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News for Trade

Press coverage involving Trade staff or research is listed below.

Spectator – Coffee House blog

The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

A major impediment to clarity has been the weight of advice from what Michael Gove calls ‘organisations with acronyms’ suggesting that  a ‘no deal’ on trade will greatly damage the UK economy. Our careful and detailed re-evaluation of the reports issued by the Treasury, OECD, the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance and others, shows that much of this was wrong. The key flaw in each case was the use of inappropriate benchmarks to judge the potential losses to the UK economy.


Related Links:
Spectator – Coffee House blog - The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Freakonomics Radio

Podcast - What are the secrets of the German economy - and should we steal them?

Podcast - What are the secrets of the German economy - and should we steal them?

Daniel Sturm interviewed alongside four other economists about the German economy.

Related publications

'History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports', Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm and Nikolaus Wolf, The Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3), August 2011

http://personal.lse.ac.uk/sturmd/papers/Redding-Sturm-Wolf-REStat-2011.pdf


Related Links:
Freakonomics Radio - Podcast - What are the secrets of the German economy - and should we steal them?

CEP Trade

Daniel M. Sturm webpage


News Posted: 12/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

London Review of Books

Letters – Vol 39 No. 20 19 October 2017 How not to do trade deals

Letter by Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta

Martin Sanderson points out that manufacturing accounts for only a small share of the UK workforce, and reasons that it is hardly right to say blue-collar British workers determined the referendum result (Letters, 5 October). We agree that the share is small – about 10 per cent – but the term is used to refer collectively to people in the regions of the UK that have suffered from the decline in manufacturing over the past thirty years, before which manufacturing accounted for 30 per cent of the workforce. Regions that relied directly or indirectly on manufacturing (including those dependent on tourism, for example), have experienced low and stagnating real wages. The work of our colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics shows that people in these lagging regions were more likely to vote to leave the EU.

Related articles

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals

‘Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas’, Monica Langella and Alan Manning, LSE British Politics and Policy blog, July 6, 2016

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/explaining-the-vote-for-brexit/


Related Links:
London Review of Books - Letters – Vol 39 No. 20 19 October 2017 How not to do trade deals

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 11/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Journal Articles

‘The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network’

Shaun Larcom; Ferdinand Rauch; Tim Willems, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 132, Issue 4, November 2017

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx020


Related Links:
CEP Journal Articles - ‘The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network’

The upside of London Tube strikes

The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network

CEP Trade

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 10/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Maui News - blog

Mutually assured destruction

In the London Review of Books, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta (economists in London) run down all the difficulties facing Britain in withdrawing from the European Union, in an article called “How Not to Do Trade Deals.” (See https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals). It turns out it is hard to recruit partners into an economic suicide pact. Who could have guessed?

Related articles

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals


Related Links:
The Maui News - blog - Mutually assured destruction

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 10/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Pembrokeshire council vote for Brexit working group

A working group will be set up to prepare Pembrokeshire for the effect of Brexit, following a council vote. The county could lose £35.4m in trade if the United Kingdom opts for a "hard" Brexit, according to a report by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
BBC News - Pembrokeshire council vote for Brexit working group

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 09/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Times

Still clueless on Brexit – and it is taking its toll

… Whether post-EU frictionless trade is even possible remains to be seen. In an article in the London Review of Books, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta of the London School of Economics pour cold water on t...

Related article

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals


Related Links:
The Sunday Times - Still clueless on Brexit – and it is taking its toll

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 08/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Ad.nl (Netherlands)

Brexit: van ‘taking back our money’ komt niets terecht/Brexit: 'taking back our money' is nothing wrong

Interview: Een harde Brexit kost iedere Brit 10 procent aan inkomen. Dat becijferde de jonge, gezaghebbende econoom Thomas Sampson. “Het aan banden leggen van het persoonsverkeer is heel kostbaar.”

Interview: A hard Brexit costs every Brit 10 per cent of income. That said the young, authoritative economist Thomas Sampson. "Carrying personal traffic is very expensive."

According to Thomas Sampson, the damage can only be limited if Prime Minister Theresa May insists almost all of the brexit's promises. But that does not seem to be a feasible card, politically. For many years, the economist has been studying economic models that chart the pros and cons of international trade.

Related links

Thomas Sampson CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=sampson


Related Links:
Ad.nl (Netherlands) - Brexit: van ‘taking back our money’ komt niets terecht/Brexit: 'taking back our money' is nothing wrong

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Western Telegraph

Report to Pembrokeshire County Council cabinet compares likely impact of Brexit to Sea Empress oil disaster

Brexit will hit Pembrokeshire harder than the Sea Empress disaster, according to a comparison made in a report for Cabinet next week. The Director of Development’s report ahead of an agenda item called 'Planning for Brexit' outlines a proposal that the County Council prepare for the change in financial circumstances likely once the UK “terminates” its membership of the EU. The report acknowledges the likely impact on Pembrokeshire is difficult to assess but looked at the findings of a study carried out by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Western Telegraph - Report to Pembrokeshire County Council cabinet compares likely impact of Brexit to Sea Empress oil disaster

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP at Party Conferences 2017

Labour Party Conference

Immigration Minister Rt Hon Brandon Lewis stated that the government was not looking to push skilled workers to leave the UK but to implement changes for further down the line to meet the demand for less migration balanced with allowing the economy to prosper. The Minister also referred to the importance of the Migration Advisory Committee which will feed into final decisions. The second LSE fringe event had a migration focus and was entitled ‘Mind the Skills Gap. A migration trade off?’. Chaired by Prof. Tony Travers, the panelists included the Minister of State for Immigration Rt Hon. Brandon Lewis MP and LSE alumnus Syed Kamall MEP . They were joined by Dr Swati Dhingra, Vicky Price, LSE alumna and Board Member for CEBR and Caroline Artis, Senior London Partner at Ernst & Young.

 

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a41a2fedb33c8943326acba1d/_compresseds/73617f3e-f6c7-452b-ad5e-4516d835232c.jpgThe shadow Immigration Minister Paul Blomfield suggested that whilst the party has now started the immigration conversation it hasn't done it well to date at the Labour Party Conference in Brighton the week before. The Shadow Minister said that the door will not just shut on migration for industries like hospitality and healthcare. There was also a focus on the lack of adult education and suggested improvements and alternatives were discussed. The 'Mind the Skills Gap. A migration Trade off?' event panel included Chi Onwurah MP, Shadow Minister for Industrial Strategy, Science and Innovation and Paul Blomfield MP the Shadow Minister for Exiting the European Union. Prof. Tony Travers chaired the event, and was joined by Dr Swati Dhingra and John Springfield, Centre for European Reform. The audience included, among others, journalists and lawyers.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
CEP at Party Conferences 2017 - Labour Party Conference

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Engagement

Conservative Party Conference

CAGE/SMF event at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester on Brexit. Dennis Novy talked about issues related to international trade, in particular the EU Single Market and customs union and potential new trade agreements.


Related Links:
CEP Engagement - Conservative Party Conference

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 03/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Mail

Trump goes to war with World Trade Organisation

Dennis Novy, professor of economics at the University of Warwick, said the tariff slapped on Bombardier was ‘designed to completely kill’ the C-Series programme. ‘Trump is telling the rest of the world that he doesn’t care about the rules,’ he said.


Related Links:
Daily Mail - Trump goes to war with World Trade Organisation

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 29/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Beacon

How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit - even outside the Single Market

Too many economists have refused to take seriously the idea that Brexit has the potential to provide economic benefits to the UK. Before the referendum, Treasury economists assured the public that a vote to leave would cause “an immediate and profound shock to our economy” leading to recession and a large increase in unemployment. These are predictions that have since proved to be very wide of the mark. Modelling by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicted that leaving the EU could only have negative consequences for the UK economy


Related Links:
The Beacon - How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit - even outside the Single Market

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 28/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit: 'Zero chance' leaving EU will make Britons better off, Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman says

Exclusive: Krugman rejects the assertions of Brexiteers that leaving the single market and customs union will ultimately help the UK export more to the rest of the world. A study by economists at the London School of Economics has estimated the damage could be as great as 9.5 per cent of GDP if the UK leaves the EU without a free trade deal.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit: 'Zero chance' leaving EU will make Britons better off, Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman says

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe blog

Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

Article by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon. On trade, the PM reiterated that the UK would be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union after Brexit. The UK would not pursue off-the-shelf arrangements, like those of Norway and Canada, as models for a future trade deal with the EU. The PM acknowledged that the Norway model would provide high levels of market access but it would also require free movement of people and adopting many of EU’s rules (without having a say in them). The Canada model would overcome these two issues, but it would not go very far in maintaining market access, particularly in services trade.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe blog - Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LBC Radio - Live with Nick Ferrari

How much does a #Brexit transition period help British business?

Dennis Novy was interviewed. The topic was the potential Brexit transition period, and to what extent it would help British business.

 

Related links

[subscription required]

http://lbc.audioagain.com/presenters/7-nick-ferrari/101-the-whole-show

 


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Les Echos (France)

Productivity is cultivated

Over the last decade, economists have worked hard on the impact of management on productivity. The effectiveness of management, measured by a set of indicators (quality of internal monitoring, setting clear objectives, promoting talent, appropriate incentives, etc.) remains a strength of America. Economists Nicholas Bloom of Stanford, Raffaella Sadun of Harvard and John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics estimate that management accounts for one-third of countries' total factor productivity lag in the United States covering 11,000 enterprises in 34 countries). Technological progress may be slowing down. But there are still huge fields of productivity to cultivate.


Related Links:
Les Echos (France) - Productivity is cultivated

Management as a Technology?

Management Practices Across Firms and Countries

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage

Raffaella Sadun webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Independent (Daily Edition)

Zero chance Brexit will make UK better off, Nobel laureate economist says

A study by economists at the London School of Economics has estimated the damage could be as great as 9.5 per cent of GDP if the UK leaves the EU without a free trade deal.

Related article

‘The cost of Brexit to trade? At least £850 per household, per year’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, LSE Brexit blog, 19 March 2017

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/03/19/the-cost-of-brexit-to-trade-at-least-850-per-household-per-year/


Related Links:
The Independent (Daily Edition) - Zero chance Brexit will make UK better off, Nobel laureate economist says

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

Theresa May stepped in to lead the discussion on what the UK hopes to achieve from its Brexit negotiations with the EU. Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon (CEP, LSE) argue that her Florence speech has set the tone for details that are yet to come.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 25/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economist

Letters to the Editor: Patrick Minford responds

Rather, by using detailed quality-adjusted OECD prices we reach roughly the same estimates of nontariff barriers that the researchers at the London School of Economics cite for their own w...


Related Links:
Economist - Letters to the Editor: Patrick Minford responds

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 23/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

European Union News – Durham University: Thought Leadership

How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit – even outside the single market

Professor of Finance and Economics, Kevin Dowd (Durham University), Professor David Paton (Nottingham University) and Professor David Blake (University of London) discuss how the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit…. Too many economists have refused to take seriously the idea that Brexit has the potential to provide economic benefits to the UK. Before the referendum, Treasury economists assured the public that a vote to leave would cause “an immediate and profound shock to our economy” leading to recession and a large increase in unemployment. These are predictions that have since proved to be very wide of the mark. Modelling by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicted that leaving the EU could only have negative consequences for the UK economy.


Related Links:
European Union News – Durham University: Thought Leadership - How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit – even outside the single market

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 20/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit: reflections on the first weekend

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit has just completed its first weekend of deliberations. As an earlier post explained, the Assembly is a gathering of people from across the UK who have been randomly selected to reflect the make-up of the electorate. They are meeting over two weekends to learn about options for the form Brexit should take – focusing on the issues of trade and immigration – discuss what they make of these options, and draw conclusions. … Our expert speakers also delivered magnificently. Angus Armstrong, David Paton, Thomas Sampson, and Shanker Singham spoke on trade policy.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit: reflections on the first weekend

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta: how not to do trade deals

Article by Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra: About half of Britain’s trade and investment is with the EU, and currently, as members, we implement almost the same standards for products and services. One of the few concrete things stated in the government’s white paper on Brexit was its intention to establish UK trading schedules – including import tariffs and quotas – at the World Trade Organisation, replicating ‘our existing trade regime as far as possible’. If no trade deals were struck with the EU after Brexit, the EU and UK would need to charge each other the tariffs they charge other WTO members. The average tariff rate is low – around 1.5 per cent – but some products attract higher tariffs. Cars, for example, incur a 10 per cent tariff, which the head of European manufacturing at Nissan stated would be a ‘disaster’ for the UK industry.


Related Links:
London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017 - Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta: how not to do trade deals

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Portfolio (Hungary)

Sok munka, sok adó: így élnek a londoni magyarok/There is a lot of work and a lot of taxes: so do the Hungarians living in London

Last year before the Brexit referendum, the Center for Economic Performance (CEP) produced a study on the economic impacts of Eastern European immigrants. The London School of Economics, a research institute from the results of labor market surveys, concluded that immigrants from the EU are typically younger, more skilled and more likely than the British born.


Related Links:
Portfolio (Hungary) - Sok munka, sok adó: így élnek a londoni magyarok/There is a lot of work and a lot of taxes: so do the Hungarians living in London

Immigration and the UK Economy

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

The great trade reset

Snippet: ...means goods will be subject to proof-of-origin checks as they cross borders. Research suggests this process adds extra cost on average to the underlying value of the goods, according to Nikhil Datta, a researcher at the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance...


Related Links:
Financial Times - The great trade reset

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

GetReading

See how MPs for Berkshire voted in the Brexit Repeal Bill

Earlier in the summer, research from think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics revealed Reading is likely to be one of the areas hit hardest by Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
GetReading - See how MPs for Berkshire voted in the Brexit Repeal Bill

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 12/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Social Europe

How Bad Will Brexit Really Be For The UK?

The great majority of the economic forecasts have concluded that Brexit will damage the UK economy. In the case of ‘no deal’ between the UK and the EU, the majority view is that the loss of GDP could be severe. The UK Treasury, the OECD and the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Policy (CEP) all agreed, in reports published during the referendum campaign, that with no deal the loss of GDP by 2030 would be in the range of 7-10%. A free-trade agreement (FTA) would be little better.


Related Links:
Social Europe - How Bad Will Brexit Really Be For The UK?

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 08/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Journal Articles

‘Service Trade and Occupational Tasks: An Empirical Investigation’, Andrea Ariu and Giordano Mion, The World Economy, Volume 40, Issue 9, September 2017

10.1111/twec.12440  


Related Links:
CEP Journal Articles - ‘Service Trade and Occupational Tasks: An Empirical Investigation’, Andrea Ariu and Giordano Mion, The World Economy, Volume 40, Issue 9, September 2017

Service Trade and Occupational Tasks: An Empirical Investigation

CEP Trade

Giordano Mion webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

I've been working with colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) and the Centre for Cities (Naomi Clayton) to take a first look at the local economic impacts of Brexit. You can read the more technical CEP piece here and the less technical Centre for Cities piece here. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Oxford Times

Brexit has had 'little affect' on Oxford's finances, report finds

A report by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance had suggested Brexit would leave all British cities adversely affected.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Oxford Times - Brexit has had 'little affect' on Oxford's finances, report finds

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Conatus News

Post-Brexit Industrial Strategy – Dawn of a New Era for Britain?

The Centre for Economic Performance at London School of Economics has predicted a soft brexit is likely to increase the cost of EU trade by 2%, causing a subsequent 1% fall in British GDP, while a hard Brexit will see costs of trade increase by 8%, and a 2% fall in GDP…

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Conatus News - Post-Brexit Industrial Strategy – Dawn of a New Era for Britain?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Marginal Revolution

French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Snippet…Here is the amazing fact: today, 16 of France’s 20 largest cities are located on or near a Roman town, while only 2 of Britain’s 20 largest are. This difference existed even back in the Middle Ages. So who cares? Well, Britain’s cities in the middle ages are two and a half times more likely to have coastal access than France’s cities, so that in 1700, when sea trade was hugely important, 56% of urban French lived in towns with sea access while 87% of urban Brits did…

That is from A Fine Theorem, discussing a recent paper by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch.

Also in

Politics in theory and practice 

“Resetting the Urban Network,” G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

Snippet…Cities have two important properties: they are enormously consequential for people’s economic prosperity, and they are very sticky…..

https://politicstheorypractice.wordpress.com/2017/09/03/resetting-the-urban-network-g-michaels-f-rauch-2017/

 

Bullfax 

French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Even at a very local level, the France/Britain distinction holds: when Roman cities were within 25km of the ocean or a navigable river, they tended not to move in France, while in Britain they tended to reappear nearer to the water. The fundamental factor for the shift in both places was that developments in shipbuilding in the early middle ages made the sea much more suitable for trade and military transport than the famous Roman Roads which previously played that role.

These days, the French model is looking somewhat better, as Toulouse has held its ground more readily than has Liverpool.

That is from A Fine Theorem, discussing a recent paper by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch.

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-french-cities-are-roman-sites-rather-sea


Related Links:
Marginal Revolution - French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 03/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Marginal Revolution

Flooded Cities

Snippet…Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters.


Related Links:
Marginal Revolution - Flooded Cities

Flooded Cities

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 01/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

A Fine Theorem

Resetting the Urban Network, G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

..With incredible timing, Michaels and Rauch, alongside two other coauthors, have another working paper called Flooded Cities. Essentially, looking across the globe, there are frequent very damaging floods, occurring every 20 years or so in low-lying areas of cities…


Related Links:
A Fine Theorem - Resetting the Urban Network, G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 30/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

ilsole24ore

I nuovi confini dei Governatori / The new borders of the Governors

Article by Gianmarco Ottaviano

Snippet..”Even this year, central bankers find themselves in Jackson Hole, one of the world's off-piste ski shrines. And, in fact, being in a historical moment outside the usual beaten paths is a widespread feeling. However, it is not the feeling Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi want to convey.”…


Related Links:
ilsole24ore - I nuovi confini dei Governatori / The new borders of the Governors

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 25/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Politics.co.uk

Why is the government so afraid to publish its Brexit impact studies?

There has been a veritable flood of studies indicating what an economic disaster awaits us if the government pursue its preferred hard Brexit route. If the government's own studies contain anything to counter this overwhelmingly pessimistic outlook, why have they not been released? We can only conclude that either the government is running scared of its own extreme form of leaving the EU, or it wants to keep a lid on the dire consequences of it. It's probably safe to assume therefore that the government's own analysis agrees with a recent Local Business Survey. It showed that of 419 small and medium sized enterprises surveyed in the South West of England, 57% of exporters believed the impact of leaving the single market will be 'negative' or 'very negative'. This compared with just ten per cent who think the impact will be 'positive' or 'very positive'. Or a recent study from the Centre for Economic Performance that examined the negative impacts of trade barriers. It predicts that under either a soft or hard Brexit scenario, leaving the EU will have a devastating impact on the economic performance of our towns and cities.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
Politics.co.uk - Why is the government so afraid to publish its Brexit impact studies?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economist

Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy – but one disagrees

Patick Minford thinks that GDP could increase by 6.8%

Mr Minford’s calculations are based on dubious assumptions. He also ignores the “gravity” effect, whereby close neighbours trade more with each other. He reckons any fall in trade with the EU will automatically be made up elsewhere. He attributes all the rise in Britain’s trade with the EU since it joined in 1973 to trade diversion, not trade creation, ignoring evidence to the contrary. And he says all price differences are caused by protection, whereas most reflect differing quality or regulatory standards. Swati Dhingra and her colleagues at the London School of Economics have used their Brexit model to recalculate the gains of unilateral free trade. It reduces the loss from a hard Brexit, but only slightly, from 2.6% of GDP to 2.3%.


Related Links:
Economist - Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy – but one disagrees

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Style

Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim ‘defies gravity’

A leading quartet of economists have taken issue with a report by pro-Brexit counterparts that paints a rosy picture for Britain should the country leave the EU without any trade deals in place. The four professors at the London School of Economics say the vision outlined by their peers, led by Prof Patrick Minford at Cardiff University, simply does not add up.


Related Links:
Yahoo! Style - Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim ‘defies gravity’

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 22/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

City A.M.

DEBATE: Is the Economists for Free Trade £135bn figure realistic?

“NO – Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics.

Economists for Free Trade’s estimate is misleading nonsense. It is based on an economic model that bears no relation to the facts of the global economy and, consequently, is contradicted by the data on international trade. Most importantly, the Economists for Free Trade fail to take into account that trade costs are higher when the UK trades with more distant countries and that consumers care about where goods are made …”


Related Links:
City A.M. - DEBATE: Is the Economists for Free Trade £135bn figure realistic?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP on Twitter

Deputy Leader of SNP group in Westminster and SNP Economy spokesman Kirsty Blackman MSP retweeted LSE: RT @KirstySNP:

Here's a piece from LSE debunking Prof Minford's post-Brexit trade theories and a quote from him about industry – see http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/.


Related Links:
CEP on Twitter - Deputy Leader of SNP group in Westminster and SNP Economy spokesman Kirsty Blackman MSP retweeted LSE: RT @KirstySNP:

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

fDi Magazine

The Brexit toll on FDI: The evidence so far 22:42

Foreign investment has dropped sharply since the June 2016's referendum as investors are holding off investments waiting for more clarity on the future of the country outside the EU. LSE’s lecturer Dr Swati Dhingra and fDi Magazine’s editor-in-chief Courtney Fingar share their insights with podcast host Jacopo Dettoni and comment on the proposal of developing free trade zones within British ports once the country leaves the European bloc for good.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
fDi Magazine - The Brexit toll on FDI: The evidence so far 22:42

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post

Economist Who Claims £135billion Hard Brexit Boost For UK Guilty Of ‘Violence To Basic Facts Of Economic Life’

The policy, known as ‘Britain Alone’, was savaged by The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, which suggested Minford’s work disregarded 40 years of established theory.


Related Links:
Huffington Post - Economist Who Claims £135billion Hard Brexit Boost For UK Guilty Of ‘Violence To Basic Facts Of Economic Life’

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Die Presse

EU-Erweiterung war ein gutes Geschäft / EU enlargement was a good deal

The fact that the EU's eastern enlargement to the EU in 2004 was a win-win for the "old" 15 Member States of the Union as well as for the newcomers in Central and Eastern Europe is clear in view of the overall positive economic figures. A four-member research team has now investigated the extent to which the prosperity gains for the citizens of the old and new Member States and for high and low-skilled workers were achieved. In a recently published study, Lorenzo Caliendo (Yale University), Luca David Opromolla (Banco de Portugal), Fernando Parro (Johns Hopkins University) and Alessandro Sforza (London School of Economics) concluded that the prosperity gains were unequally distributed.

Related publications

“Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement”, Luca D. Opromolla, Fernando Parro, Alessandro Sforza. August 2017. http://faculty.som.yale.edu/lorenzocaliendo/COPS.pdf


Related Links:
Die Presse - EU-Erweiterung war ein gutes Geschäft / EU enlargement was a good deal

CEP Trade

Alessandro Sforza webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

In Facts - Stop destructive Brexit

BBC gifts Brexit economists too much credibility

The views of Economists for Brexit / Free Trade have repeatedly been rebuffed elsewhere, for example in a report by a group of economists at the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance. They predict a 2.3% economic loss from Minford’s policy, rather than the 4% gain he claims. They argue Minford “misunderstands the nature of regulations and product standards”, seeing harmonisation across the EU as a “pernicious plot by vested interests to raise prices” rather than a proven way to increase trade and competition in a modern economy. They also reject Minford’s assumptions that countries will buy only from the lowest-cost supplier and not consider other factors such as geographic proximity, transport costs and quality. The economists conclude that “theories need grounding in facts, not ideology”.


Related Links:
In Facts - Stop destructive Brexit - BBC gifts Brexit economists too much credibility

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim 'defies gravity'

The LSE quartet – professors Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen – do concede that there is, potentially, a very minor boost to going it alone.

Their own models suggest that should the UK leave the bloc and trade under WTO rules, maintaining import tariffs, income per person falls by 2.6%. Under the ‘Britain alone’ scenario of unilateral liberalisation after Brexit, UK real incomes still fall by 2.3%....


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim 'defies gravity'

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Teraz.sk (Slovak)

The departure of Britain from the EU without agreement would not be a disaster by the IEA

"Compared to the results that would result from trading between the UK and the EU under WTO rules, unilateral liberalization (non-imposition of duties) would provide the United Kingdom with benefits because it would reduce its import costs," said Thomas Sampson, London School of Economist Economics, who did not see the IEA report.


Related Links:
Teraz.sk (Slovak) - The departure of Britain from the EU without agreement would not be a disaster by the IEA

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

'No Deal' With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

“Compared to an outcome in which the U.K. and the EU traded under WTO terms, there would be benefits for the U.K. to unilaterally liberalizing as it would reduce the cost of imports,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the London School of Economics, who hadn’t seen the IEA report. “The cost is you’re giving away the bargaining chip that you would normally use to get concessions out of the EU.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg - 'No Deal' With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

American Journal of Transportation

'No Deal’ With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

“Compared to an outcome in which the U.K. and the EU traded under WTO terms, there would be benefits for the U.K. to unilaterally liberalizing as it would reduce the cost of imports,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the London School of Economics, who hadn’t seen the IEA report. “The cost is you’re giving away the bargaining chip that you would normally use to get concessions out of the EU.”


Related Links:
American Journal of Transportation - 'No Deal’ With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 17/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Record.com

One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

Trump's efforts to bring work back to the U.S. could eliminate some jobs that are already here. "Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive," said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. "Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind."


Related Links:
The Record.com - One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNN (TV)

Rosemary Church

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to CNN (host: Rosemary Church). The topic was the economic impact of Brexit, in particular a potential brain drain from the UK jobs market and the proposed post-Brexit customs arrangement with the European Union.

 

 


Related Links:
CNN (TV) - Rosemary Church

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

City A.M.

Instilling competitive gender quotas could end the Crisis of the Mediocre Men

…A paper in the latest American Economic Review (AER) provides an intriguing perspective on the issue.

Tim Besley of the LSE and two Swedish colleagues carried out a very detailed empirical analysis of elections in Sweden over a 20 year period. The title effectively summarises their work: Gender Quotas and the Crisis of the Mediocre Man.

Related publications

“Gender Quotas and the Crisis of the Mediocre Man: Theory and Evidence from Sweden”

Timothy Besley, Olle Folke, Torsten Persson, Johanna Rickne. American Economic Review, vol. 107, no. 8, August 2017. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160080&&from=f


Related Links:
City A.M. - Instilling competitive gender quotas could end the Crisis of the Mediocre Men

CEP Trade


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

radioszczecin.pl

Wielka Brytania chce okresu przejściowego. Komentarze po dokumencie rządu / Britain wants a transition period. Comments after government document

The British government has issued a document on Tuesday expressing its willingness to ensure both sides have the greatest stability for several years after the Brexite, and at the same time it was time for London to negotiate agreements with the United States or India. Dr. Thomas Sampson, however, believes that the plan is too ambitious. - I would be very surprised if the Union and London reached an agreement before March 2019. I expect that this transition period will primarily serve to get more time to complete the negotiations, rather than simply putting into effect their results. Until we know what the deal looks like, it will be very difficult for Britain to make a commitment to other countries, "says Thomas Sampson.


Related Links:
radioszczecin.pl - Wielka Brytania chce okresu przejściowego. Komentarze po dokumencie rządu / Britain wants a transition period. Comments after government document

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Record.com

One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

"Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive," said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. "Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind."…

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
The Record.com - One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNN

CNN Live

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to CNN (host: Rosemary Church). The topic was the economic impact of Brexit, in particular a potential brain drain from the UK jobs market and the proposed post-Brexit customs arrangement with the European Union.


Related Links:
CNN - CNN Live

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Times of Tunbridge Wells

Report claims Brexit will sting whatever guise it comes in…

THE economies of both Tunbridge Wells and Tonbridge will suffer in the coming years due to Brexit, a new report by the London School of Economics claims. Titled The Local Economic Effects of Brexit, the study shows every authority in the UK will see its prosperity curtailed regardless of whether it is a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. According to the report, if the UK was to undertake a ‘hard Brexit’, then in the ten years after crashing out of the EU the economy of Tunbridge Wells will be 2.6 per cent smaller than if it had stayed in. … The report’s authors, who work for the university’s Centre for Economic Performance, state they have modelled their estimates on ‘medium to long run impact of changes to trade costs’, and have ignored effects on innovation, immigration and inward investment.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Times of Tunbridge Wells - Report claims Brexit will sting whatever guise it comes in…

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bankier (Poland)

Expert: Britain wants to speed up trade talks with brexitas

Dr Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics (LSE) said on Tuesday that the publication of UK government plans for a transition period and regulations after the breit suggests that London wants to speed up talks on a future free trade agreement with the EU.

Related Links:
Bankier (Poland) - Expert: Britain wants to speed up trade talks with brexitas

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

TVN24bis.pl

"Londyn chce przyspieszenia rozmów o handlu po brexicie" / "London wants to speed up talks about trade after brexit"

Dr Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics (LSE) said that the publication of the UK government's plans for a transition period and regulations after the breit suggests that London wants to speed up talks on a future free trade agreement with the European Union.

Also in

PolskieRadio.pl

Ekspert: pobrexitowy okres przejściowy nie pomoże Londynowi w zawieraniu umów z krajami pozaeuropejskimi / Expert: The transitional transition will not help London in concluding agreements with non-European countries

The London-backed transition period will not help the United Kingdom in entering into new trade agreements with countries outside the European Union, "said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the London School of Economics.

http://www.polskieradio.pl/5/3/Artykul/1818996,Ekspert-pobrexitowy-okres-przejsciowy-nie-pomoze-Londynowi-w-zawieraniu-umow-z-krajami-pozaeuropejskimi


Related Links:
TVN24bis.pl - "Londyn chce przyspieszenia rozmów o handlu po brexicie" / "London wants to speed up talks about trade after brexit"

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC TV

Victoria Derbyshire

Dr Swati Dhingra talks about the customs union plan.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
BBC TV - Victoria Derbyshire

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Fox Business

U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

Also, the U.K. paper isn't a negotiating document and presented technical ideas that weren't fully developed and lacked significant detail. The two long-term approaches "are worth exploring further, but the hard work of assessing whether these ideas could work in practice has yet to be done," wrote Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics in a blog.

Related article

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/15/uk-governments-customs-position-paper-fails-to-answer-key-questions/


Related Links:
Fox Business - U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

4-traders

U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

LONDON -- The U.K. government proposed a far-reaching customs arrangement with the European Union that it said would eliminate the need for border checks on imports and exports after Brexit. The "new customs partnership" with the EU was one of two suggestions the government put forward on Tuesday in a paper detailing its thinking on customs before resuming talks with Brussels this month over terms of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. … Also, the U.K. paper isn't a negotiating document and presented technical ideas that weren't fully developed and lacked significant detail. The two long-term approaches "are worth exploring further, but the hard work of assessing whether these ideas could work in practice has yet to be done," wrote Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics in a blog.

Related article

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/15/uk-governments-customs-position-paper-fails-to-answer-key-questions/


Related Links:
4-traders - U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

 

Related article

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/15/uk-governments-customs-position-paper-fails-to-answer-key-questions/


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNBC online

One US factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

"Altering Nafta could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive," said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. "Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind."

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
CNBC online - One US factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Honolulu Star Advertiser

One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

The latest concern unfolds this week, as the Trump administration begins to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, redrawing the terms of commerce with Mexico and Canada. “Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind.”

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
Honolulu Star Advertiser - One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

New York Times

One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

The latest concern unfolds this week, as the Trump administration begins to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, redrawing the terms of commerce with Mexico and Canada. “Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind.”

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
New York Times - One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Forsal.Pl (Poland)

What about international trade after brexit? Here are the possibilities and their consequences

The Center for Economic Performance estimated that in the case of such a scenario over the decade, trade would have fallen by 40 percent and average income by 2.6 percent.


Related Links:
Forsal.Pl (Poland) - What about international trade after brexit? Here are the possibilities and their consequences

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 14/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

The regions can be our road to revival, but only if transport links are improved

A rebalancing is long overdue. “Regional disparities are wider in the UK than other western European countries,” according to the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance. One reason why London’s productivity, and hence wealth, is so much greater than Britain’s other cities is the sophistication of the commuter network. Studies have shown that people tolerate roughly an hour’s travel but much more than that and the pool of labour available to an employer shrinks. With such a shallow pool of talent in sites as stranded as Cheshire science park, business would have to think twice about putting down roots.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017 

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Times - The regions can be our road to revival, but only if transport links are improved

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 12/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

KentLive

Thanet is predicted to be the worst affected area in Kent by a ‘soft Brexit’

Experts have predicted that Thanet would be the hardest hit area of Kent in a 'soft Brexit' scenario. A new study by the London School of Economics revealed that Thanet could lose £27.2 million – based largely on the assumption the UK could still negotiate access to the EU single market.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
KentLive - Thanet is predicted to be the worst affected area in Kent by a ‘soft Brexit’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Politics

Britain’s Not-So-Sweet Options for an EU Trade Deal

What if there is no deal?

A “very, very bad outcome,” in the words of Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. The U.K. would regain control of laws, money, immigration and ability to negotiate trade pacts. If pushed it could even slash taxes and regulations to create a Singapore-style economy focused on drawing investment. (Embracing fully free trade could increase the U.K.’s long-term gross domestic product by 4 percent, according to Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School.) But U.K. exporters would be subject to World Trade Organization duties and multiple non-tariff barriers. A hard border with Ireland would be needed, Britain-based airlines might not be able to land on the continent and the transportation of nuclear material would be impeded. The Center for Economic Performance estimated trade would fall 40 percent over a decade and average income by 2.6 percent in the no-deal scenario.


Related Links:
Bloomberg Politics - Britain’s Not-So-Sweet Options for an EU Trade Deal

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Prospect magazine

Hard or soft, Brexit will hit every British city—and pro-Leave areas will find it hardest to recover

People up and down the country can ill afford for silly season squabbles to distract us from the complexity of Brexit

…amidst the summer politicking and parties, a new report by Centre for Cities should make for sobering reading for Government ministers, particularly those pushing for a hard Brexit. The report (published in partnership with the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE) charts for the first time the likely impact of both a hard or soft Brexit on UK cities in the decade after new trade arrangements with the EU are put in place - and in both scenarios, the news isn’t good.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
Prospect magazine - Hard or soft, Brexit will hit every British city—and pro-Leave areas will find it hardest to recover

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Liberation.fr (France)

Sorti de l’UE: l’orchestre cacophonique de Londres/Exit of the EU: the cacophony orchestra of London

Theresa May on vacation, the ministers of soft and hard Brexit clash in the most perfect disorder. Economists, on the other hand, predict a decline in growth.

The government's hesitations have an impact on the economy. Time is of the essence, as uncertainty hangs over investment, warns Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England. Pessimistic, the institution has lowered its growth forecasts to 1.7% for 2017 and 1.6% for 2018. According to it, growth is penalized by the decline in the purchasing power of households. "The depreciation of the pound [which is worth 1.1 euro against 1.3 before the referendum] has led to an increase in inflation, which has reduced wage growth. Consumption has not yet declined, but households are saving less, "says Thomas Sampson, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics.

Related links

Thomas Sampson CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=sampson


Related Links:
Liberation.fr (France) - Sorti de l’UE: l’orchestre cacophonique de Londres/Exit of the EU: the cacophony orchestra of London

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 08/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CityMetric

Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

A lot of my time at work is given over to worrying fitfully about two things. One is cities policy. The other is Brexit. What could be more thrilling, then, than a report which combines those two topics into a single piece of research? The answer, as it turns out, is almost anything, because this report is one of the most depressing things I’ve seen in ages. The study, a joint effort between the Centre for Cities and LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, looks at what both “Hard” and “Soft” Brexit would do to the economies of 62 British cities. (In the unlikely event you’re unsure, “soft” Brexit means we stay in a free trade area with the EU, but have to content with new non-tariff barriers; “hard” Brexit means we have to deal with tariffs as well.)

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
CityMetric - Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 07/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wales online

Top economists have calculated the impact of a soft or hard Brexit on Swansea

Their research found that every local authority would be negatively affected under either scenario but concluded that the economic impact of leaving the single market and customs union would be around twice as severe as a milder Brexit. The academics said they were surprised that the additional cost of a hard Brexit was significantly higher in some areas than others – and cited the nature of industry and employment in those areas as the reason.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Wales online - Top economists have calculated the impact of a soft or hard Brexit on Swansea

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Spirit FM

West Sussex town ranked ‘second most affected' area post-Brexit

A new report by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicts Worthing will be on the places hit hardest by an expected downturn in trade after the country leaves the EU.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Spirit FM - West Sussex town ranked ‘second most affected' area post-Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Slough Express

Slough to be among top urban areas to feel negatie impact of Brexit, study says

New research suggests that Slough will be among the top five UK urban areas to be negatively impacted by Brexit. A report by the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance and think tank Centre for Cities says the South-east of England and urban areas will be hit the hardest. The paper, titled ‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, assesses the impact of trade barriers associated with 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit scenarios.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Slough Express - Slough to be among top urban areas to feel negatie impact of Brexit, study says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 05/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Press and Journal (Scotland)

‘Labour created the welfare state and will always fight to protect it'

Britain’s most successful cities with large high-skilled service sectors will be hit hardest by the expected downturn in trade after the UK leaves the EU. Sadly, that means bad news for Aberdeen. A report from the think-tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance placed the Granite City at the top of the list of “most affected” cities.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Press and Journal (Scotland) - ‘Labour created the welfare state and will always fight to protect it'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 04/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Trump wants to protect American jobs. His immigration bill would make us poorer.

Basically the only American-born group that you could even plausibly argue are harmed is high school dropouts. This is a fairly tiny group, but it’s not even clear they are harmed. Research by the University of Bologna's Gianmarco Ottaviano and UC Davis's Giovanni Peri finds that immigrants help the wages of even low-skilled American workers.

Related publications

‘Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages’. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri, 2011. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x/full


Related Links:
Vox - Trump wants to protect American jobs. His immigration bill would make us poorer.

Immigration, Offshoring and American Jobs

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 03/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Somerset County Gazette

Taunton Deane economy could take a Brexit hit of 1.2% to 2.3%

BREXIT will damage the economic performance of Taunton Deane, according to new report. The Centre for Economic Performance believes the economy in the district will take a 1.2 per cent hit under a sort Brexit - that is to say if Britain remains in the single market and the customs union. But a hard Brexit - leaving the two organisations - would see the economy suffer to the tune of 2.3 per cent. Molly Scott Cato, Green MEP for the South West, said: “This new study shows that both a hard and soft form of Brexit will have a devastating impact on the economic performance of our towns and cities across the South West.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Somerset County Gazette - Taunton Deane economy could take a Brexit hit of 1.2% to 2.3%

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Heart Berkshire (Radio)

[06:00:00]

Snippet: ... Reading has come out third on a list of 10 towns in the UK most likely to be hit hardest by Brexit report of the London School of Economics says Dorsey a fall i...

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Heart Berkshire (Radio) - [06:00:00]

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Getreading

Reading has been named as one of the areas likely to be hit hardest by Brexit

A new report put Reading in third place of areas worst hit by a hard Brexit

A new report by the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics reveals the cities and towns most affected by a soft leaving of the European Union and a hard exit.

Professor Stephen Machin, from the Centre for Economic Performance, added: “This research shows that focusing on the likely local economic impacts of Brexit will be a critical ingredient for policymakers when thinking about how to offset the negative economic effects that loss of trade due to Brexit will bring.”

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Getreading - Reading has been named as one of the areas likely to be hit hardest by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

This is Wiltshire

Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The authors of the report, Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman of the LSE’s Centre For Economic Performance, said: “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard’ Brexit.”

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
This is Wiltshire - Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 01/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Swindon Advertiser

Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The London School of Economics has published an analysis of the possible effects of a ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ Brexit on towns and cities all over the country.

The report predicts that Swindon’s GVA will decline by 2.8 per cent under a hard Brexit and 1.5 per cent under a soft Brexit.

The authors of the report, Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman of the LSE’s Centre For Economic Performance, said: “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard’ Brexit.”

But Ian Larrard, the director of the Swindon and Wiltshire Initiative at Business West, shrugged off the findings and said there was good reason to be optimistic.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Swindon Advertiser - Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Valenciaplaza

el peor de los tiempos OPINIÓN Sectarismo, género y números / the worst of times OPINION - Sectarianism, gender and numbers

snippet… As can be seen, at the end of all this we have fallen into the trap, after accounting for the number of men and women.  Is this relevant when it comes to funding an international scientific meeting, with a tradition of 20 editions and attracting 200 researchers from 64 different institutions and from more than 30 countries?  There is no point in evaluating the work anonymously, nor that invited speakers are prestigious figures in International Economics like Gianmarco Ottaviano , professor at the London School of Economics, probably the most important university in Europe in Economics…


Related Links:
Valenciaplaza - el peor de los tiempos OPINIÓN Sectarismo, género y números / the worst of times OPINION - Sectarianism, gender and numbers

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 30/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gazette Live

Hard or soft Brexit? This is what experts think the impact could be on Middlesbrough either way

Middlesbrough has been singled out as one of the places which could be hardest hit by Brexit.

As the debate over the terms of the UK’s exit of the European Union continue to be debated, the potential impact on regional economies have been analysed by a think tank.

Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at London School of Economics said wealthy Southern cities will be hit hardest by both a ‘soft’ or ‘hard’ Brexit - but are also best placed to adapt to economic shocks ahead.

                  Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Gazette Live - Hard or soft Brexit? This is what experts think the impact could be on Middlesbrough either way

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 30/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Appsforpcdaily.com

Brexit transition deal will end by 2022, says Philip Hammond

In findings released by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the potential impact of either Brexit "type" on major cities in the United Kingdom was analysed for the first time.


Related Links:
Appsforpcdaily.com - Brexit transition deal will end by 2022, says Philip Hammond

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Journal (Newcastle)

Brexit recovery harder for North East – study

…Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London…

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Journal (Newcastle) - Brexit recovery harder for North East – study

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Aberdeen to be worst hit by Brexit but all British cities will suffer

New research examining for the first time the potential impact of Brexit on cities and towns has found Aberdeen could be the hardest hit by higher trade costs with the European Union, though no British city will escape its effects.


Related Links:
The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

The UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

Article by Henry Overman: The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (working with the Centre for Cities think tank) has carried out a study shedding light upon the local economic impact of Brexit. Henry G. Overman writes that it is the richer cities, predominantly in the south of England, that will be hit hardest by Brexit, with this effect particularly apparent in areas specialised in services.


Related Links:
LSE British Politics and Policy blog - The UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

City AM

These are the six UK cities that will suffer most from a 'hard' Brexit

The study by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic performance at the London School of Economics found that cities with large high-skilled service sectors, such as business and financial services, are expected to be worst hit by potential tariff changes.

"This research shows that focusing on the likely local economic impacts of Brexit will be a critical ingredient for policymakers when thinking about how to offset the negative economic effects that loss of trade due to Brexit will bring," said Stephen Machin, from the Centre for Economic Performance.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
City AM - These are the six UK cities that will suffer most from a 'hard' Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Click Lancashire

Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

Smaller cities Crawley and Barnsley are predicted to have the lowest downturn in economic output of either a "hard" or "soft" Brexit, alongside cities like Hull and Wakefield. A new report today named Aberdeen as the United Kingdom city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit.

 

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Click Lancashire - Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Newburgh Gazette (Illinois, USA)

Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

Aberdeen and Edinburgh are the cities set to take the biggest financial hit when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, according to a think tank that predicts a downturn in trade even if ministers strike a “soft Brexit” deal. A new report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said all cities would see a fall in output due to increasing trade costs. Cities such as London, Aberdeen and Edinburgh voted against Brexit in last June’s referendum, the report pointed out.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Newburgh Gazette (Illinois, USA) - Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Energy Voice

Brexit's impact on Aberdeen ‘not as bad as thought', minister says

The impact of Brexit on Aberdeen’s economy will not be as bad as predicted, according to junior Brexit minister Robin Walker. Mr Walker was responding to a bombshell report from the Centre for Cities, whose analysis showed the Granite City’s economy would take the hardest hit in the UK from leaving the EU. The Conservative will visit Aberdeen today to meet oil and gas bosses as well as fishermen and listen to their views on negotiations with the EU.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Energy Voice - Brexit's impact on Aberdeen ‘not as bad as thought', minister says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The National (Scotland)

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp: Scotland WILL bear the brunt of Brexit recession

…Evidence again that any form of Brexit will do more damage to Scotland’s farming sector than it will to the UK as a whole. At least the city economies will be OK though? Not a chance. The report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, has predicted Aberdeen to suffer the most economic damage of all UK cities from Brexit and placed Edinburgh 6th on the hit list.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The National (Scotland) - Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp: Scotland WILL bear the brunt of Brexit recession

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aberdeen Evening Express

Aberdeen's politicians and businesses remain upbeat despite prediction City will suffer most from Brexit

Aberdeen can rise to the challenge of finding news ways to boost the economy, politicians and industry leaders said today. The confident comments come despite a report yesterday that predicts Brexit will hit Aberdeen’s economy the hardest of any UK city. Written by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School Economics, the report predicts Aberdeen’s economic output will shrink by up to 3.7%. Centre for Cities chief executive Andrew Carter said: “The challenge for Aberdeen will be to diversify its industrial structure in the years ahead, so that it is less reliant on one sector (oil and gas). “This will be crucial for the city to thrive after we leave the EU.” Aberdeen City Council leader, Cllr Jenny Laing, admitted there were “huge challenges” ahead, but said positive strides are being taken.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Aberdeen Evening Express - Aberdeen's politicians and businesses remain upbeat despite prediction City will suffer most from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Shropshire Star

Telford less likely to be hit by hard Brexit than other UK towns and cities

Telford will be among the UK towns least-affected by a hard Brexit, a report claims – although economists today denied its suggestion that a lack of skills in the town will cushion the blow.

Researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics published the report into the effect of Brexit on local economies.

In it, the think tank claims areas with greater skills bases will also be those that are hit the hardest by withdrawing from access to the European single market.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Shropshire Star - Telford less likely to be hit by hard Brexit than other UK towns and cities

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Chronicle Live

All areas of North East will be hit by Brexit, new study shows

All areas of the North East would be hit by Brexit and may take longer to recover than other parts of the country, a new study says. The study by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics predicts that economic output in the North East would be between 1.1% and 1.4% lower in the event of a “soft” brexit , but this would almost double to 2%-2.6% if the Government opts for a “hard” Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Chronicle Live - All areas of North East will be hit by Brexit, new study shows

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

The 6 UK cities that will suffer most from a ‘hard' Brexit

Wealthy Southern cities are predicted to be hardest hit by Brexit, according to a new report. The study, by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, found that cities with large high-skilled service sectors, such as business and financial services, are expected to be worst hit by potential tariff changes.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - The 6 UK cities that will suffer most from a ‘hard' Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Blackpool Gazette

Resort named in Brexit hit list

A think tank analysed the potential impact of both a “hard” and “soft” Brexit on British cities in the 10 years following the implementation of new trade arrangements with the EU. It is the most prosperous UK cities which will be hit hardest by the downturn ahead, but poorer places across the North and Midlands will find it tougher to adapt.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Blackpool Gazette - Resort named in Brexit hit list

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald (Scotland)

Scottish cities to pay highest price for Brexit


Related Links:
The Herald (Scotland) - Scottish cities to pay highest price for Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yorkshire Evening Post

'Leeds could be among hardest-hit by Brexit'


Related Links:
Yorkshire Evening Post - 'Leeds could be among hardest-hit by Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Public Sector Executive

Economy and infrastructure

All cities in the UK are looking set to see a fall in economic output regardless of whether a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit is delivered, experts have today warned – but more prosperous regions will be hit harder than others. In findings released by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the potential impact of either Brexit ‘type’ on major cities in the UK was analysed for the first time.


Related Links:
Public Sector Executive - Economy and infrastructure

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

STV online

News: Aberdeen ‘will be UK city worst hit by hard Brexit'

London and Edinburgh also ranked in the top ten list compiled by researchers at the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
STV online - News: Aberdeen ‘will be UK city worst hit by hard Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Insider.co.uk

Aberdeen ‘worst affected city in UK if there's a hard Brexit'

Centre for Cities and Centre for Economic Performance analysis also places Edinburgh sixth in a top ten of urban conurbations hit most if the country fails to strike a deal with the EU.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Insider.co.uk - Aberdeen ‘worst affected city in UK if there's a hard Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

International Business Times

Revealed: the cities Brexit will hit hardest

Aberdeen will be the hardest hit city in the UK by Brexit, according to a new report on the economic impact of withdrawal from the European Union (EU). Other cities or urban areas such as London, Slough and Edinburgh are in the top ten of a list compiled by researchers at the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
International Business Times - Revealed: the cities Brexit will hit hardest

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Planner

Brexit will hit southern UK cities hardest – report

Cities that are successful and have large high-skilled service sectors, mainly located in the south of England, will be hit the hardest by Brexit, whether it is ‘hard’ or ‘soft’. A report by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics (LSE) also says these cities are better placed to adapt to the economic shocks ahead compared with less affluent places that are less directly affected by Brexit. The report considers the impact both a soft and hard Brexit might have on British cities in the 10 years following new trade arrangements with the EU being implemented. Researchers say a hard Brexit would bring an average reduction of 2.3 per cent in economic input across all UK cities compared with a soft Brexit, which would result in a 1.2 per cent decrease. Whether the UK gets a hard or soft Brexit, the report suggests, cities that are doing economically well – predominantly in the south of England – would be hit the most directly and the hardest.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Planner - Brexit will hit southern UK cities hardest – report

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aberdeen Evening Express

Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

A new report today named Aberdeen as the UK city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit. London and Edinburgh also ranked in the top 10 list compiled by researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics. They analysed the potential impact of both a “hard” and “soft” Brexit on British cities in the 10 years following the implementation of new trade deals with the EU.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Aberdeen Evening Express - Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Commonspace

Brexit will hit Aberdeen harder than any other city in UK, report says

Research done by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics and the Centre for Cities predicted an economic downturn of 3.7 per cent for Aberdeen and 2.7 per cent in Edinburgh in the event of a hard Brexit. For a soft Brexit, the report expects the drop off to be 2.1 per cent for Aberdeen and 1.4 per cent in Edinburgh.

 

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Commonspace - Brexit will hit Aberdeen harder than any other city in UK, report says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bristol Post

Bristol to be one of the UK's cities worst hit by Brexit

The joint Centre for Cities and Centre for Economic Performance study predicts that Bristol’s economic output will decrease by up to 2.6 per cent – the 11th worst-hit city in the country. However, the report also states that Bristol will be well equipped to weather the downturn, due to its skilled and adaptable workforce. Published today, the report compares the fall in economic output of 63 cities across the UK depending on whether central government opts for a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Bristol Post - Bristol to be one of the UK's cities worst hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Politics

Here are the places in the UK that will be hit hardest by Brexit

Brexit will hit Scottish oil capital Aberdeen the hardest of all Britain’s cities, with London also ranking highly and facing a medium-term blow to economic output of as much as 2.6 percent, academics at the London School of Economics said. The researchers estimated that output in U.K. cities -- using a measure called gross value added -- will decline 2.3 percent on average, assuming a hard Brexit in which Britain trades with the European Union under World Trade Organization rules and tariffs. The drop under a soft Brexit, with a negotiated zero-tariff free-trade area but an increase in border controls and customs checks, was projected to be 1.2 percent lower.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Bloomberg Politics - Here are the places in the UK that will be hit hardest by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog

CEP study: the UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (working with the Centre for Cities think tank) has carried out a study shedding light upon the local economic impact of Brexit. Henry G. Overman writes that it is the richer cities, predominantly in the south of England, that will be hit hardest by Brexit, with this effect particularly apparent in areas specialised in services.

Our research (with Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin) looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a ‘soft’ and a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities, and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog - CEP study: the UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Wiltshire

(06:01:57)

Snippet: News that Swindon could be one of the cities worst hit by Brexit
Click to open

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

RES (Royal Economic Society) Newsletter

Conference Report 2017 'Divided we fall'

Perhaps the public knew that Brexit would drain their wallets, but voted for it anyway. Sometimes it’s not the economy, stupid. But Simon Wren-Lewis, of Oxford University, rubbished this idea, pointing out that those who voted for Brexit said they were unwilling to pay to reduce immigration. Instead, people seemed misinformed. Not only did those who voted to leave the EU think that they would be no worse off as a result, they thought that lower immigration would improve their access to public services. The problem, Mr Wren-Lewis argued, was with the media. Dismissing a large fraction as producers of propoganda, he reserved most disappointment for the BBC. It failed to communicate the consensus among economists, he said, treating it as opinion rather than knowledge. Swati Dhingra, of the London School of Economics, agreed, saying that the BBC’s quest to generate balance gave the false impression that there was a meaningful debate between economists. (Depressingly, she noted that this false balance had oozed into policymaking, as select committees are being stacked with pro-Brexit voices.)

Breakfast means breakfast

Amid the pastries, the presentations and the self-flagellation, it might have been easy to forget what the point of it all. An article in The Independent, previewing the conference, and highlighted by Paul Johnson on the first day of the conference, provided a helpful reminder. ‘Economics research can really improve people’s lives’, wrote Hamish McRae. While the public associates economics with GDP and abstract equations, much of the research presented at the conference was focused on how to make people’s lives better. Examples I saw included a paper presented by Christine Farquharson of the IFS, which suggested that free school breakfasts are a cheap way to help children do better in school. A panel discussion on re-skilling the UK between Steve Machin, Kirabo Jackson, Richard Burgess and Sandra McNally tossed around tax credits for investment in skills and training, a plea for more thinking about teacher quality, and from Kirabo Jackson, to think about the education system as a whole, rather than separate, substitutable stages. Football scheduling was on the list too: boys perform worse in exams when they coincide with international football tournaments.


Related Links:
RES (Royal Economic Society) Newsletter - Conference Report 2017 'Divided we fall'

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Scottish Sun

BREX HIT New report names Aberdeen as UK city predicted to be worst-hit by so-called hard Brexit

A NEW report has named Aberdeen as the UK city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit. Edinburgh also ranked in the top 10 list compiled by researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Scottish Sun - BREX HIT New report names Aberdeen as UK city predicted to be worst-hit by so-called hard Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

i paper

New study finds towns in South hit worst after Brexit

Towns and cities in the South of England will be hit hardest by Britain’s exit from Europe, according to a study that overturns assumptions that poorer areas of the UK will suffer the most. Researchers at the Centre for Cities think-tank and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics found that all British cities are set to see a drop in economic output, regardless of whether the Brexit deal is “hard” or “soft”, because of the predicted rise in the costs of trade.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
i paper - New study finds towns in South hit worst after Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times (Scotland)

Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

Aberdeen and Edinburgh are the cities set to take the biggest financial hit when the UK leaves the European Union, according to a think tank that predicts a downturn in trade even if ministers strike a “soft Brexit” deal.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Times (Scotland) - Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

SERC blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

Article by Henry Overman

I've been working with colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) and the Centre for Cities (Naomi Clayton) to take a first look at the local economic impacts of Brexit. You can read the more technical CEP piece here and the less technical CfC piece here. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017.

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
SERC blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Aberdeen ‘worst hit' by hard Brexit, experts predict

Aberdeen could be the city worst hit by falling economic output due to a "hard" Brexit, experts have predicted.

A new report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said all cities would see a fall in output due to increasing trade costs. Aberdeen and Edinburgh were both ranked among the ten most affected cities. However the study said both cities are also among the best-placed to respond to any predicted economic turbulence.


Related Links:
BBC News - Aberdeen ‘worst hit' by hard Brexit, experts predict

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

The three things businesses need to survive Brexit

While the Prime Minister seems to understand that trade with the European Union is sizeable, she also seems to be under the illusion that Britain can pick and choose during the Brexit negotiations. Let’s keep trade but stop immigration, payments to Brussels, and oversight from the European Court of Justice. This option won’t be available. The reality is that Britain faces a trade-off. More distance from the EU means bigger income loss. The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics estimates that a hard Brexit, i.e. falling back on World Trade Organization terms, will cut trade by 40% over 10 years. For the average household earning around £23,000, this translates into £600 less per year. The softest version of Brexit, i.e. the Norwegian model, still reduces trade by 20-25%, and household income by £300.

Related publications

‘The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.02, March 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

 


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - The three things businesses need to survive Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC2 TV

Victoria Derbyshire Show [around 10:30am]

Dennis Novy was live on the show.  The topic was the ongoing Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU in Brussels, and in particular what the potential outcome might be for Britain’s economy and international trade. The fellow panelists were Nigel Evans MP and James McGrory, Executive Director of Open Britain.


Related Links:
BBC2 TV - Victoria Derbyshire Show [around 10:30am]

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial

Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

The consequences of the UK failing to reach a deal with the EU will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive”, according to a new report featuring LSE experts.

Related publications

‘The Cost of No Deal’  The UK in a Changing Europe http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cost-of-No-Deal-The-UK-in-a-Changing-Europe.pdf

CEP Election Analysis: Brexit and the UK Economy, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson . May 2017 .Paper No' CEPEA040 http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
The Financial - Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

‘People may be overpaying for lease extensions says LSE research'

Dr Ted Pinchbeck, a Fellow in Real Estate Economics and Finance at LSE and one of the authors of the research, said: “Prices of leaseholds of different lengths provide direct new evidence on how people discount the very far future. Our results support the use of a time-declining discount rate, which is used for policy evaluation here in the UK, but not everywhere in the world. This kind of discount rate implies that people are actually willing to pay more or take action now to improve things in the distant future.

Related publications

‘The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates,’ Economic Journal     Philippe Bracke, Edward W. Pinchbeck, James Wyatt. A copy of this paper is available from the LSE press office.


Related Links:
LSE News - ‘People may be overpaying for lease extensions says LSE research'

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Edward Pinchbeck webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Leasehold homeowners are ‘overpaying to extend' leases

Homeowners living in leasehold properties are being asked to pay extortionate prices to extend the leases on their homes. That’s the conclusion of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), which has analysed data from 8,000 sales of leasehold properties showing how the sale price varied depending on how much time was left on the lease.

Related publications

‘The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates,’ Economic Journal. Philippe Bracke, Edward W. Pinchbeck, James Wyatt. A copy of this paper is available from the LSE press office.


Related Links:
Independent - Leasehold homeowners are ‘overpaying to extend' leases

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Edward Pinchbeck webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

The consequences of the UK failing to reach a deal with the EU will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive”, according to a new report featuring LSE experts.

                   Related publications

‘The Cost of No Deal’  The UK in a Changing Europe http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cost-of-No-Deal-The-UK-in-a-Changing-Europe.pdf


Related Links:
LSE News - Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

The six flavours of Brexit

Brexiteers rejected the Treasury’s projections for the cost of Brexit last year as “project fear”. But the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has remodelled the trade consequences…..

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: Brexit and the UK Economy, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson . May 2017 .Paper No' CEPEA040 http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
The Economist - The six flavours of Brexit

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog

Five important questions the UK government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

Article by Thomas Sampson: The most welcome aspect of the government’s policy paper on future customs arrangements is its acknowledgement of the desirability of a transition agreement after the UK leaves the EU. A transition deal will avoid the risks of a cliff-edge Brexit in March 2019 and give the two sides time to negotiate a new trade agreement. The paper suggests the transition agreement could involve a “continued close association with the EU Customs Union for a time-limited period … based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties”. In effect, it proposes that the UK remains in the Customs Union, although this is never explicitly stated.


Related Links:
LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog - Five important questions the UK government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

Five important questions the government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

The government’s recent paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.


Related Links:
LSE British Politics and Policy blog - Five important questions the government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 17/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

What next for US-Europe trade policy?

Article by Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

The economies of Europe and the United States are inextricably linked and in an ideal world, a number of factors motivate a trade deal such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU eBook, argues, however, that given the Brexit referendum in the UK and the election of Donald Trump as US president, as well as a number of other pre-existing complications, achieving such agreements will be highly contentious.

Related publications

What next for US-Europe trade policy?’, Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra. A chapter in the Vox eBook, Economics and policy in the Age of Trump, available to download here: http://voxeu.org/content/economics-and-policy-age-trump


Related Links:
Vox - What next for US-Europe trade policy?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 16/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Harvard Business Review

A study of 16 countries shows that the most productive firms (and their employees) are pulling away from everyone else

Article by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo

The corporate landscape has become increasingly unequal, with the most productive firms thriving and the least productive ones failing to keep up. This matters not just for economic growth but also for inequality: Our research shows that as they grow apart in productivity, firms are also becoming more unequal in how much they pay workers.

Related publications

The great divergence(s) Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay, Chiara Criscuolo.

12 May 2017. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/the-great-divergence-s_953f3853-en


Related Links:
Harvard Business Review - A study of 16 countries shows that the most productive firms (and their employees) are pulling away from everyone else

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage


News Posted: 13/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Hellenic News

Business casts doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the U.K. on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the U.K. is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”


Related Links:
Hellenic News - Business casts doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 12/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Emirates-Business.ae

Businesses cast doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the UK on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the UK is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”


Related Links:
Emirates-Business.ae - Businesses cast doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg (USA)

Post-Brexit UK trade deal with Trump in easier said than done

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the U.K. on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the U.K. is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”

Also in: Las Cruces Sun-News (New Mexico) Post-Brexit UK trade deal with Trump in easier said than done


Related Links:
Bloomberg (USA) - Post-Brexit UK trade deal with Trump in easier said than done

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo!Finance

Post-Brexit U.K. trade deal with Trump is easier said than done

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the U.K. on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the U.K. is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”


Related Links:
Yahoo!Finance - Post-Brexit U.K. trade deal with Trump is easier said than done

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?

In the July episode of the #LSEIQ podcast we ask, ‘What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?’ One year on from the European Referendum, this demographic has been scrutinised for their role in the Leave vote. But were they really responsible for the 51.9 per cent vote to ‘Brexit’? If so, why did they vote that way? Helping to tackle the question are Dr Justin Gest co director of LSE’s Migration Studies Unit and Assistant Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University; Dr Lisa McKenzie, Fellow in LSE’s Department of Sociology, and; Dr Dennis Novy, an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and an Associate at the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE.

Related podcast

LSE IQ Episode 4: What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?

Contributors: Justin Gest, Lisa McKenzie and Dennis Novy

http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/LSEIQ/player.aspx?id=3849


Related Links:
LSE News - What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 05/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

The growing inequality between firms

Globalisation, technological progress and a range of policies and institutions are driving ‘Great Divergences’ in wages and productivity, write Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo...

Related publications

The great divergence(s) Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay, Chiara Criscuolo.

12 May 2017. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/the-great-divergence-s_953f3853-en


Related Links:
LSE Business Review - The growing inequality between firms

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage


News Posted: 05/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe

EU referendum: one year on - UK economic policy

Article by Dr Swati Dhingra

What form of relationship to have with the EU after Brexit is the key economic policy issue facing the UK. This election was meant to give the prime minister a strong mandate for a “hard Brexit”. The Conservative Party and the DUP, whose support will be necessary to allow Theresa May to continue as prime minister, agree on the main elements of UK’s future economic relationship with the EU.

Read the full report here.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe - EU referendum: one year on - UK economic policy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 28/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a changing Europe (Kings College London)

EU referendum: one year on - trade and the single market

Article by Thomas Sampson

One year ago, the UK voted to leave the EU. However, voters did not choose what would come after Brexit.

Options for “life after Brexit”:  One option is to remain in the Single Market and preserve the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour with the EU. Another is to negotiate a bespoke trade agreement with the EU that keeps trade barriers as low as possible while ending labour mobility and giving the UK greater control over economic regulation. Finally, if no deal is reached, the UK and EU would trade under World Trade Organization (WTO) terms. This means the UK would have much the same economic relations with the EU as with non-EU countries such as the US or Japan. It would lead to tariffs on goods trade and reduced market access for service exporters. Each of these alternatives was endorsed by different factions of the Leave campaign prior to the referendum. Asking voters what they prefer does not resolve the conundrum: opinion polls show support for maintaining the benefits of Single Market membership. Yet polls also find support for taking back control by restricting immigration and removing the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) (though see the section on public opinion).


Related Links:
The UK in a changing Europe (Kings College London) - EU referendum: one year on - trade and the single market

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 28/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

The Bank of England is preparing for the absolute worst case Brexit scenario

Under May's argument, Britain would drop out of the EU, immediately reverting to unfavourable WTO trade terms, if the country's negotiators failed to get an agreement seen as having favourable terms for the UK. May has widely been criticised for this approach, with a report from the London School of Economics earlier in June saying that failure to strike a deal with the European Union on trade during Brexit talks will lower income per household by at least £1,890 a year.

Related publications

‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No.40, 

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - The Bank of England is preparing for the absolute worst case Brexit scenario

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

UOL Economia

Empresas enfrentam Brexit com ‘espirito de buldogue'/Companies face Brexit with ‘bulldog spirit'

"It's not a catastrophic madness, but the pound fell, investments decreased and inflation reached the highest rate in four years," said Swati Dhingra, economist at the Center for Economic Performance in London. "But I totally disagree with the idea that we err - the overwhelming consensus is that Brexit will be nesting in the long term."


Related Links:
UOL Economia - Empresas enfrentam Brexit com ‘espirito de buldogue'/Companies face Brexit with ‘bulldog spirit'

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg news

Brexit one year on: keep calm and hedge the pound

‘It’s not crazy catastrophic stuff, but the pound has fallen, investment is down, and inflation is up to a four-year high,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the Center for Economic Performance in London.  “But I totally disagree with the idea that we got it wrong – the overwhelming consensus is that Brexit will be damaging over the long term.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg news - Brexit one year on: keep calm and hedge the pound

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald

Choppy year could be calm before Brexit storm

Swati Dhingra, of the LSE, said: “There is near consensus among economists that the hard – or chaotic – form of Brexit…would hurt the UK economy. Although there was little immediate economic fallout from the Brexit vote, in the first quarter of this year UK economic growth was the slowest of any EU economy. … Mrs May insists “no deal is better than a bad deal” — but no deal could spell “chaos”, economists said. Thomas Sampson, of the London School of Economics (LSE), said: “Progress will require the UK to make concessions. Possible concessions include making payments to the EU budget, agreeing EU regulations will continue to apply in some industries, and guaranteeing immigration rights for EU citizens offered a job in the UK. “The UK has a weaker negotiating position than the EU, so even with these concessions it is unlikely to achieve all its objectives. “But refusing to compromise will guarantee failure. “Research estimates that leaving the EU without a deal could reduce UK income per capita by up to 10 per cent in the worst-case scenario.”

Related publications

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.1, February 2016

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.9, October 2016


Related Links:
The Herald - Choppy year could be calm before Brexit storm

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

South China Morning Post

On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

High-speed rail has triggered a wave of innovation , according to a London School of Economics and Political Science discussion paper by Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan, which describes a 20 per cent increase in patent applications after 2004, when high-speed technology from Europe began.

 

Related publications

'High-speed rail in China', Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp484.pdf


Related Links:
South China Morning Post - On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

CEP Trade


News Posted: 21/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald

Herald View: Holyrood's role means hard Brexit is dead and buried

But the greatest potential trouble is on Brexit, with the constitutional uncertainty growing and economists laying out this week just what a hard or chaotic Brexit could mean for the economy: the pound dropping even further, falling wages and more businesses leaving the UK. And yet the Government still appears to believe that no deal is an option even though the London School of Economics suggests that leaving the EU without one could reduce UK income per capita by up to 10 per cent.

Related publications

‘BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance’, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance Brexit Analysis Paper No.8, June 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit08_book.pdf


Related Links:
The Herald - Herald View: Holyrood's role means hard Brexit is dead and buried

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 21/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

South China Morning Post

On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

High-speed rail has triggered a wave of innovation , according to a London School of Economics and Political Science discussion paper by Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan, which describes a 20 per cent increase in patent applications after 2004, when high-speed technology from Europe began.

Related publications

'High-speed rail in China', Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp484.pdf


Related Links:
South China Morning Post - On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

CEP Trade


News Posted: 21/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Eurasia Review

Will Brexit lead to financial big bang for EU-27? - Analysis

Many commentators are throwing out numbers about the negative impact of Brexit on GDP growth and income across Europe. The Center for Economic Performance has concluded that every EU member will lose income after Brexit, but that the loss for the UK will be about twice the loss for the remaining 27 members combined.

Related publications

‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.2, March 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf


Related Links:
Eurasia Review - Will Brexit lead to financial big bang for EU-27? - Analysis

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 20/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Will Brexit Lead to a Financial Big Bang for the EU-27?

Many commentators are throwing out numbers about the negative impact of Brexit on GDP growth and income across Europe. The Center for Economic Performance has concluded that every EU member will lose income after Brexit, but that the loss for the UK will be about twice the loss for the remaining 27 members combined. However, a lot depends (as ever when economics is involved) on what data you look at, as well as on what deals and Euro-fudge the politicians come up with in the coming months.

Also in

Eurasiareview.com http://www.eurasiareview.com/20062017-will-brexit-lead-to-financial-big-bang-for-eu-27-analysis/

Related publications
'The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards',
Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2. March 2016.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 


Related Links:
Foreign Policy Research Institute - Will Brexit Lead to a Financial Big Bang for the EU-27?

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

John Van reenen webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP reports

‘EU referendum: One year on'. Report from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Political Studies Association, June 2017

‘EU referendum: One year on’. Report from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Political Studies Association, June 2017

Articles within the report:

‘Trade and the Single Market’, Thomas Sampson, EU referendum: One year on, pp.32-33

‘UK economic policy’, Swati Dhingra, EU referendum: One year on, pp.36-37


Related Links:
CEP reports - ‘EU referendum: One year on'. Report from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Political Studies Association, June 2017

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 16/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business 2 Community

Why Are Monopolies Bad? An Analysis of 6 Rise-and-Fall Companies

According to Professor Jeremiah Dittmar of the London School of Economics, writing in 2011, European cities which adopted the printing press experienced 60% higher economic growth than those which didn’t buy into the technology from 1450 to 1600. Ironically, in the context of this article, the printing press itself was monopolistic as the knowledge of materials was quasi-proprietary:

Related publications

‘Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of The Printing Press’, Jeremiah Dittmar, The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2011) 126 (3): 1133-1172

http://bit.ly/2rv5Ks0

 

Related article

‘Information technology and economic change: the impact of the printing press’, Jeremiah Dittmar, Vox article, 11 February 2011

http://voxeu.org/article/information-technology-and-economic-change-impact-printing-press


Related Links:
Business 2 Community - Why Are Monopolies Bad? An Analysis of 6 Rise-and-Fall Companies

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Jeremiah Dittmar webpage


News Posted: 14/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Express (India)

UK election result 2017: With Theresa May dependent on DUP, Brexit negotiations become more difficult

But this election turned out to be much more than Brexit. “Economics is as much about humanity as policy”. Professor Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, in her article Salvaging Brexit, had written about the “long years of economic neglect”, leading to the disaffection and disillusion of large swathes of the UK population. Successful Brexit negotiations or not, by the time of the vote, the sustained cuts in healthcare, education and other social sectors – in real terms – had assumed larger dimensions.

Related article

‘Salvaging Brexit: The right way to leave the EU’. Article by Swati Dhingra, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2016 issue

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/salvaging-brexit


Related Links:
Financial Express (India) - UK election result 2017: With Theresa May dependent on DUP, Brexit negotiations become more difficult

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

What does a hung parliament mean for Brexit and the economy?

Snippet: ...ana. “Without a strong mandate, Europe can ignore the UK’s demands. Even the UK’s threat to pull out of negotiations will now appear hollow and lacking the support of the British public.” But Dr Thomas Sampson, from the London School of Economics and an expert on Brexit…


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - What does a hung parliament mean for Brexit and the economy?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 09/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Frankfurter Rundschau (Germany)

Die schlechteste Variante

A year ago, in June 2016, the British voted on their country's EU membership. Economists and financial markets were in bright turmoil and warned of the consequences of a Brexit. Today, twelve months later, the markets are no longer afraid of the Brexit. They fear for him. Only two years are left to the EU and the United Kingdom to agree on the conditions of the withdrawal. And with each passing day there is a growing likelihood that the horror scenario will occur: there is no agreement, no deal--"for the British economy, this would be the worst of all results," warns the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP).

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam (Eds), CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

Related links

Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

                                         


Related Links:
Frankfurter Rundschau (Germany) - Die schlechteste Variante

CEP Education and Skills CEP Growth CEP Trade

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 08/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Manifesto economics

For the first time in years, UK voters have a real choice between economic models

The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has published a series of election analyses, looking at wages and living standards, health and social care, education and skills, and inequality between UK regions.

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

 

Related links

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

 


Related Links:
Financial Times - Manifesto economics

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a changing Europe

The manifestos uncovered: trade

Article by Swati Dhingra

Unlike some other countries – the US and France spring to mind – trade has not been a major issue in recent UK elections. This reflected both EU membership and a broad political consensus that, within the EU, the UK should argue for a relatively liberal approach. Brexit, however, will mean the most fundamental reorientation of UK trade policy in forty years, so it not surprising that it is much more prominent in manifestos for this election. The Liberal Democrats would stay in the single market and the customs union. Free movement of goods, services, capital and people would continue, and trade policy would still be set at the EU level. The loss of market access that would follow from leaving the EU would be minimized. Labour are less specific, to the point of inconsistency – they retain the option of being in the single market and the customs union, but also say that Brexit will mean an end to free movement, which is inconsistent with single market membership. The Conservatives’ plans are rather more detailed. Immigration controls are central to their Brexit plan, which means that we will leave the single market, while the aspiration to do new trade deals with countries outside the EU means leaving the customs union. Together, this means a “hard Brexit”. If there is no new deal with the EU after the two-year period – the hardest possible Brexit – the UK would revert to World Trade Organization rules.

Related publications

‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson,  CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No.40, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

‘The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards’,  CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco  Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards’,  Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and  John Van Reenen, CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016


Related Links:
The UK in a changing Europe - The manifestos uncovered: trade

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Socialist Worker

Migrant works say – ‘Don't blame us for low pay'

The London School of Economics’ (LSE) Centre for Economic Performance last year found that “the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers.”

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf


Related Links:
Socialist Worker - Migrant works say – ‘Don't blame us for low pay'

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Advertiser (Adelaide, Australia)

John Newton: Labour set to remain tarnished an divided while newly enthroned May will be mistress of all she surveys

Mrs May still seems to suggest that immigration should be kept under 100,000 a year while being just about the only person in the country who thinks that number should include students. Damage to university numbers is inevitable. Student admission rates are already lower this year. Her incapacity to deliver on such a KPI when Home Secretary adds the accusation of incompetence to that of pigheadedness. And is this a wise policy anyway? Recent research suggests that hitting a target of 100,000 will mean a fiscal deficit 30 per cent higher by 2066. Immigrants are regularly proven to add value and are not the burden on the state that many believe them to be. A recent report from the Centre for Economic Performance correlates the drop in immigrant numbers to falls, not rises, in living standards.

 

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf


Related Links:
The Advertiser (Adelaide, Australia) - John Newton: Labour set to remain tarnished an divided while newly enthroned May will be mistress of all she surveys

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economic Policy Digest – June 2017

Education and deprivation explain the Brexit vote better than immigration

Demography and education are a much better explanation of the ‘Leave’ vote in the June 2016 Brexit referendum than the decline in public services or recent immigration. These are the conclusions of Sascha O. Becker, Thiemo Fetzer and Dennis Novy in their paper Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis. … It might be assumed that the 48% of people who voted to remain in the EU last June, and many of the 52% who voted to Leave, would prefer a ‘soft Brexit’ instead.  In this case the UK would follow the example of a country like Norway, which is outside the EU but inside the Single Market. If they got their wish, this would halve the fall in income to about 1.3%. But whether Brexit is hard or soft, Britain will be worse off. The authors of the paper – Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, João Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen – from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, and MIT, found that for both extreme versions of Brexit, as well as many in between cases that they costed, reductions in budget payment to Brussels will be easily outweighed by the costs of reduced trade with the EU, which accounts for about half of all British trade.


Related Links:
Economic Policy Digest – June 2017 - Education and deprivation explain the Brexit vote better than immigration

Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thiemo Fetzer webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Economics and policy in the age of Trump

This collection of 18 essays by leading economists highlights many of the most pressing domestic and international economic policy issues on the Trump docket.  Many chapters are sharply critical of the Trump administration’s new approach.

Part III: International Policy Reform: Trade policy and trade agreements

18 What next for US-Europe trade policy?

Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

 

Related publications : ‘What next for US-Europe trade policy?’, Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra, Economics and Policy in the Age of Trump, Chad Brown (Editor), e-book by VoxEU, June 2017


Related Links:
Vox - Economics and policy in the age of Trump

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

Sovereign wealth funds are shunning British investments after Brexit

The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said that returning to World Trade Organization rules would reduce the UK's trade with the EU by 40% over 10 years.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - Sovereign wealth funds are shunning British investments after Brexit

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Cinquantamila.it

Londra vota Brexit. Morbida o estrema saremo comunque più poveri

Brexit In fact is a trauma that breaks the vertical chain of production of the value that ties the United Kingdom to the EU, with consequences not apparent immediately. Quantifying these costs is therefore a difficult exercise, but we have tried S. Dhingra, H. Huang, G. Ottaviano, J.P. Pessoa, T. Sampson and J. Van Reenen in the article "the costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade Effects", forthcoming in the magazine. … The British voters who chose leave, contrary to appearances, seem to know that their problem is not immigration. The analysis of the vote at the last June referendum by S. Becker, T. Fetzer and D. Novy in the article "who voted for Brexit: a comprehensive district-level analysis" (also being published in the economic policy), confirms this conclusion.


Related Links:
Cinquantamila.it - Londra vota Brexit. Morbida o estrema saremo comunque più poveri

Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thiemo Fetzer webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Election uncertainties to be followed by many more

The election uncertainty will give way to new uncertainties. Two new reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics highlight some of the dangers. On immigration, the CEP concludes that cutting it significantly will result in a lowering of living standards for the UK-born population, with the extent of the fall depending on the extent of the drop in net migration. The May target of “tens of thousands” will leave us all poorer. The report, on the CEP website, is a good mythbuster. Areas of high EU immigration have not seen UK-born workers displaced or suffered from weaker wage growth. The route to reduced living standards is partly via the fact that migrant workers pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and use of public services. The CEP’s other report looks at something that really worries businesses — the prime minister’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” rhetoric. CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, using what they describe as a state-of-the-art trade model based on comprehensive data, say that leaving the EU without a deal would result in a 40% drop in exports to the EU over 10 years and a 3% fall in GDP per capita. Add in dynamic effects and the medium-term economic effects could be double those arising from the model, the authors say.


Related Links:
The Times - Election uncertainties to be followed by many more

Brexit and the UK Economy

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 04/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Chronicle

The North should become a ‘free trade zone' to create jobs and bring in cash, think tank says

The need to give the North a boost was highlighted by a new study by the Centre for Economic Performance, part of the London School of Economics, which said the Government’s Northern Powerhouse project had produced uneven results, with Manchester benefitting more than other parts of the North. Professor Henry Overman, co-author of the report, said: “The manifestos of the main parties the 2017 election campaign reflect the continuing urge that politicians feel to try to do something about the UK’s regional divide without any real understanding of what drives the differences in performance or what policies might be effective.”


Related Links:
Evening Chronicle - The North should become a ‘free trade zone' to create jobs and bring in cash, think tank says

The UK's Regional Divide: Can Policy Make a Difference

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Britain's election offers little respite for its woes

Most independent experts predict long-term harm as well. According to the most recent estimates from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, a hard Brexit would reduce GDP per head by 2.6% over ten years, while a softer Swiss- or Norwegian-style Brexit would cut it by 1.3%...

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/


Related Links:
The Economist - Britain's election offers little respite for its woes

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 03/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Brexit has already started to make UK citizens poorer

Leaving the European Union with no deal in place for future trading arrangements would be the worst-case Brexit scenario for the UK economy. What’s more, just because GDP growth has not declined since last year’s referendum, it would be wrong to think that Brexit is yet to have any economic effects: it has already lowered UK living standards by causing the value of the pound to decline, which has led to higher inflation and lower real wage growth. These are among the conclusions of a new report from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) authored by Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Brexit has already started to make UK citizens poorer

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 02/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

ITV News

Theresa May reveals risky migration target timescale

So the prime minister may have to choose between risking the economy (immigrants keep living standards up and the deficit down according to the London School of Economics) or missing her target.


Related Links:
ITV News - Theresa May reveals risky migration target timescale

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

True Viral News

Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

BREXIT has already started to make UK citizens poorer and more pain is likely in the months and years to come, a new study has warned. Although last year’s vote to quit the European Union has had “no obvious effect” on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound – down 13 per cent against the US dollar and nine per cent against the euro by the end of April – has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3 per cent to minus 0.5 per cent, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found.


Related Links:
True Viral News - Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Herald Scotland

Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

Although last year’s vote to quit the European Union has had “no obvious effect” on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound – down 13 per cent against the US dollar and nine per cent against the euro by the end of April – has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3 per cent to minus 0.5 per cent, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found….

Co-author Thomas Sampson said Labour and the Conservatives plans to “take back control” rather than making Brexit work for the UK economy would “inevitably” be bad for living standards…

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Herald Scotland - Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

LSE: Failure to get a Brexit trade deal will cost every household at least £1,890 a year

A report by the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said that returning to World Trade Organization rules would reduce the UK's trade with the EU by 40% over 10 years…Report authors Swati Dinghra and Thomas Sampson write: "While it is a tautology that a sufficiently bad deal must be worse than no-deal, in practice the no-deal outcome, where the UK and EU trade under WTO terms, is the worst-case scenario for the UK economy. The economic costs of Brexit would be twice as large in the no-deal case than if the UK remains in the Single Market."

 


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - LSE: Failure to get a Brexit trade deal will cost every household at least £1,890 a year

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

AOL.UK

UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

Although last year's vote to quit the EU has had "no obvious effect" on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound - down 13% against the US dollar and 9% against the euro by the end of last month - has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5% to 2.7% and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3% to minus-0.5%, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found.


Related Links:
AOL.UK - UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mirror

Theresa May's 'no deal' Brexit would cost each family £1,890, experts warn

Although last year's vote to quit the EU has had "no obvious effect" on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound - down 13% against the US dollar and 9% against the euro by the end of last month - has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5% to 2.7% and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3% to minus-0.5%, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found.

Co-author Thomas Sampson said: "Prime Minister May's decision to leave the single market was not an inevitable consequence of the referendum and will increase the economic costs of Brexit.

Related publications

'Brexit and the UK Economy', Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson, CEP Election Analysis Paper No. 40. May 2017.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

 

 

 


Related Links:
Mirror - Theresa May's 'no deal' Brexit would cost each family £1,890, experts warn

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Germany's declining respect for the UK

Further reading

Brexit and the UK Economy There are many ways to leave and the referendum did not allow voters to choose between them — Brexit does not simply mean Brexit. (LSE Centre for Economic Performance)

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Financial Times - Germany's declining respect for the UK

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

Brexit Bulletin: The Ghost at the Debate

May’s insistence that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is wrong, according to a report by the Centre for Economic Performance….

“In practice the no-deal outcome, where the U.K. and EU trade under WTO terms, is the worst-case scenario for the U.K. economy,” CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson said in the report.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - Brexit Bulletin: The Ghost at the Debate

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

No Brexit Deal ‘Worst-Case Scenario' for U.K. Economy, CEP Says

According to the Centre for Economic Performance, leaving the European Union with no pact in place would have twice the negative economic impact as remaining in the single market. That’s at odds with Prime Minister Theresa May’s repeated assertion that “no deal is better than a bad deal.”

“While it is a tautology that a sufficiently bad deal must be worse than no deal, in practice the no-deal outcome, where the U.K. and EU trade under WTO terms, is the worst-case scenario for the U.K. economy,” CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson said in a report published Wednesday.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - No Brexit Deal ‘Worst-Case Scenario' for U.K. Economy, CEP Says

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Express

UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

Although last year’s vote to quit the EU has had “no obvious effect” on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound – down 13% against the US dollar and 9% against the euro by the end of last month – has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5% to 2.7% and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3% to minus-0.5%, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found…..

Co-author Thomas Sampson said:  ”Prime Minister May’s decision to leave the single market was not an inevitable consequence of the referendum and will increase the economic costs of Brexit.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Evening Express - UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Il Sole 24 Ore

Le bugie di Donald Trump sul commercio / Donald Trump's lies on business

Article by Gianmarco Ottaviano

…at the G7 in Taormina, an extraordinary thesis was presented to the international community. According to the new US presidency, from the liberalization of international trade, the US would not have obtained what they would have to pay.


Related Links:
Il Sole 24 Ore - Le bugie di Donald Trump sul commercio / Donald Trump's lies on business

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 28/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Conversation UK

Cut immigration and the UK's economic prospects will just get worse – here's why

Jonathan Wadsworth and colleagues at the London School of Economics showed convincingly that across UK local authorities from 2008-15, EU immigrants had no statistically significant impact on the real wages of UK-born workers. Neither did it affect the job prospects of low-skilled UK-born workers.

Related publications

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 ‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’ Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen. May 2016.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/


Related Links:
The Conversation UK - Cut immigration and the UK's economic prospects will just get worse – here's why

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Harpers

LWF Day One: The big Brexit debate

Breaking down the cloud of uncertainty brought about by Brexit into manageable bite-sized pieces was the objective of panelists at this afternoon’s London Wine Fair industry briefing. A panel of industry experts from political, economic, legal and business backgrounds framed the general “Brexit debate” hanging over the industry by looking at what can and can’t be predicted, and also by prioritising some of the concerns. One of the issues widely predicted to cause mass headaches following the referendum has been the effect of trade tariffs on producers exporting to the UK. But from an economics point of view, Dr Swati Dhingra from the London School of Economics argued that non-tariff barriers such as foreign investment will have the far bigger impact on GDP. “If we leave the single market and the EU, the impact on tariffs would be between 1% and 3% - probably around 1.5%. But non-tariff barriers, such as a lack of foreign investment, have the much bigger potential to contribute to a reduction of GDP.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
Harpers - LWF Day One: The big Brexit debate

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

VOX

Great Divergences: The growing dispersion of wages and productivity in OECD countries

Article by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo

Some firms pay well while others don’t; and some are highly productive while many aren’t. This column presents new firm-level data on the increasing dispersion of wages and productivity in both the manufacturing and services sectors in 16 OECD countries. Wage inequalities are growing between firms, even those operating in the same sector – and they are linked to growing differences between high and low productivity firms. Both globalisation and technological progress (notably information and communications technologies) influence these outcomes – as do policies and institutions such as minimum wages, employment protection legislation, unions, and processes of wage-setting.

Related links

Giuseppe Berlingieri CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=berlingieri


Related Links:
VOX - Great Divergences: The growing dispersion of wages and productivity in OECD countries

CEP Trade


News Posted: 15/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Only economic study showing benefits of Brexit debunked as 'doubly misleading'

The assumptions of the Economists for Brexit group – now rebranded as Economists for Free Trade - were previously criticised as grossly unrealistic on other grounds, including ignoring the fact that countries tend to do more trade with countries that are geographically closer, by economic modellers from the London School of Economics (LSE).


Related Links:
Independent - Only economic study showing benefits of Brexit debunked as 'doubly misleading'

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/04/2017      [Back to the Top]

US News

Brexit withdrawal pains loom over UK

Europe, not Britain, is seen as having the most leverage going into the talks. "The party with the most to lose has the weakest position," says Dennis Novy, a University of Warwick economist, "and that's the U.K." The EU is Britain's closest and largest trading partner. Forty-four percent of U.K. exports go to the EU, while only 8 to 17 percent of EU exports go to Britain. Novy says failing to reach a trade deal wouldn't completely quash U.K. markets for European goods and services anyway, just shrink them as rising prices dilute demand.


Related Links:
US News - Brexit withdrawal pains loom over UK

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 13/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider (Italy)

Brexit, l'appello della London School of Economics: 'Immigrati fondamentali per l'economia'/Brexit, the appeal of the London School of Economics: 'Immigrants are fundamental to the economy'

Brexit constringerà the United Kingdom to rethink all its economic policies: from the labour market to industrial policy, from immigration to foreign trade. A commitment is certainly not trivial for the Government by Theresa May that still waits for the green light from Parliament to invoke article 50 of the European treaties setting in motion the process that will lead Britain out of the borders of the European Union within the next two years. "For Britain, it is the hardest undertaking by the defeat of Nazism in World War II" admits election campaign manager Dominic Cummings, in support of Brexit. Of course, the outcome of the referendum has undermined even analysts and researchers engaged in studies in support of government policies. As in the case of the London School of economics that in 2013 has created the first "growth commission" a kind of white paper of the economy: "Brexit", so nobody imagined the result pushed the London School has rilancare a second Board for growth, "says Novella Bottini, a consultant for the London Institute.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Business Insider (Italy) - Brexit, l'appello della London School of Economics: 'Immigrati fondamentali per l'economia'/Brexit, the appeal of the London School of Economics: 'Immigrants are fundamental to the economy'

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 12/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Horticulture Week

Dutch TV news Javado and Alton Garden Centre Brexit report airs

Following Brexit, Dutch TV news has followed a consignment of orchids from Holland to Alton Garden Centre and visited last month's Garden Retail Summit.

Dutch TV channel NPO1 (equivalent to BBC1) followed the plant exports to the UK for themselves last week and visited the London School of Economics to get an insight into the impact of Brexit through Dutch/UK trade.  Nikhil Datta, a researcher at the London School of Economics, said the LSE has estimated that Brexit will have a negative effect of 0.75% on the Dutch economy.


Related Links:
Horticulture Week - Dutch TV news Javado and Alton Garden Centre Brexit report airs

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 09/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Republic Online

Specter of no Brexit deal haunts Britain's automakers

Swati Dhingra, an economics lecturer at the London School of Economics, estimated in a study prior to last year’s referendum that Brexit could reduce total U.K. car production by as much as 12 percent.

 

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here


Related Links:
Daily Republic Online - Specter of no Brexit deal haunts Britain's automakers

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 08/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

U.S. News and World Report

Dennis Novy gave an interview to the American news magazine U.S. News and World Report on 07 March 2017

The interview was about the negotiations on international trade between the UK and the EU that will follow once Article 50 has been triggered. In particular, the interview covered the strengths and weaknesses of the UK negotiating position on trade after Brexit, and how European partners might react to British demands.

https://www.usnews.com/ 


Related Links:
U.S. News and World Report - Dennis Novy gave an interview to the American news magazine U.S. News and World Report on 07 March 2017

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 07/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Telegraph

Call for statistics to measure quality of economic growth

National figures on economic growth fail to take into account of regional variations and ignore quality of life, such as the gap in life expectancy between Surrey and the north east of England, the Inclusive Growth Commission warned.

Local productivity, local incomes, the distribution of earnings, pay changes for the lowest paid and levels of regional economic inactivity could all form part of this new inclusive growth metric, said the ICG which is chaired by Stephanie Flanders, JP Morgan’s chief market strategist. The Commission also includes former Rolls-Royce chief executive Sir John Rose and London School of Economics professor Henry Overman.


Related Links:
The Daily Telegraph - Call for statistics to measure quality of economic growth

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Telegraph

How a rise in Britons being their own boss risks a borrowing crisis

Getting the balance right

A recent report by the LSE Growth Commission also warned that a world where everyone is their own boss could lead to less training, with consequences for UK living standards. 

"In the longer term, the gig economy may erode employers' incentives to invest in their workers' skills," it said.

"It is unlikely that short-term workers will receive extensive on-the-job training, and thus in the long run this may have an impact on the make-up of the skill set of the UK workforce."

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
The Telegraph - How a rise in Britons being their own boss risks a borrowing crisis

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 05/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Engagement/In politics

CEP and its research had a broad reach in Parliament during the month of February.

During the passage of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill in the Lords, research on the benefits from immigration at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) was mentioned.

Also, LSE research was picked up during debates on building more homes (Professor Cheshire)

pre-school education: teachers (Dr Jo Blanden, Professor Sandra McNally).

LSE has been particularly involved in the debate on Brexit through its submissions of written evidence in Parliament and academics appearing before select committees. LSE has responded to the Impact of Brexit on Higher Education and the Immigration inquiries.

Swati Dhingra and Professor Niamh Moloney gave their insights on UK Trade Options Beyond 2019

Professor Alan Manning and Philippe Legrain informed the Lords on Brexit and the Labour Market.

Related links

Community Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/Community/default.asp

 

 


Related Links:
CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Education and Skills CEP Trade

Paul Cheshire webpage

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Alan Manning webpage


News Posted: 04/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Buitenland.eenvandaag.nl (Dutch TV)

Wat betekent de Brexit voor de handel met Engeland?/ What does Brexit mean to trade with England?

England, one of our main trading partners is to get out of the EU. The British Prime Minister Theresa May this month officially advised the European Union of the British departure. Dutch entrepreneurs who do a lot of trade with England wait with bated breath the negotiations that will follow. And the question is whether, in particular, the EU wants to be the best deal out there.

What the consequences will be of Brexit for the Dutch and the English economy depends on the deal concluded between the European Union and the United Kingdom says Nikhil Datta, researcher at the London School of Economics. According to him, the damage can be limited if there actually is as little change as possible.


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 04/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Charleston Gazette-Mail (USA)

Steve White: Pipeline projects will create plenty of good jobs

The recent U.S. energy revolution, courtesy of high-tech advancements in hydraulic fracturing, has made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally, lowering costs for energy-intensive industries while increasing output, employment and exports.Those aren’t my conclusions. They come from the London School of Economics and Political Science. “For every two jobs created in direct relation to fracking, this indirect effect adds more than one additional job elsewhere in the economy,” the report says. In fact, manufacturing exports have increased about 10 percent, on average, since the energy boom began


Related Links:
Charleston Gazette-Mail (USA) - Steve White: Pipeline projects will create plenty of good jobs

Fracking: the boost to US manufacturing

Fracking: the boost to US manufacturing

CEP Trade

Frank Pisch webpage


News Posted: 03/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

LSE Growth Commission: invest more in people, not only buildings and machines

The LSE Growth Commission sets out a new blueprint for inclusive and sustainable growth that deals with the challenges facing the UK, old and new. Based on the latest research, analysis and evidence from leading practitioners and scholars, the Commission – drawn from leading business, policy-making and academic figures – outlines the top priorities in four key areas: jobs and skills; industrial strategy; openness and finance and growth.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review - LSE Growth Commission: invest more in people, not only buildings and machines

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 03/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg View

Specter of No Brexit Deal Haunts U.K. Automakers

Swati Dhingra, an economics lecturer at the London School of Economics, estimated in a study prior to last year's referendum that Brexit could reduce total U.K. car production by as much as 12 percent.

Related article

8 June 2016

The UK in a Changing Europe – King’s College London

Brexit and foreign investment: cars and cash

Article by Swati Dhingra

One of the key issues in the referendum campaign has been the extent to which a Brexit would affect the UK’s economy. While much of this discussion has focused on trade, the role of investments in the UK from other EU countries is also important. The UK is a major recipient of investment, with only the United States and China receiving more foreign direct investment (FDI) than the UK. And of this investment in the UK (which has an estimated stock value of over £1 trillion) about half has come from other EU countries.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-and-foreign-investment-cars-and-cash/


Related Links:
Bloomberg View - Specter of No Brexit Deal Haunts U.K. Automakers

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 03/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Carrier Management

Are fears of a Brexit exodus overblown

“Each business lobby is motivated — the worse you can make it sound at this point, the more likely your sector will get special treatment,” said Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. “I don’t know how analytically rigorous a lot of the numbers are. You want to take a lot of these numbers with a grain of salt.”

Related links

Thomas Sampson CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=sampson


Related Links:
Carrier Management - Are fears of a Brexit exodus overblown

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Hard Brexit will ‘open Pandora's box' for UK businesses says CBI president

Economists from the London School of Economics have estimated that the WTO route would cause an almost 10 per cent hit to UK GDP by 2030.

Also in:

The i Paper

Failure to secure trade deal 'would open Pandora's Box'

(no link available)


Related Links:
Independent - Hard Brexit will ‘open Pandora's box' for UK businesses says CBI president

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Staff News

New report from LSE Growth Commission

Last Friday, the LSE Growth Commission released a new report setting out a blueprint for inclusive and sustainable growth in the UK, which deals with both old and new challenges.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
LSE Staff News - New report from LSE Growth Commission

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

The Brexit Bank Exodus Could Be More Like a Trickle

“Each business lobby is motivated -- the worse you can make it sound at this point, the more likely your sector will get special treatment,” said Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. “I don’t know how analytically rigorous a lot of the numbers are. You want to take a lot of these numbers with a grain of salt.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - The Brexit Bank Exodus Could Be More Like a Trickle

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Railway Technology

The importance of China's high-speed tech transfer policy

China is the world leader in the deployment of high-speed rail infrastructure but how much of this is because of the extensive technology transfer deals that were struck with foreign companies during the early days?

“There were ambitions to get everything done pretty quickly,” says Yatang Lin, a researcher from the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance. “Of course, there were political motives there. Therefore, the fastest and safest way was to use foreign technology.”


Related Links:
Railway Technology - The importance of China's high-speed tech transfer policy

High-speed rail in China

International Technology Transfer and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from the High-Speed Rail Sector in China

CEP Trade


News Posted: 01/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Telegraph

Britain is damning itself to a low wage, low productivity economy

As the London School of Economics’ “Growth Commission” noted in a recent update on the UK economy, growing self-employment is eroding the incentives for companies to invest in training and skills. I don’t want to demonise the so-called “gig economy”, which for many of those who work in it is a positive and liberating choice. It has also greatly contributed to Britain’s superior employment performance

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
The Daily Telegraph - Britain is damning itself to a low wage, low productivity economy

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 01/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Washington Post

Is the WTO one of Trump's ‘big quagmire deals'? here's what's at stake

Recent research by Paola Conconi, Maurizio Zanardi and their co-authors finds U.S. presidential elections tend to influence the timing of WTO dispute filings, especially those with economic interests in key electoral (“swing”) states. But if domestic politics drove the filing of those cases and winning them would mainly help a political opponent, incoming presidents may choose to drop them entirely and focus on their own priorities.

Related article

‘Suspiciously timed trade disputes: How politics influencese WTO enforcement’, Paola Conconi, David DeRemer, Georg Kirchsteiger, Lorenzo Trimarchi and Maurizio Zanardi, Vox Article, 16 June 2015

http://voxeu.org/article/politics-influences-wto-enforcement


Related Links:
The Washington Post - Is the WTO one of Trump's ‘big quagmire deals'? here's what's at stake

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage


News Posted: 28/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC 2

Newsnight [23:39]

Snippet: ...Although maybe they won't thank me for saying that. Tracey Brown is the Director of Sense and Science - Because Evidence Matters, Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the author of Black Swan and Swati Dhingra is an Economist at LSE. Nice to have all of... (from 28m10s).


Related Links:
BBC 2 - Newsnight [23:39]

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 27/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Irish Times

Theresa May's Nasty Party dons UKIP's Brexit clothes at a heavy price

Immigration has now been extensively studied: there is lots of excellent data that reveals robust conclusions over many different pieces of research. According to, for example, the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance, EU immigrants are more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than their UK-born counterparts.


Related Links:
The Irish Times - Theresa May's Nasty Party dons UKIP's Brexit clothes at a heavy price

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Times

Our nation of shoppers needs a new growth model

…"more coherent and comprehensive than anything the government has yet come up with" Article on the LSE Growth Commission Report.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
The Sunday Times - Our nation of shoppers needs a new growth model

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 26/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC III – video

What would the UK look like without immigrants?

On #OneDayWithoutUs people are encouraged to show how much immigrants contribute to the country.

So how much of a difference do immigrants make to the UK economy?

At1:12 mins CEP (LSE) research flashes up.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358

CEP Growth Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/growth/default.asp

CEP Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp


Related Links:
BBC III – video - What would the UK look like without immigrants?

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 24/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Brexit Bulletin: Team May hits back

Brexit is expected to spell the end of passporting, where firms seamlessly service the rest of the single market from their London hubs. That could herald a loss of more than 25 percent of the U.K.’s total financial services trade, a London School of Economics study said on Thursday. 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Bloomberg - Brexit Bulletin: Team May hits back

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Stephen Machin webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Philippe Aghion webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage


News Posted: 24/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

UK banks' loss of EU passport a ‘major threat', LSE study says

The U.K. government must ensure British financial-services companies don’t lose their ease of access to the European Union after Brexit as a “matter of urgency,” according to a report backed by high-profile British economists including former Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean. The study, compiled by the London School of Economics with input from business leaders, ex-policy makers and academics, says the U.K. needs to retain near-equivalent European Union passporting rights and warned that alternatives are “costly and time-consuming.”  It sets out a list of recommendations for Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration to bolster growth, including prioritizing free-trade deals with the U.S. and EU. It also encourages the government to boost skills, develop an industrial strategy, and increase competition in finance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/u-k-banks-loss-of-eu-passport-a-major-threat-lse-study-says

 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - UK banks' loss of EU passport a ‘major threat', LSE study says

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Channel 4

FactCheckQandA: Why isn't immigration falling more quickly?

Why has net migration continued to rise and successive government’s failed to hit their targets?

According to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), the majority of those who come from the EU, do so for work related reasons, whilst the majority of those who come from non-EU countries do so for study-related reasons. Both positively contribute to the UK economy with the CEP suggesting both groups have had no negative effect on jobs or wages. This is one of the main reasons the government has found it difficult to reduce immigration.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.

Related Links:

 

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358

 

 


Related Links:
Channel 4 - FactCheckQandA: Why isn't immigration falling more quickly?

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Public Finance

LSE growth commission sets out economic reform proposals

Britain’s tax laws are biased in favour of the self-employed and should be reformed to enable greater investment in people instead of buildings and machines, the LSE Growth Commission has said. This was one of the findings of a report released by the commission today on how the UK can achieve inclusive and sustainable growth after Brexit. In the study, authors identify four key priority areas: jobs and skills, industrial strategy, economic openness, and finance and growth. The commission consists of senior figures from business, politics and academia and was formed in 2013 to provide authoritative and evidence-based policy recommendations. UK Growth: A New Chapter was based on the input of senior policymakers, business people and academics, including two former chancellors, George Osborne and Alastair Darling.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Public Finance - LSE growth commission sets out economic reform proposals

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

Brexit Bulletin: What Can By-Elections Tell Us About Brexit?

Snippet: ... Due today: latest migration figures from the ONS, and a report on the economy from the LSE Growth Commission.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - Brexit Bulletin: What Can By-Elections Tell Us About Brexit?

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Anna Valero webpage

Richard Davies webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Philippe Aghion webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

House of Lords Hansard – www.parliament.uk

LSE research mentioned in Lords debate on the Article 50 Bill

During Lords debate on the Article 50 Bill, Lord McKenzie of Luton (Lab) mentioned LSE/CEP research:

 

"One of the most profound choices that the Government are seeking to make is to eschew membership of the single market and the customs union. They are prepared to sacrifice these at the altar of reducing immigration, notwithstanding research, most recently from the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, again showing the benefits to national income, taxes and the budget ​deficit from immigration, and notwithstanding a report from the think tank Global Future that suggests that the Government’s approach could mean a fall in current net levels of immigration of no more than 15%, and that might be reduced further by the terms of new free trade agreements, which typically come with a demand for liberalisation on free movement."

 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358


Related Links:
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 21/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera TV

CEP on TV/Radio

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to Al Jazeera. The topic was the confirmation of Steven Mnuchin as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. The interview covered the proposed U.S. tax reforms and how changes to financial regulation might affect the U.S. dollar and international trade. 


Related Links:
Al Jazeera TV - CEP on TV/Radio

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNBC

Trump's trade war may have already begun

"The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade," said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. "You don't even know who you're going to hurt with these kind of things. You're probably going to destroy American jobs in the end."


Related Links:
CNBC - Trump's trade war may have already begun

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The New York Times

Trump's trade war may have already begun

“The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade,” said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. “You don’t even know who you’re going to hurt with these kind of things. You’re probably going to destroy American jobs in the end.”


Related Links:
The New York Times - Trump's trade war may have already begun

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Star Tribune Online

World awaits next move amid threat of trade war

Most experts have assumed the responsibilities of governance would temper Trump's trade posture. Given that nearly one-third of all U.S. trade is conducted with China and Mexico, a rupture risks severe economic damage. "The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade," said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. "You don't even know who you're going to hurt with these kind of things. You're probably going to destroy American jobs in the end."


Related Links:
Star Tribune Online - World awaits next move amid threat of trade war

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Does a firm hiring an experienced manager improve its performance?

Exporters to Angola that hired managers with specific types of experience were more likely to succeed, write Giordano Mion, Luca David Opromolla and Alessandro Sforza.

The enormous variation in firm performance has become a focus of empirical and theoretical interest throughout the social sciences, including economics. ... We believe the next question to be addressed in this literature is what happens when managers move from one firm to another. Does a firm hiring a good manager improve its performance? How much? If yes, is it due to the manager intrinsic capabilities or is it due to the knowledge and abilities the manager has learned in previous firms? What happens to the firm when the “good” manager leaves?


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Does a firm hiring an experienced manager improve its performance?

The Diffusion of Knowledge via Managers' Mobility

CEP Trade

Giordano Mion webpage

Alessandro Sforza webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

YLE (Finland)

Taloudellinen epävarmuus kalvaa brexit-Britanniaa

Britain's economy made a decision after the brexit-lock braking. One-third of the companies that froze investment plans as a result of a decision. The collapse of the value of the pound sterling told the concern in the market. Light in the darkness is brought to the car manufacturer Nissan's fall made an extensive investment decision. The British Government has committed itself to the EU get rid of presented 7 000 jobs in the creative vitality after spending as evidence of Brexit in. However, the decision by the secretive Government boosted Nissanille. Researcher Swati Dhingra to keep secret the agreement concern.


Related Links:
YLE (Finland) - Taloudellinen epävarmuus kalvaa brexit-Britanniaa

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Challenges.fr (France)

2016: 'in success formidable pour l'industrie automobile britannique'

Thomas Sampson, Professor at the London School of Economics, warns that in addition to tariffs, British producers may suffer the impact of foreign barriers. "They would have to reorganize all of their supply chain, which could disrupt significantly the automotive industry" in the country, he warns.


Related Links:
Challenges.fr (France) - 2016: 'in success formidable pour l'industrie automobile britannique'

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

ABS/CBN News

Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British carmakers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs. "Inside the customs union cross-border supply networks can flourish, but if trade in car parts faces tariffs, rules-of-origin restrictions and other border barriers, then producers will need to reorganize their supply chain, potentially causing substantial disruption to trade in the car industry," he told AFP.


Related Links:
ABS/CBN News - Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Le Point.fr

En renouveau, l'industrie automobile britannique a la croisee des Chemins du Brexit

Thomas Sampson, Professor at the London School of Economics, warns that in addition to tariffs, British producers may suffer the impact of foreign barriers. "They would have to reorganize all of their supply chain, which could disrupt significantly the automotive industry" in the country, he warns.


Related Links:
Le Point.fr - En renouveau, l'industrie automobile britannique a la croisee des Chemins du Brexit

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

France 24

Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Last week Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed Brexit would see Britain leave the European single market, creating a stumbling block for the car industry which relies on trading vehicles and loose parts without paying duties. Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British carmakers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs.


Related Links:
France 24 - Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business World

Could 'Brexit' put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British car makers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs. “Inside the customs union cross-border supply networks can flourish, but if trade in car parts faces tariffs, rules-of-origin restrictions and other border barriers, then producers will need to reorganize their supply chain, potentially causing substantial disruption to trade in the car industry,” he told AFP.


Related Links:
Business World - Could 'Brexit' put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Deutsche Welle TV (DW-TV) online

Theresa May 'needs free trade deal' with Donald Trump to prove that Brexit works

DW spoke to economist Thomas Sampson from the London School of Economics ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May's visit to the White House. She is the first world leader to meet the new US President Donald Trump.

DW spoke to economist Thomas Sampson from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, an expert in international trade relations.

DW: Thomas Sampson, can Theresa May expect to reach any substantial agreement?

Thomas Sampson: She's hoping for an agreement to start talking. Until the UK actually leaves the EU, it can't make trade deals with other countries anyway. There are limits on what can be agreed. What May wants is to come back and say to the British people: We don't have a deal yet, but Trump is open to talk about a free trade agreement once we've left the EU. That's her goal.


Related Links:
Deutsche Welle TV (DW-TV) online - Theresa May 'needs free trade deal' with Donald Trump to prove that Brexit works

CEP Trade


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Scotland

Good morning Scotland

Dennis Novy gave a live radio interview [8.35-8.40am] on Donald Trump and his withdrawal from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP, the trade deal previously negotiated by Barack Obama with Asian/Australian partner countries). How does the withdrawal from TPP affect global trade policy and the chances of a British trade with the U.S.?

[Listen about 2:37:00 in.]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Scotland - Good morning Scotland

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 24/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Fortune

Why attacking free trade is great politics and bad economics

It has long been known that America’s Senate is less protectionist (i.e., more likely to favor trade deals) than the House. The usual explanation was that senators, representing larger territories, took a broader view.

But Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi discovered that only certain U.S. senators were less protectionist. Which senators? Precisely those basking in the relative comfort of the first four years of their terms. 

Related publications

'Policymakers' horizon and trade reforms: the protectionist effect of elections', Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi, Journal of International Economics, Vol 94, 2014.

 

 


Related Links:
Fortune - Why attacking free trade is great politics and bad economics

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage


News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

T13.cl

Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

"Trade agreements are based on have something to give to receive something in return. "Nobody is doing charity here", explains Swati Dhingra, academic at the center of economic performance at the LSE.


Related Links:
T13.cl - Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 20/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Mundo

Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

"Trade agreements are based on have something to give to receive something in return. No one is making charity here", explains Swati Dhingra, academic center of economic behaviour of the LSE.

Related Links:
BBC Mundo - Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Asia

BBC Asian Network

Swati Dhinghra commenting on free trade and Brexit.

[Time: 08:00:24]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Asia - BBC Asian Network

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

The Today Programme

0750 Swati Dhingra interviewed.

After the UK gives up full membership of the EU's customs union exporters' goods could be facing checks and delays at Britain's border.


Related Links:
BBC Radio 4 - The Today Programme

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC 2

Newsnight

Swati Dhingra interviewed.  Speaking about Brexit and free trade.


Related Links:
BBC 2 - Newsnight

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Canary

At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

May’s speech suggests the UK is on course to aim for a bilateral agreement. Currently, countries like Switzerland pay around 40% as much as the UK’s contribution for EU membership for access on those terms, according to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). And that does not include free trade in services.


Related Links:
The Canary - At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Theresa May's Brexit speech leaves small firms in the dark

Article by Swati Dhingra

No access to EU’s single market and replacement deals potentially decades away heightens uncertainty for UK businesses.

Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday was the government’s first informative announcement on what the UK will look like after Brexit. A customs union with the EU has been ruled out so the UK can negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU. This hard Brexit would mean that, after we leave, the UK will trade with the EU and the rest of the world under World Trade Organisation rules, until it has negotiated its new trade deals. That is unless we make an interim agreement with the EU before we leave, which would also need to be approved by the WTO. However, we still could not make trade agreements with countries outside the EU before Brexit without the EU’s approval. The EU continues to be our biggest trade and investment partner. Exiting the single market without any other trade deal with the EU in place would mean a 5% cost disadvantage for UK manufacturers, who would face import taxes in the EU.


Related Links:
Guardian - Theresa May's Brexit speech leaves small firms in the dark

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News

Brexit: the 'economic cost' of Sterling's surge in value after UK PM's speech

"Currency markets are always volatile and can be affected by political and economic views," Dr. Thomas Sampson, associate professor at the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics told Sputnik.


Related Links:
Sputnik News - Brexit: the 'economic cost' of Sterling's surge in value after UK PM's speech

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

“There’s absolutely no controversy about gravity models,” said Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at the London School of Economics, also pointing out that gravity models are the subject of the second chapter of the new handbook of international economics. Thomas Sampson, also an assistant professor at the LSE, added that the Cambridge team’s own analysis was itself methodologically flawed.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Mundo (Spain)

Trump, Brexit, eleccciones europeas y otros enigmas de la economía para 2017

El comercio mundial patas arriba

Swati Dhingra, especialista de comercio de la London School of Economics, pone el acento en otro peligro.

"Lo más grave sería una guerra comercial de Estados Unidos con China en caso de que imponga aranceles y que China apele ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio", le dijo Dhigra al dominical británico The Observer.

More serious would be a commercial war between United States with China should impose tariffs and that Chinese appeal before the Organization World of the trade", said Dhingra to the British Sunday paper ‘The Observer’.

Also in:  Hispantv.com ¿Cuáles son los enigmas principales de la economía para 2017?/What are the major mysteries of the economy for 2017?

 


Related Links:
BBC Mundo (Spain) - Trump, Brexit, eleccciones europeas y otros enigmas de la economía para 2017

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Brexit and politics loom over UK after tumultuous 2016

“The more likely a hard Brexit becomes, the bigger I think the business response will be in terms of reducing investment and firms relocating activity out of the U.K.,” said Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics. “It’ll be a slower effect gradually emerging over time rather than anything dramatic.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg - Brexit and politics loom over UK after tumultuous 2016

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Fracking has made US manufacturing more competitive

It has lowered costs for energy-intensive industries, boosting output, employment and exports, write Rabah Arezki, Thiemo Fetzer and Frank Pisch

… Our results suggest that the cost advantage due to the shale gas boom may have helped the US economy recover significantly faster than it would otherwise have done after the financial crisis of 2007/08.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Fracking has made US manufacturing more competitive

Fracking: the boost to US manufacturing

On the Comparative advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution

CEP Trade

Frank Pisch webpage


News Posted: 16/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE South Asia blog

Demonetisation is not the way to tackle corruption

Drawing on India’s previous experiences of demonetisation and contemporary data, Swati Dhingra and Amartya Menon argue the benefits seem few and far between. They write that if the government is serious about tackling corruption, it should prioritise taxing the super-rich and changing the tax system to minimise arbitrary action by corrupt tax officials.


Related Links:
LSE South Asia blog - Demonetisation is not the way to tackle corruption

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 30/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Scotland

Newsdrive

Dennis Novy was interviewed by BBC Radio Scotland on 22 November 2016 about Donald Trump's policy stance towards the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), a proposed trade deal between the United States and various Pacific partner countries. Trump announced he would withdraw from TPP on day one of his presidency.

[Around 4:05pm]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Scotland - Newsdrive

TTIP: is free trade coming to the North Atlantic?

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

SNP Helensburgh

HARD BREXIT: 'the elephant in the room' at autumn statement

HUGE THREAT TO ECONOMY TO OVERSHADOW TORY BUDGET

The Scottish National Party has said that the threat of a hard Brexit will be the ‘elephant in the room’ at the Autumn Statement.

“The Treasury have carried out an assessment and its conclusions make for pretty grim reading.  “Tax receipts down between £38 and £66 billion a year after 15 years and GDP down as much as 9.5% if the UK reverts to WTO rules.  “The impact on productivity is as bad. The LSE (Centre for Economic Performance) suggest reduced trade will reduce productivity amounting to between 6.3% and 9.5% of GDP. That is the equivalent of up to £6,400 per household


Related Links:
SNP Helensburgh - HARD BREXIT: 'the elephant in the room' at autumn statement

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Sunday Herald (Scotland)

'Tory austerity crippled the economy, and Brexit is going to ruin it - yet Theresa May still has no plan'

The impact on productivity is as bad. The LSE (Centre for Economic Performance) suggests reduced trade will reduce productivity amounting to between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent of GDP.

This article was published online by the Sunday Herald (Scotland) on November 20, 2016

Link to article here

 


Related Links:
Sunday Herald (Scotland) - 'Tory austerity crippled the economy, and Brexit is going to ruin it - yet Theresa May still has no plan'

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

CKWX News (Vancouver, Canada)

News 1130

Dr Swati Dhingra interviewed, talking about the potential international implications of a Trump White House as well as initial reactions from (Brexit) UK.

The interview was broadcast by CKWX News on the News 1130 programme on November 16, 2016
[No link available.]


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera

Inside story

Dr Swati Dhingra joined the discussion programme.  The topic was the demonitization of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes in India.

The interview was broadcast by Al Jazeera television on November 15, 2016
Link to broadcast
here


Related Links:
Al Jazeera - Inside story

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Evening news

Dr Swati Dhingra on BBC News (19:35) commenting on PM Theresa May's speech on remaking globalization.

[No link available.]


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 14/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

FXStreet

What will Brexit do to Britain's growth rate?

We have gone back to the post-Brexit growth forecasts made earlier this year by six organisations – the NIESR, the Treasury, the OECD, the London School of Economics, the Confederation for British Industry and Open Europe – in the run up to the referendum. Their methodologies and assumptions varied enormously, as did their results.

This article was published online by FXStreet on November 7, 2016.
Link to article here


Related Links:
FXStreet - What will Brexit do to Britain's growth rate?

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 07/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The meaning of Brexit is yet to become clear. But if Brexit means leaving the customs union of the European Union, Thomas Sampson looks at what it might meant for the UK to pursue its own trade policy for the first time since joining the EU in 1973.
What strategy should the UK adopt to secure its objectives in future trade negotiations? A successful strategy must be grounded in a clear understanding of why countries negotiate trade agreements and how negotiations are conducted.

This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on October 26, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations, Thomas Sampson. CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No. 9, October 2016
Link to CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 26/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Affairs Magazine

Salvaging Brexit

The right way to leave the EU
Article by Swati Dhingra
On June 30, a week after the British public voted to leave the EU, Theresa May gave a speech launching her candidacy for prime minister in which she declared, ''Brexit means Brexit''. Her message was straightforward: even though she herself had supported remaining in the EU, she would not hesitate to implement the will of the voters. Yet months after assuming office, May has yet to answer crucial questions about what a British exit, or Brexit, would mean for trade, immigration, and financial services. It is still not at all obvious what Brexit will actually look like. That's because the referendum has confronted the government with two distinct but related problems: how to leave the EU as painlessly as possible and how to reverse the years of economic neglect that have divided the country. Solving each will require hard choices, and whatever the politicians decide, some of their supporters will feel let down. With this in mind, they should prioritize prosperity over politics and defy radicals on both sides of the debate.

This article was published online in the November/December 2016 Foreign Affairs Magazine on October 21, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 21/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Herald Scotland

Panic! We're led by a Dad's Army of Brexiter buffoons

It's beginning to dawn on Brexit voters that leaving the EU will be a disaster for working people. Inflation is back as a direct result of the 18 per cent devaluation of the pound since June 23. The forecast for price rises next year is three to four per cent, which doesn't sound like much but most of this is going to be on essentials such as food, clothing, energy and transport, which will disproportionately hit those on already tight family budgets. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported yesterday that the UK Cabinet has been presented with three independent reports (from the Treasury, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the London School of Economics) forecasting an average loss of 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2030. That is equivalent to a major economic recession spread over 15 years. We are talking about losing hundreds of billions of pounds in economic output if Britain is forced out of the EU customs union, the destination of half of Britain's exports. We know who will pay the price of the public spending cuts that will ride on the back of this fall in national wealth. Brexit ministers pooh-pooh this as pessimism and negativity from Bremoaners and Eurowhingers. But they've demonstrably failed to come up with any alternative forecasts, or indeed any coherent plan for dealing with the consequences of isolation. Intoxicated by their referendum victory, Brexiters seem to be more interested in fantasising about new Royal Yachts and inspecting the teeth of migrant children.

This article was published online by The Herald Scotland on October 20, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 20/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

International Business Times

Latest twists as the Cabinet clashes over Brexit, Single Markets and customs unions

Prime Minister Theresa May is in Brussels for her first EU summit as UK leader, in the same week as cabinet ministers were presented with a paper warning that Britain pulling out of the EU customs union could lead to a 4.5% fall in GDP by 2030. The paper presented to ministers - a mixture of studies by the Treasury, the think tank NIESR and the Centre for Economic Performance and London School of Economics - also said ports such as Dover and Holyhead, which handle a lot of road freight, could become log-jammed if customs checks on vehicles transporting goods were introduced.

This article was published online by the International Business Times on October 20, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 20/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

RT UK

Cuts caused Brexit

Study says Brexit avoidable if Cameron had cut austerity.
Interview with Dennis Novy

The interview was broadcast by RT UK on October 19, 2016
Link to interview here [0:47 seconds]

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

City A.M.

Leaked government documents reveal £75bn cost of hard Brexit

The calculations, sent to May's close-knit team of Brexit advisers, which includes Hammond, David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson, claim the UK economy would be 4.5 percent smaller by 2030 if it leaves the Customs Union as part of any Brexit deal.
... the claims which are arrived at by taking the average assessment obtained from the controversial work undertaken by the Treasury before the vote, along with pre-23 June studies from the NIESR and the London School of Economics, werer dismissed by several experts.

This article was published online by City A.M. on October 19, 2016,br> Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Philip Hammond to be pressed on risks of UK leaving EU customs union

Chancellor to appear before Treasury select committee after Whitehall estimates show economy could shrink by 4.5%
Trade flows and foreign investment would also be hit hard by leaving the customs union, according to figures calculated for the Guardian on the same basis as those prepared by civil servants for the government's Brexit committee. The pro-EU thinktank Open Britain used the same studies - by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, the Treasury and the London School of Economics - to suggest trade could decline by almost 12% and foreign investment by 10%, or more than £4bn, if Britain left the customs union.

This article was published by The Guardian on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: Theresa May warned Britain could lose 4.5% of its GDP if it leaves EU customs union

Cabinet ministers receive stark economic warnings against adopting a 'Norway-style' model
The UK could suffer a fall in GDP of 4.5% by 2030 if it leaves the EU customs union. Cabinet ministers were given stark warnings from multiple sources of the effect of adopting a Norway-style model, in a paper that was circulated at a meeting of Theresa May's Brexit cabinet committee, according to the Guardian. Studies by the Treasury, think tank NIESR and London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, made pre-Brexit predictions of the impact of the UK remaining in the single market but leaving the customs union.

This article was published by The Independent on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Mail

Ministers do battle over whether Britain should stay in the European customs union amid warnings quitting could mean a 4.5% hit to economy

Ministers are at loggerheads over whether to quit the European customs union amid warnings it could mean a 4.5 per cent hit to GDP.
Papers circulated at a meeting of the Brexit Cabinet committee apparently suggested that leaving could clog up trade through Britain's ports.
The research, by the Treasury, the thinktank NIESR, the Centre for Economic Performance and London School of Economics focus on a Norway-style model where the UK exits the single market but stays inside the customs union.

This article was published by The Daily Mail on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Britain, these are the five realistic choices for Brexit - take your pick

The Economists for Brexit group claim Brexit 5 would deliver a UK growth boom by 2020. But economists at the London School of Economics say this is ideologically driven pseudoscience and that unilateral free trade would, in fact, reduce UK GDP by between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent by 2030, equivalent to between £4,200 and £6,300 per household.

This article was published by The Independent on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related Publications
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

RT TV

Russia Today

Dennis Novy interviewed live around 8.15pm. The topic analysing the Brexit referendum that was held in June 2016. The interview was about how the Brexit vote outcomes across voting areas in the UK were linked to immigration and fiscal cuts.

The broadcast was shown on RT TV - Russia Today on October 18, 2016
Link to broadcast here

Related publications
Who Voted for Brexit ? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis, Becker, S. O., T. Fetzer, and D. Novy, CAGE Working Paper 305, October 2016

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Share Radio

Belgium puts EU-Canada trade deal in flux

EU trade ministers have had Belgium on their minds today - but rather than tucking into chocolate and waffles they've been dealing with the more unappetizing problem of a regional Belgian parliament that's blocking their attempts to cut a trade deal with Canada. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - or CETA - is the EU's biggest trade deal yet, with many Brexiteers eager to use it as a model for their own post-Brexit deal. But without Belgium on-board, CETA is stalled.
Share Radio's Juliette Foster was joined on the phone by Dennis Novy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and Associate of the Centre for Economic Performance, to discuss the future of CETA.

This interview was broadcast by Share Radio on October 18, 2016
Link to the broadcast here

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Migration Matters

Do migrants take away jobs?

Part 2/6 from six impossible ideas (after Brexit)
Many people think that migrants take jobs away from citizens, reduce wages or both. But you may also have heard the argument that immigrants benefit the economy because they take risks and start businesses. So, who's right?
We took this question to Alan Manning, Professor of Economics at LSE. In three short videos, Alan explains how migration affects your job prospects, presents the data from the UK and the world, and gives insights on managing migration in light of this evidence.

The episode of Migration Matters was posted on October 17, 2016
Link to the article and films here

Related publications
Recommended reading: Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2015 Election Analysis Series, Paper No.19, February 2015

Related links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
Alan Manning CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 17/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Playing it safe may mean giving Brexit Britain a very wide berth

Foreign direct investment is also much more economically potent than the domestic variety. It brings with it new technological and managerial knowhow that can dramatically boost productivity, according to London School of Economics research.

This article was published in The Times on October 17, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03, April 2016
Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03
See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 17/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

WallStreetcn.com (China)

'The news quiz' United Kingdom 'hard back in Europe,' you need to know

CEP research article previously published by Vox referenced in article published in PRC:
[8]Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson: UK-EU relations after Brexit: What is best for the UK economy?

This article was published online by WallStreetcn.com (China) on October 16, 2016
Link to article here

Related article
06 August 2016
Vox
UK-EU relations after Brexit: what is best for the UK economy?

Related publications
Dhingra, S. and T. Sampson (2016), Life After Brexit, CEP Brexit Analysis 01, February 2016
Dhingra, S., H. Huang, G. Ottaviano, J.P. Pessoa, T. Sampson and J. Van Reenen (2016a), The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects, Technical Paper, London: CEP
Dhingra, S., G. Ottaviano, T. Sampson and J. Van Reenen (2016b), The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment in the UK, CEP Brexit Analysis 03, April 2016
Dhingra, S., G. Ottaviano, J. Van Reenen and J. Wadsworth (2016c), Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, CEP Brexit Analysis 05, May 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 16/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: UK faces £350m-a-week ‘divorce bill' as result of leaving the EU

Economist Thomas Sampson told The Independent: ''It's important to remember that the exit bill would be a one-off payment and in the longer run it is likely to be dwarfed by the broader economic costs resulting from reduced integration with EU markets, particularly if the government pursues a hard Brexit.''

This article was published by The Independent on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: UK faces £350m-a-week ‘divorce bill' as result of leaving the EU

Economist Thomas Sampson told The Independent: ''It's important to remember that the exit bill would be a one-off payment and in the longer run it is likely to be dwarfed by the broader economic costs resulting from reduced integration with EU markets, particularly if the government pursues a hard Brexit.''

This article was published by The Independent on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

iNews

The politics behind pound sterling's volatile week

The pound has lost nearly 18 per cent of its value against the dollar since Britain voted Brexit, two per cent more than during the 2008 financial crash. On Thursday it reached its lowest point for 168 years. ''Movements in sterling in the past week have made it clear that news which increases the probability of a 'hard Brexit' reduces the value of the pound,'' Dr Thomas Sampson, an economics lecturer at the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE, told i. ''This reflects concerns that a 'hard Brexit' will increase the costs of trading with the EU and reduce the UK's output and living standards.''

This article was published by iNews on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

iNews

The politics behind pound sterling's volatile week

The pound has lost nearly 18 per cent of its value against the dollar since Britain voted Brexit, two per cent more than during the 2008 financial crash. On Thursday it reached its lowest point for 168 years. ''Movements in sterling in the past week have made it clear that news which increases the probability of a 'hard Brexit' reduces the value of the pound,'' Dr Thomas Sampson, an economics lecturer at the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE, told i. ''This reflects concerns that a 'hard Brexit' will increase the costs of trading with the EU and reduce the UK's output and living standards.''

This article was published by iNews on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

China's highly successful demand for technology transfer in high-speed trains

The rate of growth in technological innovations in China has increased significantly in the past two decades (see Figure 1). What's more, it is widely believed that the ability to learn from foreign technology and chase the global technological frontier relatively quickly has been a key contributor to China's growth miracle (Van Reenen and Yueh, 2012). The Chinese government has actively pursued what it calls a 'market for technology' policy: demanding that in return for having market access, foreign multinationals should develop technology cooperation with local firms.
Our research explores the extent to which international technology transfer spurs domestic innovation. We focus on the best example of the market for technology policy: the introduction of state-of-the-art technology into China's high-speed railways (HSR) during the massive expansion of its HSR system in recent years.

This article was posted online by the LSE Business Review blog on October 13, 2016
Link to the article here

Related publications
High-speed rail in China, Yatang Lin, Yu Qin and Zhuan Xie. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016
International Technology Transfer and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from the High-Speed Rail Sector in China, Yatang Lin, Yu Qin and Zhuan Zie, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1393, December 2015

Related links
Yatang Lin webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 13/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera TV

News

Dennis Novy interviewed. The topic was the leaked Brexit analysis from the Treasury and the economic implications of Brexit, in particular for international trade.

This interview was broadcast by Al Jazeera Television on October 11, 2016
Live link no longer available.

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 11/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Three Counties Radio

Jasmeen Khan

Caller mentions research by the Centre for Economic Performance at around 01:11:05
Caller: ... not in many cases a cynical attempt on the part of employers to simply cheat workers by paying them the lowest wages that they can. It's a competitive market that they are operating in and unless they are able to manage their costs then they go out of business.
Interviewer: ... language around the EU was people that felt workers from outside the country were taking jobs that they had a right to.
Caller: There is no evidence of that really.
Interviewer: you can't deny the strength of the sentiment
Caller: ... it's a great shame that that was allowed to take root. I can't remember any really effective methods on the part of any politicians, certainly from the mainstream parties, to do that. The only - in the FT this week there was a long article that refuted all these allegations about low wages - about migrant workers driving down wages - the London School of Economics, their Economic Performance Centre [sic] looked at all of this and refuted all of those arguments as well but there was nobody amongst the politicians who took up these arguments and ... [caller lost]

The radio programme was broadcast on BBC Three Counties Radio's Yasmeen Khan talk show on October 9, 2016
Link to the broadcast here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 09/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Jeremy Corbyn's reaction to what Theresa May said about immigration was the last thing Labour needed

[Jeremy] Corbyn too is proposing a solution ''which would reduce numbers'', despite the fact in its 2015 General Election briefing, the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics observed: ''There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, wages, housing or the crowding out of public services.''

This article was published online by the Independent on October 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Proposals on lines of foreign workers cause outcry

Academic studies also find little link between migration and unemployment. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increases in EU immigration, these have not had the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008.

This article was published by the Financial Times on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Proposals on lists of foreign workers cause outcry

Economists see little to link migration and unemployment
There is little evidence that migrants have displaced British workers from jobs. Indeed, the employment rate for UK nationals is now 74.6 per cent, the highest since records began in 1997. Academic studies also find little link between migration and unemployment. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increases in EU immigration, these have not had the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008.

This article was published by The Financial Times on October 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Immigrants who 'consume' Britain's wealth are not welcome, Liam Fox says

A study by the London School of Economics published earlier this year found that EU immigration had no negative impact on British wages, jobs or public services. That research echoed the findings of countless other studies on the issue. The Government has yet to set out any particular vision for what immigration policy might look like after Brexit, though it has said it wants to end the status quo of freedom of movement.

This article was published by The Independent on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Migration: Needed but not wanted

Economic migrants are seen as a threat to jobs and the welfare state. The reality is more complex
Until quite recently the academic literature treated migrants as substitutes for native workers. But what if they were complements; if low-skilled migrants helped to boost the productivity of low-skilled natives? Gianmarco Ottaviano, of the University of Bologna, and Giovanni Peri, of the University of California, Davis, find that for workers with at least a high-school qualification, the wage effects of low-skill immigration are positive if you drop the assumption that workers of the same age and education are perfect substitutes and that workers of one skill level, say cooks, do not affect the productivity of workers at other skill levels, say waiters or restaurant managers. The effect on the wages of high-school dropouts is only mildly negative. A paper by Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth, of the London School of Economics, similarly concludes that immigrants to Britain are imperfect substitutes for native-born workers, so they have little impact on natives' job prospects or wages. New immigrants tend to affect only the pay of recently arrived immigrants.

This article was published by The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration, offshoring, and American jobs, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri and Gregory White, American Economic Review, 103(5), August 2013
Immigration: the link to international trade in services, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri and Gregory White. Article in CentrePiece Volume 20, Issue 2, Autumn 2015
The impact of immigration on the structure of wages: theory and evidence from Britain, Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 10, Issue 1, February 2012
The Labour Market Effects of Immigration, Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 12, Issue 3, Winter 2008

Related links
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Marco Manacorda webpage
Alan Manning webpage
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Community Programme webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Britain's economy is flying blind 100 days after Brexit vote

“The government doesn’t have a plan, and until it decides, it’s really hard for anyone to prepare,” said Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics. “In the short run, uncertainty can cause some decline in activity, but that’s a separate issue from what will happen in the longer run once we change our relationship with the EU, which I’m much more concerned about.”


News Posted: 30/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News

Soft Power: This is how Chinese companies conquer Britain

According to estimates by the London School of Economics, Brexit will result in a 22 percent drop in direct investment into the British economy and a 3.4 percent drop in revenues.

This article was published online by Sputnik News on September 27, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: True cost of UK leaving EU without trade deal revealed

EXCLUSIVE: An analysis by The Independent of official data suggests British exporters would face a cost of at least £4.5bn - and in all likelihood they would take a hit many times larger
A separate analysis by the London School of Economics suggested the welfare losses of moving to the WTO rules in a ''big bang'' would be up to 3.5 per cent of GDP per head instantly. ''The fact that the country is in some way being told to be prepared to face what we regarded as a very pessimistic outcome is quite discouraging in itself,'' said Gianmarco Ottaviano of the LSE. John Van Reenen, a former colleague of Ottaviano and now Professor of Economics at MIT in the US, said trading under WTO rules would be a ''truly dreadful outcome for British people''.

This article was published by The Independent on September 23, 2016
Link to article here

See Also
DigitalSpy
Brexit: True cost of UK leaving EU without trade deal revealed

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 23/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

Handelsblatt

Taten mussen folgen

Even [Sadiq] Khan's predecessor Boris Johnson campaigned with several plans to build 55,000 new homes in London and to slow down the price increase caused by demand pressures. Up to the end of his tenure, he failed. Khan says ''Our city needs more than 50,000 new apartments a year''. Paul Cheshire, real estate expert and former Professor of geography at the London School of Economics (LSE), already had been critical of Johnson's plans and also thinks Khan's promise is hard to meet. ''The goal is indeed desirable, but to achieve it, one would need a magic wand,'' Cheshire said.

This article was published online by Handelsblatt on September 22, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Paul Cheshire webpage
Urban Programme webpage


News Posted: 22/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

La Croix.com (France)

Brexit, l'économie britannique fait de la résistance

With a major question mark: foreign groups continue to invest in the country? The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics estimated that membership of the EU has indeed increased foreign direct investment in the country to 28%.

This article was published online by La Croix.com on September 21, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 21/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Journal Gazette (Indiana, USA)

After Brexit, could be calm before storm

Fear of an economic meltdown was the biggest weapon in the campaign to stop Britain from leaving the European Union. Ten weeks after the vote, though, some say the fearmongering was overdone. Although the pound has fallen to a 30-year low, as predicted, people continue to spend and activity in manufacturing and services rebounded last month from a sharp contraction in July. House prices have held up.
But Swati Dhingra, one of those who forecast severe damage to the economy, says the danger hasn't past. Warnings about the impact of Brexit were focused on what might happen when Britain leaves the EU, and that won't happen for more than two years - at least. Until then, no one knows what the country's relationship with the EU will look like and what effect it will have on trade, labor supply and investment, she said.

This article was published online by The Journal Gazette (Indiana, USA) on September 18, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage

News Posted: 18/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

1 Das Erste (German Public TV Channel) - Europamagazin Programme

Brexit: Chaos in der Regierung und zunehmende Gewalt gegen Polen

Dennis Novy interviewed on the state of the British economy after the EU Referendum, and on the prospects for UK international trade negotiation.

The interview was recorded by 1 Das Erste (German Public TV Channel) on September 11, 2016
Link to broadcast here [About 04:39 minutes in]

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 11/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Mail

Britain's economy is stable - and people are surprised

Swati Dhingra, one of those who forecast severe damage to the economy, says the danger hasn't past. Warnings about the impact of Brexit were focused on what might happen when Britain leaves the EU, and that won't happen for more than two years - at least. Until then, no one knows what the country's relationship with the EU will look like and what effect it will have on trade, labor supply and investment, she said.
''It's too early to tell,'' said Dhingra, an expert on trade and international economics at the London School of Economics. ''The trade policy changes have not yet happened. Why are we expecting things to change?''

This article was published online by the Daily Mail on September 7, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage

News Posted: 07/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

The World Tonight

Dennis Novy interviewed. The topic was the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the recent political backlash from France and Germany.

The interview was broadcast on the BBC Radio 4 The World Tonight Programme on August 30, 2016
Link to broadcast here

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 30/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway)

Do we need more goals for society than economic growth?

Therefore, among others, economics professor Richard Layard of the London School of Economics urged to measure citizens' quality of life. OECD har i den såkalte «Bedre liv-indeksen» utarbeidet indikatorer på en rekke områder fra sysselsetting og bolig til frivillig aktivitetsliv og miljø, for å forsøke å måle livskvalitet i ulike land. OECD in the so-called "better life index" compiled indicators on a range of areas from employment and housing to volunteer aktivitetsliv and environment, in an attempt to measure quality of life in different countries. KrF fremmet forslag i Stortinget i 2009 om at også Norge burde gjøre dette. KrF proposed in Parliament in 2009 that also Norway should do this. Dette har resultert i en omtale av livskvalitetsindikatorer i Nasjonalbudsjettet. This has resulted in a review of quality of life indicators in the National Budget.

This article appeared on Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway) on 26 August 2016 Link to article

Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
News Posted: 26/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway)

Do we need more goals for society than economic growth?

Therefore, among others, economics professor Richard Layard of the London School of Economics urged to measure citizens' quality of life. OECD har i den såkalte «Bedre liv-indeksen» utarbeidet indikatorer på en rekke områder fra sysselsetting og bolig til frivillig aktivitetsliv og miljø, for å forsøke å måle livskvalitet i ulike land. OECD in the so-called "better life index" compiled indicators on a range of areas from employment and housing to volunteer aktivitetsliv and environment, in an attempt to measure quality of life in different countries. KrF fremmet forslag i Stortinget i 2009 om at også Norge burde gjøre dette. KrF proposed in Parliament in 2009 that also Norway should do this. Dette har resultert i en omtale av livskvalitetsindikatorer i Nasjonalbudsjettet. This has resulted in a review of quality of life indicators in the National Budget.

This article appeared on Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway) on 26 August 2016 Link to article

Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
News Posted: 26/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway)

Do we need more goals for society than economic growth?

Therefore, among others, economics professor Richard Layard of the London School of Economics urged to measure citizens' quality of life. OECD har i den såkalte «Bedre liv-indeksen» utarbeidet indikatorer på en rekke områder fra sysselsetting og bolig til frivillig aktivitetsliv og miljø, for å forsøke å måle livskvalitet i ulike land. OECD in the so-called "better life index" compiled indicators on a range of areas from employment and housing to volunteer aktivitetsliv and environment, in an attempt to measure quality of life in different countries. KrF fremmet forslag i Stortinget i 2009 om at også Norge burde gjøre dette. KrF proposed in Parliament in 2009 that also Norway should do this. Dette har resultert i en omtale av livskvalitetsindikatorer i Nasjonalbudsjettet. This has resulted in a review of quality of life indicators in the National Budget.

This article appeared on Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway) on 26 August 2016 Link to article

Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
News Posted: 26/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Scottish Daily Record

Scottish Government warns on Brexit cost

The Scottish Government estimates the impact of Brexit would be the equivalent of reducing the Scottish Government budget by between six and 13 per cent. The briefing paper figures are drawn from studies previously published by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, HM Treasury, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, PwC and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This article appeared in the Scottish Daily Record on 24 August 2016. Link to article

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here .

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage

News Posted: 24/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

LBC Radio

Nick Ferrari

Dennis Novy was interviewed live on LBC radio with Nick Ferrari on 24 August 2016. The topic was Brexit and whether we should have a second referendum. The background was Owen Smith's announcement of having a second referendum if he were to become prime minister.

This interview was broadcast on LBC Radio on August 24, 2016
[No link available.]

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

LBC Radio

Nick Ferrari

Dennis Novy was interviewed live on LBC radio with Nick Ferrari on 24 August 2016. The topic was Brexit and whether we should have a second referendum. The background was Owen Smith's announcement of having a second referendum if he were to become prime minister.

This interview was broadcast on LBC Radio on August 24, 2016
[No link available.]

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Der Tagesspiegel (Germany)

Britische Beziehungskisten

Even after the Brexit, Britain will seek economic ties to the EU. But what options are there? What are the costs? And how likely they are?
The economists Swati Dinghra and Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics to determine United Kingdom had as a member of the EEA ''more sovereignty given up than if remained in the EU''. According to their calculations London would have to pay 83 percent of the sum ...

This article was published online by Der Tagesspiegel on August 23, 2016
Link to article here

Also in
August 24, 2016
EurActiv (DE)
Britische Beziehungskisten

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 23/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Viet Q.vn (Vietnam)

Tang nang suat lao dong len 800% voi robot naha kho cua My

The likely Locus of search robots and packaging of 25 thousand square meter warehouse helps to increase the productivity of the warehouse up to 800 percent.
A previous study of Georg Graetz scientists and Guy Michaels (UK) shows, the robot had much contribution to the increase in labour productivity. Conducted survey of 14 production-mainly in the industrial sector-in 17 countries (including the United States, 14 countries in Europe, South Korea and Australia) in the years 1993-2007, the research team discovered the density using the robot for the hours of work of all of these countries have increased 150 percent.

This article was published online by VietQ.vn on August 16, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Money Marketing

Gregg McClymont: What does Brexit mean for UK pensions?

Beyond the territorial politics, Brexit has brought to the boil a long simmering tension between the UK's economic and political imperatives. The importance to the UK economy of the single European market in goods and services is clear. Economists do not agree about much, so the extent of their unanimity about the benefits of free trade is striking. The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance is typical, calculating that loss of the benefits of comparative advantage and competitive pressures via the single market have a direct cost amounting to 1.37 per cent to 2.92 per cent of UK living standards. Less trade means lower productivity, and weak productivity growth has been the UK's great macro weakness for half a century (the much reviled French economy's productivity is 30 per cent higher).

This article was published online by Money Marketing on August 15, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Sheffield

Brexit negotiations

Nothing off the table in Brexit negotiations says Centre for Economic Performance's Swati Dhingra.

This interview was broadcast by BBC Sheffield (Radio) on August 13, 2016
Link to broadcast here

Related publications
The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage

News Posted: 13/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Geopolitical Monitor

Flash: Brexit in more concrete economic terms

The reputed Centre for Economic Performance at LSE has long been studying the potential impact of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, and just this last week it published its latest report. This report focuses on the impacts of Brexit via its disruption of trade flows, and it contains some hard numbers that will make even the most determined Leaver's blood run cold.

This article was published online by Geopolitical Monitor on August 5, 2016
Link to article here. Subscription needed for full access.

Related publications
The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

What kind of relationship with the EU is best for the UK economy post-Brexit?

Article by Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson
The UK should join the EEA and remain part of the single market, write Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson
The UK has voted to leave the EU, but not in favour of any specific alternative to EU membership. This poses a challenge for UK policy makers and the new Prime Minister Theresa May. What should the UK's relations with the EU be, following Brexit? It is naive to expect economic considerations will be the only factor that determines what relationship the UK eventually seeks with the EU, or what deal the EU is willing to grant the UK. If the UK government's objective were to obtain the highest possible standard of living for UK citizens it would never invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon and start the Brexit process. But if Brexit must happen, it is useful to understand which option would do least harm to the UK economically. This option can then serve as a benchmark for evaluating the trade-offs required to obtain political objectives such as limits on immigration and 'taking back control'.

This article was published by the LSE Business Review on August 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.
Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, CEP Brexit Blog, July 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Voice of Islam

The Breakfast Show

We are joined by Swati Dhingra to give us an expert view on the migrant spike.

The interview was broadcast by the Voice of Islam Radio on August 2, 2016
Link to the show podcast here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage

News Posted: 02/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Vox

A new eBook: Brexit beckons

The 23 June 2016 Brexit vote saw British voters reject membership in the European Union. This column introduces a new VoxEU eBook containing 19 essays written by leading economists on a wide array of topics and from a broad range of perspectives.

Trade Policy
The challenges can be useful slotted into three categories:

  • Reconstructing UK-EU trade relations;
  • Disentangling the UK's and the EU's WTO memberships; and
  • Reconstituting the EU's trade agreements with third nations.

  • The first is by far the most important economically, since something over half of the UK's trade in goods and services is with the EU, and the same is true of the UK's foreign investments.
    The chapters by Angus Armstrong, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, Jim Rollo and Alan Winter, Nicolas Crafts, and Simon Evenett all address various aspects of these three challenges.

    Labour Issues
    The chapters by Jonathan Portes, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, and Barbara Petrongolo take a look at labour market issues raised by Brexit. ... Bell and Machin show that areas with relatively low median wages were substantially more likely to vote Leave, and discuss the likely implications of Brexit for wage inequality in the future. Petrongolo argues that immigration has had a positive impact on net fiscal receipts without hurting the labour market prospects of UK-born workers, who are therefore unlikely to benefit from any restrictions imposed on immigration from the EU.

    This article was published online by the Vox on August 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.
    Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, CEP Brexit Blog, July 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    Brian Bell webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    Stephen Machin webpage
    Barbara Petrongolo webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

    VideoVox

    A 'Norway Temp' Deal

    What will the arrangement with the EU be? In this video, Swati Dhingra discusses introducing a temporary Norway-like deal. This video is part of the ''Econ after Brexit'' series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

    The interview was uploaded to view via CEPR Video Vox on July 29, 2016
    View video here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Asian Network

    News

    Swati Dhingra quoted on the impact of Brexit and likely effect on migration.

    This interview was broadcast on BBC Asian Network on July 27, 2016
    Link to broadcast here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Farming UK

    Will Brexit hit Northern Ireland farmers hardest?

    Professor Curran said said non-tariff barriers could raise costs for NI farmers by between 2% and 4% and a recent study by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) found that a 2% increase in non-tariff barriers could actually reduce the North's GDP by 1.4% in the long-run. That is if border and custom controls are re-introduced.

    This article was published online by UK Farming on July 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 5

    Radio 5 Live

    Interview with Swati Dhingra on the economic impact of Brexit.

    The interview was broadcast on BBC Radio 5 Live on July 27, 2016
    Link to the programme here

    Related publications
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Irish Examiner

    Northern farmers 'hardest hit' by Brexit fallout

    Professor Michael Curran, an economist at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said that while the UK's decision to leave the EU was ''unambiguously bad'' for Ireland and the UK as a whole, Northern Ireland would be hardest hit. ... Prof Curran also warned that the potential reintroduction of border and custom controls would significantly dent Northern Ireland's GDP: ''Some research has shown... that just these non-tariff barriers could raise costs for NI farmers by between 2% and 4% and a recent study by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) found that a 2% increase in non-tariff barriers could actually reduce [the North's] GDP by 1.4% in the long-run.''

    This article was published online by The Irish Examiner on July 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC News

    Brexit migrant 'spike' warning from MPs

    There could be a spike in UK migration ahead of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and the possible end to free movement rights, MPs have warned.
    Dr Swati Dhingra, from the London School of Economics, told BBC 5 live the rise in the national living wage in the UK might encourage people to travel to the country. She also said if there was a cut-off date ''a lot of people might think, if they want to move to the UK - now is the time''.

    This article was published online by BBC News on July 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Foreign Affairs

    The economic consequences of Brexit: A Conversation with Swati Dhingra

    Before Britons voted to leave the European Union, Swati Dhingra, an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics, wrote a series of papers with her colleagues trying to convince them otherwise by pointing to the economic consequences. Two weeks after the voters chose Brexit, Dhingra spoke with Foreign Affairs deputy managing editor Stuart Reid in London.

    This article was published online by Foreign Affairs on July 26, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 26/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Financial Times

    Ethiopia seen as hottest market for exporters

    Ethiopia is likely to be one of the fastest growing markets for western exporters in the next five years, while erstwhile emerging market heavyweights Brazil and South Africa offer paltry growth. Perhaps less surprisingly, China will continue to be the emerging market with the largest appetite for western imports, even if these fall well below the value of its exports, according to analysis by UniCredit, the Italian bank. Ethiopia, alongside neighbouring Kenya, ''are the two countries that provide the strongest opportunities in Africa, and they are catching up with South Africa,'' says Fadi Hassan, assistant professor of economics at Trinity College, Dublin, and consultant for UniCredit.

    This article was published online by the Financial Times on July 26, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Fadi Hassan webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 26/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    European migrants are not just paying their way, they're paying our way too

    When politicians speak of a need to 'control' EU immigration, we should be asking why. The evidence shows that free movement of people is working for all of us.
    But the available evidence suggests the overall impact of EU migration is beneficial to the UK. EU migrants are more likely to be in work than UK nationals. And, according tot he UCL Centre for REsearch and Analysis of Migration, EU migrants provide a net economic benefit of £22bn. As the LSE Centre for Economic Performance notes, ''this effects may seem small, [but] in the longer-run impact could be substantial''.

    This article was published by The Independent on July 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    i News

    What people get wrong when talking about post-Brexit economics

    Britain's decision to leave the European Union (EU) has prompted international conversation about the economic implications. But widespread interest doesn't mean widespread expertise. Economists tell i about some of the common post-Brexit misconceptions they've heard in the wake of the vote. ... Dr Thomas Sampson, an economics lecturer at the Centre for Economic Performance (LSE) agrees. ''There is no reason to believe you can have access to the single market while restricting migration,'' Dr Sampson tells i.

    This article was published online by i News on July 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Aktuálne.sk (Slovakia)

    United Kingdom in the end: Zavelila for the departure from the EU, in turn, the strategic business of the Kingdom

    ''Brexit makes the UK a less attractive environment for investment, in particular for businesses that rely on the British approach to the single market,'' said economist Thomas Sampson for Mashable. ''Some companies are likely to move some of its activities in continental Europe, though probably not every company that threatens too will really do so.''

    This article was published online by Aktualne.sk (Slovakia) on July 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    TradingFloor.com

    From the floor: sterling on the ropes

    Ahead of the Brexit vote, the great transnational institutions that have come to, if not govern, then certainly guide the post-World War Two order were all out talking apocalypse. Britain will ''almost certainly'' be worse off post-Brexit, said the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and the Centre for Economic Performance in a joint statement. ''A dark star, whose name is Wormwood, will fall to the rivers making the water bitter,'' said another institution whose exact name and acronym we can't recall. In any sense, the official line was Brexit=bad. But in the wake of the vote, it would appear that markets have been able to sustain the impact and are generally keeping calm and carrying on. Did the UK, financial reporters began to wonder in hushed terms, get away with it?

    This article was published online by Trading Floor on July 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Metropolitan myths that led to Brexit

    Finally, there is the low reputation of economists, the result of a global financial crisis that only a few in the profession warned us against. But the institutes that analysed the risks and rewards of Brexit can hardly be blamed for that. The Institute for Fiscal Studies is full of experts on tax and household income; the Centre for Economic Performance studies globalisation, technology and education. Blaming these people for not foreseeing the collapse of Lehman Brothers is like blaming a brain surgeon for the spread of obesity.

    This article was published by the Financial Times on July 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 4

    The Today Programme

    0750 Swati Dhingra interviewed.

    After the UK gives up full membership of the EU's customs union exporters' goods could be facing checks and delays at Britain's border.


    News Posted: 19/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    HIS Fairplay.com

    Uk Chamber of Shipping hears Brexit warning

    The UK Chamber needs to know the details because member shipowners gain their revenue from trade; however, Dr Swati Dhingra, lecturer at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, brought little good cheer. The overwhelming sentiment from economists, she observed, is that Brexit is negative for the country's economy, with forecasts of a decline in the UK's GDP of an optimistic 2% and a pessimistic 8% from current levels by 2030. There will also be a divergence of regulatory policy between the EU and UK, increased levels of border checks, and other unspecified administrative burdens.

    This article was published online by IHS Fairplay.com on July 19, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.02, March 2016
    See Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.2 here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 19/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Admin5.com (China)

    Artificial intelligence is bound to exacerbate inequalities but why are economists still for it platforms

    Artificial intelligence is bound to exacerbate inequalities but why are economists still for it platforms
    That is to say, technical parts of the economy made great contribution to productivity growth. In 2015 a 17-country study found that between 1993 and 2007, average annual GDP growth rate of the robot industry for these countries has contributed 0.4%, this time the national GDP growth rate of more than one-tenth (Graetz and Michaels 2015).

    This article was published online by Admin5.com (China) on July 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    IOL

    Brexit economists say Britain can still benefit

    The economic model used by Professor Minford to deliver his forecasts has been severely criticised by other analysts at the London School of Economics as being built on ideology, rather than facts. They argued, before the referendum result, that it ignored “basic facts” about international trade, such as that countries tend to trade more with geographically close countries and that the EU has created trade, rather than merely diverting it from elsewhere

    This article appeared on IOL on 14 July. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 14/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Business Day Live

    Are economists at fault for Brexit?

    John van Reenen, the outgoing director of the London School of Economics’s Centre for Economic Performance, doesn’t think the profession should be too down on itself. Had economists engaged more "in my frank view, it would not have made a jot of difference".

    This article appeared in Business Day Live on 13 July. Link to article

    Related Links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth webpage
    News Posted: 13/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Huffington Post Canada

    Brexit demonstrates perils of unchecked globalisation

    Various analysis have shown that Brexit will adversely affect Britain's economy. According to the Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, Britain's economy will decrease by 1.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent without considering foreign investment, migration and reduced trade. When the long-run effects of Brexit on productivity are considered, the decline in income is forecast to be between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent. PwC estimates that the decrease will be between 3.0 to 5.5 per cent in 2020. Also, Oxford Economics predicts that it will decrease by 0.1 per cent to 3.9 per cent.

    This article was published online by the Huffington Post Canada on July 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.02, March 2016
    See Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.2 here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    VOX

    The economics of Brexit: Pre-referendum videos and columns on VoxEU.org

    Two weeks ago, UK voters took the most important economic decision in a generation. The factual basis for this decision was - to say the least - not quite up to the nation's highest standards of evidence. ... The fragmented nature of this ''factual basis'' arose despite an impressive, if uncoordinated, effort by the economics profession to study the question. Particularly noteworthy were the various studies by the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance (e.g. Breinlich et al. 2016), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (e.g. Baker et al. 2016), and the Centre for European Reform (e.g. Springford et al. 2016). And of course the Treasury produced several economic studies of the short- and long-run effects, the impact on public finances and on pensions.

    This article was published by the VOX blog on July 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.08, June 2016
    Who Bears the Pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.07, June 2016
    The complete set of papers published in the CEP Brexit Analysis Series can be seen herer

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Scotsman

    Bill Jamieson: Secret report makes you choke on the canapes

    For example, I have obtained an internal Scottish Enterprise document circulated last week among senior managers declaring the consequences of Brexit for the Scottish manufacturing sector ''to be overwhelmingly negative''. The 15-page analysis, which is not intended for publication, sets out a wide range of political outcomes. It is a deeply depressing document. ...
    The SE paper carries an estimate from the Centre for Economic Performance that under the ''optimistic'' Norway model and the ''pessimistic'' WTO, ''trade will be negatively impacted by Brexit in both the short and long term''. It also quotes from a PwC study commissioned by the CBI projecting a decline in GDP per capita of up to 2.7 per cent by 2030.

    This article was published by The Scotsman on July 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.4, April 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    greenreport.it (Italy)

    Brexit, cause e conseguenze demografiche viste dall'Italia

    Confusion reigns
    ... belonging to Europe forced Britain to accept internal migratory movements, students, workers, entrepreneurs, family. Between 1995 and 2015, the number of foreigners from other EU countries increased from 0.9 to 3.3 million; at the latter date, 29 percent were Polish, 13 percent Irish, and then with decreasing rates from 7 to 5 percent, Lithuanians, Romanians, Italians, Portuguese, French, German and Spanish. ... the educational level is higher on average. The immigration of Europeans has made a leap in 2004 (with the arrival in Europe of 10 new countries, including Poland), followed by a decline with the onset of the crisis in 2007.

    This article published by greenreport.it (Italy) on July 6, 2016 cites research by the Centre for Economic Performance
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, June 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 06/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CMI (Chartered Management Institute)

    Apprenticeships: The industrious revolution

    A new breed of apprenticeship is offering employers a way to accelerate and keep top talent
    Petra Wilton, CMI's director of strategy and external affairs, says the degree apprenticeships will help to meet expected demand for one million more managers by 2020 and raise professional skills. CMI says four out of five UK bosses are 'accidental managers', who are promoted on the basis of their expertise in their job, but have little training in managing a team or a department. ''This programme is, for the first time, giving funding and legitimacy to driving high-level skills and linking it to professional registration and recognition,'' Wilton says. ''It's a transformational step for the government to recognise this across a broader range of disciplines.'' CMI also hopes to introduce a Masters Degree Apprenticeship (level 7) and programmes at level 3 (team leader) and level 5 (operations manager). Wilton sees weaknesses in leadership and management as a factor behind the UK's poor productivity performance. A team of academics including John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, interviewed 14,000 employees around the world and found that British workers rated their supervisors lower than those in countries such as the US, Germany and Japan.

    This article was published by CMI (Chartered Management Institute) on July 5, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Management Practices and Organisational Structures Research webpage


    News Posted: 05/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    World Folio Blog

    BREXIT: Regional integration and preventing the next Italeave and Fradieu

    International organizations like IMF and the OECD along local English institutions such as the Bank of England, the British Treasury, and the Center for Economic Performance have issued separate reports on the downside of separation, agreeing on the fact that leaving the EU would be an economic net negative for the UK and would immerse the country in an immediate recession.

    This article appeared in World Folio Blog on 5 July 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 05/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Daily Telegraph

    Take the path to healthy weight loss

    Another from the London School of Economics found that people who regularly walked briskly for half an hour or more had smaller waists than those who went to the gym or did tougher sports such as jogging and rugby.

    This article appeared in the Daily Telegraph on 4 July 2016 Link to article

    Related Links
    Grace Lordan webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage
    News Posted: 04/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World Service

    The Road to Brexit, In the Balance

    Thomas Sampson, economist at the London school of economics, joins a panel discussion

    This programme was broadcast on BBC World Service on 2 July 2016. Link

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related Links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World Service

    The Road to Brexit, In the Balance

    Thomas Sampson, economist at the London school of economics, joins a panel discussion

    This programme was broadcast on BBC World Service on 2 July 2016. Link

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related Links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Royal Economic Society Newsletter

    Conference Report 2016

    The Society's Annual Conference was held at the University of Sussex, 21-23 March. This report was prepared by Ferdinando Giugliano, focusing on four fields of economic research: development economics; political economy; labour economics and macroeconomics.
    Development Economics
    In a separate session, there was one other interesting piece of work on development economics. A paper by Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei (both Queen Mary, University of London) looked at the role played by mobile phones in protests in Africa. It tests the widely-held hypothesis that mobile phones have acted as 'liberation technology', helping citizens who are dissatisfied with their governments to mobilise against them. The two authors find that on average mobile phone coverage does not lead to more protests. However, during a downturn, the spread of mobile phones is associated with more episodes of organised political discontent. One hypothesis is that portable devices make individuals better informed about the state of the economy. Technology may therefore allow the channelling of discontent when this is caused by some external factor, such as a recession.
    Political Economy
    John Van Reenen and Swati Dhingra (both LSE) presented a study from the Centre for Economic Performance looking at the costs of Brexit. They found that this could be between 1.3 per cent and 2.6 per cent of gross domestic product just from a simple static model that only looks at trade. However, the cost could rise to between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent of GDP if the dynamic, long-term losses are included. While these estimates are obviously imperfect, their central finding that Britain would suffer non-trivial losses in case of exit appears hard to rebut.
    Labour Economics
    Stephen Machin (UCL, LSE) showed that in the UK the minimum wage has gone up since its introduction in 1999 by more than the average wage. Still, this increase has had no significant detrimental effects on employment. However, the introduction of the new 'living wage' announced by George Osborne this year poses significant challenges. The new minimum wage will be set at £7.20 an hour this year and will rise to £9 an hour by 2020, lifting the coverage of the living wage substantially. The question is therefore whether this new, higher, floor will have significant effects on employment and profits. The Office for Budget Responsibility only forecasts a reduction of around 60,000 jobs. Conversely, the value of shares of low-wage companies fell rather significantly on the day of Osborne's announcement, offering provisional evidence that profits may fall in the future. Machin has looked at the company accounts published since the announcement finding that, indeed, most companies plan to take a hit on profits. However, there may still be an adjustment in terms of employment for those companies that earn little or no profits at all, for example, care homes.

    This Conference Report was published by The Royal Economic Society in its July Newsletter
    Link to the Report here

    Related publications
    Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa, Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1419, March 2016
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.08, June 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Marco Manacorda webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Internazionale

    Come cambiano le regole per gli immigrati dopo la Brexit

    For many it is a windfall: according to the research of the Centre for Economic Performance, a research centre, EU migrants are more likely, compared to the local population, to have received a university education or to have a job, and you are less likely to require public subsidies.

    This article was published online by Internazionale (Italy) on July 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Finyear (France)

    Brexit: quelles consequences pour les entreprises francaises?

    Customs return seems unlikely, according to a recent study (November 2015) of the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics who bet on the establishment of a free trade agreement. ''However, an increase in the costs of at least 2 per cent trade appears inevitable, due to non-tariff barriers. However, if tariffs were to be reinstated, some French, but few companies could be tempted to settle locally in order to propose the ''Made in Britain'' and thus circumvent these fees. But the main consequence of the Brexit in the longer term, will be the weakening of the local market, ''estimated at 6 per cent by 2030 by the British Treasury''. Consequence: the French companies could revise downward their inclinations to anchor in this market. ''The final impact will depend on the decision of whether to maintain trade preferences between the continent and the United Kingdom, despite an exit from the EU'' concluded the study.

    This article was published online by Finyear (France) on June 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Canadian Press (French Edition) online

    Un vote pour la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l'UE aurait plusieurs conséquences

    But the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics sees lasting consequences: the separation of the United Kingdom would without a doubt have a negative impact on foreign direct investment, who themselves have effects on wages and productivity of the country. ''The United Kingdom would be permanently poorer if we were to leave the European Union'', says the report of the British Treasury.

    This article was published online by the Canadian Press (French edition) online, on June 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Christian Science Monitor

    Why Brexit vote prompted Vodafone to contemplate leaving Britain

    Less than a week after Briton's voted to exit the EU, the worlds second largest telecom company [Vodafone] has announced it is considering moving its headquarters from London to mainland Europe.
    Vodafone's warning could perhaps foreshadow a possible shift in jobs and investments from Britain to the rest of the EU. ''It will be more a movement on the margins than big, discreet changes,'' Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics (LSE) who specializes in international trade, growth, and development, tells The Christian Science Monitor a phone interview. ''We might see some companies like Vodafone relocating their headquarters. We might see others investing less in the UK,'' he adds, mentioning, as an example, a financial firm relocating jobs from London to Paris, Frankfurt, or other cities in the Eurozone.
    ''The UK [labor] market is highly dynamic and would adjust to these changed trade arrangements quickly,'' writes Ryan Bourne, the head of public policy at the London-based Institute of Economic Affairs think tank ...
    Swati Dhingra, Mr. Sampson's colleague and a lecturer at the London School of Economics, disagrees, telling the Monitor that Vodafone's concerns are symbolic of a larger trend. ''It says even service trade companies, or companies that we think of as advanced manufacturers, are the ones moving their headquarters somewhere else,'' she says in a phone interview Wednesday. ''That is the real concern for the UK. It's not bad jobs moving away. It's good jobs potentially moving away.''

    This article was published online by The Christian Science Monitor on June 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03, April 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03
    See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Quartz

    Charts: Half of the UK's foreign investment comes from the countries it just snubbed

    In the meantime, things look pretty bleak. Earlier this year a team from the London School of Economics estimated that leaving the EU will lead to a 22% decline in investment from abroad. (Other studies have projected both better and worse outcomes.) The supporting research focuses on the impact of leaving on the automobile manufacturing and financial industries.

    This article appeared on quartz on 29 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 29/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Quartz

    Charts: Half of the UK's foreign investment comes from the countries it just snubbed

    In the meantime, things look pretty bleak. Earlier this year a team from the London School of Economics estimated that leaving the EU will lead to a 22% decline in investment from abroad. (Other studies have projected both better and worse outcomes.) The supporting research focuses on the impact of leaving on the automobile manufacturing and financial industries.

    This article appeared on quartz on 29 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 29/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Dagens Industri (Sweden)

    Ekonomiprofessor räknar med fortsatt fall

    ...resultatet av folkomrostningen. Gianluca Benigno, ekonomiprofessor vid London School of Economics, sager att han forst...
    ...the result of the referendum. Gianluca Benigno, economics professor at the London School of Economics, says that he first...

    This article was published online by Dagens Industri (Sweden) on June 28, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related Links
    Gianluca Benigno webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Politico.eu

    'A midsummer night's nightmare' for European trade

    UK's EU exit will make transatlantic trade talks even tougher.
    ''There's every reason to believe that the right-wing lurch of Brexit could turn the U.K. into a paradise for free market capitalism: a TTIP on steroids,'' said Nick Dearden, the director of Global Justice Now. ...
    Swati Dhingra, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics, said such fears are not unwarranted. ''During a trade negotiation, when a smaller country negotiates with a bigger one, in this case the largest in the world, it often ends up conceding much more than it wants in order to be granted market access.''

    This article was published online by Politico.eu on June 28, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.02, March 2016
    To view all of the CEP Brexit Analysis Series, see here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    9 News

    'Brexit' is here: What happens next

    The United Kingdom voted Thursday for a British exit — or "Brexit" — from the European Union. What happens now is "a leap into the unknown," according to a report on "Life After Brexit" by the London School of Economics

    This article appeared on 9 News on 28 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Yahoo! Finance

    This is why Brexit will be a nightmare for the UK

    This arrangement “would not generate substantial fiscal savings for the UK government,” according to a recent analysis by the London School of Economics and Political Science.

    This article appeared on Yahoo! Finance on 28 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Eurasia Review

    What now for Britain and EU? - Analysis

    The Prime Minister must now be regretting including the in/out referendum in his earlier election manifesto pledges to win over the far-right votes. Not taking lessons from the close call in the Scottish referendum, he gambled with the future of the country and lost, announcing he will step down. The public in the meantime were bombarded with polls and predictions of varying degrees of reliability. In a final attempt to highlight the economic dangers of Brexit, three top institutions - the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Centre for Economic Performance - released a joint statement on 21 June warning: ''A vote to leave the EU would almost certainly make us financially worse off compared with staying in the EU, quite possibly by a substantial amount.'' It seems that the majority of the British public chose to ignore the almost unanimous expert advice, with the belief that the UK can go it alone successfully, in a vote that truly went against the establishment.

    This article was published online by Eurasia Review on June 28, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Eurasia Review

    What now for Britain and EU? - Analysis

    The Prime Minister must now be regretting including the in/out referendum in his earlier election manifesto pledges to win over the far-right votes. Not taking lessons from the close call in the Scottish referendum, he gambled with the future of the country and lost, announcing he will step down. The public in the meantime were bombarded with polls and predictions of varying degrees of reliability. In a final attempt to highlight the economic dangers of Brexit, three top institutions - the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Centre for Economic Performance - released a joint statement on 21 June warning: ''A vote to leave the EU would almost certainly make us financially worse off compared with staying in the EU, quite possibly by a substantial amount.'' It seems that the majority of the British public chose to ignore the almost unanimous expert advice, with the belief that the UK can go it alone successfully, in a vote that truly went against the establishment.

    This article was published online by Eurasia Review on June 28, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox.eu

    Italy's productivity conundrum: The role of resource misallocation

    Many advanced economies have experienced a productivity slowdown in recent years. Italy, however, has been experiencing such a slowdown since the mid-1990s. This column provides a detailed analysis of Italy’s patterns of misallocation over this period. Firms in the Northern regions, as well as large firms, have experienced the sharpest increase in resource misallocation. To tackle the resulting productivity slowdown, reforms need to address unemployment benefits and higher education, as well as encouraging investment in intangible assets.

    This article appeared on Vox.eu on 28 June 2016 Link to article

    Related Links
    Fadi Hassan webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World News

    BBC Business Live

    Thomas Sampson discusses UK’s options for trade and access to single market.

    This programme was broadcast on BBC World News on 28 June 2016. Link

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related Links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World Service

    Swati Dhingra interview

    Swati Dhingra discusses fall in Sterling, drop in GDP and recruitment freeze among companies as a result of Brexit

    This interview was broadcast on BBC World Service on 28 June 2016. Link

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Global Times

    China least affected by Brexit fallout

    Bai's opinion was echoed by Gianmarco Ottaviano, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, who expects Chinese enterprises to transfer some of their investments from the UK to EU countries in the wake of the UK vote, according to domestic news portal hexun.com, citing the BBC.

    This article appeared in the Global Times on 28 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related Links
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Huffinton Post - Korea

    Brexit will show what we have on the sheet

    British unemployment shows the transition graph of the influx immigrants. 2005-2010 immigrant unemployment rate is rapidly increased rather than fell. ©Jonathan Wadsworth, Center for Economic Performance. [Text with Figure 4: Unemployment of UK-born and EU immigration, 1975-2015, from CEP Brexit Analysis, Paper No.5, May 2016.]

    This article was published online by The Huffington Post - Korea on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Conversation

    Don't believe the Brexit prophecies of economic doom

    We were told that the consensus of economic experts were overwhelmingly opposed to a Brexit. Lauded institutions - from the IMF, OECD to the Treasury and London School of Economics - produced damning forecasts that ranged from economic hardship to total disaster if the UK leaves the EU.

    This article was published online by The Conversation on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Politico.eu

    ‘A midsummer night's nightmare' for European trade

    Swati Dhingra, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics, said such fears are not unwarranted. “During a trade negotiation, when a smaller country negotiates with a bigger one, in this case the largest in the world, it often ends up conceding much more than it wants in order to be granted market access.”

    This article appeared in Politico.eu on 27 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here .

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    News GD.com

    China least affected by Brexit fallout

    Bai's opinion was echoed by Gianmarco Ottaviano, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, who expects Chinese enterprises to transfer some of their investments from the UK to EU countries in the wake of the UK vote, according to domestic news portal hexun.com, citing the BBC.

    This article appeared on News GD.com on 27 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here .

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    FT.com

    UK Economy: Brexit in seven charts - the economic impact

    Millions of words on the topic - including economists' majority view that leaving the bloc will slow growth and the Leave campaign's counterarguments that Britain will prosper - could be replaced by seven charts. These sum up the arguments over what breaking up with Brussels will really mean for jobs, growth and public finances.

    Do migrants reduce UK wages?
    The chart [chart sourced from the CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05] shows the change in the share of EU immigrants for every local area in the UK (left to right) and the change in local wage levels (up and down). There is no correlation, indicating that areas with high levels of immigration do not have lower wage growth. There is no indication that immigration reduces wages.

    This article was published by FT.com on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See Figure 9 on page 10 for sourced chart.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    What happens to EU migrants in Britain

    ''IMMIGRATION, immigration, immigration'', shouted a headline in the Sun, a right-wing tabloid newspaper, the week that Britain voted to leave the European Union. It followed weeks of campaigning from the Leave side assuring voters that they would ''take back control'' and restrict EU migration if Britain left the club. Now that the referendum has just been won in favour of Brexit, what will happen to the EU migrants currently in Britain - and to British nationals living in the EU? Some 3m EU nationals live in Britain, compared with 1.2m Britons who live on the continent. The volume of EU migrants coming to Britain has increased since the club was expanded in 2004. Last year net migration from the EU was at a historic high, mostly because fewer Brits were moving abroad. Many consider this a boon: according to research from the Centre for Economic Performance, a think-tank, EU migrants are more likely to be university-educated, less likely to claim benefits and more likely to be in a job than the native-born population.

    This article was published online by the Economist on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 4

    Swati Dhingra interview

    Dr Swati Dhingra discusses Brexit economic impact to households

    This programme was broadcast on 26 June 2016. Link

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here .

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 26/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Belfast Telegraph

    EU Referendum: Northern Ireland household budgets likely to be hit by rise in food prices and higher taxation

    However, the London School of Economics expects the economy to be smaller by between 6.3% and 9.5% than if we stayed a member of the EU.

    This article appeared in the Belfast Telegraph on 26 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 26/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Belfast Telegraph

    EU Referendum: Northern Ireland household budgets likely to be hit by rise in food prices and higher taxation

    However, the London School of Economics expects the economy to be smaller by between 6.3% and 9.5% than if we stayed a member of the EU.

    This article appeared in the Belfast Telegraph on 26 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 26/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World Service - In the Balance

    UK votes to leave EU

    What does the UK's decision to leave the European Union mean for the future of the single market? Economists talk of sustained market turbulence, devaluations and an imminent recession, but will it be Britain or the EU suffering the worst effects long-term? And as eurosceptic political parties across the continent are buoyed by the UK's vote and call for their own referendums, what must the EU project itself do to survive? Ed Butler is joined by three guests from across the EU: Damien Lempereur from Debout La France, a political party which wants a French exit from the EU; Jens Zimmerman, a member of Germany's Social Democratic Party and part of Angela Merkels coalition government; and Swati Dhingra, from the London School of Economics.

    This programme was broadcast on the BBC World Service Radio - In the Balance programme on June 26, 2016
    Link to broadcast here [Swati Dhingra brought in to the interview 08:37]

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 26/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    PBS NewsHour

    What Brexit might do to the British economy

    Now that the UK has voted to leave the EU, one of the biggest remaining questions is how it will affect the British economy. Hari Sreenivasan sits down with London School of Economics professor Swati Dhingra, who has been studying the potential effects since the referendum was announced last year, to discuss.

    This interview was broadcast by PBS NewsHour (United States) on June 25, 2016
    Link to broadcast on YouTube here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.01, February 2016
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 25/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    politics.co.uk

    No more excuses: stand up for immigrants

    Labour MPs now walk around saying that immigration reduces domestic wages, that the rich man has got a cheaper plumber, but the indigenous plumber has had to reduce his fees. Usually this argument is framed as an assault on the 'white working class', as if we don't have any black or Indian or Pakistani or Bangladeshi working class people in this country. Well that's a lie too. We have no idea if immigration reduces wages and in fact many studies show it does the precise opposite. PwC research suggests it raises the median income by 0.7%. LSE found areas with high immigration did not have lower wage growth.

    This article was published online by politics.co.uk on June 25, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related news article
    EU migrants have no negative effect on UK wages, says LSE’, The Guardian, 11 May 2016

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 25/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Daily Dot

    Brits are Googling 'what happens if we leave the EU?' one day after voting to do exactly that

    Last night, as it became clear that Britain had voted to exit the European Union, Google Trends reported a 250 percent spike in searches for ''what happens if we leave the EU?''
    Markets are crashing around the world, Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned, and things have become uncertain for immigrants to the U.K. and U.K. citizens living abroad in the EU. And Scotland will likely take this opportunity to reconsider that whole independence question. How come nobody predicted this?
    Oh, wait, everybody predicted this.
    ''It's likely that Brexit (and what an ugly neologism it is) would lead to plummeting stock markets and an economic recession, with losses to GDP calculated by the Centre for Economic Performance at up to 9.5% - worse than the 2008 financial crisis,'' wrote Alex Preston in Guardian, more than a year ago. The article was headlined ''What would happen if Britain left the EU?'' and is one of the top Google results for the question.

    This article was published online by the Daily Dot on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LiveMint.com

    Time to clear Brexit's poisonous air

    According to an analysis, Brexit and the impact on immigration, published by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, EU immigrants are ''more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education, compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About one-third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born''.

    This article was published online by LiveMint.com on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    La Izquierda Diario (Spanish)

    El Brexit, mala noticia para el segundo semestre

    First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to investment by the immediate context of uncertainty generated by the Brexit.

    This article was published online by La Izquierda Diario (Spain) on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    La Izquierda Diario (Spanish)

    El Brexit, mala noticia para el segundo semestre

    First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to investment by the immediate context of uncertainty generated by the Brexit.

    This article was published online by La Izquierda Diario (Spain) on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Forbes Online

    The UK ditches the Establishment and come November we might too

    The parallels between Brexit backers and Trumps supporters is clear. Trump's campaign targets manufacturing towns across America, frequently expressing the need to reject globalism and put ''America first''. In Britain, there has been similar talk of finally putting the UK ahead of Europe from the Leave campaign. Both Trump's campaign and the Leave campaign promote economic protectionism and rile up fears of an immigrant invasion that would take away jobs and lead to freeloading off the social services system. It follows that it looks like citizens in the UK were willing to damage their economic stability in exchange for protectionist policies and more sovereignty. The Centre for Economic Performance analysis of Brexit predicts a 1.3%-2.6% fall in the average UK income, with the overall GDP dropping £26 to 55 billion.

    This article was published online by Forbes on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    GoodtoKnow

    What leaving the EU could mean for you and your family

    ''You're going to see in increase in consumer prices from Brexit and most of that is going to hit the middle income,'' Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at LSE's Department of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance told Mashable. According to the Independent, initially the rises would be mostly hit imported goods - food and clothes being the most obvious - ''but inflation has a tendency to spread and to gain its own momentum,'' meaning overall costs on all of your purchases could go up.

    This article was published online by GoodtoKnow on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Investors Chronicle

    Equities after Brexit

    Whenever share prices fall significantly investors should ask: is this because future dividends will be lower, or is it because risk aversion has increased?
    ... So, which of these explanations applies to the post-Brexit drop in UK shares? We have two reasons to hope the fall is temporary. One is simply that prices have fallen so far. As I write, the FTSE 250 is down by ten per cent since Thursday: this is a better gauge of domestically-oriented share prices than the FTSE 100, which is dominated by multinationals some of which have little exposure to the UK economy. This is greater than even the most pessimistic economists' assessment of the long-term impact of Brexit upon GDP - the Centre for Economic Performance's estimate of a nine per cent hit. (Most economists estimate the impact will be only around half this: the NIESR, for example, puts this cost at 2.7-3.7 per cent.)

    This article was published online by Investors Chronicle on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Le Monde

    Economie: Le revenue des plus pauvres des Britanniques pourrait perdre 12,5%

    Thomas Sampson, economiste a la London School of Economics, est coauteur d'une etude sur le cout du Brexit pour les menages britanniques.
    Thomas Sampson answers questions on the possible consequences of a vote for Brexit, put to him by the French Newspaper Le Monde.

    This article was published online by Le Monde - Economie - on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.08, June 2016

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BT.com

    Brexit: what's going to happen to our money now we're leaving the EU?

    Minford said that the economy would be more dynamic and more efficient now that we're out of the EU. Swati Dhingra disagreed, saying that the economy would suffer because of a shallower pool of talent from other EU countries. ''People come here young and able to work'', she said. Contrary to the red tape rhetoric, Dhingra says that Britain is one of the most regulation-free markets in the world - right up there with the USA and Canada.

    This article was published online by BT.com on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.01, February 2016
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Good to Know

    What leaving the EU could mean for you and your family

    'You're going to see in increase in consumer prices from Brexit and most of that is going to hit the middle income,' Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at LSE's Department of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance told Mashable.

    This article appeared on Good to Know on 24 June 2016 Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LoveMoney.com

    EU Referendum 2016: What will happen to your money now we've voted to Brexit?

    So we've decided to take a leap and vote to leave the EU. What is it going to mean for you and your money? We've voted. The decision has been made. We're out of the European Union, in a move that has triggered the Prime Minister's resignation. Where do we go from here? Both the Leave and Remain campaigns were very vocal about what would happen if we left the EU. Here's a look at what has already happened this morning, and what might lie ahead for your finances. ...
    Economists for Brexit's Patrick Minford said that Remainers were thinking about the departure in the wrong way: ''Osborne has false assumptions about what Brexit would be, condemning us to less free trade than we have at the moment,'' he said in the build-up to the referendum. ''EU firms will not like us leaving and selling into a market which is more competitive. It's time for our industries to adjust.'' Minford said that the economy would be more dynamic and more efficient now that we're out of the EU. Swati Dhingra disagreed, saying that the economy would suffer because of a shallower pool of talent from other EU countries. ''People come here young and able to work,'' she said. Contrary to the red tape rhetoric, Dhingra says that Britain is one of the most regulation-free markets in the world - right up there with the USA and Canada.

    This article was published online by LoveMoney.com on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    TRT World (Turkish News Channel_

    Britain votes to leave EU in historic referendum

    Dennis Novy interviewed by Turkish TV News Channel, discussing the economic impact for the UK of the Brexit vote.

    This interview was broadcast by TRT World (Turkey) TV on June 24, 2016
    Link to the broadcast here

    See interviews also shown on:
    ANN7 (South African TV station): live phone interview
    Sky News Arabia

    Related links
    Dennis Novy webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    negocios (Portugal)

    Swati Dhingra: 'A Europa nao interessa um bom acordo com o Reino Unido em caso de Brexit'

    Swati Dhingra: ''Europe doesn't matter a good deal with the United Kingdom in the case of Brexit''
    The British economy will go down between 1.4% and 2.6% in pessimistic scenario. And life won't be made easier with having to negotiate an agreement with the European Union, says the Business Professor at LSE.

    This article was published by negocios (Portugal) on June 23, 2016
    Link to the article here

    Related publications
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Versus

    Brexit: comunque vada, l'incertezza e l'unica certezza

    Brexit: whatever happens, uncertainty is the only certainty
    Il LSE Centre for Economic Performance ha esaminato l'analisi economica del prof. Patrick Minford, celebre economista pro-Brexit, e l'ha bocciata senza appello. Riporto qui due commenti ben poco lusinghieri tratti dalla critica al lavoro di Minford pubblicata dal LSE Centre.
    The LSE Centre for Economic Performance, examined the economic analysis of prof. Patrick Minford, famous economist pro-Brexit, and he rejected without appeal.

    This article was published online by Versus on June 14, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The New York Times

    Turbulence and uncertainty for the market after 'Brexit'

    Few expect that Britain's departure from Europe will set off a full financial crisis like the one seen after the collapse of the investment banking giant Lehman Brothers in 2008. ... If no deal is struck, the rules of the World Trade Organization could apply. They give member nations the rights to impose potentially steep tariffs on imports, raising the possibility of a tit-for-tat trade skirmish between Britain and the Continent. In the meantime, the lack of clarity is likely to damage economic growth in Britain and beyond. ''You get a rabbit-in-the-headlights phenomenon where businesses don't want to make new decisions, or new investments, because they are uncertain about the future,'' said John Van Reenen, director of the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. ''The immediate effect will be a lowering of investment activity, a lowering of hiring. There will an immediate slowdown of growth.''

    This article was published by The New York Times on June 23, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    RadioLIVE

    Brits vote on the Brexit tonight, polls have the result 'too close to call'

    Paul Henry talks with Adam Drummond, Opinium research manager, followed by Swati Dhingra, lecturer at the London School of Economics, on the Brexit. How are the polls looking, and what economical fallout could face the UK if Britain leaves the EU?

    This broadcast was made by RadioLive (New Zealand) on June 23, 2016
    Link to video broadcast here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    ABC News (Australia)

    Brexit would mean a UK recession, London School of Economics report finds

    Research by the London School of Economics in the report ''Life After Brexit'' is warning Britain would most likely fall into recession if it leaves, as a myriad of agreements unravel over several years. French launch #Operationcroissant Parisians arrive in London, bearing croissants and love letters to convince their neighbours to stay in the EU. The co-author of the report, Professor Swati Dhingra, was the latest to agree with warnings from the British Treasury that a Leave vote would be a shock to the UK economy and rattle global financial markets.

    This article was published online by ABC News (Australia) on June 23, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after BREXIT: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    View the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis Papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    FT.com

    EU Referendum: economic message lost on voters

    By the end of the campaign, the heads of Britain's most respected economic think-tanks issued a joint statement, so worried were they that the message had failed to connect. Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Jagjit Chadha, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and John van Reenen, head of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said Brexit would ''almost certainly make us financially worse off compared with staying in the EU, quite possibly by a substantial amount''.

    This article was published online by FT.com on June 23, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Financial Buzz

    What are Brexit's real impacts?

    The whole world is eager to know the result of Brexit poll on Thursday. The result could have far economic consequences for the EU and the rest of the world. The greater consequences are more subtle, gradual, and global. Brexit would be the postwar of decades against global integration. This consensus is boosting protectionism and anti-immigrant world-wide. The uncertainties would slow down global growth clouded by aging populations and inefficient productivity. Although the supporters on Brexit say EU integration improves the incomes only for elites, every skilled worker is also a consumer and, therefore, benefits the whole British economy by making products better and cheaper to compete in the world market. As for the immigration policy, it's probably a plus as well. EU immigrants to Britain are better educated and diligent compared to UK-born workers, and immigrants normally pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits, according to The Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

    This article was published online by Financial Buzz on June 23, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis No.05, May 2016
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CTV News Channel (Canada)

    Assessing Economic Impact of 'Brexit': EU Referendum in Britain Today

    Dennis Novy interviewed on live programme broadcast by Canadian TV news channel, focusing on the economic impact of a Brexit vote.

    This interview was broadcast by CTV News (Canada) on June 23, 2016
    Link to broadcast here Also interviewed by:
    Sky News Arabia
    Al Jazeera (live TV coverage throughout the night)

    Related links
    Dennis Novy webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Morning Star

    Brexit Watch: Cameron Pleads With Older Voters In Final Remain Push

    Meanwhile, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Centre for Economic Performance issued a final joint warning that Britain will ''almost certainly'' be worse off outside the EU. The group said no economic question in their respective lifetimes had ever been subject to such blanket agreement among experts. The trio said ''almost all of those who have looked seriously at this issue'' were forecasting lower real wages, high prices for goods and services, higher borrowing costs and higher unemployment under a Brexit scenario.

    This article was published online by The Morning Star on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Snopes.com

    Impending Brexit vote to shape Britain's future

    If Brexit passes, Britain will change considerably: border controls may be enacted for Northern Ireland for the first time in nearly a century, immigration to the UK would be sharply curtailed, and Britain's economic structure would cease to be intertwined with the rest of EU member countries. Those who are for Brexit say that's important, because EU membership has so diluted British sovereignty and power. Those who are against it (or pro-Bremain) say that it's important to stay as a member of the European economic community. As the London School of Economics and Political Science noted, the UK would still have to deal with the rest of Europe, even if it left the EU.

    This article was published online by Snopes.com on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

    Foreign investment brings many benefits to the UK, including higher pay and productivity. But a Brexit vote could end it all, write Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. First, not being in the single market will make the UK a less attractive export platform; second, multinationals have complex supply chains and costs which would be more difficult to manage if the UK left the EU; third, the uncertainty over the UK's trade arrangements after a Brexit will decrease its appeal.

    This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03, April 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03
    See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Quartz

    A London without immigrants would not be London

    There is little evidence to support the former. Roughly 2.2 million EU nationals work in the UK, comprising 6.6% of the workforce, according to the FT report. Another report from the London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance found that while EU migration has increased and a third of EU migrants live in London, ''areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers.'' Indeed, the authors noted that ''immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities.'' To assume otherwise is ''lump of labour fallacy'', the idea that the number of jobs in an area is fixed and immigrants push other job seekers out.

    This article was published online by Quartz on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    TXFNews (Trade and Export Finance)

    How would Brexit affect UK trade?

    The UK Treasury's estimate forecasts trade volumes declining by between 14% and 19% by 2030 in comparison to their current trajectory, on the assumption that the UK agrees a bilateral trade deal with the EU similar to that recently agreed by Canada. Although, some believe this forecast a tad severe: Oxford Economics modelled the same scenario and came up with a 7% fall in volumes. The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance predicts that, in the long term, lower trade with the EU could cost the UK as much as 9.5% of GDP.

    This article was published online by TXFNews on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    ProActiveInvestors

    10 ways Brexit will impact UK business

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Centre for Economic Performance have all predicted lower real wages in the event of Brexit, higher prices for goods and services, higher unemployment and higher borrowing costs. ''In our lifetimes we have never seen such a degree of unanimity among economists on a major policy issue'', the directors of the three institutions said in a joint statement released today.

    This article was published online by ProActiveInvestor on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Belfast Telegraph

    EU referendum: Think tanks unite to warn Brexit would damage UK

    A Leave vote in tomorrow's referendum would ''almost certainly make us financially worse off'' and could cut the UKs GDP by up to 8% - equivalent to £5,760 for every household in the country - a group of respected economic think tanks has warned.
    In a joint statement, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and the Centre for Economic Performance said ''almost all those who have looked seriously'' at the consequences of Brexit agreed it would be highly likely to harm the UK's living standards.

    This article was published online by the Belfast Telegraph on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Mail Online

    Michael Gove makes grovelling apology for comparing pro-EU experts to Nazi propagandists after Cameron accuses him of having 'lost it' during referendum battle

    In a dramatic escalation of Tory infighting earlier, Mr Cameron told Sky News: 'To hear the Leave campaign today sort of comparing independent experts and economists to Nazi sympathisers - I think they have rather lost it. 'These people are independent - economists who have won Nobel prizes, business leaders responsible for creating thousands of jobs, institutions that were set up after the war to try to provide independent advice. It is right to listen.' In a joint statement, three respected economic think-tanks have said 'almost all those who have looked seriously' at the consequences of Brexit agreed it would be highly likely to harm the living standards of UK households. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) said: 'In our lifetimes we have never seen such a degree of unanimity among economists on a major policy issue.'

    This article was published by The Mail Online on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Juice Brighton (Radio) - News P.M.

    Gove has 'lost it' over Nazi comparisons

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) ...

    This article was published online by Juice Brighton (Radio) on June 22, 2016
    Link to broadcast here

    Related publications

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Saul Estrin webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    New Statesman

    Never mind a Brexit recession, Leave voters don't believe in climate change

    Facts appear not to be a major priority for many Leave voters. That is clear when you look at science. In a ComRes poll of 1,616 prospective voters, Leave supporters were revealed to be much more likely to question science, climate change and evolution. ... Drawing the line directly from science to the uncomfortable referendum debate we find ourselves in may not be clear cut. But the case of NHS statistics show the way people choose to judge - or not to judge - facts has everything to do with the referendum debate. After all, there is overwhelming consensus of the damage Britain could do to its economy by leaving the EU. There is evidence from the Bank of England, HM Treasury, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, PwC, Oxford Economics, the Centre for Economic Performance and others.

    This article was published online by the New Statesman on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Saul Estrin webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Wall Street Journal

    Brexit's real impact would be gradual and global

    The Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics finds that EU immigrants to Britain are better educated and more likely to ...

    This article was published online by The Wall Street Journal on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here [Subscription needed to access full article.]

    Also in
    The Australian
    Brexit's real impact would be gradual and global

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis No.05, May 2016
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The UK in a changing Europe (YouTube Channel)

    The Norway Option

    Dr Swati Dhingra from the Centre for Economic Performance's Trade Programme video on the possible regulatory autonomy and alternatives to EU membership. Filmed as part of a panel discussion - The EU and the UK: 'the wrong kind of regulation?'. Dr Dhingra was a discussant with Panel 4 speaking on 'National sovereignty and EU regulations: better in or out?'. Her talk was titled 'Trading options for the UK outside the EU'.

    The film was made as part of 'The UK in a Changing Europe' series available on YouTube from June 21, 2016
    View the video here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Daily Mirror

    Brexit 'would cost Brits £580 a year as price of food, drink, petrol and clothing rocket'

    The heads of three leading economic think-tanks warned of the dire consequences of leaving the EU. The analysis by National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit would shrink the economy by between 1% and 3% by 2020 and between 2% and 8% smaller by 2030.

    This article was published online by The Daily Mirror on June 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related articles
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Policy Forum.net

    Counting the cost of Brexit

    The economic impacts of Britain leaving the EU
    With the referendum fast approaching, Thomas Sampson analyses the economic consequences should Britain vote to leave the European Union.
    Proponents of Brexit, as leaving the EU has been termed, argue that having to make policies jointly with other EU members reduces the UK's sovereignty and that European institutions are less accountable to voters than the UK government. Widespread concern at high levels of immigration from other EU countries has also fuelled support for Brexit. By contrast, the Remain campaign has focused on the economic benefits from being part of the European Single Market and the fact that big global challenges such as climate change and terrorism cannot be solved by nations acting alone.

    The article was published online by the Policy Forum on June 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    EU referendum: polls suggest Brexit chances are split 50-50, says expert

    As the rival campaigns entered the final straight, independent economists from three of Britain's leading institutions issued a final warning that a vote for Brexit would hit wages and lead to higher retail prices and borrowing costs. In a joint statement, the directors of Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) said there had never ''in our lifetimes'' been such agreement among economists on a major policy issue.

    This article was published online by the Independent on June 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    June 20, 2016
    CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
    Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Al Jazeera

    Transcript: Norman Lamont on the Brexit and the EU

    A study by the London School of Economics found that BREXIT could lead to a fall in national income equivalent to that of the financial crash of 2008. Facts?

    This article appeared on Al Jazeera on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Indian Express

    Brexit: Beckham says remain

    Leading economic institutions in Britain – the Institute for Fiscal Studies, NIESR, and the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance – have warned quitting the EU’s single market would make the UK “financially worse off"

    This article appeared in The Indian Express on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Daily Mirror

    How does Europe add up in numbers as Britain prepares for EU Referendum

    £350 - the amount the London School of Economics says you save every year from lower prices thanks to EU membership

    This article appeared in the Daily Mirror on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    New York Online

    How Donald Trump Explains ‘Brexit'

    In the most pessimistic scenario modeled by researchers for the London School of Economics, output would ultimately take a 9.5 percent hit, “a loss of a similar size to that resulting from the global financial crisis of 2008-09.”

    This article appeared in New York Online on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    EU referendum: UK's top economic experts issue joint warning against Brexit

    Challenging Leave campaign claims that Britain’s economy would not suffer from Brexit, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) said that “almost all of those who have looked seriously at this issue” were predicting lower real wages in event of Brexit, higher prices for goods and services, higher borrowing costs and higher unemployment.

    This article appeared in the Independnent on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Parliament Magazine

    Brexit would 'almost certainly' harm UK's economy, say economic trio

    The trio, Jagjit Chadha, the director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and John Van Reenen, the director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, published a joint statement today (20 June), outlining their collective conclusions on the likely consequences of a Brexit. Leaving the EU, they argue, would, relative to staying in, likely result in lower real wages, a reduction in the value of the pound resulting in price hikes, as well as higher borrowing and lower public spending or higher taxes. The UK would also see unemployment rise in the short term.

    This article appeared in Parliament Magazine on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Brexit: Will it improve living standards in the UK?

    The second part of the argument is that in the longer term – over the next 15 or so years - not being in the European Union would mean the economy does not grow as much as it otherwise would. This is the analysis that has been made by independent organisations such as the London School of Economics and The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

    This article appeared in the Independent on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    EU referendum: How would leaving the EU work – and how would it affect you in the long term?

    They do not say we would be poorer than we are now, but that we would be poorer than we would otherwise be. Estimates of the long-term effect range from 3 per cent of national income (Oxford Economics) to 8 per cent (London School of Economics).

    This article appeared in the Independent on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Evening Standard

    Leaving the EU single market would be a disaster for London

    The evidence from independent, respected experts is overwhelming. They share the view that the UK will face a severe economic blow in the event of leaving the EU, leading to fewer jobs and lower public spending. The IMF, the Bank of England, the Treasury and the London School of Economics are united in their views: the UK economy will shrink if we leave.

    This article appeared in the Evening Standard on 21 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC2/BBC News Channel - Victoria Derbyshire Show

    EU Vote: What is TTIP and why should you care?

    Dennis Novy appeared on a show dealing with the EU and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), answering questions from members of the public who are worried about TTIP and what it might mean for the NHS.

    The Victoria Derbyshire Show was broadcast on BBC2 on June 21, 2016
    The broadcast is available online here. The TTIP segment with Dennis Novy begins 1:25:57 into the programme.

    Related publications
    TTIP: is free trade coming to the North Atlantic?, Dennis Novy. Article in CentrePiece Volume 19, Issue 3, Winter 2014/15

    Related links
    Dennis Novy webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Politico

    Brexit Corner - Three days to go

    Today Morning Trade talks Brexit and the future of U.K. trade policy with Swati Dhingra, a lecturer in economics at the London School of Economics and a member of the trade research program of the Institutions's Center for Economic Performance.

    If Brexit were to happen, what would the U.K.'s negotiating position vis a vis that of the EU be?
    It's hard to make precise predictions, but some insight on how the U.K. would fare following Brexit might be gained by looking at the experience of Canada, another medium-sized developed economy in close proximity to a much larger market, the U.S.
    Are you thinking of Canada's experience with the North American Free Trade Agreement?
    Yes. When you are a smaller market next to larger one, in this case the biggest market in the world, it is very hard to be considered an equal negotiating partner. The smaller partner usually ends up giving up more in order to obtain market access concessions from the larger partner. In the case of Canada and the North American Free Trade Agreement, Ottawa adopted the ''investment state dispute settlement,'' a dispute settlement mechanism that allows investors to bring claims directly against the government in case of provisions it deems unfair. An example is the proposal to introduce plain packaging for cigarettes, which the Canadian government dropped because American tobacco companies could have claimed that the proposal violated NAFTA.
    Canadian companies have the same right under the ISDS court system, so why is it a problem?
    The question is one of balancing investor rights with how much policy space is available to governments. There is also concern that U.S. firms are better able to take advantage of ISDS provisions than Canadian ones. The United States has won all of the 11 decided cases that it has initiated under the ISDS, while Canada has won seven of its 13 cases.
    Would the UK be facing a similar scenario with the EU?
    It’s not about ISDS per se, it's about the country finding itself in the position of having to give up on more than it would be willing to in other conditions. Let's take Schengen for example, an issue dear to the U.K., and an exception London has fought long and hard to have when it was part of the EU. If the U.K. were to leave the EU bloc, when it goes back to the negotiating table it might have to give up on the Schengen exception if, for example, it wanted concessions on the service side of the new trade deal.
    - Switzerland frets it'll be a loser from Brexit:
    Despite Switzerland likely reaping benefits from a Brexit due to the influx of funds from the City of London, it is afraid of currency appreciation as the Swiss franc is one of the few safe-haven currencies in times of uncertainty. If the franc appreciates Swiss exports that account for more than 50 percent of the country's GDP, according to the World Bank, will likely suffer.

    More on POLITICO Pro here

    This article was published online by Politico on June 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Book, June 2016

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Saul Estrin webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Sputnik News

    Britain's Economy to See Guaranteed Losses, Uncertain Gains After Brexit

    According to Thomas Sampson, assistant professor at the Department of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), an exit scenario would hit the country's economy really hard. Talking to Sputnik, he referred to a study carried out by LSE's Centre for Economic Performance in which it was forecast that UK per capita GDP would decrease by between 6.3 and 9.5 percent in the long-run in the event of Brexit.

    This article was published online by Sputnik News on June 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Also in
    June 23, 2016
    Ria Novosti (Russia)
    ANALYSIS: Britain's Economy to See Guaranteed Losses, Uncertain Gains After Brexit

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    FT.com

    Asian leaders urge UK to stay in EU

    The UK is also the top destination for foreign direct investment in Europe and ranked as one of the most attractive FDI markets in the world. But investment would tumble at least 22 per cent over the next decade in the event of Brexit, according to a recent study by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

    This article was published by FT.com on June 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03, April 2016
    See Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.3 here
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.02, March 2016
    See Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.2 here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Western Daily Press

    Being in the UK works better for jobs and business

    The IMF, the Bank of England, the Treasury, the OECD, the London School of Economics and many more are...
    (no link available)

    This article was published by the Western Daily Press on June 20, 2016
    [No link available]

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Radio New Zealand National Online

    Brexit: should the UK stay or walk away?

    Thomas Sampson is from the London School Of Economics and has recently authored a paper called, Economists for Brexit: A Critique. He says Britain would be stronger by remaining in the EU.

    This interview was broadcast by Radio New Zealand National online on June 19, 2016
    Link to the broadcast here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 19/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Herald Scotland

    Forget project fear

    The most serious problem of staying outside any EU trade agreement is the serious impact this might have on foreign direct investment into the UK. Being in the single market makes the UK attractive as a base for exporters. A Centre for Economic Performance report estimates that the UK has around £1 trillion of foreign direct investment, of which half is from other EU countries, and much of the rest uses the UK as a platform to the single market.

    This article was published by the Herald Scotland on June 19, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.03, April 2016
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.02, March 2016
    See all of the Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 19/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

    Britain could soon vote to leave the European Union

    Thomas Sampson interviewed on what may happen following a vote for Brexit.

    The interview was broadcast on the Last Week Tonight with John Oliver show on June 19, 2016
    Link to broadcast here [Interview begins at 10:33]

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.08, June 2016

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 19/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    Brexit: What if?

    All or nothing at all
    What sort of deal might that new leader try to get? Some want no deal at all. A group called Economists for Brexit (EFB) suggests simply abolishing all import tariffs. The ensuing rise in trade, it says, would boost GDP by 4%. Yet this prediction relies on small changes in trade costs having implausibly large effects on how much trade goes on, say researchers at the London School of Economics. Besides, the EFB assumptions are politically implausible.

    This article was published online by The Economist on June 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 4

    More or less programme

    ...leaving the EU would damage the UK economy and says Swati Dhingra of the London school of economics that's true even if we accept Patrick ...

    This interview was broadcast by BBC Radio 4 on the More or Less programme on June 18, 2016
    Link to the interview here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 18/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Investing.com

    El 'brexit' golpearía al comercio del Reino Unido y reduciría su PIB

    In addition, ''agreements with third countries would be predictably less beneficial for the United Kingdom if it negotiated them alone rather than as part of the European Union,'' he told Dr Swati Dhingra, Economist at the Centre for economic performance (CEP). On the other hand, the contraction of the GDP affects tax revenues and therefore harms the State deficit, and at the same time that affects the labour market, increasing unemployment and reducing wages, said Holger Breinlich, Professor of the school of business at the University of Nottingham.

    This article was published online by Investing.com (Spain) on June 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.08, June 2016
    Who Bears the Pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.07, June 2016

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    The Battle of Evermore

    But on Brexit they do not. A host of studies in Britain—by his own institute, the Treasury, the Institute of Fiscal Studies, Oxford Economics, PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Centre for European Reform and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics—agree with international bodies—the IMF and the OECD rich-country think-tank—that Brexit would mean less trade, lower foreign direct investment and slower productivity growth.

    This article appeared in the Economist on 18 June 2016 Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here .

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 18/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    New Zealand Herald online - Business

    Brian Fallow: Nostalgia no basis for policy

    Then there is the question of the effect on Britain's trade with other regions if it is no longer governed by agreements negotiated by the European Union. Eurosceptics assume those agreements dilute Britain's interests but research by the London School of Economics found that the EU's trade deals tended to benefit Britain more than other European countries.

    This article was published by the New Zealand Herald online on June 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.02, March 2016
    See Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.2 here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Oye! Times (Canada)

    Oye! News from Europe: Brexit does anyone win?

    As June 23 looms closer and closer and Britain makes the ultimate decision whether it should stay in the European Union or go it alone, a recent thorough analysis by Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics looks at what various changes in income various income groups in the United Kingdom will experience if the UK decides to cast its membership in the European Union aside on June 23, 2016.

    This article was published online by Oye! Times (Canada) on June 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.08, June 2016
    Who Bears the Pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.07, June 2016

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Full Fact

    The EU referendum, the economy and you

    A different approach is to estimate how prices for different things would be affected, and then compare this to spending patterns across different income brackets and household types. Using this approach, the Centre for Economic Performance have suggested that the costs of leaving the EU would be distributed fairly equally across different types of household.


    News Posted: 16/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Daily Mail online

    Things you need to read about Brexit: Best articles to help you decide

    Things to read about Brexit

    Below is a selection of informative things to read about Brexit that can help you decide. Please suggest your own in comments, but you cannot post links there. You can send links to editor@thisismoney.co.uk with Brexit articles in the headline and we will see if they are worth adding.
    LSE professor: Why I will vote Remain in the referendum
    London School of Economics Nicholas Barr runs through his thoughts with some good facts and explanations that weigh up key issues.

    This article was published by The Daily Mail online on June 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related articles
    Letter to friends: this is why I will vote Remain in the referendum, Nicholas Barr, LSE BrexitVote blog on May 27, 2016 cites CEP Brexit research.

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The New Yorker

    Murder of British M.P. heightens uncertainty over Brexit vote

    The failure to make a case for the E.U. had left a big opportunity for Johnson and Nigel Farage, the head of the U.K. Independence Party, to argue that Britain doesn't get anything out of its membership except bureaucratic diktats from Brussels, and boatloads of immigrants from Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe, who fill the welfare rolls and depress wages. These claims are largely false: a recent paper by three economists at the London School of Economics concluded, ''EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born.'' But, as the polls indicate, the anti-E.U. fabrications are widely believed.

    This article was published online by the New Yorker on June 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Leave to exit: how your money might be affected by Brexit

    Last year, a report from the Bank of England supported his comment, suggesting that the wages of low-paid employees in catering, hospitality and care have been driven down by increased competition from EU workers.
    However, the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, claimed that areas of the UK with large recent increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in pay as a result, but that wages fell as a result of the global financial crisis. It added: ''Immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities.''

    This article was published by The Independent on June 15, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    FT.com

    Brexit: what is in store for the economy

    The thinking behind the predictions about Britain's future outside the EU
    Very costly in all scenarios: Centre for Economic Performance
    The prediction: A hit to trade in all likely scenarios will bring GDP 6.3-9.5 per cent lower by 2030 than if the UK stayed in.
    The reasoning Even if the UK strikes a free-trade agreement with the EU, non-tariff barriers - such as rules of origin regulations - would hamper growth. The worst estimates assume the economy will become less efficient over the long term due to less competition from EU nations.
    Criticism Does not assume any impact due to change in migration or a reduction in regulations.

    This article was published by the FT.com on June 15, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Neue Zurcher Zeitung

    Brexit-Szenarien: Was der Brexit fur die EU-Wirtschaft bedeuten wurde

    Relevant studies, among other things by the Bertelsmann Foundation in collaboration with the Ifo Institute, the Center for economic performance at the London School of Economics and the rating agency Standard & Poor's, come in the tendency to similar results: the economic consequences would be for the EU-27 is less severe than for Britain itself, but on balance but negative.

    This article was published online by Neue Zurcher Zeitung (Germany) on June 14, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Telegraph

    UK voters back Norway-style Brexit, poll reveals

    Experts at the Treasury, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), and the London School of Economics have all found that remaining a part of the EEA would pose the least severe economic risk to the UK after a decision to split from the EU.

    This article was published online by The Telegraph on June 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    Vote Leave's anti-immigration system is deeply flawed

    Study after study confirms that EU migrants have an overwhelmingly positive effect on the British economy. They have a higher employment rate (78.2%) than people born in the UK (72.5%), those from Poland and other A8 accession economies especially so (81.9%). Their hard work neither deprives British workers of jobs nor depresses local wages, as a new study by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) shows. On the contrary, EU migrants tend to enhance the productivity of British workers, and hence their pay.

    This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on June 10, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 10/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Brexit job losses are already impacting, recruiters say

    The slowdown in hiring during the months of uncertainty before the poll will “come up in the GDP numbers,” said Swati Dhingra, an assistant professor at the London School of Economics.

    This article appeared in the Independent on 10 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 10/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE EUROPP - European Politics and Policy blog

    Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship: A 'soft' Brexit

    What consequences will Britain's EU referendum have for both the UK and the rest of Europe? In a series of papers published as a collaboration between EUROPP and CIDOB (the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs), LSE authors analyse the prospects for three scenarios - a Bremain, a 'soft' Brexit and a 'harsh' Brexit. Swati Dhingra discusses what would happen in the case of a 'soft' Brexit, which is defined as the UK exiting the EU without a significant deterioration in relations between Britain and other EU countries. The full papers are available here.

    This article was published online by LSE's EUROPP - European Politics and Policy - blog on June 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.08, June 2016
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.01, February 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg News

    Those Brexit job losses? Recruiters say they've already started

    Pro-EU forces have warned that if Britain votes to exit the union on June 23, the country could lose almost a million jobs. Recruiters say the damage has already begun. ''Companies are pushing the pause button,'' said Kit Bingham, a partner at executive search firm Odgers Berndtson. An Odgers poll last month found that a quarter of directors at FTSE 350 companies would consider relocating at least part of their business if voters approve a Brexit. Even with a vote to stay, some harm is inevitable, economists say. The slowdown in hiring during the months of uncertainty before the poll will ''come up in the GDP numbers,'' said Swati Dhingra, an assistant professor at the London School of Economics. ''There's going to be a lag. It won't recover overnight.''

    This article was published online by Bloomberg News on June 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series is available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Brexiters' idea of unilateral free trade is a dangerous fantasy

    Economists for Brexit, argues that such an alternative exists. It rejects post-exit deals with the EU and instead recommends unilateral free trade and reliance for market access on the rules of the World Trade Organisation. Does this make sense? The short answer is: no. The longer one is that unilateral free trade would not be economically superior to EU membership, would be less simple than imagined and would also be politically unacceptable. ...

    Start with the economics. Patrick Minford of Cardiff University suggests that, under this option, UK economic welfare would rise by 4 per cent after Brexit. The economy would also end up specialising in services and lose manufacturing. In analysing the same option, economists at the London School of Economics reach a quite different conclusion: a reduction of 2.3 per cent in welfare, only marginally less than the 2.6 per cent reduction they believe would follow a Brexit without such unilateral reductions in tariffs.

    This article was published by The Financial Times on June 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.6, May 2016
    The complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series is available online here

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Chronicle Live (Newcastle)

    EU referendum: Are we really goingto rip up all our trade deals and start again?

    The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance calculates long-term costs to Britain of lower trade with the EU could be as high as 9.5% of GDP. Leave campaign-supporting economists have as yet not done detailed analyses.

    This article was published by the Chronicle Live (Newcastle) on June 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.02, March 2016.
    Download the accompanying Technical Paper here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    NEON blog (Germany)

    Es gibt zu viele falsche Informationen

    ''There's too much wrong information''
    Interview with Swati Dhingra
    How will the British vote on June 23? Swati Dhingra, lecturer in economics at the London School of Economics, has examined the possible effects of a Brexit vote on the UK economy. In the interview, she explains why young voters could make all the difference.

    This article was publsihed online by NEON (Germany) on June 7, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    News Posted: 07/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Guardian

    Guardian Small Business Network, EU referendum panel: Would Brexit make UK businesses less competitive?

    In this week's EU referendum Q&A our panel discuss how a Brexit could affect the costs facing UK businesses:
    Would UK businesses be more or less competitive in the global market if we choose to leave?

    Swati Dhingra
    Assistant professor at the department of economics at the London School of Economics, researching international economics, globalisation and industrial policy, she is co-author of Life after Brexit, a report by LSE's centre for economic performance
    After Brexit UK businesses would be less competitive within the EU market because they would face higher non-tariff barriers such as rules of origin and the costs of divergence in regulations. Potentially, UK businesses would also face tariffs when exporting to the EU and to countries with which the EU has negotiated trade agreements. If the business relies heavily on imports from the EU or the EU's trade agreement partners, then it would have to pay higher costs for its inputs. The EU is the UK's biggest trade and investment partner, so these higher trade barriers would make UK businesses less competitive. ...

    John Van Reenen
    Director of the Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics.
    In the short run, it is likely there would be negative shocks as uncertainty spikes while we negotiate new trading arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world. This has potential to hurt investment and hiring. In the longer run, there would be an increase in trade costs as we would have a looser relationship with the EU single market. This could potentially cause a fall in overall trade and in foreign investment, which could in turn depress productivity. Second, access to EU migrants, who provide a valuable source of skills to EU businesses, would be restricted. ...

    This article was published online by the Guardian on June 7, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 07/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Gulf Times

    A British test of reason at June 23 referendum

    But lately, as John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics recently put it, the economic case for Brexit has been largely missing in action. Its advocates are at pains to explain what kind of trade and partnership agreements, if any, Britain could enter into with the EU, much less how those agreements would be superior to the current arrangement.

    This article appeared in the Gulf Times on 6 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 06/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    London Loves Business

    5 reasons the UK leaving the EU would be a DISASTER

    A report by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics released last week published similar findings. The report said that in an “optimistic” scenario, the UK leaving the EU would knock off £850 per household. In a “pessimistic” scenario with larger increases in trade costs, Brexit will lower average incomes by £1,700 per household.

    This article appeared in London Loves Business on 6 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 06/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Morning Star

    UPDATE: 5 arguments in favor of a U.K. 'Brexit' from the EU -- and 5 against

    U.K. shoppers save 350 pounds a year, or about $511, thanks to lower prices that come from being part of the EU. That's according to the remain campaign, which cites London School of Economics data

    This article appeared in the Morning Star on 6 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 06/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World Service Radio

    Thomas Sampson interview

    Thomas Sampson speaks in favour of Britain staying in the EU

    This programme was broadcast on BBC World Service on 6 June 2016. Link

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 06/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Daily Mirror

    The 6 experts saying Brexit will cost you - and the 1 that disagrees

    Numbers are being thrown around by the Vote Leave and Vote Remain campaigns like they're going out of fashion - but what do the experts say and can we trust them?
    Six out of seven reports predict a Brexit will hurt us for years to come. Six out of seven reports say families will lose thousands of pounds a year. Hang on, we hear the Brexiteers say. Who wrote these reports? How are these economists funded? We decided to find out: ...

    2. LSE: We'll lose £850 a year

    What is it?
    The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics is a group of academic researchers.

    What does it say?
    If the UK gets a free trade agreement, it will still take a 1.3% hit to GDP by 2020 - or £850 less for each family. But if the UK doesn't get an agreement, the cost to families could be £1,700 a year. Whatever the trade deal, the CEP is gloomy about the longterm prospects for going it alone. By 2030, in the best case scenario, it predicts we'll be £4,200 poorer, and in the worst that rises to £6,400.

    This article was published by The Daily Mirror on June 6, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 06/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Le Monde

    « Brexit » : la bataille des chiffres au cœur de la campagne

    Leur salaire baisserait de 48 euros par semaine d’ici la même date, renchérit le Trade Union Congress, la principale confédération syndicale. Les prix des transports augmenteraient de 7,5 % et ceux de l’alcool de 7 %, estime la London School of Economics.

    This article appeared in Le Monde on 5 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 05/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Ledbury Reporter

    Polish residents who have made Herefordshire home speak out about what Brexit would mean for them

    Recent research by the London School of Economics found that migrants have had no negative effect on UK wages. The research blamed the 2008 recession for lower real salaries rather than a rise in foreign workers, who paid more into UK economy than they took out.

    This article appeared in the Ledbury Reporter on 5 June 2016.Link to article

    Related publications
    ‘Immigration and the UK Labour Market’ Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Election Analysis No.19, May 2015

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 05/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    No one would be spared: how the costs of Brexit would be distributed across households

    That leaving the EU would damage the overall economy is now being treated as more of a fact than a speculation. But those for Brexit argue that the rich will be negatively affected while the poor will benefit. This is not the case, write Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Middle and low income households will be negatively affected as well the rich.

    This article was published online by LSE British Politics and Policy blog on June 3, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Who Bears the Pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.07, June 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis Papers here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 03/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Wall Street Journal

    This Week's Brexit Briefing

    Here, economists at the Centre for Economic Performance from the same university seek to explain why the economic forecasts of Patrick Minford, one of a minority of economists favoring Brexit, differ from a majority of economists and suggest the U.K. could grow after leaving the EU. In summary, they say that Mr. Minford’s idea to unilaterally reduce import tariffs to zero after leaving the EU would have some economic benefits but nowhere near what Mr. Minford calculates.

    This article appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 3 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 03/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE Business Review

    The distributional effects of Brexit: who bears the pain?

    Middle and low income households will be poorer because of Brexit - not just the rich, write Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen.

    This article was published online by the LSE Business Review blog on June 2, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Who Bears the Pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.07, June 2016

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 02/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Predictions of recession if UK leaves EU based on 'bizarre assumptions'

    Economists for Brexit group claims that downturn would be avoided if Britain removed all trade barriers after leaving EU
    Economists campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union have accused the Treasury and international institutions of ''groupthink'' in a report that says growth would be boosted if all trade barriers were removed after a leave vote in this month's referendum. ... Prof Patrick Minford said all the studies showing that leaving the EU would have detrimental consequences for the economy were based on the ''same flawed model'' and the ''same damaging assumptions''. ... ''In recent weeks, there has been a relentless stream of output from modelling groups on the topic of Brexit - all of it negative. This has included long-term and short-term reports from not merely the Treasury but also the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, PWC, Oxford Economics, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, the OECD and the IMF,'' Minford said.

    This article was published by The Guardian on June 2, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 02/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    IN Facts

    EU immigrants aren't taking Brits' jobs

    Myth: EU immigrants are taking Brits' jobs
    InFact: Researchers at Oxford, the LSE and NIESR agree; immigration doesn't affect British employment. Meanwhile, Brexit would hit jobs.

    Intuitively, if immigrants are taking jobs from British workers, it would seem odd that we're seeing a record high employment rate of 74.2% at a time when immigration is high. This intuition is borne out by a string of academic studies - from the Centre for Economic Policy[sic] at the London School of Economics, the Institute for the Study of Labour, and the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford - that show EU migrants aren't putting Brits out of work.
    ...''even in the short term EU migration does not appear to have had a negative impact on the employment outcomes of UK natives''. This view is shared by the Centre for Economic Policy [sic], which concluded that ''we can confidently say that the empirical evidence shows that EU immigration has not had significantly negative effects on average employment, wages, inequality or public services at the local level for the UK-born.''

    This article was published online by IN Facts on June 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Les Echos (France)

    Incalculable Brexit

    Stop everything! According to the OECD, the forum of economic reflection of developed countries, the United Kingdom would lose 5% of its GDP in the 15 years to come slamming the door of the European Union. Treasury, British, evaluates the fall to 6.2% of GDP, equivalent to 5,500 euros per household. This central forecast is part of a range of 3.8 to 7.8%. But the experts of the Center for Economic Performance, the famous London School of Economics, found it too timid. They believe that the impact of the Brexit could be half higher!

    This article was published by Les Echos (France) on June 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.4, April 2016
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.02, March 2016
    See Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.2 here
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC News

    EU Referendum Reality Check: Would Brexit cut wages by £38 per week?

    The claim: Trade union umbrella body the TUC says leaving the EU would cut average earnings by £38 per week by 2030.
    Reality Check verdict: The TUC has taken other bodies' forecasts that leaving the EU would lead to slower growth in the economy and used them to predict lower wages. While the precise figures are highly uncertain, if you believe the forecasts for the economy you can also believe that wages would be lower. TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady says: ''Working people will be £38 a week worse off if we leave''. Where has that figure come from? In its report, the TUC has taken the average of the falls in GDP (that's what you get when you add up the value of everything produced in the economy) for 2030, predicted by the OECD, the Treasury and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, as well as the fall in wages expected by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

    This article was published online by BBC News Reality Check on June 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related reports
    Better off in. Working people and the case from remaining in the UK, TUC Report, June 1, 2016.
    [See Table 5.]

    Related publications
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 4

    The science of resilience

    Michael Pluess and Richard Layard interviewed about resilience and mental health.

    The interview was broadcast by BBC Radio 4 on May 31, 2016
    Link to interview here

    Related links
    Richard Layard webpage
    Michael Pluess webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 31/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg News

    Some cold, hard facts for Brexiteers: Europe's richest nations have a high concentration of foreigners

    The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said earlier this month that a reduction in immigration into the U.K. if the country votes for a Brexit wouldn't lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in Britain.

    This article was published by Bloomberg News online on May 31, 2016
    Link to article here

    Associated Article
    May 11, 2016
    Bloomberg News online
    'Post-Brexit Immigration Cut 'Wouldn't Boost Living Standards'
    Read full article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 31/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    The /Britain Alone' scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity

    Article by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

    The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the degree of impoverishment (for example, Dhingra et al, 2016a; OECD, 2016; HM Treasury, 2016; PWC, 2016; NIESR, 2016).


    News Posted: 30/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Investment Adviser

    Fallout forecasts polarise opinion

    The EU referendum debate has started to focus on the economic fallout of a leave vote for the UK - and also for Europe. Research from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released in April suggests a Brexit vote could see UK GDP growth contract by 3.3 per cent by 2020, and by 2030 the central base-case scenario means a GDP contraction of 5.1 per cent. It adds the economic consequences of a leave vote could also spread beyond the UK, with European GDP growth contracting around 1 per cent by 2020. In a speech presenting the findings, however, Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the OECD, said the estimates - not just from the OECD but also the London School of Economics and HM Treasury - ''are too cautious''.

    This article was published online by the FT Investment Adviser on May 30, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.04, April 2016 See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 30/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Lancashire Evening Post

    Pro-Brexit claims are rubbished

    ...financial arguments in favour of leaving the EU. The report by the London School of Economics and Political...

    This article was published by the Lancashire Evening Post on May 30, 2016
    (no link available)

    Related publications
    The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.04, April 2016 See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 30/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    bdaily.co.uk

    What do UK SME's really think about Brexit?

    What issues have the greatest negative impact on UK businesses?
    Both sides of the debate have argued that there is either too much or very little EU red tape. These confusing arguments haven't helped to clarify the debate. Last month The Treasury cited the LSE Centre for Economic Performance report which stated, ''It is unclear whether there are substantial regulatory benefits from Brexit''. Businesses that took part in the Loc8 Commercial survey however, think red tape is the biggest issue affecting their ability to do business easily with 58%. In addition, the regularity of new EU regulations is the second biggest issue with 35% citing this as a concern, well ahead of immigration, which had a zero score from the businesses that took part in the survey.

    This article was published online by bdaily.co.uk on May 30, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.04, April 2016
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 30/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg

    UK consumers would have a 'great time' in Brexit, Minford says

    Britons would benefit from lower prices if the U.K. left the European Union, according to Patrick Minford, a professor at Cardiff University and co-chairman of Economists for Brexit.

    According to Minford, the mistake of Remain campaigners, such as the U.K. Treasury, which has warned of the economic risks of leaving the world’s largest single market, is assuming that both exporters and importers would suffer. His model came in for criticism on Friday. Economists including Thomas Sampson from the London School of Economics wrote in a report that it doesn’t correctly predict the consequences of a so-called Brexit and his policy proposals would actually lead to a decline in living standards. “What the Treasury have done is take the LSE equations and souped them up big time to get even bigger negatives,” Minford said. “It’s all gloom and doom because of exporters. They forget the consumers will have a great time. Prices will come down.”


    News Posted: 27/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE Business Review blog

    How do ‘Economists for Brexit' manage to defy the laws of gravity?

    The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the degree of impoverishment (for example, Dhingra et al, 2016a; OECD, 2016; HM Treasury, 2016; PWC, 2016; NIESR, 2016). Perhaps the one exception is the recent and much publicised work of 'Economists for Brexit' (2016). Since any coherent economic case for leaving the EU was been largely 'missing in action', it is refreshing to get some clarity over the Leave campaign's vision of the UK's post-Brexit economic arrangements. The only modelling details provided by Economists for Brexit come from Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff University (Minford, 2015; 2016; Minford et al, 2016). He argues that Brexit will raise the UK's welfare by 4% as a result of increased trade.

    This article was published online by the LSE Business Review blog on May 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.06, May 2016
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CEP Brexit Analyses

    ‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT': A critique

    The latest in a series of #CEPBrexit reports, published by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, explains how the 'Economists for Brexit' fail to grasp basic facts about the nature of regulation, product standards and international trade.

    This article appeared in CEP Brexit Analyses on 27 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    ‘Economists for Brexit: A Critique’ Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.06, May 2016 The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Full Fact

    Stronger In 'facts' leaflet: lower prices

    Claim Being in Europe means lower prices in UK shops, saving the average UK household over £350 a year. If we left Europe, your weekly shop could cost more.

    Conclusion This isn’t the impact of being in the EU as such, but one estimate of the impact of the free trade deals the EU has negotiated—a saving of 1.27% for the average household. It’s difficult to say overall what the impact of being in the EU has had on prices in the UK.

    “Being in Europe means lower prices in UK shops, saving the average UK household over £350 a year. If we left Europe, your weekly shop could cost more”.

    London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance

    The research this figure is based on found that free trade agreements negotiated by the EU had led to lower prices for imported goods that UK consumers buy. The researchers say that’s because free trade agreements remove or reduce import taxes called tariffs on goods from outside the EU, which increases the flow of those goods into the EU market, which increases competition and in turn leads to better quality products and lower prices.

     


    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Full Fact

    Stronger In 'facts' leaflet: leaving

    Claim Leaving the EU would cost the average UK household at least £850 a year, and potentially as much as £1,700, according to research released by the London School of Economics.

    Conclusion These figures don’t tell you how much you or your family would lose, but they point in the same direction as most other economic analysis seems to.

    "Leaving the EU would cost the average UK household at least £850 a year, and potentially as much as £1,700, according to research released by the London School of Economics."

    London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance

     


    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CEPS

    Brexit - A last testament

    There has been an impressive wealth of serious studies on the macroeconomic consequences of secession in the short, medium and long term (UK Treasury, Bank of England, London School of Economics, OECD, IMF), all of which point to significant damage to the UK economy.

    This article appeared on CEPS on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related Links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    International Business Times

    'Does Britain really want DIY recession?' asks George Osborne one month before EU referendum

    'Does Britain really want DIY recession?' asks George Osborne one month before EU referendum "When this is being backed up by the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the London School of Economics, eight former US Treasury secretaries, the President of the United States of America, businesses big and small, every one of our allies and trading partners and the Governor of the Bank of England, it isn't a conspiracy but a consensus."

    This article appeared in the International Business Times on 23 May 2016 Link to article

    Related Publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related Links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    City AM

    Sajid Javid: Brexit warnings are 'not a conspiracy' - it will cost 500,000 UK jobs

    Responding to Hilton’s article, Javid said: “Steve is entitled to his view … the central issue here is that economically, we are far better off being part of this single market … Now you have the Bank of England, the IMF [International Monetary Fund], the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development], the London School of Economics, the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility], the IFS [Institute for Fiscal Studies], every one of our allies, every one of our trading partners and that is not a conspiracy, that’s a consensus about what would happen if we left the EU.”

    This article appeared in City AM on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related Links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Duncan Smith's claim that Sajid Javid backs Brexit 'simply not true'

    Responding to Hilton’s article, Javid said: “Steve is entitled to his view … the central issue here is that economically, we are far better off being part of this single market … Now you have the Bank of England, the IMF [International Monetary Fund], the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development], the London School of Economics, the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility], the IFS [Institute for Fiscal Studies], every one of our allies, every one of our trading partners and that is not a conspiracy, that’s a consensus about what would happen if we left the EU.”

    This article appeared in the Guardian on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC News Online

    Brexit forecasts can be wrong, it doesn't mean they are pointless

    Brexit forecasts can be wrong, it doesn't mean they are pointless In that assessment, it finds allies in the IMF, the Bank of England, the London School of Economics and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

    This article appeared on BBC News Online on 23 May 2016 Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times of Malta Online

    What's at stake in the UK's EU vote

    The claim, however, that migration is a drain on the welfare state is false. EU migrants for the most part move to Britain to work, and a study by the London School of Economics has shown that they are net contribu¬tors to the economy as a result of the taxes they pay.

    This article appeared in the Times of Malta Online on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times of Malta Online

    What's at stake in the UK's EU vote

    The claim, however, that migration is a drain on the welfare state is false. EU migrants for the most part move to Britain to work, and a study by the London School of Economics has shown that they are net contribu¬tors to the economy as a result of the taxes they pay.

    This article appeared in the Times of Malta Online on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times of Malta Online

    What's at stake in the UK's EU vote

    The claim, however, that migration is a drain on the welfare state is false. EU migrants for the most part move to Britain to work, and a study by the London School of Economics has shown that they are net contribu¬tors to the economy as a result of the taxes they pay.

    This article appeared in the Times of Malta Online on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Daily Mail

    Osborne warns Brexit will force us into 'DIY' recession

    The Chancellor and the PM have also rejected claims they are scaremongering [about Brexit]. They wrote in the Daily Telegraph: ‘When this is being backed up by the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the London School of Economics…it isn’t a conspiracy but a consensus. We are clear, as is the vast majority of the Conservative Cabinet: this is simply a price that is not worth paying.’

    This article appeared in The Daily Mail on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Daily Mail

    Osborne warns Brexit will force us into 'DIY' recession

    The Chancellor and the PM have also rejected claims they are scaremongering [about Brexit]. They wrote in the Daily Telegraph: ‘When this is being backed up by the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the London School of Economics…it isn’t a conspiracy but a consensus. We are clear, as is the vast majority of the Conservative Cabinet: this is simply a price that is not worth paying.’

    This article appeared in The Daily Mail on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Market Inspector

    Would TTIP be a good deal for European Citizens?

    According to Dennis Novy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick: ''TTIP has the potential to benefit millions of consumers. It goes far beyond an economic project. Its current timetable seems ambitious. Without considerable attention and support from the highest levels of government, it will be hard to lead TTIP to a successful conclusion any time soon''.

    This article was published online by Market Inspector on May 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Dennis Novy webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


    News Posted: 20/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    China Daily

    Brexit would entail huge economic costs for UK

    The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance calculates that the long-term costs to the UK of lower trade with the EU could be as high as 9.5 percent of its GDP, while the fall in foreign investment could cost 3.4 percent of its GDP or more. Those costs alone dwarf the potential gains. The UK's net contribution to the EU budget amounted to only 0.35 percent of its GDP last year, and scrapping EU regulation would bring limited benefits, because the UK's labor and product markets are already among the freest in the world.

    This article appeared in China Daily on 20 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 20/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Are EU migrants really taking British jobs and pushing down wages?

    The most recent research from the centre for economic performance at the London School of Economics says ''the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.'' ... The LSE's Jonathan Wadsworth said: ''The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off. So, far from EU immigration being a ''necessary evil'' that we pay to get access to the greater trade and foreign investment generated by the EU single market, immigration is at worse neutral, and at best, another economic benefit.''

    This article was published in The Guardian on May 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage

    News Posted: 20/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC 6 o'clock News

    BBC 1

    John Van Reenen interviewed about migration figures

    This programme was broadcast on 19 May 2016 (no link available)

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 19/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    What is Brexit-related uncertainty doing to UK growth?

    The UK will soon vote on whether to end its 43-year membership in the European Union. Opinion polls suggest the vote is too close to call, with the ''stay'' and ''leave'' side switching leads on a regular basis, and this uncertainty is reflected in swings in the stock market, explains Nicholas Bloom. Using data from the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, he explains why the uncertainty could be having a material negative impact on the UK's economic performance.

    This article was published by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on May 19, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Nicholas Bloom webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 19/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    What is Brexit-related uncertainty doing to UK growth?

    The UK will soon vote on whether to end its 43-year membership in the European Union. Opinion polls suggest the vote is too close to call, with the ''stay'' and ''leave'' side switching leads on a regular basis, and this uncertainty is reflected in swings in the stock market, explains Nicholas Bloom. Using data from the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, he explains why the uncertainty could be having a material negative impact on the UK's economic performance.

    This article was published by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on May 19, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Nicholas Bloom webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 19/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Brexit would hit UK growth and impede foreign investment

    However, if there is one thing we as investors don’t like, it is economic uncertainty. As several important bodies have said — the International Monetary Fund, Bank of England, London School of Economics, the Treasury and others — leaving the EU would mean a shock to the UK economy, hurting growth, job creation and foreign investment.

    This article appered in the Financial Times on 18 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 18/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Would Brexit affect my business's IP rights in Europe?

    As the EU referendum draws closer, our expert panel answers a question from one of our readers about the potential effect on small businesses' intellectual property.
    What would Brexit mean for my business's intellectual property rights in Europe?

    Swati Dhingra:
    Assistant professor at the department of economics at the London School of Economics, researching international economics, globalisation and industrial policy. Co-author of the recent 'Life after Brexit' report by LSE's centre for economic performance, which looked at the UK's options outside the EU.

    Intellectual property (IP) protected through European mechanisms such as the European Patent Office, would continue to prevail after Brexit. But Britain would need to legislate on what happens to protections granted through EU directives such as the community trade mark. Many IP lawyers believe Britain would adopt these EU directives into its own law, so there should be a fairly smooth transition of protection under Brexit.

    This article was published online by The Guardian on May 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Conversation

    Why is the academic consensus on the cost of Brexit being ignored?

    Two issues dominate the EU referendum debate: economics and immigration. When it comes to my field of economics, polling evidence suggests that if people became convinced that they would be worse off by leaving, even if it was by quite modest amounts such as £100 a year, the majority voting to remain would be pretty large. Studies by economists at the highly respected London School of Economics, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Treasury all suggest that on average we would be worse off by an amount that is more than ten times that £100 figure.

    This article was published online by The Conversation on May 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Jordan Times

    The economic consequences of Brexit

    The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance calculates the long-term costs to Britain of lower trade with the EU could be as high as 9.5 per cent of GDP, while the fall in foreign investment could cost 3.4 per cent of GDP or more.

    This article was published online by The Jordan Times on May 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.02, March 2016.
    Download the accompanying Technical Paper here
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.03, April 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg

    Leaving the EU's Single Market would be a 'one way ticket to a poorer Britain', warns Chancellor

    With major interventions from both the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) joining a line of observers ranging from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to the London School of Economics (LSE), to the leaders of every member of the G20, their unequivocal message has been the same: Britain and its people will be poorer if the UK left the EU.

    This article appeared on Bloomberg on 16 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Economia

    The economic consequences of a UK exit from the EU

    The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance calculates that the long-term costs to Britain of lower trade with the EU could be as high as 9.5% of GDP, while the fall in foreign investment could cost 3.4% of GDP or more. Those costs alone dwarf the potential gains from a British exit. The UK's net contribution to the EU budget amounted to only 0.35% of GDP last year, and scrapping EU regulation would bring limited benefits, because the UK's labour and product markets are already among the freest in the world.

    This article was published by Economia on May 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.02, March 2016.
    Download the accompanying Technical Paper here
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Mainly Macro blog

    Brexit, immigration and £100

    With so many heavyweights, from Barack Obama to Mark Carney, saying that we will be worse off with Brexit, why are the polls still neck and neck? There seem to me two reasonable explanations: that the tabloid media have a strong influence, and that immigration is a big issue among voters. But perhaps the two are connected, for reasons that will become clear. ... For a very good and simple explanation of the facts about recent EU immigration, see this LSE analysis.

    This article was published online in the Mainly Macro blog on May 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Associated CEP articles
    Immigration from the EU is not a 'necessary evil' and does not drag down wages, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, LSE BrexitVote blog, May 11, 2016

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]