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News for Labour Markets

Press coverage involving Labour Markets staff or research is listed below.

LBC Radio

5:45:12 pm

Snippet: ...e Thank you very much Steve France's reporting for us there in Cardiff and serve loaded of the have been in touch about food prices someone texted me to say food has increased by 5% since June 20 16th seed chart to on a London School of Economics Europe blog post so ... Related article: ‘UK inflation has been rising fast since the Brexit vote’, Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin.  Post on LSE Business Review blog, November 4, 2017


Related Links:
LBC Radio - 5:45:12 pm

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Josh De lyon webpage


News Posted: 10/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Employee Benefits

Property deposit saving challenge impinging on millennial wealth

According to research from the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance the average weekly earnings between 2002 and 2008 rose at an average rate of 4% a year and prices at just 2%. However, growth in real wages has become stuck at around 2% since September 2014, with any growth occurring mainly being due to a decrease in price inflation, rather than any significant increases in nominal wage growth.


Related Links:
Employee Benefits - Property deposit saving challenge impinging on millennial wealth

The Return of Falling Real Wages

CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 08/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Scottish Energy News

CBI survey shows 98% of British energy firms want post-Brexit investment framework

Meanwhile, the risks of Scotland crashing out of the EU without the UK government securing a deal have been revealed in a damning report by the London School of Economics. Figures show that every single part of Scotland, and of the UK as a whole, will be adversely affected even in the event of a soft Brexit with single market membership maintained. The impact of dropping off a hard Brexit cliff edge would be significantly worse.


Related Links:
Scottish Energy News - CBI survey shows 98% of British energy firms want post-Brexit investment framework

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 08/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Record and Sunday Mail

Brexit could cost South Lanarkshire £1.3 billion

South Lanarkshire could lose out to the tune of £1.3 billion after Brexit according to statistics from the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Daily Record and Sunday Mail - Brexit could cost South Lanarkshire £1.3 billion

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Parliament

Live House of Commons

Ronnie Cowan, SNP, Inverclyde:  A report from the centre for cities and the Centre for economic performance and the London School of Economics said that all cities would schedule increasing costs, Edinburgh was ranked among the ten most affected cities, connecting HS2 to Scotland must be a priority.


Related Links:
BBC Parliament - Live House of Commons

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

RIETI

The rise of robots in the German labour market

For our analysis, we exploit the same dataset from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) that was used by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2016, 2017) and in the pioneering study by Graetz and Michaels (2017).


Related Links:
RIETI - The rise of robots in the German labour market

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Guy Michaels webpage

Georg Graetz webpage


News Posted: 06/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Dark web: The economics of online drugs markets

Article by V. Bhaskar, Robin Linacre and Stephen Machin

Like many other consumer transactions, the buying and selling of drugs are increasingly moving online. This is one very visible dimension of cybercrime – and it has been receiving growing attention from researchers as the online drugs markets have expanded rapidly.

A key feature of online drugs platforms is that they are located on the so-called ‘dark web’, which is accessible via the sophisticated technology of anonymisation software and encryption programs,
and buying and selling transactions
are conducted using the anonymous cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Our research so far has empirically studied these online drugs platforms by scraping large amounts of data from their websites and by focusing specifically on three economic questions.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Dark web: The economics of online drugs markets

Dark web: the economics of online drugs markets

The Economic Functioning of Online Drugs Markets

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 06/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE European Politics and Policy blog

The Brexit vote has caused a significant rise in UK prices, especially food

Article by Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

Since Britain’s EU referendum, UK inflation has risen faster than that of the Eurozone. Price rises have varied across sectors, but as Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra, and Stephen Machin show, the rise in the growth rate of food prices has been particularly pronounced. As a result, real wage growth in the UK has again turned negative. 

Related publications

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin. Article in CentrePiece Volume 22, Issue 3, Autumn 2017 [http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/CentrePiece_22_3.pdf]


Related Links:
LSE European Politics and Policy blog - The Brexit vote has caused a significant rise in UK prices, especially food

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Josh De lyon webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 06/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

UK inflation has been rising fast since the Brexit vote

Food prices are rising faster, and real wage growth has again turned negative, write Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin.... Overall, this research points to a significant rise in prices occurring after the EU referendum. Future work that builds on these initial findings will quantify the role of the devaluation of sterling by focusing closely on price changes for imported goods and services.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - UK inflation has been rising fast since the Brexit vote

In brief ... Brexit: the impact on prices

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Josh De lyon webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 04/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

MyJoyOnline

Are the robots coming for our jobs?

Some recent studies, however, such as a 2015 paper by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, found that at least in the area they studied – the impact of industrial robots – innovation is boosting pay for highly skilled workers while having a more negative impact on those with low to medium skills.


Related Links:
MyJoyOnline - Are the robots coming for our jobs?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Guy Michaels webpage

Georg Graetz webpage


News Posted: 04/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business & Financial Times online

Is the future jobless with technology: the robots are coming for our jobs

Some recent studies however, such as a 2015 paper by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, found that at least in the area they studied – the impact of industrial robots – innovation is boosting pay for highly skilled workers while having a more negative impact on those with low to medium skills.


Related Links:
Business & Financial Times online - Is the future jobless with technology: the robots are coming for our jobs

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 03/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Caba.org.uk

Happiness depends on mental health, not money, say economists

According to the Origins of Happiness report, eliminating mental health issues such as depression and anxiety would increase happiness by 20%, whereas eliminating poverty would increase happiness by only 5%. In other words, tackling mental health problems would be 4 times more effective at increasing happiness than reducing poverty. And the best part, say the researchers behind the report is that reducing mental illness doesn't have to cost a penny. Led by top economist Lord Richard Layard, the team of experts at the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance investigated the best ways of achieving happiness, reducing misery and promoting wellbeing.

Associated article

Vox

Origins of happiness: Evidence and policy implications

Andrew Clark, Sarah Fleche, Richard Layard, Nattavudh Powdthavee and George Ward


Related Links:
Caba.org.uk - Happiness depends on mental health, not money, say economists

CEP Wellbeing CEP Labour Markets

Andrew Clark webpage

Sarah Flèche webpage

Richard Layard webpage

Nattavudh Powdthavee webpage

George Ward webpage


News Posted: 02/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Money Pages

One in four Brits can’t afford to save

Rising inflation combined with flatlining wage growth means that households have seen incomes drop in real terms and are therefore beginning to feel the squeeze of higher prices. Worryingly, UK wages have dropped 5% in real terms since the financial crash, according to the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
The Money Pages - One in four Brits can’t afford to save

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 02/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Welt

Schon jetzt kostet der Brexit jeden Briten 682 Euro/Already, the Brexit costs every Briton 682 euros

Another study by the institute examining the regional implications of Brexit concludes that the south around London is likely to be hit particularly hard, as well as the region around Manchester and the south of Scotland. These are in each case regions that predominantly voted to remain in the EU. "But we see negative effects everywhere," said economist Swati Dhingra, one of the authors of the study.


Related Links:
Welt - Schon jetzt kostet der Brexit jeden Briten 682 Euro/Already, the Brexit costs every Briton 682 euros

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/11/2017      [Back to the Top]

Helensburgh Advertiser

New figures reveal likely Brexit impact on Argyll and Bute

Research by the London School of Economics forecasts that even in the event of a Brexit transition deal being struck, the Argyll and Bute economy will shrink by 2 per cent.


Related Links:
Helensburgh Advertiser - New figures reveal likely Brexit impact on Argyll and Bute

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Press and Journal (Aberdeen)

Argyll could be £350 million out of pocket as a result of Brexit

Scotland’s Brexit Secretary Mike Russell told the convention that a report out last week revealed a soft exit from the EU would leave the area £150million worse off, while a “hard, no deal Brexit,” would take the figure up to £350million. The report was published by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Press and Journal (Aberdeen) - Argyll could be £350 million out of pocket as a result of Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC TV Midlands

Sunday Politics

Mention of figures from the London School of Economics on the impact of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit on Birmingham’s economy.


Related Links:
BBC TV Midlands - Sunday Politics

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Straits Times

Messy divorce looms as Brexit talks go nowhere

The overall impression in other European capitals is that the British want to have their cake and eat it, by leaving the EU and yet retaining all its advantages, a demand which no EU government is prepared to concede. Squabbles inside Mrs May's ruling Conservative Party add to the confusion. A group of ardent anti-European former senior Cabinet ministers has published an open letter to the Prime Minister, urging her to simply crash out of the EU with no deal; Britons should "concentrate our resources on resolving administrative issues" rather than trade negotiations, they say. But recent analysis compiled by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics indicates that the option of leaving the EU without a negotiated trade deal could cost the British economy £430 billion (S$773 billion) over the first five years, or around 5 per cent of the country's total output.


Related Links:
The Straits Times - Messy divorce looms as Brexit talks go nowhere

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Standard

David Sexton: Our education system continues to favour privilege

The Sutton Trust’s optimistic slogan on its masthead proclaims that it has been “Improving social mobility for 20 years”. Sadly, its own site includes a disturbing study, commissioned from the LSE, revealing “that social mobility in Britain — the way in which someone’s adult outcomes are related to their circumstances as a child — is lower than in Canada, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland”. Moreover, unlike in America, social mobility is actually declining here rather than improving, mainly because graduation rates for the richest fifth have risen so much. 


Related Links:
Evening Standard - David Sexton: Our education system continues to favour privilege

Social Mobility in Britain: Low and Falling

CEP Labour Markets

Jo Blanden webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 26/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC TV Scotland

Scottish Questions

Snippet: Mention of LSE study on cost of Brexit for Scotland


Related Links:
BBC TV Scotland - Scottish Questions

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 26/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Telegraph

‘Premium minimum wage’ for workers would be too confusing, MPs told

Paying gig economy workers a premium level of the national minimum wage would risk confusing an already “too complicated” system by “over-egging the pudding”, MPs were told today. Sir David Metcalf, the UK’s director of labour market enforcement, said that he did not agree with proposals to pay premium rates of minimum wage for casual workers - a key recommendation of the Taylor Review of modern working practices. Sir David, who advised the Government on setting minimum levels of pay for 10 years, told the select committee on Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy that the suggestions outlined in the Taylor review would involve doubling the number of minimum wage levels from five to 10," he said.


Related Links:
The Telegraph - ‘Premium minimum wage’ for workers would be too confusing, MPs told

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Guardian

Embargo factories that rip off workers, says rights tsar

Director of labour market enforcement looking at measures against owners who refuse to follow employment regulations

The government should consider imposing an embargo on goods made in factories where workers have been underpaid, the workers’ rights tsar has told MPs. Sir David Metcalf, director of labour market enforcement, who reports to both the home and business secretaries, said he was looking at new measures to improve adherence to employment legislation. Speaking to a parliamentary inquiry into the recommendations of the Matthew Taylor review into gig economy workers on Wednesday, Metcalf said as many as 5% of the lowest paid may not be receiving the national minimum wage while holiday pay rules were “simply not enforced”.


Related Links:
The Guardian - Embargo factories that rip off workers, says rights tsar

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Press and Journal (Aberdeen)

Scottish Secretary “does not recognise” expert analysis of Brexit hit to Aberdeen

Scottish Secretary David Mundell has told opponents of Brexit to stop bandying about “damning figures” such as an analysis that Aberdeen will be worst hit by the divorce from Brussels. The London School of Economics yesterday published data suggesting a “no deal” departure from the bloc would cost the Granite City £3.5billion over five years – £1billion more than a so-called “soft” Brexit.


Related Links:
The Press and Journal (Aberdeen) - Scottish Secretary “does not recognise” expert analysis of Brexit hit to Aberdeen

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yorkshire Post

Leeds set to lose out on £6.4bn in a ‘Hard’ Brexit

However, the Department for Exiting the EU recently rejected requests to publish the analysis, arguing that there was a risk of a knock-on effect on national and regional economies . But the Lib Dems have workd with experts at the London School of Economics to produce their own estimates of the effects of a “hard” and “soft” Brexit.The party claims the cities of London and Birmingham are set to be the worst-hit in the event of a “no deal” exit, with parts of the capital seeing a 9.5 percent drop in output. However, it also suggests that Leeds, which has one of the biggest financial services sectors outside of the South East, could see a drop in output of up to six percent – equivalent to £6.4bn.


Related Links:
Yorkshire Post - Leeds set to lose out on £6.4bn in a ‘Hard’ Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News online

Brexit impact study ‘will not be published’ UK government assessments of the potential economic impact of Brexit on Scotland will not be made public, the Brexit secretary has confirmed.

But the analysis will be shared with the Scottish government, David Davis told a committee of MPs. Mr Davis told the Brexit select committee that publishing the analysis could undermine the national interest. However, Nicola Sturgeon said people had a right to know how leaving the EU would affect all areas of the UK. And she said any refusal to release the information to the public would be "unconscionable". Research published by the London School of Economics earlier this week estimated the loss of economic output in Scotland could be £30bn.


Related Links:
BBC News online - Brexit impact study ‘will not be published’ UK government assessments of the potential economic impact of Brexit on Scotland will not be made public, the Brexit secretary has confirmed.

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Scotsman

Leader comment: Brexit figures must not be kept secret

It is still unclear whether we are heading for a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit but, amid calls for a second referendum, it is important that voters are told about the UK Government’s own estimates of the potential damage. Westminster’s decision to share its so-far confidential Brexit impact report with the Scottish Government is welcome, but it must also eventually come clean with the public. The reason for keeping the report’s conclusions secret – that it would result in “precipitating preemptive and reactionary assumptions” that would damage the economy – hardly inspires confidence. Neither does an estimate by the respected London School of Economics, which found Scotland’s output could fall by £30 billion over five years if there is no trade deal with the EU.


Related Links:
The Scotsman - Leader comment: Brexit figures must not be kept secret

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 25/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

UK Parliament

Sir David Metcalf questioned on protecting workers' rights in the gig economy

09:49 AM BST

Work and Pensions and Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee question Director of Labour Market Enforcement

The following link will allow you to view a copy of the updated information.


Related Links:
UK Parliament - Sir David Metcalf questioned on protecting workers' rights in the gig economy

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Original 106 FM

Snippet: News story about study on the impact of Brexit on Aberdeen

Snippet: News story about study on the impact of Brexit on Aberdeen 


Related Links:
Original 106 FM - Snippet: News story about study on the impact of Brexit on Aberdeen

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio (Shetland)

(10/24/2017 6:20:18 AM)

Snippet: Discussion of study on cost of Brexit for Scotland


Related Links:
BBC Radio (Shetland) - (10/24/2017 6:20:18 AM)

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Stephen Machin webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times (Scotland)

Cities stand to lose billions from Brexit

Scotland’s biggest cities stand to lose billions of pounds if the UK government fails to secure a Brexit deal, the Liberal Democrats have claimed (Hamish Macdonell writes). The party commissioned analysis from the London School of Economics which, it claims, shows that Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen would all suffer massive damage to their economic output under a “hard Brexit”.


Related Links:
The Times (Scotland) - Cities stand to lose billions from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Universities deplore ‘McCarthyism’ as MP demands list of tutors lecturing on Brexit

Tory whip writes to every vice-chancellor to ask for syllabus and any online material

Academics are accusing a Tory MP and government whip of “McCarthyite” behaviour, after he wrote to all universities asking them to declare what they are teaching their students about Brexit and to provide a list of teachers’ names. … Prof Kevin Featherstone, head of the European Institute at the LSE, is also outraged: “The letter reflects a past of a McCarthyite nature. It smacks of asking: are you or have you ever been in favour of remain? There is clearly an implied threat that universities will somehow be challenged for their bias.” Featherstone says LSE academics had already feared Brexit censorship after the Electoral Commission made inquiries during last year’s referendum campaign about academics’ debates and research, following a complaint by Bernard Jenkin, another Tory MP. Jenkin filed a complaint when the LSE hosted an event at which the secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said there was “no upside for the UK in Brexit”. Jenkin, a board member of the Vote Leave campaign, also accused the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance of producing partisan research designed to convince the public to stay in the EU. The commission, whose job is to ensure fair campaigning, investigated and took no action against the university.


Related Links:
Guardian - Universities deplore ‘McCarthyism’ as MP demands list of tutors lecturing on Brexit

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Growth

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 24/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC London 94.9 (Radio)

Snippet: ..Discussion of study showing cost of Brexit on London


Related Links:
BBC London 94.9 (Radio) - Snippet: ..Discussion of study showing cost of Brexit on London

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Stephen Machin webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald (Scotland)

New analysis suggests Scotland would lose billions of pounds with Brexit

Every part of Scotland and the UK as a whole would be affected by a soft Brexit, which would retain access to the single market during a transition period, according to the London School of Economics (LSE). However, its experts warned they would suffer a much worse fate under a hard no-deal Brexit.


Related Links:
The Herald (Scotland) - New analysis suggests Scotland would lose billions of pounds with Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Birmingham Mail

Birmingham would lose almost £7 billion from a ‘hard Brexit’

Birmingham would be the second most damaged city in Britain by a hard Brexit, new research has revealed. The city's economy would lose £6.82 billion over five years. The figures, published by the respected Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, show how much the city's economy would shrink if the UK left the European Union without a deal giving us full access to the Single Market and the Customs Union.


Related Links:
Birmingham Mail - Birmingham would lose almost £7 billion from a ‘hard Brexit’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Evening Standard

Hard Brexit ‘would cost London more than £100bn’

London boroughs from the suburbs to the City stand to lose billions of pounds from Brexit, new research revealed today. The impact of a “hard” exit without a trade deal would cost the capital’s economy over £100 billion over five years, while a softer departure could cost some £58 billion. The impact would be heaviest in the City of London which would lose £22 billion from a 9.5 per cent drop in output in a hard Brexit, according to an analysis of London School of Economics studies by the Liberal Democrats.


Related Links:
Evening Standard - Hard Brexit ‘would cost London more than £100bn’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

ChronicleLive (Newcastle)

This is how much a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would drain out of Newcastle and the rest of the North East

Newcastle’s economy would shrink by £1.92bn, a fall in economic output of 5%. The figures, published by the respected Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, show how much the city’s economy would shrink if the UK left the European Union without a deal giving us full access to the Single Market and the Customs Union.


Related Links:
ChronicleLive (Newcastle) - This is how much a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would drain out of Newcastle and the rest of the North East

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 23/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Il Sole 24 Ore

Che cosa è successo con i robot in Germania. Finora/What happened to the robots in Germany. Till now

Recent research has shown that industrial robots in the US have led to heavy losses in terms of jobs and incomes. In this article, we will explore the impact they have had on the labor market in Germany, where robots are more popular than in the United States and the manufacturing industry's weight on total employment is much greater. …For our analysis, we use the same set of data from the International Federation of Robotics used by Acemoğlu and Restrepo (2016, 2017) and the pioneering study conducted by Graetz and Michaels (2017). This set of data shows the number of robots installed in 25 sectors and 50 countries over the period 1994 to 2014.


Related Links:
Il Sole 24 Ore - Che cosa è successo con i robot in Germania. Finora/What happened to the robots in Germany. Till now

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 22/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mail online

Leaving the EU without a trade deal could cost Britain £430 BILLION over five years, warns Vince Cable

Using calculations based on research by the London School of Economics, the Lib Dems say that if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a deal, Britain’s economic output in the five years after Brexit would be reduced by 5.3 per cent, or £430 billion. Even if the UK agreed to a Norway-style arrangement, in which we retain full access to the Single Market, there would still be a reduction of 2.9 per cent – or £235 billion. London would be worst hit by a no-deal Brexit, with a £115 billion fall in output up to March 2024.


Related Links:
Mail online - Leaving the EU without a trade deal could cost Britain £430 BILLION over five years, warns Vince Cable

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 22/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Daily Mirror

New Brexit research suggests Britain’s bill for leaving the EU without a deal

Leaving the EU will cost Britain £430billion over five years if no deal is done, research suggests. Even a “soft” Norway-style Brexit could cost the ­country £235billion – sparking serious fears for the economy. The analysis, seen by the Liberal Democrats, show all parts of the UK would be hit – from ­City of London financiers to industries in the regions. The analysis came from the London Schools of Economics Centre for Economic Performance. It found if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a trade deal, its economic output in the following five years would be down 5.3 per cent, equivalent to £430billion. Also in: Sunday Mirror - The People on 22 October 2017 'No-Deal Brexit to cost £430BN: Warning of economic turmoil for whole UK' [No link available]

 


Related Links:
Daily Mirror - New Brexit research suggests Britain’s bill for leaving the EU without a deal

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 21/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Economics of Education Review - Forthcoming

Smart but Unhappy: Independent-school Competition and the Wellbeing-efficiency Trade-off in Education


Related Links:
Economics of Education Review - Forthcoming - Smart but Unhappy: Independent-school Competition and the Wellbeing-efficiency Trade-off in Education

CEP Labour Markets

Gabriel Heller-sahlgren webpage


News Posted: 20/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Street.com

Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein trolls Britain’s Brexit plans with Frankfurt tweet

The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance and Centre for Cities estimates the British capital could lose as much as £18 billion ($23.7 billion) in annual revenue and as many as 30,000 jobs, a figure that EY suggests could rise to 83,000 in a worst-case "Hard Brexit" scenario.


Related Links:
The Street.com - Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein trolls Britain’s Brexit plans with Frankfurt tweet

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 19/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Spectator – Coffee House blog

The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

A major impediment to clarity has been the weight of advice from what Michael Gove calls ‘organisations with acronyms’ suggesting that  a ‘no deal’ on trade will greatly damage the UK economy. Our careful and detailed re-evaluation of the reports issued by the Treasury, OECD, the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance and others, shows that much of this was wrong. The key flaw in each case was the use of inappropriate benchmarks to judge the potential losses to the UK economy.


Related Links:
Spectator – Coffee House blog - The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Asian Robotics Review

Looking to make a fortune investing in robotics?

Industrial robots are high-quality, productive workers; humans can’t match their output.  Because of these steel-collar workers and their peerless output—around the clock if necessary!—productivity gets a boast. Factory owners like the increase in productivity, low price and ROI of these workers, so they are buying ever more. Such mass productivity affects GDP. Georg Graetz of Uppsala University and Guy Michaels of the London School of Economics in their Robots at Work “found that, on average…the increasing use of industrial robots over the time period raised the annual growth of GDP by 0.37%. They compared this substantial growth to the boosts in productivity that occurred at the turn of the 20th century from steam technology.” The comparison was near identical.


Related Links:
Asian Robotics Review - Looking to make a fortune investing in robotics?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 13/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Ted.com

Talks – Helen Pearson: Lessons from the longest study on human development

Another summary is offered in the introduction to this report Bucking the Trend (Jo Blanden, 2006) "A prime motivation behind the Government’s child poverty reduction strategy is the belief that growing up in poverty leads to children experiencing poorer outcomes later in life. Several studies support this assertion, showing that poorer children have weaker educational attainment (e.g. Gregg and Machin, 1999), and are more likely to end up in poverty in adulthood (Blanden and Gibbons, 2006). However, all these studies present the difference in the average outcomes of poor and non-poor children; clearly there are many children raised in poor backgrounds who do well in later life."

Related publications

‘'Bucking the trend' : what enables those who are disadvantaged in childhood to succeed later in life?’, Jo Blanden: a report of research carried out by the Department of Economics, University of Surrey and the Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions. [ Working paper ; no. 31 ], 2006

http://dera.ioe.ac.uk/7729/1/WP31.pdf

‘The Persistence of Poverty across Generations: A View from two British Cohorts’, Jo Blanden and Steve Gibbons, published for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation by The Policy Press, 25 April 2006

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/persistence-poverty-across-generations

 


Related Links:
Ted.com - Talks – Helen Pearson: Lessons from the longest study on human development

Cycles of Disadvantage

Child Development and Success or Failure in the Youth Labour Market

CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Jo Blanden webpage

Steve Gibbons webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 12/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

LinkedIn

One small town sock maker’s fight to keep jobs and make it in a different America

Fort Payne, Alabama was the former “Sock Capital of the World” until a trade deal triggered job losses. In this installment of #WorkInProgress, we show how one sock maker is pushing to keep “Made in USA” manufacturing jobs. … Just to take a step back, past technological advances in prior decades created new kinds of jobs as others disappeared. No economist is forecasting mass unemployment overnight. And you can’t blame robots for all lost manufacturing jobs. There are other shifts at play including globalization, offshoring and the skills gap. Researchers recently found no significant relationship between more industrial robots and overall employment. However, they did find evidence that suggests robots may reduce jobs for low-skilled workers. “We find that low-skilled workers in particular may lose out,” according to research published in June by George Graetz [sic] of Uppsala University in Sweden and Guy Michaels  of the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
LinkedIn - One small town sock maker’s fight to keep jobs and make it in a different America

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 10/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Pembrokeshire council vote for Brexit working group

A working group will be set up to prepare Pembrokeshire for the effect of Brexit, following a council vote. The county could lose £35.4m in trade if the United Kingdom opts for a "hard" Brexit, according to a report by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
BBC News - Pembrokeshire council vote for Brexit working group

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 09/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Sunday Times

Still clueless on Brexit – and it is taking its toll

… Whether post-EU frictionless trade is even possible remains to be seen. In an article in the London Review of Books, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta of the London School of Economics pour cold water on t...

Related article

‘How Not to Do Trade deals’, Swati Dhingra and Nikhil Datta, London Review of Books - Vol.39 No.18 September 2017

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals


Related Links:
The Sunday Times - Still clueless on Brexit – and it is taking its toll

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage


News Posted: 08/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Western Telegraph

Report to Pembrokeshire County Council cabinet compares likely impact of Brexit to Sea Empress oil disaster

Brexit will hit Pembrokeshire harder than the Sea Empress disaster, according to a comparison made in a report for Cabinet next week. The Director of Development’s report ahead of an agenda item called 'Planning for Brexit' outlines a proposal that the County Council prepare for the change in financial circumstances likely once the UK “terminates” its membership of the EU. The report acknowledges the likely impact on Pembrokeshire is difficult to assess but looked at the findings of a study carried out by the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Western Telegraph - Report to Pembrokeshire County Council cabinet compares likely impact of Brexit to Sea Empress oil disaster

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Foral.pl (Poland)

Gramy o więcej. Cała prawda o polskim rynku pracy / We play more. The whole truth about the Polish labor market

Speaking mainly about vending machines and industrial robots. A study by George, Graetz of Uppsala University and Guy Michaels of the London School of Economics, which investigated the impact of roboticisation on 14 industries in 17 different countries between 1993 and 2007, found that robots were responsible for an average of 16 percent. all productivity growth. At the same time, robots - contrary to the panoply of the Neolanders - did not contribute to the decrease in employment. There is nothing to be afraid of. On the contrary, robots and automation help keep companies competitive and therefore a prerequisite for their existence and development. Companies rarely invest in automation just to slow down. They do it to increase profits, set up new divisions and in the net result increase rather than reduce employment. But for companies to invest in machines, they have to have something.


Related Links:
Foral.pl (Poland) - Gramy o więcej. Cała prawda o polskim rynku pracy / We play more. The whole truth about the Polish labor market

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation

The inner workings of the Board: Evidence from emerging markets

Article by Ralph de Haas, Daniel Ferreira and Tom Kirchmaier

Our recent paper exploits data collected through an online survey of 130 current and past board directors (De Haas, Ferreira and Kirchmaier, 2017). These non-executive directors were on the boards of companies across 27 emerging markets and were all nominated by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We use these nominees as entry points to access detailed information about the behaviour and conduct of their boards.


Related Links:
Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation - The inner workings of the Board: Evidence from emerging markets

CEP Community CEP Labour Markets

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Medium.com – Third Way

Alexa, will automation destroy my job?

Finally, the jobs most susceptible to automation are routine jobs that are made up of few, repetitive tasks, which tend to be lower- or middle-skill jobs. Non-routine jobs, on the other hand, require interpersonal or critical-thinking skills that are not easily automated. In yet another paper, Autor explains that this distinction causes automation to help high-skill workers (and some low-skill workers, such as housekeepers) to the detriment of low- and medium-skill ones. This goes for industrial robots, too. Economists Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels found that industrial robots decrease the hours worked by both low- and medium-skill workers but have no effect on total hours worked — meaning that if these robots do help some workers in the industries where they’re implemented, they’re helping the highest-skilled and best-paid employees.


Related Links:
Medium.com – Third Way - Alexa, will automation destroy my job?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Recruiting Times

Is a bad degree result really the end of the world?

A study by the London School of Economics (LSE) found some evidence that graduates with a 2:1 degree would earn, on average, £81,000 more over a career lifetime than someone graduating with a 2:2; however, others suggest that a person’s long-term earning potential cannot be predicted as a result of their degree classification.


Related Links:
Recruiting Times - Is a bad degree result really the end of the world?

In brief: University exam results matter

A Question of Degree: The Effects of Degree Class on Labor Market Outcomes

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage


News Posted: 03/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

Recruiting Times

Is a bad degree result really the end of the world?

A study by the London School of Economics (LSE) found some evidence that graduates with a 2:1 degree would earn, on average, £81,000 more over a career lifetime than someone graduating with a 2:2; however, others suggest that a person’s long-term earning potential cannot be predicted as a result of their degree classification.


Related Links:
Recruiting Times - Is a bad degree result really the end of the world?

In brief: University exam results matter

A Question of Degree: The Effects of Degree Class on Labor Market Outcomes

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage


News Posted: 03/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

EA Magazine

Essential reading selected by IEA Research Fellow Diego Zuluaga – Where did the workers go? Investigating jobless recoveries

Article by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels

Whilst the U.S. unemployment rate has returned to pre-recession lows, there is concern among policymakers about other developments in the American labour market, notably the secular decline in the labour force participation rate since the turn of the millennium.

Related publications

‘Is modern technology responsible for jobless recoveries?’, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, American Economic Review 107.5 (May): 168-73.

10.1257/aer.p20171100 / http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.p20171100


Related Links:
EA Magazine - Essential reading selected by IEA Research Fellow Diego Zuluaga – Where did the workers go? Investigating jobless recoveries

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 02/10/2017      [Back to the Top]

LBC online

Maajid Nawaz: Maajid explains to leaver why immigration does not reduce wages

"Wheat and bread isn't analogous to workers coming to the country and that being the cause of the depreciation of wages. "The Economic Centre at LSE's Centre of Policy and Research [sic], have studied precisely this only about a month and a half ago. "They came to the conclusion that one of the biggest causes of wage depreciation was in fact the economic crash. It's the bankers that have caused your suffering, not the immigrants.


Related Links:
LBC online - Maajid Nawaz: Maajid explains to leaver why immigration does not reduce wages

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 30/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Bigger rewards and less risk are making crime more attractive

One of the leading authorities on the subject today is Stephen Machin, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He has analysed London Metropolitan police data over the decade to 2012 and scraped drug marketplaces on the dark web to show that criminals not only act rationally but operate sophisticated economic models, too…. “People with something to lose are less likely to view criminal participation as attractive, and crime reduction can therefore be achieved by influencing life opportunities,” Olivier Marie, Mr Machin’s colleague at the LSE, wrote recently.

Also in:

The Australian

Bigger rewards and less risk for crime

One of the leading authorities on the subject today is Stephen Machin, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He has analysed London Metropolitan police data over the decade to 2012 and scraped drug marketplaces on the dark web to show that criminals not only act rationally but operate sophisticated economic models, too.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/bigger-rewards-and-less-risk-for-crime/news-story/afa3c758338785f3ffe75f3bd27b0202

 

The Times (Irish edition)

Bigger rewards and less risk are making crime more attractive

https://printmonitoringservice.vuelio.co.uk/file/displaypdf?articleid=309922&clientname=86099_LSE_PRINT&filename=402962453.pdf

 


Related Links:
The Times - Bigger rewards and less risk are making crime more attractive

The Economic Functioning of Online Drugs Markets

Lessons from the economics of crime

CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Stephen Machin webpage

Olivier Marie webpage


News Posted: 30/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Howling Pixel

Technological unemployment

Some recent studies however, such as a 2015 paper by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, found that at least in the area they studied – the impact of industrial robots – innovation is boosting pay for highly skilled workers while having a more negative impact on those with low to medium skills


Related Links:
Howling Pixel - Technological unemployment

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 26/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

CounterFire

Robots and AI: utopia or dystopia? Part one

In recent work, Graetz and Michaels looked at 14 industries (mainly manufacturing industries, but also agriculture and utilities) in 17 developed countries (including European countries, Australia, South Korea, and the US). They found that industrial robots increase labour productivity, total factor productivity, and wages.  At the same time, while industrial robots had no significant effect on total hours worked, there is some evidence that they reduced the employment of low skilled workers, and, to a lesser extent, also middle skilled workers.


Related Links:
CounterFire - Robots and AI: utopia or dystopia? Part one

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 23/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Farming UK

Exchange rate and other favourable countries sees UK migrant labour shortage

NFU Scotland warns that this will only "get worse year on year" for Scotland's soft fruit and vegetable sectors. The pre and post Brexit employment needs of Scotland’s fast-growing horticultural sector were outlined at a meeting of the UK’s Migration Advisory Committee in Edinburgh this week. NFU Scotland’s Horticulture Committee Chairman James Porter, who grows soft fruit as part of a mixed farming enterprise at East Scryne, Carnoustie met with Professor Alan Manning, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee at a roundtable meeting with stakeholders.


Related Links:
Farming UK - Exchange rate and other favourable countries sees UK migrant labour shortage

CEP Labour Markets

Alan Manning webpage


News Posted: 22/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Young Socialists

Why do young people need socialism?

The future for young people in Britain today looks very bleak. The Centre for Economic Performance reports that within Britain - which is surpassed only by Greece for worst wage growth of the OECD countries - it is 18 to 21-year-olds who have been hit the hardest. Their wages have been cut by 16% in real terms between 2008 and 2016.


Related Links:
Young Socialists - Why do young people need socialism?

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 20/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

MoneyWeek

The UK cities that will be most affected by Brexit

It’s important to realise that, while Brexit will have an effect on the whole of the UK, it will not be spread evenly around the country. In an attempt to look at the relative winners and losers, the think-tank Centre for Cities and the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance teamed up to produce Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities.  This report, by Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman, attempts to model the impact on a much finer level.


Related Links:
MoneyWeek - The UK cities that will be most affected by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 19/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Somerset (5:19:24 PM)

Tom Kirchmaier comments on police funding


Related Links:
BBC Somerset (5:19:24 PM) - Tom Kirchmaier comments on police funding

CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 19/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Somerset (5:19:24 PM)

Tom Kirchmaier comments on police funding

Click to open


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 19/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Conversation

Fact Check: does immigration have an impact on wages or employment?

Review

Jonathan Wadsworth, professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London

According to standard economic textbooks, the purported effects of immigration on the existing workforce are undoubtedly negative – like the minimum wage. How so when the academic evidence – as accurately outlined in this fact check – does indeed suggest that, contrary to standard texts, immigration does not have any large significant effect on employment either in aggregate or among groups supposedly most at risk? Nor does immigration appear to depress wages of native-born Britons much. The recently resurrected study, cited by politicians and the media could not determine whether its findings of a small negative wage effect apply to UK-born people or immigrants or both. Politicians and the media making disingenuous, selective or, at best, misinformed interpretations of academic studies do not help. There is also a lot of dross out there and sifting through it is not always easy, for anyone, politicians and the media included. Ultimately, continued dialogue and engagement between academia and the outside world can only help understanding and inform policy making.

The Conversation is checking claims made by public figures and prominent commentators in public debates. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert then reviews an anonymous copy of the article.

 


Related Links:
The Conversation - Fact Check: does immigration have an impact on wages or employment?

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Portfolio (Hungary)

Sok munka, sok adó: így élnek a londoni magyarok/There is a lot of work and a lot of taxes: so do the Hungarians living in London

Last year before the Brexit referendum, the Center for Economic Performance (CEP) produced a study on the economic impacts of Eastern European immigrants. The London School of Economics, a research institute from the results of labor market surveys, concluded that immigrants from the EU are typically younger, more skilled and more likely than the British born.


Related Links:
Portfolio (Hungary) - Sok munka, sok adó: így élnek a londoni magyarok/There is a lot of work and a lot of taxes: so do the Hungarians living in London

Immigration and the UK Economy

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Growth

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 13/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Amplo Creative – Business

Robots won’t take our jobs, but improve them

In the recent shift from outsourcing manufacturing, many pundits have argued that the addition of more robotic job automation the more manufacturing jobs would be lost. This correlation has recently been the scapegoat for the loss of these jobs regardless of the fact that there is no shortage of alternative explanations including globalization, offshoring, and skill gaps to name a few. However, if robots were a substitute for human workers than countries with higher investment rates in automation technology should have greater employment loss in their manufacturing industry, right? Not necessarily. In the report by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels the researchers found “that the number of industrial robots per 1 million hours worked in Germany grew over 3 times,” [5] it’s own usage in 1993 and is still currently operating at 3 times the capacity of the U.S. due to the auto industry.


Related Links:
Amplo Creative – Business - Robots won’t take our jobs, but improve them

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 12/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

GetReading

See how MPs for Berkshire voted in the Brexit Repeal Bill

Earlier in the summer, research from think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics revealed Reading is likely to be one of the areas hit hardest by Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
GetReading - See how MPs for Berkshire voted in the Brexit Repeal Bill

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 12/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC World Service

(11:40:07 PM)

Snippet: ... for the first time compared to previous decades they would not receive anything so they are receiving somethings in relative terms to the top they're closing the relative gap but in absolute terms this is from research London School of Economics looking UK data the ...

Also on

BBC Radio 4


Related Links:
BBC World Service - (11:40:07 PM)

Home ownership and social mobility

Home Ownership and Social Mobility

CEP Labour Markets

Jo Blanden webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 10/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

LBC (Radio)

(1:00:01 pm)

Snippet: down and down and then the NHS within a matter of the housing crisis for napping and all that get blamed on immigrants. Mention of a study done at the London School of Economics looking at the relationship between migrants and wage depreciation which found there wasn’t a link…


Related Links:
LBC (Radio) - (1:00:01 pm)

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 09/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business 2 Community

Automation: the future of your business?

In the academic paper ‘Robots at Work’, Georg Graetz of Uppsala University and the LSE’s Guy Michaels discovered that, between 1993 and 2007, automated systems encouraged the average GDP of countries to leap by 0.37%. That was ten years ago, when automation was still an unknown quantity. Today, that figure is likely to be higher.


Related Links:
Business 2 Community - Automation: the future of your business?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 09/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Orange County Register

Taxing robots will hurt California innovation and opportunity

Economists Georg Graetz of Uppsala University and Guy Michaels of the London School of Economics produced a 2015 study which found that between 1993 and 2007, Michaels said, there was “a negative effect of robots on low-skilled workers’ employment,” yet there was “no significant effect on overall employment.” In other words, the low-skilled workers at best moved into better jobs and at worst stayed in similar jobs. “Their study,” writes Bailey, “also found that the increases in the number of robots boosted annual economic growth by 0.37 percent.”


Related Links:
The Orange County Register - Taxing robots will hurt California innovation and opportunity

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 09/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

EUnited – Robotics: European Robotics Association

German robots – the impact of industrial robots on workers

The third reason to focus on Germany is a practical one. Detailed German labor market data are merged with the same data on industrial robots, that is also used by Acemoglu and Restrepo (Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, 2017) and in the pioneering study by Graetz and Michaels (Robots at Work, 2015) who exploit industry-level variation across countries.


Related Links:
EUnited – Robotics: European Robotics Association - German robots – the impact of industrial robots on workers

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Newsreview.com

Are robots going to steal our jobs?

In 2015, economists Georg Graetz of Uppsala University and Guy Michaels of the London School of Economics analyzed the effects of industrial robots on employment in 17 different countries between 1993 and 2007. In contrast to the Acemoglu and Restrepo study, “We find a negative effect of robots on low-skilled workers’ employment,” Michaels said in an interview, “but no significant effect on overall employment.” Their study also found that the increases in the number of robots boosted annual economic growth by 0.37 percent.


Related Links:
Newsreview.com - Are robots going to steal our jobs?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

I've been working with colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) and the Centre for Cities (Naomi Clayton) to take a first look at the local economic impacts of Brexit. You can read the more technical CEP piece here and the less technical Centre for Cities piece here. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

News Review

Are robots going to steal our jobs?

In 2015, economists Georg Graetz of Uppsala University and Guy Michaels of the London School of Economics analyzed the effects of industrial robots on employment in 17 different countries between 1993 and 2007. In contrast to the Acemoglu and Restrepo study, “We find a negative effect of robots on low-skilled workers’ employment,” Michaels said in an interview, “but no significant effect on overall employment.” Their study also found that the increases in the number of robots boosted annual economic growth by 0.37 percent.


Related Links:
News Review - Are robots going to steal our jobs?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 07/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Oxford Times

Brexit has had 'little affect' on Oxford's finances, report finds

A report by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance had suggested Brexit would leave all British cities adversely affected.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Oxford Times - Brexit has had 'little affect' on Oxford's finances, report finds

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Conatus News

Post-Brexit Industrial Strategy – Dawn of a New Era for Britain?

The Centre for Economic Performance at London School of Economics has predicted a soft brexit is likely to increase the cost of EU trade by 2%, causing a subsequent 1% fall in British GDP, while a hard Brexit will see costs of trade increase by 8%, and a 2% fall in GDP…

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Conatus News - Post-Brexit Industrial Strategy – Dawn of a New Era for Britain?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Marginal Revolution

French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Snippet…Here is the amazing fact: today, 16 of France’s 20 largest cities are located on or near a Roman town, while only 2 of Britain’s 20 largest are. This difference existed even back in the Middle Ages. So who cares? Well, Britain’s cities in the middle ages are two and a half times more likely to have coastal access than France’s cities, so that in 1700, when sea trade was hugely important, 56% of urban French lived in towns with sea access while 87% of urban Brits did…

That is from A Fine Theorem, discussing a recent paper by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch.

Also in

Politics in theory and practice 

“Resetting the Urban Network,” G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

Snippet…Cities have two important properties: they are enormously consequential for people’s economic prosperity, and they are very sticky…..

https://politicstheorypractice.wordpress.com/2017/09/03/resetting-the-urban-network-g-michaels-f-rauch-2017/

 

Bullfax 

French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Even at a very local level, the France/Britain distinction holds: when Roman cities were within 25km of the ocean or a navigable river, they tended not to move in France, while in Britain they tended to reappear nearer to the water. The fundamental factor for the shift in both places was that developments in shipbuilding in the early middle ages made the sea much more suitable for trade and military transport than the famous Roman Roads which previously played that role.

These days, the French model is looking somewhat better, as Toulouse has held its ground more readily than has Liverpool.

That is from A Fine Theorem, discussing a recent paper by Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch.

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-french-cities-are-roman-sites-rather-sea


Related Links:
Marginal Revolution - French cities are Roman sites rather than by the sea

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 03/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

Marginal Revolution

Flooded Cities

Snippet…Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters.


Related Links:
Marginal Revolution - Flooded Cities

Flooded Cities

Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 01/09/2017      [Back to the Top]

A Fine Theorem

Resetting the Urban Network, G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

..With incredible timing, Michaels and Rauch, alongside two other coauthors, have another working paper called Flooded Cities. Essentially, looking across the globe, there are frequent very damaging floods, occurring every 20 years or so in low-lying areas of cities…


Related Links:
A Fine Theorem - Resetting the Urban Network, G. Michaels & F. Rauch (2017)

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Guy Michaels webpage

Ferdinand Rauch webpage


News Posted: 30/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Politics.co.uk

Why is the government so afraid to publish its Brexit impact studies?

There has been a veritable flood of studies indicating what an economic disaster awaits us if the government pursue its preferred hard Brexit route. If the government's own studies contain anything to counter this overwhelmingly pessimistic outlook, why have they not been released? We can only conclude that either the government is running scared of its own extreme form of leaving the EU, or it wants to keep a lid on the dire consequences of it. It's probably safe to assume therefore that the government's own analysis agrees with a recent Local Business Survey. It showed that of 419 small and medium sized enterprises surveyed in the South West of England, 57% of exporters believed the impact of leaving the single market will be 'negative' or 'very negative'. This compared with just ten per cent who think the impact will be 'positive' or 'very positive'. Or a recent study from the Centre for Economic Performance that examined the negative impacts of trade barriers. It predicts that under either a soft or hard Brexit scenario, leaving the EU will have a devastating impact on the economic performance of our towns and cities.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
Politics.co.uk - Why is the government so afraid to publish its Brexit impact studies?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 24/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Times of Tunbridge Wells

Report claims Brexit will sting whatever guise it comes in…

THE economies of both Tunbridge Wells and Tonbridge will suffer in the coming years due to Brexit, a new report by the London School of Economics claims. Titled The Local Economic Effects of Brexit, the study shows every authority in the UK will see its prosperity curtailed regardless of whether it is a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. According to the report, if the UK was to undertake a ‘hard Brexit’, then in the ten years after crashing out of the EU the economy of Tunbridge Wells will be 2.6 per cent smaller than if it had stayed in. … The report’s authors, who work for the university’s Centre for Economic Performance, state they have modelled their estimates on ‘medium to long run impact of changes to trade costs’, and have ignored effects on innovation, immigration and inward investment.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Times of Tunbridge Wells - Report claims Brexit will sting whatever guise it comes in…

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

HowlingPixel

Technological unemployment

Some recent studies however, such as a 2015 paper by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, found that at least in the area they studied – the impact of industrial robots – innovation is boosting pay for highly skilled workers while having a more negative impact on those with low to medium skills.

 


Related Links:
HowlingPixel - Technological unemployment

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 14/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

The regions can be our road to revival, but only if transport links are improved

A rebalancing is long overdue. “Regional disparities are wider in the UK than other western European countries,” according to the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance. One reason why London’s productivity, and hence wealth, is so much greater than Britain’s other cities is the sophistication of the commuter network. Studies have shown that people tolerate roughly an hour’s travel but much more than that and the pool of labour available to an employer shrinks. With such a shallow pool of talent in sites as stranded as Cheshire science park, business would have to think twice about putting down roots.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017 

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Times - The regions can be our road to revival, but only if transport links are improved

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 12/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

KentLive

Thanet is predicted to be the worst affected area in Kent by a ‘soft Brexit’

Experts have predicted that Thanet would be the hardest hit area of Kent in a 'soft Brexit' scenario. A new study by the London School of Economics revealed that Thanet could lose £27.2 million – based largely on the assumption the UK could still negotiate access to the EU single market.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
KentLive - Thanet is predicted to be the worst affected area in Kent by a ‘soft Brexit’

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Prospect magazine

Hard or soft, Brexit will hit every British city—and pro-Leave areas will find it hardest to recover

People up and down the country can ill afford for silly season squabbles to distract us from the complexity of Brexit

…amidst the summer politicking and parties, a new report by Centre for Cities should make for sobering reading for Government ministers, particularly those pushing for a hard Brexit. The report (published in partnership with the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE) charts for the first time the likely impact of both a hard or soft Brexit on UK cities in the decade after new trade arrangements with the EU are put in place - and in both scenarios, the news isn’t good.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf

 


Related Links:
Prospect magazine - Hard or soft, Brexit will hit every British city—and pro-Leave areas will find it hardest to recover

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 10/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post

Credit Crunch Anniversary: Why Pay Is A ‘Long Way’ From Recovering And How Brexit Is Making It Worse

A London School of Economics report in June showed that Britain was one of just three out of 28 countries that saw wages fall in real terms between 2007 and 2015.

The only country where wages fell more was Greece, which has suffered economic catastrophe in the years since the crisis.

 


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Huffington Post - Credit Crunch Anniversary: Why Pay Is A ‘Long Way’ From Recovering And How Brexit Is Making It Worse

#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage

Romesh Vaitilingam webpage


News Posted: 09/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Consultancy UK

Real pay growth to stagnate in 2017 and 2018

Private sector workers too have seen a significant drop in real term wages in recent years, with an LSE study estimating an effective 10% decrease since the financial crisis to 2015.


Related Links:
Consultancy UK - Real pay growth to stagnate in 2017 and 2018

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 07/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

CityMetric

Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

A lot of my time at work is given over to worrying fitfully about two things. One is cities policy. The other is Brexit. What could be more thrilling, then, than a report which combines those two topics into a single piece of research? The answer, as it turns out, is almost anything, because this report is one of the most depressing things I’ve seen in ages. The study, a joint effort between the Centre for Cities and LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, looks at what both “Hard” and “Soft” Brexit would do to the economies of 62 British cities. (In the unlikely event you’re unsure, “soft” Brexit means we stay in a free trade area with the EU, but have to content with new non-tariff barriers; “hard” Brexit means we have to deal with tariffs as well.)

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
CityMetric - Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 07/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wales online

Top economists have calculated the impact of a soft or hard Brexit on Swansea

Their research found that every local authority would be negatively affected under either scenario but concluded that the economic impact of leaving the single market and customs union would be around twice as severe as a milder Brexit. The academics said they were surprised that the additional cost of a hard Brexit was significantly higher in some areas than others – and cited the nature of industry and employment in those areas as the reason.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Wales online - Top economists have calculated the impact of a soft or hard Brexit on Swansea

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Spirit FM

West Sussex town ranked ‘second most affected' area post-Brexit

A new report by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) predicts Worthing will be on the places hit hardest by an expected downturn in trade after the country leaves the EU.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Spirit FM - West Sussex town ranked ‘second most affected' area post-Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Slough Express

Slough to be among top urban areas to feel negatie impact of Brexit, study says

New research suggests that Slough will be among the top five UK urban areas to be negatively impacted by Brexit. A report by the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance and think tank Centre for Cities says the South-east of England and urban areas will be hit the hardest. The paper, titled ‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, assesses the impact of trade barriers associated with 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit scenarios.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Slough Express - Slough to be among top urban areas to feel negatie impact of Brexit, study says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 05/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Press and Journal (Scotland)

‘Labour created the welfare state and will always fight to protect it'

Britain’s most successful cities with large high-skilled service sectors will be hit hardest by the expected downturn in trade after the UK leaves the EU. Sadly, that means bad news for Aberdeen. A report from the think-tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance placed the Granite City at the top of the list of “most affected” cities.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Press and Journal (Scotland) - ‘Labour created the welfare state and will always fight to protect it'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 04/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Somerset County Gazette

Taunton Deane economy could take a Brexit hit of 1.2% to 2.3%

BREXIT will damage the economic performance of Taunton Deane, according to new report. The Centre for Economic Performance believes the economy in the district will take a 1.2 per cent hit under a sort Brexit - that is to say if Britain remains in the single market and the customs union. But a hard Brexit - leaving the two organisations - would see the economy suffer to the tune of 2.3 per cent. Molly Scott Cato, Green MEP for the South West, said: “This new study shows that both a hard and soft form of Brexit will have a devastating impact on the economic performance of our towns and cities across the South West.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Somerset County Gazette - Taunton Deane economy could take a Brexit hit of 1.2% to 2.3%

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 03/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Heart Berkshire (Radio)

[06:00:00]

Snippet: ... Reading has come out third on a list of 10 towns in the UK most likely to be hit hardest by Brexit report of the London School of Economics says Dorsey a fall i...

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Heart Berkshire (Radio) - [06:00:00]

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Getreading

Reading has been named as one of the areas likely to be hit hardest by Brexit

A new report put Reading in third place of areas worst hit by a hard Brexit

A new report by the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics reveals the cities and towns most affected by a soft leaving of the European Union and a hard exit.

Professor Stephen Machin, from the Centre for Economic Performance, added: “This research shows that focusing on the likely local economic impacts of Brexit will be a critical ingredient for policymakers when thinking about how to offset the negative economic effects that loss of trade due to Brexit will bring.”

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Getreading - Reading has been named as one of the areas likely to be hit hardest by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 02/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSEIQ podcast

Episode 2 | What's the future of work?

Tackling the question, ‘What’s the future of work’, are: Professor David Graeber of LSE’s Department of Anthropology; Dr Aleks Krotoski, social psychologist, technology journalist and former visiting fellow in LSE’s Media and Communications Department ; Dr Guy Michaels, LSE Associate Professor of Economics; and Leslie Willcocks , Professor of Technology, Work and Globalisation at LSE. 


Related Links:
LSEIQ podcast - Episode 2 | What's the future of work?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 01/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

This is Wiltshire

Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The authors of the report, Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman of the LSE’s Centre For Economic Performance, said: “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard’ Brexit.”

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
This is Wiltshire - Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 01/08/2017      [Back to the Top]

Robotiq

5 shocking statistics from manufacturers who turned to robotics

Research done by Graetz and Michaels has shown that robots are contributing to historic production growth since their entrance into the manufacturing industries. Overall, it shows that between 1993 and 2007, robots accounted for 16% of labor productivity. While IT tech has been leading the world in labor productivity, robotics are a close second, and already ahead of the steam engine, which revolutionized manufacturing in the 19th and early 20th centuries.


Related Links:
Robotiq - 5 shocking statistics from manufacturers who turned to robotics

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 31/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Swindon Advertiser

Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The London School of Economics has published an analysis of the possible effects of a ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ Brexit on towns and cities all over the country.

The report predicts that Swindon’s GVA will decline by 2.8 per cent under a hard Brexit and 1.5 per cent under a soft Brexit.

The authors of the report, Naomi Clayton and Professor Henry Overman of the LSE’s Centre For Economic Performance, said: “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard’ Brexit.”

But Ian Larrard, the director of the Swindon and Wiltshire Initiative at Business West, shrugged off the findings and said there was good reason to be optimistic.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Swindon Advertiser - Business leaders optimistic despite shock statistics that put Swindon among hardest hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 31/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Gazette Live

Hard or soft Brexit? This is what experts think the impact could be on Middlesbrough either way

Middlesbrough has been singled out as one of the places which could be hardest hit by Brexit.

As the debate over the terms of the UK’s exit of the European Union continue to be debated, the potential impact on regional economies have been analysed by a think tank.

Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at London School of Economics said wealthy Southern cities will be hit hardest by both a ‘soft’ or ‘hard’ Brexit - but are also best placed to adapt to economic shocks ahead.

                  Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Gazette Live - Hard or soft Brexit? This is what experts think the impact could be on Middlesbrough either way

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 30/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Appsforpcdaily.com

Brexit transition deal will end by 2022, says Philip Hammond

In findings released by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the potential impact of either Brexit "type" on major cities in the United Kingdom was analysed for the first time.


Related Links:
Appsforpcdaily.com - Brexit transition deal will end by 2022, says Philip Hammond

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Journal (Newcastle)

Brexit recovery harder for North East – study

…Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London…

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Journal (Newcastle) - Brexit recovery harder for North East – study

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 29/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Aberdeen to be worst hit by Brexit but all British cities will suffer

New research examining for the first time the potential impact of Brexit on cities and towns has found Aberdeen could be the hardest hit by higher trade costs with the European Union, though no British city will escape its effects.


Related Links:
The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

The UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

Article by Henry Overman: The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (working with the Centre for Cities think tank) has carried out a study shedding light upon the local economic impact of Brexit. Henry G. Overman writes that it is the richer cities, predominantly in the south of England, that will be hit hardest by Brexit, with this effect particularly apparent in areas specialised in services.


Related Links:
LSE British Politics and Policy blog - The UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Urban and Spatial Programme CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Henry Overman webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

How the rise of the service sector boosted the demand for women workers

The historical growth in the service sector has created jobs for which women have a natural comparative advantage, write Rachel Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo

..There has been a vast amount of research on the causes and consequences of the rise in women’s involvement in the labour market. Proposed explanations include growing investment in human capital, medical advances, technological progress in the household, wider availability of child care, and evolving gender norms. Our research puts forward a new and complementary explanation based on the rise of the service economy and its role in boosting the demand for female work.

Related publications

‘Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy’, L. Rachel Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo. American Economic Journal, forthcoming https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20150253


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - How the rise of the service sector boosted the demand for women workers

Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy

CEP Labour Markets

Barbara Petrongolo webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

City AM

These are the six UK cities that will suffer most from a 'hard' Brexit

The study by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic performance at the London School of Economics found that cities with large high-skilled service sectors, such as business and financial services, are expected to be worst hit by potential tariff changes.

"This research shows that focusing on the likely local economic impacts of Brexit will be a critical ingredient for policymakers when thinking about how to offset the negative economic effects that loss of trade due to Brexit will bring," said Stephen Machin, from the Centre for Economic Performance.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
City AM - These are the six UK cities that will suffer most from a 'hard' Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Click Lancashire

Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

Smaller cities Crawley and Barnsley are predicted to have the lowest downturn in economic output of either a "hard" or "soft" Brexit, alongside cities like Hull and Wakefield. A new report today named Aberdeen as the United Kingdom city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit.

 

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Click Lancashire - Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Newburgh Gazette (Illinois, USA)

Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

Aberdeen and Edinburgh are the cities set to take the biggest financial hit when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, according to a think tank that predicts a downturn in trade even if ministers strike a “soft Brexit” deal. A new report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said all cities would see a fall in output due to increasing trade costs. Cities such as London, Aberdeen and Edinburgh voted against Brexit in last June’s referendum, the report pointed out.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Newburgh Gazette (Illinois, USA) - Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Energy Voice

Brexit's impact on Aberdeen ‘not as bad as thought', minister says

The impact of Brexit on Aberdeen’s economy will not be as bad as predicted, according to junior Brexit minister Robin Walker. Mr Walker was responding to a bombshell report from the Centre for Cities, whose analysis showed the Granite City’s economy would take the hardest hit in the UK from leaving the EU. The Conservative will visit Aberdeen today to meet oil and gas bosses as well as fishermen and listen to their views on negotiations with the EU.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Energy Voice - Brexit's impact on Aberdeen ‘not as bad as thought', minister says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The National (Scotland)

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp: Scotland WILL bear the brunt of Brexit recession

…Evidence again that any form of Brexit will do more damage to Scotland’s farming sector than it will to the UK as a whole. At least the city economies will be OK though? Not a chance. The report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, has predicted Aberdeen to suffer the most economic damage of all UK cities from Brexit and placed Edinburgh 6th on the hit list.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The National (Scotland) - Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp: Scotland WILL bear the brunt of Brexit recession

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aberdeen Evening Express

Aberdeen's politicians and businesses remain upbeat despite prediction City will suffer most from Brexit

Aberdeen can rise to the challenge of finding news ways to boost the economy, politicians and industry leaders said today. The confident comments come despite a report yesterday that predicts Brexit will hit Aberdeen’s economy the hardest of any UK city. Written by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School Economics, the report predicts Aberdeen’s economic output will shrink by up to 3.7%. Centre for Cities chief executive Andrew Carter said: “The challenge for Aberdeen will be to diversify its industrial structure in the years ahead, so that it is less reliant on one sector (oil and gas). “This will be crucial for the city to thrive after we leave the EU.” Aberdeen City Council leader, Cllr Jenny Laing, admitted there were “huge challenges” ahead, but said positive strides are being taken.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Aberdeen Evening Express - Aberdeen's politicians and businesses remain upbeat despite prediction City will suffer most from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Shropshire Star

Telford less likely to be hit by hard Brexit than other UK towns and cities

Telford will be among the UK towns least-affected by a hard Brexit, a report claims – although economists today denied its suggestion that a lack of skills in the town will cushion the blow.

Researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics published the report into the effect of Brexit on local economies.

In it, the think tank claims areas with greater skills bases will also be those that are hit the hardest by withdrawing from access to the European single market.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Shropshire Star - Telford less likely to be hit by hard Brexit than other UK towns and cities

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Chronicle Live

All areas of North East will be hit by Brexit, new study shows

All areas of the North East would be hit by Brexit and may take longer to recover than other parts of the country, a new study says. The study by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics predicts that economic output in the North East would be between 1.1% and 1.4% lower in the event of a “soft” brexit , but this would almost double to 2%-2.6% if the Government opts for a “hard” Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Chronicle Live - All areas of North East will be hit by Brexit, new study shows

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Business Insider UK

The 6 UK cities that will suffer most from a ‘hard' Brexit

Wealthy Southern cities are predicted to be hardest hit by Brexit, according to a new report. The study, by the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, found that cities with large high-skilled service sectors, such as business and financial services, are expected to be worst hit by potential tariff changes.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Business Insider UK - The 6 UK cities that will suffer most from a ‘hard' Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Blackpool Gazette

Resort named in Brexit hit list

A think tank analysed the potential impact of both a “hard” and “soft” Brexit on British cities in the 10 years following the implementation of new trade arrangements with the EU. It is the most prosperous UK cities which will be hit hardest by the downturn ahead, but poorer places across the North and Midlands will find it tougher to adapt.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Blackpool Gazette - Resort named in Brexit hit list

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 28/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Herald (Scotland)

Scottish cities to pay highest price for Brexit


Related Links:
The Herald (Scotland) - Scottish cities to pay highest price for Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Yorkshire Evening Post

'Leeds could be among hardest-hit by Brexit'


Related Links:
Yorkshire Evening Post - 'Leeds could be among hardest-hit by Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

(17:10:06)


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Public Sector Executive

Economy and infrastructure

All cities in the UK are looking set to see a fall in economic output regardless of whether a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit is delivered, experts have today warned – but more prosperous regions will be hit harder than others. In findings released by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, the potential impact of either Brexit ‘type’ on major cities in the UK was analysed for the first time.


Related Links:
Public Sector Executive - Economy and infrastructure

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

STV online

News: Aberdeen ‘will be UK city worst hit by hard Brexit'

London and Edinburgh also ranked in the top ten list compiled by researchers at the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
STV online - News: Aberdeen ‘will be UK city worst hit by hard Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Insider.co.uk

Aberdeen ‘worst affected city in UK if there's a hard Brexit'

Centre for Cities and Centre for Economic Performance analysis also places Edinburgh sixth in a top ten of urban conurbations hit most if the country fails to strike a deal with the EU.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Insider.co.uk - Aberdeen ‘worst affected city in UK if there's a hard Brexit'

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

International Business Times

Revealed: the cities Brexit will hit hardest

Aberdeen will be the hardest hit city in the UK by Brexit, according to a new report on the economic impact of withdrawal from the European Union (EU). Other cities or urban areas such as London, Slough and Edinburgh are in the top ten of a list compiled by researchers at the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
International Business Times - Revealed: the cities Brexit will hit hardest

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Worthing Herald

Study reveals Worthing will suffer from Brexit

Worthing is among the top ten towns that will suffer the most by Britain’s exit from Europe, according to a study that overturns assumptions that poorer areas of the UK will suffer the most. For the first time, research by the Centre for Cities think-tank and the Centre for Economic Performance at London School of Economics has analysed the likely impact of both hard and soft Brexit in the decade after any trade deal is done with Europe.

Also in:  Littlehampton Gazette, Study reveals Worthing will suffer from Brexit

Related publications:  ‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017;

Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017


Related Links:
Worthing Herald - Study reveals Worthing will suffer from Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Planner

Brexit will hit southern UK cities hardest – report

Cities that are successful and have large high-skilled service sectors, mainly located in the south of England, will be hit the hardest by Brexit, whether it is ‘hard’ or ‘soft’. A report by think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics (LSE) also says these cities are better placed to adapt to the economic shocks ahead compared with less affluent places that are less directly affected by Brexit. The report considers the impact both a soft and hard Brexit might have on British cities in the 10 years following new trade arrangements with the EU being implemented. Researchers say a hard Brexit would bring an average reduction of 2.3 per cent in economic input across all UK cities compared with a soft Brexit, which would result in a 1.2 per cent decrease. Whether the UK gets a hard or soft Brexit, the report suggests, cities that are doing economically well – predominantly in the south of England – would be hit the most directly and the hardest.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Planner - Brexit will hit southern UK cities hardest – report

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Aberdeen Evening Express

Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

A new report today named Aberdeen as the UK city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit. London and Edinburgh also ranked in the top 10 list compiled by researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics. They analysed the potential impact of both a “hard” and “soft” Brexit on British cities in the 10 years following the implementation of new trade deals with the EU.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Aberdeen Evening Express - Aberdeen will be hit hardest by Brexit deals

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Commonspace

Brexit will hit Aberdeen harder than any other city in UK, report says

Research done by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics and the Centre for Cities predicted an economic downturn of 3.7 per cent for Aberdeen and 2.7 per cent in Edinburgh in the event of a hard Brexit. For a soft Brexit, the report expects the drop off to be 2.1 per cent for Aberdeen and 1.4 per cent in Edinburgh.

 

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Commonspace - Brexit will hit Aberdeen harder than any other city in UK, report says

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bristol Post

Bristol to be one of the UK's cities worst hit by Brexit

The joint Centre for Cities and Centre for Economic Performance study predicts that Bristol’s economic output will decrease by up to 2.6 per cent – the 11th worst-hit city in the country. However, the report also states that Bristol will be well equipped to weather the downturn, due to its skilled and adaptable workforce. Published today, the report compares the fall in economic output of 63 cities across the UK depending on whether central government opts for a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Bristol Post - Bristol to be one of the UK's cities worst hit by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Politics

Here are the places in the UK that will be hit hardest by Brexit

Brexit will hit Scottish oil capital Aberdeen the hardest of all Britain’s cities, with London also ranking highly and facing a medium-term blow to economic output of as much as 2.6 percent, academics at the London School of Economics said. The researchers estimated that output in U.K. cities -- using a measure called gross value added -- will decline 2.3 percent on average, assuming a hard Brexit in which Britain trades with the European Union under World Trade Organization rules and tariffs. The drop under a soft Brexit, with a negotiated zero-tariff free-trade area but an increase in border controls and customs checks, was projected to be 1.2 percent lower.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
Bloomberg Politics - Here are the places in the UK that will be hit hardest by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog

CEP study: the UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (working with the Centre for Cities think tank) has carried out a study shedding light upon the local economic impact of Brexit. Henry G. Overman writes that it is the richer cities, predominantly in the south of England, that will be hit hardest by Brexit, with this effect particularly apparent in areas specialised in services.

Our research (with Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin) looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a ‘soft’ and a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities, and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
LSE EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) blog - CEP study: the UK areas that will be hit most (and least) by Brexit

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Wiltshire

(06:01:57)

Snippet: News that Swindon could be one of the cities worst hit by Brexit
Click to open

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

RES (Royal Economic Society) Newsletter

Conference Report 2017 'Divided we fall'

Perhaps the public knew that Brexit would drain their wallets, but voted for it anyway. Sometimes it’s not the economy, stupid. But Simon Wren-Lewis, of Oxford University, rubbished this idea, pointing out that those who voted for Brexit said they were unwilling to pay to reduce immigration. Instead, people seemed misinformed. Not only did those who voted to leave the EU think that they would be no worse off as a result, they thought that lower immigration would improve their access to public services. The problem, Mr Wren-Lewis argued, was with the media. Dismissing a large fraction as producers of propoganda, he reserved most disappointment for the BBC. It failed to communicate the consensus among economists, he said, treating it as opinion rather than knowledge. Swati Dhingra, of the London School of Economics, agreed, saying that the BBC’s quest to generate balance gave the false impression that there was a meaningful debate between economists. (Depressingly, she noted that this false balance had oozed into policymaking, as select committees are being stacked with pro-Brexit voices.)

Breakfast means breakfast

Amid the pastries, the presentations and the self-flagellation, it might have been easy to forget what the point of it all. An article in The Independent, previewing the conference, and highlighted by Paul Johnson on the first day of the conference, provided a helpful reminder. ‘Economics research can really improve people’s lives’, wrote Hamish McRae. While the public associates economics with GDP and abstract equations, much of the research presented at the conference was focused on how to make people’s lives better. Examples I saw included a paper presented by Christine Farquharson of the IFS, which suggested that free school breakfasts are a cheap way to help children do better in school. A panel discussion on re-skilling the UK between Steve Machin, Kirabo Jackson, Richard Burgess and Sandra McNally tossed around tax credits for investment in skills and training, a plea for more thinking about teacher quality, and from Kirabo Jackson, to think about the education system as a whole, rather than separate, substitutable stages. Football scheduling was on the list too: boys perform worse in exams when they coincide with international football tournaments.


Related Links:
RES (Royal Economic Society) Newsletter - Conference Report 2017 'Divided we fall'

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Scottish Sun

BREX HIT New report names Aberdeen as UK city predicted to be worst-hit by so-called hard Brexit

A NEW report has named Aberdeen as the UK city predicted to be the worst-hit by a so-called hard Brexit. Edinburgh also ranked in the top 10 list compiled by researchers at the think tank Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Scottish Sun - BREX HIT New report names Aberdeen as UK city predicted to be worst-hit by so-called hard Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

i paper

New study finds towns in South hit worst after Brexit

Towns and cities in the South of England will be hit hardest by Britain’s exit from Europe, according to a study that overturns assumptions that poorer areas of the UK will suffer the most. Researchers at the Centre for Cities think-tank and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics found that all British cities are set to see a drop in economic output, regardless of whether the Brexit deal is “hard” or “soft”, because of the predicted rise in the costs of trade.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
i paper - New study finds towns in South hit worst after Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times (Scotland)

Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

Aberdeen and Edinburgh are the cities set to take the biggest financial hit when the UK leaves the European Union, according to a think tank that predicts a downturn in trade even if ministers strike a “soft Brexit” deal.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
The Times (Scotland) - Aberdeen and Edinburgh ‘to be hit hardest by Brexit'

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

SERC blog

The local economic impacts of Brexit

Article by Henry Overman

I've been working with colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (Swati Dhingra and Steve Machin) and the Centre for Cities (Naomi Clayton) to take a first look at the local economic impacts of Brexit. You can read the more technical CEP piece here and the less technical CfC piece here. The research looks at the difference in predicted effects across all Local Authority Areas and across Primary Urban Areas under a 'soft' and a 'hard' Brexit scenario (the former involves zero tariffs, but increased non-tariff barriers with the EU, the latter involves non-zero tariffs and even higher non-tariff barriers). It also provides some initial analysis on whether these predicted impacts are likely to exacerbate or alleviate existing disparities and looks at how the predicted economic impacts of Brexit correlate with voting patterns from the referendum.

Related publications

‘The Local Economic Effects of Brexit’, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry Overman, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.10, July 2017.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf

‘Brexit, Trade and the Economic Impacts on UK Cities’, Naomi Clayton and Henry Overman, Centre for Cities briefing, July 2017.

http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf


Related Links:
SERC blog - The local economic impacts of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC News

Aberdeen ‘worst hit' by hard Brexit, experts predict

Aberdeen could be the city worst hit by falling economic output due to a "hard" Brexit, experts have predicted.

A new report from the Centre for Cities and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said all cities would see a fall in output due to increasing trade costs. Aberdeen and Edinburgh were both ranked among the ten most affected cities. However the study said both cities are also among the best-placed to respond to any predicted economic turbulence.


Related Links:
BBC News - Aberdeen ‘worst hit' by hard Brexit, experts predict

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade CEP Urban and Spatial Programme

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Henry Overman webpage


News Posted: 27/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The State of Working Britain blog

Is there a public sector pay premium?

Article by Jonathan Wadsworth

The issue of public sector pay went centre-stage recently in the debate over whether to lift the public sector pay cap. Presumably one of the key factors, alongside where the revenue to pay for any uplift would come from, would be whether public sector salaries had fallen behind those in the private sector which could make it harder to recruit, retain and motivate staff. The problem is how to measure any public sector pay gap. Because public sector jobs often have different characteristics from those in the private sector (there are relatively more graduate jobs in the public sector for example) a simple comparison of average pay between the public and private sector can be misleading.

Related links

The State of Working Britain blog webpage:  http://stateofworkingbritain.blogspot.co.uk/


Related Links:
The State of Working Britain blog - Is there a public sector pay premium?

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 25/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wall Street Journal

Board Is Cited In Bank's Collapse

Snippet: “In Europe, you have 28 different banking systems, which were created nationally under different mandates,” said Tom Kirchmaier, deputy director of corporate governance at the

London School of Economics.

[No link available]


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 25/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Companies risk fines for labour abuses lower on supply chain

Big retailers and construction companies may be fined for labour abuses committed by smaller firms further down the supply chain, the government’s first labour enforcement tsar has suggested. Unveiling his new strategy, David Metcalf — appointed in January to lead a campaign against abuses in the labour market — suggested it was time for companies to take more responsibility for illegal practices among their contractors, such as minimum wage violations.


Related Links:
Financial Times - Companies risk fines for labour abuses lower on supply chain

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 25/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

JamesACox blog

Productivity and robots

In a new study from London’s Center for Economic Research [sic], the analysis offered by George Graetz and Guy Michaels of Uppsala University and the London School of Economics, respectively, offers some of the first rigorous macroeconomic research and finds that industrial robots have been a substantial driver of labor productivity and economic growth.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015

 


Related Links:
JamesACox blog - Productivity and robots

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 24/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC Radio 4

Analysis - The Minimum Wage: too much of a good thing?

Professor Stephen Machin took part in this programme about the minimum wage.

Has the initial success of the minimum wage meant politicians have extended the policy to damaging levels? All the major political parties agree: the measure has been a success, and in the 2017 election all promised substantial rises in the rate by 2020. The Conservatives are aiming for a £9 national living wage by the end of the decade, and not to be outdone, Labour promised £10 for all but the under-18s. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies, asks why left and right have both adopted this once controversial policy. And could the current bidding war of big increases undermine the positive effects it has had over its eighteen-year history?


Related Links:
BBC Radio 4 - Analysis - The Minimum Wage: too much of a good thing?

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 24/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Research on the wage and employment impact of refugees shows modest or no harmful effects on native workers

Sudden inflows of refugees have been shown to have little or no impact on native wages, but recent research has challenged this consensus, using instrumental variables to show uniformly large detrimental effects. This column argues that these new results were due to problems with the strategy used and, in the case of the Mariel boatlift, the composition of the sample. Correcting for these flaws, the impact of immigration on average native-born workers remains small and inconsistent, with no evidence to show a large detrimental impact on less-educated workers.

Related links

Jennifer Hunt, Rutgers and Visiting Academic to CEP:  http://economics.rutgers.edu/people/296-hunt-jennifer

 


Related Links:
Vox - Research on the wage and employment impact of refugees shows modest or no harmful effects on native workers

The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results

CEP Labour Markets


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Source – poverty + inequality

The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling conflicting results – Centre for Economic Performance (LSE)

An influential strand of research has tested for the effects of immigration on natives’ wages and employment using exogenous refugee supply shocks as natural experiments. Several studies have reached conflicting conclusions about the effects of noted refugee waves such as the Mariel Boatlift in Miami and post-Soviet refugees to Israel. We show that conflicting findings on the effects of the Mariel Boatlift can be explained by a large difference in the pre- and post-Boatlift racial composition in subsamples of the Current Population Survey extracts. This compositional change is specific to Miami, unrelated to the Boatlift, and arises from selecting small subsamples of workers. We also show that conflicting findings on the labor market effects of other important refugee waves are caused by spurious correlation between the instrument and the endogenous variable introduced by applying a common divisor to both. As a whole, the evidence from refugee waves reinforces the existing consensus that the impact of immigration on average native-born workers is small, and fails to substantiate claims of large detrimental impacts on workers with less than high school.

Source:  Clemens, Michael A. and Hunt, Jennifer. “The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling conflicting results.” Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. CEPDP1491. July 2017.

Related publications

The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results Michael A. Clemens and Jennifer Hunt, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper NO.1491, July 2017

 

Related links

Jennifer Hunt, Rutgers and Visiting Academic to CEP:  http://economics.rutgers.edu/people/296-hunt-jennifer

 


Related Links:
Source – poverty + inequality - The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling conflicting results – Centre for Economic Performance (LSE)

The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results

CEP Labour Markets


News Posted: 21/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Hatcher+ blog

How medieval accountants and AI created the jobless future

Graph credit: Graetz and Michaels, “Robots at Work" - taken from the Brookings Institute article located here- which manages to interpret data from the Graetz and Michaels study rather too positively, I think.


Related Links:
Hatcher+ blog - How medieval accountants and AI created the jobless future

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 19/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit blog

Post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals are likely to favour graduates

Businesses that rely on low-skilled EU labour may face hiring difficulties, writes Jonathan Wadsworth. He argues that post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals will probably favour graduates.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=wadsworth


Related Links:
LSE Brexit blog - Post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals are likely to favour graduates

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 18/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Schools Week

Education has ‘done nothing' to improve social mobility

Education has “not done anything” to improve social mobility and has made inequality worse, according to the education economist Stephen Machin. Speaking at a debate held by the Sutton Trust on Wednesday in central London, Machin said education had been a “dequaliser” because it benefited rich pupils more. “Education has not been the great leveller. It’s either done nothing for social mobility, or it has reinforced existing inequalities.” Time at school strengthened the link between pupils and their family backgrounds, said Machin, a professor at the London School of Economics, meaning more rich pupils ended up in higher education. He also cited the OECD’s finding in 2012 that in 20 developed countries, only young people in the UK and US had as poor literacy and numeracy skills as their parents’ generation.

Related links

Stephen Machin CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=machin

 


Related Links:
Schools Week - Education has ‘done nothing' to improve social mobility

CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 16/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Roboteer-tokyo.com (Japan)

'Employment and wages increase rather than introducing robots' ... International Robot Federation Reports

IFR quoted OECD's research results. Companies that introduced innovative technology said they are more productive than 2-10 times more than companies that do not. Also cited a study by Graetz and Michaels published in 2015. Explaining that industrial robots contributed about 10% to GDP growth in 17 European countries between 1993 and 2007.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015


Related Links:
Roboteer-tokyo.com (Japan) - 'Employment and wages increase rather than introducing robots' ... International Robot Federation Reports

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 13/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP on Twitter

Shadow Secretary of State for Education Angela Rayner MP @AngelaRayner retweeted LSE: 'Education has not been the great leveller – it has actually reinforced existent inequalities,' says Prof Stephen Machin @s_machin_ of LSE'

Related article

Sunday 16 July

Schools Week

Education has ‘done nothing’ to improve social mobility

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/education-has-done-nothing-to-improve-social-mobility/

Related links

Stephen Machin CEP publications webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/author.asp?author=machin


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 12/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Project Syndicate

A new course for economic liberalism

Research by Cesar Hidalgo and his colleagues at MIT reveals that, in countries where sectoral concentration has declined in recent decades, such as South Korea, income inequality has fallen. In those where sectoral concentration has intensified, such as Norway, inequality has risen. A similar trend can be seen at the organizational level. A recent study by Erling Bath, Alex Bryson, James Davis, and Richard Freeman showed that the diffusion of individual pay since the 1970s is associated with pay differences between, not within, companies. The Stanford economists Nicholas Bloom and David Price confirmed this finding, and argue that virtually the entire increase in income inequality in the US is rooted in the growing gap in average wages paid by firms.


Related Links:
Project Syndicate - A new course for economic liberalism

Firming Up Inequality

It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the US

CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Nick Bloom webpage


News Posted: 12/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

The core of the REVOLUTION (Korea)

‘Robots introduced', contributing to competitiveness and job creation

According to the report of "The Impact of Robots on Productivity, Employment and Jobs" published by the International Robot Federation (IFR) recently issued by the Korea Robot Industry Promotion Agency (President Park Ki-Han) Productivity, and job creation.

IFR cited the results of the OECD and found that companies that introduced innovative technologies were 2 to 10 times more productive than those who did not, and cited the study by Graetz and Michaels, published in 2015, In fact, robots have contributed 10% to GDP growth in 17 countries in Europe from 1993 to 2007.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015


Related Links:
The core of the REVOLUTION (Korea) - ‘Robots introduced', contributing to competitiveness and job creation

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 11/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP mentions on Twitter

Mike Gapes MP (Labour) retweeted LSE CEP

'Since 1993, rate of home ownership among Brits aged 20-29 has declined from 50% to only 20%, @CEP_LSE research… https://t.co/UiapxN8Rkf'.

 

  1. Mike Gapes Retweeted

Romesh Vaitilingam‏ @econromesh Jul 8

Since 1993, rate of home ownership among Brits aged 20-29 has declined from 50% to only 20%, @CEP_LSE research http://cep.lse.ac.uk/centrepiece/abstract.asp?index=5496 …pic.twitter.com/V6WO7SmVDw

18 replies 250 retweets 164 likes

Reply

18

Retweet

250

Retweeted

250

Like

164

Liked

164

 

Related publications

Home ownership and social mobility Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin. Article in CentrePiece Volume 22, Issue 2, Summer 2017

 


Related Links:
CEP mentions on Twitter - Mike Gapes MP (Labour) retweeted LSE CEP

CEP Labour Markets

Jo Blanden webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 09/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Forbes

Jobs up, unemployment rate up, here's why US economy has more room to grow

At which point a little thumbnail sketch of what we're worried about in the US labour market. Traditionally the US has had very little long term unemployment. Sure, the general rate rose in recessions, fell in the booms, but there has always been a difference with the European labour markets as my old professor, Richard Layard, points out: The evidence for the first proposition is everywhere around us. For example, Europe has a notorious unemployment problem. But if you break down unemployment into short term (under a year) and long-term, you find that short-term unemployment is almost the same in Europe as in the U.S. – around 4% of the workforce. But in Europe there are another 4% who have been out of work for over a year, compared with almost none in the United States. The most obvious explanation for this is that in the U.S. unemployment benefits run out after 6 months, while in most of Europe they continue for many years or indefinitely.

Related publications

‘Welfare-to-work and the New Deal’, Richard Layard, Centre for Economic Performance Occasional Paper No.15, January 2001

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/occasional/OP015.pdf


Related Links:
Forbes - Jobs up, unemployment rate up, here's why US economy has more room to grow

CEP Labour Markets

Richard Layard webpage


News Posted: 07/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Blog-illusio.com

Comment la transmission de la politique monétaire américaine a changé au cours du temps/How the transmission of U.S. monetary policy has changed over time

Several empirical studies have sought to determine whether recent technological advances have reduced the aggregate demand for work or hindered wage growth. For example, Terry Gregory, Anna Salomons and Ulrich Zierahn (2016) felt that the negative effects of automating routine tasks on the medium-skilled jobs in Europe were offset by job creation through increased demand. By observing 17 European countries, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels (2015) believe that the diffusion of industrial robots has stimulated labour productivity, added value, wages and overall factor productivity; It did not significantly affect the duration of the work, except perhaps for low-or medium-skilled workers. More pessimistic, Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo (2017) conclude on their side that robots can reduce employment and wages: in the United States, the addition of an industrial robot for a thousand workers reduced the employment-to-population ratio from 0.18 to 0.34 percentage points and salaries from 0.25 to 0.5%. Consider that the findings to which these studies are successful are, however, very difficult to generalise. Indeed, robots operate only in a limited set of industrial applications, mainly in heavy industry, or as the use of robots extends outside the industry, the impact that automation has on employment will be likely to change.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in


Related Links:
Blog-illusio.com - Comment la transmission de la politique monétaire américaine a changé au cours du temps/How the transmission of U.S. monetary policy has changed over time

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 07/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

Blog-illusio.com

La croissance de la productivité menace-t-elle l’emploi ? / Does productivity growth threaten employment?

Observing 17 European countries, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels (2015) estimate that the diffusion of industrial robots has stimulated labor productivity, value added, wages and overall factor productivity; it did not significantly affect hours of work, except perhaps for low- and medium-skilled workers. 


Related Links:
Blog-illusio.com - La croissance de la productivité menace-t-elle l’emploi ? / Does productivity growth threaten employment?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 04/07/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals will likely favour graduates

Businesses that rely on low-skilled EU labour may face hiring difficulties, writes Jonathan Wadsworth

Had things gone as most commentators expected, the UK would now be entering hard Brexit talks with the near certainty of leaving the single market and/or customs union and the consequent ending of free movement of people from the European Union. Two weeks later and that near certainty no longer seems as certain, with murmurings of a softer Brexit and the implication that allowing freer movement of labour from the EU may now be up for discussion.

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals will likely favour graduates

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 27/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE The education blog

Judith Shapiro and Steve Pischke on recommended summer reads

As has become the tradition for our last post of the academic year, we’re featuring summer reading recommendations from special people at LSE. This year, two winners of the LSESU Teaching Excellence Awards shared their picks with us.

Steve Pischke, Professor of Economics and Research Associate at the Centre for Economic Performance, Winner of LSESU Teaching Excellence Award for Research Guidance and Support

I am not sure my recent reading is all that good fare for the summer; in fact, it seems more appropriate for London’s November days. The last book I read was Walter Scheidel’s The Great Leveller, a history of inequality from the beginning of humanity to the present day. The author argues that inequality has always been increasing with the exception of periods of extreme violence: mass mobilisation warfare, bloody revolutions (the French one was too tame!), state collapse, and pandemics like the Black Death in the Middle Ages. For me this is the most provocative—and depressing—piece on inequality I have seen in a very long time, and this is a literature I follow as part of my day job. The descriptive account of what happened is most intriguing. Scheidel is weaker when he wants to be analytical and his writing does not rival the best.


Related Links:
LSE The education blog - Judith Shapiro and Steve Pischke on recommended summer reads

CEP Labour Markets CEP Wellbeing

Jörn-Steffen Pischke webpage


News Posted: 26/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

4-traders

MORGAN STANLEY : Britain's financial power already on the wane

Among the matters at stake in those talks, which began in Brussels last Monday, is whether London can maintain its status as a global hub for finance after Brexit or be forced to watch as business flows to the continent or New York. Such an exodus would jeopardise an industry responsible for nearly a 10th of the economy and some 1.1 million jobs. “There will be a lot of political pressure to get as much of the finance industry moved to the EU as possible,” said Tom Kirchmaier, a fellow in the financial-markets group at the London School of Economics. “The big question will be what the final role of the City will be in Europe.”


Related Links:
4-traders - MORGAN STANLEY : Britain's financial power already on the wane

CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 25/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Business Week

Britain's financial power is already seeping away

“There will be a lot of political pressure to get as much of the finance industry moved to the EU as possible,” said Tom Kirchmaier, a fellow in the financial-markets group at the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Bloomberg Business Week - Britain's financial power is already seeping away

CEP Community CEP Labour Markets

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 23/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg Business Week

Britain’s Financial Power Is Already Seeping Away

“There will be a lot of political pressure to get as much of the finance industry moved to the EU as possible,” said Tom Kirchmaier, a fellow in the financial-markets group at the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
Bloomberg Business Week - Britain’s Financial Power Is Already Seeping Away

CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Tom Kirchmaier webpage


News Posted: 23/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Time

The continuing urgency of the Grenfell Tower inferno

In the days since the fire, Grenfell Tower has been held up as a tragic symbol of the social ills facing Britain: a detached political class; nearly seven years of a government-led austerity program that has sliced through the country’s welfare state; rising socioeconomic disparities; and a hastening decline in living standards. The U.K. has seen the biggest drop in average real wages in OECD countries except for Greece, according to an analysis by the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance.

Related publications

‘Real wages and living standards in the UK’. Rui Costa and Stephen Machin, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. 036, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf


Related Links:
Time - The continuing urgency of the Grenfell Tower inferno

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 23/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

24 heures

La question des Européens au Royaume-Uni/ The question of Europeans in the United Kingdom

BrexitAlors que les négociations sur le Brexit s'ouvrent lundi, quel sort attend les plus de 3,6 millions d'Européens au Royaume-Uni?/ BrexitAlors that the negotiations on the Brexit open Monday, what fate awaits the more than 3.6 million Europeans in the UK?

Some also accuse European immigrants of having contributed to lowering wages. But according to Jonathan Wadsworth, author of a report on the subject for the London School of Economics, "All studies show that immigration has no impact on the level of wages or in a very marginal way".

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf


Related Links:
24 heures - La question des Européens au Royaume-Uni/ The question of Europeans in the United Kingdom

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 19/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Will Brexit Lead to a Financial Big Bang for the EU-27?

Many commentators are throwing out numbers about the negative impact of Brexit on GDP growth and income across Europe. The Center for Economic Performance has concluded that every EU member will lose income after Brexit, but that the loss for the UK will be about twice the loss for the remaining 27 members combined. However, a lot depends (as ever when economics is involved) on what data you look at, as well as on what deals and Euro-fudge the politicians come up with in the coming months.

Also in

Eurasiareview.com http://www.eurasiareview.com/20062017-will-brexit-lead-to-financial-big-bang-for-eu-27-analysis/

Related publications
'The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards',
Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2. March 2016.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

 


Related Links:
Foreign Policy Research Institute - Will Brexit Lead to a Financial Big Bang for the EU-27?

CEP Trade CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

John Van reenen webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage


News Posted: 19/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Communist Party of Vietnam Online Newspaper

European citizens living in the UK: a priority, many worry

Some also accuse European immigrants of having contributed to lowering wages. But according to Jonathan Wadsworth, author of a report on the subject for the London School of Economics, "All studies show that immigration has no impact on the level of wages or in a very marginal way".

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf


Related Links:
Communist Party of Vietnam Online Newspaper - European citizens living in the UK: a priority, many worry

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 18/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Diario Gestión (Spain)

Los Europeos en el Reino Unido: una prioridad, muchas inquietudes/Europeans in the UK: a priority, many concerns

Another recurring argument is that immigrants lower wages, a thesis that resists analyses. "All studies show that immigration has no impact on the wage level, or has it in a very marginal way," insisted Jonathan Wadsworth, author of a study on this topic for the London School of Economics (LSE).

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf


Related Links:
Diario Gestión (Spain) - Los Europeos en el Reino Unido: una prioridad, muchas inquietudes/Europeans in the UK: a priority, many concerns

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 17/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Le Quotidien (Luxembourg)

Brexit : quel avenir pour les expatriés européens au Royaume-Uni?/What future for the European expatriates in the United Kingdom?

Some also accuse the European immigrants have contributed to depress wages. But according to Jonathan Wadsworth, author of a report on the subject for the London School of Economics, "all the studies show that immigration has no impact on the level of wages or so very marginally."

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf


Related Links:
Le Quotidien (Luxembourg) - Brexit : quel avenir pour les expatriés européens au Royaume-Uni?/What future for the European expatriates in the United Kingdom?

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 17/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Journal Dunet (France)

Les Européens au Royaume-Uni: une priorité, beaucoup d'inquiétudes/Europeans in the United Kingdom: a priority, a lot of concern

Some also accuse European immigrants of having contributed to lowering wages. But according to Jonathan Wadsworth, author of a report on the subject for the London School of Economics, "All studies show that immigration has no impact on the level of wages or in a very marginal way".

See Also:

Lemainelibre.fr (France)

Les Européens au Royaume-Uni: une priorité, beaucoup d'inquiétudes/Europeans in the United Kingdom: a priority, a lot of concern

 

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf


Related Links:
Journal Dunet (France) - Les Européens au Royaume-Uni: une priorité, beaucoup d'inquiétudes/Europeans in the United Kingdom: a priority, a lot of concern

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 17/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mdz

¡Que vienen los robots!/The robots are coming!

Of made, in one of the pioneers on the subject drawn up by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels in 2015 and in which analyzed data from 17 countries advanced from 1993 to 2007, found that, as seen in the following image, there were more increased the "density of Robotics" (i.e., the number of robots per million hours worked) increased to a greater extent both the labor productivity and value added per worker. Also the total productivity factor (TFP), as well as media workers wages did.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015


Related Links:
Mdz - ¡Que vienen los robots!/The robots are coming!

Flooded Cities

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 16/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP and latest Impact Factors

Economics Impact Factors

The latest Impact Factors have now been released and it has been a great year for Oxford University Press’s economics journals. To celebrate this success we have collated a collection of highly cited articles from a selection of our journals. This collection is freely available to be read online until the 31st December 2017.

The Quarterly Journal of Economics – 6.662

See:

Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment Nicholas Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts, Zhichun Jenny Ying

 

Related publications

‘Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment’, Nicholas Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts and Zhichun Jenny Ying, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1194, March 2013

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1194.pdf

 

The Review of Economic Studies – 4.030

See:

The Impact of Competition on Management Quality: Evidence from Public Hospitals  Nicholas Bloom, Carol Propper, Stephan Seiler, John Van Reenen

 

Related publications

‘The Impact of Competition on Management Quality: Evidence from Public Hospitals’, Nicholas Bloom, Carol Propper, Stephan Seiler and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.983, November 2014

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0983.pdf

 

Journal of the European Economic Association – 2.758

See:

Unemployed but Optimistic: Optimal Insurance Design with Biased Beliefs Johannes Spinnewijn

 


Related Links:
CEP and latest Impact Factors - Economics Impact Factors

Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment

CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Nick Bloom webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Johannes Spinnewijn webpage


News Posted: 16/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Politikon (Spain)

¡Que vienen los robots!/The robots are coming!

In fact, in one of the pioneering works on the topic developed by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels in 2015 and analyzing data from 17 advanced countries from 1993 to 2007, find that, as seen in the following image, where more increased "robotic density" (ie, the number of robots per million hours worked) Increased both labour productivity and added value per worker. So did the total productivity of the factors (TFP), as well as the average salaries of the workers. This increasingly accused use of robots leads them to estimate that the robotization has contributed more than one tenth to the added growth during those 15 years, a negligible figure.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015


Related Links:
Politikon (Spain) - ¡Que vienen los robots!/The robots are coming!

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 16/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Politikon (Spain)

¡Que vienen los robots!/The robots are coming!

In fact, in one of the pioneering works on the topic developed by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels in 2015 and analyzing data from 17 advanced countries from 1993 to 2007, find that, as seen in the following image, where more increased "robotic density" (ie, the number of robots per million hours worked) Increased both labour productivity and added value per worker

 

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015

/


Related Links:
Politikon (Spain) - ¡Que vienen los robots!/The robots are coming!

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 16/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

UniteWorks – Unite the Union

Unite warns of deepening Tory ‘wage pain' as average wages continue to fall

Theresa May and the Tories’ ‘wage pain’ is leaving millions of people struggling to make ends meet warned Britain’s largest union, Unite as official figures out today (Wednesday 14 June) showed a deepening wage squeeze. Official labour market figures out today showed that average earnings, excluding bonuses, fell in real terms by 0.6 per cent compared to a year earlier. The figures follow an analysis by the London School of Economics of OECD data showing the UK had suffered the biggest drop in average wages between 2007 and 2015 of any developed country except austerity-ravaged Greece.

Related publications

‘Real wages and living standards in the UK’. Rui Costa and Stephen Machin, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. 036, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf


Related Links:
UniteWorks – Unite the Union - Unite warns of deepening Tory ‘wage pain' as average wages continue to fall

CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 14/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

El Universal (Spain)

Europeos en Reino Unido tienen una prioridad y muchas inquietudes

Brexit supporters replicate that immigrants ' additional pressure on housing, schools and hospitals is not considered. Another recurring argument is that immigrants lower wages, a thesis that resists analyses. "All studies show that immigration has no impact on the salary level, or has it in a very marginal way," insisted Jonathan Wadsworth, author of a study on this topic for the London School of Economics.


Related Links:
El Universal (Spain) - Europeos en Reino Unido tienen una prioridad y muchas inquietudes

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 11/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

dziennik.pl (Poland)

Bukowski I Novokmet: Bogaci stali sie jeszcze bogatsi. Udato nam sie dogonic Niemcy. Niestety


Related Links:
dziennik.pl (Poland) - Bukowski I Novokmet: Bogaci stali sie jeszcze bogatsi. Udato nam sie dogonic Niemcy. Niestety

CEP Labour Markets

Pawel Bukowski webpage


News Posted: 10/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Geschichte der Gegenwart (Germany)

May will Regierung bilden – Brexit-Verhandlungen ab 19. Juni

In total, the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) calculates, it would be best for the British economy to remain part of the EU’s common market.

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam (Eds), CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

Related links

Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

 

 


Related Links:
Geschichte der Gegenwart (Germany) - May will Regierung bilden – Brexit-Verhandlungen ab 19. Juni

CEP Education and Skills CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 10/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Berliner Zeitung (Germany)

Horrorszenario „No Deal': Keine Brexit-Einigung wäre für die britische Wirtschaft fatal/Horror scenario „No Deal' no Brexit agreement would be fatal for the British economy

erall, the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) calculates, it would be best for the British economy to remain in spite of Brexit part of the EU's common market. This, too, would incur costs, but in the case of a no-deal scenario, these costs would double. The British trade with the EU would break by 40 percent over the next ten years. The overall effect amounted to just under three percent of British per capita income. Every household on the island would cost about 1 900 pounds.

Also in:

Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger

Furcht vor dem Desaster; BREXIT Großbritannien droht eine schwere Rezession, wenn es keine Einigung mit der EU gibt

In total, the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) calculates, it would be best for the British economy to remain in spite of Brexit part of the EU's common market. This, too, would incur costs, but in the case of a no-deal scenario, these costs would double. The British trade with the EU would break by 40 percent over the next ten years. The overall effect amounted to just under three percent of British per capita income. Every household on the island would cost about 1900 pounds.

http://www.ksta.de/wirtschaft/brexit-furcht-vor-dem-desaster-27764024

 

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam (Eds), CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

                                         

Related links

Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp


Related Links:
Berliner Zeitung (Germany) - Horrorszenario „No Deal': Keine Brexit-Einigung wäre für die britische Wirtschaft fatal/Horror scenario „No Deal' no Brexit agreement would be fatal for the British economy

CEP Education and Skills CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 08/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Professional Adviser

The evidence for Brexit and other key election issues - LSE

The London School of Economics (LSE) has published a report assessing all of the party manifestos and how respective policies will affect key voter issues.

Intended to be "objective, brief and non-technical", the report by the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance looks at the evidence on the most-talked-about policies, including education, health, immigration, industrial strategy, living standards, regional policy and Brexit.

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam (Eds), CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

 Related links

Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

                                        


Related Links:
Professional Adviser - The evidence for Brexit and other key election issues - LSE

CEP Education and Skills CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 08/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The National (Scotland)

Letters: BBC debates reveal how little they've progressed

SOME time ago Paxman's questions to Mrs May exposed effectively how ineffective she had been at the Home Office in dealing with immigration. She could not explain how Conservative policy has completely failed in this area (even to reduce non-European immigrants). So I will explore the possible causes. As we have near full employment one must agree with Jonathan Wadsworth at London School of Economics that there is no statistical impact of immigrants on wages of UK workers. Scottish farmers have claimed that they can't get local workers for seasonal work, so need immigrants, and in Scotland EU nationals make up 3.4 per cent of the population but 4.5 per cent of the workforce. So they are vital and skilled workers. Now if industry (having benefited from five years of corporation tax concessions) is simply not training local workers then it's necessary for the Government to tax industry and spend major sums of money on training. And if years of austerity have not created a mood of business confidence in the UK (but instead has reduced consumer purchasing power) then perhaps the economy needs government stimulus to take us through the uncertainty which our changing trade relationship with Europe and other countries will create. Unless government spends a lot of money on skills training and infrastructure it is most unlikely that we will not see significant falls in immigration. So in five years time Mrs May will be facing the same questions from Paxman with the same lack of answers. Andrew Vass, Edinburgh

Related publications

‘Immigration and the UK Economy’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. 039, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

 


Related Links:
The National (Scotland) - Letters: BBC debates reveal how little they've progressed

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 07/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Reason.com – July 2017 issue

Are robots going to steal our jobs?

In 2015, economists Georg Graetz of Uppsala University and Guy Michaels of the London School of Economics analyzed the effects of industrial robots on employment in 17 different countries between 1993 and 2007. In contrast to the Acemoglu and Restrepo study, "We find a negative effect of robots on low-skilled workers' employment," says Michaels in an interview, "but no significant effect on overall employment." Their study also found that the increases in the number of robots boosted annual economic growth by 0.37 percent.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs’, Georg Graetz, Guy Michaels, Article in CentrePiece  Volume 20, Issue 1, Summer 2015


Related Links:
Reason.com – July 2017 issue - Are robots going to steal our jobs?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Guy Michaels webpage

Georg Graetz webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Manifesto economics

For the first time in years, UK voters have a real choice between economic models

The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has published a series of election analyses, looking at wages and living standards, health and social care, education and skills, and inequality between UK regions.

Related publications

‘#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election’, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No. EA044, June 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea044.pdf

 

Related links

Urban and Spatial Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/urban/default.asp

 


Related Links:
Financial Times - Manifesto economics

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Rui Costa webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Ralf Martin webpage

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Henry Overman webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Anna Valero webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Gill Wyness webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Socialist Worker

Migrant works say – ‘Don't blame us for low pay'

The London School of Economics’ (LSE) Centre for Economic Performance last year found that “the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers.”

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf


Related Links:
Socialist Worker - Migrant works say – ‘Don't blame us for low pay'

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Advertiser (Adelaide, Australia)

John Newton: Labour set to remain tarnished an divided while newly enthroned May will be mistress of all she surveys

Mrs May still seems to suggest that immigration should be kept under 100,000 a year while being just about the only person in the country who thinks that number should include students. Damage to university numbers is inevitable. Student admission rates are already lower this year. Her incapacity to deliver on such a KPI when Home Secretary adds the accusation of incompetence to that of pigheadedness. And is this a wise policy anyway? Recent research suggests that hitting a target of 100,000 will mean a fiscal deficit 30 per cent higher by 2066. Immigrants are regularly proven to add value and are not the burden on the state that many believe them to be. A recent report from the Centre for Economic Performance correlates the drop in immigrant numbers to falls, not rises, in living standards.

 

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.5, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf


Related Links:
The Advertiser (Adelaide, Australia) - John Newton: Labour set to remain tarnished an divided while newly enthroned May will be mistress of all she surveys

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Huffington Post

Woman's Hour: Emily Thornberry ‘Finds brief in handbag' after last-minute appearance in place of ‘unwell' Diane Abbot

Woman’s Hour: Emily Thornberry ‘Finds brief in handbag’ after last-minute appearance in place of ‘unwell’ Diane Abbot

Rudd also claimed that cutting numbers of police officers since 2010 has led to a reduction in crime. The Centre for Economic Performance has suggested a reduction in crime may be due to both improved productivity within the police and fewer people turning to crime in the first place


Related Links:
Huffington Post - Woman's Hour: Emily Thornberry ‘Finds brief in handbag' after last-minute appearance in place of ‘unwell' Diane Abbot

Fighting Crime: Can the Police do more with less?

CEP Labour Markets

Brian Bell webpage


News Posted: 06/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

RT (Russia)

British wages in free fall, only crisis-hit Greece is worse in OECD

According to a London School of Economics (LSE) paper, Brits were the worst off when it came to their real wages, with pay falling by more than five percent between 2007 and 2015.

Researchers for the prestigious British university also found that all types of British earners, with the exception of pensioners and minimum wage workers, were no better off today than they were in 2008.


Related Links:
RT (Russia) - British wages in free fall, only crisis-hit Greece is worse in OECD

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Independent

The chart that shows UK workers have had the worst wage performance in the OECD except Greece

The UK has suffered the biggest drop in average real wages of any OECD country except depression-wracked Greece, according to a pre-general election analysis published by the London School of Economics.

The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) uses OECD data to show that average wages for British workers, when adjusted for inflation, fell by more than 5 per cent between 2007 and 2015..

Related publications

'Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK', Rui Costa, Stephen Machin, CEP Election Analysis Paper No' CEPEA036: , May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf

'The Return of Falling Real Wages' David Blanchflower, Rui Costa, Stephen Machin, CEP report, May 2017 

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/rwu006.pdf

 


Related Links:
Independent - The chart that shows UK workers have had the worst wage performance in the OECD except Greece

CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 05/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

Sunday Herald (Scotland)

Anton Muscatelli: Immigrationisn't making us poorer – but scaremongering about it might

Firstly, there is simply no evidence that EU immigration has impacted negatively on the living standards of UK workers. A new study by the London School of Economics (LSE) has shown that there is no apparent link between changes in the real wages of UK nationals and changes in immigration – wages of UK-born workers changed at much the same rate in areas with high immigration as in areas with a low change in immigration.


Related Links:
Sunday Herald (Scotland) - Anton Muscatelli: Immigrationisn't making us poorer – but scaremongering about it might

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 04/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Election uncertainties to be followed by many more

The election uncertainty will give way to new uncertainties. Two new reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics highlight some of the dangers. On immigration, the CEP concludes that cutting it significantly will result in a lowering of living standards for the UK-born population, with the extent of the fall depending on the extent of the drop in net migration. The May target of “tens of thousands” will leave us all poorer. The report, on the CEP website, is a good mythbuster. Areas of high EU immigration have not seen UK-born workers displaced or suffered from weaker wage growth. The route to reduced living standards is partly via the fact that migrant workers pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and use of public services. The CEP’s other report looks at something that really worries businesses — the prime minister’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” rhetoric. CEP economists Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, using what they describe as a state-of-the-art trade model based on comprehensive data, say that leaving the EU without a deal would result in a 40% drop in exports to the EU over 10 years and a 3% fall in GDP per capita. Add in dynamic effects and the medium-term economic effects could be double those arising from the model, the authors say.


Related Links:
The Times - Election uncertainties to be followed by many more

Brexit and the UK Economy

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Swati Dhingra webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 04/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Economic Voice

Green Party: We will stand up for free movement

A recent study by the London School of Economics has blown apart a number of key myths around migration, saying: “Immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and use of public services. UK-born individuals, on average, take out more in welfare and benefits than they pay in taxes. So immigrants help to reduce the budget deficit. There is little evidence that immigrants have negative effects on crime, education, health or social housing.”


Related Links:
The Economic Voice - Green Party: We will stand up for free movement

Immigration and the UK Economy

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 02/06/2017      [Back to the Top]

National Affairs - Findings

Getting the job done

Includes in the roundup: ‘Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?’, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, American Economic Review, May 2017

Abstract:  Since the early 1990s, recoveries from recessions in the US have been plagued by weak employment growth. We investigate whether a similar problem afflicts other developed economies, and whether technology is a culprit. We study recoveries from 71 recessions in 28 industries and 17 countries from 1970-2011. We find that though GDP recovered more slowly after recent recessions, employment did not. Industries that used more routine tasks, and those more exposed to robotization, did not recently experience slower employment recoveries. Finally, middle-skill employment did not recover more slowly after recent recessions, and this pattern was no different in routine-intensive industries.

Related publications

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries? Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece 22 (1) Spring 2017


Related Links:
National Affairs - Findings - Getting the job done

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 31/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Market News

UK reality check: BOE wage growth forecasts implausible: CEP

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee claims that nominal wage growth will return close to 4% by 2019 are "rather implausible and over-optimistic", according to two respected academics at the Centre for Economic Performance. Interviewed for the latest MNI Reality Check, Professor Stephen Machin, Director of the CEP, along with Rui Costa, a fellow researcher at the body, said that existing pressures would not alleviate enough over the near-term horizon to justify the MPC's prediction laid out in the Bank's latest Inflation Report, published earlier this month.


Related Links:
Market News - UK reality check: BOE wage growth forecasts implausible: CEP

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 30/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

iNews

Political pledges to cut immigration ‘will mean a drop in living standards'

The LSE study also states that immigration is not to blame for lower pay and prospects of low skilled workers. Academics behind the research said lower pay and prospects for UK workers was the result of the 2008 economic crash rather than immigration. Professor Jonathan Wadsworth, author of the report, said: “It is very difficult to find much evidence that immigration has had a negative effects on many sectors of the economy.

“Any adverse experiences of UK-born workers with regard to jobs and wages are much more closely associated with the biggest economic crash for more than 80 years.”

Related publications

Election Analyses series; ‘Immigration and the UK Economy’ Jonathan Wadsworth. May 2017. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea039.pdf

Related links

CEP Election Analyses series http://cep.lse.ac.uk/election2017/default.asp


Related Links:
iNews - Political pledges to cut immigration ‘will mean a drop in living standards'

Immigration and the Access to Social Housing in the UK

CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 30/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Conversation UK

Cut immigration and the UK's economic prospects will just get worse – here's why

Jonathan Wadsworth and colleagues at the London School of Economics showed convincingly that across UK local authorities from 2008-15, EU immigrants had no statistically significant impact on the real wages of UK-born workers. Neither did it affect the job prospects of low-skilled UK-born workers.

Related publications

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 ‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’ Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen. May 2016.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

 

Related links

CEP Brexit 2016 webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/brexit/


Related Links:
The Conversation UK - Cut immigration and the UK's economic prospects will just get worse – here's why

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 26/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 132, Issue 2, May 2017

‘Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?'

Article by Ross Levine; Yona Rubinstein

ISSN 0033-5533, EISSN 1531-4650.

 

Related publications

‘In brief...'Smart and illicit': the making of a successful entrepreneur’
Ross Levine and Yona Rubinstein. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 2, Autumn 2013


Related Links:
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 132, Issue 2, May 2017 - ‘Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?'

In brief...'Smart and illicit': the making of a successful entrepreneur

CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Yona Rubinstein webpage


News Posted: 25/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

ccrmagazine.com

Centre for Economic Performance report on UK pay and living standards

Higher price inflation as a result of sterling’s depreciation following the vote to leave the EU, coupled with nominal wage growth stuck at a norm of 2% a year, means that once again the UK faces falling real wages, threatening family living standards.  A new report from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) – the first in a series of background briefings on key policy issues in the June 2017 UK general election – outlines what’s been happening to real wages and living standards, and considers relevant policies in the parties’ election manifestos.


Related Links:
ccrmagazine.com - Centre for Economic Performance report on UK pay and living standards

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Stephen Machin webpage

Rui Costa webpage


News Posted: 22/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC

Radio 5 Live (09:25:01)

Snippet: ... artifice follows on life it is my 2nd point the question that the media should be asking the Tories there are countless countless reports the OBR the report I FF John comport system works and Worldcom this London school of economics they all say that for basically the same thing immigrants pay more into the Exchequer then they take care now and that includes public services as well so if you want to reduce immigration the question should be asked of the Tories won the launch launching their manifesto should be asked again and again and again is that this could create a black hole so the question simply is what taxes are you going to raise or what public services so you don't go because she just said how airline on people coming over here…Click to open

Related publications

‘Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK’, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

 


Related Links:
CEP Labour Markets

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 18/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Cloudland Collective

‘Robots are coming for your job!' – Liz Ross

In the period 1993-2007, Graetz and Michaels found that in 14 industries in 17 developed countries including Australia, industrial robots increase labour productivity, total factor productivity and wages. They had no significant effect on total hours worked but did impact the number of jobs. So in essence, robots did not reduce toil (hours of work) for those who had work, on the contrary. But they did lead to a loss of jobs for the unskilled and even those with some skills.  So more toil, not less hours; and more unemployment.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs’, Georg Graetz, Guy Michaels, Article in CentrePiece  Volume 20, Issue 1, Summer 2015


Related Links:
The Cloudland Collective - ‘Robots are coming for your job!' – Liz Ross

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 17/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Svenska Dagbladet Online (Sweden)

'Sanandaji vilseleder läsarna i sin bok om invandring'/'Snandaji mislead the readers of his book on immigration'

There is an extensive economic research literature on immigration and crime. Two of the international Authorities are Brian Bell (Oxford University) and Stephen Machin (LSE).   Sanandaji also refers to these two researchers with a quotation to give support to what he calls the first-order factor. But citing the text says that the social and economic cost of crime (in general) are usually estimated as high, and that each link between immigration and crime must be taken very seriously. But what Sanandaji carefully avoids mentioning is that Bell and Machin’s research indicates that the migration effect on crime is not very large (source 3).


Related Links:
Svenska Dagbladet Online (Sweden) - 'Sanandaji vilseleder läsarna i sin bok om invandring'/'Snandaji mislead the readers of his book on immigration'

Immigrant Enclaves and Crime

Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves

CEP Labour Markets

Brian Bell webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 17/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

A squeeze on wages will set the tone for whoever wins on June 8

There are three reasons to be sceptical about the Bank’s forecasts for the growth in earnings in future years, and hence the recovery in real wages. One is that unemployment may not stay as low as 4.5 per cent. Most forecasters, including the EY Item Club, which reported earlier this week, think that slower growth will mean a rise in unemployment, which could press down on the growth in wages. Second, as David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC), Rui Costa and Stephen Machin of the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) point out in a paper, The Return of Falling Real Wages, the Bank has form on overpredicting the growth in wages. Two years ago the Bank was predicting 4 per cent earnings growth for 2017. Now it expects half that rate, a 2 per cent increase in earnings which the CEP paper says is the new norm.


Related Links:
The Times - A squeeze on wages will set the tone for whoever wins on June 8

The Return of Falling Real Wages

CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 17/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Guardian

Unemployment is at its lowest since 1975, so why do people feel worse off?

One reason for the weakness of earnings growth is the ferocious squeeze on public sector pay, which – stripped of bonus payments – is rising at just 1.3% a year. A second factor is that employers are able to buy in cheap labour from overseas. Migration from other EU countries has not fallen off a cliff despite the result of last summer’s referendum: according to the Office for National Statistics, the number of non-UK nationals from the EU working in the UK rose by 171,000 to 2.32 million between the first quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. This continues a trend, which has seen the number of workers from the other 27 EU countries double since the recession of 2008-09. Finally, the nature of work seems to have changed. Work by David Blanchflower, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin has shown that earnings growth for the self-employed – who account for 15% of the workforce – has been particularly weak in recent years. People are working flat out in the gig economy but still struggling to make ends meet. The labour market has, for want of a better word, been Uberised.


Related Links:
Guardian - Unemployment is at its lowest since 1975, so why do people feel worse off?

The Return of Falling Real Wages

CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 17/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Debrief

New report suggests there's bad news on the horizon for the UK job market

David Blanchflower, a former Bank of England policymaker and a London School of Economics professor, is saying that wages are likely to remain low for several years. He’s particularly critical of how the Bank of England is handling the situation, as their forecasting for wage growth consistently expects it to revert to around 4% within 18 months which, at least for the last 10 forecasts, just hasn’t happened.

 

Related publications

‘The Return of Falling Real Wages’, David Blanchflower, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin, Real Wages Update blog No.6, May 2017

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/rwu006.pdf


Related Links:
The Debrief - New report suggests there's bad news on the horizon for the UK job market

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets

Rui Costa webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 15/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP citations

‘New Automation Technologies and Job Creation and Destruction Dynamics', Employment Policy Brief, International Labour Office p.3.

 ‘The first of these studies uses an industry-level robotics dataset to estimate the impact of the implementation of industrial robots on wages, productivity nd working hours from the 1990s to 2007 in an econometric analysis of 17 developed countries.’

Cites: Graetz, Georg; Michaels, Guy. 2015. “Robots at Work”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 8928. Bonn, Institute of Labor Economics.

 

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs’, Georg Graetz, Guy Michaels, Article in CentrePiece  Volume 20, Issue 1, Summer 2015


Related Links:
CEP citations - ‘New Automation Technologies and Job Creation and Destruction Dynamics', Employment Policy Brief, International Labour Office p.3.

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 14/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Veren of Lood (Holland)

Econmoische aanraders/Economic recommendations

Recommends:

Jobless recoveries: Exploring technology’s role – Georg Graetz, Guy Michaels - 13 mei

Recoveries from recessions in the US used to involve rapid job generation, but job growth has failed to match GDP recovery after recent US recessions. This column examines the role of technology in this and asks whether jobless recoveries are a wider problem outside of the US. In the US, industries that are more prone to technological change experienced slower job growth during recent recoveries, but it appears unlikely that modern technologies are causing jobless recoveries outside of the US. This poses a puzzle as to the nature of recent jobless US recoveries.

Related article

‘Jobless recoveries: Exploring technology’s role’, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Vox blog, 13 May

Recoveries from recessions in the US used to involve rapid job generation, but job growth has failed to match GDP recovery after recent US recessions. This column examines the role of technology in this and asks whether jobless recoveries are a wider problem outside of the US. In the US, industries that are more prone to technological change experienced slower job growth during recent recoveries, but it appears unlikely that modern technologies are causing jobless recoveries outside of the US. This poses a puzzle as to the nature of recent jobless US recoveries. 

http://voxeu.org/article/jobless-recoveries-exploring-technologys-role

 

Related publications

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries? Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece 22 (1) Spring 2017


Related Links:
Veren of Lood (Holland) - Econmoische aanraders/Economic recommendations

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 14/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

Naked Capitalism

Jobless recoveries: exploring technology's role

Article by Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article originally published at VoxEU, Saturday 13 May

Recoveries from recessions in the US used to involve rapid job generation. During the 1970s and 1980s, the first two years of recoveries saw an average increase in employment of over 5%. But since the 1990s, the job recovery engine has slowed down, and the first two years of recoveries have generated, on average, less than a 1% increase in employment (Gali et al. 2012). This recent joblessness of recoveries exceeds what we would expect based only on the recovery of GDP, and has caused concern among policymakers. In our latest research, we investigate whether the jobless recovery is a wider problem that plagues developed countries outside the US, and whether modern technologies may be an underlying cause (Graetz and Michaels 2017).

Related publications

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries? Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece Volume 22, Issue 1, Spring 2017
Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries? Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1461, January 2017


Related Links:
Naked Capitalism - Jobless recoveries: exploring technology's role

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 14/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

American Economic Review,107(5): 168-73.

‘Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?'

Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels,

DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171100

Related publications

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries? Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece Volume 22, Issue 1, Spring 2017


Related Links:
American Economic Review,107(5): 168-73. - ‘Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?'

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 12/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Institute of Employment Rights

Is a robot after your job?

In 2015 by Georg Michaels[SIC] and Guy Graetz [SIC] published evidence from a dataset of companies in 17 countries gathered between 1993 and Subject articles 30 CLR News 1/2017 2007. They suggest that, while productivity increases with robotic innovation and some semi-skilled and lower skilled jobs are abandoned: “there is some evidence of diminishing marginal returns to robot use – ‘congestion effects’ – so they are not a panacea for growth. … this makes robots’ contribution to the aggregate economy roughly on a par with previous important technologies, such as the railroads in the nineteenth century and the US highways in the twentieth century.” Neither do robots do away with the contradictions within capitalist accumulation. This is because, as capital-bias and labour shedding takes place proportionately less, new value is created (as labour is the only source of new value) relative to the cost of invested capital. Added to this, as the economist Michael Roberts reminds us, worker resistance to the dystopia of permanent joblessness would surely ensure that the road to ‘full automation’, if ever constructed, would be a very rocky one.

Related publications

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015


Related Links:
The Institute of Employment Rights - Is a robot after your job?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 12/05/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP research citations

Bell B and Machin S (2016) Brexit and Wage Inequality, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, July 2016.

Cited in ‘Research for REGI Committee – Building Blocks for a Future Cohesion Policy – First Reflections: Study’, Directorate-General for Internal Policies, Policy Department B – Structural and Cohesion Policies’ European Parliament, April 2017

ISBN 978-92-846-0904-8

Doi: 10.2861/337566

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/601974/IPOL_STU(2017)601974_EN.pdf

 

Related publications

Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, July 2016. (http://cep.lse.ac.uk/textonly/_NEW2014/BREXIT/Bell_Machin_BrexitWages.pdf)


Related Links:
CEP research citations - Bell B and Machin S (2016) Brexit and Wage Inequality, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, July 2016.

CEP Labour Markets

Brian Bell webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 09/04/2017      [Back to the Top]

Wall Street Italia

Perché serve una nuova economia/Why we need a new economics

Labor economists of the United Kingdom, as well as co-author of both Richard Layard that Steven Nickell, we need the introduction of the NAIRU in 1986.

Related publications

Combatting Unemployment IZA Prize in Labor Economics, Richard Layard and Stephen Nickell; Edited by Werner Eichhorst and Klaus F. Zimmermann, OUP, 2011, ISBN 978-0-19-960978-9

https://global.oup.com/academic/product/combatting-unemployment-9780199609789?q=978-0-19-960978-9&lang=en&cc=gb

‘Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market’, Richard Jackman, Richard Layard and Stephen Nickell, OUP, 2005, ISBN: 9780199279173

https://global.oup.com/academic/product/unemployment-9780199279166?cc=gb&lang=en&


Related Links:
Wall Street Italia - Perché serve una nuova economia/Why we need a new economics

CEP Labour Markets CEP Wellbeing

Richard Layard webpage


News Posted: 16/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

St Louis Post-Dispatch (USA)

Stacy Washington: Minimum wage hike will hurt city of St. Louis

Researchers Maarten Goos and Alan Manning posit in “Lousy and Lovely Jobs: the Rising Polarization of Work in Great Britain” that there is a general “hollowing out of middle income routine jobs” while “high income cognitive jobs and low income manual jobs” continue to produce increasing job opportunities. While I disagree that entry-level food service and retail work is middle income, their point is well-made. Any human function that can be sequenced and programmed, such as taking orders, flipping burgers or operating fry baskets, can and will be automated to save money.

Related publications

‘Lovely and lousy jobs’, Alan Manning.  Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 2, Autumn 2013 (http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/CentrePiece_18_2.pdf)

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp398.pdf


Related Links:
St Louis Post-Dispatch (USA) - Stacy Washington: Minimum wage hike will hurt city of St. Louis

Lousy and Lovely Jobs: the Rising Polarization of Work in Britain

CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Alan Manning webpage


News Posted: 10/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review

Technology may not be responsible for jobless recoveries

Since the early 1990s, the US has been plagued by weak employment growth when emerging from recessions – so called ‘jobless recoveries’. Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels look at multiple recoveries elsewhere in the world over a 40-year period to see if the same applies – and whether modern technology is responsible.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review - Technology may not be responsible for jobless recoveries

In brief... Is technology to blame for jobless recoveries?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 09/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

Horticulture Week

Dutch TV news Javado and Alton Garden Centre Brexit report airs

Following Brexit, Dutch TV news has followed a consignment of orchids from Holland to Alton Garden Centre and visited last month's Garden Retail Summit.

Dutch TV channel NPO1 (equivalent to BBC1) followed the plant exports to the UK for themselves last week and visited the London School of Economics to get an insight into the impact of Brexit through Dutch/UK trade.  Nikhil Datta, a researcher at the London School of Economics, said the LSE has estimated that Brexit will have a negative effect of 0.75% on the Dutch economy.


Related Links:
Horticulture Week - Dutch TV news Javado and Alton Garden Centre Brexit report airs

CEP Labour Markets CEP Trade

Nikhil Datta webpage


News Posted: 09/03/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Irish Times

Theresa May's Nasty Party dons UKIP's Brexit clothes at a heavy price

Immigration has now been extensively studied: there is lots of excellent data that reveals robust conclusions over many different pieces of research. According to, for example, the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance, EU immigrants are more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than their UK-born counterparts.


Related Links:
The Irish Times - Theresa May's Nasty Party dons UKIP's Brexit clothes at a heavy price

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 27/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

BBC III – video

What would the UK look like without immigrants?

On #OneDayWithoutUs people are encouraged to show how much immigrants contribute to the country.

So how much of a difference do immigrants make to the UK economy?

At1:12 mins CEP (LSE) research flashes up.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358

CEP Growth Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/growth/default.asp

CEP Trade Programme webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/research/trade/default.asp


Related Links:
BBC III – video - What would the UK look like without immigrants?

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth CEP Trade

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 24/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Channel 4

FactCheckQandA: Why isn't immigration falling more quickly?

Why has net migration continued to rise and successive government’s failed to hit their targets?

According to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), the majority of those who come from the EU, do so for work related reasons, whilst the majority of those who come from non-EU countries do so for study-related reasons. Both positively contribute to the UK economy with the CEP suggesting both groups have had no negative effect on jobs or wages. This is one of the main reasons the government has found it difficult to reduce immigration.

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.

Related Links:

 

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358

 

 


Related Links:
Channel 4 - FactCheckQandA: Why isn't immigration falling more quickly?

Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 23/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

CEP Journal Articles

Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education and Norms'

Henrik Kleven and Camille Landais, Economica, 14 March 2017

DOI:  10.1111/ecca.12230


Related Links:
CEP Journal Articles - Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education and Norms'

CEP Labour Markets

Henrik Kleven webpage


News Posted: 22/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

House of Lords Hansard – www.parliament.uk

LSE research mentioned in Lords debate on the Article 50 Bill

During Lords debate on the Article 50 Bill, Lord McKenzie of Luton (Lab) mentioned LSE/CEP research:

 

"One of the most profound choices that the Government are seeking to make is to eschew membership of the single market and the customs union. They are prepared to sacrifice these at the altar of reducing immigration, notwithstanding research, most recently from the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, again showing the benefits to national income, taxes and the budget ​deficit from immigration, and notwithstanding a report from the think tank Global Future that suggests that the Government’s approach could mean a fall in current net levels of immigration of no more than 15%, and that might be reduced further by the terms of new free trade agreements, which typically come with a demand for liberalisation on free movement."

 

Related publications

'UK Growth: A New Chapter', LSE Growth Commission Report, February 2017.

Related links

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=787

Swati Dhingra webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7558

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=7598

John Van Reenen webpage:  http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/staff/person.asp?id=1358


Related Links:
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Philippe Aghion webpage

Stephen Machin webpage

Isabelle Roland webpage

Anna Valero webpage


News Posted: 21/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Le Monde.fr

Affaire, famille et politique: les liaisons dangereuses

The issue of jobs of members of the family of the elect is more complex. How do I know if a person got a job, or a higher wage, because of his family ties with an elected official? This is the problem that have tried to solve Stefano Gagliarducci and Marco Manacorda ("Politics in the family: anti-nepotism and the hiring decisions of Italian firms", no. 9841, January 2017, link to PDF IZA working paper). They combined an extensive database covering 500,000 men and women politicians on nearly thirty years, and a random sample of one million employees in the private sector.


Related Links:
Le Monde.fr - Affaire, famille et politique: les liaisons dangereuses

Politics in the Family: Nepotism and the Hiring Decisions of Italian Firms

CEP Labour Markets

Marco Manacorda webpage


News Posted: 16/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

IZA Newsroom

Does modern technology slow down employment growth after recessions?

This phenomenon of labor market polarization (or “hollowing out” of middle-skilled jobs) has attracted widespread attention and contributed to the ongoing debate on the impact of technological change on labor markets. While much of the focus has been on the United States, Georg Graetz (Uppsala University and IZA) and Guy Michaels (London School of Economics and IZA) investigate in their recent IZA Discussion Paper whether labor markets in other countries have also been slow to pick up after recessions, and if modern technology could be to blame.


Related Links:
IZA Newsroom - Does modern technology slow down employment growth after recessions?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 14/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Work improves general happiness, but are you happy while you work?

By checking on people at random times of the day via an app, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron uncover the misery of work.

Related links

Alex Bryson, CEP Alumni, Labour Markets Programme.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Work improves general happiness, but are you happy while you work?

Are you happy while you work?

Are You Happy While You Work?

CEP Labour Markets


News Posted: 08/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

Newsin English.no (Norway)

Immigration tests the welfare state

Professor Alan Manning of the London School of Economics, told newspaper Aftenposten in January that the Migration Advisory Committee he ...

Related Links:
Newsin English.no (Norway) - Immigration tests the welfare state

CEP Community CEP Labour Markets

Alan Manning webpage


News Posted: 02/02/2017      [Back to the Top]

New Statesman

How the government's industrial strategy could steal your job

Britain’s manufacturing heritage is told through faded photos of workers on assembly lines, or operating basic tools. But that was the 1970s, and in the 21st century, a factory has a lot more robots. Using robots raises productivity by 0.37 per cent, according to a recent LSE/Uppsala study, and we are still in the early stages of development. Surely any 21st century, productive, British entrepreneur worth his or her salt would embrace automation?


Related Links:
New Statesman - How the government's industrial strategy could steal your job

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Carnetericpeyre.blog (France)

Carnetsecret: Bonne synthèse d'Ariane Chemin sur le revenu universel où l'on constate qu'il ne s'agit pas d'une question économique mais bien de société

A multitude of studies weaken the prophecy of universal income advocates: that of researchers Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels (2015) , who found, by analyzing seventeen countries over fifteen years, the robot had a close win Half point of growth per year without affecting employment.


Related Links:
Carnetericpeyre.blog (France) - Carnetsecret: Bonne synthèse d'Ariane Chemin sur le revenu universel où l'on constate qu'il ne s'agit pas d'une question économique mais bien de société

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 26/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg view

Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

In a new paper called “Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?,” economists George Graetz and Guy Michaels looked at 17 different developed countries, from 1970 through 2011. The title refers to the hypothesis that companies replace routine workers with machines. Graetz and Michaels basically find that the modern jobless recovery is a phenomenon unique to the U.S., and that other nations manage to quickly re-employ their middle-skilled workers once bad times end.


Related Links:
Bloomberg view - Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Bloomberg News

Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

Most rich countries hire back workers after a recession. The U.S. replaces them with machines

Economists have recently discovered that it’s middle-skill routine jobs -- think of cashiers, telemarketers, or cooks -- that tend to get eliminated in jobless recoveries. In a landmark paper titled “The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries,” Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu found that it’s these workers who aren’t being hired back in the U.S. after recessions hit. In fact, the much-feared phenomenon of job polarization -- the separation of the labor market into low-paid grunt work and high-paid knowledge work -- happens entirely during these U-shaped recoveries. But does this happen in other countries? If not, there might be policy steps the U.S. could take to prevent this from happening. In a new paper called “Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?,” economists George Graetz and Guy Michaels looked at 17 different developed countries, from 1970 through 2011. The title refers to the hypothesis that companies replace routine workers with machines. Graetz and Michaels basically find that the modern jobless recovery is a phenomenon unique to the U.S., and that other nations manage to quickly re-employ their middle-skilled workers once bad times end.


Related Links:
Bloomberg News - Why the U.S. has a monopoly on jobless recoveries

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 23/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Canary

At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

May’s speech suggests the UK is on course to aim for a bilateral agreement. Currently, countries like Switzerland pay around 40% as much as the UK’s contribution for EU membership for access on those terms, according to the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). And that does not include free trade in services.


Related Links:
The Canary - At PMQs, the 'Irony Lady' revealed exactly what she's been hiding from the British public

BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

CEP Growth CEP Trade CEP Labour Markets

Holger Breinlich webpage

Swati Dhingra webpage

Hanwei Huang webpage

Saul Estrin webpage

Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage

Thomas Sampson webpage

John Van reenen webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 18/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Middlesex Minds (Middlesex University London)

Is a robot after your job?

Evidence published in 2015 by Michaels and Graetz from a dataset of companies in 17 countries gathered between 1993 and 2007, suggests that while productivity increases with robotic innovation and some semi-skilled and lower skilled jobs are abandoned, “there is some evidence of diminishing marginal returns to robot use – ‘congestion effects’ -so they are not a panacea for growth……this makes robots’ contribution to the aggregate economy roughly on a par with previous important technologies, such as the railroads in the nineteenth century and the US highways in the twentieth century.” Neither do robots do away with the contradictions within capitalist accumulation.


Related Links:
Middlesex Minds (Middlesex University London) - Is a robot after your job?

Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 16/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Pavlovic Today

3 reasons why Brexit was astonishingly the right decision

With popular google search results ranging from “What is the EU” to “What will happen if we leave the EU” from Britain hours after the referendum, it is clear that Brexit was an unknowledgeable decision. However, the ones who did vote knowledgeably had their own reasons to do so. According to labour-market economists Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, countries who voted to leave had their weakest wage growth since 1997. For them, Brexit would mean greater opportunities and higher potential for economic growth. Other studies show that Brexit was a decision fueled by nonacceptance to social issues such as feminism and environmentalism that are taking place in Britain with it being part of the EU. Perhaps a major reason for citizens all over Britain is the rare opportunity to restore the country’s sovereignty, although undemocratic to Eurosceptics.

Related article

Brexit and wage inequality’, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, Vox, August 16, 2016 

 

Related publications

Brexit and wage inequality’, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin.  Chapter in Brexit beckons: thinking ahead by leading economists, R. Baldwin (Ed), August 2016

 


Related Links:
Pavlovic Today - 3 reasons why Brexit was astonishingly the right decision

CEP Labour Markets

Brian Bell webpage

Stephen Machin webpage


News Posted: 11/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Forbes

We won't even know if a robot takes your job

Using national level data on worldwide robot shipments across 17 countries, George Graetz and Guy Michaels show that robots may have been responsible for about a tenth of the increases in those countries’ gross domestic product between 1993 and 2007, and may have increased labor productivity growth by over 15%. This might sound like it’s a small number, but it’s not. According to the authors, this number is comparable to the impact of steam engines on British labor productivity growth in the 19th Century. Does this growth come at the expense of labor? Graetz and Michaels find some evidence that wages go up on average as robot use increases. But they also find some evidence that hours worked drops for low-skilled and middle-skilled workers. A paper by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo focuses on the effect of robots on the U.S. labor market and estimates that each additional robot reduces employment by seven workers and that one new robot per thousand workers reduces wages by 1.2 to 1.6%.


Related Links:
Forbes - We won't even know if a robot takes your job

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Guy Michaels webpage

Georg Graetz webpage


News Posted: 11/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

Social mobility in the United States depends heavily upon where you live

There is considerable geographical variation in the opportunities available to disadvantaged children in the United States, according to research by Raj Chetty, who delivered the 2016 Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures at LSE. Maria Molina-Domene talked to him about his findings, the use of big data and the implications for policy.

Raj began his first lecture with a striking comparison of how far the United States is from achieving ‘the American Dream’ in terms of social mobility. He highlighted the fact that the probability of a child born to parents in the bottom fifth of the income distribution reaching the top fifth is 7.5 percent in the United States. This compares with the figure of 9 percent for the UK revealed in CEP research by Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin.


Related Links:
LSE Business Review blog - Social mobility in the United States depends heavily upon where you live

Social Mobility in Britain: Low and Falling

CEP Labour Markets

Maria Molina-domene webpage


News Posted: 06/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

LSE United States Politics and Policy blog

Social mobility in the United States depends heavily on where you live

There is considerable geographical variation in the opportunities available to disadvantaged children in the United States, according to research by Raj Chetty, who delivered the 2016 Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures at LSE. Maria Molina-Domene talked to him about his findings, the use of big data and the implications for policy.

Raj Chetty was in London in October to deliver three lectures on the theme of social mobility in the United States. While he was at LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), I talked to him about the use of big data in economic research, notably in the Equality of Opportunity Project that he leads. His findings on the differences in opportunity across local areas in the United States and the causal impact of neighborhoods were the core of his lectures.


Related Links:
LSE United States Politics and Policy blog - Social mobility in the United States depends heavily on where you live

In brief... Social mobility in the United States

CEP Labour Markets

Maria Molina-domene webpage


News Posted: 06/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Foreign Affairs (New Zealand)

Press Release: Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement

Sir David Metcalf has today (5 January 2017) been named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement to oversee a government crackdown on exploitation in the workplace.


Related Links:
Foreign Affairs (New Zealand) - Press Release: Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

It is the sport of kings and, apparently, tsars as well...

The minimum wage tsar is more interesting than the government would have you believe. The biography, as released by Whitehall, of Professor Sir David Metcalf, who has been appointed as the first director of labour market enforcement, lists several worthy previous public sector appointments. However, his university, the London School of Economics, paints a slightly more rounded picture, pointing out that he owns a leg in a racehorse and has been a steward at Kempton and Plumpton racecourses.


Related Links:
The Times - It is the sport of kings and, apparently, tsars as well...

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Home Office - gov.uk

Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement - press release

Sir David, who was chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee until August 2016, will set the strategic priorities for the:

  • Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority
  • Employment Agency Standards Inspectorate
  • HMRC’s National Minimum Wage enforcement team

Related Links:
Home Office - gov.uk - Sir David Metcalf named as the first Director of Labour Market Enforcement - press release

CEP Labour Markets


News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Times

Employers face jail over minimum wage

Employers who deny workers the minimum wage could face two years in jail under plans to accelerate a crackdown on unscrupulous companies and gangmasters.  The government will appoint a “labour market enforcement director” today to clamp down on the exploitation of casual workers.  The new role will be taken up by Sir David Metcalf, an industrial relations professor at the London School of Economics and, until recently, a key adviser to Downing Street on migration.


Related Links:
The Times - Employers face jail over minimum wage

CEP Labour Markets

David Metcalf webpage


News Posted: 05/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

Mail Online

Gloomy economists forecast Brexit trouble ahead for the UK…despite getting it wrong last year

Four in ten leading economists are more pessimistic about Britain's future after Brexit, despite the buoyant economy since the vote, according to a new FT poll. While many are looking to 2017 for a spot of better luck than 2016, UK economists are less optimistic about what the coming year will bring, the annual survey found. The Financial Times asked 122 industry experts to give their predictions for the next 12 months, with the vast majority foreseeing the British economy losing steam in the wake of higher inflation and Brexit uncertainty.


Related Links:
Mail Online - Gloomy economists forecast Brexit trouble ahead for the UK…despite getting it wrong last year

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 03/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Weaker pound expected to reduce immigration

Slower economic growth also predicted to deter new migrants

Question:  ‘What do you think will happen to immigration?’

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

It does not seems likely to change much and therefore not much impact to follow. A worry is that high skill immigration is slowed down by current events and attitudes.

 

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

Since negotiations will be still be going on after Article 50 triggered, there will not be much effect. Levels will probably remain high (net migration above 300k) until we exit in 2018 and more controls are then introduced. More EU immigrants will come in 2017 to avoid the 2018 controls. The reduction in immigration will reduce overall growth significantly and reduce GDP per capita a bit. The loss of deep access to Single Market due to ending free movement will be the main negative effect over long-run. Lower immigration will do nothing to help UK workers — see http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

See Also:

Financial Times

  1. Bank of England expected to keep its options open

    ...monetary discipline in the UK too. Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics...

    ...that the approach will be very cautious. On the whole upside risk for higher interest rates but slowly. John Van Reenen

  2. Inflation predicted to rise above 2 per cent target in 2017

    ..., falling below it at the start of 2018. Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics It seems...

    ...business cycle, wage increases and especially the weak pound are adding to inflationary pressures in 2017. John Van Reenen


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Weaker pound expected to reduce immigration

CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 02/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Chancellor likely to overshoot borrowing forecast, economists say

Contributing factors include weaker tax revenues and pressure to rein in cuts

Question:  ‘Do you think the government will need to borrow more than it has forecast in 2017?’

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

Government borrowing, if it is for areas that increase long-term growth, is not a bad thing. Indeed, while borrowing to fund infrastructure and innovation may increase the deficit in the short run it will probably decrease debt/GDP in the long run due to the effects on productivity and GDP growth (this is why countries like Italy that have not invested in these areas have low deficits but high debt/GDP). I believe, however, that UK borrowing will increase for the following good and bad reasons: (1) GOOD: because it seems that May’s government wants to bet on an active industrial and innovation policy: this requires an active investment strategy which in the short-run may increase the deficit. (2) BAD because Brexit will continue to be a major drain on the economy, causing government to waste a large amount of resources in managing the process (with evidence that they are already paying KPMG and other consultants exorbitant rates for the ‘outsourced’ part of this management), and also to make up for the lost (eventual) EU investment (Horizon, ERC, EIB etc). And (3) BAD because the fall in corporate income tax will increase the deficit, without having any effect on real investment. It will, I believe, only fuel inequality, which in the long run also raises the deficit, both due to the welfare payments that rise with inequality, and the lower tax receipts.

 

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

The current plans remain too optimistic. He will correctly use more flexibility to expand investment from current plans. Will not cur current deficit as much as planned.


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Chancellor likely to overshoot borrowing forecast, economists say

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 02/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Economists gloomy on UK prospects for 2017

Growth will slow, incomes will be squeezed and investment delayed, FT survey finds

Question: ‘How much, if at all, do you expect UK economic growth to slow in 2017?’

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

It seems likely to that growth will be a fair bit slower than pre-Brexit referendum forecasts, mostly because the prospects of productivity and/or real wage growth do not look very promising.

 

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

Slow to about 1.4%. Greater policy uncertainty over Trump, Brexit & elections in France and Germany will harm investment and hiring

.


Related Links:
The Financial Times - Economists gloomy on UK prospects for 2017

CEP Growth CEP Labour Markets

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 02/01/2017      [Back to the Top]

ElEspanol

EEUU asume la destruccion de millones de empleos por el 'boom' de los robots

So, the White House cites a study of 2015 by George Graetz and Guy Michaels made in 17 countries, that concluded that the robots helped to increase the wealth of those countries by 0.4% between 1993 and 2007.

Related Links:
ElEspanol - EEUU asume la destruccion de millones de empleos por el 'boom' de los robots

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 30/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

Investor view.dk (Denmark)

Robot teknologi kan fa hjaelp I 2017

We have seen signs that the companies which manage to exploit the robots and the Internet of Things (IoT) in their production machinery can compete with factories in the distant economies. This trend is further enhanced by rising wages in the South-East Asian economists, while the price of Robotics vice versa decreases from year to year. According to the study "Robots at Work" from 2015 by Georg Grätz and Guy Michaels at the London School of Economic and Political Science caused the death of a quality adjusted robot in 2005 only a fifth of the price in 1990.


Related Links:
Investor view.dk (Denmark) - Robot teknologi kan fa hjaelp I 2017

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 23/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

Sensafiltro

L'Industria 4.0 e il futuro del Made in Italy

In fact the industry 4.0 represents a great opportunity for our manufacturing and for once never catches us completely off-guard. According to a recent study carried out by economists George Graetz and Guy Michaels, Italy is second only to Germany in terms of density, measured as the number of robots per million hours worked.

Related Links:
Sensafiltro - L'Industria 4.0 e il futuro del Made in Italy

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 02/12/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Brexit Vote blog

There is no inevitable negative effect of immigration on the quality of people's lives in the UK

Many people think that migrants take jobs away from citizens, reduce wages or both. Others argue that immigrants benefit the economy because they take risks and start businesses.  In three short videos below Alan Manning explains how migration affects your job prospects, presents the data from the UK and the world, and gives insights on managing migration in light of this evidence. Ultimately, he argues that there is no inevitable negative effect of immigration on the quality of people’s lives in the UK.

This post represents the views of the author.  It was first published at Migration Matters.


Related Links:
LSE Brexit Vote blog - There is no inevitable negative effect of immigration on the quality of people's lives in the UK

CEP Community CEP Labour Markets

Alan Manning webpage


News Posted: 29/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

May seeks solution to productivity conundrum

Skills policies would ideally be co-ordinated with the government’s proposed new industrial strategy. “In the long-run, skills are really important for growth,” said Stephen Machin, co-chair of the new LSE growth commission, which is collecting evidence on how economic growth can be enhanced.

... One area where British companies lag behind foreign competitors is the quality of management practices, according to John Van Reenan, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Better managers are better able to adopt new technologies and use existing ones most efficiently.

 


Related Links:
Financial Times - May seeks solution to productivity conundrum

Management Practices Across Firms and Countries

CEP Labour Markets CEP Growth

Stephen Machin webpage

John Van reenen webpage


News Posted: 21/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Modern Diplomacy

President Trump - Incumbency is different from candidacy

The commonly held belief that immigrants hold down the wages of native workers is also doubtful. The economic literature is mixed although a paper by Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth of the London School of Economics found that economic migrants to the UK have little effect on natives' jobs or wages. New arrivals apparently affect the pay of recent immigrants. A President Trump may build a wall wasting $40-60 billion dollars, but for what?


Related Links:
Modern Diplomacy - President Trump - Incumbency is different from candidacy

The Labour Market Effects of Immigration

The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain

CEP Community CEP Labour Markets

Marco Manacorda webpage

Alan Manning webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 17/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Countercurrents.org

Can a President Trump follow his signature agenda?

The commonly held belief that immigrants hold down the wages of native workers is also doubtful. The economic literature is mixed although a paper by Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth of the London School of Economics found that economic migrants to the UK have little effect on natives’ jobs or wages. New arrivals apparently affect the pay of recent immigrants. A President Trump may build a wall wasting $40-60 billion dollars, but for what?

This article was published online by Countercurrents.org on November 17, 2016
Link to article here


Related Links:
Countercurrents.org - Can a President Trump follow his signature agenda?

The Labour Market Effects of Immigration

The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain

CEP Community CEP Labour Markets

Marco Manacorda webpage

Alan Manning webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 17/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Telesur TV

Will President Trump's hands be tied?

The commonly held belief that immigrants hold down the wages of native workers is also doubtful.  The economic literature is mixed although a paper by Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth of the London School of Economics found that economic migrants to the UK have little effect on natives' jobs or wages.  New arrivals apparently affect the pay of recent immigrants.  President Trump may build a wall wasting $40-60 billion dollars, but for what?


Related Links:
Telesur TV - Will President Trump's hands be tied?

The Labour Market Effects of Immigration

The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain

CEP Labour Markets CEP Community

Marco Manacorda webpage

Alan Manning webpage

Jonathan Wadsworth webpage


News Posted: 16/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Polish Express

Polski dzieci poprawiaja wynicki w nauce swoich brytyjskich kolegow/Polish children improve the academic performance of their British colleagues

A study carried out by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics shows that these students have a positive effect on the English students.

"Data from the Catholic schools, which attend children Polish immigrants show that the presence of foreigners can have a positive effect on the children of natives of our country," said Prof. Sandra McNally of Surrey University. Prof. McNally said, too, that this may be due to better standards in schools in Poland as well as the ethics of their parents, who have left their homeland to seek employment in the UK.

This article was published online by Polish Express on November 13, 2016
Link to article here


Related Links:
Polish Express - Polski dzieci poprawiaja wynicki w nauce swoich brytyjskich kolegow/Polish children improve the academic performance of their British colleagues

In brief: Language barriers? The impact of non-native English speakers in the classroom

Non-Native Speakers Of English In The Classroom: What Are The Effects On Pupil Performance?

CEP Education and Skills CEP Labour Markets CEP Education and Skills

Sandra Mcnally webpage

Shqiponja Telhaj webpage


News Posted: 13/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Plastics Today

Productivity numbers send mixed - maybe wrong - signals

Given the increased usage of robotics and other automation, how will that impact the productivity numbers? In July of 2015, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels published a paper, “Estimating the Impact of Robots on Productivity and Employment,” in Robohub. The pair set out to discover the impact of robots on the average manufacturing worker by analyzing their effect in 14 industries across 17 developed countries from 1993 to 2007. “We found that industrial robots increase labor productivity, total factor productivity and wages,” said Graetz and Michaels in their study. “While they don’t significantly change total hours worked, they may be a threat to low- and middle-skilled workers.”


Related Links:
Plastics Today - Productivity numbers send mixed - maybe wrong - signals

Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs

Robots at Work

CEP Labour Markets

Georg Graetz webpage

Guy Michaels webpage


News Posted: 07/11/2016      [Back to the Top]

Yale Global Online

Four fallacies about trade and globalization

Article sources a figure from 'Guessing game: Actual job losses due to robots may not be as bad as anticipated for most countries' (Source: George Graetz and Guy Michaels, “Robots at Work”.


News Posted: 27/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Conversation

A hard Brexit and reduced migration won't benefit UK workers

Article by Barbara Petrongolo
In the wake of Britains vote to leave the EU, the big debate has switched to what relationship the two should have post-Brexit. Top of the agenda is access to the single market and freedom of movement. As well as indications from the government that it is headed for a ''hard Brexit'' - which means leaving the single market and an end to freedom of movement - there has been much talk of limiting the number of foreign workers in businesses since the Brexit vote. In an ebook for VoxEU on Brexit, I've analysed the research on how Brexit will affect the UK labour market, including jobs and wages. From an economic perspective, leaving the single market and curtailing immigration from the EU would not only be bad news for the British economy, but the evidence suggests that it would not bring much benefit to UK-born workers either.

This article was published online by The Conversation on October 18, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead, VoxEU ebook by leading economists including Barbara Petrongolo. See Chapter 14: 'Brexit and labour markets'
Brexit and the UK Labour Market, Barbara Petrongolo. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

Related links
Barbara Petrongolo webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Barbara Petrongolo CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE Business Review blog

New immigrants don't affect the job prospects of UK-born workers

New arrivals flock to the occupations and industries in which existing immigrants work, argues Barbara Petrongolo.
Most economists would argue that there is not much of a trade-off involved in this choice. The EU is the UK's largest trade partner (accounting for about half of UK trade flows) and losing access to the Single Market would inevitably damage the UK economy. Dhingra et al (2016a) calculate that in an optimistic scenario in which the UK remains a member of the EEA, it would suffer a 1.3% decline in GDP per head, mostly resulting from the impact of non-tariff trade barriers on trade flows.
But in a pessimistic scenario in which the UK leaves the EEA and trade between the UK and the EU is governed by World Trade Organization rules, the higher increase in trade costs would induce a fall in GDP per head of about 2.6%. To be added to this is the resulting fall in foreign direct investment, which is estimated to produce an even stronger decline in UK GDP than the increase in trade costs (Dhingra et al, 2016b).
Is it economically worthwhile to bear these costs in order to retain controls on immigration flows from the EU? EU immigration has represented the bulk of the recent growth in the share of foreign-born population in the UK, especially after the EU enlargement of 2004, and EU nationals have entered - to varying degrees - all sectors of the UK economy.

This article was published by the LSE Business Review blog on October 18, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead, VoxEU ebook by leading economists including Barbara Petrongolo. See Chapter 14: 'Brexit and labour markets'
Brexit and the UK Labour Market, Barbara Petrongolo. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

Related links
Barbara Petrongolo webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Barbara Petrongolo CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Migration Matters

Do migrants take away jobs?

Part 2/6 from six impossible ideas (after Brexit)
Many people think that migrants take jobs away from citizens, reduce wages or both. But you may also have heard the argument that immigrants benefit the economy because they take risks and start businesses. So, who's right?
We took this question to Alan Manning, Professor of Economics at LSE. In three short videos, Alan explains how migration affects your job prospects, presents the data from the UK and the world, and gives insights on managing migration in light of this evidence.

The episode of Migration Matters was posted on October 17, 2016
Link to the article and films here

Related publications
Recommended reading: Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2015 Election Analysis Series, Paper No.19, February 2015

Related links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
Alan Manning CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 17/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Migration Matters

Do migrants take away jobs?

Part 2/6 from six impossible ideas (after Brexit)
Many people think that migrants take jobs away from citizens, reduce wages or both. But you may also have heard the argument that immigrants benefit the economy because they take risks and start businesses. So, who's right?
We took this question to Alan Manning, Professor of Economics at LSE. In three short videos, Alan explains how migration affects your job prospects, presents the data from the UK and the world, and gives insights on managing migration in light of this evidence.

The episode of Migration Matters was posted on October 17, 2016
Link to the article and films here

Related publications
Recommended reading: Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2015 Election Analysis Series, Paper No.19, February 2015

Related links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
Alan Manning CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 17/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: UK faces £350m-a-week ‘divorce bill' as result of leaving the EU

Economist Thomas Sampson told The Independent: ''It's important to remember that the exit bill would be a one-off payment and in the longer run it is likely to be dwarfed by the broader economic costs resulting from reduced integration with EU markets, particularly if the government pursues a hard Brexit.''

This article was published by The Independent on October 14, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016

Related links
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage


News Posted: 14/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

BBC Three Counties Radio

Jasmeen Khan

Caller mentions research by the Centre for Economic Performance at around 01:11:05
Caller: ... not in many cases a cynical attempt on the part of employers to simply cheat workers by paying them the lowest wages that they can. It's a competitive market that they are operating in and unless they are able to manage their costs then they go out of business.
Interviewer: ... language around the EU was people that felt workers from outside the country were taking jobs that they had a right to.
Caller: There is no evidence of that really.
Interviewer: you can't deny the strength of the sentiment
Caller: ... it's a great shame that that was allowed to take root. I can't remember any really effective methods on the part of any politicians, certainly from the mainstream parties, to do that. The only - in the FT this week there was a long article that refuted all these allegations about low wages - about migrant workers driving down wages - the London School of Economics, their Economic Performance Centre [sic] looked at all of this and refuted all of those arguments as well but there was nobody amongst the politicians who took up these arguments and ... [caller lost]

The radio programme was broadcast on BBC Three Counties Radio's Yasmeen Khan talk show on October 9, 2016
Link to the broadcast here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 09/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

LSE British Politics and Policy blog

Does immigration harm the job prospects of the UK-born? Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of tougher immigration controls on the wages and employment prospects of the UK-born and the current stock of immigrants.

This article was published on the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on October 8, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead, VoxEU ebook by leading economists including Barbara Petrongolo. See Chapter 14: 'Brexit and labour markets'
Brexit and the UK Labour Market, Barbara Petrongolo. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

Related links
Barbara Petrongolo webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Barbara Petrongolo CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 08/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Free Lunch: My country right or wrong

Many government ministers have suggested that immigration is an obstacle to natives getting jobs. Jonathan Wadsworth takes up the home secretary's challenge to talk about immigration and how it may affect young people's labour market opportunities - and points out that it is hard to find any sign that it affects those opportunities at all. He examines the geographic relationship between the change in the rate of youth not in employment, education or training and in the rate of immigrant workers - and finds there is none.
That complements the assessment of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics before the referendum, which showed there was no correlation between changes in immigration and changes in native pay or employment by location. A new overview from the centre points out even within the same skill level, immigrants and native workers are not necessarily close substitutes. Indeed those who suffer most from increased immigration are earlier immigrants. Conversely, a reduction in immigration after Brexit may not increase employment for natives but rather lead to more automation in some industries that rely heavily on migrant labour.

This article was published by the Financial Times's Free Lunch blog on October 7, 2016
Link to article here

Related articles
Let's talk about immigration: young people, jobs and training, Jonathan Wadsworth, The State of Working Britain blog, Centre for Economic Performance, October 5, 2016

Related publications
Brexit and the UK Labour Market, Barbara Petrongolo. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here
See all postings on The State of Working Britain blog here

Related links
Barbara Petrongolo webpage
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Barbara Petrongolo CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 07/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Jeremy Corbyn's reaction to what Theresa May said about immigration was the last thing Labour needed

[Jeremy] Corbyn too is proposing a solution ''which would reduce numbers'', despite the fact in its 2015 General Election briefing, the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics observed: ''There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, wages, housing or the crowding out of public services.''

This article was published online by the Independent on October 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 06/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

‘Return of the nasty party' claims over Tory crackdown on foreign workers

In a briefing sent afterwards, it was made clear that other measures to be considered would be, ''whether employers should have to set out the steps they have taken to foster a pool of local candidates, set out the impact on the local labour force of their foreign recruitment and be clear about the proportion of their workforce which is international, as is the case in the US.'' It came as a report from the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance found new immigration restrictions on EU workers will damage business and not lead to greater job opportunities for British people.

This article was published by the Independent on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the UK Labour Market, Barbara Petrongolo. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 2, Autumn 2016

Related links
Barbara Petrongolo webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Barbara Petrongolo CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

Financial Times

Proposals on lines of foreign workers cause outcry

Academic studies also find little link between migration and unemployment. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increases in EU immigration, these have not had the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008.

This article was published by the Financial Times on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Telegraph (online)

On immigration and jobs, Theresa May employs the post-truth politics of Donald Trump

I am one of those people who, as she anticipated, have a bit of a problem with something Mrs May said about immigration:

If you're one of those people who lost their job, who stayed in work but on reduced hours, took a pay cut as household bills rocketed, or - and I know a lot of people don't like to admit this - someone who finds themselves out of work or on lower wages because of low-skilled immigration, life simply doesn't seem fair.

... it may be worth looking at another paper by the the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

It concludes thus:

There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, wages, housing or the crowding out of public services. Any negative impacts on wages of less skilled groups are small. One of the largest impacts of immigration seems to be on public perceptions.

This article was published online by The Telegraph on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Also in
MSN.com
On immigration and jobs, Theresa May employs the post-truth politics of Donald Trump

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Telegraph (online)

On immigration and jobs, Theresa May employs the post-truth politics of Donald Trump

I am one of those people who, as she anticipated, have a bit of a problem with something Mrs May said about immigration:

If you're one of those people who lost their job, who stayed in work but on reduced hours, took a pay cut as household bills rocketed, or - and I know a lot of people don't like to admit this - someone who finds themselves out of work or on lower wages because of low-skilled immigration, life simply doesn't seem fair.

... it may be worth looking at another paper by the the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

It concludes thus:

There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, wages, housing or the crowding out of public services. Any negative impacts on wages of less skilled groups are small. One of the largest impacts of immigration seems to be on public perceptions.

This article was published online by The Telegraph on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Also in
MSN.com
On immigration and jobs, Theresa May employs the post-truth politics of Donald Trump

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Financial Times

Proposals on lists of foreign workers cause outcry

Economists see little to link migration and unemployment
There is little evidence that migrants have displaced British workers from jobs. Indeed, the employment rate for UK nationals is now 74.6 per cent, the highest since records began in 1997. Academic studies also find little link between migration and unemployment. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increases in EU immigration, these have not had the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008.

This article was published by The Financial Times on October 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

What do immigrants do for the UK economy? Nine charts Conservative ministers seem to be ignoring

Article includes nine charts to help provide an answer to 'And what is the real impact of immigrants on the rest of the workforce and the wider economy?' including:
Jonathan Wadsworth a researcher at the London School of Economics has found no correlation between local average wage growth and the local share of migrants in a local workforce.

This article was published online by the Independent on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analysis No 19, February 2015
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage

News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

CEP State of Working Britain blog

Let's talk about immigration: young people, jobs and training

Article by Jonathan Wadsworth
The Home Secretary on the Today programme said that she was happy to talk about immigration in the context of suggesting that there may be a link between immigration and lack of jobs and training opportunities for young people. So let's talk. It is very hard to find any link in the UK between immigration, jobs and training opportunities for young people. And conversations that suggest there may be a link are probably not very helpful.

This article was published online on the State of Working Britain blog on October 5, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Jonathan Wadsworth CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 05/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Needed but not wanted

Economic migrants are seen as a threat to jobs and the welfare state. The reality is more complex. Immigration of low-skilled workers has become an increasingly contentious political issue in both America and Britain. Voters in host countries often see a sudden influx of people from places with lower wages, poorer working conditions and a less generous welfare system as a threat to their livelihoods and living standards.

A paper by Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth, of the London School of Economics, concludes that immigrants to Britain are imperfect substitutes for native-born workers, so they have little impact on natives’ job prospects or wages. New immigrants tend to affect only the pay of recently arrived immigrants.

This article was published by The Economist on October 1, 2016

Link to article here.

Related links:
Marco Manacorda webpage
Alan Manning webpage
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Community Programme webpage

 


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Free exchange: Down to earth

Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade
Furthermore, according to Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics, gravity models do a good job of predicting actual trading relationships today.

This article was published in The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Swati Dhingra CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Economist

Migration: Needed but not wanted

Economic migrants are seen as a threat to jobs and the welfare state. The reality is more complex
Until quite recently the academic literature treated migrants as substitutes for native workers. But what if they were complements; if low-skilled migrants helped to boost the productivity of low-skilled natives? Gianmarco Ottaviano, of the University of Bologna, and Giovanni Peri, of the University of California, Davis, find that for workers with at least a high-school qualification, the wage effects of low-skill immigration are positive if you drop the assumption that workers of the same age and education are perfect substitutes and that workers of one skill level, say cooks, do not affect the productivity of workers at other skill levels, say waiters or restaurant managers. The effect on the wages of high-school dropouts is only mildly negative. A paper by Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth, of the London School of Economics, similarly concludes that immigrants to Britain are imperfect substitutes for native-born workers, so they have little impact on natives' job prospects or wages. New immigrants tend to affect only the pay of recently arrived immigrants.

This article was published by The Economist on October 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Immigration, offshoring, and American jobs, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri and Gregory White, American Economic Review, 103(5), August 2013
Immigration: the link to international trade in services, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri and Gregory White. Article in CentrePiece Volume 20, Issue 2, Autumn 2015
The impact of immigration on the structure of wages: theory and evidence from Britain, Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 10, Issue 1, February 2012
The Labour Market Effects of Immigration, Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 12, Issue 3, Winter 2008

Related links
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Marco Manacorda webpage
Alan Manning webpage
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Community Programme webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 01/10/2016      [Back to the Top]

indy100 Independent

Jeremy Corbyn is absolutely right about immigration. Here's why

3. Immigrants have not depressed the wages of UK workers
A report by the London School of Economics this year showed that there was no correlation between an increase in immigration and the recent dip in wages. While wages have fallen in recent years and immigration continued to rise, wages were also rising while immigration was rising.
Includes a figure from research published by the Centre for Economic Performance

This article was published online by indy100 Independent on September 28, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 28/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

The Independent

Brexit: True cost of UK leaving EU without trade deal revealed

EXCLUSIVE: An analysis by The Independent of official data suggests British exporters would face a cost of at least £4.5bn - and in all likelihood they would take a hit many times larger
A separate analysis by the London School of Economics suggested the welfare losses of moving to the WTO rules in a ''big bang'' would be up to 3.5 per cent of GDP per head instantly. ''The fact that the country is in some way being told to be prepared to face what we regarded as a very pessimistic outcome is quite discouraging in itself,'' said Gianmarco Ottaviano of the LSE. John Van Reenen, a former colleague of Ottaviano and now Professor of Economics at MIT in the US, said trading under WTO rules would be a ''truly dreadful outcome for British people''.

This article was published by The Independent on September 23, 2016
Link to article here

See Also
DigitalSpy
Brexit: True cost of UK leaving EU without trade deal revealed

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage


News Posted: 23/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

Handelsblatt

Taten mussen folgen

Even [Sadiq] Khan's predecessor Boris Johnson campaigned with several plans to build 55,000 new homes in London and to slow down the price increase caused by demand pressures. Up to the end of his tenure, he failed. Khan says ''Our city needs more than 50,000 new apartments a year''. Paul Cheshire, real estate expert and former Professor of geography at the London School of Economics (LSE), already had been critical of Johnson's plans and also thinks Khan's promise is hard to meet. ''The goal is indeed desirable, but to achieve it, one would need a magic wand,'' Cheshire said.

This article was published online by Handelsblatt on September 22, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Paul Cheshire webpage
Urban Programme webpage


News Posted: 22/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

Handelsblatt

Taten mussen folgen

Even [Sadiq] Khan's predecessor Boris Johnson campaigned with several plans to build 55,000 new homes in London and to slow down the price increase caused by demand pressures. Up to the end of his tenure, he failed. Khan says ''Our city needs more than 50,000 new apartments a year''. Paul Cheshire, real estate expert and former Professor of geography at the London School of Economics (LSE), already had been critical of Johnson's plans and also thinks Khan's promise is hard to meet. ''The goal is indeed desirable, but to achieve it, one would need a magic wand,'' Cheshire said.

This article was published online by Handelsblatt on September 22, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
Paul Cheshire webpage
Urban Programme webpage


News Posted: 22/09/2016      [Back to the Top]

Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway)

Do we need more goals for society than economic growth?

Therefore, among others, economics professor Richard Layard of the London School of Economics urged to measure citizens' quality of life. OECD har i den såkalte «Bedre liv-indeksen» utarbeidet indikatorer på en rekke områder fra sysselsetting og bolig til frivillig aktivitetsliv og miljø, for å forsøke å måle livskvalitet i ulike land. OECD in the so-called "better life index" compiled indicators on a range of areas from employment and housing to volunteer aktivitetsliv and environment, in an attempt to measure quality of life in different countries. KrF fremmet forslag i Stortinget i 2009 om at også Norge burde gjøre dette. KrF proposed in Parliament in 2009 that also Norway should do this. Dette har resultert i en omtale av livskvalitetsindikatorer i Nasjonalbudsjettet. This has resulted in a review of quality of life indicators in the National Budget.

This article appeared on Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway) on 26 August 2016 Link to article

Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
News Posted: 26/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway)

Do we need more goals for society than economic growth?

Therefore, among others, economics professor Richard Layard of the London School of Economics urged to measure citizens' quality of life. OECD har i den såkalte «Bedre liv-indeksen» utarbeidet indikatorer på en rekke områder fra sysselsetting og bolig til frivillig aktivitetsliv og miljø, for å forsøke å måle livskvalitet i ulike land. OECD in the so-called "better life index" compiled indicators on a range of areas from employment and housing to volunteer aktivitetsliv and environment, in an attempt to measure quality of life in different countries. KrF fremmet forslag i Stortinget i 2009 om at også Norge burde gjøre dette. KrF proposed in Parliament in 2009 that also Norway should do this. Dette har resultert i en omtale av livskvalitetsindikatorer i Nasjonalbudsjettet. This has resulted in a review of quality of life indicators in the National Budget.

This article appeared on Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway) on 26 August 2016 Link to article

Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
News Posted: 26/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway)

Do we need more goals for society than economic growth?

Therefore, among others, economics professor Richard Layard of the London School of Economics urged to measure citizens' quality of life. OECD har i den såkalte «Bedre liv-indeksen» utarbeidet indikatorer på en rekke områder fra sysselsetting og bolig til frivillig aktivitetsliv og miljø, for å forsøke å måle livskvalitet i ulike land. OECD in the so-called "better life index" compiled indicators on a range of areas from employment and housing to volunteer aktivitetsliv and environment, in an attempt to measure quality of life in different countries. KrF fremmet forslag i Stortinget i 2009 om at også Norge burde gjøre dette. KrF proposed in Parliament in 2009 that also Norway should do this. Dette har resultert i en omtale av livskvalitetsindikatorer i Nasjonalbudsjettet. This has resulted in a review of quality of life indicators in the National Budget.

This article appeared on Dagsavisen - Nyemeninger (Norway) on 26 August 2016 Link to article

Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
News Posted: 26/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Press Reader

ONS hires former MPC member for its experts panel

Britain's statistics office has recruited a group of economic heavyweights to boost its ability to crunch numbers on the health of the economy. ... Three economics professor have also been recruited to the working group: Thomas Crossley from the University of Essex, Peter Sinclair at the University of Birmingham and David Metcalf at the London School of Economics.

This article was published online by the Press Reader on August 18, 2016
Link to article here

Related links
David Metcalf webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
David Metcalf CEP publications webpage


News Posted: 18/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Brexit and wage inequality

Article by Brian Bell and Stephen Machin

Wage inequality was partly behind the vote for Brexit. This column shows how areas with relatively low median wages were substantially more likely to vote ‘Leave’, and discusses the likely implications of Brexit for wage inequality in the future. Increased likelihood of a recession, a negative shock to trade, reduced migration flows, and the possible loss of passporting rights for the City will all alter the structure of wages in ways that will need to be carefully monitored and studied in due course.

This column first appeared as a chapter in the VoxEU ebook, Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists, available to download free of charge here.


News Posted: 16/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Viet Q.vn (Vietnam)

Tang nang suat lao dong len 800% voi robot naha kho cua My

The likely Locus of search robots and packaging of 25 thousand square meter warehouse helps to increase the productivity of the warehouse up to 800 percent.
A previous study of Georg Graetz scientists and Guy Michaels (UK) shows, the robot had much contribution to the increase in labour productivity. Conducted survey of 14 production-mainly in the industrial sector-in 17 countries (including the United States, 14 countries in Europe, South Korea and Australia) in the years 1993-2007, the research team discovered the density using the robot for the hours of work of all of these countries have increased 150 percent.

This article was published online by VietQ.vn on August 16, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Viet Q.vn (Vietnam)

Tang nang suat lao dong len 800% voi robot naha kho cua My

The likely Locus of search robots and packaging of 25 thousand square meter warehouse helps to increase the productivity of the warehouse up to 800 percent.
A previous study of Georg Graetz scientists and Guy Michaels (UK) shows, the robot had much contribution to the increase in labour productivity. Conducted survey of 14 production-mainly in the industrial sector-in 17 countries (including the United States, 14 countries in Europe, South Korea and Australia) in the years 1993-2007, the research team discovered the density using the robot for the hours of work of all of these countries have increased 150 percent.

This article was published online by VietQ.vn on August 16, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Viet Q.vn (Vietnam)

Tang nang suat lao dong len 800% voi robot naha kho cua My

The likely Locus of search robots and packaging of 25 thousand square meter warehouse helps to increase the productivity of the warehouse up to 800 percent.
A previous study of Georg Graetz scientists and Guy Michaels (UK) shows, the robot had much contribution to the increase in labour productivity. Conducted survey of 14 production-mainly in the industrial sector-in 17 countries (including the United States, 14 countries in Europe, South Korea and Australia) in the years 1993-2007, the research team discovered the density using the robot for the hours of work of all of these countries have increased 150 percent.

This article was published online by VietQ.vn on August 16, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 16/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Pop Off Quotidiano.it (Italy)

Il grande bluff della robotizzazione

Davvero i robot ci ruberanno il lavoro? A che cosa serve davvero l'automazione? Tutte queste predicazioni hanno in comune di invitare i popoli ad abbandonare qualsiasi progetto di poter in qualche modo essere protagonisti del proprio destino
Eppure altre ricerche sono, per contro, nettamente meno allarmiste. Georg Graetz e Guy Michaels non riscontrano ''alcun effetto significativo dei robot industriali per l'occupazione nel suo complesso''.
Will robots really steal your job? Do we really need automation? All of these papers in common invite people to abandon any project
Yet other studies are, however, distinctly less alarmist. Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels have found ''no significant effect of industrial robots for the occupation as a whole''.

This article was publshed online by Pop Off Quotidiano.it (Italy) on August 12, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 12/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Investor's Business Daily - Politics

Will a robot take your job?

In a 2015 study, ''Robots at Work'', economists at Sweden's Uppsala University and the London School of Economics looked at the economic impact of robots from 1993 to 2007. They found that the use of robots in advanced economies led to both higher productivity and wages, but did reduce the hours worked by those in unskilled occupations.

This article was published online by Investor's Business Daily - Politics on August 6, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 06/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Simon Radford blog

Three to read

Three short paragraphs to explain the Brexit vote:
The British people have suffered tremendously since the financial crisis. The real wages of the average person fell by about 10 per cent between 2007 and 2015. This is not about inequality - poor, middle and rich have all lost out. It has been the longest sustained fall in average pay since the Great Depression and it has made people very angry with the establishment - and rightly so. As LSE's Professor Stephen Machin, the new Director of the Centre for Economic Performance has shown, the areas with the biggest falls in average wages were the places most likely to vote for Brexit.

This article was published online on the Simon Radford blog on August 4, 2016
Link to article here

Related articles
Financial Times on June 23, 2016
UK areas with stagnant wages are most anti-EU

Related publications
Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, CEP Brexit Blog, July 2016

Related links
Brian Bell webpage
Stephen Machin webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 04/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Vox

Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists

The June 2016 Brexit referendum saw British voters reject membership of the European Union. Now that a decision has been made, it is time to look forward and find the best solutions for the future of both the UK and the EU. This VoxEU eBook regroups the views of more than a dozen leading economists and specialists on a broad range of issues, from various perspectives.

Trade policy and the City

5. The UK's new trade priorities
Angus Armstrong

6. UK-EU relations after Brexit: What is best for the UK economy?
Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

This article was published by Vox on 1 August 2016
Link to article here

Related articles
Vox on August 1, 2016
A new eBook: Brexit beckons
Link to article here

Related publications
Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.
Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, CEP Brexit Blog, July 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage

Brian Bell webpage
Growth Programme webpage

Stephen Machin webpage
Barbara Petrongolo webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage


News Posted: 01/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

Vox

A new eBook: Brexit beckons

The 23 June 2016 Brexit vote saw British voters reject membership in the European Union. This column introduces a new VoxEU eBook containing 19 essays written by leading economists on a wide array of topics and from a broad range of perspectives.

Trade Policy
The challenges can be useful slotted into three categories:

  • Reconstructing UK-EU trade relations;
  • Disentangling the UK's and the EU's WTO memberships; and
  • Reconstituting the EU's trade agreements with third nations.

  • The first is by far the most important economically, since something over half of the UK's trade in goods and services is with the EU, and the same is true of the UK's foreign investments.
    The chapters by Angus Armstrong, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, Jim Rollo and Alan Winter, Nicolas Crafts, and Simon Evenett all address various aspects of these three challenges.

    Labour Issues
    The chapters by Jonathan Portes, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, and Barbara Petrongolo take a look at labour market issues raised by Brexit. ... Bell and Machin show that areas with relatively low median wages were substantially more likely to vote Leave, and discuss the likely implications of Brexit for wage inequality in the future. Petrongolo argues that immigration has had a positive impact on net fiscal receipts without hurting the labour market prospects of UK-born workers, who are therefore unlikely to benefit from any restrictions imposed on immigration from the EU.

    This article was published online by the Vox on August 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.01, February 2016
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.
    Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, CEP Brexit Blog, July 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage

    Brian Bell webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    Stephen Machin webpage
    Barbara Petrongolo webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/08/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Asian Network

    News

    Swati Dhingra quoted on the impact of Brexit and likely effect on migration.

    This interview was broadcast on BBC Asian Network on July 27, 2016
    Link to broadcast here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Royal Economic Society - Media Briefings

    Misery of work second only to illness: UK evidence

    British people are at their least happy while at work - except when they are sick in bed - according to a study forthcoming in the Economic Journal. The researchers Alex Bryson and George MacKerron analysed more than a million responses uploaded to a smartphone app, called Mappiness, that sporadically asks users questions such as how they are feeling, where they are and what they are doing.

    This media briefing was published online by the Royal Economic Society on July 27, 2016
    Link to the briefing here

    Related publications
    Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187, February 2013
    Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1, Summer 2013

    Related links
    Alex Bryson webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    European migrants are not just paying their way, they're paying our way too

    When politicians speak of a need to 'control' EU immigration, we should be asking why. The evidence shows that free movement of people is working for all of us.
    But the available evidence suggests the overall impact of EU migration is beneficial to the UK. EU migrants are more likely to be in work than UK nationals. And, according tot he UCL Centre for REsearch and Analysis of Migration, EU migrants provide a net economic benefit of £22bn. As the LSE Centre for Economic Performance notes, ''this effects may seem small, [but] in the longer-run impact could be substantial''.

    This article was published by The Independent on July 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Les affaires

    Inégalités: peu à voir avec le sexe, l'ethnie ou l'éducation

    And if income inequality were not related to our kind, our ethnicity or our level of education, but rather to our workplace? Some employers pay better than others. And the gap between those who pay well and those who pay poorly increases more and more.
    Four researchers (Alex Bryson, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Centre for Economic Performance, Richard B. Freeman, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, Erling Barth, Professor at the Institute for Social Research in Oslo and James Davis, Economist at the Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau) have decided to look at inequality through a different bezel: that of the company rather than the individual.

    This article was published online by Les affaires on July 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the US Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James C. Davis and Richard Freeman, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1311, November 2014

    Related links
    Alex Bryson is a CEP alumni
    Richard Freeman webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Metropolitan myths that led to Brexit

    Finally, there is the low reputation of economists, the result of a global financial crisis that only a few in the profession warned us against. But the institutes that analysed the risks and rewards of Brexit can hardly be blamed for that. The Institute for Fiscal Studies is full of experts on tax and household income; the Centre for Economic Performance studies globalisation, technology and education. Blaming these people for not foreseeing the collapse of Lehman Brothers is like blaming a brain surgeon for the spread of obesity.

    This article was published by the Financial Times on July 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Wage inequality: The spatial dimension

    Article by Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James Davis and Richard Freeman
    Income inequality has risen throughout the advanced world. Various explanations have been suggested for this, but these tend to focus on who you are. This column shifts the focus to where you work. Data from the US reveal that over the period 1992-2007, two-thirds of the rise in earnings dispersion was due to increased variation across establishments. Moreover, almost 80% of the increase in earnings dispersion among workers who remained at the same establishment from year to year was due to a widening of wages across establishments rather than within establishments.

    This article was published online by the Vox on July 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the US, Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James C. Davis and Richard Freeman, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1311, November 2014

    Related links
    Alex Bryson webpage
    Richard Freeman webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Wage inequality: The spatial dimension

    Article by Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James Davis and Richard Freeman
    Income inequality has risen throughout the advanced world. Various explanations have been suggested for this, but these tend to focus on who you are. This column shifts the focus to where you work. Data from the US reveal that over the period 1992-2007, two-thirds of the rise in earnings dispersion was due to increased variation across establishments. Moreover, almost 80% of the increase in earnings dispersion among workers who remained at the same establishment from year to year was due to a widening of wages across establishments rather than within establishments.

    This article was published online by the Vox on July 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the US, Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James C. Davis and Richard Freeman, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1311, November 2014

    Related links
    Alex Bryson webpage
    Richard Freeman webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Wage inequality: The spatial dimension

    Article by Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James Davis and Richard Freeman
    Income inequality has risen throughout the advanced world. Various explanations have been suggested for this, but these tend to focus on who you are. This column shifts the focus to where you work. Data from the US reveal that over the period 1992-2007, two-thirds of the rise in earnings dispersion was due to increased variation across establishments. Moreover, almost 80% of the increase in earnings dispersion among workers who remained at the same establishment from year to year was due to a widening of wages across establishments rather than within establishments.

    This article was published online by the Vox on July 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the US, Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James C. Davis and Richard Freeman, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1311, November 2014

    Related links
    Alex Bryson webpage
    Richard Freeman webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Wage inequality: The spatial dimension

    Article by Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James Davis and Richard Freeman
    Income inequality has risen throughout the advanced world. Various explanations have been suggested for this, but these tend to focus on who you are. This column shifts the focus to where you work. Data from the US reveal that over the period 1992-2007, two-thirds of the rise in earnings dispersion was due to increased variation across establishments. Moreover, almost 80% of the increase in earnings dispersion among workers who remained at the same establishment from year to year was due to a widening of wages across establishments rather than within establishments.

    This article was published online by the Vox on July 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the US, Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James C. Davis and Richard Freeman, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1311, November 2014

    Related links
    Alex Bryson webpage
    Richard Freeman webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Think you know why people actually voted for Brexit? Think again.

    The dominant narrative suggests it was a 'howl of pain' about immigration, stagnant wages and an out-of-control housing market - but figures suggest that's not really true
    Statistical work by the labour economists Brian Bell and Stephen Machin suggests that areas where average wage growth have been weak for the past two decades were more likely to vote Leave.

    This article was published in The Independent on July 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and Wage Inequality, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, CEP Brexit blog, August 4, 2016

    Related links
    Brian Bell webpage
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Admin5.com (China)

    Artificial intelligence is bound to exacerbate inequalities but why are economists still for it platforms

    Artificial intelligence is bound to exacerbate inequalities but why are economists still for it platforms
    That is to say, technical parts of the economy made great contribution to productivity growth. In 2015 a 17-country study found that between 1993 and 2007, average annual GDP growth rate of the robot industry for these countries has contributed 0.4%, this time the national GDP growth rate of more than one-tenth (Graetz and Michaels 2015).

    This article was published online by Admin5.com (China) on July 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Admin5.com (China)

    Artificial intelligence is bound to exacerbate inequalities but why are economists still for it platforms

    Artificial intelligence is bound to exacerbate inequalities but why are economists still for it platforms
    That is to say, technical parts of the economy made great contribution to productivity growth. In 2015 a 17-country study found that between 1993 and 2007, average annual GDP growth rate of the robot industry for these countries has contributed 0.4%, this time the national GDP growth rate of more than one-tenth (Graetz and Michaels 2015).

    This article was published online by Admin5.com (China) on July 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Why finishing as runner up may be the worst place of all

    British athletes heading for the Rio Olympics next month will be dreaming of winning a gold medal. But those who cannot bag the top spot may find they are happier with a bronze than coming second. For those who do end up with silver, it might have been better for their mental state if they had been soundly beaten - sometimes, it seems, it is better to lose by a lot than a little. New research suggests that athletes' perception of their achievements is dependent on what they think might have been. A team at the Centre for Economic Performance, based at the London School of Economics, examined the perceived happiness levels of Team Great Britain medallists at the London 2012 Olympic Games.

    This article was published by The Guardian on July 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Without My medal on My Mind: Counterfactual Thinking and Other Determinants of Athlete Emotions, Paul Dolan, Chloe Foy, Georgios Kavetsos and Laura Kudrna, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1436, June 2016

    Related links
    Georgios Kavetsos webpage
    Paul Dolan webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Why finishing as runner up may be the worst place of all

    British athletes heading for the Rio Olympics next month will be dreaming of winning a gold medal. But those who cannot bag the top spot may find they are happier with a bronze than coming second. For those who do end up with silver, it might have been better for their mental state if they had been soundly beaten - sometimes, it seems, it is better to lose by a lot than a little. New research suggests that athletes' perception of their achievements is dependent on what they think might have been. A team at the Centre for Economic Performance, based at the London School of Economics, examined the perceived happiness levels of Team Great Britain medallists at the London 2012 Olympic Games.

    This article was published by The Guardian on July 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Without My medal on My Mind: Counterfactual Thinking and Other Determinants of Athlete Emotions, Paul Dolan, Chloe Foy, Georgios Kavetsos and Laura Kudrna, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1436, June 2016

    Related links
    Georgios Kavetsos webpage
    Paul Dolan webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Brexit and the UK labour market

    Immigration was at the heart of the Brexit debate. In this video, Barbara Petrongolo discusses different policies the UK could implement in terms of immigration. This video is part of the ''Econ after Brexit'' series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

    The film 'Econ after Brexit: Labour Markets' was recorded by Vox on July 14, 2016
    Link to the video here

    Related links
    Barbara Petrongolo webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Barbara Petrongolo CEP publications webpage


    News Posted: 14/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Business Day Live

    Are economists at fault for Brexit?

    John van Reenen, the outgoing director of the London School of Economics’s Centre for Economic Performance, doesn’t think the profession should be too down on itself. Had economists engaged more "in my frank view, it would not have made a jot of difference".

    This article appeared in Business Day Live on 13 July. Link to article

    Related Links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth webpage
    News Posted: 13/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CVER News

    CVER Discussion Paper Published

    Post-16 education and training is still socially and academically divided, research shows
    Thousands of 16 year-olds are stuck in an educational ‘revolving door,’ returning year after year to study low-level qualifications.
    And apprenticeships are still failing to attract sufficient numbers of better-off, better-qualified applicants, according to research published today from the Centre for Vocational Education Research (CVER) at the London School of Economics.

    "Post-Compulsory Education in England: Choices and Implications" by C. Hupkau, S. McNally, J. Ruiz-Valenzuela, and G. Ventura, CVER Discussion Paper 001
    News Posted: 08/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    greenreport.it (Italy)

    Brexit, cause e conseguenze demografiche viste dall'Italia

    Confusion reigns
    ... belonging to Europe forced Britain to accept internal migratory movements, students, workers, entrepreneurs, family. Between 1995 and 2015, the number of foreigners from other EU countries increased from 0.9 to 3.3 million; at the latter date, 29 percent were Polish, 13 percent Irish, and then with decreasing rates from 7 to 5 percent, Lithuanians, Romanians, Italians, Portuguese, French, German and Spanish. ... the educational level is higher on average. The immigration of Europeans has made a leap in 2004 (with the arrival in Europe of 10 new countries, including Poland), followed by a decline with the onset of the crisis in 2007.

    This article published by greenreport.it (Italy) on July 6, 2016 cites research by the Centre for Economic Performance
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, June 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 06/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Royal Economic Society Newsletter

    Conference Report 2016

    The Society's Annual Conference was held at the University of Sussex, 21-23 March. This report was prepared by Ferdinando Giugliano, focusing on four fields of economic research: development economics; political economy; labour economics and macroeconomics.
    Development Economics
    In a separate session, there was one other interesting piece of work on development economics. A paper by Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei (both Queen Mary, University of London) looked at the role played by mobile phones in protests in Africa. It tests the widely-held hypothesis that mobile phones have acted as 'liberation technology', helping citizens who are dissatisfied with their governments to mobilise against them. The two authors find that on average mobile phone coverage does not lead to more protests. However, during a downturn, the spread of mobile phones is associated with more episodes of organised political discontent. One hypothesis is that portable devices make individuals better informed about the state of the economy. Technology may therefore allow the channelling of discontent when this is caused by some external factor, such as a recession.
    Political Economy
    John Van Reenen and Swati Dhingra (both LSE) presented a study from the Centre for Economic Performance looking at the costs of Brexit. They found that this could be between 1.3 per cent and 2.6 per cent of gross domestic product just from a simple static model that only looks at trade. However, the cost could rise to between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent of GDP if the dynamic, long-term losses are included. While these estimates are obviously imperfect, their central finding that Britain would suffer non-trivial losses in case of exit appears hard to rebut.
    Labour Economics
    Stephen Machin (UCL, LSE) showed that in the UK the minimum wage has gone up since its introduction in 1999 by more than the average wage. Still, this increase has had no significant detrimental effects on employment. However, the introduction of the new 'living wage' announced by George Osborne this year poses significant challenges. The new minimum wage will be set at £7.20 an hour this year and will rise to £9 an hour by 2020, lifting the coverage of the living wage substantially. The question is therefore whether this new, higher, floor will have significant effects on employment and profits. The Office for Budget Responsibility only forecasts a reduction of around 60,000 jobs. Conversely, the value of shares of low-wage companies fell rather significantly on the day of Osborne's announcement, offering provisional evidence that profits may fall in the future. Machin has looked at the company accounts published since the announcement finding that, indeed, most companies plan to take a hit on profits. However, there may still be an adjustment in terms of employment for those companies that earn little or no profits at all, for example, care homes.

    This Conference Report was published by The Royal Economic Society in its July Newsletter
    Link to the Report here

    Related publications
    Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa, Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1419, March 2016
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.08, June 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Marco Manacorda webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Internazionale

    Come cambiano le regole per gli immigrati dopo la Brexit

    For many it is a windfall: according to the research of the Centre for Economic Performance, a research centre, EU migrants are more likely, compared to the local population, to have received a university education or to have a job, and you are less likely to require public subsidies.

    This article was published online by Internazionale (Italy) on July 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/07/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE Business Review

    The UK suffers a shortage of nurses

    David Metcalf writes about the Migration Advisory Committee's review of the shortage occupation list
    The MAC recommends placing nurses on the country's 'shortage occupation list' or 'SOL': they are skilled, in shortage and - for a little while - it is sensible to add them. But we make this recommendation with considerable reluctance. It seems to us that the shortage is mostly down to factors that should have been anticipated by the Department of Health and related bodies. Furthermore, there seems to be an automatic presumption that non-EEA skilled migration provides the sector with a 'get out of jail free' card.

    This article was published online by the LSE Business Review on June 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    A shortage of nurses?, David Metcalf. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    This article is based on the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) report on nursing shortage

    Related links
    Professor Sir David Metcalf webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Newsweek

    Don't Believe the Brexit Prophecies of Economic Doom

    We were told that the consensus of economic experts were overwhelmingly opposed to a Brexit. Lauded institutions—from the IMF, OECD to the Treasury and London School of Economics—produced damning forecasts that ranged from economic hardship to total disaster if the U.K

    This article appeared in Newsweek on 28 June 2016. Link to article

    Related publications See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 28/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Huffinton Post - Korea

    Brexit will show what we have on the sheet

    British unemployment shows the transition graph of the influx immigrants. 2005-2010 immigrant unemployment rate is rapidly increased rather than fell. ©Jonathan Wadsworth, Center for Economic Performance. [Text with Figure 4: Unemployment of UK-born and EU immigration, 1975-2015, from CEP Brexit Analysis, Paper No.5, May 2016.]

    This article was published online by The Huffington Post - Korea on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    FT.com

    UK Economy: Brexit in seven charts - the economic impact

    Millions of words on the topic - including economists' majority view that leaving the bloc will slow growth and the Leave campaign's counterarguments that Britain will prosper - could be replaced by seven charts. These sum up the arguments over what breaking up with Brussels will really mean for jobs, growth and public finances.

    Do migrants reduce UK wages?
    The chart [chart sourced from the CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05] shows the change in the share of EU immigrants for every local area in the UK (left to right) and the change in local wage levels (up and down). There is no correlation, indicating that areas with high levels of immigration do not have lower wage growth. There is no indication that immigration reduces wages.

    This article was published by FT.com on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See Figure 9 on page 10 for sourced chart.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    What happens to EU migrants in Britain

    ''IMMIGRATION, immigration, immigration'', shouted a headline in the Sun, a right-wing tabloid newspaper, the week that Britain voted to leave the European Union. It followed weeks of campaigning from the Leave side assuring voters that they would ''take back control'' and restrict EU migration if Britain left the club. Now that the referendum has just been won in favour of Brexit, what will happen to the EU migrants currently in Britain - and to British nationals living in the EU? Some 3m EU nationals live in Britain, compared with 1.2m Britons who live on the continent. The volume of EU migrants coming to Britain has increased since the club was expanded in 2004. Last year net migration from the EU was at a historic high, mostly because fewer Brits were moving abroad. Many consider this a boon: according to research from the Centre for Economic Performance, a think-tank, EU migrants are more likely to be university-educated, less likely to claim benefits and more likely to be in a job than the native-born population.

    This article was published online by the Economist on June 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Forbes Online

    Which Management Practices Are Most Beneficial To Firm Performance?

    Along with colleagues Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University, and John Van Reenen, London School of Economics, Sadun challenges this view in a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, Management as a Technology?

    This article appeared in Forbes on 27 June 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    Management as a Technology? Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun, John Van Reenen, June 2016 Paper No' CEPDP1433

    Related Links
    Nicholas Bloom webpage
    Raffaella Sadun webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth webpage

    News Posted: 27/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Why did people really vote for Brexit? If we don't face the psychological reasons, we'll never bring Britain together

    Why did so many millions of people vote to leave the European Union? ... Some new research by the labour market economists Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, seen by The Independent, suggests the Leave vote tended to be bigger in areas of the country where wage growth has been weakest since 1997. This would seem to support the popular theory that this was essentially a giant protest vote against the political class by people who feel economically ''left behind'' in modern Britain.

    This article was published by The Independent on June 26, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brian Bell and Stephen Machin CEP publications webpage

    Related links
    Brian Bell webpage
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 26/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    politics.co.uk

    No more excuses: stand up for immigrants

    Labour MPs now walk around saying that immigration reduces domestic wages, that the rich man has got a cheaper plumber, but the indigenous plumber has had to reduce his fees. Usually this argument is framed as an assault on the 'white working class', as if we don't have any black or Indian or Pakistani or Bangladeshi working class people in this country. Well that's a lie too. We have no idea if immigration reduces wages and in fact many studies show it does the precise opposite. PwC research suggests it raises the median income by 0.7%. LSE found areas with high immigration did not have lower wage growth.

    This article was published online by politics.co.uk on June 25, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related news article
    EU migrants have no negative effect on UK wages, says LSE’, The Guardian, 11 May 2016

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 25/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Daily Dot

    Brits are Googling 'what happens if we leave the EU?' one day after voting to do exactly that

    Last night, as it became clear that Britain had voted to exit the European Union, Google Trends reported a 250 percent spike in searches for ''what happens if we leave the EU?''
    Markets are crashing around the world, Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned, and things have become uncertain for immigrants to the U.K. and U.K. citizens living abroad in the EU. And Scotland will likely take this opportunity to reconsider that whole independence question. How come nobody predicted this?
    Oh, wait, everybody predicted this.
    ''It's likely that Brexit (and what an ugly neologism it is) would lead to plummeting stock markets and an economic recession, with losses to GDP calculated by the Centre for Economic Performance at up to 9.5% - worse than the 2008 financial crisis,'' wrote Alex Preston in Guardian, more than a year ago. The article was headlined ''What would happen if Britain left the EU?'' and is one of the top Google results for the question.

    This article was published online by the Daily Dot on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LiveMint.com

    Time to clear Brexit's poisonous air

    According to an analysis, Brexit and the impact on immigration, published by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, EU immigrants are ''more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education, compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About one-third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born''.

    This article was published online by LiveMint.com on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    La Izquierda Diario (Spanish)

    El Brexit, mala noticia para el segundo semestre

    First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to investment by the immediate context of uncertainty generated by the Brexit.

    This article was published online by La Izquierda Diario (Spain) on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    La Izquierda Diario (Spanish)

    El Brexit, mala noticia para el segundo semestre

    First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to investment by the immediate context of uncertainty generated by the Brexit.

    This article was published online by La Izquierda Diario (Spain) on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    La Izquierda Diario (Spanish)

    El Brexit, mala noticia para el segundo semestre

    First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to investment by the immediate context of uncertainty generated by the Brexit.

    This article was published online by La Izquierda Diario (Spain) on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    La Izquierda Diario (Spanish)

    El Brexit, mala noticia para el segundo semestre

    First views on the global economic impact of such episode refer to one (even minor) world growth rate. Thus for example claimed John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics, who said the effect ''disincentive'' to investment by the immediate context of uncertainty generated by the Brexit.

    This article was published online by La Izquierda Diario (Spain) on June 24, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 24/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    UK areas with stagnant wages are most anti-EU

    A feeling of anger and frustration with the European Union is strongest in areas of Britain that have seen wages stagnate in recent years, according to research commissioned by the Financial Times. Two leading labour market economists, Brian Bell and Stephen Machin, found a statistically significant link between wage growth, or the lack of it, and the proportion of the vote secured by the anti-EU UK Independence Party in the 2015 general election.

    This article was published by the Financial Times on June 23, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brian Bell and Stephen Machin CEP publications webpage

    Related links
    Brian Bell webpage
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 23/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

    Foreign investment brings many benefits to the UK, including higher pay and productivity. But a Brexit vote could end it all, write Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. First, not being in the single market will make the UK a less attractive export platform; second, multinationals have complex supply chains and costs which would be more difficult to manage if the UK left the EU; third, the uncertainty over the UK's trade arrangements after a Brexit will decrease its appeal.

    This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03, April 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.03
    See the complete series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Quartz

    A London without immigrants would not be London

    There is little evidence to support the former. Roughly 2.2 million EU nationals work in the UK, comprising 6.6% of the workforce, according to the FT report. Another report from the London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance found that while EU migration has increased and a third of EU migrants live in London, ''areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers.'' Indeed, the authors noted that ''immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities.'' To assume otherwise is ''lump of labour fallacy'', the idea that the number of jobs in an area is fixed and immigrants push other job seekers out.

    This article was published online by Quartz on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Juice Brighton (Radio) - News P.M.

    Gove has 'lost it' over Nazi comparisons

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) ...

    This article was published online by Juice Brighton (Radio) on June 22, 2016
    Link to broadcast here

    Related publications

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Saul Estrin webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    New Statesman

    Never mind a Brexit recession, Leave voters don't believe in climate change

    Facts appear not to be a major priority for many Leave voters. That is clear when you look at science. In a ComRes poll of 1,616 prospective voters, Leave supporters were revealed to be much more likely to question science, climate change and evolution. ... Drawing the line directly from science to the uncomfortable referendum debate we find ourselves in may not be clear cut. But the case of NHS statistics show the way people choose to judge - or not to judge - facts has everything to do with the referendum debate. After all, there is overwhelming consensus of the damage Britain could do to its economy by leaving the EU. There is evidence from the Bank of England, HM Treasury, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, PwC, Oxford Economics, the Centre for Economic Performance and others.

    This article was published online by the New Statesman on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Saul Estrin webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Wall Street Journal

    Brexit's real impact would be gradual and global

    The Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics finds that EU immigrants to Britain are better educated and more likely to ...

    This article was published online by The Wall Street Journal on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here [Subscription needed to access full article.]

    Also in
    The Australian
    Brexit's real impact would be gradual and global

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis No.05, May 2016
    Full series of CEP Brexit Analyses can be seen here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Week

    The EU isn't snookering Britain. Britain is hoodwinking the EU

    Britain never joined the euro currency union, freeing it of all sorts of complicated policy commitments that the rest of the EU is obliged to abide by. But despite staying on the pound, Britain still has full access to Europe's ''single market''. Essentially, this single market allows all EU member countries to move goods, services, capital, and people between each other without barrier, tax, or tariff. ''That single market is about half a billion people,'' [John] Van Reenen said. It's an open question just how much benefit national economies derive from being able to participate in this sort of free trade. But they clearly derive some benefit. And Van Reenen's group thinks it's a lot.

    This article was published online by The Week on June 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit: the final assessment, John Van Reenen. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016
    BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, June 2016

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Britain more prosperous 'IN'

    The Telegraph

    We are economists who care about Britain and its future. We feel compelled to speak out on the risks of Leaving and opportunities from Remaining in the EU. If Britain votes to Leave we believe that:

    • A recession causing job losses will become significantly more likely due to the shock and uncertainty of Brexit. With interest rates near zero and debt still high, the Bank of England and Government would have limited ability to prevent such a recession.

    • A drop in the pound and increased tariffs on imports will cause the costs of everyday goods to go up increasing inflation.

    • Investment in the UK will drop harming innovation and future job growth.

    • These impacts will fall most heavily on households with middle and low incomes.

    • Less growth means less government revenue which means higher taxes and less to spend on services like the NHS.

    Leave will say these points are 'Project Fear'. We say they are 'Project Reality'.

    This open letter was published by The Telegraph on June 21, 2016
    Link to the letter here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Richard Layard webpage
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Sandra McNally webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Education and Skills Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Daily Mail online

    Things you need to read about Brexit: Best articles to help you decide

    Things to read about Brexit

    Below is a selection of informative things to read about Brexit that can help you decide. Please suggest your own in comments, but you cannot post links there. You can send links to editor@thisismoney.co.uk with Brexit articles in the headline and we will see if they are worth adding.
    LSE professor: Why I will vote Remain in the referendum
    London School of Economics Nicholas Barr runs through his thoughts with some good facts and explanations that weigh up key issues.

    This article was published by The Daily Mail online on June 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related articles
    Letter to friends: this is why I will vote Remain in the referendum, Nicholas Barr, LSE BrexitVote blog on May 27, 2016 cites CEP Brexit research.

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The New Yorker

    Murder of British M.P. heightens uncertainty over Brexit vote

    The failure to make a case for the E.U. had left a big opportunity for Johnson and Nigel Farage, the head of the U.K. Independence Party, to argue that Britain doesn't get anything out of its membership except bureaucratic diktats from Brussels, and boatloads of immigrants from Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe, who fill the welfare rolls and depress wages. These claims are largely false: a recent paper by three economists at the London School of Economics concluded, ''EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born.'' But, as the polls indicate, the anti-E.U. fabrications are widely believed.

    This article was published online by the New Yorker on June 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Leave to exit: how your money might be affected by Brexit

    Last year, a report from the Bank of England supported his comment, suggesting that the wages of low-paid employees in catering, hospitality and care have been driven down by increased competition from EU workers.
    However, the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, claimed that areas of the UK with large recent increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in pay as a result, but that wages fell as a result of the global financial crisis. It added: ''Immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities.''

    This article was published by The Independent on June 15, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Neue Zurcher Zeitung

    Brexit-Szenarien: Was der Brexit fur die EU-Wirtschaft bedeuten wurde

    Relevant studies, among other things by the Bertelsmann Foundation in collaboration with the Ifo Institute, the Center for economic performance at the London School of Economics and the rating agency Standard & Poor's, come in the tendency to similar results: the economic consequences would be for the EU-27 is less severe than for Britain itself, but on balance but negative.

    This article was published online by Neue Zurcher Zeitung (Germany) on June 14, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    A l'encontre

    Le grand bluff de la robotisation

    The big bluff of robotisation
    Numerous studies announce us that Automation is going to lead to a massacre of jobs. At the same time, the productivity slowdown worries official economists and Christiane Lagarde, President of the IMF, evokes even a ''new poor''. This article talks about this contradiction. ... Other contributions are, however, much less alarmist. Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels found ''no significant effect of industrial robots on overall employment''.

    This article was published online by A l'encontre (France) on June 10, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 10/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    Vote Leave's anti-immigration system is deeply flawed

    Study after study confirms that EU migrants have an overwhelmingly positive effect on the British economy. They have a higher employment rate (78.2%) than people born in the UK (72.5%), those from Poland and other A8 accession economies especially so (81.9%). Their hard work neither deprives British workers of jobs nor depresses local wages, as a new study by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) shows. On the contrary, EU migrants tend to enhance the productivity of British workers, and hence their pay.

    This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on June 10, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth. Article in CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 10/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    World Economic Forum

    What's the real impact on economies of the minimum wage?

    Economists care a great deal about the minimum wage because it is a policy prescription that increasingly affects a large portion of the workforce and because it is a clear case of government intervention, imposing a floor on the market price of labor. Minimum wages therefore offer a policy tool to test theories about how the labor market operates. In a new working paper, Alan Manning of the London School of Economics argues that a clear signal of the negative employment effects of the minimum wage is ''elusive,'' which should not be surprising if we think about the mechanisms underlying competition in the labor market.

    This article was published online by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth on June 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The elusive employment effect of the minimum wage, Alan Manning, Washington Center for Equitable Growth Working Paper 2016-06, June 2016

    Related links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Straits Times (Singapore)

    Producitivity is not just a numbers game

    Intuitively, automation would lead to higher labour productivity. For instance, with labour-assisting technology such as autonomous drone waiters by local firms, we would expect a fall in the number of waiters serving the same number of customers. A 2015 study by Graetz and Michaels further provides empirical evidence from 14 industries in 17 developed countries that industrial robots do increase labour productivity. Using data from the International Federation of Robotics, it is shown that using robots within manufacturing accounted for 16 per cent of its labour productivity growth between 1993 and 2007.

    This article was published online by the Straits Times (Singapore) on June 8, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    Robots at Work, Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 08/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Reader's Digest

    5 Scientific Reasons to Feel Optimistic on a Rainy Day

    Your perception of the weather is what brings about negative feelings, the study authors suspect. “If it is sunny every day you get used to it and the sunshine doesn’t make you any happier,” Paul Dolan, professor of behavioral science at the London School of Economics, said to the Telegraph

    This article appeared in Reader's Digest on 6 June 2016. Link to article

    Related Links
    Paul Dolan webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage
    News Posted: 06/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Ledbury Reporter

    Polish residents who have made Herefordshire home speak out about what Brexit would mean for them

    Recent research by the London School of Economics found that migrants have had no negative effect on UK wages. The research blamed the 2008 recession for lower real salaries rather than a rise in foreign workers, who paid more into UK economy than they took out.

    This article appeared in the Ledbury Reporter on 5 June 2016.Link to article

    Related publications
    ‘Immigration and the UK Labour Market’ Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Election Analysis No.19, May 2015

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 05/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    The fatal contradictions in the Remain and Leave camps

    Even aside from the economic consequences of a Leave vote (and read this LSE demolition of the Brexit case), the immediate future for Britain could be very ugly indeed.

    This article was published by The Economist on June 3, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No. 6, May 2016
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 03/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Predictions of recession if UK leaves EU based on 'bizarre assumptions'

    Economists for Brexit group claims that downturn would be avoided if Britain removed all trade barriers after leaving EU
    Economists campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union have accused the Treasury and international institutions of ''groupthink'' in a report that says growth would be boosted if all trade barriers were removed after a leave vote in this month's referendum. ... Prof Patrick Minford said all the studies showing that leaving the EU would have detrimental consequences for the economy were based on the ''same flawed model'' and the ''same damaging assumptions''. ... ''In recent weeks, there has been a relentless stream of output from modelling groups on the topic of Brexit - all of it negative. This has included long-term and short-term reports from not merely the Treasury but also the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, PWC, Oxford Economics, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, the OECD and the IMF,'' Minford said.

    This article was published by The Guardian on June 2, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Holger Breinlich webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 02/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    IN Facts

    EU immigrants aren't taking Brits' jobs

    Myth: EU immigrants are taking Brits' jobs
    InFact: Researchers at Oxford, the LSE and NIESR agree; immigration doesn't affect British employment. Meanwhile, Brexit would hit jobs.

    Intuitively, if immigrants are taking jobs from British workers, it would seem odd that we're seeing a record high employment rate of 74.2% at a time when immigration is high. This intuition is borne out by a string of academic studies - from the Centre for Economic Policy[sic] at the London School of Economics, the Institute for the Study of Labour, and the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford - that show EU migrants aren't putting Brits out of work.
    ...''even in the short term EU migration does not appear to have had a negative impact on the employment outcomes of UK natives''. This view is shared by the Centre for Economic Policy [sic], which concluded that ''we can confidently say that the empirical evidence shows that EU immigration has not had significantly negative effects on average employment, wages, inequality or public services at the local level for the UK-born.''

    This article was published online by IN Facts on June 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Belfast News Letter

    Brexit campaign falls on poor grasp 'basic facts' says report

    Economics experts have blasted key assumptions underpinning the Brexit campaign's financial arguments in favour of leaving the EU. The report by the London School of Economics and Political Science's Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been seized on by the Remain campaign to back their warnings that exiting the EU is too dangerous.

    This article was published online by Belfast News Letter on June 1, 2016
    Read more: ...

    Related publications
    Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.06, May 2016
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/06/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg News

    Some cold, hard facts for Brexiteers: Europe's richest nations have a high concentration of foreigners

    The LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said earlier this month that a reduction in immigration into the U.K. if the country votes for a Brexit wouldn't lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in Britain.

    This article was published by Bloomberg News online on May 31, 2016
    Link to article here

    Associated Article
    May 11, 2016
    Bloomberg News online
    'Post-Brexit Immigration Cut 'Wouldn't Boost Living Standards'
    Read full article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 31/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    lenabellina blog

    That'll do, chimps

    The second programme I heard and was inspired by was this week's Radio 4 'All in the Mind'. The key messages here also chimed with much of my own thinking about the purpose of education, the pressures created by assessment in schools and the need to focus on wellbeing in schools. The programme included a discussion around tests and exams and the mental health of children which involved Lord Layard from The London School of Economics, Dr Berry Billingsley, Associate Professor of Science Education and Reading University and her colleague Tim Williams who is a clinical and educational psychologist. ... Lord Richard Layard who directs the Wellbeing Programme at the London School of Economics then spoke about a project called 'Healthy Mind' which is working with 30 schools around London to try and get data in relation to this issue. Hs opening statement: ''We are trying to help people learn how to live and not just how to pass exams.''

    This article was published online on the lenabellina blog on May 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related broadcast
    The full BBC Radio 4 'All in the Mind' Episode can be found here

    Related links
    Richard Layard webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    lenabellina blog

    That'll do, chimps

    The second programme I heard and was inspired by was this week's Radio 4 'All in the Mind'. The key messages here also chimed with much of my own thinking about the purpose of education, the pressures created by assessment in schools and the need to focus on wellbeing in schools. The programme included a discussion around tests and exams and the mental health of children which involved Lord Layard from The London School of Economics, Dr Berry Billingsley, Associate Professor of Science Education and Reading University and her colleague Tim Williams who is a clinical and educational psychologist. ... Lord Richard Layard who directs the Wellbeing Programme at the London School of Economics then spoke about a project called 'Healthy Mind' which is working with 30 schools around London to try and get data in relation to this issue. Hs opening statement: ''We are trying to help people learn how to live and not just how to pass exams.''

    This article was published online on the lenabellina blog on May 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related broadcast
    The full BBC Radio 4 'All in the Mind' Episode can be found here

    Related links
    Richard Layard webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE Business Review blog

    How do ‘Economists for Brexit' manage to defy the laws of gravity?

    The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the degree of impoverishment (for example, Dhingra et al, 2016a; OECD, 2016; HM Treasury, 2016; PWC, 2016; NIESR, 2016). Perhaps the one exception is the recent and much publicised work of 'Economists for Brexit' (2016). Since any coherent economic case for leaving the EU was been largely 'missing in action', it is refreshing to get some clarity over the Leave campaign's vision of the UK's post-Brexit economic arrangements. The only modelling details provided by Economists for Brexit come from Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff University (Minford, 2015; 2016; Minford et al, 2016). He argues that Brexit will raise the UK's welfare by 4% as a result of increased trade.

    This article was published online by the LSE Business Review blog on May 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.06, May 2016
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE Business Review blog

    How do ‘Economists for Brexit' manage to defy the laws of gravity?

    The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the degree of impoverishment (for example, Dhingra et al, 2016a; OECD, 2016; HM Treasury, 2016; PWC, 2016; NIESR, 2016). Perhaps the one exception is the recent and much publicised work of 'Economists for Brexit' (2016). Since any coherent economic case for leaving the EU was been largely 'missing in action', it is refreshing to get some clarity over the Leave campaign's vision of the UK's post-Brexit economic arrangements. The only modelling details provided by Economists for Brexit come from Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff University (Minford, 2015; 2016; Minford et al, 2016). He argues that Brexit will raise the UK's welfare by 4% as a result of increased trade.

    This article was published online by the LSE Business Review blog on May 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.06, May 2016
    The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Left Foot Forward

    European freedom of movement is a class issue

    Last week yet another report, this time from the London School of Economics, concluded that there is no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs or wages.

    This article apperaed in Left Foot Forward on 27 May 2016 Link to article

    Related publications
    ‘Immigration and the UK Labour Market’, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Election Analysis No.19, May 2015

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 27/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Stuff.co.nz (New Zealand)

    Business Day - Janine Starks: The rise of the kipper children, sucking your wallet dry

    In keeping with the fishy origins, it seems "kippers" are on the rise. Kippers? Yes, you heard it correctly. Some wag has come up with Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings. It's even better than generation app – Adults whose Parents Pay.

    The worst offenders in the world seem to be the Italians with a reported eight out of 10 men aged 18 to 30 living with their mammas.

    Unfortunately the researchers Manacorda and Moretti don't give us the stats on women, but Britain's Office of National Statistics reports twice as many male kippers than female kippers.


    News Posted: 26/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Washington Post

    Scientists have figured out exactly how much fun it is to get drunk

    In other words, most people get drunk because it's fun. This is why some new research from Britain is so important: It attempts to quantify exactly how much happiness we derive from that glass of wine or bottle of beer. And it does so using a massive real-time data set — the Mappiness app, a free iPhone app that pings people a few random times a day and asks them how happy they are on a scale of 1 to 100.

    This article appeared in the Washington Post on 24 May 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    Are you happy while you work? Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1, Summer 2013
    This article summarises Are you happy while you work? by Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187, February 2013

    Related links
    Alex Bryson CEP Alumni
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 24/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Daily Mail

    Tories at war: Iain Duncan Smith accuses former Cabinet colleague of being two-faced over the EU as tensions escalate with a month to go before

    Responding to Hilton’s article, Javid said: “Steve is entitled to his view … the central issue here is that economically, we are far better off being part of this single market … Now you have the Bank of England, the IMF [International Monetary Fund], the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development], the London School of Economics, the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility], the IFS [Institute for Fiscal Studies], every one of our allies, every one of our trading partners and that is not a conspiracy, that’s a consensus about what would happen if we left the EU.”

    This article was published by the Daily Mail on May 23, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

    Related Links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times of Malta Online

    What's at stake in the UK's EU vote

    The claim, however, that migration is a drain on the welfare state is false. EU migrants for the most part move to Britain to work, and a study by the London School of Economics has shown that they are net contribu¬tors to the economy as a result of the taxes they pay.

    This article appeared in the Times of Malta Online on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times of Malta Online

    What's at stake in the UK's EU vote

    The claim, however, that migration is a drain on the welfare state is false. EU migrants for the most part move to Britain to work, and a study by the London School of Economics has shown that they are net contribu¬tors to the economy as a result of the taxes they pay.

    This article appeared in the Times of Malta Online on 23 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 23/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Liberation technology: mobile phones and political mobilisation in Africa

    Article by Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei
    Digital technologies have been widely used for political activism in recent years, including during the Arab Spring, the Occupy Wall Street movement, and the Indignados movement in Spain. This column reports research showing that the growing use of mobile phones in Africa leads to more political protests during recessions and periods of national crisis. The mobilising potential of digital technologies is more pronounced in autocratic countries and those where the raditional media are under state control, suggesting that this technology may play a key role in fostering political freedom.

    This article was published online by Vox on May 22, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa, Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1419, March 2016

    Related links
    Marco Manacorda webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 22/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Are EU migrants really taking British jobs and pushing down wages?

    The most recent research from the centre for economic performance at the London School of Economics says ''the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.'' ... The LSE's Jonathan Wadsworth said: ''The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off. So, far from EU immigration being a ''necessary evil'' that we pay to get access to the greater trade and foreign investment generated by the EU single market, immigration is at worse neutral, and at best, another economic benefit.''

    This article was published in The Guardian on May 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage

    News Posted: 20/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC 6 o'clock News

    BBC 1

    John Van Reenen interviewed about migration figures

    This programme was broadcast on 19 May 2016 (no link available)

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage

    News Posted: 19/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Number of EU nationals working in UK reaches record level

    Jane Collins, employment spokesman for the pro-Brexit United Kingdom Independence party, said the 2.1m EU nationals working in Britain were ''a huge boon to multinational companies who can exploit the oversupply of labour to keep their wages low.'' However, John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, rebuffed that argument and said workers would suffer badly in the event of Brexit. ''There is no evidence that EU immigration does much harm to the jobs or pay of British people. By contrast, Brexit will inflict major damage on the real wages of ordinary workers by damaging trade, investment and productivity.''

    This article was published by The Financial Times on May 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Number of EU nationals working in UK reaches record level

    Jane Collins, employment spokesman for the pro-Brexit United Kingdom Independence party, said the 2.1m EU nationals working in Britain were ''a huge boon to multinational companies who can exploit the oversupply of labour to keep their wages low.'' However, John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, rebuffed that argument and said workers would suffer badly in the event of Brexit. ''There is no evidence that EU immigration does much harm to the jobs or pay of British people. By contrast, Brexit will inflict major damage on the real wages of ordinary workers by damaging trade, investment and productivity.''

    This article was published by The Financial Times on May 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Conversation

    Why is the academic consensus on the cost of Brexit being ignored?

    Two issues dominate the EU referendum debate: economics and immigration. When it comes to my field of economics, polling evidence suggests that if people became convinced that they would be worse off by leaving, even if it was by quite modest amounts such as £100 a year, the majority voting to remain would be pretty large. Studies by economists at the highly respected London School of Economics, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Treasury all suggest that on average we would be worse off by an amount that is more than ten times that £100 figure.

    This article was published online by The Conversation on May 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Herald Scotland

    Chancellor George Osborne warns on Brexit conspiracy theories as Ed Balls and Sir Vince Cable join EU debate

    "They join a line of observers that range from the OECD to the London School of Economics to the eight former US treasury secretaries to the president of the United States of America, to the prime minister of Japan, to the leaders of Australia and New Zealand," said the Chancellor. "Indeed every member of the G20, every one of our major trading partners and every major international financial institution has been unequivocal that leaving the EU would come at an economic cost."

    This article appeared in the Herald Scotland on 16 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications

    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Financial Times

    Reinsurer provides lifeboat for flood victims

    A paper published in February by the University of Oxford and the London School of Economics said that surface water risks are rising and argued that “it remains unclear if and how Flood Re will be able to cope with future risks and fulfil its tasks”.

    This article appeared in the Financial Times on 16 May 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities, Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Gazata Do Povo

    Salario minimo entra na rota das reformas economicas de Temer

    Em uma entrevista ao jornal Financial Times, o professor Alan Manning, da London School of Economics, diz que em sua visao sobre a historia dos salarios minimos, ele sempre se surpreendeu com como e possivel aumenta-lo sem prejudicar as perspectivas de emprego.
    In an interview with the Financial Times newspaper, professor Alan Manning, of the London School of Economics, says that in his view on the history of the minimum wage, he is always surprised with how you can increase it without harming the prospects of employment.

    This article was published by Gazeta Do Povo (Brazil) on May 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014
    Big ideas: The UK's National Minimum Wage, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 14, Issue 2, Autumn 2009

    Related links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Community Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Mainly Macro blog

    Brexit, immigration and £100

    With so many heavyweights, from Barack Obama to Mark Carney, saying that we will be worse off with Brexit, why are the polls still neck and neck? There seem to me two reasonable explanations: that the tabloid media have a strong influence, and that immigration is a big issue among voters. But perhaps the two are connected, for reasons that will become clear. ... For a very good and simple explanation of the facts about recent EU immigration, see this LSE analysis.

    This article was published online in the Mainly Macro blog on May 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Associated CEP articles
    Immigration from the EU is not a 'necessary evil' and does not drag down wages, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, LSE BrexitVote blog, May 11, 2016

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.05, May 2016
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Wessex FM

    Brexit 'last thing economy needs', warns PM

    ...of England, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, London School of Economics and Confederation of ...

    This broadcast was made by Wessex FM on May 14, 2016
    (no link available)

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy blog

    Immigration from the EU is not a 'necessary evil' and does not drag down wages

    A major argument of the Leave campaign is that Brexit would give the UK more control over the flow of EU immigrants, who have supposedly hurt the jobs and pay of British workers. Research by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen shows that far from EU immigration being a 'necessary evi'l of being in the EU Single Market, immigration is at worst neutral and at best, an economic benefit of EU membership.

    This article was published online by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on May 13, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 13/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Morning Star

    Brexit does reduce the fiscal deficit

    According to various studies at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) of the London School of Economics, Brexit does reduce the fiscal deficit. That would be, according to CEP, the main benefit. The principal cost would be less trade with the European Union. A big uncertainty in these studies is what it means to be outside the EU, since there is no exit agreement. How high would tariffs and other trade barriers be? In a static model, with no changes, for example, in productivity, the CEP analyses predict a cost between 1.3% and 2.6% of GDP.

    Besides trade and fiscal costs, a big factor in the long term is immigration. The UK has historically been a magnet for migrants. The educated ones are attracted by The City; the unskilled ones find jobs at the low end of the services industry. This would remain true, at least in the medium term, inside or outside the EU, but Brexit would presumably reduce entry of EU citizens. European immigrants contribute positively to UK's finances and, perhaps, productivity as well. After immigration and foreign direct investment, and their effect on productivity, are baked in, the cost estimated by CEP rises to 6%-9% of GDP.

    This article was published by the Morning Star on May 13, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 13/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    EU immigration has no negative impact on British wages, jobs or public services, research finds

    EU immigration to the UK has not harmed British peoples' access to jobs, public services or incomes, a major study has concluded. The report, by the London School of Economics, has dispelled a number of 'myths' or misconceptions about the impact of immigration on the UK. It has been published as part of a series of research publications to be released between now and the EU referendum on 23 June. ... Report author Jonathan Wadsworth said: ''The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they use in public services and therefore they help to reduce the budget deficit.''

    This article was published by the Independent on May 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    See also
    May 13, 2016
    Press Reader.com (USA)
    Major new study debunks immigration 'myths'

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    EU migration - the effects on UK jobs and wages

    There is little evidence that more migrants push wages down or unemployment up. Economists from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics say that when they look at the areas with the largest increase in EU immigration, these have not seen the sharpest falls in employment or wages since 2008. Jonathan Wadsworth, one of the authors of the CEP report and a former member of the government's Migration Advisory Committee, says: ''There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, or wages.''

    This article was published by The Financial Times on May 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE Business Review

    Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

    Article by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen
    Many people believe immigration wave has hurt UK workers and think that leaving the EU would make things better. To investigate this we crunched the most recent data and scoured the evidence in our new report. The bottom line is that EU immigration has not significantly harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has made us better off. Far from EU immigration being a 'necessary evil' that we must bear in order to gain access to the greater trade and foreign investment generated by the EU Single Market, immigration is at worst neutral and at best another economic benefit of membership.

    This article was published online by the LSE Business Review blog on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.05, May 2016
    Technical Appendix to 'Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK'
    See the whole series of CEP Brexit Analysis papers here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg

    Osborne says post-Brexit precautions against instability planned

    In another development, the London School of Economic said a reduction in immigration if the country votes to leave wouldn't lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in Britain. ''Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in U.K. living standards caused by the reduction in trade and investment that would result from Brexit,'' the school's Centre for Economic Performance said in a report.

    This article was published online by Bloomberg News on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    EU migrants have no negative effect on UK wages, says LSE

    Research blames 2008 recession for lower real salaries rather than rise in foreign workers, adding they paid more into UK economy than they took out
    The rapid increase in migration from other EU countries has not had an adverse impact on the wages and job prospects of UK-born workers, according to research by the London School of Economics. The study found areas of Britain that have seen the biggest rises in workers from the rest of Europe have not suffered sharper falls in pay or seen a bigger reduction in job opportunities than other parts of the country. The LSE study, part of a series in the buildup to the EU vote on 23 June, also said that goods and services consumed by migrants raised the level of demand in the British economy and created opportunities for UK-born workers.

    Jonathan Wadsworth, one of the co-authors of the report, said:
    ''The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off. So far from EU immigration being a necessary evil that we pay to get access to the greater trade and foreign investment generated by the EU single market, immigration is at worse neutral and at best, another economic benefit.''

    This article was published by The Guardian on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    RT.com

    2008 financial crash drove fall in real wages, not wave of EU migration - LSE study

    Contrary to what some believe, inequality, wages and job opportunities for British-born citizens have not been negatively impacted by the recent surge in migrants from the EU, a new study suggests. Published by the London School of Economics' (LSE) Centre for Economic Performance this week, the research forms part of a broader series of papers due for release ahead of Britain's EU referendum on June 23. This latest study found that regions in Britain that have attracted the biggest spike in workers from other European states have not been hit by sharper drops in pay or eroded job opportunities any more than other UK districts.

    This article was published online by RT.com on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE BrexitVote blog

    Immigration from the EU is not a 'necessary evil' and does not drag down wages

    Article by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen
    A major argument of the campaign to leave the EU is that Brexit would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants from across Europe, who have supposedly hurt the jobs and pay of British workers. Research by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John van Reenen shows that far from EU immigration being a 'necessary evil' to gain access to the greater trade and foreign investment that comes from being in the EU Single Market, immigration is at worst neutral and at best, an economic benefit of EU membership.

    This article was published by the LSE BrexitVote blog on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CEP State of Working Britain blog

    SWOB 10: EU-turn if you want to. Brexit and immigration

    State of Working Britain blog, article posted by Jonathan Wadsworth
    Immigration has for some years been the uppermost worry among the issues thought to be facing Britain in many opinion polls so it - or rather people's perceptions of its extent and its effects - is almost certainly one of the key issues that will influence the upcoming vote on whether to stay or remain in the EU. A new report from the CEP looks into this. Workers have had a rough ride in recent times. Real (inflation adjusted) wages fell by around 10% in the years after the global financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing austerity. Such a sustained fall in pay is unprecedented in British post-war history.

    This article was posted online in the CEP State of Working Britain blog on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    The State of Working Britain blog webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CEP State of Working Britain blog

    SWOB 10: EU-turn if you want to. Brexit and immigration

    State of Working Britain blog, article posted by Jonathan Wadsworth
    Immigration has for some years been the uppermost worry among the issues thought to be facing Britain in many opinion polls so it - or rather people's perceptions of its extent and its effects - is almost certainly one of the key issues that will influence the upcoming vote on whether to stay or remain in the EU. A new report from the CEP looks into this. Workers have had a rough ride in recent times. Real (inflation adjusted) wages fell by around 10% in the years after the global financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing austerity. Such a sustained fall in pay is unprecedented in British post-war history.

    This article was posted online in the CEP State of Working Britain blog on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    The State of Working Britain blog webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg

    Post-Brexit immigration cut 'wouldn't boost living standards'

    A reduction in immigration into the U.K. if the country votes to leave the European Union next month wouldn't lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in Britain, according to research from the London School of Economics.
    ''Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in U.K. living standards caused by the reduction in trade and investment that would result from Brexit,'' the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance said in a report released Wednesday.

    This article was published online by Bloomberg on May 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK, Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series No.5, May 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times Educational Supplement (TES)

    'Phonics, decoding and whole-word recognition are a waste of time unless you then develop children as real readers'

    Learning to decipher the squiggles on the page well enough to pass the key stage 1 Sats does not make you a reader, says author Susan Elkin
    Teaching reading in itself is pointless. All the phonics, decoding skills and whole-word recognition in the world are a waste of time unless you then develop children as real readers. ... The trouble with learning the mechanics - of almost anything - is that if you don't immediately and continuously apply what you've learned, you lose the skills. That is probably why The Centre for Economic Performance recently reported that by the age of 11, having been exposed to phonics at an earlier age makes no difference to a child's reading. It also explains the alarming recent observation from the University of Sheffield that many undergraduates are unable to read whole books. We are failing to develop readers.

    This article was published by the Times Educational Supplement (TES) on May 8, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    "Teaching to Teach" Literacy, Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Martina Viarengo, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1425, April 2016

    Related links
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Sandra McNally webpage
    Education and Skills Programme webpage


    News Posted: 08/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    She the People TV

    The Economics of Brexit with Swati Dhingra

    The economist putting Brexit into context: meet Swati Dhingra
    To take a closer look at the implications of 'Brexit', I asked Assistant Professor Swati Dhingra, of the Department of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics a few questions. Here's our crash course. Of course, I took the opportunity to slip in a question related to to gender equality and academics.

    The interview was filmed and broadcast by She the People TV (India) on May 7, 2016
    Link to broadcast here

    See also:
    Get Topical News
    Brexit perspectives with Swati Dhingra

    Related publications
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here
    See all CEP publications by Swati Dhingra here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 07/05/2016      [Back to the Top]

    loveMONEY.com

    Brexit would cost UK workers up to £5,000 a year - OECD

    ''Leaving the EU would impose a Brexit tax on generations to come,'' says OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria. ''Instead of funding public services, this tax would be a pure deadweight loss, with no economic benefit.''

    This article was published online by loveMONEY.com on April 28, 2016
    Link to article here

    CEP Event details
    CEP Public Lecture on April 27, 2016: 'To Brexit or not to Brexit: a taxing question' given by Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Moderator: Dr Thomas Sampson; Chair: Professor Lord Stern.
    Download the speech here

    Related publications
    The BREXIT 2016 Policy Analysis Series from the Centre for Economic Performance can be found here

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 28/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Channel 4

    News

    Mention of OECD Brexit event hosted by CEP.

    The news item was broadcast by Channel 4 News on April 27, 2016
    Link to news broadcast here

    See also
    BBC Radio 4
    Today
    Angel Gurria (OECD) interviewed. [Link no longer available.]

    Related event
    To Brexit or not to Brexit: a taxing question: Download audio file here
    CEP Public Lecture, 27 April 2016
    Speaker: Angel Gurria; Discussant: Dr Thomas Sampson; Chair: Professor Lord Stern

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Washington Post

    Leaving the European Union could cost every British family a month's pay, new report says

    Less than two months before Britain's historic vote over whether to remain in the European Union, voters remain deeply divided over the decision. But among economists, there is little question that a so-called Brexit would be costly. The latest analysis was released Wednesday morning by the influential Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It estimated the United Kingdom's economy would be 3 percent smaller in 2020 if Britain leaves the E.U., damaging consumer confidence, discouraging business investment and unleashing a new era of uncertainty in the financial center of Europe. The OECD's estimates echo recent analysis by the U.K. Treasury and the London School of Economics on the cost of Brexit. Even the think tank Open Europe, which has been more skeptical of the benefits of the E.U., has forecast a 2.2 percent hit to the U.K. economy by 2030 in its worst-case scenario.

    This article was published by The Washington Post on April 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    CEP Event details
    CEP Public Lecture on April 27, 2016: 'To Brexit or not to Brexit: a taxing question' given by Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Moderator: Dr Thomas Sampson; Chair: Professor Lord Stern.
    Download the speech here

    Related publications
    The BREXIT 2016 Policy Analysis Series from the Centre for Economic Performance can be found here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC News

    Graduates stuck in pay freeze permafrost

    If graduates are feeling like they never get any better off, despite having a degree, maybe that's because they really are getting poorer. The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics has described this stagnation in earnings as unlike anything since the 1920s - with an estimated 9% real-terms drop in average earnings since the recession.

    This article was published by BBC News on April 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Real Wages Updates blog webpage


    News Posted: 27/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The New York Times

    OECD's Gurria-No Economic Upside for UK from Brexit

    The head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Wednesday that he saw no potential benefits for the British economy if voters decide to leave the European Union at a referendum in June. Angel Gurria said a new OECD report showed a hit to British economic growth under all scenarios if the country left the EU compared with a decision to stay in the bloc. ''The best outcome is still worse than remaining and the worst outcomes are very bad indeed,'' he said in a speech at the London School of Economics as the OECD published its report on the impact of a so-called Brexit.

    This article was published online by The New York Times on April 27, 2016
    Link to article here

    CEP Event details
    CEP Public Lecture on April 27, 2016: 'To Brexit or not to Brexit: a taxing question' given by Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Moderator: Dr Thomas Sampson; Chair: Professor Lord Stern.
    Download the speech here

    Related publications
    The BREXIT 2016 Policy Analysis Series from the Centre for Economic Performance can be found here

    Related links
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 27/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Yorkshire Post

    Obama's arrival in UK brings a boost for the Remain campaign

    US PRESIDENT Barack Obama is expected to give a major boost to the Remain campaign tomorrow by backing David Cameron's call for Britain to stay in the European Union.
    Earlier this week the Treasury published analysis suggesting Britain's departure from the European Union would cost households on average £4,300 a year. ... The Treasury forecast suggests Britain's GDP would be cut by 6.2 per cent but economists at the LSEs Centre for Economic Performance put the figure at between 6.3 and 9.5 per cent. Swati Dhingra, from the LSE, said: "The Treasury Report looks at the realistic options the UK will face after Brexit - and the cost of each. It takes a conservative approach to the potential costs."

    This article was published online by The Yorkshire Post on April 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The BREXIT 2016 Policy Analysis Series from the Centre for Economic Performance can be found here

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Parent Herald

    New study shows pregnant women exposed to violence could cause preterm birth and low birthweight

    A new study published by scientists at the University of Leicester suggests that pregnant women who are exposed to violence are more likely to experience preterm birth and even low birthweight for the baby. Researchers based this study on the violence that is happening specifically in Fortaleza, Brazil and its effects on childbirth, as mothers are exposed to crime and hostility on a daily basis.

    The team is led by Professor Marco Manacorda of Queen Mary University of London and Dr. Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner of the University of Leicester. Scientists assigned to this project used mothers who have witnessed a homicide in the area and mothers who also live in the same place without having to see any crime of killing.


    News Posted: 20/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Science Daily

    Exposure to violence during pregnancy increases risk of prematurity and low birthweight

    In a recent paper published in the Journal of Development Economics, researchers Professor Marco Manacorda (Queen Mary University of London) and Dr Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner (University of Leicester) focused on evidence from the exposure of day-to-day violence in Brazil by analysing the birth outcomes of children whose mothers were exposed to local violence, as measured by homicide rates in small Brazilian municipalities and the neighbourhoods of the city of Fortaleza.

    The team estimated the effect of violence on birth outcomes by comparing mothers who were exposed to a homicide during pregnancy to otherwise similar mothers residing in the same area, who happened not to be exposed to homicides.


    News Posted: 18/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The State of Working Britain blog

    SWOB 9. Is it worth it? Are there too many graduates in the UK?

    Article by Jonathan Wadsworth
    Welcome back. The Bank of England has a regular labour market commentary in its quarterly bulletin in which it looks at issues that may influence productivity, wage pressure and hence inflation (if wage pressures are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices). In their latest post there is a chart which suggests that the wage benefits of being a graduate have receded over the past 20 years, which they suggest may be because the supply of graduates has risen faster than demand or that the ''signalling'' value of a degree is more muddied now because so many people have one. Yet the IFS published a study this week saying there were large benefits to being a graduate - though some graduates are more equal than others. So what's going on? Well partly the studies use different data and so focus on different aspects of graduate employment. As such it may be worth looking at some basic facts about education, work and pay.

    This article was published by The State of Working Britain blog on April 18, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    The State of Working Britain blog webpage


    News Posted: 18/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Benefits Canada

    How would Brexit impact the financial industry?

    Whether Britain loses access to the single market depends on the terms of any exit. Under the optimistic scenario, Britain would join the European Economic Area as non-member countries like Norway and Switzerland have done, says Thomas Sampson, assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. Membership in that area provides full single-market access. Under the pessimistic scenario, Britain wouldn't join the European Economic Area. ''Then there would be bilateral negotiations between Britain and the EU over what kind of access Britain has,'' says Sampson.

    This article was published online by Benefits Canada on April 15, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.3, April 2016
    See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here.

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Chicago Tribune Online

    Osborne warns of Brexit cost as leading economies raise concerns

    Research for the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance, published on Friday, estimated that foreign direct investment in Britain could decline by 22 percent if voters choose to leave the EU, reducing incomes by about 3.4 percent. The analysis, carried out by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, found that reduced access to the single market, complexities in coordination between headquarters and local branch offices and uncertainty over trade agreements with the EU would deter investors.

    This article appeared in the Chicago Tribune on 15 April 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.03, April 2016
    Life after Brexit : What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.02, February 2016
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, March 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Hanwei Huang webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times Higher Education

    Cambridge college to fund disadvantaged students' living costs

    Gill Wyness, lecturer in the economics of education at the UCL Institute of Education, said that St John's students would welcome the funding but warned that a move towards support coming from universities rather than the government was a ''worrying prospect''. Dr Wyness said that, since less prestigious universities had less money but more students from poorer backgrounds to support, the likely outcome was increased variation in the value of financial support, and increased income inequality in higher education.

    This article was published online by the Times Higher Education on April 14, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Paying for Higher Education, Gill Wyness, CEP 2015 Election Analysis Paper No.26, March 2015

    Related links
    Gill Wyness webpage
    Education and Skills Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Huffington Post

    Why phones don't belong in schools

    There's no doubt that smartphones have remarkable capabilities which, in theory, could promote student learning. But the truth is that kids - in spite of the best efforts of parents and teachers - use their phones primarily to access digital amusements. ... It's therefore not surprising that a recent London School of Economics study found that schools which ban the use of phones experienced a substantial improvement in student test scores, with the researchers concluding that phones ''can have a negative impact on productivity through distraction''. Researchers found that phones hurt vulnerable students the most. Study co-author Dr. Richard Murphy, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas, reports: ''Allowing phones into schools would be the most damaging to low-achieving and low-income students, exacerbating any existing learning inequalities.''

    This article was published online by The Huffington Post on April 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Ill communication: technology, distraction and student performance', Louis-Philippe Beland and Richard Murphy, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1350, May 2015
    In brief... Phone home: should mobiles be banned in schools?, Louis-Philippe Beland and Richard Murphy. Article in CentrePiece Volume 20, Issue 1, Summer 2015

    Related links
    Richard Murphywebpage
    Education and Skills Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Huffington Post

    Why phones don't belong in schools

    There's no doubt that smartphones have remarkable capabilities which, in theory, could promote student learning. But the truth is that kids - in spite of the best efforts of parents and teachers - use their phones primarily to access digital amusements. ... It's therefore not surprising that a recent London School of Economics study found that schools which ban the use of phones experienced a substantial improvement in student test scores, with the researchers concluding that phones ''can have a negative impact on productivity through distraction''. Researchers found that phones hurt vulnerable students the most. Study co-author Dr. Richard Murphy, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas, reports: ''Allowing phones into schools would be the most damaging to low-achieving and low-income students, exacerbating any existing learning inequalities.''

    This article was published online by The Huffington Post on April 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Ill communication: technology, distraction and student performance', Louis-Philippe Beland and Richard Murphy, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1350, May 2015
    In brief... Phone home: should mobiles be banned in schools?, Louis-Philippe Beland and Richard Murphy. Article in CentrePiece Volume 20, Issue 1, Summer 2015

    Related links
    Richard Murphywebpage
    Education and Skills Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Huffington Post

    Why phones don't belong in schools

    There's no doubt that smartphones have remarkable capabilities which, in theory, could promote student learning. But the truth is that kids - in spite of the best efforts of parents and teachers - use their phones primarily to access digital amusements. ... It's therefore not surprising that a recent London School of Economics study found that schools which ban the use of phones experienced a substantial improvement in student test scores, with the researchers concluding that phones ''can have a negative impact on productivity through distraction''. Researchers found that phones hurt vulnerable students the most. Study co-author Dr. Richard Murphy, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas, reports: ''Allowing phones into schools would be the most damaging to low-achieving and low-income students, exacerbating any existing learning inequalities.''

    This article was published online by The Huffington Post on April 12, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Ill communication: technology, distraction and student performance', Louis-Philippe Beland and Richard Murphy, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1350, May 2015
    In brief... Phone home: should mobiles be banned in schools?, Louis-Philippe Beland and Richard Murphy. Article in CentrePiece Volume 20, Issue 1, Summer 2015

    Related links
    Richard Murphywebpage
    Education and Skills Programme webpage


    News Posted: 12/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Ocnus.net

    It is not just foreign investors, African wealthiest are not paying taxes either

    Gabriel Zucman, from the London School of Economics, estimates that 30% of all African financial wealth is held offshore, amounting to about $500 billion. This means African governments are losing out on roughly $15 billion in taxes from individuals annually, and this does not take into account non-financial wealth.

    This article appeared in Ocnus.net on 10 April 2016. Link to article

    Related links
    Gabriel Zucman webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 10/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Money Week

    Introducing the living wage

    “My view of the history of minimum wages is that we’ve always been surprised about how you seem to be able to push them up without harming job prospects,” Professor Alan Manning of the London School of Economics told the Financial Times recently. “Of course, there would be a point, if you pushed it up too far, that there would be serious adverse effects. We just don’t quite know where that is.”

    This article appeared in Money Week on 10 April 2016 Link to article

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 10/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 4

    Stephen Machin and school academies

    Stephen Machin discusses state schools being turned into academies

    This programme was broadcast on 3 April 2016 Link

    Related Publications
    Academy schools and pupil outcomes Andrew Eyles, Stephen Machin, November 2015 Paper No' CEPCP452

    Related links
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 03/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 4

    Alan Manning interview

    Alan Manning discusses rise of national living wage and the economic risks

    This interview was broadcast on 2 April 2016. Link

    Also on BBC World Service, BBC Wales

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Gulf Times

    Minimum wage raised, critics downplay effect

    The new increased amount compares with an 8.50 euro minimum wage rate in Germany and almost 9.70 euros in France. In Britain, where unemployment is relatively low at around 5%, large wage inequalities persist and London School of Economics professor Alan Manning described the NLW as “more symbolic” than anything else. “It’s significant but I don’t think one should exaggerate its significance,” he said.

    This article appeared in The Gulf Times on 2 April 2016. Link to article

    Also in:
    The Gulf Today
    Jamaica Observer

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Gulf Times

    Minimum wage raised, critics downplay effect

    The new increased amount compares with an 8.50 euro minimum wage rate in Germany and almost 9.70 euros in France. In Britain, where unemployment is relatively low at around 5%, large wage inequalities persist and London School of Economics professor Alan Manning described the NLW as “more symbolic” than anything else. “It’s significant but I don’t think one should exaggerate its significance,” he said.

    This article appeared in The Gulf Times on 2 April 2016. Link to article

    Also in:
    The Gulf Today
    Jamaica Observer

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Korea Times

    Minimum wage hikes emerge as new economic stimulus

    Some economists are cautioning against adverse effects that hiking the minimum wage will have on the economy. "If we raise the minimum wage too high, it will certainly lead to ill effects," said Alan Manning, professor at the London School of Economics. "The problem is that we don't know when such adverse effects will emerge and how." Other researchers agreed that raising the minimum wage has risks that could be as great as its benefits, and it is all but impossible to predict the results.

    This article appeared in The Korea Times on 2 April 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/04/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times Higher Education

    The GDP-Higher Ed link

    Expansion of higher education systems around the world is likely to continue, according to a study that found a strong correlation between opening universities and significantly increased economic growth. An analysis of data on 14,870 higher education institutions in 78 countries over six decades, presented at the annual conference of the Royal Economic Society, reveals that doubling the number of universities in a region results in a 4.7 percent increase in gross domestic product per capita in that region within five years, on average. John Van Reenen, professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Anna Valero, a research economist at LSE's Center for Economic Performance, found that opening universities had a positive impact not only in the ''home'' region but also in neighboring areas.

    This article was published online by the Times Higher Education on March 31, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related article
    Growth multiplier: how university expansion increases national income, Anna Valero and John Van Reenen, LSE British Politics and Policy blog, March 24, 2016

    Related links
    Anna Valero webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 31/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    VOX

    Royal Economic Society's panel on Brexit

    On 23 June, the UK will decide whether or not to leave the EU. While the general population is divided on the issue, the overall consensus among economists at a session on Brexit at the Royal Economic Society's annual conference was that Britons should vote to stay in the EU. This column presents the views of the four panellists at the session on the trade implications and the economic and political economy costs of Brexit.

    The four panellists at the session, titled ''Brexit?'', offered reasons for the apparent consensus (aside from the number of European economists in the room). Brexiteers argue that by leaving the EU, the UK could regain control over its economic policy, and negotiate a new, better trade deal with Europe.

    John Van Reenen (London School of Economics) outlined just how much he thought Brexit would hurt the British economy. Although it would bring some economic gains, in the form of a lower fiscal contribution to the EU (around 0.3% of GDP) and slightly boosted growth from stripping away some regulations, these would not outweigh the economic costs. After accounting for the loss of trade with the EU, lower foreign direct investment and lower immigration, he reckoned that GDP would be between 1.3% and 2.6% of GDP lower (£850 - £1,700 per household in Britain, per year), rising to between 6.3% and 9.5% after accounting for the dynamic effects of Brexit on productivity (Dhingra et al. 2016).

    Next, Swati Dhingra (London School of Economics) delved into the detail of the economic costs associated with Brexit. Immigration boosts productivity by allowing workers to sort efficiently into the right jobs (Di Giovanni et al. 2014), and 3 immigrants from the EEA make a positive contribution to the UK public finances (Dustmann and Frattini 2014), so curbs on immigration would be costly. Fears that immigration hurts employment among natives also seem misplaced (Wadsworth 2015). Bruno et al. (2016) found that joining the EU boosted inward flows of FDI by around 20% once a country joined the EU. On the assumption that leaving the EU would reduce them by as much, and combined with estimates from a cross-country growth regression, Dhingra calculated that households would lose out by at least £453 per year on average from the loss of FDI. Dhingra also explored whether Britain would be able to negotiate better trade deals with non-EU trade blocs outside of the EU.

    This article was published by VOX on March 30, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.02, March 2016
    Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 30/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    cYceon.com

    Brexit fears triggered an avalanche of reports

    UK's exit from the European Union (EU) - the Brexit - could cost the UK economy £100 billion and 950,000 jobs by 2020, pointed out a PwC-made report commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) whose 4 in 5 of its members, who employ ... Another report delivered by the London School of Economics (LSE)'s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) explained that the Brexit would cause a ...

    This article was published online by cYceon.com on March 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards', Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Series No.02, March 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Financial Times

    World watches Britain's 'living wage' experiment

    ''My view of the history of minimum wages is that we've always been surprised about how you seem to be able to push them up without harming job prospects,'' says Alan Manning, a professor at the London School of Economics.

    This article was published by the Financial Times on March 29, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014
    Big ideas: The UK's National Minimum Wage, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 14, Issue 2, Autumn 2014
    All CEP research publications on the National Minimum Wage can be seen here

    Related links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 29/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE British Politics and Policy Blog

    The question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much

    For over two years, a research team at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been studying the likely impact of the UK leaving the European Union. Their latest report focuses on the impact of 'Brexit' through changing trade patterns. Under 'optimistic' assumptions, there is a fall in national income of 1.3 per cent (about £850 per household). Under 'pessimistic' assumptions, this doubles to 2.6 per cent. When the dynamic effects of higher trade costs on productivity are included, the cost may rise to between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent in the long run

    This article was published by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on March 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards,Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.02, March 2016
    Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.01, February 2016

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    State of Working Britain Blog

    SWOB 8: Employment Performance: UK versus the USA. Jury Out

    The bottom two lines, however track the share of all households that are workless - counting the number of individuals in each household not in work using the same definition of employment as on the individual counts. For the UK, this measure of joblessness is 3 times as high as in the mid-1970s. Around 15% (1 in 7) of all working age households are now workless - despite the improvement in the individual based jobless count the workless household rate has improved but mot as much as the individual count. Not so good. And worse than the US where despite a relatively poor individual employment rate the US managed to avoid some - though by no means all - of the concentration of joblessness in households. In other words, the USA has a lower workless household rates despite having fewer jobs per head of population than the UK

    This article appeared in The State of Working Britain Blog on 18 March 2016 Link to article

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    CEP State of Working Britain webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 18/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CityMetric

    Why are so many people still living on flood plains?

    Article by Guy Michaels
    Over the last 30 years, floods have killed more than 500,000 people globally, and displaced about 650m more. In a recent paper published by the Centre for Economic Performance, we examined why so many people are hit by devastating floods. We looked at 53 large floods, which affected more than 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003 to 2008. Each of these floods displaced at least 100,000 people from their homes.

    This article was published online by CityMetric on March 17, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities, Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 17/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    De Tijd (Belgium)

    'We zijn verplicht vluchtelingen te helpen ondanks kosten'

    'We are required to help refugees despite costs'
    De opvang van de vluchtelingen zal de Europese welvaartsstaten niet onder druk zetten. Dat stellen twee topprofessoren in het onderzoek naar migratie, Klaus Zimmermann en Alan Manning, in een lezing in Antwerpen.
    The refugees will not put pressure on the European welfare States. Two top-level professors in research into migration, Klaus Zimmermann and Alan Manning, in a lecture in Antwerp. The professors advocate legal access to the EU.

    This article was published online by De Tijd (Belgium)
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    MIT News

    Power play: study shows how more RandD funding can accelerate the world energy revolution

    Scholars who have read the paper say it makes a valuable contribution to the field. The model ''is stylized but rich enough, I think, to capture some of the main features of the sector,'' explains John Van Reenan, an economist at the London School of Economics. As such, the model uncovers ''some of the complexities of the dynamics in an elegant way,'' he states.

    This article was published by MIT News on March 15, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    les affaires

    Comment diminuer les risques de depression durant votre retraite?

    How to reduce the risk of depression during your retirement?
    The good news of the day, is that I put a hand on a study that deals with precisely this sensitive topic. Entitled Retirement blues, it is written by Gabriel Heller-Sahlgren, a researcher at the London School of Economics (Great Britain). And it provides interesting insights.

    This article was published online by Les affaires on March 14, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Gabriel Heller-Sahlgren webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Sky News

    News

    Mention of 2014 CEP research on immigration and the labour market.

    The programme was broadcast by Sky News on March 11, 2016
    Link to broadcast here

    Related Publications
    Immigration, the European Union and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance Policy Analysis No.15, May 2014

    Related Links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets webpage


    News Posted: 11/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    State of Working Britain Blog

    SWOB 7:International Women's Day: Reasons to be (a little bit) cheerful about women in the UK labour market, 1, 2, 3

    The graph below shows the number of men and women (aged 16-64) by educational attainment. There are now more women educated to degree or further education level than men. Successive waves of undergraduate entries in which women have been in a majority mean that there are now 6 million female graduates in the population and 5.5 million male graduates. Similarly for further education. This can only help narrow pay differentials in the future (assuming pay for education skills is rewarded equally).

    This article appeared on the State of Working Britain Blog on 11 March 2016. Link to article

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    CEP State of Working Britain webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 11/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Epoch Times

    Why are so many people still living in flood-prone cities?

    Article by Guy Michaels
    Over the last 30 years, floods have killed more than 500,000 people globally, and displaced about 650 million more. In a recent paper published by the Centre for Economic Performance, we examined why so many people are hit by devastating floods. We looked at 53 large floods, which affected more than 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003 to 2008. Each of these floods displaced at least 100,000 people from their homes.

    This article was published online by the Epoch Times on March 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities, Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 09/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC World Service Radio - The Inquiry

    Why are wages so low?

    John Van Reenen interviewed, giving his expert opinion on falling income levels.

    This interview was broadcast by the BBC World Service programme 'The Inquiry' on March 8, 2016
    Link to interview here

    Related links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 08/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Wage growth, the fatal flaw in George Osborne's economic storyline

    David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin, in a report for the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, don't rule out a return to 4%-plus wage rises at some point. It was the norm before the 2008 banking crash and could be the average again. And there is an argument that wages must recover as long as unemployment keeps falling and vacancies pushes to new highs.

    This article was published by The Guardian on March 6, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related Publications
    The Current 2% UK Wage Growth Norm, David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin, CEP Real Wages Updates Paper No. RWU005, March 2016

    Related Links
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 06/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    U.S. News and World Report

    Arguments and allegations are flying as Britons grapple with how to vote in a June 23 referendum on whether to stay in the European Union or walk away

    The London School of Economics' Center for Economic Policy[sic] has calculated that, even if trade barriers with other European countries do not significantly increase, per capita income in Britain will fall by between 1.1 percent and 3.1 percent after a Brexit. ''The possibility of trading more with the rest of the world can't offset the loss of trade with the EU,'' said the center's Thomas Sampson.

    This article was published by U.S. News & World Report on March 5, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016
    Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, CEP 2015 Election Analysis No.22, March 2015

    Related links
    Swati Dhingra webpage
    Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
    Thomas Sampson webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 05/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    Transport infrastructure: Life in the slow lane

    Sometimes there is no option but to build big. On many London Underground lines—which already run as many as 30 trains an hour—it is hard to make incremental improvements; the only sensible way to create new capacity is to build a new line, as the government is doing now with Crossrail, an east-to-west London link. Still, it has mostly ignored the recommendations of the Eddington review, says John Van Reenen of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, instead focusing its energy on larger, shinier projects.

    This article appeared in the Economist on 5 March 2016. Link to article

    Related Links
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 05/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Nigeria News Shafaqna

    World: CEP Discussion Paper No 1398, December 2015: Flooded Cities

    Source: London School of Economics and Political Science Country: World Abstract Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people.

    This article was published by the Nigeria News Shafaqna on March 3, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities, Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 03/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Nigeria News Shafaqna

    World: CEP Discussion Paper No 1398, December 2015: Flooded Cities

    Source: London School of Economics and Political Science Country: World Abstract Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people.

    This article was published by the Nigeria News Shafaqna on March 3, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities, Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 03/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Daily News (USA)

    Why so many people are still living in high-risk flood areas

    In a recent paper published by the Centre for Economic Performance, we examined why so many people are hit by devastating floods. We looked at 53 large floods, which affected more than 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003 to 2008. Each of these floods displaced at least 100,000 people from their homes.

    This article was published by Daily News (USA) on March 3, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities, Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 03/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Prevention Web

    Flooded Cities

    Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No. 1398:
    This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003 - 2008. The authors conduct their analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. They find that low elevation areas are about 3 - 4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometre.

    This article appeared on Prevention Web on 3 March 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities ,Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398 December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 03/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Royal Economic Society - Media Briefings

    Mobile phones amplify political unrest in times of crisis: evidence from across Africa

    The growing use of mobile phones in Africa leads to more political protests during recessions and periods of national crisis, according to research by Professor Marco Manacorda and Dr Andrea Tesei to be presented at the Royal Economic Society's annual conference in Brighton in March 2016.
    The study, published by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, is the first systematically to test the theory that mobile phones act as catalysts for political unrest. The researchers from Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) find that when a country undergoes a serious recession - a four percentage point contraction - areas of the country with mobile phone coverage protest 16% more than areas without phone coverage.

    This article was published online by The Royal Economic Society as a Media Briefing on March 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa', Marco Manacorda and Andrea Tesei, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1419, March 2016

    Related links
    Marco Manacorda webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CEP State of Working Britain blog

    SWOB 6: Record employment in the UK? Well yes but....

    In the latest State of Working Britain blog, editor Professor Jonathan Wadsworth writes:
    Common Mis-Perceptions About Recent UK Labour Market Performance No 1. A Record number of people in work
    The opening sentence of the latest DWP press release on the state of the labour market trumpets that ''there are a record 31.4 million people in work''. While this is true, it should not be taken as a measure of employment performance (and beware of anyone who claims it is) for the simple fact that the UK population is also at a record high and growing. Just as it would not make sense to compare the sizes of the workforce in Norway and Spain and conclude that Spain was doing better simply because it has more people in work. The respective sizes of the populations make such a comparison of employment levels meaningless.

    This article was published in the State of Working Britain blog on March 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    CEP State of Working Britain webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Conversation

    Why are so many people still living in flood-prone cities?

    Article by Guy Michaels
    Over the last 30 years, floods have killed more than 500,000 people globally, and displaced about 650m more. In a recent paper published by the Centre for Economic Performance, we examined why so many people are hit by devastating floods. We looked at 53 large floods, which affected more than 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003 to 2008. Each of these floods displaced at least 100,000 people from their homes.

    This article was published by The Conversation blog on March 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities,Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/03/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Times of India

    UK migration: six myths about immigration debunked as latest figures show fall in non-EU arrivals

    A study by University College London estimated that migrants coming to the UK since 2000 have been 43 per cent less likely to claim benefits or tax credits compared to the British-born workforce. ''Immigrants, especially in recent years, tend to be younger and better educated than the UK-born and less likely to be unemployed,'' the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE concluded in a separate report.

    This article was published by The Times of India on February 26, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, 2015 Centre for Economic Performance Election Analysis No.19, February 2015

    Related Links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 26/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The National

    Science has embraced the search for happiness

    In the 1990s the dream of measuring happiness enjoyed a revival. The proliferation of smartphones allowed researchers to develop apps that would, for the first time, allow them to collect real-time reports of happiness from the masses. London School of Economics got involved in this, referring to its own happiness measuring app as an hedonimeter. We now have something called hedonometer 2.0, which aims to measure happiness based on the emotive content of Twitter posts. According to hedonometer 2.0, the happiest state in the US last week was Hawaii. The least happy? Oregon.

    This article was published online by The National(UAE) on February 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1 Summer 2013
    'Are you happy while you work?', Alex Bryson and George MacKerron, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187, February 2013

    Related links
    Alex Bryson, CEP Alumni webpage
    News Posted: 21/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    LSE News and Media

    Equity crowdfunding: a new model for financing entrepreneurship

    According to CEP's researchers writing in the latest issue of CentrePiece, its departmental magazine, crowdfunding ''serves as a robust source of alternative entrepreneurial finance which has operated in a stable and predictable manner'' in its infancy.

    This press release was published online by LSE's News and Media on February 18, 2016
    Link to the release here

    See also:
    Equity Crowdfunding News
    Equity crowdfunding: a new model for financing entrepreneurship - 02-2016 - News archive - News - News and Media - Home
    lse.ac.uk - Researchers from LSE.s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) have demonstrated the benefits of equity crowdfunding as a robust alternative for investors and entrepreneurs. CEP has analysed invest ...
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Equity crowdfunding: a new model for financing entrepreneurship?, Saul Estrin and Susanna Khavul. Article in CentrePiece Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16

    Related links
    Saul Estrin webpage
    Susanna Khavul webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 18/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Manufacturer

    Automation and Robotics: reach out and touch the future

    In the period 1993-2007, manufacturing employment in this country fell by around 55%, while the use of robots rose by around 80%. By contrast, Germany’s deployment of robots rose by around 165% and its manufacturing employment declined by less than 20%, according to Graetz & Michaels, Robots at Work 2015.


    News Posted: 15/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The State of Working Britain - blog

    Are immigrants taking all the new jobs?

    Latest State of Working Britain blog by Jonathan Wadsworth

    The central message is that it would be wrong to conclude from analysis of the net change in employment that migrants take all new jobs. Rather the net change is mostly a reflection of the changing populations in the two groups, as it would be if any group (red-heads, ice cream eaters etc) grew relative to others.

    This blog post was published online on the State of Working Britain blog on February 9, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    The State of Working Britain blog webpage


    News Posted: 09/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Telegraph

    Britain lags rivals in robots - but automating the workplace may not mean huge job losses

    The opportunity to automjate UK workplaces does not necessarily mean huge unemployment and lower pay as machines take over. The claims came in presentations ahead of the Automatica Robotics Trade Show, and aimed to highlight the changes to industry and scoiety the new technology will present. ''Robots can 'crowd out' people in lower-skilled jobs,'' said Guy Michaels, an economics professor at the LondonSchool of Economics who has studied the likely impact of robots. However, this process has been going on for hundreds of years with technology taking over tasks from humans but new roles develop as advances are made and new fields open up.

    This article was published by The Telegraph on February 8, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335 March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 08/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Conversation

    Why raising the minimum wage isn't the best way to reduce inequality

    Other new research, however, has put that conclusion in doubt. Perhaps the most conclusive reassessment comes from economists David Autor, Alan Manning and Christopher Smith earlier this year. Using many more years of microdata from the CPS, as well as a different statistical approach, they found that the minimum wage explains at most 30 percent to 40 percent of the rise in wage inequality among the lowest earners.

    This article appeared on The Conversation on February 5, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Community Programme webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 05/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    London can't keep sucking up the nation's culture for itself

    A study by Sussex University and the London School of Economics (LSE) has come up with a list of the 33 things that make people happy. Yes, 33. If you’re the kind of person who finds round numbers cheering, this list is not for you. Researchers asked 20,000 people to download an app that buzzed them at various times of day and asked them to record their “happiness levels” and what they were doing at the time; they received more than a million responses.

    This article appeared in the Independent on 4 February 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1 Summer 2013
    'Are you happy while you work?', Alex Bryson and George MacKerron, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187 February 2013

    Related Links
    CEP Alumni webpage
    News Posted: 04/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Times of India

    Here's why people feel miserable while at work

    The app sporadically asked users questions such as how they are feeling, where they are and what they are doing. Mappiness users received a 'ding' on their smartphone at random times of the day, prompting them to complete a short survey, during which they ranked their well-being using a sliding scale. The researchers found that British people experience a 7-8 per cent drop in happiness while at work, compared to doing activities outside of work."Mappiness is interesting because it quizzes people in the moment, before they get a chance to reach for their rose-tinted glasses," said economist George MacKerron from University of Sussex who created the app.

    This article appeared in Times of India on 4 February 2016 Link to article

    Related publications
    Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1 Summer 2013
    'Are you happy while you work?' Alex Bryson and George MacKerron, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187, February 2013

    Related Links
    CEP Alumni webpage
    News Posted: 04/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Money web (South Africa)

    Academics in favour of minimum wages

    Alan Manning from the London School of Economics said developed countries were under increasing pressure to introduce minimum wages, with 26 out of 34 OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries having them compared to 17 out of 30 in 1998. In the UK, where the national minimum wage was close to the equivalent of R150 per hour – the NMW was voted most successful policy of last 30 years.

    This article appeared in Money Web on 3 February 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics Alan Manning, May 2014 Paper No' CEPCP419

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Labour Markets webpage
    News Posted: 03/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Yahoo

    Press Conference: How Robots Will Revolutionize Factories of the Future

    Experts from the world's largest robotics + automation fair AUTOMATICA, the London School of Economics (LSE) and the German Engineering Association VDMA will present their vision of how robotics + automation are reshaping industry at a press conference on Monday, 8th February 2016 (11:00 am - 1:00 pm). The conference will be held at the Institute of Directors (IoD, 116 Pall Mall ) in London by AUTOMATICA. The Speakers
    Dr. Martin Lechner, New Technologies expert, AUTOMATICA, Messe Muenchen
    Prof. Guy Michaels, London School of Economics

    This article appeared on Yahoo on 2 February 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335 March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    News Posted: 02/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Post

    Minimum wage a 'blunt tool'

    Alan Manning from the London School of Economics said there was strong evidence that higher levels of minimum wages were associated with lower levels of wage inequality. He, however, warned while effective, the system was a blunt instrument for addressing household poverty.

    This article appeared in The Post on 2 February 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    Minimum wages: the economics and the politics Alan Manning, May 2014 Paper No' CEPCP419

    Related Links
    Alan Manning webpage
    Labour Markets webpage
    News Posted: 02/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Guardian

    Bank's forecasts will be vindicated, like stopped clock is right twice a day

    [David] Blanchflower and [Stephen] Machin argue labour market must tighten further before pay growth picks up, something Bank of England consistently fails to acknowledge.

    This article was published by The Guardian on February 2, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Slowing UK Wage Growth, David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin, Centre for Economic Performance Real Wages Update blog, February 2016

    Related links
    Stephen Machin webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    CEP Real Wages Update blog webpage


    News Posted: 02/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The State of Working Britain - blog

    Is the rise in low skilled jobs holding back wage growth?

    Article by Jonathan Wadsworth
    Some commentators have suggested that the latest upswing has been characterised by a greater share of low skilled jobs in the recovery compared to previous upturns. If so then we can all blame low skilled firms and/or the low skilled for poor productivity growth.

    This article was published online by The State of Working Britain blog on February 2, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    The State of Working Britain blog webpage


    News Posted: 02/02/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Entrepreneur Online

    The 7 Traits of Successful Entrepreneurs

    Entrepreneurs exist to defy conventional wisdom. A survey last year by Ross Levine of the University of California, Berkeley, and Yona Rubinstein of the London School of Economics found that among incorporated entrepreneurs, a combination of "smarts" and "aggressive, illicit, risk-taking activities" is a characteristic mix.

    This article appeared in Entrepeneur Online on 28 January 2016. Link to article

    Related Publications
    Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Does it Pay? Ross Levine, Yona Rubinstein, August 2013 Paper No' CEPDP1237

    Related Links
    Yona Rubinstein webpage
    Growth webpage
    News Posted: 28/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    CVER / OECD Report Launch

    Building Skills for All: Review of England

    Report Launch - Building Skills for All

    Review of England


    On 28 January 2016 we hosted the launch of the OECD report on adult skills in England, Building Skills for All, Review of England.

    In England there are around nine million people with low literacy or numeracy skills or both. These nine million people might, for example, struggle to estimate how much petrol is left in the petrol tank from a sight of the gauge, or not be able to fully understand instructions on a bottle of aspirin. While basic skills of older people in England compare reasonably well with skills of their counterparts in other countries, younger people are lagging badly behind. This report was commissioned to offer an independent assessment of what could be behind these issues and to recommend some potential policy solutions.

    Speakers included: Frank Bowley (Deputy Director, Skills Policy Analysis, BIS), Sandra McNally (Director, CVER) and report authors

     


    News Posted: 28/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The State of Working Britain - blog

    Are we there yet? Full employment in the UK

    In the first of a new blog from LSE's Centre for Economic Performance, Jonathan Wadsworth comments on the issue of full employment in the UK.

    This article was published online by the CEP's The State of Working Britain blog on January 26, 2016
    Link to the article here

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 26/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Vox

    Do floods shift economic activity to safer areas?

    Article by Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch
    During the past couple of months alone, floods have displaced 100,000 people or more in Kenya, in Paraguay and Uruguay, and in India, as well as more than 50,000 people in the UK. And rising sea levels due to climate change loom. This column assesses the risk and the challenges for policymakers. It details the effects of flooding in cities around the world, showing that economic activity is concentrated in low-elevation urban areas, despite their much greater exposure to flooding. And worryingly, economic activity tends to return to flood-prone low-lying areas rather than relocating.

    This blog article was published online by Vox on January 21, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Guardian

    Corrections and clarifications

    A report (Pay growth predicted to stall at 2% as number of skilled workers rises, 30 December, page 20) said that over the past year almost three-quarters of new jobs created went to non-UK nationals, according to official figures - 326,000 compared with 122,000 jobs taken by UK workers. The ONS estimates relate to the number of people in employment, not to the number of jobs. The London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance has found that immigrants do not account for a majority of new jobs, but that ''the immigrant share in new jobs is - and always has been - broadly the same as the share of immigrants in the working age population''.

    This online article was published by the Guardian on January 20, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related Publications
    Immigration and the UK Labour Market by Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analyses Series, Paper No.19, February 2015

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 20/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Petition urging Theresa May to scrap £35,000 threshold for non-EU migrants soars past 50,000 signatures

    “These migrants also, on average, make a substantial net contribution to the public finances,” said Professor David Metcalf, the committee’s chairman.

    This article appeared in the Independent on 18 January 2016. Link to article

    Related Links
    David Metcalf webpage
    Labour Markets webpage
    News Posted: 18/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Independent

    Petition urging Theresa May to scrap £35,000 threshold for non-EU migrants soars past 50,000 signatures

    “These migrants also, on average, make a substantial net contribution to the public finances,” said Professor David Metcalf, the committee’s chairman.

    This article appeared in the Independent on 18 January 2016. Link to article

    Related Links
    David Metcalf webpage
    Labour Markets webpage
    News Posted: 18/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Grocer

    Sunday trading: what's the case for longer hours?

    Results from the Centre for Economic Performance study in March 2015 suggest deregulation of Sunday trading laws has a considerable positive impact on employment, which stems from new firms being able to enter the market and job creation in existing firms, too. It also found that deregulation increased expenditure as a whole.

    This article was published in The Grocer on January 16, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Evaluating the Impact of Sunday Trading Deregulation', Christos Genakos and Svetoslav Danchev, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1336, March 2015

    Related links
    Christos Genakos webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    City A.M.

    Flood-o-nomics: why flooding will remain a problem

    Article by Guy Michaels
    In a new study published by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), we examine why so many people are hit by floods year after year. In particular, we ask whether urban populations respond to massive floods by moving to safer areas. We study the effects of more than 50 large floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries from 2003 to 2008.

    This article was published by City A.M. on January 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities,Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Thejournal.ie

    One way to help stop floods? Don't let developers build on flood plains

    Dr Tom McDermott of the School of Economics and the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork has been working with colleagues from the London School of Economics and Oxford University to examine overpopulation in flood-prone locations.

    This article was published online by Thejournal.ie on January 11, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 11/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Irish Examiner

    Experts back tighter restrictions for building on flood-prone plains

    Climate change experts have backed calls for tighter planning restrictions to prevent new building on flood plains after the worst national flooding crisis in a generation. After a major study of city floods around the world, academics at University College Cork, the London School of Economics, and Oxford University found no evidence that cities, their economic hubs, or large population centres relocate after large floods. Full economic activity has usually resumed in the flood-prone zones, usually within a year, they said. The study also warned that modern cities with high population concentrations in low-lying areas face greater flood risk as sea levels rise and extreme rainfall episodes become more frequent.

    This article was published online by the Irish Examiner on January 7, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 07/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Independent.ie (Ireland)

    Frontline workers continue to toil full month after the first rains fell

    New research co-authored by Dr Tom McDermott of the School of Economics and the Environmental Research Institute at UCC finds that in the past 30 years, more than 500,000 people have been killed by floods and more than 650 million displaced globally.

    This article appeared in the Independent.ie on 6 January 2016 Link to article

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 06/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio York

    News

    Guy Michaels discusses his study on flooding in the UK

    This programme was broadcast on 6 January 2016 on BBC Radio York Link

    Also on:
    BBC Radio Humberside, BBC Radio Nottingham, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cumbria, BBC Radio Scotland, BBC Radio Wiltshire and BBC Radio Cornwall

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 06/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    Phil Williams show

    Guy Michaels discusses his study of the economic impact of floods and likelihood of people moving from flooding areas.

    The interview was broadcast by BBC Radio 5 Live on January 5, 2016
    Link to interview here
    (43 mins in)

    Related publications
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 05/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Personnel Today

    Linking work and health: the What Works Centre for Wellbeing

    Cross-cutting capabilities: This project is being led by Professor Lord Richard Layard of the London School of Economics and will assess and develop methods of understanding how policy and practice can affect wellbeing. It will look at the effect of different factors on wellbeing, analyse the impact of wellbeing on other outcomes and develop a framework for cost effectiveness analysis with wellbeing as the measure of benefit. It will also carry out a “life course” analysis, looking at how important early life is to wellbeing in later years.

    This article appeared on Personnel Today on 5 January 2016 Link to article

    Related Links
    Richard Layard webpage
    Wellbeing webpage
    News Posted: 05/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Personnel Today

    Linking work and health: the What Works Centre for Wellbeing

    Cross-cutting capabilities: This project is being led by Professor Lord Richard Layard of the London School of Economics and will assess and develop methods of understanding how policy and practice can affect wellbeing. It will look at the effect of different factors on wellbeing, analyse the impact of wellbeing on other outcomes and develop a framework for cost effectiveness analysis with wellbeing as the measure of benefit. It will also carry out a “life course” analysis, looking at how important early life is to wellbeing in later years.

    This article appeared on Personnel Today on 5 January 2016 Link to article

    Related Links
    Richard Layard webpage
    Wellbeing webpage
    News Posted: 05/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Bloomberg

    Better Building Rules Would Help U.K.'s Flooding Woes, CEP Says

    Tighter construction restrictions and incentives to build outside flood-prone areas would minimize damage to the U.K. economy from heavy rain and rising water levels, according to the Centre for Economic Performance. Thousands of families across northern England and Scotland have evacuated their homes or been left without power in recent weeks, while KPMG LLP estimated the economic loss in December was more than 5 billion pounds ($7.3 billion). While low-lying areas are more likely to be hit by large-scale floods, businesses and homes don’t tend to move to safer locations, according to the CEP’s analysis of data from 2003 to 2008.

    This article appeared in Bloomberg on 5 January 2016. Link to article

    Related publications
    Flooded Cities Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage
    News Posted: 05/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    The Financial Times

    Subsidies encourage housebuilding on floodplains, report finds

    The UK taxpayer is left to pick up the cost of flooding because housebuilders do not contribute enough when building homes, giving them an incentive to build on floodplains, according to research. Flooding costs between 2 and 8 per cent of an area's economic activity in the year after a flood, the research for the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance found.

    This article was published by The Financial Times on January 1, 2016
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015

    Related links
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Ferdinand Rauch webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage
    Trade Programme webpage


    News Posted: 01/01/2016      [Back to the Top]

    Health Affairs Blog

    Making sense of price and quantity variations in U.S. health care

    A recent study by Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor, and John Van Reenen has documented the remarkable variations across regions and age groups, and within regions, in U.S. health care spending. Previously, the Dartmouth Atlas project studied variations using Medicare data on people over 65, and the 2013 Institute of Medicine study showed no association between spending and quality in both over-65 Medicare and under-65 private insurance markets.

    This article was published online by the Health Affairs Blog on December 30, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'The Price Ain't Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured', Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1395, December 2015

    Related links
    Zack Cooper webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 30/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    Western Mail (Cardiff)

    These boots were made for walking

    ...gym membership for some good walking shoes. New research from the London School of Economics and Political ...

    This article was published by the Western Mail (Cardiff) on December 21, 2015
    [No link available.]

    Related Links
    Grace Lordan webpage
    Wellbeing Programme webpage


    News Posted: 21/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    Health Management.org

    Lowest Hospital Spending: Not Where You Think

    Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, Yale University, University of Pennsylvania and the London School of Economics analysed the real prices that hospitals negotiate with private insurers. They found that hospitals that spend less on Medicare do not necessarily spend less on healthcare overall. The researchers analysed 92 billion health insurance claims from 88 million people that were insured by the three largest companies: Aetna, Humana and UnitedHealthcare.

    This article appeared in Health Management.org on 21 December 2015. Link to artilce

    Related publications
    The Price Ain't Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured, Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1395, December 2015

    Related links
    Zack Cooper webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage
    News Posted: 21/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    Nursing Times

    Is there a national shortage of nurses? Which specialties are mainly affected?

    Article by David Metcalf
    Would it be sensible to fill vacancies by attracting extra nurses from outside of the EU? These are the main questions the home secretary asked the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to examine earlier this year. The MAC will report in February 2016. The background to this commission is as follows. The MAC analysed NHS nurse numbers in late 2014, reported to the government at the end of January 2015 and published its report in February. The Centre for Workforce Intelligence (CfWI), which distils NHS evidence on behalf of the Department of Health, did not recommend placing adult nurses on the Shortage Occupation List (SOL). Occupations on the SOL get priority for skilled non-EU immigration.

    This article was published in Nursing Times on December 16, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related links
    David Metcalf webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 16/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    infoPLC.net (Spain)

    Nos quitara el empleo un robot?

    Robots at work is a study by Georg Graetz of the University of Uppsala in Sweden and Guy Michaels at the London School of Economics that analyzes statistics from 1993 until 2007 of 14 industries in 17 developed countries. According to the study, industrial robots have had a ''substantial'' contribution to productivity and growth. The research also finds that fears that robots are destroying jobs on a large scale are unfounded, although there is evidence that they can lead to a reduction of hours of work for low specialization workers.

    This article was published online by infoPLC.net (Spain) on December 15, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    Modern Healthcare

    Data suggest hospital consolidation drives higher prices for privately insured

    Commercial health plans that cover workplace benefits for millions of Americans pay higher prices to hospitals that have little or no competition, according to a new study that raises questions about how to slow U.S. health spending amid a wave of consolidation. In a study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, researchers analyzed health spending across multiple U.S. markets and compared the numbers for Medicare with claims data for 88 million patients with employer-sponsored health insurance.

    This article was published online by Modern Healthcare on December 15, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    'The Price Ain't Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured', Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1395, December 2015

    Related links
    Zack Cooper webpage
    John Van Reenen webpage
    Growth Programme webpage


    News Posted: 15/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    El Pais (Spain)

    La digitalización y la robotización no aparecen en el PIB

    Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels (2014) teachers at the University of Uppsala (Sweden) and the LSE, have written a study called 'Robots at Work' that has examined the effects of the use of robots in 14 manufacturing sectors, services and even agriculture and concludes that robots increase the productivity of labour without effecting so much wages.

    This article was published online by El Pais (Spain) on December 14, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    Policy Network

    Mind the gap: capital and labour in the digital economy

    A recent study by Guy Michaels and Georg Graetz shows that robots might not drive people out of work. Instead they raise productivity which reduces the prices of goods and services. Lower prices increase demand to which firms react by hiring new workers. Although robots might not destroy jobs overall, there are strong indications that technology profoundly changes the structure of labour markets.

    This article was published online by Policy Network on December 14, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related publications
    Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
    'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335, March 2015

    Related Links
    Georg Graetz webpage
    Guy Michaels webpage
    Labour Markets Programme webpage


    News Posted: 14/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    The Economist

    A notch looser

    The new proposals would probably affect just a few hundred hectares, says Paul Cheshire of the London School of Economics—“a spit in the ocean”. But it is nonetheless significant that the government is sanctioning any kind of review of the green-belt policy, he says.

    This article appeared in the Economist on 11 December 2015. Link to artilce

    Related Publications
    Turning houses into gold: the failure of British planning, Paul Cheshire. Article in CentrePiece Volume 19, Issue 1, Summer 2014

    Related links
    Paul Cheshire webpage
    Urban Programme webpage
    News Posted: 11/12/2015      [Back to the Top]

    The Times

    Corrections and Clarifications: December 10, 2015

    We said in reporting official Labour Market Statistics that ''Three in four new jobs go to migrants from EU countries'' (News, Nov 12). This was wrong. The Office for National Statistics has stated that its estimates of employment by nationality and country of birth relate to the number of people in employment rather than the number of jobs. Changes therefore show net changes in the number of people employed, not the proportion of new jobs that have been filled by UK and non-UK workers. Analysis of statistics by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance has consistently found that immigrants do not account for a majority of new jobs, and that the immigrant share in new jobs is broadly the same as the share of immigrants in the working age population. We are happy to make this clear.

    This article was published in The Times on December 10, 2015
    Link to article here

    Related Publications
    Immigration and the UK Labour Market, Jonathan Wadsworth, CEP 2015 Election Analyses No. 19, February 2015

    Related links
    Jonathan Wadsworth we