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News for Trade

Press coverage involving Trade staff or research is listed below.

London Review of Books

What would it be like?

Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon on the realities of a No Deal Brexit

More than two years after the referendum, there is still a possibility that the UK will fail to reach a withdrawal agreement and an agreement on future relations with the EU. If a deal cannot be reached by 29 March next year, when the UK will cease to be a member of the EU, the consequences will be severe; many of them will also follow if a withdrawal agreement is reached but not an agreement on future relations...


Related Links:
London Review of Books - What would it be like?

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Scotsman

Brexit and trade: Why stakes for business are so high

The Centre for Economic Performance estimates that a "No-Deal WTO rules only" scenario would reduce the UK's trade with the EU by 40 per cent over ten years, bringing a fall in income per head of 2.6 per cent per year (net of the savings from no membership fees). And if that isn't scary enough, a leaked Civil Service Cross-Whitehall Report has suggested that it will cost the UK 7.7 per cent of GDP over the next decade and a half.


Related Links:
The Scotsman - Brexit and trade: Why stakes for business are so high

Brexit and the UK Economy

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2018      [Back to the Top]

Microeconomic Insights

The economics of density: evidence from the Berlin Wall

Authors: Gabriel Ahlfeldt (London School of Economics), Stephen Redding (Princeton University), Daniel Sturm (London School of Economics), Nikolaus Wolf (Humboldt University Berlin)

The Berlin Wall provides a unique natural experiment for identifying the key sources of urban development. This research, for which its authors have recently been awarded the prestigious Frisch Medal, shows how property prices and economic activity in the east side of West Berlin, close to the historic central business district in East Berlin, began to fall when the city was divided;….

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall by Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm, and Nikolaus Wolf was published by Econometrica in November 2015. 

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm and Nikolaus Wolf SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper No. 118.


Related Links:
Microeconomic Insights - The economics of density: evidence from the Berlin Wall

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Gabriel Ahlfeldt webpage

Stephen Redding webpage

Daniel M. Sturm webpage


News Posted: 09/08/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business and Consultancy news

The impact of Brexit on the UK dairy sector

Given that changes could come into force as soon as March 2019, businesses such as Arla Foods UK have been compelled to start contingency planning, analysing what effect these changes might have on its business, on its farmer owners and above all on British consumers. To give more depth to this analysis, Arla commissioned LSE Consulting to produce a report to analyse the impact of Brexit on the UK dairy sector. The key finding of the report is that without frictionless trade and unfettered access to key skilled workers after Brexit, there will be significant impacts on consumers as supply consumers as supply chain costs go up.       

‘The impact of Brexit on the UK dairy sector’, Jan Bakker and Nikhil Datta, LSE Consulting Report for Arla Foods http://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/assets/documents/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-dairy-sector.pdf            

Coverage of this report has so far included BBC Radio 4, Financial Times, The Guardian, and The Independentamongst others.

     


Related Links:
LSE Business and Consultancy news - The impact of Brexit on the UK dairy sector

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Nikhil Datta webpage

Jan Bakker webpage


News Posted: 23/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

UK economy will suffer more than EU in 'no deal' Brexit scenario, warns IMF

The OECD estimated before the referendum that a WTO Brexit could cost the UK up to 5.1 percent of GDP over 15 years. A study by the London School of Economics estimated a 9.5 per cent hit.


Related Links:
The Independent - UK economy will suffer more than EU in 'no deal' Brexit scenario, warns IMF

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 20/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Dairy products could become 'luxuries' after Brexit, industry warns

 

Non-tariff barriers alone after Brexit could raise the price of dairy products in the UK, which may become “luxuries”, warned a report on Thursday. A study by the London School of Economics Consulting — commissioned by Arla Foods, the dairy co-operative behind Anchor butter and Lurpak spreads — found that delays at the border between the UK and the European Union and reduced access to key industry workers could restrict the availability of butter, yoghurts and cheeses, and cause price rises.


Related Links:
Financial Times - Dairy products could become 'luxuries' after Brexit, industry warns

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Jan Bakker webpage

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 19/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Trump in the UK

Dr Swati Dhingra interviewed, talking about CEOs' meeting with President Trump and the importance of the trading relationship between the US and the UK, particularly given the prospect of a post-Brexit trade deal.


Related Links:
BBC News - Trump in the UK

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 12/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Currency unions mean more trade, but not for everyone

Article by Natalie Chen and Dennis Novy. Currency unions usually go hand in hand with deeper economic integration. But does that automatically mean more international trade? This column shows that since the end of WWII, currency unions have on average been associated with 40% more trade between member countries. The ‘thin’ relationships between countries who do not trade much with each other benefit the most from currency unions, with little in the way of a boost for more established trading relationships. 


Related Links:
Vox - Currency unions mean more trade, but not for everyone

Currency Unions, Trade and Heterogeneity

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 09/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe press release

What the government's Brexit white paper must address

 

A detailed assessment of what the government must address in its Brexit white paper has been carried out by academic think tank The UK in a Changing Europe.  The report – The Brexit white paper: what it must address – includes a chapter by CEP's Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra on 'Trade, regulation and non-tariff barriers'.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe press release - What the government's Brexit white paper must address

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 09/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

Research Highlights - Wealth Creator

What makes cities thrive? Is it proximity to natural resources like rivers, oceans or energy reserves? Or does the cumulative effect of population increases stimulate waves of economic activity such as restaurants, bars and shops?  Because of the complex history of many cities, identifying the source of their development is notoriously difficult. But a group of urban economists have developed a model that shows the positive relationship between economic activity and urban density, and predicts how further development will change a city and its surrounding areas.  Such is the scale of their achievement, Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Stephen Redding, Daniel Sturm, and Nikolaus Wolf, who began the project almost a decade ago at LSE, have received the Frisch Medal, one of the most prestigious prizes in economics. 


Related Links:
LSE News - Research Highlights - Wealth Creator

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Gabriel Ahlfeldt webpage

Stephen Redding webpage

Daniel M. Sturm webpage


News Posted: 02/07/2018      [Back to the Top]

Vox

The economics of Brexit

2 years on from the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU, substantial questions about the path to Brexit remain. In this special edition of Vox Talks, Tim Phillips talks to Swati Dhingra, Karl Whelan, and Luc Frieden about how the process of Brexit negotiation is itself impacting UK households already, from food price inflation to bilateral trade relations across Europe. The data suggests these effects are not transitory, but will persist beyond the current climate of policy uncertainty.


Related Links:
Vox - The economics of Brexit

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 29/06/2018      [Back to the Top]

The New York Times

Airbus tells Britain it wants details of a Brexit deal, or else

Many businesses “are going to think very hard before choosing the U.K. if they don’t know whether it will be part of the integrated market” of the European Union, said Thomas Sampson, a lecturer at the London School of Economics. Airbus’s decision to publicize its stance, Mr. Sampson said, suggested that it didn’t feel the government was listening to its private appeals. “It’s another signal,” he continued, “of how unhappy the business community is.”

 


Related Links:
The New York Times - Airbus tells Britain it wants details of a Brexit deal, or else

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

Article by Josh De Lyon, Elsa Leromain and Maria Molina-Domene:  The Brexit debate is intense and continues to dominate the UK policy agenda. It concerns the entire population. The authors use Twitter data to characterise the online discussion. The data shows that politics is the core topic for Twitter users who post about Brexit. Interestingly, the overall sentiment around Brexit appears to be quite stable over time and people continue to be divided.

  


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Josh De lyon webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Maria Molina-domene webpage


News Posted: 21/06/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Times

Call time on this unfair union

By sticking with the UK, the London School of Economics estimated Scotland will be £30bn worse off after Brexit, and the Bank of England reckoned incomes will be 900 a year less  .


Related Links:
The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Community CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/06/2018      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera

Dennis Novy

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview o n Al Jazeera on the latest US/China/EU trade disputes. Dennis discussed the economic effects of tariffs on consumers, as well as the potential consequences for the institutional architecture of international trade policy, in particular NAFTA and the World Trade Organization.


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 03/06/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Huffington Global

On free speech, liberal dinosaurs, universal basic income and a video contest

• A commentary on how to help the those hurt by trade  Paul Samuelson, a Nobel prize-winning trade economist, argued in 1941 that globalisation causes economic hardship for some. He wrote that the losers from globalisation need to be compensated to address increases in inequality. Yet this has never really happened. Addressing hardships requires both redistribution and regulation, writes Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics. Read her argument.  Source: The Economist Latest News


Related Links:
The Huffington Global - On free speech, liberal dinosaurs, universal basic income and a video contest

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 02/06/2018      [Back to the Top]

Energy Voice

MEP warns north-east at most risk from Brexit

“If Jeremy Corbyn fails to back this and lets Theresa May drag us out of the single market our party will be abandoning workers in Aberdeen, Inverness and towns across Scotland.” Last year, a London School of Economics report predicted Aberdeen would see the largest reduction in economic output in the UK after Brexit.

            Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10,

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf


Related Links:
Energy Voice - MEP warns north-east at most risk from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Huffington Global

Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them

Article by Swati Dhingra  … Take Brexit, which involves Britain breaking from its largest trading partner, the European Union. The depreciation of sterling which followed the Brexit referendum is already hurting British workers. Forthcoming research from the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE finds that British firms have cut back on training programmes for their workers, in anticipation of reduced trade ties with the EU. Employers provide a large share of skills training, so the Brexit-induced reductions will have a long-term negative impact on human capital and worker earnings—quite the opposite of what the protectionist policy is intended to achieve. 


Related Links:
The Huffington Global - Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 29/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Wall Street Journal (blog

Real time economics: is a tight labor market really, finally generating higher wages?

Silicon Valley and the City of London should give up some of their massive gains from globalization to ensure workers in cities like Detroit and Hull do not continue to fall behind. But… “Addressing the hardship increasingly faced by these workers requires a combination of redistribution and regulation” on an international scale, the London School of Economics’s Swati Dhingra writes in The Economist. That includes generating resources from different international jurisdictions, enforcing worker protections and channeling resources toward policies that offset the deskilling of workers.


Related Links:
Wall Street Journal (blog - Real time economics: is a tight labor market really, finally generating higher wages?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 29/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Press and Journal (Aberdeen)

MEP calls on Labour to act to prevent north-east from being ‘hardest-hit’ by Brexit

“If Jeremy Corbyn fails to back this and lets Theresa May drag us out of the Single Market our party will be abandoning workers in Aberdeen, Inverness and towns and cities across Scotland. That will be a shameful day for Labour.”

Last year, a London School of Economics report predicted that Aberdeen would see the largest reduction in economic output in the UK after Brexit.


Related Links:
The Press and Journal (Aberdeen) - MEP calls on Labour to act to prevent north-east from being ‘hardest-hit’ by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Community CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Wall Street Journal (blog)

Real time economics: is a tight labor market really, finally generating higher wages?

 

Silicon Valley and the City of London should give up some of their massive gains from globalization to ensure workers in cities like Detroit and Hull do not continue to fall behind. But… “Addressing the hardship increasingly faced by these workers requires a combination of redistribution and regulation” on an international scale, the London School of Economics’s Swati Dhingra writes in The Economist. That includes generating resources from different international jurisdictions, enforcing worker protections and channeling resources toward policies that offset the deskilling of workers.


Related Links:
Wall Street Journal (blog) - Real time economics: is a tight labor market really, finally generating higher wages?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 29/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Press and Journal (Aberdeen)

MEP calls on Labour to act to prevent north-east from being ‘hardest-hit’ by Brexit

 

“If Jeremy Corbyn fails to back this and lets Theresa May drag us out of the Single Market our party will be abandoning workers in Aberdeen, Inverness and towns and cities across Scotland. That will be a shameful day for Labour.” Last year, a London School of Economics report predicted that Aberdeen would see the largest reduction in economic output in the UK after Brexit. 


Related Links:
The Press and Journal (Aberdeen) - MEP calls on Labour to act to prevent north-east from being ‘hardest-hit’ by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Community CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them

Addressing hardships requires both redistribution and regulation, writes Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics  Workers remain exposed to hardship from changes in their economic environment. Many have argued that these disparities have polarised people and contributed to the current rise in nationalist politics. The common solution suggested by some politicians is that putting up protectionist barriers will undo the economic damage suffered by those who lost out earlier. This is not what is happening. Protectionism is not undoing the losses; it is de-skilling workers even more. Take Brexit, which involves Britain breaking from its largest trading partner, the European Union. The depreciation of sterling which followed the Brexit referendum is already hurting British workers. Forthcoming research from the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE finds that British firms have cut back on training programmes for their workers, in anticipation of reduced trade ties with the EU. Employers provide a large share of skills training, so the Brexit-induced reductions will have a long-term negative impact on human capital and worker earnings—quite the opposite of what the protectionist policy is intended to achieve.


Related Links:
The Economist - Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 28/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them

Addressing hardships requires both redistribution and regulation, writes Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics  Workers remain exposed to hardship from changes in their economic environment. Many have argued that these disparities have polarised people and contributed to the current rise in nationalist politics. The common solution suggested by some politicians is that putting up protectionist barriers will undo the economic damage suffered by those who lost out earlier. This is not what is happening. Protectionism is not undoing the losses; it is de-skilling workers even more. Take Brexit, which involves Britain breaking from its largest trading partner, the European Union. The depreciation of sterling which followed the Brexit referendum is already hurting British workers. Forthcoming research from the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE finds that British firms have cut back on training programmes for their workers, in anticipation of reduced trade ties with the EU. Employers provide a large share of skills training, so the Brexit-induced reductions will have a long-term negative impact on human capital and worker earnings—quite the opposite of what the protectionist policy is intended to achieve.  


Related Links:
The Economist - Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them

CEP Trade


News Posted: 28/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Express online

‘Like a house of cards FALLING DOWN’ – Think tank RIP APART PM’s customs partnership plan

THE LUDICROUS customs partnership arrangement preferred by Remainers as a solution to the Ireland border post-Brexit has been torn apart by a London based think thank who have argued the plan is almost impossible to make work in reality.  A customs partnership is being considered by the Prime Minister along with a maximum facilitation solution. Boris Johnson and HMRC have both previously rubbished Mrs May’s preferred border option and now the UK in a Changing Europe has slapped down the Tory leader. Thomas Sampson, who is also Professor at the London School of Economics, described the plan as being like “a house of cards that comes falling down” while ripping apart the negotiating position. Talking about the idea with journalists, including Express.co.uk, he said: “The idea is that in order to avoid the kind of border frictions that leaving the EU would create, the UK would replicate the EU’s external border.”


Related Links:
Express online - ‘Like a house of cards FALLING DOWN’ – Think tank RIP APART PM’s customs partnership plan

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Express online

‘Like a house of cards FALLING DOWN’ – Think tank RIP APART PM’s customs partnership plan

 

THE LUDICROUS customs partnership arrangement preferred by Remainers as a solution to the Ireland border post-Brexit has been torn apart by a London based think thank who have argued the plan is almost impossible to make work in reality.  A customs partnership is being considered by the Prime Minister along with a maximum facilitation solution. Boris Johnson and HMRC have both previously rubbished Mrs May’s preferred border option and now the UK in a Changing Europe has slapped down the Tory leader. Thomas Sampson, who is also Professor at the London School of Economics, described the plan as being like “a house of cards that comes falling down” while ripping apart the negotiating position. Talking about the idea with journalists, including Express.co.uk, he said: “The idea is that in order to avoid the kind of border frictions that leaving the EU would create, the UK would replicate the EU’s external border.”

  


Related Links:
Express online - ‘Like a house of cards FALLING DOWN’ – Think tank RIP APART PM’s customs partnership plan

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

World Economic Forum

Are towns stuck in the wrong places?

Article by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch  The world is urbanising rapidly (World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision). Some of its rapidly growing cities, however, seem to be misplaced. They are located in places hampered by poor access to world markets, shortages of water, or vulnerability to flooding, earthquakes, and volcanoes. This outcome – cities being stuck in the wrong places – has dire economic and social consequences. When thinking about policy responses, a key research question is whether historical events can leave towns trapped in suboptimal places.  ∙ New research on a historical ‘experiment’ Our recent research looks at this issue by comparing the evolution of two initially similar urban networks following a historical calamity that wiped out one, while leaving the other largely intact (Michaels and Rauch 2013). The specific setting in which we examine this is northwestern Europe, where we trace out the effects of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire more than 1500 years ago, through to the present day.

 

Related publications

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, The Economic Journal, Volume 128, Issue 608, February 2018

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecoj.12424


Related Links:
World Economic Forum - Are towns stuck in the wrong places?

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 24/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

World Economic Forum

Are towns stuck in the wrong places?

 

Article by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch  The world is urbanising rapidly (World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision). Some of its rapidly growing cities, however, seem to be misplaced. They are located in places hampered by poor access to world markets, shortages of water, or vulnerability to flooding, earthquakes, and volcanoes. This outcome – cities being stuck in the wrong places – has dire economic and social consequences. When thinking about policy responses, a key research question is whether historical events can leave towns trapped in suboptimal places.   New research on a historical ‘experiment’ Our recent research looks at this issue by comparing the evolution of two initially similar urban networks following a historical calamity that wiped out one, while leaving the other largely intact (Michaels and Rauch 2013). The specific setting in which we examine this is northwestern Europe, where we trace out the effects of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire more than 1500 years ago, through to the present day.


Related Links:
World Economic Forum - Are towns stuck in the wrong places?

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Ferdinand Rauch webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 24/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Econometric Society – news

Professor Daniel Sturm and co-authors awarded the 2018 Frisch Medal

Congratulations to Professor Daniel Sturm and his co-authors Dr Gabriel AhlfeldtProfessor Steve Redding, and Professor Nikolaus Wolf for being awarded the 2018 Frisch Medal for their paper “The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall”, published in Econometrica. First awarded in 1978, the Frisch Medal is presented biennially for the best applied (empirical or theoretical) paper published in Econometrica during the previous five years. 

Related publications

‘The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall’, Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm and Nikolaus Wolf, Econometrica, Volume 83, issue 6, November 2015

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.3982/ECTA10876

‘The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall’, Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm and Nikolaus Wolf, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1154, June 2012

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1154.pdf

‘The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall’, Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm and Nikolaus Wolf, SERC Discussion Paper No.118, September 2012

http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0118.pdf


Related Links:
The Econometric Society – news - Professor Daniel Sturm and co-authors awarded the 2018 Frisch Medal

CEP Trade

Daniel M. Sturm webpage

Gabriel Ahlfeldt webpage

Stephen Redding webpage


News Posted: 24/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Roman Abramovich and Britain’s next crusade

A paper from the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics estimated that Brexit could lead to a 22 percent fall in FDI over the next decade, causing a 3.4 percent decline in real income. As Britain prepares to leave the European Union, its economy needs to hold on to as much foreign capital as possible.

Related publications

‘The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analyses Paper No.3, April 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03.pdf


Related Links:
Bloomberg - Roman Abramovich and Britain’s next crusade

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 22/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

FarmingUK

US-UK FTA could 'destroy large parts of British farming', report warns

Swati Dhingra, Lecturer at the London School of Economics, adds that the UK might be more likely to lower agricultural tariffs than the EU was during TTIP. “Historically Europe has been more concerned with protecting farming than the UK,” she told the report.

Also in:

Bilaterals.org

US-UK FTA could ’destroy large parts of British farming’, report warns

Swati Dhingra, Lecturer at the London School of Economics, adds that the UK might be more likely to lower agricultural tariffs than the EU was during TTIP. “Historically Europe has been more concerned with protecting farming than the UK,” she told the report.

https://www.bilaterals.org/?us-uk-fta-could-destroy-large


Related Links:
FarmingUK - US-UK FTA could 'destroy large parts of British farming', report warns

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Harvard Kennedy School

On the Rebound: Prospects for a US-UK Free Trade Agreement

M-RCBG Associate Working Paper No. 89, Peter Sands, Ed Balls, Mehek Sethi, Eleanor Hallam, Sebastian Leape, Nyasha Weinberg, 2018.

Paper interviewed and quotes Nikhil Datta, Swati Dhingra and Dennis Novy

 

Related links:

Datta, N. and Dhingra, S., What next for US-Europe trade policy?, Vox, 16 July 2017. https://voxeu.org/article/what-next-us-europe-trade-policy

Novy, D., quoted in: UK Parliament International Trade Committee, UK-US Trade Relations Report, 1 May 2018. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/481/48102.htm

Novy, D., Written submission to the UK International Trade Select Committee (TER0002), 10 November 2017. http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocume nt/international-trade-committee/ukus-trade-relations/written/72884.html

 


Related Links:
Harvard Kennedy School - On the Rebound: Prospects for a US-UK Free Trade Agreement

Beyond Tariff Reductions: What Extra Boost From Trade Agreement Provisions?

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 15/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Spinning global Britain

The LSE’s Josh de Lyon examines the models behind the competing analyses of the economic consequences of Brexit. Forecasts are not “useless” as some might claim, but the true effect is difficult to gauge because the economy is shaped by a wide variety of factors, many of which are unrelated to Brexit. (LSE Brexit blog)

Related article

‘How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?’, Josh De Lyon, LSE Brexit blog, March 13, 2018

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/13/how-useful-are-the-estimates-of-the-economic-consequences-of-brexit/


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Spinning global Britain

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage


News Posted: 13/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

BBC Newcastle [5:25:13 pm]

Broadcast

Mention of LSE research on the cost of a no-deal Brexit.

Click to open


Related Links:
The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Community CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 09/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Hindu

Secularising Europe’s economy

It is widely known that the Protestant Reformation, which was launched by popular reformers like Martin Luther and John Calvin in the 16th century, brought about an abrupt end to the massive and unquestioned powers of the Catholic Church. What is not fully appreciated, however, is the role that the Reformation played in secularising the European economy. This is elaborated in a forthcoming paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, “Religious competition and reallocation: The political economy of secularisation in the Protestant Reformation”, by Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar and Noam Yuchtman.

Related publications

Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation , Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar, Noam Yuchtman , NBER Working Paper No. 23934.October 2017.


Related Links:
The Hindu - Secularising Europe’s economy

Reallocation and Secularization: The Economic Consequences of the Protestant Reformation

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Jeremiah Dittmar webpage


News Posted: 08/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

Video Vox

The UK productivity puzzle

What is the UK productivity puzzle? Ten years on from the Global Crisis, productivity growth in the UK lags behind that in economies such as France and Germany. Giordano Mion shares his work on why this ‘productivity puzzle’ exists. The production capacity of manufacturers has not fallen much since 2008, but demand has faltered.  This video was recorded at the 2018 RES Conference.


Related Links:
Video Vox - The UK productivity puzzle

CEP Trade

Giordano Mion webpage


News Posted: 07/05/2018      [Back to the Top]

CEP mentions in Parliament

LSE Research mentioned in Lords Committee

Professor Menon from KCL referenced LSE research in his appearance before the Lords EU Sub-Cttee looking at Brexit and the value of the Commons Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions to the UK's foreign policy goals. Professor Menon said "economists at the LSE predicted a few months ago that the impact economically of our leaving the single market and the customs union will be approximately 3% of GDP year on year" in an exchange on forecasting. The session took place in January and the transcript was published this week. 


Related Links:
CEP mentions in Parliament - LSE Research mentioned in Lords Committee

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/04/2018      [Back to the Top]

CEP mentions in Parliament

International Trade Committee chair references LSE blog

In a one-off session on the economic effects of trade policy Angus MacNeil (SNP), Chair of the International Trade Cttee, referenced a recent LSE blog which suggested that there was a consensus between leading economists that Brexit would make the UK worse off. The Chair went on to ask the witnesses how broad this consensus was. Professor Smith of University of Sussex replied that this was a pretty broad consensus made up of economists at LSE, the National Institute of Social and Economic Research and Sussex University.

Related article

‘How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?’. Article by Josh De Lyon, LSE Brexit blog, March 13, 2018

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/13/how-useful-are-the-estimates-of-the-economic-consequences-of-brexit/


Related Links:
CEP mentions in Parliament - International Trade Committee chair references LSE blog

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage


News Posted: 27/04/2018      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe blog

Article 50 one year on: the UK economy – initial evidence

Article by Thomas Sampson.  The full economic impacts of Brexit will not materialise for many years. But 21 months after the UK voted to leave the EU, we can assess how the Brexit vote has begun to affect the British economy. Even though the UK remains in the EU, the vote has already had economic impacts. Economic behaviour depends not only on what is happening now, but what people and businesses expect to happen in the future. The referendum changed expectations about the future of the UK’s economic relations with the EU and the rest of the world. There are two parts to this. First, uncertainty has increased. Even now, it remains unclear what exactly the UK’s relationship with the EU will look like after Brexit and how policymaking in the UK will change. This uncertainty makes businesses less willing to invest in risky new projects leading to lower output growth. Second, Brexit is likely to make the UK less open to trade, investment and immigration with the EU. Even before Brexit happens, this could make the UK a less attractive destination for foreign investment and reduce the incentive for businesses to invest in expanding UK-EU trade.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe blog - Article 50 one year on: the UK economy – initial evidence

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/04/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Blog - British Politics & Policy

Kwasi Kwarteng: Does the UK need its own infrastructure bank?

Several commentators have suggested that a domestic infrastructure bank could fill the void if the UK was unable to access EIB support. The LSE Growth Commission have promoted the creation of such an institution arguing that it would ‘help to reduce policy risk and…make investments that could then provide powerful examples with catalytic effects on private investment’. Indeed, examples from around the world demonstrate the success of such institutions.

Related publications

‘Investing for Prosperity: Skills, Infrastructure and Innovation’, Philippe Aghion, Tim Besley, John Browne, Francesco Caselli, Richard Lambert, Rachel Lomax, Chris Pissarides, Nick Stern and John Van Reenen, LSE Growth Commission Report, January 2013http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/units/growthCommission/documents/pdf/LSEGC-Report.pdf

Related links

LSE Growth Commission website:  http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/units/growthCommission/home.aspx

 


Related Links:
LSE Blog - British Politics & Policy - Kwasi Kwarteng: Does the UK need its own infrastructure bank?

Investing for Prosperity: Skills, Infrastructure and Innovation

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Timothy Besley webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/04/2018      [Back to the Top]

Lavoce.info (Italy)

Productivity size weighs on productivity

Article by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Sara Calligaris, Stefano Costa e Chiara Criscuolo.  In Italy, medium-large and large companies are productive and competitive. The problem is that they are few compared to other countries. And the most productive ones employ on average about one third of the employees employed in the corresponding European companies. 


Related Links:
Lavoce.info (Italy) - Productivity size weighs on productivity

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage

Chiara Criscuolo webpage


News Posted: 10/04/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Britain is already paying a price for voting to leave the EU

  Article by Thomas Sampson.  The full economic consequences of Brexit will not be realised for many years. But 21 months after the referendum, we can start to assess how the Brexit vote has impacted the British economy. Thomas Sampson (LSE’s CEP) summarises what we know so far. ...  A version of this blog was first published as part of the UK in a Changing Europe’s report Article 50: one year on.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Britain is already paying a price for voting to leave the EU

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 05/04/2018      [Back to the Top]

Daily Mirror

Rees-Mogg’s threat to oust May over Brexit

 

…Ex-Tory Cabinet Minister Chris Patten said he was a “caricature” with no idea about trade deals. Brexit may cost us £1,700 a year each, says the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 28/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

The trade impact of the transatlantic telegraph

The telegraph was the Victorian equivalent of today’s ‘big data’, helping firms to forecast future demand, writes Claudia Steinwender.  How do exporters gather information about overseas markets and forecast consumer demand for their products? What do they do if technology suddenly makes it possible to get access to better and more timely information? And what is the overall impact on prices, market integration and trade flows? These are challenging questions in the modern world of the internet and ‘big data’, where the vast amount of new information that firms can collect on consumers could have a significant impact on global economic interactions. In a recent study, I have looked back to Victorian times to see what can be learned from the introduction of the transatlantic telegraph cable that connected Europe and North America.

Related publications

‘Real Effects of Information Frictions: When the States and the Kingdom Became United’, Claudia Steinwender, American Economic Review, Vol. 108, No. 3, March 2018

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150681

doi:  10.1257/aer.20150681


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - The trade impact of the transatlantic telegraph

Victorian internet: the trade impact of the transatlantic telegraph

CEP Trade

Claudia Steinwender webpage


News Posted: 20/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

In this blog, Josh De Lyon (LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance) discusses some of the concerns with the economic forecasts of the effects of Brexit and suggests that the available reports are informative of the likely consequences of Brexit. He also provides an insight into how such research should be interpreted, beyond the headline-grabbing figures reported in the news.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage


News Posted: 13/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

Vox

The consumer benefits of trade agreements: Evidence from the EU trade policy

Article by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Holger Breinlich and Swati Dhingra:  There has been a surge in the number of trade agreements over the past two decades. This column investigates the impact of trade agreements implemented by the EU between 1993 and 2013 and asks how consumers benefit from such agreements. The evidence shows that trade agreements increased quality by 7% on average but did not affect prices or variety. This translates into a cumulative reduction in consumer prices of 0.24%, equivalent to savings of €24 billion per year for EU consumers. Higher-income EU countries enjoyed much stronger quality increases and larger overall consumer benefits.


Related Links:
Vox - The consumer benefits of trade agreements: Evidence from the EU trade policy

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 12/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Irish News

DUP openly supporting further division in our divided land

Opinion – Letters to the Editor:  Alastair Hamilton must acknowledge Brexit realities Writing in the Huffington Post Invest NI chief executive Alastair Hamilton has described the concern that Brexit would be an “economic calamity” as “fiction”. This is a remarkable contention given that many impact assessments including those by the Department for the Economy, the British Treasury and the London School of Economics agree that economic growth will suffer in the event of Brexit. But Mr Hamilton does not cite any actual studies. Nor does he refer to the possibility of our trade with the EU being disrupted by tariff and non-tariff barriers. He also ignores the implications for farmers who depend on EU funding. The prospect of universities losing students, staff and research funding is omitted. The pivotal issue of the border is not even mentioned.


Related Links:
The Irish News - DUP openly supporting further division in our divided land

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 07/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

Newburgh Gazette (USA)

Brexit: a three course meal or a packet of crisps?

Brussels is anxious that Britain's exit from the Customs Union will be a step back in terms of free trade. "If you're in, you're in", said Thomas Sampson, an expert in global trade at the London School of Economics. With his endorsement of customs union, Corbyn has addressed the inevitable choice - and greatly increased the pressure on the government to rouse itself from its cake-filled pipe-dreams and do so as well.


Related Links:
Newburgh Gazette (USA) - Brexit: a three course meal or a packet of crisps?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 03/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

Servizio Informazione Religiosa (Italy)

Brexit: May, speech at Mansion House. Comments by Breinlich (economist) and Longley (journalist). "EU will reject the premier's proposal"

(London) "I do not see how the proposals of Prime Minister Theresa May can be accepted by the European Union". Word of Holger Breinlich, economist, lecturer at the "London School of Economics", one of the UK's leading experts on Brexit. "The single market does not allow the various countries to choose the most convenient parts", explains the professor, "or one is in or out." In short, the vision of Brexit that the conservative leader proposed today, speaking at the Mansion House, would not be realistic. "The only possible options are the Norwegian or Canadian model and if the United Kingdom refuses them both will end up losing access to the European market".

Related links

Holger Breinlich CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=breinlich


Related Links:
Servizio Informazione Religiosa (Italy) - Brexit: May, speech at Mansion House. Comments by Breinlich (economist) and Longley (journalist). "EU will reject the premier's proposal"

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

Chronicle Live (Northumberland)

Here's what the North East needs to hear from Theresa May on Brexit

That’s helped to boost growth and employment, but now it means that regions like the north east are vulnerable to any increase in barriers to trade, as demonstrated by recent research at the University of Birmingham. And analysis for the London School of Economics shows that some of the north east’s main industries – including chemicals, transport manufacturing and retail – could face challenges even under a fairly ‘soft’ Brexit scenario.


Related Links:
Chronicle Live (Northumberland) - Here's what the North East needs to hear from Theresa May on Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Many multinationals may pull out of the UK If it leaves the Customs Union

As March 2019 draws closer, the UK government remains divided over the type of trade relationship it wants to achieve in the ongoing negotiations with the EU. Paola Conconi (ULB/LSE) explains why Japanese multinationals may pull out of the UK in case of a hard Brexit, one which would mean there is no kind of customs union with the EU.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Many multinationals may pull out of the UK If it leaves the Customs Union

From Final Goods to Inputs: The Protectionist Effect of Rules of Origin

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage


News Posted: 28/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

Keene Sentinel (USA)

Jeremy Corbyn urges a soft Brexit, putting Theresa May in a hard spot

The problem for hard-line Brexiteers is that the European customs union dictates that all trade deals between the bloc and the outside world are negotiated by the European Union, not the individual member states. "There's no bilateral trade deals in a customs union" — no Germany-China deals or Britain-U.S. deals. "If you're in, you're in," said Thomas Sampson, an expert in international trade at the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Keene Sentinel (USA) - Jeremy Corbyn urges a soft Brexit, putting Theresa May in a hard spot

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Washington Post online

Jeremy Corbyn urges a soft Brexit, putting Theresa May in a hard spot

The problem for hard-line Brexiteers is that the European customs union dictates that all trade deals between the bloc and the outside world be negotiated by the European Union, not the individual member states. “There’s no bilateral trade deals in a customs union” — no Germany-China deals or Britain-U. S. deals. “If you’re in, you’re in,” said Thomas Sampson, an expert in international trade at the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
The Washington Post online - Jeremy Corbyn urges a soft Brexit, putting Theresa May in a hard spot

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

Promarket.org

Guns and votes: the victory of an intense minority against an apathetic majority

Article by Laurent Bouton, Paola Conconi, Francisco Pino, Maurizio Zanardi

This column on the “gun-control paradox”—the fact that gun regulations continually fail in the US Congress despite being supported by around 90 percent of US citizens—appeared in 2013 on VoxEU.org after the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary and was republished in 2017 after the Las Vegas mass shooting. Following the Parkland mass shooting, we are republishing it with a new preface by one of the coauthors.  Editor’s note: We asked coauthor Paola Conconi after the Las Vegas massacre of October 2017 for an update on her research on collective action problems in arms regulation and political economy in general. Conconi responded as follows:  The mass-shootings in Las Vegas and Texas raise once again questions about the lack of regulatory response to gun violence in the United States. The same questions were asked after every tragedy (Orlando, at Virginia Tech, Newtown, …). My answer is always the same: politicians respond to the interests of a minority of voters who are intensely against even mild regulations, rather than listening to a majority of the electorate who is in favor of gun regulations but has other policy priorities.

Related articles

Vox [6 October 2013]

Guns and votes

https://voxeu.org/article/guns-and-votes


Related Links:
Promarket.org - Guns and votes: the victory of an intense minority against an apathetic majority

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage


News Posted: 22/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

LSE Thinks - video

Dr Thomas Sampson - Why are the Conservatives so divided over Brexit?

Theresa May and her senior ministers try to come to an agreement over the government's approach to Brexit, in the latest of a series of meetings on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. As part of the LSEthinks series, Dr Thomas Sampson of the Department of Economics and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) outlines the trading options on the table for the government, and explains why agreement on the EU remains a challenge for the government.  


Related Links:
LSE Thinks - video - Dr Thomas Sampson - Why are the Conservatives so divided over Brexit?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

CityMetric

Aberdeen’s slowdown shows the dangers of being a one-industry town

When we consider these findings in light of research published last July by Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance – which suggested that Aberdeen's economy would be hit harder than that of any other city by either a 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit – It all adds up to a worrying picture.


Related Links:
CityMetric - Aberdeen’s slowdown shows the dangers of being a one-industry town

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 15/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

The old normal - Your weekly briefing on the UK economy

Last week’s highlights - Assessing the impact assessments - Almost all of the interesting results you get out of modelling Brexit are down to the judgments and assumptions you put in, said Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, to the Institute for Government last week. But as the government’s models are being kept under lock and key in Whitehall all we have so far are hints of the results and no idea of what the government are putting in. Our Westminster team report the models say that Remain-voting areas will get off lightly (an opposite conclusion to work done by the London School of Economics), retailers will suffer the most from higher barriers to trade and new trade deals with non-European countries will provide very limited benefits.


Related Links:
Financial Times - The old normal - Your weekly briefing on the UK economy

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 11/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

Knowledge

Why the multinationals that influence the world are born

Business groups rule the global economy. Data show that about 70% of the global international trade is linked to multinational groups and about a third is linked to companies belonging to the same multinational group. These large groups with hundreds of subsidiaries all over the world influence macroeconomic phenomena. But why do they decide to perform their activities through subsidiaries? And which hierarchical structure do they choose?   Carlo Altomonte (Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management) and Gianmarco Ottaviano (Department of Economics) provide an answer in the paper co-authored with Armando Rungi Business Groups as Knowledge-based Hierarchies. The choice to organize economic activities as a business group rather than an integrated entity is driven by a series of trade-offs between competitive advantages and knowledge dispersion. The authors provide an empirical support exploiting a dataset including 270,000 parent companies controlling more than 1,500,000 subsidiaries worldwide. “The make-or-buy decision is usually studied in relation to outsourcing”, Altamonte says. “We applied it to parent companies performing their activities through legally autonomous companies under their control. We found that it is more likely that a company will organize itself through subsidiaries when it operates in a context where intellectual property rights are protected. However, given the risk of knowledge dispersion, the same company does not use independent external subcontractors”.   The authors also investigate business groups’ hierarchical structure. “A vertical group is more likely to emerge than an horizontal one if the parent company faces lower communication costs between its hierarchical layers. Routine production problems are dealt with by subsidiaries lower in the group’s hierarchy. The activities become increasingly complex as we get near to the parent company”. This is the case of Alphabet Inc, the multinational conglomerate that owns Google. The most innovative companies such as Deep Mind (artificial intelligence research and application) and Waymo (the self-driving car project) are hierarchically closer to the parent.


Related Links:
Knowledge - Why the multinationals that influence the world are born

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 09/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

Centre for Cities – blog

Aberdeen’s economic slowdown highlights the dangers of being a one-sector city

Moreover, when we consider these findings in light of research published last July by Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance, which suggested that Aberdeen’s economy would be hit harder than that of any other city by either a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit, it all adds up to a worrying picture for Aberdeen.


Related Links:
Centre for Cities – blog - Aberdeen’s economic slowdown highlights the dangers of being a one-sector city

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Education and Skills CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 09/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

•The Economic Journal, Volume 128, Issue 608, February 2018

Resetting the Urban Network: 117–2012 (pages 378-412)

  • DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12424

Related Links:
•The Economic Journal, Volume 128, Issue 608, February 2018 - Resetting the Urban Network: 117–2012 (pages 378-412)

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 05/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Telegraph

The EU refuses a soft Brexit, so we must invoke the WTO immediately

An authoritative report last year by a team under MIT trade expert John Van Reenen for the Centre for Economic Performance estimated that a WTO option would cut British living standards by 2.7pc over time. But it pushed the losses to a range of 6.3pc to 9.4pc once “dynamic” effects are included. This is to rely heavily on the “black box” of productivity, a malleable concept. I would presume that the Treasury uses the same method since Prof Van Reenen once advised them.


Related Links:
The Telegraph - The EU refuses a soft Brexit, so we must invoke the WTO immediately

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 01/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

Economics Department News – LSE

Dr Swati Dhingra awarded an ERC Starting Grant

Swati Dhingra has been awared a European Research Council Starting Grant for the BIGlobal project, which will examine the sources of firm growth and market power to provide new insights into welfare and policy in a globalised world.

The project will determine how firm decisions matter for the aggregate gains from globalisation, the division of these gains across different individuals and their implications for policy design.

January 2018


Related Links:
Economics Department News – LSE - Dr Swati Dhingra awarded an ERC Starting Grant

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 01/02/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Morning Call

Anthony Patrick O’Brien: Why immigration is good for the U.S. economy

Gianmarco Ottaviano of the London School of Economics and Giovanni Peri of UC, Davis, looking at U.S. labor markets, estimate that between 1990 and 2006 new immigrants reduced wages of previous immigrants by about 7 percent but did not affect wages of native-born workers. This study has its critics as well. Given the difficulty of separating the effect of immigration from other factors determining wages, economists may never settle this issue. But it seems unlikely that immigration has had much impact on wages.

Related publications

‘Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages’, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Giovanni Peri, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 10, Issue 1, February 2012

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x/abstract

‘Immigration, Offshoring, and American Jobs’, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri and Greg C. Wright, American Economic Review, Volume 103, No.5, August 2013

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.103.5.1925


Related Links:
The Morning Call - Anthony Patrick O’Brien: Why immigration is good for the U.S. economy

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 30/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Times (Northern Ireland)

Brexit dogma must be challenged

The intervention in the Brexit debate by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) this week, coming out in support of Britain remaining in a customs union, is timely. ... The idea that a UK free to negotiate unilaterally its own trade deals with the rest of the world will deliver an economic windfall is deeply misguided. In fact, analysis by the London School of Economics presents a depressing alternative vista. The introduction of significant trade barriers between the UK and the EU could seriously disrupt existing trade flows, leading to a fall in UK household income of £1,700 annually. Even a relatively benign outcome to talks could result in annual household income dropping by £850.

Related publications

‘Life after BREXIT: What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analyses, Paper No.1, February 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit01.pdf

 


Related Links:
The Times (Northern Ireland) - Brexit dogma must be challenged

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Gloucestershire Echo

Letters:Brexit aftermath is not rosy

…nearly six years.  The Centre for Economic Performance says that the vote has cost the …


Related Links:
Gloucestershire Echo - Letters:Brexit aftermath is not rosy

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 25/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post – The Blog

For the third time we surveyed MPs on their attitude to Brexit – and the results were fascinating

What is clear is that the thinking on Conservative benches is in sharp contrast to the consensus amongst professional economists. Here, we find a different logic entirely. Leaving the single market and the customs union will make trade with the EU much more costly – even if a post-Brexit EU-UK FTA means we avoid the hardest of hard Brexits.  Swati Dhingra estimates that non-tariff barriers in services have an ad valoram equivalent of between 8.5 and 47.3% when it comes to services trade between the EU and the US. Outside the single market, the UK will be liable to at least some of these costs. In aggregate terms, she estimates that a hard Brexit would directly reduce GDP by about 3% per year due to higher trade barriers – with potential indirect costs that could double or triple this figure.


Related Links:
Huffington Post – The Blog - For the third time we surveyed MPs on their attitude to Brexit – and the results were fascinating

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

IG

What is the economic impact of Brexit?

With the UK due to leave the EU at 11pm on 29 March 2019, countries on both sides of the channel are figuring out what Brexit will mean for their economies. We speak to Panmure Gordon’s David Buik on Brexit, and look at the possible effects on the UK over the coming years…. only the US and China receive more foreign direct investment (FDI) than the UK. FDI is an important factor in productivity, and hence plays a major role in shaping the country’s output and wages. The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance estimates about half of the UK’s FDI comes from other EU members, and flags the UK’s access to the single market as one of the main reasons it is able to attract it from non-EU members.


Related Links:
IG - What is the economic impact of Brexit?

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Law Professors – Antitrust & Competition Policy blog

Efficiency in large markets with firm heterogeneity

Swati Dhingra and John Morrow discuss Efficiency in Large markets with Firm Heterogeneity. ABSTRACT: Empirical work has drawn attention to the high degree of productivity differences within industries, and its role in resource allocation. In a benchmark monopolistically competitive economy, productivity differences introduce two new margins for allocational inefficiency. When markups vary across firms, laissez faire markets do not select the right distribution of firms and the market-determined quantities are inefficient. We show that these considerations determine when increased competition from market expansion takes the economy closer to the socially efficient allocation of resources. As market size grow large, differences in market power across firms converge and the market allocation approaches the efficient allocation of an economy with constant markups.


Related Links:
Law Professors – Antitrust & Competition Policy blog - Efficiency in large markets with firm heterogeneity

Efficiency in Large markets with Firm Heterogeneity

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

John Morrow webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Original 106 FM

(1/15/2018 9:00:24 AM)

Type: Broadcast
Mention of LSE report which said that Aberdeen would be the UK city worst hit by a hard Brexit.


Related Links:
Original 106 FM - (1/15/2018 9:00:24 AM)

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 15/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Original 106 FM

Original 106 FM (7:00:48 AM)

Mention of LSE report which found Aberdeen would be worst hit by a hard Brexit.


Related Links:
Original 106 FM - Original 106 FM (7:00:48 AM)

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 15/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Does London mayor Sadiq Khan’s Brexit report stack up?

A no-deal Brexit would leave Britain’s economy diminished and its people poorer. That is the conclusion of the economic forecast commissioned by the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan from Cambridge Econometrics. It’s not the first report to argue that crashing out of the European Union would be bad for business, but it is one of the most comprehensive and draws on a wide range of existing studies. It concludes: “The more severe the type of Brexit, the greater the negative impact will be on the UK.”… The London School of Economics has showed how changes in tariffs and regulations can change the level of imports and exports. The Cambridge study used this study, but ditched widely held economic law, known as the gravity model, that argues countries trade with their neighbours first and foremost, in favour of simple cause and effect of trade barriers on current business relationships.

Related publications

Greater London Authority – ‘Preparing for Brexit’, Final Report from Cambridge Econometrics, January 2018

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/preparing_for_brexit_final_report.pdf

 

CEP citation references:

Related Links

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp


Related Links:
Guardian - Does London mayor Sadiq Khan’s Brexit report stack up?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: Evidence from British Panel Data

CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 11/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Does London mayor Sadiq Khan's Brexit report stack up?

A no-deal Brexit would leave Britain’s economy diminished and its people poorer. That is the conclusion of the economic forecast commissioned by the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan from Cambridge Econometrics. It’s not the first report to argue that crashing out of the European Union would be bad for business, but it is one of the most comprehensive and draws on a wide range of existing studies. It concludes: “The more severe the type of Brexit, the greater the negative impact will be on the UK.”… The London School of Economics has showed  how changes in tariffs and regulations can change the level of imports and exports. The Cambridge study used this study, but ditched widely held economic law, known as the gravity model, that argues countries trade with their neighbours first and foremost, in favour of simple cause and effect of trade barriers on current business relationships. 

Related publication:  Greater London Authority – ‘Preparing for Brexit’, Final Report from Cambridge Econometrics, January 2018 https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/preparing_for_brexit_final_report.pdf


Related Links:
Guardian - Does London mayor Sadiq Khan's Brexit report stack up?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: Evidence from British Panel Data

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Vox Video

Brexit and living standards

The average British household is already worse off than it was before the Brexit vote. Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson discuss how much of the rise in inflation is due to Brexit. Higher prices are costing the average household £404 a year.


Related Links:
Vox Video - Brexit and living standards

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 08/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Harvard Business School: Working Knowledge – Business research for business leaders

Working Paper Summaries - Come together: Firm boundaries and delegation

By Laura Alfaro, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen

The study develops a simple model and provides new data to examine the relationship between vertical integration and delegation of decision-making, two critical aspects of a firm organizational design that are typically studied in isolation. The results show that delegation and vertical integration are positively correlated.


Related Links:
Harvard Business School: Working Knowledge – Business research for business leaders - Working Paper Summaries - Come together: Firm boundaries and delegation

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Nick Bloom webpage

Paola Conconi webpage

Raffaella Sadun webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 08/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News – Education (Russia)

Thousands of EU professors left Britain because of Brexit

According to the calculations of the Center for Economic Performance (CEP), Brexit will significantly affect inflation, the national currency rate, as well as the income level of the British and the overall quality of their lives. "Brexit on average will cost each family 7.74 pounds per week, which corresponds to a value of up to 404 pounds per year," the authors of the report note.


Related Links:
Sputnik News – Education (Russia) - Thousands of EU professors left Britain because of Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 07/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Western Mail

Blair think-tank expert’s bleak Brexit predictions

AREPORT written by a Welsh political consultant for a thinktank set up by Tony Blair paints a bleak picture of a post-Brexit future. Dafydd Rees, who has held senior positions with the BBC, Sky and Bloomberg, was commissioned to write a paper called Brexit - What We Now Know by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. The former Labour prime minister believes it is still possible for the UK to pull back from leaving the EU, and has argued in favour of another referendum once the terms of Brexit have been finalised. In his report, Mr Rees documents a series of outcomes and predictions that indicate a drop in prosperity for Wales and the UK as a whole because of the vote to leave the EU. He states: "The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded UK growth expectations for the next five years. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says the UK went from the top of the G7 growth league to the bottom in the year following the Brexit vote. "The Centre for Economic Policy Research calculates that the Brexit vote has already cost the UK economy £300m a week. "Food prices are growing at their fastest rate in four years. Inflation is over 3% for the first time in nearly six years. The Centre for Economic Performance says that the Brexit vote has cost the average household £404 a year. … "The Resolution Foundation warns that Britain is on course for the longest period of falling living standards since records began back in the 1950s. Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are already paying the heaviest economic price for Brexit in terms of higher inflation costs, according to the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics."

[No link available]


Related Links:
The Western Mail - Blair think-tank expert’s bleak Brexit predictions

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 05/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Institute for Global Change

Tony Blair: Brexit – what we now know – briefing

Executive summary:

This document sets out some of the key things we have learnt since the referendum. These include:

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded UK growth expectations for the next five years.
  • The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says the UK went from the top of the G7 growth league to the bottom in the year following the Brexit vote.
  • The Centre for Economic Policy Research calculates that the Brexit vote has already cost the UK economy £300m a week.
  • Food prices are growing at their fastest rate in 4 years. Inflation is over 3% for the first time in nearly six years. 
  • The Centre for Economic Performance says that the Brexit vote has cost the average household £404 a year.

 

Living standards

Inflation has picked up sharply since the Brexit vote. It is over 3% for the first time in nearly six years.The result has been a renewed fall in real wages. The Centre for Economic Performance says the impact it has had is close on to a week’s wages for the average worker.

The Centre for Economic Performance says that the Brexit vote has cost the average household £404 a year.

Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are already paying the heaviest economic price for Brexit in terms of higher inflation costs, according to the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

 

Norway model

According to research by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, in 2011 Norway’s contribution to the EU budget was £106 per head capita, only 17% lower than the UK’s EU net contribution for that year of £128 per capita.  

As the CEP observes, “becoming part of the EEA would not generate substantial fiscal savings for the UK government.”

 


Related Links:
Institute for Global Change - Tony Blair: Brexit – what we now know – briefing

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 04/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

States News Service

Brexit – what we now know

The following information was released by the Office of Tony Blair:

Executive summary

The Centre for Economic Performance says that the Brexit vote has cost the average household 404 a year.


Related Links:
States News Service - Brexit – what we now know

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 03/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Debt and interest rates to be consumers’ big worries, say economists

Q: In 2017, consumers’ finances were squeezed by rapidly rising prices. Will 2018 be an easier year for UK households and what are the implications for consumer spending?

A:  Swati Dhingra, assistant professor, London School of Economics - Depends on which form of Brexit, though the exchange rate depreciation component may have already manifested itself in the price index.

A:  John Van Reenan, Gordon Y Billard professor of management and economics, MIT Sloan School of Management - The Brexit-inspired devaluation will work its way through, but continued uncertainty and the prospects of higher trade costs/lower foreign investment will be a drag.


Related Links:
Financial Times - Debt and interest rates to be consumers’ big worries, say economists

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 01/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Portfolio (Hungary)

Pesszimisták a britek a Brexit kellős közepén/Pessimists are the British in the middle of Brexit

The latest forecasts from major London economic research houses seem to provoke pensive respondents. The renowned London Economics University, a study by the London School of Economics (CEP), has shown that the unexpected market and real economy shock of a referendum held in 2016 on the British EU membership , mainly due to the sudden weakening of the pound in the one year after the referendum and by June 2017, resulted in 1.7 percentage points of cumulative inflationary acceleration compared to the inflation rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period.


Related Links:
Portfolio (Hungary) - Pesszimisták a britek a Brexit kellős közepén/Pessimists are the British in the middle of Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

The Scotsman

Leader comment: Let's not jump off a Brexit cliff in 2018

The London School of Economics has estimated that failing to agree a trade deal could cost the UK economy up to £430 billion over five years.


Related Links:
The Scotsman - Leader comment: Let's not jump off a Brexit cliff in 2018

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/01/2018      [Back to the Top]

Nap.hu (Hungary)

Will big pay rise come next year in Hungary?

Large London think tanks have also drawn attention to the real wage erosion in Great Britain. The recent London-based Economics Research Center (CEP), the London-based Economics University of London, has shown that the unexpected market and real economy shock of the last year's referendum on British EU membership, the sudden weakening of the pound in the one year after the referendum by June 2017 resulted in 1.7 percentage points of cumulative inflation acceleration compared to the inflation rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period.


Related Links:
Nap.hu (Hungary) - Will big pay rise come next year in Hungary?

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 29/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Orient Press (Hungary)

The UK trade unions expect a lot from our country

The recent London-based Economics Research Center (CEP), the London-based Economics University of London, has shown that the unexpected market and real economy shock of the last year's referendum on British EU membership, the sudden weakening of the pound in the one year after the referendum by June 2017 resulted in 1.7 percentage points of cumulative inflation acceleration compared to the inflation rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period. According to the model calculations of the Center for Economic Performance experts, the resulting negative real wage effect is equivalent to the fact that the average annual British employee salary would have fallen by 448 pounds (157 thousand forints). According to CEP, this is a typical loss of almost a full working week - exactly 4.4 workdays - for each employee.

 

 


Related Links:
Orient Press (Hungary) - The UK trade unions expect a lot from our country

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 29/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Napi.hu (Hungary)

That’s half of every fifth British employee

The recent study of the London School of Economics (CEP) in London has demonstrated with various model calculations that the unexpected market and real economy shock of a British EU member, who won a narrow majority in the United Kingdom , mainly due to the sudden weakening of the pound in the one year after the referendum and by June 2017, 1.7 percentage points of cumulative inflation acceleration compared to the inflation rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period.


Related Links:
Napi.hu (Hungary) - That’s half of every fifth British employee

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 29/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

International Business Times

What's the point of blue passports if we can't even afford holidays after Brexit?

Brexit analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance recently found that the living standard of every income group in the UK would decrease after Brexit, with those on middle incomes suffering slightly more proportionately than the richest and poorest households.


Related Links:
International Business Times - What's the point of blue passports if we can't even afford holidays after Brexit?

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage


News Posted: 22/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Adevarul.ro (Romania)

The real cost of Brexit for Great Britain: 350 million pounds a week

According to a study by the Financial Times, which analyzed a wide range of estimates and predictions, output in the UK is about 0.9% below the potential for remaining in the single market. In a complementary study by the London School of Economics, it is estimated that the vote for Brexit directly led to an increase in inflation of 1.7-2.7% over the 12 months after the vote. "The rise in inflation as a result of the vote for leaving the Union has already affected all UK families," said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the LSE.


Related Links:
Adevarul.ro (Romania) - The real cost of Brexit for Great Britain: 350 million pounds a week

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Adevarul (Rumania)

The real cost of Brexit for Great Britain: 350 million pounds a week

According to a study by the Financial Times, which analyzed a wide range of estimates and predictions, output in the UK is about 0.9% below the potential for remaining in the single market. In a complementary study by the London School of Economics, it is estimated that the vote for Brexit directly led to an increase in inflation of 1.7-2.7% over the 12 months after the vote. "The rise in inflation as a result of the vote for leaving the Union has already affected all UK families," said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the LSE.


Related Links:
Adevarul (Rumania) - The real cost of Brexit for Great Britain: 350 million pounds a week

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sohu.com (China)

Economic trend tracking (1795) the Federal Reserve rate hit

Swati Dhingra of the Center for Economic Performance at London School of Economics (LSE) said "Inflation data provides the most useful information." She said the overall impact of uncertainty is more difficult to measure. Foreign investment data is too volatile, it is difficult to explain what.


Related Links:
Sohu.com (China) - Economic trend tracking (1795) the Federal Reserve rate hit

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 20/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP mentions in Parliament and on Twitter

Welsh Committee frames question around LSE figures

In a session with the Welsh Secretary, Geraint Davies MP (Lab) referred to the report by Centre for Economic Performance on inflation.  


Related Links:
CEP mentions in Parliament and on Twitter - Welsh Committee frames question around LSE figures

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Iz.ru (Russia)

The EU was told about the multi-billion losses due to Brexit

As the portal iz.ru wrote, according to calculations for the Center for Economic Performance, each British family will lose up to £404 per year because of Brexit. This is due to rising prices for consumer goods with a high proportion of imported component. We are talking about bread, cereals, milk, eggs, cheese, beer, wine, furniture, jewelry and watches.


Related Links:
Iz.ru (Russia) - The EU was told about the multi-billion losses due to Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 19/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Investing.com

Optimistic UK business confidence indicators predict smooth Brexit

The possible options for the long-term economic partnership range along a wide spectrum – from a European Economic Area-type broad-based single market access, through a Canada-type free trade agreement, to the spectre of an abrupt exit from the EU without any deal. Some economists argue that the latter, no-deal scenario would in fact be best for the UK, because that would allow the UK to unilaterally introduce free trade with all countries of the world and deregulate the UK economy. This, in their view, would bring major benefits to the UK. But such views are in minority and received major criticism; see, for example, the clear arguments of Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen. And business leaders intensively lobby for a broad-based trade deal with the EU – rightly so, in my view.

Also in:

Bruegel.org (blog)

Optimistic UK business confidence indicators predict smooth Brexit

Some economists argue that the latter, no-deal scenario would in fact be best for the UK, because that would allow the UK to unilaterally introduce free trade with all countries of the world and deregulate the UK economy. This, in their view, would bring major benefits to the UK. But such views are in minority and received major criticism; see, for example, the clear arguments of Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen. And business leaders intensively lobby for a broad-based trade deal with the EU – rightly so, in my view.

http://bruegel.org/2017/12/optimistic-uk-business-confidence-indicators-predict-smooth-brexit/


Related Links:
Investing.com - Optimistic UK business confidence indicators predict smooth Brexit

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 19/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Watson.ch

Europa ist wieder sexy/Europe is sexy again

Everything paletti thus? Not quite. There is a loser, and that means Great Britain. It is becoming increasingly clear that Brexit was not a good idea, at least economically. Thomas Sampson and his colleagues from the London School of Economics have made an interim conclusion. It was sobering. "Brexit cost the average employee around a week's wages," he notes in the Financial Times. This is due to missed growth and rising inflation.


Related Links:
Watson.ch - Europa ist wieder sexy/Europe is sexy again

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Watson.ch

Europa ist wieder sexy/Europe is sexy again

Everything paletti thus? Not quite. There is a loser, and that means Great Britain. It is becoming increasingly clear that Brexit was not a good idea, at least economically. Thomas Sampson and his colleagues from the London School of Economics have made an interim conclusion. It was sobering. "Brexit cost the average employee around a week's wages," he notes in the Financial Times. This is due to missed growth and rising inflation.


Related Links:
Watson.ch - Europa ist wieder sexy/Europe is sexy again

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

MSN

The real price of Brexit begins to emerge

Thomas Sampson and colleagues at the London School of Economics have examined the direct effect of sterling’s depreciation since the EU referendum on prices and living standards. With the pound falling about 10 per cent following the June 2016 result, inflation has risen more in Britain than in other advanced economies. It started with petrol prices and spread to food and other goods, pushing overall inflation up from 0.4 per cent at the time of the referendum to 3.1 per cent last month.

Also in:

The National (Scotland)

How much does Brexit cost UK? Around 3350m per week, analysts find

A study by academic Thomas Sampson and some colleagues at the London School of Economics found that 1.7 per cent points of the 2.7 percentage-point rise in inflation over the past year is due to Brexit. Sampson calculates that “the Brexit vote has cost the average worker almost one week’s wages”.

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15780447.Brexit_costs_UK___350m_a_week_say_analysts/

 

Huffington Post

Brexit hit to UK economy could be £350m a week leavers promised to claw back

Meanwhile, a study by the London School of Economics estimates the referendum vote directly increased inflation by 1.7 percentage points of the 2.7 percentage-point rise in the 12 months following it.

“The increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households,” economist Thomas Sampson told the paper.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-hit-to-uk-economy-could-be-ps350m-a-week-leavers-promised-to-claw-back_uk_5a37917be4b040881bec09df?w7m&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage


Related Links:
MSN - The real price of Brexit begins to emerge

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Left Foot Forward

This is how much Brexit has cost already

Business investment grew by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2017, this is down almost five-fold against official forecasts for growth drawn up in 2016. This economic downturn after Brexit has already cost the average UK worker a week’s wages – or about £500 – according to Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics. With the pound falling against other currencies, prices are going up; “the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households”, Sampson told the FT.


Related Links:
Left Foot Forward - This is how much Brexit has cost already

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

The real price of Brexit begins to emerge

FT research shows that the weekly hit to the British economy could be the same £350m that Leave campaigners promised to claw back

Thomas Sampson and colleagues at the London School of Economics have examined the direct effect of sterling’s depreciation since the EU referendum on prices and living standards. With the pound falling about 10 per cent following the June 2016 result, inflation has risen more in Britain than in other advanced economies. It started with petrol prices and spread to food and other goods, pushing overall inflation up from 0.4 per cent at the time of the referendum to 3.1 per cent last month.


Related Links:
Financial Times - The real price of Brexit begins to emerge

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

CICC Online (China)

Sino-U.S. EU Economic Situation The global perception of China has completely changed

In June 2016, a referendum was held in Britain and the result was to withdraw from the EU. This opens the door to an experiment: what happens when an economy wants to reduce its globalization and lift its ties with its neighbors? …

Swati Dhingra of the Center for Economic Performance at London School of Economics said "inflation data provide the most useful information." She said the overall impact of uncertainty is more difficult to measure. Foreign investment data is too volatile, it is difficult to explain what.  Overall investment spending has not fallen as some expected. In the second quarter of 2017, total capital expenditures increased by 2.4% from a year earlier.


Related Links:
CICC Online (China) - Sino-U.S. EU Economic Situation The global perception of China has completely changed

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Servizio Informazione Religiosa (Italy)

European Council: Breinlich (London School of Economics), on Brexit “no surprise”. Agreement acceptable to everyone

Holger Breinlich, one of the UK's leading international economics experts, a lecturer at the London School of Economics and the University of Nottingham, comments on the start of phase two of the EU-UK negotiations for Brexit. "I think that even the toughest politicians towards the EU, like Michael Gove or Boris Johnson, will accept this proposal, certainly not favorable to the United Kingdom, because it is a limited period", explains Breinlich.


Related Links:
Servizio Informazione Religiosa (Italy) - European Council: Breinlich (London School of Economics), on Brexit “no surprise”. Agreement acceptable to everyone

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 15/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNFOL.COM (China)

Sino-U.S. EU Economic Situation The global perception of China has completely changed

John Wraith, head of interest rate policy at UBS UK, said: "The impact of the referendum was, first and foremost, only a sharp fall in the pound." Due to strong consumer spending, the UK economy initially performed better than most people were worried about many. The fall in sterling boosted the profits of tourism and exporters. But by early 2017, the drop in sterling led to higher store prices. Although the global commodity market pushed up the inflation rate, the price of British goods rose more than that of other major economies. In the year to September 2017, prices in the United Kingdom rose 3%, while gains in the euro area, the United States and Japan were 1.5%, 2.2% and 0.7% respectively. Swati Dhingra of the Center for Economic Performance at London School of Economics said "inflation data provide the most useful information."


Related Links:
CNFOL.COM (China) - Sino-U.S. EU Economic Situation The global perception of China has completely changed

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

New Republic

The muddle of the middle

Last month, a study   by the London School of Economics found that the average household will already be paying at least an extra £400 in shopping annually, due to Brexit-induced inflation. Since that study, inflation has only gone up, reaching a near six-year high for November.


Related Links:
New Republic - The muddle of the middle

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage


News Posted: 14/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

American Economic Association

Chart of the week: Breaking down Brexit

Estimates of the full cost of Brexit — ranging from one to ten percent of the UK per capita income — depend on how the UK leaves. In a new paper in the fall issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author Thomas Sampson surveys these possibilities and what they mean for the UK.


Related Links:
American Economic Association - Chart of the week: Breaking down Brexit

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Szaopressa.com (Russia)

May: The estimated amount of "compensation" for Brexit will be approximately 35-39 billion pounds

In a study of the English Center for Economic Performance, published in late autumn, it is reported that only the fact of voting for England's withdrawal from the European Union has resulted in serious losses for the British economy and households.


Related Links:
Szaopressa.com (Russia) - May: The estimated amount of "compensation" for Brexit will be approximately 35-39 billion pounds

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Circular (Russia)

Each British family loses about $ 530 a year because of Brexit: the decision to withdraw from the EU has negatively affected inflation and the standard of living in the UK

Thus, the report for the Center for Economic Performance shows that voting for exit from the EU "was an unforeseen shock for the UK economy," the researchers conclude. "Our results provide convincing evidence that British families are still paying economically for voting to leave the EU," notes one of the co-authors of the analysis, Dr. Thomas Sampson.


Related Links:
Circular (Russia) - Each British family loses about $ 530 a year because of Brexit: the decision to withdraw from the EU has negatively affected inflation and the standard of living in the UK

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 10/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

The New European

Deluded President Trump failing the stress test

There is another B word that keeps popping up whenever the shortcomings of B for Brexit are highlighted. B for Bandwidth. We heard it from Alan Milburn as he explained why he was stepping down from his work heading the Social Mobility Commission. Dealing with Brexit, he wrote in his resignation letter, means the government ‘does not have the necessary bandwidth to ensure the rhetoric of healing social division is matched by the reality’. ... I wonder if Alan was aware of the analysis by the LSE Centre for Economic Performance, which showed that the worst effects of Brexit-fuelled inflation are in working class areas of the north of England, Scotland and Wales. And the day after his resignation the Joseph Rowntree Foundation showed that almost three quarters of a million children and pensioners have fallen into relative poverty over the past four years.


Related Links:
The New European - Deluded President Trump failing the stress test

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 10/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Mail online

Liam Fox faces embarrassment after book he endorsed warns how hard Brexit could be damaging

Pro-Brexit Cabinet Minister Liam Fox faced embarrassment last night after it was revealed that he commissioned and endorsed a new book which warns of the damaging effects of a 'hard' Brexit. The International Trade Secretary has written a foreword for the book about a 19th Century economist which includes the claim that leaving the EU without a deal would cause a 43 per cent fall in UK exports to the EU and a drop in household incomes. Dr Fox has said the UK should not fear a 'no deal' Brexit. But the book (Cloth For Wine? The Relevance of Ricardo's Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century) includes an essay by academic Swati Dhingra, who argues that obtaining no deal with the EU would lead to a rise in trade tariffs, 'causing a 43 per cent reduction in exports to the EU and a three per cent fall in average UK incomes, compared to a no Brexit scenario'.

 


Related Links:
Daily Mail online - Liam Fox faces embarrassment after book he endorsed warns how hard Brexit could be damaging

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 09/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Forbes (Middle East)

How social infrastructure can add value to mixed use developments

In 2008, the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics published research for England showing high performing (academically) schools can have an impact between 3% and 12% on property prices in the surrounding area.


Related Links:
Forbes (Middle East) - How social infrastructure can add value to mixed use developments

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Steve Gibbons webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Olmo Silva webpage


News Posted: 09/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider

Brexit arguments rumble on as breakthrough is still awaited, says Ken Symon

Brexit arguments rumble on as breakthrough is still awaited, says Ken Symon

Research by three academics from the London School of Economics, Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin shows that inflation in the UK has risen faster than the eurozone since the referendum with price rises varying across sectors.


Related Links:
Business Insider - Brexit arguments rumble on as breakthrough is still awaited, says Ken Symon

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 08/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Surrey (6:30:41 AM)

CEP on Radio

… within the next half an hour Mole Valley and Drygate and Banstead among the areas which would be hit hardest by Brexit according to a report by researchers at the London School of Economics say both economies are expected to see a decline partly because of the jobs and businesses which are based there politicians and some business groups say they're sceptical of the report but the LSE says they believe it's an accurate estimate.


Related Links:
BBC Radio Surrey (6:30:41 AM) - CEP on Radio

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 08/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gulf Times online

Premier faces growth Tory civil war over soft Brexit deal

A recent study by LSE said Brexit without a trade deal would cost London over £100bn over five years, while staying in the single market would reduce the losses to some £58bn.


Related Links:
Gulf Times online - Premier faces growth Tory civil war over soft Brexit deal

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Standard (London)

Now Tory civil war deepens over soft Brexit

Snippet:... A recent study by LSE said Brexit without a trade deal would cost London over £100 billion over five years, while staying in the single market would reduce the losses to some £58 billion


Related Links:
Evening Standard (London) - Now Tory civil war deepens over soft Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

VoxDev

Piggyback exporting, intermediation, and the distribution of the gains from trade in agricultural markets

Article by Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro

How much of the world price of export crops trickles down to small farmers, who sell through agribusinesses and traders with market power?


Related Links:
VoxDev - Piggyback exporting, intermediation, and the distribution of the gains from trade in agricultural markets

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 04/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Tvzvezda.ru (Russia)

по Brexit/May and Junker could not agree on Brexit

Article by Thomas Sampson, Dennis Novy, Holger Breinlich and Elsa Leromain

Most economists believe that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy in the long-run. But what about the short-term? How has the referendum affected households in the first year since the vote? Last week, UK in a Changing Europe published the first detailed research on the observed economic consequences of voting to leave the EU. The main finding was that the Brexit vote had reduced living standards by driving up inflation and reducing real wage growth. The costs are evenly shared across the income distribution, but not all regions suffer equally. London is the least affected, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland lose the most.


Related Links:
Tvzvezda.ru (Russia) - по Brexit/May and Junker could not agree on Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 04/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Daily

Open door policy could raise Nairobi’s status as African economic hub

In a paper title Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, the writers reveal that European Union (EU) immigration has tripled in numbers in the last 20 years. In 2015, there were around 3.3 million EU immigrants living in the UK up form 0.9 million in 1995. Around 2.5 million of these immigrants are aged between 16-64 and about two million are productively working.


Related Links:
Business Daily - Open door policy could raise Nairobi’s status as African economic hub

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Growth

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 03/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Solihull News

We're £800 a year worse off thanks to Brexit, report says

...[Thomas] Sampson, who coauthored the Centre for Economic Performance research, said: "Even ...


Related Links:
Solihull News - We're £800 a year worse off thanks to Brexit, report says

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Street

Britain’s opposition leader says Labour Party a ‘threat’ to investment banks

The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance and Centre for Cities estimates the British capital could lose as much as £18 billion in annual revenue and as many as 30,000 jobs, a figure that EY suggests could rise to 83,000 in a worst-case "Hard Brexit" scenario


Related Links:
The Street - Britain’s opposition leader says Labour Party a ‘threat’ to investment banks

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 01/12/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit has lost UK economy £300m per week since EU referendum result, analysis finds

A report by the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economics Performance earlier this month estimated that the Brexit-related spike in inflation in the UK had already cost the average UK household around £400 a year.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit has lost UK economy £300m per week since EU referendum result, analysis finds

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 29/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Get Surrey

Reigate & Mole Valley 'will be hit harder by Brexit than almost anywhere in the UK, study suggests

The report defines a hard Brexit as being on World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs with no customs union, and a soft Brexit with the UK staying in a form of customs union and tariffs remaining at zero with a reduced economic impact. LSE researcher Nikhil Datta, part of the team that produced the paper, said: "In both Reigate and Banstead and the Mole Valley the key industries for output are services and highly skilled industry, advertising, media, marketing, technical engineering firms, builders, architecture and consultancy.


Related Links:
Get Surrey - Reigate & Mole Valley 'will be hit harder by Brexit than almost anywhere in the UK, study suggests

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 29/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP mentioned in the Budget Resolutions Debate

CEPresearch was used in the post budget debate by MPs.

  • Alison Thewliss MP (SNP), Shadow SNP spokesman for Cities and Treasury referred to the recent CEP report The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards estimate "that the average household has lost £7.74 per week because of the higher prices in shopping baskets".
  • Ian Blackford MP (SNP) mentioned the recent CEP report on the impact of Brexit on local areas that saw Scotland losing up to £30 billion over five years.

Related Links:
CEP mentioned in the Budget Resolutions Debate - CEPresearch was used in the post budget debate by MPs.

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

CAPX

Brexit is already costing Britain

Article by Thomas Sampson et al

Most economists believe that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy in the long-run. But what about the short-term? How has the referendum affected households in the first year since the vote?

Last week, UK in a Changing Europe published the first detailed research on the observed economic consequences of voting to leave the EU.


Related Links:
CAPX - Brexit is already costing Britain

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

NIESR Blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

Article by Henry Overman

Much has been written about the impact that Brexit might have on the national economy. We know far less about how that impact might vary across the UK. In a recent paper published in the National Institute Economic Review , myself and colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) provide some preliminary answers. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.


Related Links:
NIESR Blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

De Welt

Britische Regionen fordern Brexit-Extrawürste

However, the regions that are now calling for special rules do not belong to those parts of the country that Brexit is likely to hit particularly hard economically. According to calculations by economists at the London School of Economics, London and the southeast, and some districts in the East Midlands, are likely to suffer from the EU exit. There, the forecasts point to particularly strong losses in economic growth. Even after the financial crisis, it became clear that London and the South were hit hardest by the consequences, explains Swati Dhingra, one of the authors of the study. However, thanks to their economic power, these regions would have recovered much more quickly. As an all-clear she does not want to know that understood. Overall, the consequences of Brexit are negative for the whole country.


Related Links:
De Welt - Britische Regionen fordern Brexit-Extrawürste

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 27/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Pakistan Today

Change course or risk Brexit chaos, Ireland warns Theresa May

The latest work by economists at the London School of Economics estimates that, if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal, the impact will be far more severe than the projections in the budget suggested. Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit could reduce UK living standards by up to 9 per cent in the most pessimistic case.


Related Links:
Pakistan Today - Change course or risk Brexit chaos, Ireland warns Theresa May

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Birmingham Evening Mail

We’re £800 a year worse off thanks to Brexit, report says

Dr Thomas Sampson, who co-authored the Centre for Economic Performance research, said: "Even before Brexit occurs, the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households.


Related Links:
Birmingham Evening Mail - We’re £800 a year worse off thanks to Brexit, report says

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 25/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Irish warn Theresa May: change course or risk Brexit chaos

Government sources said ministers would this week release sections of assessments into the potential economic impact of Brexit carried out across Whitehall, which until recently they had tried to keep secret. Many MPs believe the published sections will be heavily redacted and will not make clear the extent of potential economic damage. Last night Nicky Morgan, who chairs the Treasury select committee, said it was essential that as many projections as possible were made public. The latest work by economists at the London School of Economics estimates that, if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal, the impact will be far more severe than the projections in the budget suggested. Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit could reduce UK living standards by up to 9% in the most pessimistic case.


Related Links:
Guardian - Irish warn Theresa May: change course or risk Brexit chaos

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 25/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

ZDF.de (Germany)

Stellenabbau: Viele Sorgen, wenig Optimismus/Job cuts: many worries, little optimism


Related Links:
ZDF.de (Germany) - Stellenabbau: Viele Sorgen, wenig Optimismus/Job cuts: many worries, little optimism

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

HispanTV.com

Brexit: United Kingdom undergoes its lowest growth in 5 years

Growth largely rested on household spending. The companies, influenced by the uncertainty created by the Brexit - exit of the United Kingdom of the European Union (EU) -, invested cautiously while clearing unknowns. With inflation skyrocketing, spending has become a painful reality, explains Dennis Novy, a researcher at the Center for Economic Performance in London.


Related Links:
HispanTV.com - Brexit: United Kingdom undergoes its lowest growth in 5 years

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News (Russia)

Revenues of the British fell after Brexit and shrink still

According to the Center for Economic Performance Research Center (CEP), one of the main consequences of the vote on leaving the European Union was a marked decrease in the quality of life of British subjects. After the referendum, the annual income was reduced by 448 pounds sterling - this is almost a week's salary of an ordinary employee


Related Links:
Sputnik News (Russia) - Revenues of the British fell after Brexit and shrink still

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

De Welt (Germany)

Britische Regionen fordern Brexit-Extrawürste

However, the regions that are now calling for special rules do not belong to those parts of the country that Brexit is likely to hit particularly hard economically. According to calculations by economists at the London School of Economics, London and the southeast, and some districts in the East Midlands, are likely to suffer from the EU exit. There, the forecasts point to particularly strong losses in economic growth. Even after the financial crisis, it became clear that London and the South were hit hardest by the consequences, explains Swati Dhingra, one of the authors of the study. However, thanks to their economic power, these regions would have recovered much more quickly. As an all-clear she does not want to know that understood. Overall, the consequences of Brexit are negative for the whole country.


Related Links:
De Welt (Germany) - Britische Regionen fordern Brexit-Extrawürste

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

ZDF.de (Germany)

Stellenabbau: Viele Sorgen, wenig Optimismus/Job cuts: many worries, little optimism

How many jobs are being lost in the UK due to the relocation of businesses is still unclear. Estimates range from 30,000 to 200,000. The Bank of England's most recent forecast, according to the BBC, is the withdrawal of 75,000 jobs should the Brexit negotiations run out without a deal for the financial sector. "There is still time until the end of this year, by which time contingency plans will be further refined, but until the beginning of next year, if there is no clarity on the outcome of the negotiations, banks will begin to implement their plans and create more jobs other EU countries are relocating, "says Dr. Thomas Sampson.


Related Links:
ZDF.de (Germany) - Stellenabbau: Viele Sorgen, wenig Optimismus/Job cuts: many worries, little optimism

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News (Russia)

Revenues of the British fell after Brexit and shrink still

According to the Center for Economic Performance Research Center (CEP), one of the main consequences of the vote on leaving the European Union was a marked decrease in the quality of life of British subjects. After the referendum, the annual income was reduced by 448 pounds sterling - this is almost a week's salary of an ordinary employee.

.


Related Links:
Sputnik News (Russia) - Revenues of the British fell after Brexit and shrink still

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

NewsR.in (India)

UK economy: moderate growth but inflation remains high

Right now, the British people are already paying money. Every time they go shopping, because prices have gone up, they actually can buy less with their money said Dennis Novy, research fellow at the Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science. And that is the cost.


Related Links:
NewsR.in (India) - UK economy: moderate growth but inflation remains high

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gloucester Live

Move over London – Gloucester ranked in the UK’s top 10 most productive and entrepreneurial business areas

Post Budget analysis has focused on the UK's productivity woes - but a UK-wide report singles out Gloucester as a hotbed of entrepreneurial business growth and talent way ahead of the Capital. … The researchers reference a report - The Great Divergence(s), by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo. The upshot of which is this – businesses which don’t pay their staff as much as other firms in the same sector are less productive. Wages have remained generally stagnant since the economic crash and productivity a growing issue. Could there be a link one wonders.


Related Links:
Gloucester Live - Move over London – Gloucester ranked in the UK’s top 10 most productive and entrepreneurial business areas

The growing inequality between firms

The Great Divergence(s)

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Premium Official News

New study reveals hit to living standards from Brexit

... according to new analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London  ...


Related Links:
Premium Official News - New study reveals hit to living standards from Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe Newsletter

Brexit squeeze

In the first detailed statistical analysis of how the referendum outcome has affected UK inflation, wages and living standards Thomas Sampson and his team show UK households are paying a high economic price for the vote to leave the European Union. Read their report here. It was featured in The TimesIndependent, Sky News, and Evening Standard.

Related article

‘New evidence shows UK households paying high economic price for vote to leave EU’, The UK in a Changing Europe article, 20 November 2017

http://ukandeu.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/r/453FB334F61029762540EF23F30FEDED/D213F45C003418194BD7C9066BE4161D


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe Newsletter - Brexit squeeze

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 24/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Zarojel.hu (Hungary)

British workers have already paid weekly for Brexit

In the referendum on British EU membership last June, a small, 51.9 percent majority of the participants voted out. The study, published on Monday by the prestigious London Economics University at London School of Economics, Center for Economic Performance (CEP), used different model calculations during its investigation. They pointed out how unexpected market and real economic shocks caused last year's referendum. The sudden weakening of the pound resulted in a cumulative inflation acceleration of 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum by June 2017. This 17 percent increase compared to the rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period.


Related Links:
Zarojel.hu (Hungary) - British workers have already paid weekly for Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Mail

DINNER PARTY INTEL: Tencent takes on the world

In the referendum on British EU membership last June, a small, 51.9 percent majority of the participants voted out. The study, published on Monday by the prestigious London Economics University at London School of Economics, Center for Economic Performance (CEP), used different model calculations during its investigation. They pointed out how unexpected market and real economic shocks caused last year's referendum. The sudden weakening of the pound resulted in a cumulative inflation acceleration of 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum by June 2017. This 17 percent increase compared to the rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period.


Related Links:
Financial Mail - DINNER PARTY INTEL: Tencent takes on the world

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

EuroNews (Hungary)

Price of brexit: shrinking growth, rising inflation

The British already pay the price of brexit - explains Dennis Novy, an economics researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science. - Every single shopping gets less and less money for their money. This is the price of the exit. It is distributed equally, but it affects everyone. Adding a substantial amount. The Brits are already paying for brexit, even though it has not yet occurred.


Related Links:
EuroNews (Hungary) - Price of brexit: shrinking growth, rising inflation

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Zarojel.hu (Hungary)

British workers have already paid weekly for Brexit

In the referendum on British EU membership last June, a small, 51.9 percent majority of the participants voted out. The study, published on Monday by the prestigious London Economics University at London School of Economics, Center for Economic Performance (CEP), used different model calculations during its investigation. They pointed out how unexpected market and real economic shocks caused last year's referendum. The sudden weakening of the pound resulted in a cumulative inflation acceleration of 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum by June 2017. This 17 percent increase compared to the rate that would have been expected without this shock in the same period.


Related Links:
Zarojel.hu (Hungary) - British workers have already paid weekly for Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Mail

DINNER PARTY INTEL: Tencent takes on the world

3. Britons begin to feel the Brexit pinch - EU and Union flags fly above Parliament Square in central London, Britain. UK households are more than £400/year worse off as a result of Brexit-induced inflation. A report by the Centre for Economic Performance says that even before Brexit occurs, the increase in inflation caused by the 2016 vote to leave the EU has already hurt households. The largest inflationary effects have been on products that are typically imported. An alternative calculation of the loss suggests higher inflation has reduced the real wage of the average worker by about £448, the equivalent of one week’s pay.


Related Links:
Financial Mail - DINNER PARTY INTEL: Tencent takes on the world

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

CCTV Mandarin News

News

Dennis Novy interviewed by Chinese television on CEP Brexit analysis research into how much Brexit is already costing UK households.


Related Links:
CCTV Mandarin News - News

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Iran Daily

Statistics report shows Brexit’s influence on inflation in UK

A statistical analysis on the consequences of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom was released on Monday, showing how the referendum outcome has affected inflation and living standards of people across the country. The report, “The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards,” was issued by the Center for Economic Performance under London School of Economics and Political Science, presstv.ir reported.


Related Links:
Iran Daily - Statistics report shows Brexit’s influence on inflation in UK

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

EuroNews

UK economy: moderate growth but inflation remains high

UK economy: Britain is on course for its longest fall in living standards since records began, with wages not returning to their pre-financial crisis levels until at least 2025. … “Right now, the British people are already paying money. Every time they go shopping, because prices have gone up, they actually can buy less with their money.” said Dennis Novy, research fellow at the Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science. “And that is the cost. It’s very evenly distributed, it affects pretty much every single person in the entire country.” “But it actually adds up to a lot of money, so the British people are already paying for Brexit, even though Brexit hasn’t even happened yet.”

Also in:

Monday 27 November

Thai News Service

United Kingdom: UK economy – moderate growth but inflation remains high

[No link available]

Sunday 26 November

Mubasher

UK sees slower growth, higher inflation

[No link available]


Related Links:
EuroNews - UK economy: moderate growth but inflation remains high

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 23/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Rosbalt.ru (Russia)

British authorities have reserved another 3 billion pounds for planning Brexit

Recently, the Center for Economic Performance (CEP), a local research center, recently released a survey according to which every British family, on average, loses 400 pounds sterling per year due to Brexit.


Related Links:
Rosbalt.ru (Russia) - British authorities have reserved another 3 billion pounds for planning Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Rosbalt.ru (Russia)

British authorities have reserved another 3 billion pounds for planning Brexit

Recently, the Center for Economic Performance (CEP), a local research center, recently released a survey according to which every British family, on average, loses 400 pounds sterling per year due to Brexit.


Related Links:
Rosbalt.ru (Russia) - British authorities have reserved another 3 billion pounds for planning Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

GQ

Budget 2017: Brexit is the least of Philip Hammond’s worries

“One of the guys who pays my wages has decided he’s pulling investment from the UK,” my private fund manager mate tells me on Sunday as we stand on the touchline, watching our kids play rugby. “It’s very worrying. There’s a lot of anxiety about a negative event coming at us soon. And all the uncertainty about Brexit is making Britain a very unlikely option for investment.” It’s far from anecdotal. The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance reports that leaving the EU may see a drop in direct foreign investment into Britain of 22 per cent. That will have an immediate knock-on effect, not only to Phil’s spreadsheet, but to the take-home pay of real folk from Sunderland to Surrey. Some Brexit bonus.


Related Links:
GQ - Budget 2017: Brexit is the least of Philip Hammond’s worries

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald (Scotland)

Beware: Spreadsheet Phil will be flying blind in this Budget

Meanwhile, on the home front consumers have been fighting raging price increases thanks to the collapse in the value of the pound. The average household has lost £404 last year according to the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. That’s equivalent to a week’s pay, and more than anyone is likely to gain from today’s Budget tweaks.


Related Links:
The Herald (Scotland) - Beware: Spreadsheet Phil will be flying blind in this Budget

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

UK households are already paying an average of £404pa for Brexit

On 23 June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU. As soon as the result became clear, sterling depreciated sharply and, since the vote, UK inflation has dramatically increased. How much of the rise in inflation is due to the referendum? Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, and Thomas Sampson, (LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance) find that the referendum result pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points. This amounts to an annual (and potentially permanent) cost of £404 for the average British household. UK households are thus already paying a high economic price for the vote to leave the European Union.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - UK households are already paying an average of £404pa for Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

New study reveals hit to living standards from Brexit

Brexit is already costing the average UK household £7.74 per week or £404 per year, according to new analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). The study is the first detailed statistical analysis of how the referendum outcome has affected UK inflation, real wages and living standards.


Related Links:
LSE News - New study reveals hit to living standards from Brexit

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 21/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wales online

Wales and Northern Ireland see 'the worst inflation spikes in the UK'

Wales and Northern Ireland have suffered the worst spikes in inflation in the UK as a result of last year’s vote for Brexit, according to new research from the London School of Economics. The analysis by its Centre for Economic Performance found London was the least affected region. Wales saw the worst inflation spike on the mainland, with only Northern Ireland being worse affected.


Related Links:
Wales online - Wales and Northern Ireland see 'the worst inflation spikes in the UK'

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Channel 103

Brexit vote 'has made households £400-a-year worse off', say researchers

A report from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) says the average household is paying £404-a-year extra on food and household items due to rising prices. After the EU referendum vote, the falling value of the pound in comparison with most other currencies has seen the cost of many imports increased. The CEP, which is based at the London School of Economics (LSE), said the impact of the price increases is equivalent to a £448 cut in annual pay for the average worker – the equivalent of one week’s pay. Dr Thomas Sampson, who co-wrote the research, said: “Even before Brexit occurs, the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households.


Related Links:
Channel 103 - Brexit vote 'has made households £400-a-year worse off', say researchers

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bailiwick Express

Households are £852 a year worse off due to Brexit, study finds

Dr Thomas Sampson, who co-authored the Centre for Economic Performance research, said: “Even before Brexit occurs, the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households. “Our results provide compelling evidence that, so far, UK households are paying an economic price for voting to leave the EU.”


Related Links:
Bailiwick Express - Households are £852 a year worse off due to Brexit, study finds

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Fars News Agency (Tehran)

Research: Brexit costs UK househilds over $500 per year

According to research conducted by the UK-based Centre for Economic Performance "By June 2017, the Brexit vote was costing the average household £7.74 per week through higher prices. That is equivalent to £404 per year", Sputnik reported. According to the research, Brexit negatively affected such indicators as the inflation rate, sterling's exchange rate, as well asthe incomes of UK citizens and their living standards.


Related Links:
Fars News Agency (Tehran) - Research: Brexit costs UK househilds over $500 per year

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

The consequences of the Brexit vote for UK inflation and living standards: First evidence

Article by Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson. On 23 June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU. As soon as the result became clear, sterling depreciated sharply and, since the vote, UK inflation has dramatically increased. This column asks how much of the rise in inflation is due to the referendum. It finds that the referendum result pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points, which amounts to an annual (and potentially permanent) cost of £404 for the average British household.


Related Links:
Vox - The consequences of the Brexit vote for UK inflation and living standards: First evidence

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe blog

New evidence shows UK households paying high economic price for vote to leave EU

The first detailed statistical analysis of how the referendum outcome has affected UK inflation, wages and living standards shows UK households are paying a high economic price for the vote to leave the European Union. The report – ‘The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards’, finds Brexit is costing the average household £7.74 per week through higher prices – which is equivalent to £404 a year. Higher inflation has also reduced the growth of real wages. The impact of price increases due to the referendum is equivalent to a £448 cut in annual pay for the average worker. In other words, the Brexit vote has cost the average worker almost one week’s wages.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe blog - New evidence shows UK households paying high economic price for vote to leave EU

The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Elsa Leromain webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

One to watch: four economies in focus

While movements in global commodity markets helped raise inflation, price rises in the UK have outstripped those in other leading economies. By September 2017, prices were up 3 per cent over the past year compared with 1.5 per cent in the eurozone, 2.2 per cent in the US and 0.7 per cent in Japan. 'The inflation figures are the most informative'  , says Swati Dhingra, at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. She says the impact of broad uncertainty has been harder to measure. 'There is too much lumpiness' in foreign investment figures to learn anything definite. 


Related Links:
Financial Times - One to watch: four economies in focus

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

What Works Growth blog

The good news about exports

Article by Henry Overman: With Brexit looming, we’ve been running a series of workshops with local areas to think about different policy responses and consider what the evidence says on effectiveness. One thing that local areas wanted to know was what the evaluation evidence said on export support and inward investment promotion. In response, we’ve surveyed the available evaluations and launched three new toolkits that consider what we can learn. Two of the toolkits look at supporting exports through either export promotion agencies (EPA) or export credit agencies (ECA). The third, looks at inward investment promotion.


Related Links:
What Works Growth blog - The good news about exports

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 13/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Prospect Magazine

The reality of No Deal, part three: chaos at Calais

Article by Thomas Sampson: Why will Brexit cause problems at the border? Let’s start with the basics. The central issue is that currently, goods move freely between the UK and other EU countries. That’s part of being a member state: you get “frictionless trade” with other countries in the bloc. But Brexit will be the end of this. In future, customs checks will be required on UK-EU trade, imposing a new administrative burden on British importers and exporters.


Related Links:
Prospect Magazine - The reality of No Deal, part three: chaos at Calais

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 13/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

The great Brexit test begins to unfold

“The inflation figures are the most informative,” says Swati Dhingra, at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. She says the impact of broad uncertainty has been harder to measure. “There is too much lumpiness” in foreign investment figures to learn anything definite.


Related Links:
Financial Times - The great Brexit test begins to unfold

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LBC Radio

5:45:12 pm

Snippet: ...e Thank you very much Steve France's reporting for us there in Cardiff and serve loaded of the have been in touch about food prices someone texted me to say food has increased by 5% since June 20 16th seed chart to on a London School of Economics Europe blog post so ... Related article: ‘UK inflation has been rising fast since the Brexit vote’, Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin.  Post on LSE Business Review blog, November 4, 2017


Related Links:
LBC Radio - 5:45:12 pm

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Josh De lyon webpage


News Posted: 10/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

EuroNews

Trump said America’s economy was better than Japan’s and he was probably right

Is it possible, as Trump’s statement suggests, to compare two countries’ economies and which indicators would we use to do so? GDP per capita is considered a baseline when comparing two economies. Using this measure, Trump’s comments are founded, with the US ahead of Japan in rankings from both the International Monetary Fund (US:11th place, Japan:28th place) and the World Bank (US:9th place, Japan:22nd place). This is, however, a very basic comparison, according to Gianmarco Ottaviano, professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, who told Euronews that a deeper analysis of the two economies would include several indicators including GDP growth, productivity and net export performance, among others.


Related Links:
EuroNews - Trump said America’s economy was better than Japan’s and he was probably right

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 09/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a changing Europe blog

Post-Brexit UK trade policy: still just a wish list

Article by Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

It’s no secret that the UK is deeply integrated into the European Union. About half of its trade and investment is with the EU and, as a member of the single market, the UK implements similar standards for products and services as the EU. Furthermore, as a member of the customs union, the UK operates a common external tariff, and goods and services can move seamlessly with no customs or compliance checks. How the UK exits the EU will therefore have profound impacts on trade, investment and economic growth in the UK.


Related Links:
The UK in a changing Europe blog - Post-Brexit UK trade policy: still just a wish list

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 09/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Parliament Today

Product Diversification in Indian Manufacturing – discussion paper from the Centre for Economic Performance

The Centre for Economic Performance has published a discussion paper entitled 'Product Diversification in Indian Manufacturing.'The abstract states: The presence of global value chains challenges the neoclassical idea of the firm since it implies firms are not monolithic but are rather interdependent on the larger economic environment. Examining establishments, the smallest units of production within firms, sheds light on the microeconomic incentives determining the location of production and whether a firm produces a good or sources it.


Related Links:
Parliament Today - Product Diversification in Indian Manufacturing – discussion paper from the Centre for Economic Performance

Product Diversification in Indian Manufacturing

CEP Trade

John Morrow webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 08/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Scottish Energy News

CBI survey shows 98% of British energy firms want post-Brexit investment framework

Meanwhile, the risks of Scotland crashing out of the EU without the UK government securing a deal have been revealed in a damning report by the London School of Economics. Figures show that every single part of Scotland, and of the UK as a whole, will be adversely affected even in the event of a soft Brexit with single market membership maintained. The impact of dropping off a hard Brexit cliff edge would be significantly worse.


Related Links:
Scottish Energy News - CBI survey shows 98% of British energy firms want post-Brexit investment framework

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 08/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Record and Sunday Mail

Brexit could cost South Lanarkshire £1.3 billion

South Lanarkshire could lose out to the tune of £1.3 billion after Brexit according to statistics from the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Daily Record and Sunday Mail - Brexit could cost South Lanarkshire £1.3 billion

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Parliament

Live House of Commons

Ronnie Cowan, SNP, Inverclyde:  A report from the centre for cities and the Centre for economic performance and the London School of Economics said that all cities would schedule increasing costs, Edinburgh was ranked among the ten most affected cities, connecting HS2 to Scotland must be a priority.


Related Links:
BBC Parliament - Live House of Commons

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE European Politics and Policy blog

The Brexit vote has caused a significant rise in UK prices, especially food

Article by Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

Since Britain’s EU referendum, UK inflation has risen faster than that of the Eurozone. Price rises have varied across sectors, but as Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra, and Stephen Machin show, the rise in the growth rate of food prices has been particularly pronounced. As a result, real wage growth in the UK has again turned negative. 

Related publications

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin. Article in CentrePiece Volume 22, Issue 3, Autumn 2017 [http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/CentrePiece_22_3.pdf]


Related Links:
LSE European Politics and Policy blog - The Brexit vote has caused a significant rise in UK prices, especially food

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 06/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

UK inflation has been rising fast since the Brexit vote

Food prices are rising faster, and real wage growth has again turned negative, write Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin.... Overall, this research points to a significant rise in prices occurring after the EU referendum. Future work that builds on these initial findings will quantify the role of the devaluation of sterling by focusing closely on price changes for imported goods and services.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - UK inflation has been rising fast since the Brexit vote

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Josh De lyon webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 04/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post

Wetherspoon's boss 'certain' Brexit can reduce food costs - but vague on his own prices

LSE economist Thomas Sampson viewed Martin’s press release and told HuffPost it had a “partial truth”, as axing the tariffs would make food cheaper but only cheaper than if Britain left the EU and kept them.

Sampson said: “Are food prices lower following Brexit than if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU? That’s where the claim has less to back it up.”


Related Links:
Huffington Post - Wetherspoon's boss 'certain' Brexit can reduce food costs - but vague on his own prices

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 04/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

UK in a Changing EU

Brexit and Trade: Which trade barriers matter for the UK?

With Swati Dhingra, Martin Donnelly and Sam Lowe - Chaired by Soumaya Keynes

Trading places:  #BrexitTrade conference video:

What types of trade barriers are most important for UK firms with an eye to shedding light on priorities for future trade negotiations.

Speakers: Swati Dhingra, The UK in a Changing Europe; Martin Donnelly, formerly Department for International Trade

Chair: Soumaya Keynes, The Economist


Related Links:
UK in a Changing EU - Brexit and Trade: Which trade barriers matter for the UK?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 02/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Welt

Schon jetzt kostet der Brexit jeden Briten 682 Euro/Already, the Brexit costs every Briton 682 euros

Another study by the institute examining the regional implications of Brexit concludes that the south around London is likely to be hit particularly hard, as well as the region around Manchester and the south of Scotland. These are in each case regions that predominantly voted to remain in the EU. "But we see negative effects everywhere," said economist Swati Dhingra, one of the authors of the study.


Related Links:
Welt - Schon jetzt kostet der Brexit jeden Briten 682 Euro/Already, the Brexit costs every Briton 682 euros

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Avvenire (Italy)

Breinlich: La recessione à dietro l’angolo/Breinlich: The recession is around the corner

The LSE economist: the cost of leaving the Union will fluctuate between £200 billion a year in the event of a complete breakdown and 20 billion for the softest solution to the Norwegian. There is no doubt about Professor Holger Breinlich, one of the most important international economics experts in the United Kingdom, teaching at the London School of Economics and at the University of Nottingham. "There will be a long transition period of three to four years after March 2019, when Britain will definitively leave the European Union. At that point, the UK's relations with the EU will be governed by a treaty similar to what Europe currently has with Canada, namely a free trade agreement with the elimination of tariffs and other types of barriers. Although it is difficult to read in the future, this with a certain margin of approximation is what I think will happen, "explains the expert. The price to pay, that is, will be greater poverty.


Related Links:
Avvenire (Italy) - Breinlich: La recessione à dietro l’angolo/Breinlich: The recession is around the corner

CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 02/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP citations

‘The State of Small Business: Putting UK Entrepreneurs on the Map’, NESTA & SAGE Report, November 2017

Berlingieri, G., Blanchenay, P. and Criscuolo, C. The Great Divergence(s): CEP Discussion Paper No 1488. (Centre for Economic Performance, 2017) cited in ‘The State of Small Business: Putting UK Entrepreneurs on the Map’, NESTA & SAGE Report, November 2017


Related Links:
CEP citations - ‘The State of Small Business: Putting UK Entrepreneurs on the Map’, NESTA & SAGE Report, November 2017

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage


News Posted: 01/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a changing Europe blog

Brexit and the future of globalisation

Article by Thomas Sampson

Since World War II the global economy has become increasingly integrated. Brexit runs counter to this trend and has ignited a debate about the future of the EU and the global economy. In a recent paper I discuss why the UK voted to leave and what this tells us about the future of globalisation. Brexit may prove to be a minor diversion on the path to greater integration, a sign that globalisation has reached its limits, or the start of a new era of protectionism. Which of these eventualities is realised will depend, in part, upon whether leave voters supported Brexit to reclaim sovereignty from the EU or as a protest against their economic and social struggles. We do not yet know the relative importance of these two motivations.


Related Links:
The UK in a changing Europe blog - Brexit and the future of globalisation

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

The religious roots of the secular West: The Protestant Reformation and the allocation of resources in Europe

Article by Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar and Noam Yuchtman. Five hundred years ago today, Martin Luther posted 95 theses on the Wittenberg Castle church door critiquing Catholic Church corruption, setting off the Protestant Reformation. This column argues that the Reformation not only transformed Western Europe's religious landscape, but also led to an immediate and large secularisation of Europe’s political economy.


Related Links:
Vox - The religious roots of the secular West: The Protestant Reformation and the allocation of resources in Europe

Reallocation and Secularization: The Economic Consequences of the Protestant Reformation

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Jeremiah Dittmar webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Helensburgh Advertiser

New figures reveal likely Brexit impact on Argyll and Bute

Research by the London School of Economics forecasts that even in the event of a Brexit transition deal being struck, the Argyll and Bute economy will shrink by 2 per cent.


Related Links:
Helensburgh Advertiser - New figures reveal likely Brexit impact on Argyll and Bute

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Press and Journal (Aberdeen)

Argyll could be £350 million out of pocket as a result of Brexit

Scotland’s Brexit Secretary Mike Russell told the convention that a report out last week revealed a soft exit from the EU would leave the area £150million worse off, while a “hard, no deal Brexit,” would take the figure up to £350million. The report was published by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Press and Journal (Aberdeen) - Argyll could be £350 million out of pocket as a result of Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Jyllands Posten (Denmark)

Eksperter: Globaliseringen har aldrig været en folkefest/Experts: Globalization has never been a people's party

Dennis Novy interviewed on globalisation and Brexit.


Related Links:
Jyllands Posten (Denmark) - Eksperter: Globaliseringen har aldrig været en folkefest/Experts: Globalization has never been a people's party

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC TV Midlands

Sunday Politics

Mention of figures from the London School of Economics on the impact of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit on Birmingham’s economy.


Related Links:
BBC TV Midlands - Sunday Politics

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Straits Times

Messy divorce looms as Brexit talks go nowhere

The overall impression in other European capitals is that the British want to have their cake and eat it, by leaving the EU and yet retaining all its advantages, a demand which no EU government is prepared to concede. Squabbles inside Mrs May's ruling Conservative Party add to the confusion. A group of ardent anti-European former senior Cabinet ministers has published an open letter to the Prime Minister, urging her to simply crash out of the EU with no deal; Britons should "concentrate our resources on resolving administrative issues" rather than trade negotiations, they say. But recent analysis compiled by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics indicates that the option of leaving the EU without a negotiated trade deal could cost the British economy £430 billion (S$773 billion) over the first five years, or around 5 per cent of the country's total output.


Related Links:
The Straits Times - Messy divorce looms as Brexit talks go nowhere

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC TV Scotland

Scottish Questions

Snippet: Mention of LSE study on cost of Brexit for Scotland


Related Links:
BBC TV Scotland - Scottish Questions

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 26/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yorkshire Post

Leeds set to lose out on £6.4bn in a ‘Hard’ Brexit

However, the Department for Exiting the EU recently rejected requests to publish the analysis, arguing that there was a risk of a knock-on effect on national and regional economies . But the Lib Dems have workd with experts at the London School of Economics to produce their own estimates of the effects of a “hard” and “soft” Brexit.The party claims the cities of London and Birmingham are set to be the worst-hit in the event of a “no deal” exit, with parts of the capital seeing a 9.5 percent drop in output. However, it also suggests that Leeds, which has one of the biggest financial services sectors outside of the South East, could see a drop in output of up to six percent – equivalent to £6.4bn.


Related Links:
Yorkshire Post - Leeds set to lose out on £6.4bn in a ‘Hard’ Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

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Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News online

Brexit impact study ‘will not be published’ UK government assessments of the potential economic impact of Brexit on Scotland will not be made public, the Brexit secretary has confirmed.

But the analysis will be shared with the Scottish government, David Davis told a committee of MPs. Mr Davis told the Brexit select committee that publishing the analysis could undermine the national interest. However, Nicola Sturgeon said people had a right to know how leaving the EU would affect all areas of the UK. And she said any refusal to release the information to the public would be "unconscionable". Research published by the London School of Economics earlier this week estimated the loss of economic output in Scotland could be £30bn.


Related Links:
BBC News online - Brexit impact study ‘will not be published’ UK government assessments of the potential economic impact of Brexit on Scotland will not be made public, the Brexit secretary has confirmed.

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Scotsman

Leader comment: Brexit figures must not be kept secret

It is still unclear whether we are heading for a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit but, amid calls for a second referendum, it is important that voters are told about the UK Government’s own estimates of the potential damage. Westminster’s decision to share its so-far confidential Brexit impact report with the Scottish Government is welcome, but it must also eventually come clean with the public. The reason for keeping the report’s conclusions secret – that it would result in “precipitating preemptive and reactionary assumptions” that would damage the economy – hardly inspires confidence. Neither does an estimate by the respected London School of Economics, which found Scotland’s output could fall by £30 billion over five years if there is no trade deal with the EU.


Related Links:
The Scotsman - Leader comment: Brexit figures must not be kept secret

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Original 106 FM

Snippet: News story about study on the impact of Brexit on Aberdeen

Snippet: News story about study on the impact of Brexit on Aberdeen 


Related Links:
Original 106 FM - Snippet: News story about study on the impact of Brexit on Aberdeen

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio (Shetland)

(10/24/2017 6:20:18 AM)

Snippet: Discussion of study on cost of Brexit for Scotland


Related Links:
BBC Radio (Shetland) - (10/24/2017 6:20:18 AM)

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Stephen Machin webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times (Scotland)

Cities stand to lose billions from Brexit

Scotland’s biggest cities stand to lose billions of pounds if the UK government fails to secure a Brexit deal, the Liberal Democrats have claimed (Hamish Macdonell writes). The party commissioned analysis from the London School of Economics which, it claims, shows that Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen would all suffer massive damage to their economic output under a “hard Brexit”.


Related Links:
The Times (Scotland) - Cities stand to lose billions from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Universities deplore ‘McCarthyism’ as MP demands list of tutors lecturing on Brexit

Tory whip writes to every vice-chancellor to ask for syllabus and any online material

Academics are accusing a Tory MP and government whip of “McCarthyite” behaviour, after he wrote to all universities asking them to declare what they are teaching their students about Brexit and to provide a list of teachers’ names. … Prof Kevin Featherstone, head of the European Institute at the LSE, is also outraged: “The letter reflects a past of a McCarthyite nature. It smacks of asking: are you or have you ever been in favour of remain? There is clearly an implied threat that universities will somehow be challenged for their bias.” Featherstone says LSE academics had already feared Brexit censorship after the Electoral Commission made inquiries during last year’s referendum campaign about academics’ debates and research, following a complaint by Bernard Jenkin, another Tory MP. Jenkin filed a complaint when the LSE hosted an event at which the secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said there was “no upside for the UK in Brexit”. Jenkin, a board member of the Vote Leave campaign, also accused the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance of producing partisan research designed to convince the public to stay in the EU. The commission, whose job is to ensure fair campaigning, investigated and took no action against the university.


Related Links:
Guardian - Universities deplore ‘McCarthyism’ as MP demands list of tutors lecturing on Brexit

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Growth

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economic Policy Volume 32, Issue 92, October 2017

Articles Editors’ Choice

‘This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit in the medium to long run, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers. We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trade in intermediates. We simulate a range of counterfactuals reflecting alternative options for European Union (EU)–United Kingdom (UK) relations following Brexit. Welfare losses for the average UK household are 1.3% if the UK remains in the EU’s Single Market like Norway (a ‘soft Brexit’). Losses rise to 2.7% if the UK trades with the EU under World Trade Organization rules (a ‘hard Brexit’). A reduced-form approach that captures the dynamic effects of Brexit on productivity more than triples these losses and implies a decline in average income per capita of between 6.3% and 9.4%, partly via falls in foreign investment. The negative effects of Brexit are widely shared across the entire income distribution and are unlikely to be offset from new trade deals.’

[Full Text]


Related Links:
Economic Policy Volume 32, Issue 92, October 2017 - Articles Editors’ Choice

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economic Policy Volume 32, Issue 92, October 2017

Articles Editors’ Choice

Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis – Sascha O Becker, Thiemo Fetzer and Dennis Novy

‘On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU). We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immigration and trade provides relatively little explanatory power for the referendum vote. Instead, we find that fundamental characteristics of the voting population were key drivers of the Vote Leave share, in particular their education profiles, their historical dependence on manufacturing employment as well as low income and high unemployment. At the much finer level of wards within cities, we find that areas with deprivation in terms of education, income and employment were more likely to vote Leave. Our results indicate that a higher turnout of younger voters, who were more likely to vote Remain, would not have overturned the referendum result. We also compare our UK results to voting patterns for the far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the 2017 French presidential election. We find similar factors driving the French vote. An out-of-sample prediction of the French vote using UK estimates performs reasonably well.’

[Full Text – Free access] [PDF]


Related Links:
Economic Policy Volume 32, Issue 92, October 2017 - Articles Editors’ Choice

Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Blogger’s EU and Brexit blog

#LSEBrexitvote/Swati Dhingra/Is leaving the Customs Union the right move?

Will the UK be able to strike better trade deals than the European Union once it leaves the EU? Dr Swati Dhingra interview.

Related interview

#LSEBrexitvote/Swati Dhingra/Is leaving the Customs Union the right move?

London School of Economics and Political Science

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTGh-m6emr4


Related Links:
The Blogger’s EU and Brexit blog - #LSEBrexitvote/Swati Dhingra/Is leaving the Customs Union the right move?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC London 94.9 (Radio)

Snippet: ..Discussion of study showing cost of Brexit on London


Related Links:
BBC London 94.9 (Radio) - Snippet: ..Discussion of study showing cost of Brexit on London

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Stephen Machin webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald (Scotland)

New analysis suggests Scotland would lose billions of pounds with Brexit

Every part of Scotland and the UK as a whole would be affected by a soft Brexit, which would retain access to the single market during a transition period, according to the London School of Economics (LSE). However, its experts warned they would suffer a much worse fate under a hard no-deal Brexit.


Related Links:
The Herald (Scotland) - New analysis suggests Scotland would lose billions of pounds with Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Birmingham Mail

Birmingham would lose almost £7 billion from a ‘hard Brexit’

Birmingham would be the second most damaged city in Britain by a hard Brexit, new research has revealed. The city's economy would lose £6.82 billion over five years. The figures, published by the respected Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, show how much the city's economy would shrink if the UK left the European Union without a deal giving us full access to the Single Market and the Customs Union.


Related Links:
Birmingham Mail - Birmingham would lose almost £7 billion from a ‘hard Brexit’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Standard

Hard Brexit ‘would cost London more than £100bn’

London boroughs from the suburbs to the City stand to lose billions of pounds from Brexit, new research revealed today. The impact of a “hard” exit without a trade deal would cost the capital’s economy over £100 billion over five years, while a softer departure could cost some £58 billion. The impact would be heaviest in the City of London which would lose £22 billion from a 9.5 per cent drop in output in a hard Brexit, according to an analysis of London School of Economics studies by the Liberal Democrats.


Related Links:
Evening Standard - Hard Brexit ‘would cost London more than £100bn’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

ChronicleLive (Newcastle)

This is how much a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would drain out of Newcastle and the rest of the North East

Newcastle’s economy would shrink by £1.92bn, a fall in economic output of 5%. The figures, published by the respected Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, show how much the city’s economy would shrink if the UK left the European Union without a deal giving us full access to the Single Market and the Customs Union.


Related Links:
ChronicleLive (Newcastle) - This is how much a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would drain out of Newcastle and the rest of the North East

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Brabants Dagblad (Netherlands)

Ingezonden(Letters)

A response to the interview with Thomas Sampson about the 'Devil's Dilemma of the Brexit'. I know many English who voted for Brexit, and almost all of them are highly educated. The reasons for this are the same: the immigration problem, and want to maintain their own sovereignty. Unraveling the more than 1,000 lines and laws shows how far the tentacles of the EU have already been infiltrated! With the influence of President Macron it will be even worse. As for the jobs that would disappear, I would not worry too much, just like the thought of trade. There will be adjustments simply because it is also in the interests of the other EU countries.


Related Links:
Brabants Dagblad (Netherlands) - Ingezonden(Letters)

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mail online

Leaving the EU without a trade deal could cost Britain £430 BILLION over five years, warns Vince Cable

Using calculations based on research by the London School of Economics, the Lib Dems say that if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a deal, Britain’s economic output in the five years after Brexit would be reduced by 5.3 per cent, or £430 billion. Even if the UK agreed to a Norway-style arrangement, in which we retain full access to the Single Market, there would still be a reduction of 2.9 per cent – or £235 billion. London would be worst hit by a no-deal Brexit, with a £115 billion fall in output up to March 2024.


Related Links:
Mail online - Leaving the EU without a trade deal could cost Britain £430 BILLION over five years, warns Vince Cable

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 22/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Mirror

New Brexit research suggests Britain’s bill for leaving the EU without a deal

Leaving the EU will cost Britain £430billion over five years if no deal is done, research suggests. Even a “soft” Norway-style Brexit could cost the ­country £235billion – sparking serious fears for the economy. The analysis, seen by the Liberal Democrats, show all parts of the UK would be hit – from ­City of London financiers to industries in the regions. The analysis came from the London Schools of Economics Centre for Economic Performance. It found if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a trade deal, its economic output in the following five years would be down 5.3 per cent, equivalent to £430billion. Also in: Sunday Mirror - The People on 22 October 2017 'No-Deal Brexit to cost £430BN: Warning of economic turmoil for whole UK' [No link available]

 


Related Links:
Daily Mirror - New Brexit research suggests Britain’s bill for leaving the EU without a deal

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

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Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 21/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Naked Capitalism

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

Article by Thomas Sampson

It is too soon to know whether Brexit will be merely a diversion on the path to greater integration, a sign globalisation has reached its limits, or the start of a new era of protectionism. In recent work, I attempt to shed light on the implications of Brexit by summarising the research so far on the likely economic consequences of Brexit, and discussing the evidence on why the UK voted to leave the EU( Sampson 2017).

Related publications

Sampson, T (2017), “Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, forthcoming.


Related Links:
Naked Capitalism - Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Brexit: The economics of international disintegration

Article by Thomas Sampson

While we can estimate the economic impact of Brexit, we do not yet understand what made people vote for it. This column argues that political pro-Brexit rhetoric conflates two distinct hypotheses that have different policy implications. If voters wanted to reclaim sovereignty from the EU, they may view a negative economic impact as a price worth paying. But, if 'left-behind' voters blamed the EU for their economic and social problems, post-Brexit policy should focus on the underlying causes of discontent.

 

Related links

Sampson, T (2017), “Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, forthcoming.


Related Links:
Vox - Brexit: The economics of international disintegration

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Spectator

Will the City thrive after Brexit?

While talk of a sudden exodus might be overblown, there is a danger that jobs in the sector could gradually slip away from the capital. Barclays’ Peter Gordon says that, over the next decade, ‘we might lose the battle to New York… to Paris and elsewhere’. He argues that the key thing to avoid this is continue access to the single market. That’s the ‘pinch point’ of Brexit, he says. Dr Swati Dhingra from the LSE agrees. It’s market access that matters, she says. Take Swiss banks: there’s a reason they base themselves in Britain rather than closer to home. They do this because Switzerland’s status outside the EU means it doesn’t benefit from the same access as the UK does currently. ‘It’s also about future regulation,’ says Dhingra. Brexit will inevitably change the way banks operate in Britain. But how? We still don’t know. It’s this uncertainty of current and future regulations that matters for investments coming into the sector and the predicted negative economic impacts, she says.


Related Links:
The Spectator - Will the City thrive after Brexit?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Street.com

Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein trolls Britain’s Brexit plans with Frankfurt tweet

The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance and Centre for Cities estimates the British capital could lose as much as £18 billion ($23.7 billion) in annual revenue and as many as 30,000 jobs, a figure that EY suggests could rise to 83,000 in a worst-case "Hard Brexit" scenario.


Related Links:
The Street.com - Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein trolls Britain’s Brexit plans with Frankfurt tweet

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

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Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Spectator – Coffee House blog

The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

A major impediment to clarity has been the weight of advice from what Michael Gove calls ‘organisations with acronyms’ suggesting that  a ‘no deal’ on trade will greatly damage the UK economy. Our careful and detailed re-evaluation of the reports issued by the Treasury, OECD, the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance and others, shows that much of this was wrong. The key flaw in each case was the use of inappropriate benchmarks to judge the potential losses to the UK economy.


Related Links:
Spectator – Coffee House blog - The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Freakonomics Radio

Podcast - What are the secrets of the German economy - and should we steal them?

Podcast - What are the secrets of the German economy - and should we steal them?

Daniel Sturm interviewed alongside four other economists about the German economy.

Related publications

'History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports', Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm and Nikolaus Wolf, The Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3), August 2011

http://personal.lse.ac.uk/sturmd/papers/Redding-Sturm-Wolf-REStat-2011.pdf


Related Links:
Freakonomics Radio - Podcast - What are the secrets of the German economy - and should we steal them?

CEP Trade

Daniel M. Sturm webpage


News Posted: 12/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

London Review of Books

Letters – Vol 39 No. 20 19 October 2017 How not to do trade deals

Letter by Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta

Martin Sanderson points out that manufacturing accounts for only a small share of the UK workforce, and reasons that it is hardly right to say blue-collar British workers determined the referendum result (Letters, 5 October). We agree that the share is small – about 10 per cent – but the term is used to refer collectively to people in the regions of the UK that have suffered from the decline in manufacturing over the past thirty years, before which manufacturing accounted for 30 per cent of the workforce. Regions that relied directly or indirectly on manufacturing (including those dependent on tourism, for example), have experienced low and stagnating real wages. The work of our colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics shows that people in these lagging regions were more likely to vote to leave the EU.

Related articles

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals

‘Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas’, Monica Langella and Alan Manning, LSE British Politics and Policy blog, July 6, 2016

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/explaining-the-vote-for-brexit/


Related Links:
London Review of Books - Letters – Vol 39 No. 20 19 October 2017 How not to do trade deals

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 11/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Journal Articles

‘The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network’

Shaun Larcom; Ferdinand Rauch; Tim Willems, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 132, Issue 4, November 2017

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx020


Related Links:
CEP Journal Articles - ‘The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network’

The upside of London Tube strikes

The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network

CEP Trade

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 10/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Maui News - blog

Mutually assured destruction

In the London Review of Books, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta (economists in London) run down all the difficulties facing Britain in withdrawing from the European Union, in an article called “How Not to Do Trade Deals.” (See https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals). It turns out it is hard to recruit partners into an economic suicide pact. Who could have guessed?

Related articles

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals


Related Links:
The Maui News - blog - Mutually assured destruction

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 10/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Pembrokeshire council vote for Brexit working group

A working group will be set up to prepare Pembrokeshire for the effect of Brexit, following a council vote. The county could lose £35.4m in trade if the United Kingdom opts for a "hard" Brexit, according to a report by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
BBC News - Pembrokeshire council vote for Brexit working group

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 09/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Times

Still clueless on Brexit – and it is taking its toll

… Whether post-EU frictionless trade is even possible remains to be seen. In an article in the London Review of Books, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta of the London School of Economics pour cold water on t...

Related article

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals


Related Links:
The Sunday Times - Still clueless on Brexit – and it is taking its toll

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 08/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Ad.nl (Netherlands)

Brexit: van ‘taking back our money’ komt niets terecht/Brexit: 'taking back our money' is nothing wrong

Interview: Een harde Brexit kost iedere Brit 10 procent aan inkomen. Dat becijferde de jonge, gezaghebbende econoom Thomas Sampson. “Het aan banden leggen van het persoonsverkeer is heel kostbaar.”

Interview: A hard Brexit costs every Brit 10 per cent of income. That said the young, authoritative economist Thomas Sampson. "Carrying personal traffic is very expensive."

According to Thomas Sampson, the damage can only be limited if Prime Minister Theresa May insists almost all of the brexit's promises. But that does not seem to be a feasible card, politically. For many years, the economist has been studying economic models that chart the pros and cons of international trade.

Related links

Thomas Sampson CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=sampson


Related Links:
Ad.nl (Netherlands) - Brexit: van ‘taking back our money’ komt niets terecht/Brexit: 'taking back our money' is nothing wrong

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Western Telegraph

Report to Pembrokeshire County Council cabinet compares likely impact of Brexit to Sea Empress oil disaster

Brexit will hit Pembrokeshire harder than the Sea Empress disaster, according to a comparison made in a report for Cabinet next week. The Director of Development’s report ahead of an agenda item called 'Planning for Brexit' outlines a proposal that the County Council prepare for the change in financial circumstances likely once the UK “terminates” its membership of the EU. The report acknowledges the likely impact on Pembrokeshire is difficult to assess but looked at the findings of a study carried out by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Western Telegraph - Report to Pembrokeshire County Council cabinet compares likely impact of Brexit to Sea Empress oil disaster

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP at Party Conferences 2017

Labour Party Conference

Immigration Minister Rt Hon Brandon Lewis stated that the government was not looking to push skilled workers to leave the UK but to implement changes for further down the line to meet the demand for less migration balanced with allowing the economy to prosper. The Minister also referred to the importance of the Migration Advisory Committee which will feed into final decisions. The second LSE fringe event had a migration focus and was entitled ‘Mind the Skills Gap. A migration trade off?’. Chaired by Prof. Tony Travers, the panelists included the Minister of State for Immigration Rt Hon. Brandon Lewis MP and LSE alumnus Syed Kamall MEP . They were joined by Dr Swati Dhingra, Vicky Price, LSE alumna and Board Member for CEBR and Caroline Artis, Senior London Partner at Ernst & Young.

 

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a41a2fedb33c8943326acba1d/_compresseds/73617f3e-f6c7-452b-ad5e-4516d835232c.jpgThe shadow Immigration Minister Paul Blomfield suggested that whilst the party has now started the immigration conversation it hasn't done it well to date at the Labour Party Conference in Brighton the week before. The Shadow Minister said that the door will not just shut on migration for industries like hospitality and healthcare. There was also a focus on the lack of adult education and suggested improvements and alternatives were discussed. The 'Mind the Skills Gap. A migration Trade off?' event panel included Chi Onwurah MP, Shadow Minister for Industrial Strategy, Science and Innovation and Paul Blomfield MP the Shadow Minister for Exiting the European Union. Prof. Tony Travers chaired the event, and was joined by Dr Swati Dhingra and John Springfield, Centre for European Reform. The audience included, among others, journalists and lawyers.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
CEP at Party Conferences 2017 - Labour Party Conference

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Engagement

Conservative Party Conference

CAGE/SMF event at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester on Brexit. Dennis Novy talked about issues related to international trade, in particular the EU Single Market and customs union and potential new trade agreements.


Related Links:
CEP Engagement - Conservative Party Conference

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 03/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Mail

Trump goes to war with World Trade Organisation

Dennis Novy, professor of economics at the University of Warwick, said the tariff slapped on Bombardier was ‘designed to completely kill’ the C-Series programme. ‘Trump is telling the rest of the world that he doesn’t care about the rules,’ he said.


Related Links:
Daily Mail - Trump goes to war with World Trade Organisation

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 29/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Beacon

How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit - even outside the Single Market

Too many economists have refused to take seriously the idea that Brexit has the potential to provide economic benefits to the UK. Before the referendum, Treasury economists assured the public that a vote to leave would cause “an immediate and profound shock to our economy” leading to recession and a large increase in unemployment. These are predictions that have since proved to be very wide of the mark. Modelling by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicted that leaving the EU could only have negative consequences for the UK economy


Related Links:
The Beacon - How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit - even outside the Single Market

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 28/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit: 'Zero chance' leaving EU will make Britons better off, Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman says

Exclusive: Krugman rejects the assertions of Brexiteers that leaving the single market and customs union will ultimately help the UK export more to the rest of the world. A study by economists at the London School of Economics has estimated the damage could be as great as 9.5 per cent of GDP if the UK leaves the EU without a free trade deal.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit: 'Zero chance' leaving EU will make Britons better off, Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman says

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe blog

Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

Article by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon. On trade, the PM reiterated that the UK would be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union after Brexit. The UK would not pursue off-the-shelf arrangements, like those of Norway and Canada, as models for a future trade deal with the EU. The PM acknowledged that the Norway model would provide high levels of market access but it would also require free movement of people and adopting many of EU’s rules (without having a say in them). The Canada model would overcome these two issues, but it would not go very far in maintaining market access, particularly in services trade.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe blog - Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LBC Radio - Live with Nick Ferrari

How much does a #Brexit transition period help British business?

Dennis Novy was interviewed. The topic was the potential Brexit transition period, and to what extent it would help British business.

 

Related links

[subscription required]

http://lbc.audioagain.com/presenters/7-nick-ferrari/101-the-whole-show

 


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 27/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Les Echos (France)

Productivity is cultivated

Over the last decade, economists have worked hard on the impact of management on productivity. The effectiveness of management, measured by a set of indicators (quality of internal monitoring, setting clear objectives, promoting talent, appropriate incentives, etc.) remains a strength of America. Economists Nicholas Bloom of Stanford, Raffaella Sadun of Harvard and John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics estimate that management accounts for one-third of countries' total factor productivity lag in the United States covering 11,000 enterprises in 34 countries). Technological progress may be slowing down. But there are still huge fields of productivity to cultivate.


Related Links:
Les Echos (France) - Productivity is cultivated

Management as a Technology?

Management Practices Across Firms and Countries

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Nick Bloom webpage

Raffaella Sadun webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Independent (Daily Edition)

Zero chance Brexit will make UK better off, Nobel laureate economist says

A study by economists at the London School of Economics has estimated the damage could be as great as 9.5 per cent of GDP if the UK leaves the EU without a free trade deal.

Related article

‘The cost of Brexit to trade? At least £850 per household, per year’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, LSE Brexit blog, 19 March 2017

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/03/19/the-cost-of-brexit-to-trade-at-least-850-per-household-per-year/


Related Links:
The Independent (Daily Edition) - Zero chance Brexit will make UK better off, Nobel laureate economist says

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

Theresa May stepped in to lead the discussion on what the UK hopes to achieve from its Brexit negotiations with the EU. Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon (CEP, LSE) argue that her Florence speech has set the tone for details that are yet to come.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

CEP Trade

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 25/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economist

Letters to the Editor: Patrick Minford responds

Rather, by using detailed quality-adjusted OECD prices we reach roughly the same estimates of nontariff barriers that the researchers at the London School of Economics cite for their own w...


Related Links:
Economist - Letters to the Editor: Patrick Minford responds

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 23/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

European Union News – Durham University: Thought Leadership

How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit – even outside the single market

Professor of Finance and Economics, Kevin Dowd (Durham University), Professor David Paton (Nottingham University) and Professor David Blake (University of London) discuss how the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit…. Too many economists have refused to take seriously the idea that Brexit has the potential to provide economic benefits to the UK. Before the referendum, Treasury economists assured the public that a vote to leave would cause “an immediate and profound shock to our economy” leading to recession and a large increase in unemployment. These are predictions that have since proved to be very wide of the mark. Modelling by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicted that leaving the EU could only have negative consequences for the UK economy.


Related Links:
European Union News – Durham University: Thought Leadership - How the UK can benefit from a free trade future after Brexit – even outside the single market

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 20/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

MoneyWeek

The UK cities that will be most affected by Brexit

It’s important to realise that, while Brexit will have an effect on the whole of the UK, it will not be spread evenly around the country. In an attempt to look at the relative winners and losers, the think-tank Centre for Cities and the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance teamed up to produce Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities.  This report, by Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman, attempts to model the impact on a much finer level.


Related Links:
MoneyWeek - The UK cities that will be most affected by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 19/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP citations/impact

Brexit reading list: economic, business and transport policy issues’, Gloria Taylor, Briefing Paper No.07830, House of Commons Library

This paper provides information on and/or links to a selection of analysis, comment and

statistics on:

- Trade negotiations, tariffs and custom duties

- Domestic economic policy and public expenditure

- the EU budget, contributions, grants and loans

- Business and industry, state aid and SMEs,

- Employment, training, pay and the cost of living

- Regional economic development and transport

- Issues for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

 

There is also a list of Library briefing papers and parliamentary committee reports.

 

3. Trade

p.8 references ‘Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations’, Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis, LSE, Paper CEPBREXIT09, October 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/BREXIT/abstract.asp?index=5242


Related Links:
CEP citations/impact - Brexit reading list: economic, business and transport policy issues’, Gloria Taylor, Briefing Paper No.07830, House of Commons Library

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit: reflections on the first weekend

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit has just completed its first weekend of deliberations. As an earlier post explained, the Assembly is a gathering of people from across the UK who have been randomly selected to reflect the make-up of the electorate. They are meeting over two weekends to learn about options for the form Brexit should take – focusing on the issues of trade and immigration – discuss what they make of these options, and draw conclusions. … Our expert speakers also delivered magnificently. Angus Armstrong, David Paton, Thomas Sampson, and Shanker Singham spoke on trade policy.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit: reflections on the first weekend

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta: how not to do trade deals

Article by Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra: About half of Britain’s trade and investment is with the EU, and currently, as members, we implement almost the same standards for products and services. One of the few concrete things stated in the government’s white paper on Brexit was its intention to establish UK trading schedules – including import tariffs and quotas – at the World Trade Organisation, replicating ‘our existing trade regime as far as possible’. If no trade deals were struck with the EU after Brexit, the EU and UK would need to charge each other the tariffs they charge other WTO members. The average tariff rate is low – around 1.5 per cent – but some products attract higher tariffs. Cars, for example, incur a 10 per cent tariff, which the head of European manufacturing at Nissan stated would be a ‘disaster’ for the UK industry.


Related Links:
London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017 - Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta: how not to do trade deals

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Portfolio (Hungary)

Sok munka, sok adó: így élnek a londoni magyarok/There is a lot of work and a lot of taxes: so do the Hungarians living in London

Last year before the Brexit referendum, the Center for Economic Performance (CEP) produced a study on the economic impacts of Eastern European immigrants. The London School of Economics, a research institute from the results of labor market surveys, concluded that immigrants from the EU are typically younger, more skilled and more likely than the British born.


Related Links:
Portfolio (Hungary) - Sok munka, sok adó: így élnek a londoni magyarok/There is a lot of work and a lot of taxes: so do the Hungarians living in London

Immigration and the UK Economy

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

The great trade reset

Snippet: ...means goods will be subject to proof-of-origin checks as they cross borders. Research suggests this process adds extra cost on average to the underlying value of the goods, according to Nikhil Datta, a researcher at the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance...


Related Links:
Financial Times - The great trade reset

CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

GetReading

See how MPs for Berkshire voted in the Brexit Repeal Bill

Earlier in the summer, research from think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics revealed Reading is likely to be one of the areas hit hardest by Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
GetReading - See how MPs for Berkshire voted in the Brexit Repeal Bill

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 12/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Social Europe

How Bad Will Brexit Really Be For The UK?

The great majority of the economic forecasts have concluded that Brexit will damage the UK economy. In the case of ‘no deal’ between the UK and the EU, the majority view is that the loss of GDP could be severe. The UK Treasury, the OECD and the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Policy (CEP) all agreed, in reports published during the referendum campaign, that with no deal the loss of GDP by 2030 would be in the range of 7-10%. A free-trade agreement (FTA) would be little better.


Related Links:
Social Europe - How Bad Will Brexit Really Be For The UK?

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 08/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Journal Articles

‘Service Trade and Occupational Tasks: An Empirical Investigation’, Andrea Ariu and Giordano Mion, The World Economy, Volume 40, Issue 9, September 2017

10.1111/twec.12440  


Related Links:
CEP Journal Articles - ‘Service Trade and Occupational Tasks: An Empirical Investigation’, Andrea Ariu and Giordano Mion, The World Economy, Volume 40, Issue 9, September 2017

Service Trade and Occupational Tasks: An Empirical Investigation

CEP Trade

Giordano Mion webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

I've been working with colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) and the Centre for Cities (Naomi Clayton) to take a first look at the local economic impacts of Brexit. You can read the more technical CEP piece here and the less technical Centre for Cities piece here. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Oxford Times

Brexit has had 'little affect' on Oxford's finances, report finds

A report by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance had suggested Brexit would leave all British cities adversely affected.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Oxford Times - Brexit has had 'little affect' on Oxford's finances, report finds

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Conatus News

Post-Brexit Industrial Strategy – Dawn of a New Era for Britain?

The Centre for Economic Performance at London School of Economics has predicted a soft brexit is likely to increase the cost of EU trade by 2%, causing a subsequent 1% fall in British GDP, while a hard Brexit will see costs of trade increase by 8%, and a 2% fall in GDP…

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Conatus News - Post-Brexit Industrial Strategy – Dawn of a New Era for Britain?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Marginal Revolution

French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Snippet…Here is the amazing fact: today, 16 of France’s 20 largest cities are located on or near a Roman town, while only 2 of Britain’s 20 largest are. This difference existed even back in the Middle Ages. So who cares? Well, Britain’s cities in the middle ages are two and a half times more likely to have coastal access than France’s cities, so that in 1700, when sea trade was hugely important, 56% of urban French lived in towns with sea access while 87% of urban Brits did…

That is from A Fine Theorem, discussing a recent paper by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch.

Also in

Politics in theory and practice 

“Resetting the Urban Network,” G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

Snippet…Cities have two important properties: they are enormously consequential for people’s economic prosperity, and they are very sticky…..

https://politicstheorypractice.wordpress.com/2017/09/03/resetting-the-urban-network-g-michaels-f-rauch-2017/

 

Bullfax 

French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Even at a very local level, the France/Britain distinction holds: when Roman cities were within 25km of the ocean or a navigable river, they tended not to move in France, while in Britain they tended to reappear nearer to the water. The fundamental factor for the shift in both places was that developments in shipbuilding in the early middle ages made the sea much more suitable for trade and military transport than the famous Roman Roads which previously played that role.

These days, the French model is looking somewhat better, as Toulouse has held its ground more readily than has Liverpool.

That is from A Fine Theorem, discussing a recent paper by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch.

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-french-cities-are-roman-sites-rather-sea


Related Links:
Marginal Revolution - French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 03/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Marginal Revolution

Flooded Cities

Snippet…Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters.


Related Links:
Marginal Revolution - Flooded Cities

Flooded Cities

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 01/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

A Fine Theorem

Resetting the Urban Network, G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

..With incredible timing, Michaels and Rauch, alongside two other coauthors, have another working paper called Flooded Cities. Essentially, looking across the globe, there are frequent very damaging floods, occurring every 20 years or so in low-lying areas of cities…


Related Links:
A Fine Theorem - Resetting the Urban Network, G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 30/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

ilsole24ore

I nuovi confini dei Governatori / The new borders of the Governors

Article by Gianmarco Ottaviano

Snippet..”Even this year, central bankers find themselves in Jackson Hole, one of the world's off-piste ski shrines. And, in fact, being in a historical moment outside the usual beaten paths is a widespread feeling. However, it is not the feeling Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi want to convey.”…


Related Links:
ilsole24ore - I nuovi confini dei Governatori / The new borders of the Governors

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 25/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Politics.co.uk

Why is the government so afraid to publish its Brexit impact studies?

There has been a veritable flood of studies indicating what an economic disaster awaits us if the government pursue its preferred hard Brexit route. If the government's own studies contain anything to counter this overwhelmingly pessimistic outlook, why have they not been released? We can only conclude that either the government is running scared of its own extreme form of leaving the EU, or it wants to keep a lid on the dire consequences of it. It's probably safe to assume therefore that the government's own analysis agrees with a recent Local Business Survey. It showed that of 419 small and medium sized enterprises surveyed in the South West of England, 57% of exporters believed the impact of leaving the single market will be 'negative' or 'very negative'. This compared with just ten per cent who think the impact will be 'positive' or 'very positive'. Or a recent study from the Centre for Economic Performance that examined the negative impacts of trade barriers. It predicts that under either a soft or hard Brexit scenario, leaving the EU will have a devastating impact on the economic performance of our towns and cities.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
Politics.co.uk - Why is the government so afraid to publish its Brexit impact studies?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economist

Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy – but one disagrees

Patick Minford thinks that GDP could increase by 6.8%

Mr Minford’s calculations are based on dubious assumptions. He also ignores the “gravity” effect, whereby close neighbours trade more with each other. He reckons any fall in trade with the EU will automatically be made up elsewhere. He attributes all the rise in Britain’s trade with the EU since it joined in 1973 to trade diversion, not trade creation, ignoring evidence to the contrary. And he says all price differences are caused by protection, whereas most reflect differing quality or regulatory standards. Swati Dhingra and her colleagues at the London School of Economics have used their Brexit model to recalculate the gains of unilateral free trade. It reduces the loss from a hard Brexit, but only slightly, from 2.6% of GDP to 2.3%.


Related Links:
Economist - Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy – but one disagrees

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Style

Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim ‘defies gravity’

A leading quartet of economists have taken issue with a report by pro-Brexit counterparts that paints a rosy picture for Britain should the country leave the EU without any trade deals in place. The four professors at the London School of Economics say the vision outlined by their peers, led by Prof Patrick Minford at Cardiff University, simply does not add up.


Related Links:
Yahoo! Style - Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim ‘defies gravity’

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 22/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

City A.M.

DEBATE: Is the Economists for Free Trade £135bn figure realistic?

“NO – Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics.

Economists for Free Trade’s estimate is misleading nonsense. It is based on an economic model that bears no relation to the facts of the global economy and, consequently, is contradicted by the data on international trade. Most importantly, the Economists for Free Trade fail to take into account that trade costs are higher when the UK trades with more distant countries and that consumers care about where goods are made …”


Related Links:
City A.M. - DEBATE: Is the Economists for Free Trade £135bn figure realistic?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP on Twitter

Deputy Leader of SNP group in Westminster and SNP Economy spokesman Kirsty Blackman MSP retweeted LSE: RT @KirstySNP:

Here's a piece from LSE debunking Prof Minford's post-Brexit trade theories and a quote from him about industry – see http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/.


Related Links:
CEP on Twitter - Deputy Leader of SNP group in Westminster and SNP Economy spokesman Kirsty Blackman MSP retweeted LSE: RT @KirstySNP:

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

fDi Magazine

The Brexit toll on FDI: The evidence so far 22:42

Foreign investment has dropped sharply since the June 2016's referendum as investors are holding off investments waiting for more clarity on the future of the country outside the EU. LSE’s lecturer Dr Swati Dhingra and fDi Magazine’s editor-in-chief Courtney Fingar share their insights with podcast host Jacopo Dettoni and comment on the proposal of developing free trade zones within British ports once the country leaves the European bloc for good.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
fDi Magazine - The Brexit toll on FDI: The evidence so far 22:42

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post

Economist Who Claims £135billion Hard Brexit Boost For UK Guilty Of ‘Violence To Basic Facts Of Economic Life’

The policy, known as ‘Britain Alone’, was savaged by The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, which suggested Minford’s work disregarded 40 years of established theory.


Related Links:
Huffington Post - Economist Who Claims £135billion Hard Brexit Boost For UK Guilty Of ‘Violence To Basic Facts Of Economic Life’

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Die Presse

EU-Erweiterung war ein gutes Geschäft / EU enlargement was a good deal

The fact that the EU's eastern enlargement to the EU in 2004 was a win-win for the "old" 15 Member States of the Union as well as for the newcomers in Central and Eastern Europe is clear in view of the overall positive economic figures. A four-member research team has now investigated the extent to which the prosperity gains for the citizens of the old and new Member States and for high and low-skilled workers were achieved. In a recently published study, Lorenzo Caliendo (Yale University), Luca David Opromolla (Banco de Portugal), Fernando Parro (Johns Hopkins University) and Alessandro Sforza (London School of Economics) concluded that the prosperity gains were unequally distributed.

Related publications

“Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement”, Luca D. Opromolla, Fernando Parro, Alessandro Sforza. August 2017. http://faculty.som.yale.edu/lorenzocaliendo/COPS.pdf


Related Links:
Die Presse - EU-Erweiterung war ein gutes Geschäft / EU enlargement was a good deal

CEP Trade


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

In Facts - Stop destructive Brexit

BBC gifts Brexit economists too much credibility

The views of Economists for Brexit / Free Trade have repeatedly been rebuffed elsewhere, for example in a report by a group of economists at the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance. They predict a 2.3% economic loss from Minford’s policy, rather than the 4% gain he claims. They argue Minford “misunderstands the nature of regulations and product standards”, seeing harmonisation across the EU as a “pernicious plot by vested interests to raise prices” rather than a proven way to increase trade and competition in a modern economy. They also reject Minford’s assumptions that countries will buy only from the lowest-cost supplier and not consider other factors such as geographic proximity, transport costs and quality. The economists conclude that “theories need grounding in facts, not ideology”.


Related Links:
In Facts - Stop destructive Brexit - BBC gifts Brexit economists too much credibility

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim 'defies gravity'

The LSE quartet – professors Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen – do concede that there is, potentially, a very minor boost to going it alone.

Their own models suggest that should the UK leave the bloc and trade under WTO rules, maintaining import tariffs, income per person falls by 2.6%. Under the ‘Britain alone’ scenario of unilateral liberalisation after Brexit, UK real incomes still fall by 2.3%....


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - Leading economists say £135bn hard Brexit boost claim 'defies gravity'

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Teraz.sk (Slovak)

The departure of Britain from the EU without agreement would not be a disaster by the IEA

"Compared to the results that would result from trading between the UK and the EU under WTO rules, unilateral liberalization (non-imposition of duties) would provide the United Kingdom with benefits because it would reduce its import costs," said Thomas Sampson, London School of Economist Economics, who did not see the IEA report.


Related Links:
Teraz.sk (Slovak) - The departure of Britain from the EU without agreement would not be a disaster by the IEA

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

'No Deal' With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

“Compared to an outcome in which the U.K. and the EU traded under WTO terms, there would be benefits for the U.K. to unilaterally liberalizing as it would reduce the cost of imports,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the London School of Economics, who hadn’t seen the IEA report. “The cost is you’re giving away the bargaining chip that you would normally use to get concessions out of the EU.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg - 'No Deal' With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

American Journal of Transportation

'No Deal’ With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

“Compared to an outcome in which the U.K. and the EU traded under WTO terms, there would be benefits for the U.K. to unilaterally liberalizing as it would reduce the cost of imports,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the London School of Economics, who hadn’t seen the IEA report. “The cost is you’re giving away the bargaining chip that you would normally use to get concessions out of the EU.”


Related Links:
American Journal of Transportation - 'No Deal’ With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 17/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Record.com

One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

Trump's efforts to bring work back to the U.S. could eliminate some jobs that are already here. "Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive," said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. "Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind."


Related Links:
The Record.com - One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNN (TV)

Rosemary Church

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to CNN (host: Rosemary Church). The topic was the economic impact of Brexit, in particular a potential brain drain from the UK jobs market and the proposed post-Brexit customs arrangement with the European Union.

 

 


Related Links:
CNN (TV) - Rosemary Church

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

City A.M.

Instilling competitive gender quotas could end the Crisis of the Mediocre Men

…A paper in the latest American Economic Review (AER) provides an intriguing perspective on the issue.

Tim Besley of the LSE and two Swedish colleagues carried out a very detailed empirical analysis of elections in Sweden over a 20 year period. The title effectively summarises their work: Gender Quotas and the Crisis of the Mediocre Man.

Related publications

“Gender Quotas and the Crisis of the Mediocre Man: Theory and Evidence from Sweden”

Timothy Besley, Olle Folke, Torsten Persson, Johanna Rickne. American Economic Review, vol. 107, no. 8, August 2017. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160080&&from=f


Related Links:
City A.M. - Instilling competitive gender quotas could end the Crisis of the Mediocre Men

CEP Trade


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

radioszczecin.pl

Wielka Brytania chce okresu przejściowego. Komentarze po dokumencie rządu / Britain wants a transition period. Comments after government document

The British government has issued a document on Tuesday expressing its willingness to ensure both sides have the greatest stability for several years after the Brexite, and at the same time it was time for London to negotiate agreements with the United States or India. Dr. Thomas Sampson, however, believes that the plan is too ambitious. - I would be very surprised if the Union and London reached an agreement before March 2019. I expect that this transition period will primarily serve to get more time to complete the negotiations, rather than simply putting into effect their results. Until we know what the deal looks like, it will be very difficult for Britain to make a commitment to other countries, "says Thomas Sampson.


Related Links:
radioszczecin.pl - Wielka Brytania chce okresu przejściowego. Komentarze po dokumencie rządu / Britain wants a transition period. Comments after government document

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Record.com

One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

"Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive," said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. "Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind."…

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
The Record.com - One U.S. factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNN

CNN Live

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to CNN (host: Rosemary Church). The topic was the economic impact of Brexit, in particular a potential brain drain from the UK jobs market and the proposed post-Brexit customs arrangement with the European Union.


Related Links:
CNN - CNN Live

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Times of Tunbridge Wells

Report claims Brexit will sting whatever guise it comes in…

THE economies of both Tunbridge Wells and Tonbridge will suffer in the coming years due to Brexit, a new report by the London School of Economics claims. Titled The Local Economic Effects of Brexit, the study shows every authority in the UK will see its prosperity curtailed regardless of whether it is a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. According to the report, if the UK was to undertake a ‘hard Brexit’, then in the ten years after crashing out of the EU the economy of Tunbridge Wells will be 2.6 per cent smaller than if it had stayed in. … The report’s authors, who work for the university’s Centre for Economic Performance, state they have modelled their estimates on ‘medium to long run impact of changes to trade costs’, and have ignored effects on innovation, immigration and inward investment.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Times of Tunbridge Wells - Report claims Brexit will sting whatever guise it comes in…

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bankier (Poland)

Expert: Britain wants to speed up trade talks with brexitas

Dr Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics (LSE) said on Tuesday that the publication of UK government plans for a transition period and regulations after the breit suggests that London wants to speed up talks on a future free trade agreement with the EU.

Related Links:
Bankier (Poland) - Expert: Britain wants to speed up trade talks with brexitas

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

TVN24bis.pl

"Londyn chce przyspieszenia rozmów o handlu po brexicie" / "London wants to speed up talks about trade after brexit"

Dr Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics (LSE) said that the publication of the UK government's plans for a transition period and regulations after the breit suggests that London wants to speed up talks on a future free trade agreement with the European Union.

Also in

PolskieRadio.pl

Ekspert: pobrexitowy okres przejściowy nie pomoże Londynowi w zawieraniu umów z krajami pozaeuropejskimi / Expert: The transitional transition will not help London in concluding agreements with non-European countries

The London-backed transition period will not help the United Kingdom in entering into new trade agreements with countries outside the European Union, "said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the London School of Economics.

http://www.polskieradio.pl/5/3/Artykul/1818996,Ekspert-pobrexitowy-okres-przejsciowy-nie-pomoze-Londynowi-w-zawieraniu-umow-z-krajami-pozaeuropejskimi


Related Links:
TVN24bis.pl - "Londyn chce przyspieszenia rozmów o handlu po brexicie" / "London wants to speed up talks about trade after brexit"

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC TV

Victoria Derbyshire

Dr Swati Dhingra talks about the customs union plan.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
BBC TV - Victoria Derbyshire

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Fox Business

U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

Also, the U.K. paper isn't a negotiating document and presented technical ideas that weren't fully developed and lacked significant detail. The two long-term approaches "are worth exploring further, but the hard work of assessing whether these ideas could work in practice has yet to be done," wrote Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics in a blog.

Related article

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/15/uk-governments-customs-position-paper-fails-to-answer-key-questions/


Related Links:
Fox Business - U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

4-traders

U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

LONDON -- The U.K. government proposed a far-reaching customs arrangement with the European Union that it said would eliminate the need for border checks on imports and exports after Brexit. The "new customs partnership" with the EU was one of two suggestions the government put forward on Tuesday in a paper detailing its thinking on customs before resuming talks with Brussels this month over terms of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. … Also, the U.K. paper isn't a negotiating document and presented technical ideas that weren't fully developed and lacked significant detail. The two long-term approaches "are worth exploring further, but the hard work of assessing whether these ideas could work in practice has yet to be done," wrote Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics in a blog.

Related article

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/15/uk-governments-customs-position-paper-fails-to-answer-key-questions/


Related Links:
4-traders - U.K. proposes broad customs deal with EU after Brexit – 2nd update

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

 

Related article

LSE Brexit blog

UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

The UK government’s new position paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson from the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/15/uk-governments-customs-position-paper-fails-to-answer-key-questions/


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - UK government’s customs position paper fails to answer key questions

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNBC online

One US factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

"Altering Nafta could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive," said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. "Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind."

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
CNBC online - One US factory goes global, while Trump shrinks the world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Honolulu Star Advertiser

One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

The latest concern unfolds this week, as the Trump administration begins to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, redrawing the terms of commerce with Mexico and Canada. “Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind.”

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
Honolulu Star Advertiser - One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

New York Times

One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

The latest concern unfolds this week, as the Trump administration begins to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, redrawing the terms of commerce with Mexico and Canada. “Altering NAFTA could fundamentally change the production of the economy — for the U.S., as well as for Mexico — and that will be very disruptive,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Many of the policies being proposed could end up hurting the people who are being left behind.”

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
New York Times - One U.S. factory goes global while Trump shrinks world

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Forsal.Pl (Poland)

What about international trade after brexit? Here are the possibilities and their consequences

The Center for Economic Performance estimated that in the case of such a scenario over the decade, trade would have fallen by 40 percent and average income by 2.6 percent.


Related Links:
Forsal.Pl (Poland) - What about international trade after brexit? Here are the possibilities and their consequences

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 14/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

The regions can be our road to revival, but only if transport links are improved

A rebalancing is long overdue. “Regional disparities are wider in the UK than other western European countries,” according to the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance. One reason why London’s productivity, and hence wealth, is so much greater than Britain’s other cities is the sophistication of the commuter network. Studies have shown that people tolerate roughly an hour’s travel but much more than that and the pool of labour available to an employer shrinks. With such a shallow pool of talent in sites as stranded as Cheshire science park, business would have to think twice about putting down roots.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017 

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Times - The regions can be our road to revival, but only if transport links are improved

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 12/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

KentLive

Thanet is predicted to be the worst affected area in Kent by a ‘soft Brexit’

Experts have predicted that Thanet would be the hardest hit area of Kent in a 'soft Brexit' scenario. A new study by the London School of Economics revealed that Thanet could lose £27.2 million – based largely on the assumption the UK could still negotiate access to the EU single market.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
KentLive - Thanet is predicted to be the worst affected area in Kent by a ‘soft Brexit’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Politics

Britain’s Not-So-Sweet Options for an EU Trade Deal

What if there is no deal?

A “very, very bad outcome,” in the words of Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. The U.K. would regain control of laws, money, immigration and ability to negotiate trade pacts. If pushed it could even slash taxes and regulations to create a Singapore-style economy focused on drawing investment. (Embracing fully free trade could increase the U.K.’s long-term gross domestic product by 4 percent, according to Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School.) But U.K. exporters would be subject to World Trade Organization duties and multiple non-tariff barriers. A hard border with Ireland would be needed, Britain-based airlines might not be able to land on the continent and the transportation of nuclear material would be impeded. The Center for Economic Performance estimated trade would fall 40 percent over a decade and average income by 2.6 percent in the no-deal scenario.


Related Links:
Bloomberg Politics - Britain’s Not-So-Sweet Options for an EU Trade Deal

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Prospect magazine

Hard or soft, Brexit will hit every British city—and pro-Leave areas will find it hardest to recover

People up and down the country can ill afford for silly season squabbles to distract us from the complexity of Brexit

…amidst the summer politicking and parties, a new report by Centre for Cities should make for sobering reading for Government ministers, particularly those pushing for a hard Brexit. The report (published in partnership with the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE) charts for the first time the likely impact of both a hard or soft Brexit on UK cities in the decade after new trade arrangements with the EU are put in place - and in both scenarios, the news isn’t good.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
Prospect magazine - Hard or soft, Brexit will hit every British city—and pro-Leave areas will find it hardest to recover

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Liberation.fr (France)

Sorti de l’UE: l’orchestre cacophonique de Londres/Exit of the EU: the cacophony orchestra of London

Theresa May on vacation, the ministers of soft and hard Brexit clash in the most perfect disorder. Economists, on the other hand, predict a decline in growth.

The government's hesitations have an impact on the economy. Time is of the essence, as uncertainty hangs over investment, warns Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England. Pessimistic, the institution has lowered its growth forecasts to 1.7% for 2017 and 1.6% for 2018. According to it, growth is penalized by the decline in the purchasing power of households. "The depreciation of the pound [which is worth 1.1 euro against 1.3 before the referendum] has led to an increase in inflation, which has reduced wage growth. Consumption has not yet declined, but households are saving less, "says Thomas Sampson, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics.

Related links

Thomas Sampson CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=sampson


Related Links:
Liberation.fr (France) - Sorti de l’UE: l’orchestre cacophonique de Londres/Exit of the EU: the cacophony orchestra of London

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 08/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CityMetric

Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

A lot of my time at work is given over to worrying fitfully about two things. One is cities policy. The other is Brexit. What could be more thrilling, then, than a report which combines those two topics into a single piece of research? The answer, as it turns out, is almost anything, because this report is one of the most depressing things I’ve seen in ages. The study, a joint effort between the Centre for Cities and LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, looks at what both “Hard” and “Soft” Brexit would do to the economies of 62 British cities. (In the unlikely event you’re unsure, “soft” Brexit means we stay in a free trade area with the EU, but have to content with new non-tariff barriers; “hard” Brexit means we have to deal with tariffs as well.)

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
CityMetric - Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 07/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wales online

Top economists have calculated the impact of a soft or hard Brexit on Swansea

Their research found that every local authority would be negatively affected under either scenario but concluded that the economic impact of leaving the single market and customs union would be around twice as severe as a milder Brexit. The academics said they were surprised that the additional cost of a hard Brexit was significantly higher in some areas than others – and cited the nature of industry and employment in those areas as the reason.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Wales online - Top economists have calculated the impact of a soft or hard Brexit on Swansea

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Spirit FM

West Sussex town ranked ‘second most affected' area post-Brexit

A new report by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicts Worthing will be on the places hit hardest by an expected downturn in trade after the country leaves the EU.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Spirit FM - West Sussex town ranked ‘second most affected' area post-Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Slough Express

Slough to be among top urban areas to feel negatie impact of Brexit, study says

New research suggests that Slough will be among the top five UK urban areas to be negatively impacted by Brexit. A report by the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance and think tank Centre for Cities says the South-east of England and urban areas will be hit the hardest. The paper, titled ‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, assesses the impact of trade barriers associated with 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit scenarios.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Slough Express - Slough to be among top urban areas to feel negatie impact of Brexit, study says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 05/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Press and Journal (Scotland)

‘Labour created the welfare state and will always fight to protect it'

Britain’s most successful cities with large high-skilled service sectors will be hit hardest by the expected downturn in trade after the UK leaves the EU. Sadly, that means bad news for Aberdeen. A report from the think-tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance placed the Granite City at the top of the list of “most affected” cities.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Press and Journal (Scotland) - ‘Labour created the welfare state and will always fight to protect it'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 04/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Trump wants to protect American jobs. His immigration bill would make us poorer.

Basically the only American-born group that you could even plausibly argue are harmed is high school dropouts. This is a fairly tiny group, but it’s not even clear they are harmed. Research by the University of Bologna's Gianmarco Ottaviano and UC Davis's Giovanni Peri finds that immigrants help the wages of even low-skilled American workers.

Related publications

‘Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages’. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri, 2011. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x/full


Related Links:
Vox - Trump wants to protect American jobs. His immigration bill would make us poorer.

Immigration, Offshoring and American Jobs

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 03/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Somerset County Gazette

Taunton Deane economy could take a Brexit hit of 1.2% to 2.3%

BREXIT will damage the economic performance of Taunton Deane, according to new report. The Centre for Economic Performance believes the economy in the district will take a 1.2 per cent hit under a sort Brexit - that is to say if Britain remains in the single market and the customs union. But a hard Brexit - leaving the two organisations - would see the economy suffer to the tune of 2.3 per cent. Molly Scott Cato, Green MEP for the South West, said: “This new study shows that both a hard and soft form of Brexit will have a devastating impact on the economic performance of our towns and cities across the South West.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Somerset County Gazette - Taunton Deane economy could take a Brexit hit of 1.2% to 2.3%

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Heart Berkshire (Radio)

[06:00:00]

Snippet: ... Reading has come out third on a list of 10 towns in the UK most likely to be hit hardest by Brexit report of the London School of Economics says Dorsey a fall i...

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Heart Berkshire (Radio) - [06:00:00]

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Getreading

Reading has been named as one of the areas likely to be hit hardest by Brexit

A new report put Reading in third place of areas worst hit by a hard Brexit

A new report by the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics reveals the cities and towns most affected by a soft leaving of the European Union and a hard exit.

Professor Stephen Machin, from the Centre for Economic Performance, added: “This research shows that focusing on the likely local economic impacts of Brexit will be a critical ingredient for policymakers when thinking about how to offset the negative economic effects that loss of trade due to Brexit will bring.”

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Getreading - Reading has been named as one of the areas likely to be hit hardest by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

This is Wiltshire

Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The authors of the report, Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman of the LSE’s Centre For Economic Performance, said: “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard’ Brexit.”

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
This is Wiltshire - Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 01/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Swindon Advertiser

Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The London School of Economics has published an analysis of the possible effects of a ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ Brexit on towns and cities all over the country.

The report predicts that Swindon’s GVA will decline by 2.8 per cent under a hard Brexit and 1.5 per cent under a soft Brexit.

The authors of the report, Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman of the LSE’s Centre For Economic Performance, said: “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard’ Brexit.”

But Ian Larrard, the director of the Swindon and Wiltshire Initiative at Business West, shrugged off the findings and said there was good reason to be optimistic.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Swindon Advertiser - Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Fox in the chicken house is a boon to the SNP

We are also now beginning to see why Scots voted 2:1 to remain in the EU. The thinktank Centre for Cities has predicted that Scotland’s major cities will suffer the worst consequences of Brexit, hard or soft, owing to their higher than average exposure to international markets. Aberdeen is expected to be hardest hit, losing up to half a billion over the next 10 years. We already know that a rapid loss of EU subsidies is among the threats posed to the vast majority of Scottish farmers’ security by undermining their land prices.


Related Links:
Guardian - Fox in the chicken house is a boon to the SNP

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 30/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Valenciaplaza

el peor de los tiempos OPINIÓN Sectarismo, género y números / the worst of times OPINION - Sectarianism, gender and numbers

snippet… As can be seen, at the end of all this we have fallen into the trap, after accounting for the number of men and women.  Is this relevant when it comes to funding an international scientific meeting, with a tradition of 20 editions and attracting 200 researchers from 64 different institutions and from more than 30 countries?  There is no point in evaluating the work anonymously, nor that invited speakers are prestigious figures in International Economics like Gianmarco Ottaviano , professor at the London School of Economics, probably the most important university in Europe in Economics…


Related Links:
Valenciaplaza - el peor de los tiempos OPINIÓN Sectarismo, género y números / the worst of times OPINION - Sectarianism, gender and numbers

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 30/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gazette Live

Hard or soft Brexit? This is what experts think the impact could be on Middlesbrough either way

Middlesbrough has been singled out as one of the places which could be hardest hit by Brexit.

As the debate over the terms of the UK’s exit of the European Union continue to be debated, the potential impact on regional economies have been analysed by a think tank.

Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at London School of Economics said wealthy Southern cities will be hit hardest by both a ‘soft’ or ‘hard’ Brexit - but are also best placed to adapt to economic shocks ahead.

                  Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Gazette Live - Hard or soft Brexit? This is what experts think the impact could be on Middlesbrough either way

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 30/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Mirror

Brexit will hit hardest across the South of England - but one place in Scotland gets the brunt

Brexit will hit hardest in the South of England, ­according to new research. But although the more prosperous cities of the South will lose the most, they will find it easiest to adapt. Aberdeen in the North of Scotland will be worst affected however.


Related Links:
The Sunday Mirror - Brexit will hit hardest across the South of England - but one place in Scotland gets the brunt

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Appsforpcdaily.com

Brexit transition deal will end by 2022, says Philip Hammond

In findings released by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the potential impact of either Brexit "type" on major cities in the United Kingdom was analysed for the first time.


Related Links:
Appsforpcdaily.com - Brexit transition deal will end by 2022, says Philip Hammond

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Journal (Newcastle)

Brexit recovery harder for North East – study

…Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London…

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Journal (Newcastle) - Brexit recovery harder for North East – study

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

MSN

Brexit to hit Aberdeen worst as London set for 2.6% output fall

Brexit will hit Scottish oil capital Aberdeen the hardest of all Britain’s cities, with London also ranking highly and facing a medium-term blow to economic output of as much as 2.6 percent, academics at the London School of Economics said.


Related Links:
MSN - Brexit to hit Aberdeen worst as London set for 2.6% output fall

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Aberdeen to be worst hit by Brexit but all British cities will suffer

New research examining for the first time the potential impact of Brexit on cities and towns has found Aberdeen could be the hardest hit by higher trade costs with the European Union, though no British city will escape its effects.


Related Links:
The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

The UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

Article by Henry Overman: The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (working with the Centre for Cities think tank) has carried out a study shedding light upon the local economic impact of Brexit. Henry G. Overman writes that it is the richer cities, predominantly in the south of England, that will be hit hardest by Brexit, with this effect particularly apparent in areas specialised in services.


Related Links:
LSE British Politics and Policy blog - The UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

City AM

These are the six UK cities that will suffer most from a 'hard' Brexit

The study by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic performance at the London School of Economics found that cities with large high-skilled service sectors, such as business and financial services, are expected to be worst hit by potential tariff changes.

"This research shows that focusing on the likely local economic impacts of Brexit will be a critical ingredient for policymakers when thinking about how to offset the negative economic effects that loss of trade due to Brexit will bring," said Stephen Machin, from the Centre for Economic Performance.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
City AM - These are the six UK cities that will suffer most from a 'hard' Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Click Lancashire

Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

Smaller cities Crawley and Barnsley are predicted to have the lowest downturn in economic output of either a "hard" or "soft" Brexit, alongside cities like Hull and Wakefield. A new report today named Aberdeen as the United Kingdom city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit.

 

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Click Lancashire - Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Newburgh Gazette (Illinois, USA)

Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

Aberdeen and Edinburgh are the cities set to take the biggest financial hit when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, according to a think tank that predicts a downturn in trade even if ministers strike a “soft Brexit” deal. A new report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said all cities would see a fall in output due to increasing trade costs. Cities such as London, Aberdeen and Edinburgh voted against Brexit in last June’s referendum, the report pointed out.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Newburgh Gazette (Illinois, USA) - Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Energy Voice

Brexit's impact on Aberdeen ‘not as bad as thought', minister says

The impact of Brexit on Aberdeen’s economy will not be as bad as predicted, according to junior Brexit minister Robin Walker. Mr Walker was responding to a bombshell report from the Centre for Cities, whose analysis showed the Granite City’s economy would take the hardest hit in the UK from leaving the EU. The Conservative will visit Aberdeen today to meet oil and gas bosses as well as fishermen and listen to their views on negotiations with the EU.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Energy Voice - Brexit's impact on Aberdeen ‘not as bad as thought', minister says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The National (Scotland)

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp: Scotland WILL bear the brunt of Brexit recession

…Evidence again that any form of Brexit will do more damage to Scotland’s farming sector than it will to the UK as a whole. At least the city economies will be OK though? Not a chance. The report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, has predicted Aberdeen to suffer the most economic damage of all UK cities from Brexit and placed Edinburgh 6th on the hit list.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The National (Scotland) - Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp: Scotland WILL bear the brunt of Brexit recession

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aberdeen Evening Express

Aberdeen's politicians and businesses remain upbeat despite prediction City will suffer most from Brexit

Aberdeen can rise to the challenge of finding news ways to boost the economy, politicians and industry leaders said today. The confident comments come despite a report yesterday that predicts Brexit will hit Aberdeen’s economy the hardest of any UK city. Written by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School Economics, the report predicts Aberdeen’s economic output will shrink by up to 3.7%. Centre for Cities chief executive Andrew Carter said: “The challenge for Aberdeen will be to diversify its industrial structure in the years ahead, so that it is less reliant on one sector (oil and gas). “This will be crucial for the city to thrive after we leave the EU.” Aberdeen City Council leader, Cllr Jenny Laing, admitted there were “huge challenges” ahead, but said positive strides are being taken.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Aberdeen Evening Express - Aberdeen's politicians and businesses remain upbeat despite prediction City will suffer most from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Shropshire Star

Telford less likely to be hit by hard Brexit than other UK towns and cities

Telford will be among the UK towns least-affected by a hard Brexit, a report claims – although economists today denied its suggestion that a lack of skills in the town will cushion the blow.

Researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics published the report into the effect of Brexit on local economies.

In it, the think tank claims areas with greater skills bases will also be those that are hit the hardest by withdrawing from access to the European single market.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Shropshire Star - Telford less likely to be hit by hard Brexit than other UK towns and cities

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Chronicle Live

All areas of North East will be hit by Brexit, new study shows

All areas of the North East would be hit by Brexit and may take longer to recover than other parts of the country, a new study says. The study by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics predicts that economic output in the North East would be between 1.1% and 1.4% lower in the event of a “soft” brexit , but this would almost double to 2%-2.6% if the Government opts for a “hard” Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Chronicle Live - All areas of North East will be hit by Brexit, new study shows

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

The 6 UK cities that will suffer most from a ‘hard' Brexit

Wealthy Southern cities are predicted to be hardest hit by Brexit, according to a new report. The study, by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, found that cities with large high-skilled service sectors, such as business and financial services, are expected to be worst hit by potential tariff changes.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - The 6 UK cities that will suffer most from a ‘hard' Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Blackpool Gazette

Resort named in Brexit hit list

A think tank analysed the potential impact of both a “hard” and “soft” Brexit on British cities in the 10 years following the implementation of new trade arrangements with the EU. It is the most prosperous UK cities which will be hit hardest by the downturn ahead, but poorer places across the North and Midlands will find it tougher to adapt.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Blackpool Gazette - Resort named in Brexit hit list

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

Brexit will hit southern regions hardest while 'vote leave' areas to be least affected


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - Brexit will hit southern regions hardest while 'vote leave' areas to be least affected

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

i News

Brexit 'will hit cities and towns in southern England hardest'


Related Links:
i News - Brexit 'will hit cities and towns in southern England hardest'

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald (Scotland)

Scottish cities to pay highest price for Brexit


Related Links:
The Herald (Scotland) - Scottish cities to pay highest price for Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yorkshire Evening Post

'Leeds could be among hardest-hit by Brexit'


Related Links:
Yorkshire Evening Post - 'Leeds could be among hardest-hit by Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Public Sector Executive

Economy and infrastructure

All cities in the UK are looking set to see a fall in economic output regardless of whether a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit is delivered, experts have today warned – but more prosperous regions will be hit harder than others. In findings released by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the potential impact of either Brexit ‘type’ on major cities in the UK was analysed for the first time.


Related Links:
Public Sector Executive - Economy and infrastructure

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

STV online

News: Aberdeen ‘will be UK city worst hit by hard Brexit'

London and Edinburgh also ranked in the top ten list compiled by researchers at the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
STV online - News: Aberdeen ‘will be UK city worst hit by hard Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Insider.co.uk

Aberdeen ‘worst affected city in UK if there's a hard Brexit'

Centre for Cities and Centre for Economic Performance analysis also places Edinburgh sixth in a top ten of urban conurbations hit most if the country fails to strike a deal with the EU.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Insider.co.uk - Aberdeen ‘worst affected city in UK if there's a hard Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

International Business Times

Revealed: the cities Brexit will hit hardest

Aberdeen will be the hardest hit city in the UK by Brexit, according to a new report on the economic impact of withdrawal from the European Union (EU). Other cities or urban areas such as London, Slough and Edinburgh are in the top ten of a list compiled by researchers at the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
International Business Times - Revealed: the cities Brexit will hit hardest

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Planner

Brexit will hit southern UK cities hardest – report

Cities that are successful and have large high-skilled service sectors, mainly located in the south of England, will be hit the hardest by Brexit, whether it is ‘hard’ or ‘soft’. A report by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics (LSE) also says these cities are better placed to adapt to the economic shocks ahead compared with less affluent places that are less directly affected by Brexit. The report considers the impact both a soft and hard Brexit might have on British cities in the 10 years following new trade arrangements with the EU being implemented. Researchers say a hard Brexit would bring an average reduction of 2.3 per cent in economic input across all UK cities compared with a soft Brexit, which would result in a 1.2 per cent decrease. Whether the UK gets a hard or soft Brexit, the report suggests, cities that are doing economically well – predominantly in the south of England – would be hit the most directly and the hardest.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Planner - Brexit will hit southern UK cities hardest – report

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aberdeen Evening Express

Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

A new report today named Aberdeen as the UK city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit. London and Edinburgh also ranked in the top 10 list compiled by researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics. They analysed the potential impact of both a “hard” and “soft” Brexit on British cities in the 10 years following the implementation of new trade deals with the EU.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Aberdeen Evening Express - Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Commonspace

Brexit will hit Aberdeen harder than any other city in UK, report says

Research done by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics and the Centre for Cities predicted an economic downturn of 3.7 per cent for Aberdeen and 2.7 per cent in Edinburgh in the event of a hard Brexit. For a soft Brexit, the report expects the drop off to be 2.1 per cent for Aberdeen and 1.4 per cent in Edinburgh.

 

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Commonspace - Brexit will hit Aberdeen harder than any other city in UK, report says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bristol Post

Bristol to be one of the UK's cities worst hit by Brexit

The joint Centre for Cities and Centre for Economic Performance study predicts that Bristol’s economic output will decrease by up to 2.6 per cent – the 11th worst-hit city in the country. However, the report also states that Bristol will be well equipped to weather the downturn, due to its skilled and adaptable workforce. Published today, the report compares the fall in economic output of 63 cities across the UK depending on whether central government opts for a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Bristol Post - Bristol to be one of the UK's cities worst hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Politics

Here are the places in the UK that will be hit hardest by Brexit

Brexit will hit Scottish oil capital Aberdeen the hardest of all Britain’s cities, with London also ranking highly and facing a medium-term blow to economic output of as much as 2.6 percent, academics at the London School of Economics said. The researchers estimated that output in U.K. cities -- using a measure called gross value added -- will decline 2.3 percent on average, assuming a hard Brexit in which Britain trades with the European Union under World Trade Organization rules and tariffs. The drop under a soft Brexit, with a negotiated zero-tariff free-trade area but an increase in border controls and customs checks, was projected to be 1.2 percent lower.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Bloomberg Politics - Here are the places in the UK that will be hit hardest by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog

CEP study: the UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (working with the Centre for Cities think tank) has carried out a study shedding light upon the local economic impact of Brexit. Henry G. Overman writes that it is the richer cities, predominantly in the south of England, that will be hit hardest by Brexit, with this effect particularly apparent in areas specialised in services.

Our research (with Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin) looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a ‘soft’ and a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities, and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog - CEP study: the UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Wiltshire

(06:01:57)

Snippet: News that Swindon could be one of the cities worst hit by Brexit
Click to open

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

RES (Royal Economic Society) Newsletter

Conference Report 2017 'Divided we fall'

Perhaps the public knew that Brexit would drain their wallets, but voted for it anyway. Sometimes it’s not the economy, stupid. But Simon Wren-Lewis, of Oxford University, rubbished this idea, pointing out that those who voted for Brexit said they were unwilling to pay to reduce immigration. Instead, people seemed misinformed. Not only did those who voted to leave the EU think that they would be no worse off as a result, they thought that lower immigration would improve their access to public services. The problem, Mr Wren-Lewis argued, was with the media. Dismissing a large fraction as producers of propoganda, he reserved most disappointment for the BBC. It failed to communicate the consensus among economists, he said, treating it as opinion rather than knowledge. Swati Dhingra, of the London School of Economics, agreed, saying that the BBC’s quest to generate balance gave the false impression that there was a meaningful debate between economists. (Depressingly, she noted that this false balance had oozed into policymaking, as select committees are being stacked with pro-Brexit voices.)

Breakfast means breakfast

Amid the pastries, the presentations and the self-flagellation, it might have been easy to forget what the point of it all. An article in The Independent, previewing the conference, and highlighted by Paul Johnson on the first day of the conference, provided a helpful reminder. ‘Economics research can really improve people’s lives’, wrote Hamish McRae. While the public associates economics with GDP and abstract equations, much of the research presented at the conference was focused on how to make people’s lives better. Examples I saw included a paper presented by Christine Farquharson of the IFS, which suggested that free school breakfasts are a cheap way to help children do better in school. A panel discussion on re-skilling the UK between Steve Machin, Kirabo Jackson, Richard Burgess and Sandra McNally tossed around tax credits for investment in skills and training, a plea for more thinking about teacher quality, and from Kirabo Jackson, to think about the education system as a whole, rather than separate, substitutable stages. Football scheduling was on the list too: boys perform worse in exams when they coincide with international football tournaments.


Related Links:
RES (Royal Economic Society) Newsletter - Conference Report 2017 'Divided we fall'

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Scottish Sun

BREX HIT New report names Aberdeen as UK city predicted to be worst-hit by so-called hard Brexit

A NEW report has named Aberdeen as the UK city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit. Edinburgh also ranked in the top 10 list compiled by researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Scottish Sun - BREX HIT New report names Aberdeen as UK city predicted to be worst-hit by so-called hard Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

i paper

New study finds towns in South hit worst after Brexit

Towns and cities in the South of England will be hit hardest by Britain’s exit from Europe, according to a study that overturns assumptions that poorer areas of the UK will suffer the most. Researchers at the Centre for Cities think-tank and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics found that all British cities are set to see a drop in economic output, regardless of whether the Brexit deal is “hard” or “soft”, because of the predicted rise in the costs of trade.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
i paper - New study finds towns in South hit worst after Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times (Scotland)

Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

Aberdeen and Edinburgh are the cities set to take the biggest financial hit when the UK leaves the European Union, according to a think tank that predicts a downturn in trade even if ministers strike a “soft Brexit” deal.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Times (Scotland) - Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

SERC blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

Article by Henry Overman

I've been working with colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) and the Centre for Cities (Naomi Clayton) to take a first look at the local economic impacts of Brexit. You can read the more technical CEP piece here and the less technical CfC piece here. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017.

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
SERC blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Aberdeen ‘worst hit' by hard Brexit, experts predict

Aberdeen could be the city worst hit by falling economic output due to a "hard" Brexit, experts have predicted.

A new report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said all cities would see a fall in output due to increasing trade costs. Aberdeen and Edinburgh were both ranked among the ten most affected cities. However the study said both cities are also among the best-placed to respond to any predicted economic turbulence.


Related Links:
BBC News - Aberdeen ‘worst hit' by hard Brexit, experts predict

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

The three things businesses need to survive Brexit

While the Prime Minister seems to understand that trade with the European Union is sizeable, she also seems to be under the illusion that Britain can pick and choose during the Brexit negotiations. Let’s keep trade but stop immigration, payments to Brussels, and oversight from the European Court of Justice. This option won’t be available. The reality is that Britain faces a trade-off. More distance from the EU means bigger income loss. The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics estimates that a hard Brexit, i.e. falling back on World Trade Organization terms, will cut trade by 40% over 10 years. For the average household earning around £23,000, this translates into £600 less per year. The softest version of Brexit, i.e. the Norwegian model, still reduces trade by 20-25%, and household income by £300.

Related publications

‘The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.02, March 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

 


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - The three things businesses need to survive Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC2 TV

Victoria Derbyshire Show [around 10:30am]

Dennis Novy was live on the show.  The topic was the ongoing Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU in Brussels, and in particular what the potential outcome might be for Britain’s economy and international trade. The fellow panelists were Nigel Evans MP and James McGrory, Executive Director of Open Britain.


Related Links:
BBC2 TV - Victoria Derbyshire Show [around 10:30am]

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial

Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

The consequences of the UK failing to reach a deal with the EU will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive”, according to a new report featuring LSE experts.

Related publications

‘The Cost of No Deal’  The UK in a Changing Europe http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cost-of-No-Deal-The-UK-in-a-Changing-Europe.pdf

CEP Election Analysis: Brexit and the UK Economy, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson . May 2017 .Paper No' CEPEA040 http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
The Financial - Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

‘People may be overpaying for lease extensions says LSE research'

Dr Ted Pinchbeck, a Fellow in Real Estate Economics and Finance at LSE and one of the authors of the research, said: “Prices of leaseholds of different lengths provide direct new evidence on how people discount the very far future. Our results support the use of a time-declining discount rate, which is used for policy evaluation here in the UK, but not everywhere in the world. This kind of discount rate implies that people are actually willing to pay more or take action now to improve things in the distant future.

Related publications

‘The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates,’ Economic Journal     Philippe Bracke, Edward W. Pinchbeck, James Wyatt. A copy of this paper is available from the LSE press office.


Related Links:
LSE News - ‘People may be overpaying for lease extensions says LSE research'

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Edward Pinchbeck webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Leasehold homeowners are ‘overpaying to extend' leases

Homeowners living in leasehold properties are being asked to pay extortionate prices to extend the leases on their homes. That’s the conclusion of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), which has analysed data from 8,000 sales of leasehold properties showing how the sale price varied depending on how much time was left on the lease.

Related publications

‘The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates,’ Economic Journal. Philippe Bracke, Edward W. Pinchbeck, James Wyatt. A copy of this paper is available from the LSE press office.


Related Links:
Independent - Leasehold homeowners are ‘overpaying to extend' leases

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Edward Pinchbeck webpage


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

The consequences of the UK failing to reach a deal with the EU will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive”, according to a new report featuring LSE experts.

                   Related publications

‘The Cost of No Deal’  The UK in a Changing Europe http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cost-of-No-Deal-The-UK-in-a-Changing-Europe.pdf


Related Links:
LSE News - Report outlines costs of no Brexit deal

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

The six flavours of Brexit

Brexiteers rejected the Treasury’s projections for the cost of Brexit last year as “project fear”. But the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has remodelled the trade consequences…..

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: Brexit and the UK Economy, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson . May 2017 .Paper No' CEPEA040 http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
The Economist - The six flavours of Brexit

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 20/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog

Five important questions the UK government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

Article by Thomas Sampson: The most welcome aspect of the government’s policy paper on future customs arrangements is its acknowledgement of the desirability of a transition agreement after the UK leaves the EU. A transition deal will avoid the risks of a cliff-edge Brexit in March 2019 and give the two sides time to negotiate a new trade agreement. The paper suggests the transition agreement could involve a “continued close association with the EU Customs Union for a time-limited period … based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties”. In effect, it proposes that the UK remains in the Customs Union, although this is never explicitly stated.


Related Links:
LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog - Five important questions the UK government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

Five important questions the government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

The government’s recent paper on future customs arrangements sets out its objectives for how goods trade with the EU will be governed following Brexit. However, as Thomas Sampson outlines below, the proposal is incomplete and leaves unanswered five key questions about the UK’s position.


Related Links:
LSE British Politics and Policy blog - Five important questions the government's Brexit customs plan fails to answer

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 17/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

What next for US-Europe trade policy?

Article by Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

The economies of Europe and the United States are inextricably linked and in an ideal world, a number of factors motivate a trade deal such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU eBook, argues, however, that given the Brexit referendum in the UK and the election of Donald Trump as US president, as well as a number of other pre-existing complications, achieving such agreements will be highly contentious.

Related publications

What next for US-Europe trade policy?’, Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra. A chapter in the Vox eBook, Economics and policy in the Age of Trump, available to download here: http://voxeu.org/content/economics-and-policy-age-trump


Related Links:
Vox - What next for US-Europe trade policy?

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 16/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Harvard Business Review

A study of 16 countries shows that the most productive firms (and their employees) are pulling away from everyone else

Article by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo

The corporate landscape has become increasingly unequal, with the most productive firms thriving and the least productive ones failing to keep up. This matters not just for economic growth but also for inequality: Our research shows that as they grow apart in productivity, firms are also becoming more unequal in how much they pay workers.

Related publications

The great divergence(s) Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay, Chiara Criscuolo.

12 May 2017. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/the-great-divergence-s_953f3853-en


Related Links:
Harvard Business Review - A study of 16 countries shows that the most productive firms (and their employees) are pulling away from everyone else

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage


News Posted: 13/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Hellenic News

Business casts doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the U.K. on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the U.K. is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”


Related Links:
Hellenic News - Business casts doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 12/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Emirates-Business.ae

Businesses cast doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the UK on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the UK is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”


Related Links:
Emirates-Business.ae - Businesses cast doubt on UK-US post-Brexit trade deal

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg (USA)

Post-Brexit UK trade deal with Trump in easier said than done

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the U.K. on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the U.K. is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”

Also in: Las Cruces Sun-News (New Mexico) Post-Brexit UK trade deal with Trump in easier said than done


Related Links:
Bloomberg (USA) - Post-Brexit UK trade deal with Trump in easier said than done

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo!Finance

Post-Brexit U.K. trade deal with Trump is easier said than done

“There are bigger potential gains from doing a deal with Europe than with the U.K. on its own, just because Europe is a bigger market,” said Thomas Sampson, an economist at the Centre for Economic Performance. “The flip side of that would be that because the U.K. is just one country rather than a block of 27 countries it should have more flexibility.”


Related Links:
Yahoo!Finance - Post-Brexit U.K. trade deal with Trump is easier said than done

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE News

What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?

In the July episode of the #LSEIQ podcast we ask, ‘What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?’ One year on from the European Referendum, this demographic has been scrutinised for their role in the Leave vote. But were they really responsible for the 51.9 per cent vote to ‘Brexit’? If so, why did they vote that way? Helping to tackle the question are Dr Justin Gest co director of LSE’s Migration Studies Unit and Assistant Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University; Dr Lisa McKenzie, Fellow in LSE’s Department of Sociology, and; Dr Dennis Novy, an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and an Associate at the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE.

Related podcast

LSE IQ Episode 4: What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?

Contributors: Justin Gest, Lisa McKenzie and Dennis Novy

http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/LSEIQ/player.aspx?id=3849


Related Links:
LSE News - What can Brexit tell us about the white working class?

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 05/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

The growing inequality between firms

Globalisation, technological progress and a range of policies and institutions are driving ‘Great Divergences’ in wages and productivity, write Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo...

Related publications

The great divergence(s) Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay, Chiara Criscuolo.

12 May 2017. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/the-great-divergence-s_953f3853-en


Related Links:
LSE Business Review - The growing inequality between firms

CEP Trade

Giuseppe Berlingieri webpage


News Posted: 05/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a Changing Europe

EU referendum: one year on - UK economic policy

Article by Dr Swati Dhingra

What form of relationship to have with the EU after Brexit is the key economic policy issue facing the UK. This election was meant to give the prime minister a strong mandate for a “hard Brexit”. The Conservative Party and the DUP, whose support will be necessary to allow Theresa May to continue as prime minister, agree on the main elements of UK’s future economic relationship with the EU.

Read the full report here.


Related Links:
The UK in a Changing Europe - EU referendum: one year on - UK economic policy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 28/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a changing Europe (Kings College London)

EU referendum: one year on - trade and the single market

Article by Thomas Sampson

One year ago, the UK voted to leave the EU. However, voters did not choose what would come after Brexit.

Options for “life after Brexit”:  One option is to remain in the Single Market and preserve the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour with the EU. Another is to negotiate a bespoke trade agreement with the EU that keeps trade barriers as low as possible while ending labour mobility and giving the UK greater control over economic regulation. Finally, if no deal is reached, the UK and EU would trade under World Trade Organization (WTO) terms. This means the UK would have much the same economic relations with the EU as with non-EU countries such as the US or Japan. It would lead to tariffs on goods trade and reduced market access for service exporters. Each of these alternatives was endorsed by different factions of the Leave campaign prior to the referendum. Asking voters what they prefer does not resolve the conundrum: opinion polls show support for maintaining the benefits of Single Market membership. Yet polls also find support for taking back control by restricting immigration and removing the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) (though see the section on public opinion).


Related Links:
The UK in a changing Europe (Kings College London) - EU referendum: one year on - trade and the single market

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 28/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

The Bank of England is preparing for the absolute worst case Brexit scenario

Under May's argument, Britain would drop out of the EU, immediately reverting to unfavourable WTO trade terms, if the country's negotiators failed to get an agreement seen as having favourable terms for the UK. May has widely been criticised for this approach, with a report from the London School of Economics earlier in June saying that failure to strike a deal with the European Union on trade during Brexit talks will lower income per household by at least £1,890 a year.

Related publications

‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No.40, 

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - The Bank of England is preparing for the absolute worst case Brexit scenario

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 27/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

UOL Economia

Empresas enfrentam Brexit com ‘espirito de buldogue'/Companies face Brexit with ‘bulldog spirit'

"It's not a catastrophic madness, but the pound fell, investments decreased and inflation reached the highest rate in four years," said Swati Dhingra, economist at the Center for Economic Performance in London. "But I totally disagree with the idea that we err - the overwhelming consensus is that Brexit will be nesting in the long term."


Related Links:
UOL Economia - Empresas enfrentam Brexit com ‘espirito de buldogue'/Companies face Brexit with ‘bulldog spirit'

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg news

Brexit one year on: keep calm and hedge the pound

‘It’s not crazy catastrophic stuff, but the pound has fallen, investment is down, and inflation is up to a four-year high,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the Center for Economic Performance in London.  “But I totally disagree with the idea that we got it wrong – the overwhelming consensus is that Brexit will be damaging over the long term.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg news - Brexit one year on: keep calm and hedge the pound

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald

Choppy year could be calm before Brexit storm

Swati Dhingra, of the LSE, said: “There is near consensus among economists that the hard – or chaotic – form of Brexit…would hurt the UK economy. Although there was little immediate economic fallout from the Brexit vote, in the first quarter of this year UK economic growth was the slowest of any EU economy. … Mrs May insists “no deal is better than a bad deal” — but no deal could spell “chaos”, economists said. Thomas Sampson, of the London School of Economics (LSE), said: “Progress will require the UK to make concessions. Possible concessions include making payments to the EU budget, agreeing EU regulations will continue to apply in some industries, and guaranteeing immigration rights for EU citizens offered a job in the UK. “The UK has a weaker negotiating position than the EU, so even with these concessions it is unlikely to achieve all its objectives. “But refusing to compromise will guarantee failure. “Research estimates that leaving the EU without a deal could reduce UK income per capita by up to 10 per cent in the worst-case scenario.”

Related publications

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.1, February 2016

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.9, October 2016


Related Links:
The Herald - Choppy year could be calm before Brexit storm

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

South China Morning Post

On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

High-speed rail has triggered a wave of innovation , according to a London School of Economics and Political Science discussion paper by Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan, which describes a 20 per cent increase in patent applications after 2004, when high-speed technology from Europe began.

 

Related publications

'High-speed rail in China', Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp484.pdf


Related Links:
South China Morning Post - On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

CEP Trade


News Posted: 21/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald

Herald View: Holyrood's role means hard Brexit is dead and buried

But the greatest potential trouble is on Brexit, with the constitutional uncertainty growing and economists laying out this week just what a hard or chaotic Brexit could mean for the economy: the pound dropping even further, falling wages and more businesses leaving the UK. And yet the Government still appears to believe that no deal is an option even though the London School of Economics suggests that leaving the EU without one could reduce UK income per capita by up to 10 per cent.

Related publications

‘BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance’, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance Brexit Analysis Paper No.8, June 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit08_book.pdf


Related Links:
The Herald - Herald View: Holyrood's role means hard Brexit is dead and buried

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 21/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

South China Morning Post

On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

High-speed rail has triggered a wave of innovation , according to a London School of Economics and Political Science discussion paper by Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan, which describes a 20 per cent increase in patent applications after 2004, when high-speed technology from Europe began.

Related publications

'High-speed rail in China', Lin Yatang, Qin Yu and Xie Zhuan. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp484.pdf


Related Links:
South China Morning Post - On track: remote monitoring and artificial intelligence ensure more efficient railway systems along belt and road routes

CEP Trade


News Posted: 21/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Eurasia Review

Will Brexit lead to financial big bang for EU-27? - Analysis

Many commentators are throwing out numbers about the negative impact of Brexit on GDP growth and income across Europe. The Center for Economic Performance has concluded that every EU member will lose income after Brexit, but that the loss for the UK will be about twice the loss for the remaining 27 members combined.

Related publications

‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.2, March 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf


Related Links:
Eurasia Review - Will Brexit lead to financial big bang for EU-27? - Analysis

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 20/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Will Brexit Lead to a Financial Big Bang for the EU-27?

Many commentators are throwing out numbers about the negative impact of Brexit on GDP growth and income across Europe. The Center for Economic Performance has concluded that every EU member will lose income after Brexit, but that the loss for the UK will be about twice the loss for the remaining 27 members combined. However, a lot depends (as ever when economics is involved) on what data you look at, as well as on what deals and Euro-fudge the politicians come up with in the coming months.

Also in

Eurasiareview.com http://www.eurasiareview.com/20062017-will-brexit-lead-to-financial-big-bang-for-eu-27-analysis/

Related publications
'The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards',
Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2. March 2016.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 


Related Links:
Foreign Policy Research Institute - Will Brexit Lead to a Financial Big Bang for the EU-27?

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

John Van reenen webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP reports

‘EU referendum: One year on'. Report from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Political Studies Association, June 2017

‘EU referendum: One year on’. Report from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Political Studies Association, June 2017

Articles within the report:

‘Trade and the Single Market’, Thomas Sampson, EU referendum: One year on, pp.32-33

‘UK economic policy’, Swati Dhingra, EU referendum: One year on, pp.36-37


Related Links:
CEP reports - ‘EU referendum: One year on'. Report from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Political Studies Association, June 2017

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 16/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business 2 Community

Why Are Monopolies Bad? An Analysis of 6 Rise-and-Fall Companies

According to Professor Jeremiah Dittmar of the London School of Economics, writing in 2011, European cities which adopted the printing press experienced 60% higher economic growth than those which didn’t buy into the technology from 1450 to 1600. Ironically, in the context of this article, the printing press itself was monopolistic as the knowledge of materials was quasi-proprietary:

Related publications

‘Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of The Printing Press’, Jeremiah Dittmar, The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2011) 126 (3): 1133-1172

http://bit.ly/2rv5Ks0

 

Related article

‘Information technology and economic change: the impact of the printing press’, Jeremiah Dittmar, Vox article, 11 February 2011

http://voxeu.org/article/information-technology-and-economic-change-impact-printing-press


Related Links:
Business 2 Community - Why Are Monopolies Bad? An Analysis of 6 Rise-and-Fall Companies

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Jeremiah Dittmar webpage


News Posted: 14/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Express (India)

UK election result 2017: With Theresa May dependent on DUP, Brexit negotiations become more difficult

But this election turned out to be much more than Brexit. “Economics is as much about humanity as policy”. Professor Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, in her article Salvaging Brexit, had written about the “long years of economic neglect”, leading to the disaffection and disillusion of large swathes of the UK population. Successful Brexit negotiations or not, by the time of the vote, the sustained cuts in healthcare, education and other social sectors – in real terms – had assumed larger dimensions.

Related article

‘Salvaging Brexit: The right way to leave the EU’. Article by Swati Dhingra, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2016 issue

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/salvaging-brexit


Related Links:
Financial Express (India) - UK election result 2017: With Theresa May dependent on DUP, Brexit negotiations become more difficult

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 13/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yahoo! Finance

What does a hung parliament mean for Brexit and the economy?

Snippet: ...ana. “Without a strong mandate, Europe can ignore the UK’s demands. Even the UK’s threat to pull out of negotiations will now appear hollow and lacking the support of the British public.” But Dr Thomas Sampson, from the London School of Economics and an expert on Brexit…


Related Links:
Yahoo! Finance - What does a hung parliament mean for Brexit and the economy?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 09/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Frankfurter Rundschau (Germany)

Die schlechteste Variante

A year ago, in June 2016, the British voted on their country's EU membership. Economists and financial markets were in bright turmoil and warned of the consequences of a Brexit. Today, twelve months later, the markets are no longer afraid of the Brexit. They fear for him. Only two years are left to the EU and the United Kingdom to agree on the conditions of the withdrawal. And with each passing day there is a growing likelihood that the horror scenario will occur: there is no agreement, no deal--"for the British economy, this would be the worst of all results," warns the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP).

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam (Eds), CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

Related links

Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

                                         


Related Links:
Frankfurter Rundschau (Germany) - Die schlechteste Variante

CEP Education and Skills CEP Growth CEP Trade

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 08/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Market Inspector (online)

Would TTIP be a good deal for European citizens?

According to Dennis Novy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick: “TTIP has the potential to benefit millions of consumers. It goes far beyond an economic project. Its current timetable seems ambitious. Without considerable attention and support from the highest levels of government, it will be hard to lead TTIP to a successful conclusion any time soon”. 


Related Links:
Market Inspector (online) - Would TTIP be a good deal for European citizens?

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 07/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Manifesto economics

For the first time in years, UK voters have a real choice between economic models

The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has published a series of election analyses, looking at wages and living standards, health and social care, education and skills, and inequality between UK regions.

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

 

Related links

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

 


Related Links:
Financial Times - Manifesto economics

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The UK in a changing Europe

The manifestos uncovered: trade

Article by Swati Dhingra

Unlike some other countries – the US and France spring to mind – trade has not been a major issue in recent UK elections. This reflected both EU membership and a broad political consensus that, within the EU, the UK should argue for a relatively liberal approach. Brexit, however, will mean the most fundamental reorientation of UK trade policy in forty years, so it not surprising that it is much more prominent in manifestos for this election. The Liberal Democrats would stay in the single market and the customs union. Free movement of goods, services, capital and people would continue, and trade policy would still be set at the EU level. The loss of market access that would follow from leaving the EU would be minimized. Labour are less specific, to the point of inconsistency – they retain the option of being in the single market and the customs union, but also say that Brexit will mean an end to free movement, which is inconsistent with single market membership. The Conservatives’ plans are rather more detailed. Immigration controls are central to their Brexit plan, which means that we will leave the single market, while the aspiration to do new trade deals with countries outside the EU means leaving the customs union. Together, this means a “hard Brexit”. If there is no new deal with the EU after the two-year period – the hardest possible Brexit – the UK would revert to World Trade Organization rules.

Related publications

‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson,  CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No.40, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

‘The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards’,  CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco  Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards’,  Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and  John Van Reenen, CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016


Related Links:
The UK in a changing Europe - The manifestos uncovered: trade

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Socialist Worker

Migrant works say – ‘Don't blame us for low pay'

The London School of Economics’ (LSE) Centre for Economic Performance last year found that “the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers.”

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf


Related Links:
Socialist Worker - Migrant works say – ‘Don't blame us for low pay'

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Advertiser (Adelaide, Australia)

John Newton: Labour set to remain tarnished an divided while newly enthroned May will be mistress of all she surveys

Mrs May still seems to suggest that immigration should be kept under 100,000 a year while being just about the only person in the country who thinks that number should include students. Damage to university numbers is inevitable. Student admission rates are already lower this year. Her incapacity to deliver on such a KPI when Home Secretary adds the accusation of incompetence to that of pigheadedness. And is this a wise policy anyway? Recent research suggests that hitting a target of 100,000 will mean a fiscal deficit 30 per cent higher by 2066. Immigrants are regularly proven to add value and are not the burden on the state that many believe them to be. A recent report from the Centre for Economic Performance correlates the drop in immigrant numbers to falls, not rises, in living standards.

 

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf


Related Links:
The Advertiser (Adelaide, Australia) - John Newton: Labour set to remain tarnished an divided while newly enthroned May will be mistress of all she surveys

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economic Policy Digest – June 2017

Education and deprivation explain the Brexit vote better than immigration

Demography and education are a much better explanation of the ‘Leave’ vote in the June 2016 Brexit referendum than the decline in public services or recent immigration. These are the conclusions of Sascha O. Becker, Thiemo Fetzer and Dennis Novy in their paper Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis. … It might be assumed that the 48% of people who voted to remain in the EU last June, and many of the 52% who voted to Leave, would prefer a ‘soft Brexit’ instead.  In this case the UK would follow the example of a country like Norway, which is outside the EU but inside the Single Market. If they got their wish, this would halve the fall in income to about 1.3%. But whether Brexit is hard or soft, Britain will be worse off. The authors of the paper – Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, João Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen – from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, and MIT, found that for both extreme versions of Brexit, as well as many in between cases that they costed, reductions in budget payment to Brussels will be easily outweighed by the costs of reduced trade with the EU, which accounts for about half of all British trade.


Related Links:
Economic Policy Digest – June 2017 - Education and deprivation explain the Brexit vote better than immigration

Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Economics and policy in the age of Trump

This collection of 18 essays by leading economists highlights many of the most pressing domestic and international economic policy issues on the Trump docket.  Many chapters are sharply critical of the Trump administration’s new approach.

Part III: International Policy Reform: Trade policy and trade agreements

18 What next for US-Europe trade policy?

Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

 

Related publications : ‘What next for US-Europe trade policy?’, Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra, Economics and Policy in the Age of Trump, Chad Brown (Editor), e-book by VoxEU, June 2017


Related Links:
Vox - Economics and policy in the age of Trump

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

Sovereign wealth funds are shunning British investments after Brexit

The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said that returning to World Trade Organization rules would reduce the UK's trade with the EU by 40% over 10 years.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - Sovereign wealth funds are shunning British investments after Brexit

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Cinquantamila.it

Londra vota Brexit. Morbida o estrema saremo comunque più poveri

Brexit In fact is a trauma that breaks the vertical chain of production of the value that ties the United Kingdom to the EU, with consequences not apparent immediately. Quantifying these costs is therefore a difficult exercise, but we have tried S. Dhingra, H. Huang, G. Ottaviano, J.P. Pessoa, T. Sampson and J. Van Reenen in the article "the costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade Effects", forthcoming in the magazine. … The British voters who chose leave, contrary to appearances, seem to know that their problem is not immigration. The analysis of the vote at the last June referendum by S. Becker, T. Fetzer and D. Novy in the article "who voted for Brexit: a comprehensive district-level analysis" (also being published in the economic policy), confirms this conclusion.


Related Links:
Cinquantamila.it - Londra vota Brexit. Morbida o estrema saremo comunque più poveri

Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Dennis Novy webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Election uncertainties to be followed by many more

The election uncertainty will give way to new uncertainties. Two new reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics highlight some of the dangers. On immigration, the CEP concludes that cutting it significantly will result in a lowering of living standards for the UK-born population, with the extent of the fall depending on the extent of the drop in net migration. The May target of “tens of thousands” will leave us all poorer. The report, on the CEP website, is a good mythbuster. Areas of high EU immigration have not seen UK-born workers displaced or suffered from weaker wage growth. The route to reduced living standards is partly via the fact that migrant workers pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and use of public services. The CEP’s other report looks at something that really worries businesses — the prime minister’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” rhetoric. CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, using what they describe as a state-of-the-art trade model based on comprehensive data, say that leaving the EU without a deal would result in a 40% drop in exports to the EU over 10 years and a 3% fall in GDP per capita. Add in dynamic effects and the medium-term economic effects could be double those arising from the model, the authors say.


Related Links:
The Times - Election uncertainties to be followed by many more

Brexit and the UK Economy

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 04/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Chronicle

The North should become a ‘free trade zone' to create jobs and bring in cash, think tank says

The need to give the North a boost was highlighted by a new study by the Centre for Economic Performance, part of the London School of Economics, which said the Government’s Northern Powerhouse project had produced uneven results, with Manchester benefitting more than other parts of the North. Professor Henry Overman, co-author of the report, said: “The manifestos of the main parties the 2017 election campaign reflect the continuing urge that politicians feel to try to do something about the UK’s regional divide without any real understanding of what drives the differences in performance or what policies might be effective.”


Related Links:
Evening Chronicle - The North should become a ‘free trade zone' to create jobs and bring in cash, think tank says

The UK's Regional Divide: Can Policy Make a Difference

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Britain's election offers little respite for its woes

Most independent experts predict long-term harm as well. According to the most recent estimates from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, a hard Brexit would reduce GDP per head by 2.6% over ten years, while a softer Swiss- or Norwegian-style Brexit would cut it by 1.3%...

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/


Related Links:
The Economist - Britain's election offers little respite for its woes

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 03/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Brexit has already started to make UK citizens poorer

Leaving the European Union with no deal in place for future trading arrangements would be the worst-case Brexit scenario for the UK economy. What’s more, just because GDP growth has not declined since last year’s referendum, it would be wrong to think that Brexit is yet to have any economic effects: it has already lowered UK living standards by causing the value of the pound to decline, which has led to higher inflation and lower real wage growth. These are among the conclusions of a new report from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) authored by Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Brexit has already started to make UK citizens poorer

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 02/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

ITV News

Theresa May reveals risky migration target timescale

So the prime minister may have to choose between risking the economy (immigrants keep living standards up and the deficit down according to the London School of Economics) or missing her target.


Related Links:
ITV News - Theresa May reveals risky migration target timescale

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

True Viral News

Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

BREXIT has already started to make UK citizens poorer and more pain is likely in the months and years to come, a new study has warned. Although last year’s vote to quit the European Union has had “no obvious effect” on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound – down 13 per cent against the US dollar and nine per cent against the euro by the end of April – has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3 per cent to minus 0.5 per cent, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found.


Related Links:
True Viral News - Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Herald Scotland

Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

Although last year’s vote to quit the European Union has had “no obvious effect” on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound – down 13 per cent against the US dollar and nine per cent against the euro by the end of April – has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3 per cent to minus 0.5 per cent, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found….

Co-author Thomas Sampson said Labour and the Conservatives plans to “take back control” rather than making Brexit work for the UK economy would “inevitably” be bad for living standards…

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Herald Scotland - Brexit makes people poorer with more pain on the way, warns study

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

LSE: Failure to get a Brexit trade deal will cost every household at least £1,890 a year

A report by the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said that returning to World Trade Organization rules would reduce the UK's trade with the EU by 40% over 10 years…Report authors Swati Dinghra and Thomas Sampson write: "While it is a tautology that a sufficiently bad deal must be worse than no-deal, in practice the no-deal outcome, where the UK and EU trade under WTO terms, is the worst-case scenario for the UK economy. The economic costs of Brexit would be twice as large in the no-deal case than if the UK remains in the Single Market."

 


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - LSE: Failure to get a Brexit trade deal will cost every household at least £1,890 a year

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

AOL.UK

UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

Although last year's vote to quit the EU has had "no obvious effect" on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound - down 13% against the US dollar and 9% against the euro by the end of last month - has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5% to 2.7% and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3% to minus-0.5%, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found.


Related Links:
AOL.UK - UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

Brexit and the UK Economy

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mirror

Theresa May's 'no deal' Brexit would cost each family £1,890, experts warn

Although last year's vote to quit the EU has had "no obvious effect" on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound - down 13% against the US dollar and 9% against the euro by the end of last month - has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5% to 2.7% and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3% to minus-0.5%, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found.

Co-author Thomas Sampson said: "Prime Minister May's decision to leave the single market was not an inevitable consequence of the referendum and will increase the economic costs of Brexit.

Related publications

'Brexit and the UK Economy', Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson, CEP Election Analysis Paper No. 40. May 2017.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

 

 

 


Related Links:
Mirror - Theresa May's 'no deal' Brexit would cost each family £1,890, experts warn

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Germany's declining respect for the UK

Further reading

Brexit and the UK Economy There are many ways to leave and the referendum did not allow voters to choose between them — Brexit does not simply mean Brexit. (LSE Centre for Economic Performance)

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Financial Times - Germany's declining respect for the UK

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

Brexit Bulletin: The Ghost at the Debate

May’s insistence that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is wrong, according to a report by the Centre for Economic Performance….

“In practice the no-deal outcome, where the U.K. and EU trade under WTO terms, is the worst-case scenario for the U.K. economy,” CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson said in the report.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - Brexit Bulletin: The Ghost at the Debate

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

No Brexit Deal ‘Worst-Case Scenario' for U.K. Economy, CEP Says

According to the Centre for Economic Performance, leaving the European Union with no pact in place would have twice the negative economic impact as remaining in the single market. That’s at odds with Prime Minister Theresa May’s repeated assertion that “no deal is better than a bad deal.”

“While it is a tautology that a sufficiently bad deal must be worse than no deal, in practice the no-deal outcome, where the U.K. and EU trade under WTO terms, is the worst-case scenario for the U.K. economy,” CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson said in a report published Wednesday.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - No Brexit Deal ‘Worst-Case Scenario' for U.K. Economy, CEP Says

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Express

UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

Although last year’s vote to quit the EU has had “no obvious effect” on GDP growth, the collapse in the value of the pound – down 13% against the US dollar and 9% against the euro by the end of last month – has fuelled a surge in inflation from 0.5% to 2.7% and a fall in real wage growth from 1.3% to minus-0.5%, the report from the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance found…..

Co-author Thomas Sampson said:  ”Prime Minister May’s decision to leave the single market was not an inevitable consequence of the referendum and will increase the economic costs of Brexit.

Related publications

CEP Election Analysis: ‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson. May 2017 Paper No' CEPEA040: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf

CEP BREXIT Analysis: ‘The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. March 2016. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

CEP Election 2017 webpage: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
Evening Express - UK citizens already poorer as a result of Brexit, study finds

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Il Sole 24 Ore

Le bugie di Donald Trump sul commercio / Donald Trump's lies on business

Article by Gianmarco Ottaviano

…at the G7 in Taormina, an extraordinary thesis was presented to the international community. According to the new US presidency, from the liberalization of international trade, the US would not have obtained what they would have to pay.


Related Links:
Il Sole 24 Ore - Le bugie di Donald Trump sul commercio / Donald Trump's lies on business

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 28/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Conversation UK

Cut immigration and the UK's economic prospects will just get worse – here's why

Jonathan Wadsworth and colleagues at the London School of Economics showed convincingly that across UK local authorities from 2008-15, EU immigrants had no statistically significant impact on the real wages of UK-born workers. Neither did it affect the job prospects of low-skilled UK-born workers.

Related publications

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 ‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’ Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen. May 2016.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/


Related Links:
The Conversation UK - Cut immigration and the UK's economic prospects will just get worse – here's why

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Harpers

LWF Day One: The big Brexit debate

Breaking down the cloud of uncertainty brought about by Brexit into manageable bite-sized pieces was the objective of panelists at this afternoon’s London Wine Fair industry briefing. A panel of industry experts from political, economic, legal and business backgrounds framed the general “Brexit debate” hanging over the industry by looking at what can and can’t be predicted, and also by prioritising some of the concerns. One of the issues widely predicted to cause mass headaches following the referendum has been the effect of trade tariffs on producers exporting to the UK. But from an economics point of view, Dr Swati Dhingra from the London School of Economics argued that non-tariff barriers such as foreign investment will have the far bigger impact on GDP. “If we leave the single market and the EU, the impact on tariffs would be between 1% and 3% - probably around 1.5%. But non-tariff barriers, such as a lack of foreign investment, have the much bigger potential to contribute to a reduction of GDP.

Related links

Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=dhingra


Related Links:
Harpers - LWF Day One: The big Brexit debate

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 22/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

VOX

Great Divergences: The growing dispersion of wages and productivity in OECD countries

Article by Giuseppe Berlingieri, Patrick Blanchenay and Chiara Criscuolo

Some firms pay well while others don’t; and some are highly productive while many aren’t. This column presents new firm-level data on the increasing dispersion of wages and productivity in both the manufacturing and services sectors in 16 OECD countries. Wage inequalities are growing between firms, even those operating in the same sector – and they are linked to growing differences between high and low productivity firms. Both globalisation and technological progress (notably information and communications technologies) influence these outcomes – as do policies and institutions such as minimum wages, employment protection legislation, unions, and processes of wage-setting.

Related links

Giuseppe Berlingieri CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=berlingieri


Related Links:
VOX - Great Divergences: The growing dispersion of wages and productivity in OECD countries

CEP Trade


News Posted: 15/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Only economic study showing benefits of Brexit debunked as 'doubly misleading'

The assumptions of the Economists for Brexit group – now rebranded as Economists for Free Trade - were previously criticised as grossly unrealistic on other grounds, including ignoring the fact that countries tend to do more trade with countries that are geographically closer, by economic modellers from the London School of Economics (LSE).


Related Links:
Independent - Only economic study showing benefits of Brexit debunked as 'doubly misleading'

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/04/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Economists point finger of blame over Brexit forecasts

On Monday, Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics told the Royal Economic Society annual conference that most academic economists had predicted a 1-3 per cent fall in economic output by five years after Britain left the EU and a fall of anything from 2 to 8 per cent after 15 years.Short-term forecasts from the Treasury and private-sector economists had been wrong, she said, adding that 'those are the economists that have many different kinds of financial incentives and political constraints'. 


Related Links:
Financial Times - Economists point finger of blame over Brexit forecasts

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 10/04/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

War shaped my childhood – don’t let Brexit risk our peace

Article by Patrick Stewart.  A recent report on the likely impact of Brexit from the London School of Economics has found that all EU countries will lose income after Brexit. The overall GDP fall in the UK is estimated at between £26bn and £55bn, depending on the negotiated settlement. In the most pessimistic scenario, the cost of Brexit could be as high as £6,400 for each household.


Related Links:
Guardian - War shaped my childhood – don’t let Brexit risk our peace

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 19/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

US News

Brexit withdrawal pains loom over UK

Europe, not Britain, is seen as having the most leverage going into the talks. "The party with the most to lose has the weakest position," says Dennis Novy, a University of Warwick economist, "and that's the U.K." The EU is Britain's closest and largest trading partner. Forty-four percent of U.K. exports go to the EU, while only 8 to 17 percent of EU exports go to Britain. Novy says failing to reach a trade deal wouldn't completely quash U.K. markets for European goods and services anyway, just shrink them as rising prices dilute demand.


Related Links:
US News - Brexit withdrawal pains loom over UK

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 13/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider (Italy)

Brexit, l'appello della London School of Economics: 'Immigrati fondamentali per l'economia'/Brexit, the appeal of the London School of Economics: 'Immigrants are fundamental to the economy'

Brexit constringerà the United Kingdom to rethink all its economic policies: from the labour market to industrial policy, from immigration to foreign trade. A commitment is certainly not trivial for the Government by Theresa May that still waits for the green light from Parliament to invoke article 50 of the European treaties setting in motion the process that will lead Britain out of the borders of the European Union within the next two years. "For Britain, it is the hardest undertaking by the defeat of Nazism in World War II" admits election campaign manager Dominic Cummings, in support of Brexit. Of course, the outcome of the referendum has undermined even analysts and researchers engaged in studies in support of government policies. As in the case of the London School of economics that in 2013 has created the first "growth commission" a kind of white paper of the economy: "Brexit", so nobody imagined the result pushed the London School has rilancare a second Board for growth, "says Novella Bottini, a consultant for the London Institute.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Business Insider (Italy) - Brexit, l'appello della London School of Economics: 'Immigrati fondamentali per l'economia'/Brexit, the appeal of the London School of Economics: 'Immigrants are fundamental to the economy'

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 12/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Horticulture Week

Dutch TV news Javado and Alton Garden Centre Brexit report airs

Following Brexit, Dutch TV news has followed a consignment of orchids from Holland to Alton Garden Centre and visited last month's Garden Retail Summit.

Dutch TV channel NPO1 (equivalent to BBC1) followed the plant exports to the UK for themselves last week and visited the London School of Economics to get an insight into the impact of Brexit through Dutch/UK trade.  Nikhil Datta, a researcher at the London School of Economics, said the LSE has estimated that Brexit will have a negative effect of 0.75% on the Dutch economy.


Related Links:
Horticulture Week - Dutch TV news Javado and Alton Garden Centre Brexit report airs

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 09/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Republic Online

Specter of no Brexit deal haunts Britain's automakers

Swati Dhingra, an economics lecturer at the London School of Economics, estimated in a study prior to last year’s referendum that Brexit could reduce total U.K. car production by as much as 12 percent.

 

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here


Related Links:
Daily Republic Online - Specter of no Brexit deal haunts Britain's automakers

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 08/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

U.S. News and World Report

Dennis Novy gave an interview to the American news magazine U.S. News and World Report on 07 March 2017

The interview was about the negotiations on international trade between the UK and the EU that will follow once Article 50 has been triggered. In particular, the interview covered the strengths and weaknesses of the UK negotiating position on trade after Brexit, and how European partners might react to British demands.

https://www.usnews.com/ 


Related Links:
U.S. News and World Report - Dennis Novy gave an interview to the American news magazine U.S. News and World Report on 07 March 2017

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 07/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Telegraph

Call for statistics to measure quality of economic growth

National figures on economic growth fail to take into account of regional variations and ignore quality of life, such as the gap in life expectancy between Surrey and the north east of England, the Inclusive Growth Commission warned.

Local productivity, local incomes, the distribution of earnings, pay changes for the lowest paid and levels of regional economic inactivity could all form part of this new inclusive growth metric, said the ICG which is chaired by Stephanie Flanders, JP Morgan’s chief market strategist. The Commission also includes former Rolls-Royce chief executive Sir John Rose and London School of Economics professor Henry Overman.


Related Links:
The Daily Telegraph - Call for statistics to measure quality of economic growth

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Telegraph

How a rise in Britons being their own boss risks a borrowing crisis

Getting the balance right

A recent report by the LSE Growth Commission also warned that a world where everyone is their own boss could lead to less training, with consequences for UK living standards. 

"In the longer term, the gig economy may erode employers' incentives to invest in their workers' skills," it said.

"It is unlikely that short-term workers will receive extensive on-the-job training, and thus in the long run this may have an impact on the make-up of the skill set of the UK workforce."

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
The Telegraph - How a rise in Britons being their own boss risks a borrowing crisis

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 05/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Engagement/In politics

CEP and its research had a broad reach in Parliament during the month of February.

During the passage of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill in the Lords, research on the benefits from immigration at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) was mentioned.

Also, LSE research was picked up during debates on building more homes (Professor Cheshire)

pre-school education: teachers (Dr Jo Blanden, Professor Sandra McNally).

LSE has been particularly involved in the debate on Brexit through its submissions of written evidence in Parliament and academics appearing before select committees. LSE has responded to the Impact of Brexit on Higher Education and the Immigration inquiries.

Swati Dhingra and Professor Niamh Moloney gave their insights on UK Trade Options Beyond 2019

Professor Alan Manning and Philippe Legrain informed the Lords on Brexit and the Labour Market.

Related links

Community Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/Community/default.asp

 

 


Related Links:
CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Education and Skills CEP Trade

Paul Cheshire webpage

Jo Blanden webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Alan Manning webpage


News Posted: 04/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Buitenland.eenvandaag.nl (Dutch TV)

Wat betekent de Brexit voor de handel met Engeland?/ What does Brexit mean to trade with England?

England, one of our main trading partners is to get out of the EU. The British Prime Minister Theresa May this month officially advised the European Union of the British departure. Dutch entrepreneurs who do a lot of trade with England wait with bated breath the negotiations that will follow. And the question is whether, in particular, the EU wants to be the best deal out there.

What the consequences will be of Brexit for the Dutch and the English economy depends on the deal concluded between the European Union and the United Kingdom says Nikhil Datta, researcher at the London School of Economics. According to him, the damage can be limited if there actually is as little change as possible.


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 04/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Charleston Gazette-Mail (USA)

Steve White: Pipeline projects will create plenty of good jobs

The recent U.S. energy revolution, courtesy of high-tech advancements in hydraulic fracturing, has made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally, lowering costs for energy-intensive industries while increasing output, employment and exports.Those aren’t my conclusions. They come from the London School of Economics and Political Science. “For every two jobs created in direct relation to fracking, this indirect effect adds more than one additional job elsewhere in the economy,” the report says. In fact, manufacturing exports have increased about 10 percent, on average, since the energy boom began


Related Links:
Charleston Gazette-Mail (USA) - Steve White: Pipeline projects will create plenty of good jobs

Fracking: the boost to US manufacturing

Fracking: the boost to US manufacturing

CEP Trade

Frank Pisch webpage


News Posted: 03/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

LSE Growth Commission: invest more in people, not only buildings and machines

The LSE Growth Commission sets out a new blueprint for inclusive and sustainable growth that deals with the challenges facing the UK, old and new. Based on the latest research, analysis and evidence from leading practitioners and scholars, the Commission – drawn from leading business, policy-making and academic figures – outlines the top priorities in four key areas: jobs and skills; industrial strategy; openness and finance and growth.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review - LSE Growth Commission: invest more in people, not only buildings and machines

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 03/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg View

Specter of No Brexit Deal Haunts U.K. Automakers

Swati Dhingra, an economics lecturer at the London School of Economics, estimated in a study prior to last year's referendum that Brexit could reduce total U.K. car production by as much as 12 percent.

Related article

8 June 2016

The UK in a Changing Europe – King’s College London

Brexit and foreign investment: cars and cash

Article by Swati Dhingra

One of the key issues in the referendum campaign has been the extent to which a Brexit would affect the UK’s economy. While much of this discussion has focused on trade, the role of investments in the UK from other EU countries is also important. The UK is a major recipient of investment, with only the United States and China receiving more foreign direct investment (FDI) than the UK. And of this investment in the UK (which has an estimated stock value of over £1 trillion) about half has come from other EU countries.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-and-foreign-investment-cars-and-cash/


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Bloomberg View - Specter of No Brexit Deal Haunts U.K. Automakers

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

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News Posted: 03/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Carrier Management

Are fears of a Brexit exodus overblown

“Each business lobby is motivated — the worse you can make it sound at this point, the more likely your sector will get special treatment,” said Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. “I don’t know how analytically rigorous a lot of the numbers are. You want to take a lot of these numbers with a grain of salt.”

Related links

Thomas Sampson CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=sampson


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Carrier Management - Are fears of a Brexit exodus overblown

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Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Hard Brexit will ‘open Pandora's box' for UK businesses says CBI president

Economists from the London School of Economics have estimated that the WTO route would cause an almost 10 per cent hit to UK GDP by 2030.

Also in:

The i Paper

Failure to secure trade deal 'would open Pandora's Box'

(no link available)


Related Links:
Independent - Hard Brexit will ‘open Pandora's box' for UK businesses says CBI president

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Staff News

New report from LSE Growth Commission

Last Friday, the LSE Growth Commission released a new report setting out a blueprint for inclusive and sustainable growth in the UK, which deals with both old and new challenges.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
LSE Staff News - New report from LSE Growth Commission

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 02/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

The Brexit Bank Exodus Could Be More Like a Trickle

“Each business lobby is motivated -- the worse you can make it sound at this point, the more likely your sector will get special treatment,” said Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. “I don’t know how analytically rigorous a lot of the numbers are. You want to take a lot of these numbers with a grain of salt.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - The Brexit Bank Exodus Could Be More Like a Trickle

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 01/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Railway Technology

The importance of China's high-speed tech transfer policy

China is the world leader in the deployment of high-speed rail infrastructure but how much of this is because of the extensive technology transfer deals that were struck with foreign companies during the early days?

“There were ambitions to get everything done pretty quickly,” says Yatang Lin, a researcher from the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance. “Of course, there were political motives there. Therefore, the fastest and safest way was to use foreign technology.”


Related Links:
Railway Technology - The importance of China's high-speed tech transfer policy

High-speed rail in China

International Technology Transfer and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from the High-Speed Rail Sector in China

CEP Trade


News Posted: 01/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Telegraph

Britain is damning itself to a low wage, low productivity economy

As the London School of Economics’ “Growth Commission” noted in a recent update on the UK economy, growing self-employment is eroding the incentives for companies to invest in training and skills. I don’t want to demonise the so-called “gig economy”, which for many of those who work in it is a positive and liberating choice. It has also greatly contributed to Britain’s superior employment performance

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
The Daily Telegraph - Britain is damning itself to a low wage, low productivity economy

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 01/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Washington Post

Is the WTO one of Trump's ‘big quagmire deals'? here's what's at stake

Recent research by Paola Conconi, Maurizio Zanardi and their co-authors finds U.S. presidential elections tend to influence the timing of WTO dispute filings, especially those with economic interests in key electoral (“swing”) states. But if domestic politics drove the filing of those cases and winning them would mainly help a political opponent, incoming presidents may choose to drop them entirely and focus on their own priorities.

Related article

‘Suspiciously timed trade disputes: How politics influencese WTO enforcement’, Paola Conconi, David DeRemer, Georg Kirchsteiger, Lorenzo Trimarchi and Maurizio Zanardi, Vox Article, 16 June 2015

http://voxeu.org/article/politics-influences-wto-enforcement


Related Links:
The Washington Post - Is the WTO one of Trump's ‘big quagmire deals'? here's what's at stake

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage


News Posted: 28/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC 2

Newsnight [23:39]

Snippet: ...Although maybe they won't thank me for saying that. Tracey Brown is the Director of Sense and Science - Because Evidence Matters, Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the author of Black Swan and Swati Dhingra is an Economist at LSE. Nice to have all of... (from 28m10s).


Related Links:
BBC 2 - Newsnight [23:39]

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 27/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Irish Times

Theresa May's Nasty Party dons UKIP's Brexit clothes at a heavy price

Immigration has now been extensively studied: there is lots of excellent data that reveals robust conclusions over many different pieces of research. According to, for example, the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance, EU immigrants are more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than their UK-born counterparts.


Related Links:
The Irish Times - Theresa May's Nasty Party dons UKIP's Brexit clothes at a heavy price

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Times

Our nation of shoppers needs a new growth model

…"more coherent and comprehensive than anything the government has yet come up with" Article on the LSE Growth Commission Report.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
The Sunday Times - Our nation of shoppers needs a new growth model

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 26/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC III – video

What would the UK look like without immigrants?

On #OneDayWithoutUs people are encouraged to show how much immigrants contribute to the country.

So how much of a difference do immigrants make to the UK economy?

At1:12 mins CEP (LSE) research flashes up.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358

CEP Growth Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/growth/default.asp

CEP Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp


Related Links:
BBC III – video - What would the UK look like without immigrants?

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 24/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Brexit Bulletin: Team May hits back

Brexit is expected to spell the end of passporting, where firms seamlessly service the rest of the single market from their London hubs. That could herald a loss of more than 25 percent of the U.K.’s total financial services trade, a London School of Economics study said on Thursday. 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Bloomberg - Brexit Bulletin: Team May hits back

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Stephen Machin webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Philippe Aghion webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage


News Posted: 24/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

UK banks' loss of EU passport a ‘major threat', LSE study says

The U.K. government must ensure British financial-services companies don’t lose their ease of access to the European Union after Brexit as a “matter of urgency,” according to a report backed by high-profile British economists including former Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean. The study, compiled by the London School of Economics with input from business leaders, ex-policy makers and academics, says the U.K. needs to retain near-equivalent European Union passporting rights and warned that alternatives are “costly and time-consuming.”  It sets out a list of recommendations for Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration to bolster growth, including prioritizing free-trade deals with the U.S. and EU. It also encourages the government to boost skills, develop an industrial strategy, and increase competition in finance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/u-k-banks-loss-of-eu-passport-a-major-threat-lse-study-says

 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - UK banks' loss of EU passport a ‘major threat', LSE study says

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Channel 4

FactCheckQandA: Why isn't immigration falling more quickly?

Why has net migration continued to rise and successive government’s failed to hit their targets?

According to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), the majority of those who come from the EU, do so for work related reasons, whilst the majority of those who come from non-EU countries do so for study-related reasons. Both positively contribute to the UK economy with the CEP suggesting both groups have had no negative effect on jobs or wages. This is one of the main reasons the government has found it difficult to reduce immigration.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.

Related Links:

 

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358

 

 


Related Links:
Channel 4 - FactCheckQandA: Why isn't immigration falling more quickly?

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Public Finance

LSE growth commission sets out economic reform proposals

Britain’s tax laws are biased in favour of the self-employed and should be reformed to enable greater investment in people instead of buildings and machines, the LSE Growth Commission has said. This was one of the findings of a report released by the commission today on how the UK can achieve inclusive and sustainable growth after Brexit. In the study, authors identify four key priority areas: jobs and skills, industrial strategy, economic openness, and finance and growth. The commission consists of senior figures from business, politics and academia and was formed in 2013 to provide authoritative and evidence-based policy recommendations. UK Growth: A New Chapter was based on the input of senior policymakers, business people and academics, including two former chancellors, George Osborne and Alastair Darling.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.


Related Links:
Public Finance - LSE growth commission sets out economic reform proposals

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News online

Brexit Bulletin: What Can By-Elections Tell Us About Brexit?

Snippet: ... Due today: latest migration figures from the ONS, and a report on the economy from the LSE Growth Commission.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News online - Brexit Bulletin: What Can By-Elections Tell Us About Brexit?

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Anna Valero webpage

Richard Davies webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Philippe Aghion webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

House of Lords Hansard – www.parliament.uk

LSE research mentioned in Lords debate on the Article 50 Bill

During Lords debate on the Article 50 Bill, Lord McKenzie of Luton (Lab) mentioned LSE/CEP research:

 

"One of the most profound choices that the Government are seeking to make is to eschew membership of the single market and the customs union. They are prepared to sacrifice these at the altar of reducing immigration, notwithstanding research, most recently from the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, again showing the benefits to national income, taxes and the budget ​deficit from immigration, and notwithstanding a report from the think tank Global Future that suggests that the Government’s approach could mean a fall in current net levels of immigration of no more than 15%, and that might be reduced further by the terms of new free trade agreements, which typically come with a demand for liberalisation on free movement."

 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358


Related Links:
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 21/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera TV

CEP on TV/Radio

Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview to Al Jazeera. The topic was the confirmation of Steven Mnuchin as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. The interview covered the proposed U.S. tax reforms and how changes to financial regulation might affect the U.S. dollar and international trade. 


Related Links:
Al Jazeera TV - CEP on TV/Radio

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CNBC

Trump's trade war may have already begun

"The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade," said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. "You don't even know who you're going to hurt with these kind of things. You're probably going to destroy American jobs in the end."


Related Links:
CNBC - Trump's trade war may have already begun

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The New York Times

Trump's trade war may have already begun

“The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade,” said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. “You don’t even know who you’re going to hurt with these kind of things. You’re probably going to destroy American jobs in the end.”


Related Links:
The New York Times - Trump's trade war may have already begun

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Star Tribune Online

World awaits next move amid threat of trade war

Most experts have assumed the responsibilities of governance would temper Trump's trade posture. Given that nearly one-third of all U.S. trade is conducted with China and Mexico, a rupture risks severe economic damage. "The idea of trade wars these days, what politicians have in mind is really a 19th-century or early 20th-century conception of trade," said Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, a trade economist at the London School of Economics. "You don't even know who you're going to hurt with these kind of things. You're probably going to destroy American jobs in the end."


Related Links:
Star Tribune Online - World awaits next move amid threat of trade war

CEP Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage


News Posted: 31/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Does a firm hiring an experienced manager improve its performance?

Exporters to Angola that hired managers with specific types of experience were more likely to succeed, write Giordano Mion, Luca David Opromolla and Alessandro Sforza.

The enormous variation in firm performance has become a focus of empirical and theoretical interest throughout the social sciences, including economics. ... We believe the next question to be addressed in this literature is what happens when managers move from one firm to another. Does a firm hiring a good manager improve its performance? How much? If yes, is it due to the manager intrinsic capabilities or is it due to the knowledge and abilities the manager has learned in previous firms? What happens to the firm when the “good” manager leaves?


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Does a firm hiring an experienced manager improve its performance?

The Diffusion of Knowledge via Managers' Mobility

CEP Trade

Giordano Mion webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

YLE (Finland)

Taloudellinen epävarmuus kalvaa brexit-Britanniaa

Britain's economy made a decision after the brexit-lock braking. One-third of the companies that froze investment plans as a result of a decision. The collapse of the value of the pound sterling told the concern in the market. Light in the darkness is brought to the car manufacturer Nissan's fall made an extensive investment decision. The British Government has committed itself to the EU get rid of presented 7 000 jobs in the creative vitality after spending as evidence of Brexit in. However, the decision by the secretive Government boosted Nissanille. Researcher Swati Dhingra to keep secret the agreement concern.


Related Links:
YLE (Finland) - Taloudellinen epävarmuus kalvaa brexit-Britanniaa

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Challenges.fr (France)

2016: 'in success formidable pour l'industrie automobile britannique'

Thomas Sampson, Professor at the London School of Economics, warns that in addition to tariffs, British producers may suffer the impact of foreign barriers. "They would have to reorganize all of their supply chain, which could disrupt significantly the automotive industry" in the country, he warns.


Related Links:
Challenges.fr (France) - 2016: 'in success formidable pour l'industrie automobile britannique'

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

ABS/CBN News

Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British carmakers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs. "Inside the customs union cross-border supply networks can flourish, but if trade in car parts faces tariffs, rules-of-origin restrictions and other border barriers, then producers will need to reorganize their supply chain, potentially causing substantial disruption to trade in the car industry," he told AFP.


Related Links:
ABS/CBN News - Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Le Point.fr

En renouveau, l'industrie automobile britannique a la croisee des Chemins du Brexit

Thomas Sampson, Professor at the London School of Economics, warns that in addition to tariffs, British producers may suffer the impact of foreign barriers. "They would have to reorganize all of their supply chain, which could disrupt significantly the automotive industry" in the country, he warns.


Related Links:
Le Point.fr - En renouveau, l'industrie automobile britannique a la croisee des Chemins du Brexit

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

France 24

Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Last week Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed Brexit would see Britain leave the European single market, creating a stumbling block for the car industry which relies on trading vehicles and loose parts without paying duties. Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British carmakers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs.


Related Links:
France 24 - Could Brexit put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business World

Could 'Brexit' put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics, said British car makers could suffer further disruption beyond tariffs. “Inside the customs union cross-border supply networks can flourish, but if trade in car parts faces tariffs, rules-of-origin restrictions and other border barriers, then producers will need to reorganize their supply chain, potentially causing substantial disruption to trade in the car industry,” he told AFP.


Related Links:
Business World - Could 'Brexit' put the brakes on Britain's car industry?

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Deutsche Welle TV (DW-TV) online

Theresa May 'needs free trade deal' with Donald Trump to prove that Brexit works

DW spoke to economist Thomas Sampson from the London School of Economics ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May's visit to the White House. She is the first world leader to meet the new US President Donald Trump.

DW spoke to economist Thomas Sampson from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, an expert in international trade relations.

DW: Thomas Sampson, can Theresa May expect to reach any substantial agreement?

Thomas Sampson: She's hoping for an agreement to start talking. Until the UK actually leaves the EU, it can't make trade deals with other countries anyway. There are limits on what can be agreed. What May wants is to come back and say to the British people: We don't have a deal yet, but Trump is open to talk about a free trade agreement once we've left the EU. That's her goal.


Related Links:
Deutsche Welle TV (DW-TV) online - Theresa May 'needs free trade deal' with Donald Trump to prove that Brexit works

CEP Trade


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Scotland

Good morning Scotland

Dennis Novy gave a live radio interview [8.35-8.40am] on Donald Trump and his withdrawal from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP, the trade deal previously negotiated by Barack Obama with Asian/Australian partner countries). How does the withdrawal from TPP affect global trade policy and the chances of a British trade with the U.S.?

[Listen about 2:37:00 in.]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Scotland - Good morning Scotland

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 24/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Fortune

Why attacking free trade is great politics and bad economics

It has long been known that America’s Senate is less protectionist (i.e., more likely to favor trade deals) than the House. The usual explanation was that senators, representing larger territories, took a broader view.

But Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi discovered that only certain U.S. senators were less protectionist. Which senators? Precisely those basking in the relative comfort of the first four years of their terms. 

Related publications

'Policymakers' horizon and trade reforms: the protectionist effect of elections', Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi, Journal of International Economics, Vol 94, 2014.

 

 


Related Links:
Fortune - Why attacking free trade is great politics and bad economics

CEP Trade

Paola Conconi webpage


News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

T13.cl

Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

"Trade agreements are based on have something to give to receive something in return. "Nobody is doing charity here", explains Swati Dhingra, academic at the center of economic performance at the LSE.


Related Links:
T13.cl - Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 20/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Mundo

Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

"Trade agreements are based on have something to give to receive something in return. No one is making charity here", explains Swati Dhingra, academic center of economic behaviour of the LSE.

Related Links:
BBC Mundo - Brexit: 5 obstaculos que enfrenta el plan de Reino Unido para salirse de la Union Europea

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Asia

BBC Asian Network

Swati Dhinghra commenting on free trade and Brexit.

[Time: 08:00:24]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Asia - BBC Asian Network

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

The Today Programme

0750 Swati Dhingra interviewed.

After the UK gives up full membership of the EU's customs union exporters' goods could be facing checks and delays at Britain's border.


Related Links:
BBC Radio 4 - The Today Programme

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 19/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC 2

Newsnight

Swati Dhingra interviewed.  Speaking about Brexit and free trade.


Related Links:
BBC 2 - Newsnight

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Canary

At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

May’s speech suggests the UK is on course to aim for a bilateral agreement. Currently, countries like Switzerland pay around 40% as much as the UK’s contribution for EU membership for access on those terms, according to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). And that does not include free trade in services.


Related Links:
The Canary - At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Theresa May's Brexit speech leaves small firms in the dark

Article by Swati Dhingra

No access to EU’s single market and replacement deals potentially decades away heightens uncertainty for UK businesses.

Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday was the government’s first informative announcement on what the UK will look like after Brexit. A customs union with the EU has been ruled out so the UK can negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU. This hard Brexit would mean that, after we leave, the UK will trade with the EU and the rest of the world under World Trade Organisation rules, until it has negotiated its new trade deals. That is unless we make an interim agreement with the EU before we leave, which would also need to be approved by the WTO. However, we still could not make trade agreements with countries outside the EU before Brexit without the EU’s approval. The EU continues to be our biggest trade and investment partner. Exiting the single market without any other trade deal with the EU in place would mean a 5% cost disadvantage for UK manufacturers, who would face import taxes in the EU.


Related Links:
Guardian - Theresa May's Brexit speech leaves small firms in the dark

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sputnik News

Brexit: the 'economic cost' of Sterling's surge in value after UK PM's speech

"Currency markets are always volatile and can be affected by political and economic views," Dr. Thomas Sampson, associate professor at the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics told Sputnik.


Related Links:
Sputnik News - Brexit: the 'economic cost' of Sterling's surge in value after UK PM's speech

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

“There’s absolutely no controversy about gravity models,” said Swati Dhingra, assistant professor at the London School of Economics, also pointing out that gravity models are the subject of the second chapter of the new handbook of international economics. Thomas Sampson, also an assistant professor at the LSE, added that the Cambridge team’s own analysis was itself methodologically flawed.


Related Links:
Independent - Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 10/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Mundo (Spain)

Trump, Brexit, eleccciones europeas y otros enigmas de la economía para 2017

El comercio mundial patas arriba

Swati Dhingra, especialista de comercio de la London School of Economics, pone el acento en otro peligro.

"Lo más grave sería una guerra comercial de Estados Unidos con China en caso de que imponga aranceles y que China apele ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio", le dijo Dhigra al dominical británico The Observer.

More serious would be a commercial war between United States with China should impose tariffs and that Chinese appeal before the Organization World of the trade", said Dhingra to the British Sunday paper ‘The Observer’.

Also in:  Hispantv.com ¿Cuáles son los enigmas principales de la economía para 2017?/What are the major mysteries of the economy for 2017?

 


Related Links:
BBC Mundo (Spain) - Trump, Brexit, eleccciones europeas y otros enigmas de la economía para 2017

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg

Brexit and politics loom over UK after tumultuous 2016

“The more likely a hard Brexit becomes, the bigger I think the business response will be in terms of reducing investment and firms relocating activity out of the U.K.,” said Thomas Sampson, a professor at the London School of Economics. “It’ll be a slower effect gradually emerging over time rather than anything dramatic.”


Related Links:
Bloomberg - Brexit and politics loom over UK after tumultuous 2016

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 22/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Fracking has made US manufacturing more competitive

It has lowered costs for energy-intensive industries, boosting output, employment and exports, write Rabah Arezki, Thiemo Fetzer and Frank Pisch

… Our results suggest that the cost advantage due to the shale gas boom may have helped the US economy recover significantly faster than it would otherwise have done after the financial crisis of 2007/08.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Fracking has made US manufacturing more competitive

Fracking: the boost to US manufacturing

On the Comparative advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution

CEP Trade

Frank Pisch webpage


News Posted: 16/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE South Asia blog

Demonetisation is not the way to tackle corruption

Drawing on India’s previous experiences of demonetisation and contemporary data, Swati Dhingra and Amartya Menon argue the benefits seem few and far between. They write that if the government is serious about tackling corruption, it should prioritise taxing the super-rich and changing the tax system to minimise arbitrary action by corrupt tax officials.


Related Links:
LSE South Asia blog - Demonetisation is not the way to tackle corruption

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 30/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio Scotland

Newsdrive

Dennis Novy was interviewed by BBC Radio Scotland on 22 November 2016 about Donald Trump's policy stance towards the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), a proposed trade deal between the United States and various Pacific partner countries. Trump announced he would withdraw from TPP on day one of his presidency.

[Around 4:05pm]


Related Links:
BBC Radio Scotland - Newsdrive

TTIP: is free trade coming to the North Atlantic?

CEP Trade

Dennis Novy webpage


News Posted: 22/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

SNP Helensburgh

HARD BREXIT: 'the elephant in the room' at autumn statement

HUGE THREAT TO ECONOMY TO OVERSHADOW TORY BUDGET

The Scottish National Party has said that the threat of a hard Brexit will be the ‘elephant in the room’ at the Autumn Statement.

“The Treasury have carried out an assessment and its conclusions make for pretty grim reading.  “Tax receipts down between £38 and £66 billion a year after 15 years and GDP down as much as 9.5% if the UK reverts to WTO rules.  “The impact on productivity is as bad. The LSE (Centre for Economic Performance) suggest reduced trade will reduce productivity amounting to between 6.3% and 9.5% of GDP. That is the equivalent of up to £6,400 per household


Related Links:
SNP Helensburgh - HARD BREXIT: 'the elephant in the room' at autumn statement

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Sunday Herald (Scotland)

'Tory austerity crippled the economy, and Brexit is going to ruin it - yet Theresa May still has no plan'

The impact on productivity is as bad. The LSE (Centre for Economic Performance) suggests reduced trade will reduce productivity amounting to between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent of GDP.

This article was published online by the Sunday Herald (Scotland) on November 20, 2016

Link to article here

 


Related Links:
Sunday Herald (Scotland) - 'Tory austerity crippled the economy, and Brexit is going to ruin it - yet Theresa May still has no plan'

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage


News Posted: 20/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

CKWX News (Vancouver, Canada)

News 1130

Dr Swati Dhingra interviewed, talking about the potential international implications of a Trump White House as well as initial reactions from (Brexit) UK.

The interview was broadcast by CKWX News on the News 1130 programme on November 16, 2016
[No link available.]


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 16/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera

Inside story

Dr Swati Dhingra joined the discussion programme.  The topic was the demonitization of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes in India.

The interview was broadcast by Al Jazeera television on November 15, 2016
Link to broadcast
here


Related Links:
Al Jazeera - Inside story

CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 15/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Evening news

Dr Swati Dhingra on BBC News (19:35) commenting on PM Theresa May's speech on remaking globalization.

[No link available.]


Related Links:
CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 14/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

FXStreet

What will Brexit do to Britain's growth rate?

We have gone back to the post-Brexit growth forecasts made earlier this year by six organisations – the NIESR, the Treasury, the OECD, the London School of Economics, the Confederation for British Industry and Open Europe – in the run up to the referendum. Their methodologies and assumptions varied enormously, as did their results.

This article was published online by FXStreet on November 7, 2016.
Link to article here


Related Links:
FXStreet - What will Brexit do to Britain's growth rate?

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Holger Breinlich webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 07/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The meaning of Brexit is yet to become clear. But if Brexit means leaving the customs union of the European Union, Thomas Sampson looks at what it might meant for the UK to pursue its own trade policy for the first time since joining the EU in 1973.
What strategy should the UK adopt to secure its objectives in future trade negotiations? A successful strategy must be grounded in a clear understanding of why countries negotiate trade agreements and how negotiations are conducted.

This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on October 26, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations, Thomas Sampson. CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No. 9, October 2016
Link to CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 26/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Affairs Magazine

Salvaging Brexit

The right way to leave the EU
Article by Swati Dhingra
On June 30, a week after the British public voted to leave the EU, Theresa May gave a speech launching her candidacy for prime minister in which she declared, ''Brexit means Brexit''. Her message was straightforward: even though she herself had supported remaining in the EU, she would not hesitate to implement the will of the voters. Yet months after assuming office, May has yet to answer crucial questions about what a British exit, or Brexit, would mean for trade, immigration, and financial services. It is still not at all obvious what Brexit will actually look like. That's because the referendum has confronted the government with two distinct but related problems: how to leave the EU as painlessly as possible and how to reverse the years of economic neglect that have divided the country. Solving each will require hard choices, and whatever the politicians decide, some of their supporters will feel let down. With this in mind, they should prioritize prosperity over politics and defy radicals on both sides of the debate.

This article was published online in the November/December 2016 Foreign Affairs Magazine on October 21, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 21/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Herald Scotland

Panic! We're led by a Dad's Army of Brexiter buffoons

It's beginning to dawn on Brexit voters that leaving the EU will be a disaster for working people. Inflation is back as a direct result of the 18 per cent devaluation of the pound since June 23. The forecast for price rises next year is three to four per cent, which doesn't sound like much but most of this is going to be on essentials such as food, clothing, energy and transport, which will disproportionately hit those on already tight family budgets. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported yesterday that the UK Cabinet has been presented with three independent reports (from the Treasury, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the London School of Economics) forecasting an average loss of 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2030. That is equivalent to a major economic recession spread over 15 years. We are talking about losing hundreds of billions of pounds in economic output if Britain is forced out of the EU customs union, the destination of half of Britain's exports. We know who will pay the price of the public spending cuts that will ride on the back of this fall in national wealth. Brexit ministers pooh-pooh this as pessimism and negativity from Bremoaners and Eurowhingers. But they've demonstrably failed to come up with any alternative forecasts, or indeed any coherent plan for dealing with the consequences of isolation. Intoxicated by their referendum victory, Brexiters seem to be more interested in fantasising about new Royal Yachts and inspecting the teeth of migrant children.

This article was published online by The Herald Scotland on October 20, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 20/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

International Business Times

Latest twists as the Cabinet clashes over Brexit, Single Markets and customs unions

Prime Minister Theresa May is in Brussels for her first EU summit as UK leader, in the same week as cabinet ministers were presented with a paper warning that Britain pulling out of the EU customs union could lead to a 4.5% fall in GDP by 2030. The paper presented to ministers - a mixture of studies by the Treasury, the think tank NIESR and the Centre for Economic Performance and London School of Economics - also said ports such as Dover and Holyhead, which handle a lot of road freight, could become log-jammed if customs checks on vehicles transporting goods were introduced.

This article was published online by the International Business Times on October 20, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 20/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

RT UK

Cuts caused Brexit

Study says Brexit avoidable if Cameron had cut austerity.
Interview with Dennis Novy

The interview was broadcast by RT UK on October 19, 2016
Link to interview here [0:47 seconds]

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

City A.M.

Leaked government documents reveal £75bn cost of hard Brexit

The calculations, sent to May's close-knit team of Brexit advisers, which includes Hammond, David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson, claim the UK economy would be 4.5 percent smaller by 2030 if it leaves the Customs Union as part of any Brexit deal.
... the claims which are arrived at by taking the average assessment obtained from the controversial work undertaken by the Treasury before the vote, along with pre-23 June studies from the NIESR and the London School of Economics, werer dismissed by several experts.

This article was published online by City A.M. on October 19, 2016,br> Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Philip Hammond to be pressed on risks of UK leaving EU customs union

Chancellor to appear before Treasury select committee after Whitehall estimates show economy could shrink by 4.5%
Trade flows and foreign investment would also be hit hard by leaving the customs union, according to figures calculated for the Guardian on the same basis as those prepared by civil servants for the government's Brexit committee. The pro-EU thinktank Open Britain used the same studies - by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, the Treasury and the London School of Economics - to suggest trade could decline by almost 12% and foreign investment by 10%, or more than £4bn, if Britain left the customs union.

This article was published by The Guardian on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: Theresa May warned Britain could lose 4.5% of its GDP if it leaves EU customs union

Cabinet ministers receive stark economic warnings against adopting a 'Norway-style' model
The UK could suffer a fall in GDP of 4.5% by 2030 if it leaves the EU customs union. Cabinet ministers were given stark warnings from multiple sources of the effect of adopting a Norway-style model, in a paper that was circulated at a meeting of Theresa May's Brexit cabinet committee, according to the Guardian. Studies by the Treasury, think tank NIESR and London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, made pre-Brexit predictions of the impact of the UK remaining in the single market but leaving the customs union.

This article was published by The Independent on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Daily Mail

Ministers do battle over whether Britain should stay in the European customs union amid warnings quitting could mean a 4.5% hit to economy

Ministers are at loggerheads over whether to quit the European customs union amid warnings it could mean a 4.5 per cent hit to GDP.
Papers circulated at a meeting of the Brexit Cabinet committee apparently suggested that leaving could clog up trade through Britain's ports.
The research, by the Treasury, the thinktank NIESR, the Centre for Economic Performance and London School of Economics focus on a Norway-style model where the UK exits the single market but stays inside the customs union.

This article was published by The Daily Mail on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Britain, these are the five realistic choices for Brexit - take your pick

The Economists for Brexit group claim Brexit 5 would deliver a UK growth boom by 2020. But economists at the London School of Economics say this is ideologically driven pseudoscience and that unilateral free trade would, in fact, reduce UK GDP by between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent by 2030, equivalent to between £4,200 and £6,300 per household.

This article was published by The Independent on October 19, 2016
Link to article here

Related Publications
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

RT TV

Russia Today

Dennis Novy interviewed live around 8.15pm. The topic analysing the Brexit referendum that was held in June 2016. The interview was about how the Brexit vote outcomes across voting areas in the UK were linked to immigration and fiscal cuts.

The broadcast was shown on RT TV - Russia Today on October 18, 2016
Link to broadcast here

Related publications
Who Voted for Brexit ? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis, Becker, S. O., T. Fetzer, and D. Novy, CAGE Working Paper 305, October 2016

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Share Radio

Belgium puts EU-Canada trade deal in flux

EU trade ministers have had Belgium on their minds today - but rather than tucking into chocolate and waffles they've been dealing with the more unappetizing problem of a regional Belgian parliament that's blocking their attempts to cut a trade deal with Canada. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - or CETA - is the EU's biggest trade deal yet, with many Brexiteers eager to use it as a model for their own post-Brexit deal. But without Belgium on-board, CETA is stalled.
Share Radio's Juliette Foster was joined on the phone by Dennis Novy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and Associate of the Centre for Economic Performance, to discuss the future of CETA.

This interview was broadcast by Share Radio on October 18, 2016
Link to the broadcast here

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Migration Matters

Do migrants take away jobs?

Part 2/6 from six impossible ideas (after Brexit)
Many people think that migrants take jobs away from citizens, reduce wages or both. But you may also have heard the argument that immigrants benefit the economy because they take risks and start businesses. So, who's right?
We took this question to Alan Manning, Professor of Economics at LSE. In three short videos, Alan explains how migration affects your job prospects, presents the data from the UK and the world, and gives insights on managing migration in light of this evidence.

The episode of Migration Matters was posted on October 17, 2016
Link to the article and films here

Related publications
Recommended reading: Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2015 Election Analysis Series, Paper No.19, February 2015

Related links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
Alan Manning CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 17/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Playing it safe may mean giving Brexit Britain a very wide berth

Foreign direct investment is also much more economically potent than the domestic variety. It brings with it new technological and managerial knowhow that can dramatically boost productivity, according to London School of Economics research.

This article was published in The Times on October 17, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03, April 2016
Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03
See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 17/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

WallStreetcn.com (China)

'The news quiz' United Kingdom 'hard back in Europe,' you need to know

CEP research article previously published by Vox referenced in article published in PRC:
[8]Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson: UK-EU relations after Brexit: What is best for the UK economy?

This article was published online by WallStreetcn.com (China) on October 16, 2016
Link to article here

Related article
06 August 2016
Vox
UK-EU relations after Brexit: what is best for the UK economy?

Related publications
Dhingra, S. and T. Sampson (2016), Life After Brexit, CEP Brexit Analysis 01, February 2016
Dhingra, S., H. Huang, G. Ottaviano, J.P. Pessoa, T. Sampson and J. Van Reenen (2016a), The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects, Technical Paper, London: CEP
Dhingra, S., G. Ottaviano, T. Sampson and J. Van Reenen (2016b), The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment in the UK, CEP Brexit Analysis 03, April 2016
Dhingra, S., G. Ottaviano, J. Van Reenen and J. Wadsworth (2016c), Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, CEP Brexit Analysis 05, May 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 16/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: UK faces £350m-a-week ‘divorce bill' as result of leaving the EU

Economist Thomas Sampson told The Independent: ''It's important to remember that the exit bill would be a one-off payment and in the longer run it is likely to be dwarfed by the broader economic costs resulting from reduced integration with EU markets, particularly if the government pursues a hard Brexit.''

This article was published by The Independent on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: UK faces £350m-a-week ‘divorce bill' as result of leaving the EU

Economist Thomas Sampson told The Independent: ''It's important to remember that the exit bill would be a one-off payment and in the longer run it is likely to be dwarfed by the broader economic costs resulting from reduced integration with EU markets, particularly if the government pursues a hard Brexit.''

This article was published by The Independent on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

iNews

The politics behind pound sterling's volatile week

The pound has lost nearly 18 per cent of its value against the dollar since Britain voted Brexit, two per cent more than during the 2008 financial crash. On Thursday it reached its lowest point for 168 years. ''Movements in sterling in the past week have made it clear that news which increases the probability of a 'hard Brexit' reduces the value of the pound,'' Dr Thomas Sampson, an economics lecturer at the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE, told i. ''This reflects concerns that a 'hard Brexit' will increase the costs of trading with the EU and reduce the UK's output and living standards.''

This article was published by iNews on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

iNews

The politics behind pound sterling's volatile week

The pound has lost nearly 18 per cent of its value against the dollar since Britain voted Brexit, two per cent more than during the 2008 financial crash. On Thursday it reached its lowest point for 168 years. ''Movements in sterling in the past week have made it clear that news which increases the probability of a 'hard Brexit' reduces the value of the pound,'' Dr Thomas Sampson, an economics lecturer at the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE, told i. ''This reflects concerns that a 'hard Brexit' will increase the costs of trading with the EU and reduce the UK's output and living standards.''

This article was published by iNews on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

China's highly successful demand for technology transfer in high-speed trains

The rate of growth in technological innovations in China has increased significantly in the past two decades (see Figure 1). What's more, it is widely believed that the ability to learn from foreign technology and chase the global technological frontier relatively quickly has been a key contributor to China's growth miracle (Van Reenen and Yueh, 2012). The Chinese government has actively pursued what it calls a 'market for technology' policy: demanding that in return for having market access, foreign multinationals should develop technology cooperation with local firms.
Our research explores the extent to which international technology transfer spurs domestic innovation. We focus on the best example of the market for technology policy: the introduction of state-of-the-art technology into China's high-speed railways (HSR) during the massive expansion of its HSR system in recent years.

This article was posted online by the LSE Business Review blog on October 13, 2016
Link to the article here

Related publications
High-speed rail in China, Yatang Lin, Yu Qin and Zhuan Xie. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016
International Technology Transfer and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from the High-Speed Rail Sector in China, Yatang Lin, Yu Qin and Zhuan Zie, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1393, December 2015

Related links
Yatang Lin webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 13/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Al Jazeera TV

News

Dennis Novy interviewed. The topic was the leaked Brexit analysis from the Treasury and the economic implications of Brexit, in particular for international trade.

This interview was broadcast by Al Jazeera Television on October 11, 2016
Live link no longer available.

Related links
Dennis Novy webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Dennis Novy CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 11/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Three Counties Radio

Jasmeen Khan

Caller mentions research by the Centre for Economic Performance at around 01:11:05
Caller: ... not in many cases a cynical attempt on the part of employers to simply cheat workers by paying them the lowest wages that they can. It's a competitive market that they are operating in and unless they are able to manage their costs then they go out of business.
Interviewer: ... language around the EU was people that felt workers from outside the country were taking jobs that they had a right to.
Caller: There is no evidence of that really.
Interviewer: you can't deny the strength of the sentiment
Caller: ... it's a great shame that that was allowed to take root. I can't remember any really effective methods on the part of any politicians, certainly from the mainstream parties, to do that. The only - in the FT this week there was a long article that refuted all these allegations about low wages - about migrant workers driving down wages - the London School of Economics, their Economic Performance Centre [sic] looked at all of this and refuted all of those arguments as well but there was nobody amongst the politicians who took up these arguments and ... [caller lost]

The radio programme was broadcast on BBC Three Counties Radio's Yasmeen Khan talk show on October 9, 2016
Link to the broadcast here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 09/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Jeremy Corbyn's reaction to what Theresa May said about immigration was the last thing Labour needed

[Jeremy] Corbyn too is proposing a solution ''which would reduce numbers'', despite the fact in its 2015 General Election briefing, the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics observed: ''There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, wages, housing or the crowding out of public services.''

This article was published online by the Independent on October 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Proposals on lines of foreign workers cause outcry

Academic studies also find little link between migration and unemployment. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increases in EU immigration, these have not had the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008.

This article was published by the Financial Times on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Proposals on lists of foreign workers cause outcry

Economists see little to link migration and unemployment
There is little evidence that migrants have displaced British workers from jobs. Indeed, the employment rate for UK nationals is now 74.6 per cent, the highest since records began in 1997. Academic studies also find little link between migration and unemployment. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increases in EU immigration, these have not had the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008.

This article was published by The Financial Times on October 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Immigrants who 'consume' Britain's wealth are not welcome, Liam Fox says

A study by the London School of Economics published earlier this year found that EU immigration had no negative impact on British wages, jobs or public services. That research echoed the findings of countless other studies on the issue. The Government has yet to set out any particular vision for what immigration policy might look like after Brexit, though it has said it wants to end the status quo of freedom of movement.

This article was published by The Independent on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here