, Feature Issue, November 2014

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecoj.12170/epdf


Related Links:
CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage

Andrew Clark webpage

Nick Powdthavee webpage



News Posted: 17/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Shropshire

Research from LSE says graduate nursery staff have little effect on children's attainment.

…and there's a good piece on the BBC news website if you have a look at it so the couple of days so it is very current and it says gradual nursery staff have little effect on children OK having a graduate teacher industry only has a limited impact on children's attainment this is new research from the Centre of Economic Performance at the London school of economics.


Related Links:
BBC Radio Shropshire - Research from LSE says graduate nursery staff have little effect on children's attainment.

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 17/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Quartz

Economists quantified what sleep deprivation does to mothers' pay and productivity

When Joan Costa-Font became a father, the health economist noticed a dramatic drop in his productivity. “And I am the man,” he said, acknowledging that the effect was clearly worse on his wife.

He and Sarah Flèche, a labor economist, decided to quantify the productivity drop. The novel way they chose to do it was to look at how children disrupt mothers’ sleep, and how that disruption in turn affects mothers’ labor force productivity, including hours worked and income earned.


Related Links:
Quartz - Economists quantified what sleep deprivation does to mothers' pay and productivity

Parental Sleep and Employment: Evidence from a British Cohort Study

CEP Wellbeing

Sarah Fleche webpage



News Posted: 17/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Day Nurseries

Charity disputes research which claims qualified nursery teachers have ‘tiny effect' on children's learning

Save the Children has disputed research which found nurseries with a qualified nursery teacher have only a “tiny effect” on children’s attainment.

Earlier this week, researchers from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, the University of Surrey and University College London, found that children who attended a nursery that employed a graduate had an Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) score that was only around a third of a point higher than those whose nurseries did not employ a graduate. The total number of points available is 117. Lead author Dr Jo Blanden, senior lecturer in Economics at Surrey University, said: “Our research finding that having a member of staff qualified to graduate level working in the nursery has only a tiny effect on children's outcomes surprised us, given existing research that finds well-qualified staff have higher quality interactions with children.” However, Save the Children has claimed that children without an early years teacher are almost 10 per cent less likely to meet the expected levels of development when they start school compared to children who do have a teacher. This comes from its ‘Untapped Potential’ report last November.


Related Links:
Day Nurseries - Charity disputes research which claims qualified nursery teachers have ‘tiny effect' on children's learning

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 17/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sun FM

Worrying start in a life of education for Wearside children

"… there are many early years providers that do not employ graduate staff but nevertheless offer high-quality care and education." "As research published by the London School of Economics this week found, quality in the early years is about more than staff academics, and so it's important that we don't apply overly-simplistic solutions to complex problems."


Related Links:
Sun FM - Worrying start in a life of education for Wearside children



News Posted: 17/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Miami Herald online

World leaders, researchers, economists slated to speak at World Happiness Summit

Miami will be the site of the first global gathering of governmental leaders, economists, academics and researchers for the World Happiness Summit next month, the summit announced.

The H20 is one of four tracks being organized by the inaugural World Happiness Summit. Confirmed participants for the governmental track include former President of Mexico, Vicente Fox; spiritual leader and peace negotiator Sri Sri Ravi Shankar; World Happiness Report co-author Sir Richard Layard, founder of the Wellbeing Center at the London School of Economics; Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness Center Director Dr. Saamdu Chetri; Harvard happiness researcher and author Tal Ben-Shahar; Smart Dubai’s Director General Dr. Aisha Bin Bishr; and dignitaries from more than 40 countries.


Related Links:
Miami Herald online - World leaders, researchers, economists slated to speak at World Happiness Summit

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 16/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Monopolies are worse than we thought

A recent paper by David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson and John Van Reenen speculates that tech might have enabled the rise of a few “superstar” companies in each industry. The fact that leaders in more concentrated industries also tend to have higher productivity supports this hypothesis. Technology might have simply changed the nature of markets so that the winners take most of the profits.

 


Related Links:
Bloomberg - Monopolies are worse than we thought

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 15/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Manchester Evening News

What do Ofsted know about three-year-olds? Parents at this ‘inadequate' nursery say it's nonsense

A university study says that inspectors are failing to spot the best and worst nursery schools by using 'traditional methods'

Parents have defended a pre-school rated ‘inadequate’ by Ofsted as a report shows the watchdog’s inspections don’t always reveal the best nurseries. The report published this week shows that sending children to an ‘outstanding’ nursery makes barely any difference to how well they develop in their early years. Researchers at the London School of Economics, University of Sussex and University College London, discovered that traditional measures used to evaluate nursery schools by inspectors failed to spot the best or worst schools.


Related Links:
Manchester Evening News - What do Ofsted know about three-year-olds? Parents at this ‘inadequate' nursery say it's nonsense

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 15/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

NaturalNews.com

Dutch families are raising the world's happiest kids, according to new study

Childhood has a tremendous influence on a person’s entire life. A study from the London School of Economics exploring what makes people happy found that a person’s emotional health as a child was the strongest determinant of their mental well-being as they got older, which is why parents need to take a proactive role in their children’s life and ensure their physical and emotional needs are being met.

Related articles

Vox – 12 December 2016

Origins of happiness: Evidence and policy implications

Andrew Clark, Sarah Fleche, Richard Layard, Nattavudh Powdthavee and George Ward


Related Links:
NaturalNews.com - Dutch families are raising the world's happiest kids, according to new study

CEP Wellbeing

Andrew Clark webpage

Sarah Fleche webpage

Richard Layard webpage

Nick Powdthavee webpage

George Ward webpage



News Posted: 15/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post Deutschland

US-Top-and#336;konom erwartet unter Trump ''wirtschaftliche Blüte ungekannten Ausmaßes''/US top economist expected to trump ''economic boom of unprecedented proportions

Von anderen Star-Ökonomen waren eher pessimistische Stimmen zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung unter Trump zu hören. So sagt Stanford-Ökonom Nicholas Bloom, ...

Related publications

'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty', Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 131, Issue 4, November 2016

http://bit.ly/2m481r4


Related Links:
Huffington Post Deutschland - US-Top-and#336;konom erwartet unter Trump ''wirtschaftliche Blüte ungekannten Ausmaßes''/US top economist expected to trump ''economic boom of unprecedented proportions

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Day Nurseries

'Outstanding' nurseries have 'tiny effect' on children's attainment

The report titled 'Nursery Quality: New evidence of the impact on children’s outcomes', found that staff qualifications and Ofsted ratings cannot predict the quality of early years education, arguing that conventional methods of testing quality do not have a significant influence on educational outcomes. Co-author Dr Jo Blanden, senior lecturer in Economics at the University of Surrey, said: "Successive governments have focused on improving staff qualifications, based on the belief that these are important for children’s learning.


Related Links:
Day Nurseries - 'Outstanding' nurseries have 'tiny effect' on children's attainment

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera TV

CEP on TV/Radio

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to Al Jazeera. The topic was the confirmation of Steven Mnuchin as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. The interview covered the proposed U.S. tax reforms and how changes to financial regulation might affect the U.S. dollar and international trade. 


Related Links:
Al Jazeera TV - CEP on TV/Radio

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

IZA Newsroom

Does modern technology slow down employment growth after recessions?

This phenomenon of labor market polarization (or “hollowing out” of middle-skilled jobs) has attracted widespread attention and contributed to the ongoing debate on the impact of technological change on labor markets. While much of the focus has been on the United States, Georg Graetz (Uppsala University and IZA) and Guy Michaels (London School of Economics and IZA) investigate in their recent IZA Discussion Paper whether labor markets in other countries have also been slow to pick up after recessions, and if modern technology could be to blame.


Related Links:
IZA Newsroom - Does modern technology slow down employment growth after recessions?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Phys.Org

New evidence of the impact of quality nurseries on children's outcomes

A report published today reveals that a child's educational achievement at the end of their reception year is only very slightly higher if he or she has been taught in nursery by a qualified teacher or early years professional. Attending a nursery rated as 'outstanding' by Ofsted, the regulator of educational quality in England, also has limited benefits. The study, conducted by researchers at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the University of Surrey and University College London, matches data on children's outcomes at the end of reception with information on nurseries attended in the year before starting school for 1.6 million children born between September 2003 and August 2006.

 


Related Links:
Phys.Org - New evidence of the impact of quality nurseries on children's outcomes

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News - Education

Graduate nursery staff have 'little effect' on children

Having a graduate teacher in a nursery has only a limited impact on children's attainment, new research suggests.

In England the government wants more graduate staff in nurseries in a bid to boost children's literacy and numeracy. But a study published by the London School of Economics (LSE) claims highly qualified staff had only a "tiny" effect on attainment. One early years group said the the report challenged "many of the assumptions" around current policy. The researchers, from the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE, Surrey University and University College London, looked at figures, drawn from the National Pupil Database, on about 1.8 million five-year-olds who started school in England between 2008 and 2011.


Related Links:
BBC News - Education - Graduate nursery staff have 'little effect' on children

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Telegraph (Print edition)

Pulling rank Top nurseries fail to raise prospects

Sending children to a nursery school rated “outstanding” by Ofsted makes barely any difference to how well they develop, researchers at the London School of Economics, University of Surrey and University College London discovered.

[Link unavailable.]


Related Links:
Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BT.com

Nursery staff qualifications have little effect on pupils' achievement – study

Researchers from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, Surrey University and University College London, compared data on children's results with information on nurseries attended in the year before starting school for around 1.8 million youngsters born in England between September 2003 and August 2006. The findings showed that children who attended a nursery that employed a graduate have a teacher assessment score around a third of a point higher, where the total number of points available was 117.


Related Links:
BT.com - Nursery staff qualifications have little effect on pupils' achievement – study

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 13/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Nursery World

Graduate settings have little impact on children's outcomes

New research finds that attending an outstanding nursery, or one with graduate staff, has a limited benefit to children's educational attainment.

The study of 1.8 million children born between September 2003 and August 2006, reveals that a child’s educational achievement at the end of their reception year is only ‘slightly’ higher if he or she has been taught in nursery by a qualified teacher or Early Years Professional (EYP).

It also found that attending a nursery rated outstanding by Ofsted had limited benefits.


Related Links:
Nursery World - Graduate settings have little impact on children's outcomes

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 13/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

TES

Qualified nursery teachers make little difference to attainment, study finds

Children with graduate nursery teachers achieve only slightly more by the end of Reception than children with unqualified teachers

Children who have access to a qualified teacher at nursery school do only slightly better at age 5 than those who do not, research suggests.

A new study concludes that a child’s educational achievement at the end of their Reception year is only very slightly higher if they have been taught in a nursery with a teacher trained to graduate level.

There was also little difference between those attending a nursery rated "outstanding" by Ofsted and others.

Researchers from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, the University of Surrey and University College London, compared data on children's results with information about the nurseries they attended in the year before starting school for around 1.8 million people born in England between September 2003 and August 2006.


Related Links:
TES - Qualified nursery teachers make little difference to attainment, study finds

Quality in Early Years Settings and Children’s School Achievement

CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage



News Posted: 13/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit four times worse for UK economy than previously believed, say MIT economists

New research claims leaving the EU will have bigger impact on UK productivity than had been thought

Britain’s departure from the European Union could cause output losses of as much as 9.5 per cent, according to new research. Calculations using models that incorporate productivity measures show a negative impact on gross domestic product per capita of almost four times that of previous estimates, according to John Van Reenen, a professor of applied economics at the MIT Sloan School of Management who supported the campaign for the UK to remain in the EU.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit four times worse for UK economy than previously believed, say MIT economists

Brexit: the final assessment

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 09/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Rochdale Observer

Is it time for a dedicated tax to fund the NHS?

A dedicated tax is the only way that we can be sure the government is reflecting public wishes, argues Richard Layard, emeritus professor at the London School of Economics. He points out that Britain currently spends less on health as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) than other countries at the same income level - and that nearly half of Britons say they are willing to pay for a better service and almost none want it cut. “If, as in Germany, there were a dedicated source of funding for the healthcare sector, it would be much easier for public demand to be translated into action,” he writes.


Related Links:
Rochdale Observer - Is it time for a dedicated tax to fund the NHS?

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 09/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sun

Taxing Times: Brits should pay a dedicated NHS tax to fund the ailing health service, expert says

Britain currently spends less on health as a share of national income than other equivalent countries, according to economist Professor Richard Layard

BRITS should pay a dedicated tax to fund the ailing NHS, a leading expert says.  Professor Richard Layard, an economist at the London School of Economics, claims it is the only way to ensure the government reflects public wishes.


Related Links:
The Sun - Taxing Times: Brits should pay a dedicated NHS tax to fund the ailing health service, expert says

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 09/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNBC

Brexit will leave Britons more than $4,000 poorer, says MIT professor

Britons' incomes could be slashed by as much as 9.5 percent once the U.K. formally leaves the European Union, a new study released today by MIT economics professor John Van Reenen has claimed.

The report points to a 6.3 to 9.5 percent reduction in GDP per capita with the U.K. outside of the EU's single market on the basis that a one percent decline in trade reduces income per capita by between 0.5 and 0.75 percent.


Related Links:
CNBC - Brexit will leave Britons more than $4,000 poorer, says MIT professor

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 08/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Finansgundem.com (Turkey)

Brexit, national income per capita in the UK to drop

Brexit, national income per capita in the UK to drop

On June 23, a referendum MIT faculty member, Professor John Van Reenen advocated keeping Britain in the EU.


Related Links:
Finansgundem.com (Turkey) - Brexit, national income per capita in the UK to drop

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 08/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Work improves general happiness, but are you happy while you work?

By checking on people at random times of the day via an app, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron uncover the misery of work.

Related links

Alex Bryson, CEP Alumni, Labour Markets Programme.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Work improves general happiness, but are you happy while you work?

Are you happy while you work?

Are You Happy While You Work?

CEP Labour Markets



News Posted: 08/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

theBMJ

Head to Head: Is it time for a dedicated tax to fund the NHS?

A dedicated tax is the only way that we can be sure the government is reflecting public wishes, says Richard Layard, but John Appleby argues it would not protect funding from economic uncertainty

Yes—Richard Layard

Taxpayers finance the National Health Service. But how much are they willing to pay for it? No one has any idea. The service is financed from general taxation and there is thus no real way in which the public can express its wish for a better (or worse) funded service. If instead there were a specific funding stream dedicated to health, there could be a real public debate about how much people were willing to pay. And this debate would be particularly intense at the time of general elections, ensuring that our healthcare system in some way reflected the wishes of the population.


Related Links:
theBMJ - Head to Head: Is it time for a dedicated tax to fund the NHS?

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 08/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNBC

Trump's trade war may have already begun

"The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade," said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. "You don't even know who you're going to hurt with these kind of things. You're probably going to destroy American jobs in the end."


Related Links:
CNBC - Trump's trade war may have already begun

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

On the spatial distribution of development: the roles of nature and history

Economists point to three factors to explain how population is distributed: geographical characteristics, agglomeration, and history. This column, taken from a new Vox eBook, examines how economic and technological development have changed the ways in which two first-nature characteristics – suitability for growing food and suitability for engaging in trade – impact population distribution. 

This column first appeared as a chapter in the Vox eBook, The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History, Volume 1, available to download here.


Related Links:
Vox - On the spatial distribution of development: the roles of nature and history

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Vernon Henderson webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

The Today Programme

Dr Hilary Steedman discusses IFS report criticising huge investment into apprenticeships.

0725
Is the way in which the Government will fund new apprenticeships a monumental waste of money? Dr Hilary Steedman is a senior research fellow at LSE specialising in apprenticeships.

 


Related Links:
BBC Radio 4 - The Today Programme

CEP Education and Skills

CEP CVER

Hilary Steedman webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The New York Times

Trump's trade war may have already begun

“The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade,” said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. “You don’t even know who you’re going to hurt with these kind of things. You’re probably going to destroy American jobs in the end.”


Related Links:
The New York Times - Trump's trade war may have already begun

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Star Tribune Online

World awaits next move amid threat of trade war

Most experts have assumed the responsibilities of governance would temper Trump's trade posture. Given that nearly one-third of all U.S. trade is conducted with China and Mexico, a rupture risks severe economic damage. "The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade," said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. "You don't even know who you're going to hurt with these kind of things. You're probably going to destroy American jobs in the end."


Related Links:
Star Tribune Online - World awaits next move amid threat of trade war

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Personnel Today

Apprenticeship levy and targets risk being poor value for money

Dr Hilary Steedman, senior research fellow at The London School of Economics, speaking on the BBC’s Today programme, said: “I think the IFS has really overstated their case here. We have a really serious skills problem in this country and we need to raise skills through apprenticeships in order to promote economic growth and improve our productivity levels, which are dire compared to Europe.”


Related Links:
Personnel Today - Apprenticeship levy and targets risk being poor value for money

CEP Education and Skills

CEP CVER

Hilary Steedman webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Delo (Slovenia)

Trump(izem) - return to the future

Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University) explores the political uncertainty in the world, and from 1900 on, he found out that after his election Trump increased uncertainty by at least twice and is comparable to that during the great economic crisis, the end of the twenties of the last century.


Related Links:
Delo (Slovenia) - Trump(izem) - return to the future

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Cash (Germany)

Verunsicherte medien, zuversichtliche unternehmen – wer behalt recht?

A study of three researchers Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven j. Davis has revealed that the current economic uncertainty is still higher than during times of 9 / 11 or the Lehman collapse. The experts at Swiss life asset managers analyze the situation.

Have, the Brexit and the US insecure you elections? Then, you're not alone. Researchers Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven j. Davis attempting to measure the economic insecurity and to depict in an index. It is collected for 12 countries, captured how often words with reference to uncertainty and instability in the media. Currently, index is higher than to times of crisis like 9/11, the Lehman collapse, or Europe's debt crisis the "economic policy uncertainty".


Related Links:
Cash (Germany) - Verunsicherte medien, zuversichtliche unternehmen – wer behalt recht?

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

Workers are happier with less hierarchy

The World Wellbeing Panel agrees that every effort should be made to reduce middle management, write Nick Powdthavee and Paul Frijters.

Workers’ satisfaction with their job is, on average, higher in a flatter organisation than in a hierarchical organisation. That is the consensus finding of a survey of leading researchers on wellbeing from around the world on the impact of different organisational structures on workers’ wellbeing.

The World Wellbeing Panel on wellbeing and organisational structures is available here. The experts, their affiliations and their responses to the survey are here.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review - Workers are happier with less hierarchy

CEP Wellbeing

Paul Frijters webpage

Nick Powdthavee webpage



News Posted: 30/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

NZZ.at (Germany)

Ignorant and irresponsible

Not surprisingly, when an index for global political uncertainty, compiled records so unsafe level, inter alia by the Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, on a high, (Stanford). And Austria's foreign trade must prepare for uncertain times (the press).


Related Links:
NZZ.at (Germany) - Ignorant and irresponsible

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 27/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Quint

Blame monopolies for short-changing U.S. workers

There are several worrying trends in the global economy, such as rising inequality within countries and slowing productivity growth. But perhaps the most troubling of them is the fall in labor’s share of national income. … Two new papers suggest that the rise might be due to an increase in market concentration. If industries are slowly inching toward monopoly, a few superstar companies in each sector could be squeezing profits out of the rest of the economy. The first of these new papers is by a large, star-studded team from the U.S. and Europe -- David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson and John Van Reenen. Titled “Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share,” it is short, clear and relies on relatively simple theories and general observations.

 

Related publications

Autor D, Dorn D, Katz LF, Patterson C, Reenen JV. Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. Forthcoming;107 (5).

 


Related Links:
Bloomberg Quint - Blame monopolies for short-changing U.S. workers

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 27/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Does a firm hiring an experienced manager improve its performance?

Exporters to Angola that hired managers with specific types of experience were more likely to succeed, write Giordano Mion, Luca David Opromolla and Alessandro Sforza.

The enormous variation in firm performance has become a focus of empirical and theoretical interest throughout the social sciences, including economics. ... We believe the next question to be addressed in this literature is what happens when managers move from one firm to another. Does a firm hiring a good manager improve its performance? How much? If yes, is it due to the manager intrinsic capabilities or is it due to the knowledge and abilities the manager has learned in previous firms? What happens to the firm when the “good” manager leaves?


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Does a firm hiring an experienced manager improve its performance?

The Diffusion of Knowledge via Managers' Mobility

CEP Trade

Giordano Mion webpage

Alessandro Sforza webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

YLE (Finland)

Taloudellinen epävarmuus kalvaa brexit-Britanniaa

Britain's economy made a decision after the brexit-lock braking. One-third of the companies that froze investment plans as a result of a decision. The collapse of the value of the pound sterling told the concern in the market. Light in the darkness is brought to the car manufacturer Nissan's fall made an extensive investment decision. The British Government has committed itself to the EU get rid of presented 7 000 jobs in the creative vitality after spending as evidence of Brexit in. However, the decision by the secretive Government boosted Nissanille. Researcher Swati Dhingra to keep secret the agreement concern.


Related Links:
YLE (Finland) - Taloudellinen epävarmuus kalvaa brexit-Britanniaa

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Businessweek

Trump's uncertainty principle

The cloud of uncertainty Trump has kicked up may be a big deal for the economy, or not. … For one thing, uncertainty isn’t necessarily bad. It simply means the distribution of possible outcomes—both upward and downward—has widened. Investors in the stock market seem to be betting on the upside of the distribution, judging from the 6.5 percent rise in the S&P 500 since the election. It’s also possible that what looks like economic uncertainty is really just scary reports in the news media. Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, an originator of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, joked (I think) in an e-mail, “It may simply be the news has no connection to reality—as you know from Trump, you guys are the biggest liars.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg Businessweek - Trump's uncertainty principle

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Challenges.fr (France)

2016: ''in success formidable pour l'industrie automobile britannique''

Thomas Sampson, Professor at the London School of Economics, warns that in addition to tariffs, British producers may suffer the impact of foreign barriers. "They would have to reorganize all of their supply chain, which could disrupt significantly the automotive industry" in the country, he warns.


Related Links:
Challenges.fr (France) - 2016: ''in success formidable pour l'industrie automobile britannique''

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

ABS/CBN News

Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British carmakers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs. "Inside the customs union cross-border supply networks can flourish, but if trade in car parts faces tariffs, rules-of-origin restrictions and other border barriers, then producers will need to reorganize their supply chain, potentially causing substantial disruption to trade in the car industry," he told AFP.


Related Links:
ABS/CBN News - Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Le Point.fr

En renouveau, l'industrie automobile britannique a la croisee des Chemins du Brexit

Thomas Sampson, Professor at the London School of Economics, warns that in addition to tariffs, British producers may suffer the impact of foreign barriers. "They would have to reorganize all of their supply chain, which could disrupt significantly the automotive industry" in the country, he warns.


Related Links:
Le Point.fr - En renouveau, l'industrie automobile britannique a la croisee des Chemins du Brexit

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

France 24

Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Last week Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed Brexit would see Britain leave the European single market, creating a stumbling block for the car industry which relies on trading vehicles and loose parts without paying duties. Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British carmakers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs.


Related Links:
France 24 - Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

New Statesman

How the government's industrial strategy could steal your job

Britain’s manufacturing heritage is told through faded photos of workers on assembly lines, or operating basic tools. But that was the 1970s, and in the 21st century, a factory has a lot more robots. Using robots raises productivity by 0.37 per cent, according to a recent LSE/Uppsala study, and we are still in the early stages of development. Surely any 21st century, productive, British entrepreneur worth his or her salt would embrace automation?


Related Links:
New Statesman - How the government's industrial strategy could steal your job

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business World

Could 'Brexit' put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British car makers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs. “Inside the customs union cross-border supply networks can flourish, but if trade in car parts faces tariffs, rules-of-origin restrictions and other border barriers, then producers will need to reorganize their supply chain, potentially causing substantial disruption to trade in the car industry,” he told AFP.


Related Links:
Business World - Could 'Brexit' put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Deutsche Welle TV (DW-TV) online

Theresa May 'needs free trade deal' with Donald Trump to prove that Brexit works

DW spoke to economist Thomas Sampson from the London School of Economics ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May's visit to the White House. She is the first world leader to meet the new US President Donald Trump.

DW spoke to economist Thomas Sampson from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, an expert in international trade relations.

DW: Thomas Sampson, can Theresa May expect to reach any substantial agreement?

Thomas Sampson: She's hoping for an agreement to start talking. Until the UK actually leaves the EU, it can't make trade deals with other countries anyway. There are limits on what can be agreed. What May wants is to come back and say to the British people: We don't have a deal yet, but Trump is open to talk about a free trade agreement once we've left the EU. That's her goal.


Related Links:
Deutsche Welle TV (DW-TV) online - Theresa May 'needs free trade deal' with Donald Trump to prove that Brexit works

CEP Trade



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Carnetericpeyre.blog (France)

Carnetsecret: Bonne synthèse d'Ariane Chemin sur le revenu universel où l'on constate qu'il ne s'agit pas d'une question économique mais bien de société

A multitude of studies weaken the prophecy of universal income advocates: that of researchers Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels (2015) , who found, by analyzing seventeen countries over fifteen years, the robot had a close win Half point of growth per year without affecting employment.


Related Links:
Carnetericpeyre.blog (France) - Carnetsecret: Bonne synthèse d'Ariane Chemin sur le revenu universel où l'on constate qu'il ne s'agit pas d'une question économique mais bien de société

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage



News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

New Statesman

If you want to fix Britain's economy, there's one word you need to remember

And it isn't "infrastructure"

Improving our management skills is part of this. John van Reenen at the London School of Economics has written about how the quality of management in different countries can explain as much as a third of their differences in productivity.


Related Links:
New Statesman - If you want to fix Britain's economy, there's one word you need to remember

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 25/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wall Street Journal Americas (Spanish)

Hechos alternativos para Trump y el Mercado de acciones

"It genuinely feels that the political uncertainty is very high," said Nicholas Bloom, Professor of Stanford and co-developer of the index of uncertainty.


Related Links:
Wall Street Journal Americas (Spanish) - Hechos alternativos para Trump y el Mercado de acciones

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 24/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Scotland

Good morning Scotland

Dennis Novy gave a live radio interview [8.35-8.40am] on Donald Trump and his withdrawal from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP, the trade deal previously negotiated by Barack Obama with Asian/Australian partner countries). How does the withdrawal from TPP affect global trade policy and the chances of a British trade with the U.S.?

[Listen about 2:37:00 in.]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Scotland - Good morning Scotland

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage



News Posted: 24/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Star

Britain 'faces imminent GENERAL ELECTION' after Brexit blocked in bombshell ruling

Speaking to Daily Star Online, John Van Reenen, Professor of Economics at LSE, said Mrs May might be tempted to strengthen her hand in parliament. He said an election could boost her authority in both Houses, giving her a strong mandate to push through a “hard Brexit” agenda. But he added that she may “just stick to the current course” because she is “cautious by nature”.


Related Links:
The Daily Star - Britain 'faces imminent GENERAL ELECTION' after Brexit blocked in bombshell ruling

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 24/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

El Periodico

Autora de in informe sobre el impacto de las grandes superficies

Maria Sanchez Vidal: "the coexistence between Commerce of proximity and large surfaces trade is possible"

Is author of a study on the effect of the introduction of superstores in respect of a city trade.

Related publications  'Small shops for sale! The effects of big-box openings on grocery stores', Maria Sanchez, SERC & IEB mimeo

 


Related Links:
El Periodico - Autora de in informe sobre el impacto de las grandes superficies

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Maria Sanchez webpage



News Posted: 24/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

13:24

Snippet: ...Mention of  LSE research on productivity in UK compared to productivity in France and Germany
... that LSE researchers suggest that by Thursday lunchtime the other countries have produced as much as it takes us to produce by Friday afternoon ...

 

Related article

BBC News - 21 May 2015

Why the productivity gap?

Professor John Van Reenen, head of the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, makes the point rather graphically: "By Thursday lunchtime the other countries have produced as much as it takes us to produce by Friday afternoon when we knock off work. "So basically we could take every Friday off if we could be as productive as those other countries and earn the same amount of money."

 

 


Related Links:
BBC Radio 4 - 13:24

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Fortune

Why attacking free trade is great politics and bad economics

It has long been known that America’s Senate is less protectionist (i.e., more likely to favor trade deals) than the House. The usual explanation was that senators, representing larger territories, took a broader view.

But Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi discovered that only certain U.S. senators were less protectionist. Which senators? Precisely those basking in the relative comfort of the first four years of their terms. 

Related publications

'Policymakers' horizon and trade reforms: the protectionist effect of elections', Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi, Journal of International Economics, Vol 94, 2014.

 

 


Related Links:
Fortune - Why attacking free trade is great politics and bad economics

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage



News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg view

Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

In a new paper called “Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?,” economists George Graetz and Guy Michaels looked at 17 different developed countries, from 1970 through 2011. The title refers to the hypothesis that companies replace routine workers with machines. Graetz and Michaels basically find that the modern jobless recovery is a phenomenon unique to the U.S., and that other nations manage to quickly re-employ their middle-skilled workers once bad times end.


Related Links:
Bloomberg view - Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage



News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Critical Mental Health Nurses' Network blog

The Layard Report

In December 2016 an electronic version of a new report became available, prior to its imminent publication in book form, by the London School of Economics. Dubbed ‘The Layard Report’ after key author Richard Layard, the actual title is The Origins of Happiness: How new science can transform our priorities. A title like that is about the boldest that could be imagined; one expects a treatise that brings together the biggest questions of philosophy from the past and present and the disciplines of psychology and psychiatry, and all kinds of intriguing demographic research. This is, after all, a 200 page document, packed full with diagrams, graphs and illustrations. In essence, the report makes one central claim: That the government is wrong to focus on lifting people out of poverty. Instead, happiness would be more efficiently created by a focus on the treatment of depression and anxiety.

 

Related Articles

Vox – 12 December 2016

Origins of happiness: Evidence and policy implications, Andrew Clark, Sarah Fleche, Richard Layard, Nattavudh Powdthavee and George Ward

 

 


Related Links:
Critical Mental Health Nurses' Network blog - The Layard Report

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

20 Minutos blog

Perder el empleo baja la nota media de los hijos

La inestabilidad de los contratos y el desempleo de los padres tienen efectos negativos en el rendimiento educativo de sus hijos. Es una de las principales conclusiones de un estudio elaborado por la investigadra catalana Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, del Centre for Economic Performance, de la London School of Economics.

Read pdf of the article here


Related Links:
20 Minutos blog - Perder el empleo baja la nota media de los hijos

In brief...Parental job loss: the impact on children's school performance

Job Loss at Home: Children's School Performance During the Great Recession in Spain

CEP Education and Skills

Jenifer Ruiz-valenzuela webpage



News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

Most rich countries hire back workers after a recession. The U.S. replaces them with machines

Economists have recently discovered that it’s middle-skill routine jobs -- think of cashiers, telemarketers, or cooks -- that tend to get eliminated in jobless recoveries. In a landmark paper titled “The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries,” Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu found that it’s these workers who aren’t being hired back in the U.S. after recessions hit. In fact, the much-feared phenomenon of job polarization -- the separation of the labor market into low-paid grunt work and high-paid knowledge work -- happens entirely during these U-shaped recoveries. But does this happen in other countries? If not, there might be policy steps the U.S. could take to prevent this from happening. In a new paper called “Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?,” economists George Graetz and Guy Michaels looked at 17 different developed countries, from 1970 through 2011. The title refers to the hypothesis that companies replace routine workers with machines. Graetz and Michaels basically find that the modern jobless recovery is a phenomenon unique to the U.S., and that other nations manage to quickly re-employ their middle-skilled workers once bad times end.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage



News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

El Pais

Opinion: Microempresa y productividad: lecciones francesas

El predominio de las firmas de menos de 10 empeados es in obstaculo para la productividad e internacionalizacion

Article by Luis Garicano, Claire LeLarge and John Van Reenen

The prevalence of firms of less than 10 employees is a barrier to the internationalization.

In contrast to the more advanced economies, almost one in every two Spanish workers is employed in a micro-enterprise of less than ten people. In Germany, for example, this proportion is reduced to one of five workers. There is no doubt that this predominance of microenterprise in Spain is an obstacle to productivity and the internationalization of Spanish companies: invest in international trade or Automation is practically impossible for a firm of such small size.


Related Links:
El Pais - Opinion: Microempresa y productividad: lecciones francesas

CEP Growth

Luis Garicano webpage

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 22/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mail Online

Dr Max the Mind Doctor: Why anorexia has no respect for age

A horrifying study done by the London School of Economics a few years ago showed that while mental illness accounts for nearly half of all ill-health in the under-65s, only a quarter of people in need of treatment get it.


Related Links:
Mail Online - Dr Max the Mind Doctor: Why anorexia has no respect for age

Tackling Depression and Anxiety Disorders

The Depression Report: A New Deal for Depression and Anxiety Disorders

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 21/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gainsborough Standard

Should schools ban mobile phones in class?

However another study from the London School of Economics suggests a ban on phones has the effect of an extra week of classes over a pupil’s school year.

 

Also in:

Retford Today

Should schools ban mobile phones in class?

 


Related Links:
Gainsborough Standard - Should schools ban mobile phones in class?

In brief... Phone home: should mobiles be banned in schools?

Ill Communication: Technology, Distraction & Student Performance

CEP Education and Skills

Richard Murphy webpage



News Posted: 21/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

T13.cl

Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

"Trade agreements are based on have something to give to receive something in return. "Nobody is doing charity here", explains Swati Dhingra, academic at the center of economic performance at the LSE.


Related Links:
T13.cl - Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 20/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Mundo

Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

"Trade agreements are based on have something to give to receive something in return. No one is making charity here", explains Swati Dhingra, academic center of economic behaviour of the LSE.

Related Links:
BBC Mundo - Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Leeds

Snippet...

A recent study found a ban on phones generally helps classroom performance research by the London school of economics found that after schools outlawed mobiles test scores of pupils aged 16 improved by 6.4 %.


Related Links:
BBC Radio Leeds - Snippet...

In brief... Phone home: should mobiles be banned in schools?

Ill Communication: Technology, Distraction & Student Performance

CEP Education and Skills

Richard Murphy webpage



News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Asia

BBC Asian Network

Swati Dhinghra commenting on free trade and Brexit.

[Time: 08:00:24]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Asia - BBC Asian Network

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

The Today Programme

0750 Swati Dhingra interviewed.

After the UK gives up full membership of the EU's customs union exporters' goods could be facing checks and delays at Britain's border.


Related Links:
BBC Radio 4 - The Today Programme

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC 2

Newsnight

Swati Dhingra interviewed.  Speaking about Brexit and free trade.


Related Links:
BBC 2 - Newsnight

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Canary

At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

May’s speech suggests the UK is on course to aim for a bilateral agreement. Currently, countries like Switzerland pay around 40% as much as the UK’s contribution for EU membership for access on those terms, according to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). And that does not include free trade in services.


Related Links:
The Canary - At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

CEP Growth

CEP Trade

CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage



News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Theresa May's Brexit speech leaves small firms in the dark

Article by Swati Dhingra

No access to EU’s single market and replacement deals potentially decades away heightens uncertainty for UK businesses.

Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday was the government’s first informative announcement on what the UK will look like after Brexit. A customs union with the EU has been ruled out so the UK can negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU. This hard Brexit would mean that, after we leave, the UK will trade with the EU and the rest of the world under World Trade Organisation rules, until it has negotiated its new trade deals. That is unless we make an interim agreement with the EU before we leave, which would also need to be approved by the WTO. However, we still could not make trade agreements with countries outside the EU before Brexit without the EU’s approval. The EU continues to be our biggest trade and investment partner. Exiting the single market without any other trade deal with the EU in place would mean a 5% cost disadvantage for UK manufacturers, who would face import taxes in the EU.


Related Links:
Guardian - Theresa May's Brexit speech leaves small firms in the dark

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News

Brexit: the 'economic cost' of Sterling's surge in value after UK PM's speech

"Currency markets are always volatile and can be affected by political and economic views," Dr. Thomas Sampson, associate professor at the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics told Sputnik.


Related Links:
Sputnik News - Brexit: the 'economic cost' of Sterling's surge in value after UK PM's speech

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Middlesex Minds (Middlesex University London)

Is a robot after your job?

Evidence published in 2015 by Michaels and Graetz from a dataset of companies in 17 countries gathered between 1993 and 2007, suggests that while productivity increases with robotic innovation and some semi-skilled and lower skilled jobs are abandoned, “there is some evidence of diminishing marginal returns to robot use – ‘congestion effects’ -so they are not a panacea for growth……this makes robots’ contribution to the aggregate economy roughly on a par with previous important technologies, such as the railroads in the nineteenth century and the US highways in the twentieth century.” Neither do robots do away with the contradictions within capitalist accumulation.


Related Links:
Middlesex Minds (Middlesex University London) - Is a robot after your job?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage



News Posted: 16/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

SDPNoticias

Salud y amigos la formula de la felicidad segun la ciencia

Health and friends: the formula of happiness according to science

According to researcher Lord Richard Layard, people have not increased their levels of happiness in the past 50 years, while the average income has increased in countries that make up the research. This is because humans are more connected emotionally to your health and relationships, than money.

 

Related articles

The big factors affecting life satisfaction are all non-economic’, Andrew Clark, Sarah Fleche, Richard Layard, Nattavudh Powdthavee and George Ward, LSE Business Review blog, 12 December 2016


Related Links:
SDPNoticias - Salud y amigos la formula de la felicidad segun la ciencia

CEP Wellbeing

Andrew Clark webpage

Sarah Fleche webpage

Richard Layard webpage

Nick Powdthavee webpage

George Ward webpage



News Posted: 12/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

El Financiero

Cuando los ricos tambien lloran

When the rich also cry

Richard Layard in his book "Happiness", says that the standard of life is similar to the alcohol or to the drugs. Once is has some experience in that sense, is necessary follow ascending, if is you want to hold it satisfaction, as if outside a Vice.


Related Links:
El Financiero - Cuando los ricos tambien lloran

Mental Health: the Choice of Therapy for All

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 11/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Pavlovic Today

3 reasons why Brexit was astonishingly the right decision

With popular google search results ranging from “What is the EU” to “What will happen if we leave the EU” from Britain hours after the referendum, it is clear that Brexit was an unknowledgeable decision. However, the ones who did vote knowledgeably had their own reasons to do so. According to labour-market economists Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, countries who voted to leave had their weakest wage growth since 1997. For them, Brexit would mean greater opportunities and higher potential for economic growth. Other studies show that Brexit was a decision fueled by nonacceptance to social issues such as feminism and environmentalism that are taking place in Britain with it being part of the EU. Perhaps a major reason for citizens all over Britain is the rare opportunity to restore the country’s sovereignty, although undemocratic to Eurosceptics.

Related article

Brexit and wage inequality’, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, Vox, August 16, 2016 

 

Related publications

Brexit and wage inequality’, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin.  Chapter in Brexit beckons: thinking ahead by leading economists, R. Baldwin (Ed), August 2016

 


Related Links:
Pavlovic Today - 3 reasons why Brexit was astonishingly the right decision

CEP Labour Markets

Brian Bell webpage

Stephen Machin webpage



News Posted: 11/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Forbes

We won't even know if a robot takes your job

Using national level data on worldwide robot shipments across 17 countries, George Graetz and Guy Michaels show that robots may have been responsible for about a tenth of the increases in those countries’ gross domestic product between 1993 and 2007, and may have increased labor productivity growth by over 15%. This might sound like it’s a small number, but it’s not. According to the authors, this number is comparable to the impact of steam engines on British labor productivity growth in the 19th Century. Does this growth come at the expense of labor? Graetz and Michaels find some evidence that wages go up on average as robot use increases. But they also find some evidence that hours worked drops for low-skilled and middle-skilled workers. A paper by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo focuses on the effect of robots on the U.S. labor market and estimates that each additional robot reduces employment by seven workers and that one new robot per thousand workers reduces wages by 1.2 to 1.6%.


Related Links:
Forbes - We won't even know if a robot takes your job

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Guy Michaels webpage

Georg Graetz webpage



News Posted: 11/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffpost Politics

What makes people happy? Education policymakers must prioritise emotional health

As highlighted by LSE researchers, UK education policymakers have focused much of their attention on improving academic achievement over the last half century, in the hope that this will result in higher levels of life satisfaction amongst the population. But with this focus on high academic achievement, have we lost sight of why we want our children to get good grades?

Related Articles

Vox – 12 December 2016

Origins of happiness: Evidence and policy implications, Andrew Clark, Sarah Fleche, Richard Layard, Nattavudh Powdthavee and George Ward


Related Links:
Huffpost Politics - What makes people happy? Education policymakers must prioritise emotional health

CEP Wellbeing

Andrew Clark webpage

Sarah Fleche webpage

Richard Layard webpage

Nick Powdthavee webpage



News Posted: 11/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Morning Star

Modern childhood a vital class issue for the left

A nasty mix of neoliberalism and the Tories’ austerity policies are having appalling effects on our children’s health and welfare

And so we come to the present day, with a 10-year anniversary press letter appearing in the Guardian on Boxing Day, co-organised with Dr Sharie Coombes and signed by a host of cultural luminaries — including Rowan Williams, the NUT’s Kevin Courtney, (Sirs) Jonathon Porritt, Anthony Seldon and Richard Bowlby; writer Philip Pullman; psychologists Oliver James, Susie Orbach and Sue Gerhardt; educationalists Robin Alexander, Penelope Leach, Sir Christopher Ball, Guy Claxton and Sir Tim Brighouse and a host of eminent professors — including Baroness Susan Greenfield, Lord Richard Layard, Andrew Samuels and Sami Timimi. If all these eminent people, with stellar professional and academic reputations to protect, are prepared to sign a public letter as outspoken as ours about children’s wellbeing, then something surely is rotten to the core in neoliberal Britain and we must urgently do something about it.

 

Related article

Guardian

Letter: Screen-based lifestyle harms children’s health

A decade ago our first multiple-signatory “toxic childhood” press letter described how children’s health and wellbeing were being undermined by the decline of outdoor play, increasingly screen-based lifestyles, a hyper-competitive schooling system and the unremitting commercialisation of childhood.

Despite widespread public concern, subsequent policymaking has been half-hearted, short-termist and disjointedly ineffective. The above factors continue to affect children adversely, with “school and cool” displacing active, self-directed play at an ever-earlier age. Physical health problems like obesity continue to escalate, and mental health problems among children and young people are approaching crisis levels. As well as the intense distress caused to families, there are obviously longer-term social and economic consequences for society as a whole.


Related Links:
Morning Star - Modern childhood a vital class issue for the left

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Minyanville

Health is more important than wealth

The old folk saying "If you've got your health you've got your wealth" is finding new proponents from a recent study done by the London College of Economics, under the direction of Lord Richard Layard. Layard, who holds advanced degrees in medical science, economics, philosophy, and psychology, is quoted as saying "Research shows more clearly than ever that there is a direct correlation between a person's physical and emotional health and their happiness and satisfaction with life."


Related Links:
Minyanville - Health is more important than wealth

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aftenposten (Norway)

Professor: ''Det er rett og slett ikke tilfelle at innvandrere tar jobbene fra dem som allerede bor i landet''

"It is simply not the case that immigrants are taking jobs from those who already live in the country"

Professor Alan Manning denied that immigrants take jobs.  If it were so, wouldn't Canada and Australia have been a financial chaos?


Related Links:
Aftenposten (Norway) - Professor: ''Det er rett og slett ikke tilfelle at innvandrere tar jobbene fra dem som allerede bor i landet''

CEP Community

Alan Manning webpage



News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

iTECH POST

Millennials' happiness is tied to having close friends at work

A compilation of surveys show that millennial's happiness is closely tied to having close friends at work. Good working relationships seem to make people more productive and satisfied with life. …

In another study by Lord Richard Layard, it showed that people on average have reported feeling the same level of happiness in 50 years despite average income more than doubling, The Guardian says.

 

Related articles

The big factors affecting life satisfaction are all non-economic’, Andrew Clark, Sarah Fleche, Richard Layard, Nattavudh Powdthavee and George Ward, LSE Business Review blog, 12 December 2016


Related Links:
iTECH POST - Millennials' happiness is tied to having close friends at work

CEP Wellbeing

Andrew Clark webpage

Sarah Fleche webpage

Nick Powdthavee webpage

Richard Layard webpage

George Ward webpage



News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

“There’s absolutely no controversy about gravity models,” said Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at the London School of Economics, also pointing out that gravity models are the subject of the second chapter of the new handbook of international economics. Thomas Sampson, also an assistant professor at the LSE, added that the Cambridge team’s own analysis was itself methodologically flawed.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage



News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

The cost of taking mental health seriously

After decades languishing as one of the most underfunded medical problems, mental illness began to receive some of the attention it deserved under Tony Blair’s government. In 2006, a London School of Economics study led by Professor Richard Layard provided the inspiration for an expansion of psychotherapy services.


Related Links:
Financial Times - The cost of taking mental health seriously

Tackling Depression and Anxiety Disorders

The Depression Report: A New Deal for Depression and Anxiety Disorders

CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage



News Posted: 09/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Social mobility in the United States depends heavily upon where you live

There is considerable geographical variation in the opportunities available to disadvantaged children in the United States, according to research by Raj Chetty, who delivered the 2016 Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures at LSE. Maria Molina-Domene talked to him about his findings, the use of big data and the implications for policy.

Raj began his first lecture with a striking comparison of how far the United States is from achieving ‘the American Dream’ in terms of social mobility. He highlighted the fact that the probability of a child born to parents in the bottom fifth of the income distribution reaching the top fifth is 7.5 percent in the United States. This compares with the figure of 9 percent for the UK revealed in CEP research by Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Social mobility in the United States depends heavily upon where you live

Social Mobility in Britain: Low and Falling

CEP Labour Markets

Maria Molina-domene webpage



News Posted: 06/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE United States Politics and Policy blog

Social mobility in the United States depends heavily on where you live

There is considerable geographical variation in the opportunities available to disadvantaged children in the United States, according to research by Raj Chetty, who delivered the 2016 Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures at LSE. Maria Molina-Domene talked to him about his findings, the use of big data and the implications for policy.

Raj Chetty was in London in October to deliver three lectures on the theme of social mobility in the United States. While he was at LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), I talked to him about the use of big data in economic research, notably in the Equality of Opportunity Project that he leads. His findings on the differences in opportunity across local areas in the United States and the causal impact of neighborhoods were the core of his lectures.


Related Links:
LSE United States Politics and Policy blog - Social mobility in the United States depends heavily on where you live

In brief... Social mobility in the United States

CEP Labour Markets

Maria Molina-domene webpage



News Posted: 06/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Affairs (New Zealand)

Press Release: Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement

Sir David Metcalf has today (5 January 2017) been named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement to oversee a government crackdown on exploitation in the workplace.


Related Links:
Foreign Affairs (New Zealand) - Press Release: Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage



News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

It is the sport of kings and, apparently, tsars as well...

The minimum wage tsar is more interesting than the government would have you believe. The biography, as released by Whitehall, of Professor Sir David Metcalf, who has been appointed as the first director of labour market enforcement, lists several worthy previous public sector appointments. However, his university, the London School of Economics, paints a slightly more rounded picture, pointing out that he owns a leg in a racehorse and has been a steward at Kempton and Plumpton racecourses.


Related Links:
The Times - It is the sport of kings and, apparently, tsars as well...

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage



News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Home Office - gov.uk

Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement - press release

Sir David, who was chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee until August 2016, will set the strategic priorities for the:

  • Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority
  • Employment Agency Standards Inspectorate
  • HMRC’s National Minimum Wage enforcement team

Related Links:
Home Office - gov.uk - Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement - press release

CEP Labour Markets



News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Employers face jail over minimum wage

Employers who deny workers the minimum wage could face two years in jail under plans to accelerate a crackdown on unscrupulous companies and gangmasters.  The government will appoint a “labour market enforcement director” today to clamp down on the exploitation of casual workers.  The new role will be taken up by Sir David Metcalf, an industrial relations professor at the London School of Economics and, until recently, a key adviser to Downing Street on migration.


Related Links:
The Times - Employers face jail over minimum wage

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage



News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Planner

Housing professionals recognised in New Year's Honours

Paul Cheshire, economist and emeritus professor of economic geography at the LSE, has been awarded a CBE for services to economics and housing.


Related Links:
The Planner - Housing professionals recognised in New Year's Honours

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Paul Cheshire webpage



News Posted: 04/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Investors Chronicle

More profit warnings

Investors should brace themselves for more profit warnings in 2017.

This isn't simply because economic growth will slow this year: economists expect an expansion of only 1.2 per cent this year after 2 per cent growth last. Nor is it just because there's danger of a squeeze upon the profit margins of firms that don't export much. It's also because economic slowdowns affect the distribution of growth rates across companies. As the macroeconomy weakens, corporate growth becomes more negatively skewed, so that a disproportionate number of firms do badly. This was first pointed out by Paul Geroski and Paul Gregg in a study of the 1990-91 recession in the UK. They showed that just 10 per cent of firms accounted for 84 per cent of the drop in profits then. However, a recent paper by Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Fatih Guvenen and Sergio Salgado at the University of Minnesota shows that much the same is true around the world. They studied corporate sales growth in 44 countries between 1986 and 2013 and found that "periods of low economic activity are characterised by an increase in the probability of very large negative shocks at the firm level".


Related Links:
Investors Chronicle - More profit warnings

CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage



News Posted: 04/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mail Online

Gloomy economists forecast Brexit trouble ahead for the UK…despite getting it wrong last year

Four in ten leading economists are more pessimistic about Britain's future after Brexit, despite the buoyant economy since the vote, according to a new FT poll. While many are looking to 2017 for a spot of better luck than 2016, UK economists are less optimistic about what the coming year will bring, the annual survey found. The Financial Times asked 122 industry experts to give their predictions for the next 12 months, with the vast majority foreseeing the British economy losing steam in the wake of higher inflation and Brexit uncertainty.


Related Links:
Mail Online - Gloomy economists forecast Brexit trouble ahead for the UK…despite getting it wrong last year

CEP Labour Markets

CEP Growth

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Telegraph

11 green New Year's resolutions that put the planet first

According to a study from the London School of Economics, brisk walking is a better deterrent against obesity than any other form of exercise.

Men and women who walk briskly for more than 30 minutes a day were found to have lower BMIs and smaller waists than everyone else involved in the study.


Related Links:
Daily Telegraph - 11 green New Year's resolutions that put the planet first

CEP Wellbeing

Grace Lordan webpage



News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Mundo (Spain)

Trump, Brexit, eleccciones europeas y otros enigmas de la economía para 2017

El comercio mundial patas arriba

Swati Dhingra, especialista de comercio de la London School of Economics, pone el acento en otro peligro.

"Lo más grave sería una guerra comercial de Estados Unidos con China en caso de que imponga aranceles y que China apele ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio", le dijo Dhigra al dominical británico The Observer.

More serious would be a commercial war between United States with China should impose tariffs and that Chinese appeal before the Organization World of the trade", said Dhingra to the British Sunday paper ‘The Observer’.

Also in:  Hispantv.com ¿Cuáles son los enigmas principales de la economía para 2017?/What are the major mysteries of the economy for 2017?

 


Related Links:
BBC Mundo (Spain) - Trump, Brexit, eleccciones europeas y otros enigmas de la economía para 2017

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage



News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Brexit: 5 questions for 2017

Further reading

A derided expert speaks John Van Reenen, the outgoing director of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance takes no prisoners in a hard-hitting review of Brexit. Among other topics he examines the ‘lump of labour fallacy’ behind immigration concerns, the media’s Euroscepticism and Britain’s politicians, who are surely the “worst in living memory”. (LSE blog).

 

Related article

The aftermath of the Brexit vote – the verdict from a derided expert’, John Van Reenen, LSE British Politics and Policy blog, August 2, 2016

 


Related Links:
Financial Times - Brexit: 5 questions for 2017

CEP Growth

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Weaker pound expected to reduce immigration

Slower economic growth also predicted to deter new migrants

Question:  ‘What do you think will happen to immigration?’

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

It does not seems likely to change much and therefore not much impact to follow. A worry is that high skill immigration is slowed down by current events and attitudes.

 

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

Since negotiations will be still be going on after Article 50 triggered, there will not be much effect. Levels will probably remain high (net migration above 300k) until we exit in 2018 and more controls are then introduced. More EU immigrants will come in 2017 to avoid the 2018 controls. The reduction in immigration will reduce overall growth significantly and reduce GDP per capita a bit. The loss of deep access to Single Market due to ending free movement will be the main negative effect over long-run. Lower immigration will do nothing to help UK workers — see http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

See Also:

Financial Times

  1. Trump’s presidency could have ‘mildly positive’ effect for the UK

    ...signals regarding a future US-UK free-trade agreement. Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of...

    ...will rattle investors” said John Van Reenen, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of...

  2. Bank of England expected to keep its options open

    ...monetary discipline in the UK too. Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics...

    ...that the approach will be very cautious. On the whole upside risk for higher interest rates but slowly. John Van Reenen

  3. Inflation predicted to rise above 2 per cent target in 2017

    ..., falling below it at the start of 2018. Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics It seems...

    ...business cycle, wage increases and especially the weak pound are adding to inflationary pressures in 2017. John Van Reenen


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Weaker pound expected to reduce immigration

CEP Growth

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 02/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Chancellor likely to overshoot borrowing forecast, economists say

Contributing factors include weaker tax revenues and pressure to rein in cuts

Question:  ‘Do you think the government will need to borrow more than it has forecast in 2017?’

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

Government borrowing, if it is for areas that increase long-term growth, is not a bad thing. Indeed, while borrowing to fund infrastructure and innovation may increase the deficit in the short run it will probably decrease debt/GDP in the long run due to the effects on productivity and GDP growth (this is why countries like Italy that have not invested in these areas have low deficits but high debt/GDP). I believe, however, that UK borrowing will increase for the following good and bad reasons: (1) GOOD: because it seems that May’s government wants to bet on an active industrial and innovation policy: this requires an active investment strategy which in the short-run may increase the deficit. (2) BAD because Brexit will continue to be a major drain on the economy, causing government to waste a large amount of resources in managing the process (with evidence that they are already paying KPMG and other consultants exorbitant rates for the ‘outsourced’ part of this management), and also to make up for the lost (eventual) EU investment (Horizon, ERC, EIB etc). And (3) BAD because the fall in corporate income tax will increase the deficit, without having any effect on real investment. It will, I believe, only fuel inequality, which in the long run also raises the deficit, both due to the welfare payments that rise with inequality, and the lower tax receipts.

 

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

The current plans remain too optimistic. He will correctly use more flexibility to expand investment from current plans. Will not cur current deficit as much as planned.


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Chancellor likely to overshoot borrowing forecast, economists say

CEP Labour Markets

CEP Growth

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 02/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Economists gloomy on UK prospects for 2017

Growth will slow, incomes will be squeezed and investment delayed, FT survey finds

Question: ‘How much, if at all, do you expect UK economic growth to slow in 2017?’

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

It seems likely to that growth will be a fair bit slower than pre-Brexit referendum forecasts, mostly because the prospects of productivity and/or real wage growth do not look very promising.

 

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

Slow to about 1.4%. Greater policy uncertainty over Trump, Brexit & elections in France and Germany will harm investment and hiring

.


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Economists gloomy on UK prospects for 2017

CEP Growth

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage



News Posted: 02/01/2017      [Back to the Top]